MarkZinder.com What Happens Next? Looking Backwards to See into the Future
MarkZinder.com The Top 10 Money Managers of the 20th Century:
1.Warren Buffett 6.John Neff 2.Peter Lynch 7.John Bogle 3.Sir John Templeton 8.Michael Price 4.Benjamin Graham 9.Julian Robertson 5.George Soros 10. Dr. Mark Mobius
MarkZinder.com “When everyone is saying the same thing, a different outcome is likely to occur” - Sir John Templeton
MarkZinder.com Often early, rarely wrong.
MarkZinder.com EQUITIES Magazine
MarkZinder.com on the upside and downside, Sir John has been seriously wrong only once in 22 years. In early 1999, he was positive the overpriced US stock market would quickly crash, but he was a year early.
MarkZinder.com Does History Repeat Itself ?
MarkZinder.com Does history repeat itself?
Abraham John F. Lincoln Kennedy
•7 •7 •1863 •1963 •Johnson •Johnson •1808 •1908 •J. W. B. •L. H. O. •35 •35 •Ford Theatre •Ford Lincoln
MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com Does history repeat itself?
Ronald Donald Reagan Trump
•Ronald •Donald •Time’s “Man of the Year” •Time’s “Person of the Year” •Oldest elected: 69 •Oldest elected: 70 •First divorced President •Second divorced President •“Tear down that wall!” •“I’m going to build a wall!” •Campaign Slogan •Campaign Slogan
MarkZinder.com Does history repeat itself?
MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com Data Mining
MarkZinder.com Per Capita Cheese Consumption and The Number of People Who Die By Becoming Tangled In Their Bed Sheets
MarkZinder.com The Divorce Rate in Maine and Per Capita Consumption of Margarine
MarkZinder.com 2011 Academy Awards
INSIDE JOB Directed by: Charles Ferguson
MarkZinder.com Occupy Wall Street
MarkZinder.com 1913 - Joseph Schumpeter “Creative Destruction”
When you create something new… you destroy something old!
MarkZinder.com Disruptive
MarkZinder.com Destructive
MarkZinder.com Disruptive
MarkZinder.com Destructive
MarkZinder.com Necessity is the Mother of Invention
1880 – New York City
1898 – The world’s first international urban planning conference
MarkZinder.com They did the math…
MarkZinder.com “The biggest problems with my customers is they can only extrapolate the present. If I had asked my customers what they wanted from Ford Motor Company, they would have said a faster horse.” -Henry Ford
MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com The Evolution of a Revolution
The Industrial Revolution Railroad Revolution Electrification Mass Production Information Technology
MarkZinder.com The Evolution of a Revolution
Idea Exotic Curiosity Early Adoption General Acceptance Frenzy Collapse Final Build-out It Becomes Invisible
MarkZinder.com Idea
“Aha” moment This period can last for 25 to 50 years
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Strike Zone
MarkZinder.com March of 1950 – The Electronic Umpire
MarkZinder.com March of 1950 – The Electronic Umpire
MarkZinder.com Exotic Curiosity
• The new technology achieves success in early demonstrations • People are often frightened of the new technology
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Early Adoption
• We go from “what may be possible” to “what is possible” • New businesses are started based on the new idea
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com General Acceptance
• It’s a technical free-for-all • Government regulations are largely absent
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Frenzy
• Successes mount • The public starts to speculate • The new technology becomes the engine of growth • Wealth is being created
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Collapse
• The stock market starts to fall • Fortunes are lost
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Final Build-out
• Jobs are lost • The new technology is no longer a novelty • Profits reflect the real return of the new technology
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com It Becomes Invisible
The cycle is now complete
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Railroads
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Idea
• 1775 – James Watt invents the steam engine • 1813 – George Stephenson invents the train
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Exotic Curiosity
• 1829 – L&M sponsored the Rainhill Trials contest
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Early Adoption
• 1830 – L&M purchases six trains
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com General Acceptance
• Instead of transporting coal, L&M begins to transport people
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Frenzy
• Entrepreneurs emerge • Wealth is created • A more prosperous economy begins to develop • 1843/44 – The railroad mania was raging
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Collapse
• 1845 – Great Western Railway shares fall 40% • 10/17/1847 – An economic “week of terror” begins
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Final Build-out
• Businesses adopt and adapt to the railroads • Jobs are lost
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com It Becomes Invisible
The cycle is now complete
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Information Technology
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Idea
1946 – The ENIAC • 100 feet long and 10 feet tall • It weighs 30 tons • It has the memory capacity of 12 words
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Exotic Curiosity
• 1971 – the microprocessor is invented
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Early Adoption
• 1981 – Microsoft DOS
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com General Acceptance
• 1982 The Commodore 64
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Frenzy
• The 90’s • 1995 – Toy Story, the first computer generated full- length feature film
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Collapse
• S&P falls 43% • NASDAQ falls 78% • Cisco falls 86%
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Final Build-out
• Businesses adapt to the new technology • Jobs are lost
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com It Becomes Invisible
The cycle is now complete
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com Where are we in the computer revolution?
MarkZinder.com Is Technology Invisible?
MarkZinder.com Industrial Revolution 1760 – 1820 60 Yrs.
Railroad 1825 – 1870 45 Yrs.
Electrification 1875 – 1920 45 Yrs.
Mass Production 1910 – 1970 60 Yrs.
Microprocessor 1971 47 Yrs.
MarkZinder.com Industrial Electri- Mass Micro- Revolution Railroad fication Production processor 1760-1820 1825-1870 1875-1920 1910-1970 1971-
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
MarkZinder.com 1899
“Everything that can be invented, has been invented.” – Dr. Charles Duell, Director of U.S. Patent Office
MarkZinder.com LeftoverSwap
MarkZinder.com What Happens Next? What is the next revolution
MarkZinder.com What Happens Next? The Partial Repeal of Dodd-Frank
MarkZinder.com What Happens Next? Artificial Intelligence
MarkZinder.com What Happens Next? Biotech
MarkZinder.com What Happens Next? Graphene
MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com “IBM has built a graphene chip that’s 10,000 times faster than silicon”
MarkZinder.com Graphene battery recharges in 4 minutes
MarkZinder.com Graphene – where are we?
IDEA EXOTIC EARLY GENERAL FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES CURIOSITY ADOPTION ACCEPTANCE INVISIBLE
MarkZinder.com What Happens Next? 3D Printing
MarkZinder.com World’s First 3D Printed Gun
MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com SKYFALL Directed by Sam Mendes
MarkZinder.com Estimated Value: $4,600,000
MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com “If they lost a car, they could simply print another one.”
MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com What Happens Next?
MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com MarkZinder.com