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Media/Telecom Service the World of Pay TV Media/Telecom Service The world of pay TV Pay TV: Important to both media and telecom industries As part of the media industry’s value chain, pay-TV operators provide broadcast services Overweight (Maintain) and distribute content. Thanks to their monthly (fixed-sum) subscription systems, pay- TV service providers enjoy steady cash flows, just as telecom companies (which use Industry Report similar fee structures) do. The pay TV business model, therefore, helps ensure stability April 23, 2015 amid the media industry’s rapid changes. We have noted the growing importance of media businesses within the telecom service Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. industry. Faced with stagnant population growth, domestic media and telecom firms have had to actively diversify their subscriber-based businesses to ensure additional [Telecom Service / Media] growth. Fortunately, the switch from analog to digital broadcasting has allowed such firms to diversify their sources of revenue, including VOD revenue from pay-TV Jee-hyun Moon +822-768-3615 subscribers, and N-screen subscription and mobile data revenue from wireless [email protected] subscribers. Time for a turnaround In Korea, pay-TV service providers’ combined net profit has trended down steadily for the past three years, as intense competition for new subscribers amid the transition to digital broadcasting has resulted in lower ARPU and higher costs. However, it is worth remembering that in the US, pay-TV operators—whose ARPU increased only modestly during the digital conversion—saw a sharp increase in ARPU and accelerated cash flow after the digital transition ended and the industry consolidated via M&As. We believe the Korean pay-TV industry has reached a positive inflection point. The digital transition is coming to an end, and corporate M&As and policy support could provide a tailwind for the industry, helping to ease market competition. Moreover, business models are diversifying, and earnings are anticipated to expand YoY on a low base of comparison (due to one-off expenses recognized last year). Maintain Overweight; Key recommendations are SK Telecom and KT Skylife We maintain our Overweight stance on media and telecom services. Our key recommendations are SK Telecom (SKT) and KT Skylife, which stand to benefit, respectively, from growing personalization and improving picture quality in TV broadcasts, and which also offer attractive dividends. Considering SKT’s plan to own SK Broadband in its entirety, mobile momentum is likely to drive its media business. As for KT Skylife, we raise our target price in light of expected positive changes in the business environment after uncertainties lift. We also raise our target price for KTH and Nasmedia, which are aiding the expansion of the pay-TV business. Market value of pay-TV operators expected to increase, backed by improving domestic pay-TV business environment and earnings recovery (Wbn) Major pay-TV operators' combined net profit (L) (Wbn) 250 Major pay-TV operators' combined market cap (R) 4,500 - Digital conversion nearing end - Slowing fall in ARPU - Removal of one-off costs 200 - More room for dividends with FCF 4,000 recovery 150 3,500 - Depreciation on digital conversion 100 - Marketing expenses 3,000 - Fall in ARPU with expansion of bundled products - KT Skylife: One-off lawsuit cost - CJ HelloVision: Loss on disposable assets 50 2,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F Notes: SK Broadband, CJ HelloVision, and KT Skylife combined Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. April 23, 2015 Media/Telecom Service CONTENTS Pay TV set to turn around 3 1. The most stable business model in the media space 3 2. Investment strategy: Time to consider overweighting pay-TV service providers 5 Industry trends at home and abroad 6 1. Slowly changing market 6 2. Consolidation: Still too many players 8 3. Switch to digital broadcasting nearing completion 11 4. Platform revenue: Leveraging tool 13 5. Regulatory and policy issues 15 Domestic market outlook 17 1. Consolidation: Four conglomerates to be dominant 17 2. Digital broadcasting: Mobile is key 19 3. Business models: Diversification 22 4. Expectations for policy tailwinds 26 5. Potential expansion of foreign capital 27 Valuation 28 1. Valuation gap with global peers narrowing 28 2. Expectations for dividends 29 Key Recommendations 30 SK Telecom (017670 KS) 31 KT Skylife (053210 KS) 39 CJ HelloVision (037560 KS) 44 KT (030200 KS) 48 LG Uplus (032640 KS) 52 KT Hitel (036030 KQ) 56 Nasmedia (089600 KQ) 59 KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 KDB Daewoo Securities Research April 23, 2015 Media/Telecom Service Pay TV set to turn around 1. The most stable business model in the media space (1) Digital conversion bringing new opportunities Pay TV offers the most stable business model in the media segment. Pay-TV operators use infrastructure (cable or internet networks) and distribution platforms to deliver content to viewers. Monthly subscription systems (using fixed-term contracts) allow pay-TV operators to enjoy stable revenue irrespective of changes in market conditions (a characteristic they share with telecom service providers). Currently, most monthly subscribers tend to use their subscriptions in combination with pay-per- view (PPV). In the analog age, monthly subscriptions were the dominant source of revenue and business growth, along with fees charged to home-shopping companies and commissions collected from advertisers. Now, the transition to digital broadcasting is offering more business opportunities to pay-TV service providers. Besides monthly subscriptions, VOD revenue is growing (up to 20% of total broadcast revenue for CJ HelloVision last year). Increasingly, VOD platforms are generating revenue from related advertising, and there has also been a rise in T-commerce (data broadcasting–based transactions). Alongside this business diversification, domestic pay-TV stocks are rebounding gradually after the sluggishness caused by the digital transition and intensified competition. Figure 1. Relative share performances of global pay-TV operators: Korea has just joined the trend (1/2014=100) CJ HelloVision (KR) KT Skylife (KR) 140 Charter (US) Time Warner Cable (US) Comcast (US) DirecTV (US) Dish Network (US) Sky Perfect JSAT (JP) 120 100 80 60 40 1/14 3/14 5/14 7/14 9/14 11/14 1/15 3/15 Source: Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 2. Domestic pay-TV value chain and business model Production/ Service/distribution Device programming Cost Revenue Pay TV Content provider Program - Cable SOs Service Subscriber - Terrestrial usage fee - Satellite TV operators usage fee - Program provider - IPTV operators (telcos) - OTT operators Revenue Revenue Trans- Ad mission costs fees Home shopping/ Advertisers T-commerce operators Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 KDB Daewoo Securities Research April 23, 2015 Media/Telecom Service (2) Adapting to rapid changes in the media environment With regard to consumer behavior and media, two major trends currently driving the industry are personalized broadcasting services and improvement in TV picture quality. Regarding personalization, media companies face a growing need to cover demand from both individuals (using mobile media) and households (using TV). CJ HelloVision is taking the lead in this area with Tving, an over-the-top (OTT) video service. Telcos that provide IPTV services are also starting to offer mobile IPTV services. TV makers that had been focused on hardware innovations such as 3D TV and smart TV are now turning their attention back to picture quality. According to DisplaySearch, UHD TVs will get on the path to commoditization, with annual sales volume projected to account for 10% of total TV sales globally this year. Given the probable launch of UHD broadcasting, the government is considering allocating licenses in the 700MHz frequency band to both broadcasters and telcos. In addition, domestic terrestrial channels plan to increase production of UHD content this year, and CJ E&M and KT Skylife are launching UHD-only channels. Amid such changes in the business environment, traditional performance measures like market share are becoming less relevant as boundaries between media segments blur. While cable system operators (SOs) concentrated on expanding their market shares, telcos penetrated into the IPTV segment and added mobile services to their portfolios. Accordingly, media firms and telcos need to pay attention to trends in consumers’ inclinations and lifestyles. For such companies, even more important than gaining market share from competition is gaining the “life share” of consumers—i.e., the extent to which consumers are exposed to a company’s media and content in their day-to-day lives. In the pay-TV industry, both the quantity and quality of users’ experiences will increase in significance. To broaden the extent of such experiences, companies may begin to expand their footholds beyond TV to mobile media. To improve quality, we believe they will have to expand VOD content offerings and UHD services. Figure 3. Instead of market share, content producers’ “life share” of consumers now holds the key Market share “Life share” Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Firm Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 4 KDB Daewoo Securities Research April 23, 2015 Media/Telecom Service 2. Investment strategy: Time to consider overweighting pay-TV service providers (1) Earnings normalization + benefits from changing industry paradigm Major domestic pay-TV firms have seen their combined net profit shrink YoY for three straight years. As the transition to digital TVs accelerated from 50% to 70%, companies increased investments, which led to a rise in depreciation costs. Amid intensifying competition for subscribers, companies’ ARPU declined while marketing expenses climbed. Furthermore, one-off costs in 2014 dragged down pay-TV firms’ net profit to the lowest level in three years.
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