2012 FOCUSIN for thefirst timeinalmost two decades. make onlyasmallnet gain inwinningcongressional seats andcould even suffer anet loss their seats. The endresult isthat 2010 isshapingupasayear whenwomen are likely to predictably, Democrats inthisincreasingly tough year for theirparty —are at riskof losing the women already inoffice are safe bets to stay there, adecent number—most of them, bents are still intherunningcompetitive races, listed here. Inaddition,whilemost of Senate, theHouse andgovernor thisyear. But onlyarelative handfulof these non-incum More than200women, asolid majority of themRepublicans, launchedcampaigns for the This Year’s Top-Tier Women Candidates of MarylandandKirsten Gillibrand of New York, are sure bets for re-election. incumbents are highlyvulnerable to defeat thisfall, theother two ontheballot, Barbara A.Mikulski cant increase inthenumberof women senators, currently holdingat 17. Whilethree Democratic appointed Democrat MichaelBennet inColorado —have putthekibosh onchances for asignifi- her bidfor asecond fullterm inAlaskaandformer Lt. Gov. JaneNorton’s inherquest to take on THE SENATE worse than break even at their current level of six governors’ seats. Republican Nikki Haley’s position as the strong front-runner in her race, suggest that women will do no But the woman-to-woman matchups in both Oklahoma and New Mexico, along with South Carolina of potentially promising women candidates in Georgia, Minnesota, Vermont and Wyoming didn’t help. necticut and Linda Lingle of Hawaii, and Democrat Jennifer M. Granholm of Michigan. Primary defeats women ran to succeed the three women governors who are retiring: Republicans M. Jodi Rell of Con Alex Sink Libby Mitchell Nikki Haley Jari Askins Rep. Mary Fallin Diane Denish Susana Martinez Elaine Marshall Robin Carnahan Christine O’Donnell Linda McMahon Kelly Ayotte Sen. Lisa Murkowski Sen. Blanche Lincoln Meg Whitman candidates Other competitive Gov. Jan Brewer Tough re-election race GOVERNORS 1 Sharron Angle candidates Other competitive Carly Fiorina Sen. Barbara Boxer Tough re-election race Sen. Patty Murray Lost intheprimary CQ WEEKLY

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Two upset Republican primarydefeats inrecent weeks —Lisa Murkowski’s in SEPTEMBER 6,2010

This shaped up as a tough year for women to make big gains if only because no

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shewinsSept.14 primary | www.cq.com Rick Scott Paul LePage Vincent Sheheen Sen. Richard M. Burr Rep. Roy Blunt Richard Blumenthal Rep. John Boozman MALE OPPONENT MALE OPPONENT Chris Coons Rep. Paul W. Hodes MALE OPPONENT Joe Miller MALE OPPONENT Jerry Brown Terry Goddard Sen. Harry Reid Dino Rossi

Okla. N.M. Calif. STATE STATE STATE STATE Fla. Maine S.C. N.C. Mo. Conn. Ark. Del. Del. N.H. Calif. Ariz. Nev. Wash. n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n RATING RATING RATING RATING

Tossup Leans Democratic Tossup Likely Republican Likely Republican Tossup Tossup Likely Republican Likely Republican Tossup Likely Republican Leans Democratic Tossup Tossup Likely Republican Leans Republican Tossup - - Anne McLane Kuster Lori Edwards Paula Brooks Joyce Elliott Suzan DelBene Stephene Moore Kattrina Swett Julie Lassa Colleen Hanabusa Anne Marie Buerkle Terri McCormick Michele Rollins Nan Hayworth Vicky Hartzler Jackie Walorski Martha Roby Rep. Mary Bono Mack Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick Rep. Loretta Sanchez Rep. Betty Sutton Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick Kristi Noem Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy Rep. Dina Titus Rep. Carol Shea-Porter Rep. Debbie Halvorson Sandy Adams Rep. Suzanne M. Kosmas Rep. Betsy Markey Rep. Gabrielle Giffords Tough re-election race THE HOUSE Jaime Herrera candidates Other competitive Tarryl Clark Rep. Michele Bachmann competitive races for seats held by men exceeds the number of incumbents unseated by men. are more or fewer women in the House next year will be determined by whether the number winning Alabama and of , and Republican Diane Black of Tennessee. So whether there men are running for open seats in districts that are safe for their parties: Democrats Terri A. Sewell of Ginny Brown-Waite of Florida — will turn their seats over to men. But three women who will succeed publicans who are leaving voluntarily — Oklahoma gubernatorial nominee Mary Fallin and the retiring field. One, Michigan Democrat Carolyn Cheeks Kirkpatrick, lost her primary to a man, while two Re 1 Lost intheprimary 2

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2 Women in the House (currently 73) go into November with a relatively level playing 3 2

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1 Rep. Pat Tiberi Tim Griffin Rep. Dave Reichert Kevin Yoder Rep. Ike Skelton Rep. Joe Donnelly Rep. Bobby Bright Steve Pougnet Van Tran Tom Ganley Paul Gosar Mike Kelly Steve Stivers Joe Heck Sean Mahoney Frank Guinta Adam Kinzinger Cory Gardner Sean Duffy Rep. Charles K. Djou Rep. Dan Maffei Rep. Steve Kagen John Carney Rep. John Hall MALE OPPONENT Hansen Clarke MALE OPPONENT Jennifer Horn Charles Bass Jesse Kelly Denny Heck primary 3

PHOTO If CREDIT HERE shewinsSept.18primary or

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S.D. AL Fla. 24 N.H. 2 DISTRICT Minn. 6 DISTRICT Fla. 12 Ohio 12 Ark. 2 Wash. 8 Kan. 3 Mo. 4 Ind. 2 Ala. 2 Calif. 45 Calif. 47 Ohio 13 Ariz. 1 Pa. 3 Ohio 15 Nev. 3 N.H. 1 Ill. 11 Colo. 4 Wis. 7 Hawaii 1 5 2 .Y. N Wis. 8 Del. AL N.Y. 19 Mich. 13 Ariz. 8 Wash. 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n RATING RATING

Likely Republican Likely Republican Likely Republican Leans Republican Leans Republican Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Leans Democratic Leans Democratic Leans Democratic Leans Democratic Leans Democratic Tossup Likely Republican Likely Republican Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Leans Democratic Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup - www.cq.com | SEPTEMBER 6,2010 | CQ WEEKLY IN FOCUSIN 2013