Who’s Afraid of an Undervote? David C. Kimball University of Missouri-St. Louis
[email protected] Chris Owens Texas A&M University Katherine McAndrew Southern Illinois University November 2001 Presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, Georgia, November 9, 2001. Abstract We examine the frequency of unrecorded (“residual”) votes in the 2000 presidential election, with three innovations. First, our analysis is based on a larger sample of counties than previous studies. Second, we examine several state-specific factors (ballot design, ballot access, restrictions on write-in votes) that have largely been ignored in other studies. Third, rather than rely solely on ordinary least squares regression to estimate the effects of different factors, we demonstrate the need for a generalized least squares approach that weights each county by the number of ballots cast. In general, we find that residual votes are a function of multiple factors, some of which produce intentional abstention and some of which produce voter confusion and errors (such as making too many selections). More specifically, the percentage of uncounted presidential votes is substantially lower in states that include a straight-party option on the ballot. Furthermore, the straight-party device minimizes the disparity in invalidated ballots between high-income, white counties and low-income African-American counties. We also find that unrecorded votes were more common in the majority of states that restrict write-in votes and in states that did not include Ralph Nader’s name on the ballot. Votomatic punch card machines perform substantially worse than other voting methods, although Datavote punch cards perform just as well as other methods.