Food Forecast Food & Beverage Trends for 2020
JANUARY 2020
APRON F&B COMMUNICATIONS © 2020 www.apronfoodpr.com TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary 2 TrendfluenceTM Model 4 Top Trends 9 • Better For You 11 • Better For The Planet 93 Other Trends 118 Appendix 124
1 Overview
The food industry loves buzzwords and to be up on the latest fad. But what trends should brands really pay attention to and act upon?
Apron’s Food Forecast and our proprietary TrendfluenceTM Model takes the chaotic world of food trends and narrows it to the few that matter. Read on to find out more about these trends, which we’ve categorized as “better for you” and “better for the planet.”
Most of the trends herein aren’t driven by changing taste profiles new ingredients, but rather technology. It’s safe to say most of today’s big food trends are actually tech trends dramatically affecting the food an d beverage space.
2 TrendfluenceTM Model
3 Research Approach
• The Apron F&B research team used the 4C model to determine what trends influence a brand: Culture, Category, Companies, Consumers. All elements of the model are interdependent and may influence each other.
• On the Culture level, we distinguished 2 categories of trends that uniquely influence F&B: Better-for-you and Better-for-the-planet trends.
• Better-for-you trends include:
− Plant-based trend
− Convenience and transparency
− CBD infusion.
• Better-for-the-planet is fueled by recent climate conversation and includes:
− Food waste management
− New farming technology
− Sustainable packaging.
• Three metrics are employed throughout to evaluate a trend and estimate trend strengths: Twitter volume, media mention volume and market size. 4 Factors Influencing a Brand: 4Cs
CULTURE • How are macro forces in the culture impacting the category, the competition, and the mindset of consumers? • Are there cultural tension that can be leveraged to our advantage? Culture Category CATEGORY • How is the category changing based on key cultural trends/tensions? • Are there opportunities in our category/adjacent category that we can leverage?
COMPANIES Brand • Who are the leading brands in the category? New disruptors? • Who are the direct and indirect competitors in the category? • What do they do? • How are we superior and/or different?
CONSUMERS Consumers Companies • Who are the consumers? • What do they think about their choices in the category? • What messaging is/isn't resonating with them? • How does the brand/product fit into their lives?
5 Methodology
For this report, we analyzed trends that will impact Food, Beverage and Foodservice industries in 2020.
Research duration: July-October 2019
Research methodology: secondary research and forecasting
We use 4C's model (Culture, Category, Companies/Competitors, Consumers) to describe the trend and analyze its influence on a brand.
TrendfluenceTM Model elements: - How strong is the trend? - Source: Food Forecast - How much does it influence the brand? - Source: Custom Research - Is the influence positive or negative? - Source: Custom Research
TrendfluenceTM Model elements (see page 8): - Number of users tweeting about a trend; - Number of media mentions of a trend; - Market size.
6 TrendfluenceTM Model: Calculations
Step 1. How strong is the trend? Somewhat Somewhat Step 1: Food Forecast Weak Medium Strong Brand weak Strong Step 2 and 3: Individual for each brand
1 2 3 4 5
Step 2. How much does it influence the brand? Brand Index = Strength Coef. x Influence Coef. x Influence Somewhat Has direct Weak Somewhat Medium Brand Direction strong Impact
1 2 3 4 5 Brand Index Guidelines
Step 3. Is the influencer positive or negative? Min Max Guidance 25 50 Great! Find ways how to use the trend ASAP Somewhat Somewhat Negative No influence Positive Brand 18 24 Consider using the trend in the nearest future negative positive 10 17 Monitor the trend and prepare to adjust -2 -1 0 1 2 -9 9 Action not required, monitor for change -17 -10 Monitor the trend and prepare to adjust -24 -18 Consider responding to the trend in the nearest future Brand's Index: -50 -25 Immediate action required
7 Trend Strength Model
How strong is the trend?
1 2 3 4 5
Weak Somewhat Medium Somewhat Strong weak strong
Table 1. Effect size of each metric Table 2. Strength of the trend Small Medium Large Combination of trends Total t.coef. Strength of the trend Metrics r t.coef. r t.coef. r t.coef. Small, Small, Small 1 Weak / 1 Number of twitter users 0.1 1 0.3 2 0.5 3 Small, Small, Medium 2 Number of media mentions 0.1 1 0.3 2 0.5 3 Small, Small, Large 3 Somewhat Weak / 2 Market size 0.1 1 0.3 2 0.5 3 Small, Medium, Medium 4 Small, Medium, Large 6 Medium / 3 Medium, Medium, Medium 8 Step 1. Find correlation coefficient (r) for each metric Small, Large, Large 9 Step 2. Match r with the corresponding trend coefficient (t.coef) Somewhat Strong / 4 Step 3. Find a multiplication of all the t.coef (t.coef 1 x t.coef 2 x t.coef 3) Medium, Medium, Large 12 Step 4. Match Total t.coef with the Strength of the trend from Table 2. Medium, Large, Large 18 Strong / 5 Strength of the trend Large, Large, Large 27
8 Top Trends
9 Trends: Culture influence category, category influence company and products/services
CULTURE LEVEL CATEGORY LEVEL COMPANY LEVEL
Meat Alternatives Better-for-you Vegan/Plant-based Dairy Alternatives
Egg Replacements
Marijuana Legalization CBD Infused Food and Drinks
Third Party Delivery Convenience Delivery/Pickup Online Grocery
Transparency Direct-to-Consumers
Ugly Produce Food Waste Food Waste Technology Better-for-the-planet New Farming Technology
Packaging Sustainable Packaging10 Better-For-You
11 Better for you Millennials Criticized as Most Narcissist Generation
The generation grew up, got more spending power and leads the market segment asking How this is better for ME?
12 Time’s Cover, May 2013 1. Plant-based
13 Better-For-You: How strong is the trend?
1 2 3 4 5
Dairy Meat Alternatives Alternatives
14 For the past half- century, veganism has been a minority within a minority. But 2019 will be the year veganism goes mainstream. - The Economist
15 Source: The Economist, 2019 5% 63% 11%
of population identify of Millennials are trying to Growth of plant-based market themselves as vegetarian incorporate plant-based in 2019 compared to 2018 foods into their diet
16 Source: Forbes, Statista, WSJ 1.1. Meat Alternatives
17 Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Top 3 Highlights: Meat Alternatives
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Consumers are more health and environmentally conscious, and reports on red meat’s potential linkage to health and environmental issues influences consumer attitudes toward meat.
CATEGORY While traditional meat consumption is still king, consumers are also incorporating plant-based meats into their diets. Retailers started placing plant-based meat products into coolers with beef and pork, providing easier access for these products for consumers.
COMPANIES Companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods grow very fast but still cannot meet demand. Many QSRs started to offer vegan options of their most popular items and Bloomberg created a website with regularly updated information about what restaurants have Impossible Burger in stock.
TREND STRENGTH: 5 - Strong
18 Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives
42% 268% 26% 21%
Increase in sales Increase on sales Increase of offering of meat buyers of meat alternatives of meat alternatives of meat alternatives also purchase from 2017 to 2018 from 2018 to 2019 in restaurants meat alternatives
19 Source: Dining Alliance, Nielsen Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Plant-Based vs Conventional Meat Market
Plant-based meat Conventional meat Conventional vs Plant-based meat
$888M Market Size $85B Market Size Market size of conventional and plant- 42% Sales increase 1% Sales increase based meat between March 2016 between March 2016 $2.5B Predicted market size of plant- and March 2019 and March 2019 based meat substitutes in 2023
20 Source: Inc.com, Forbes, Food Dive Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Top Players: Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger
⇧18% traffic during trial
21 Source: Business Insides, VegNews, Beyond Meat, Burger King, Bloomberg Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Beyond Meat: Niche to Mainstream
Kroger and other retailers are testing how grocery shoppers will react to plant-based 'meat’ in the traditional meat aisle
22 Source: Food Navigator USA, Business Insider Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Beef/Frozen Veggie Brands Explore Lab Meat
23 Source: Food Dive, Refrigerated Frozen Food, NRM, Fast Company, NYTimes, Grocery Dive Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Trend Penetration: Meat Alternatives
25%
of the U.S. population used meat alternatives in 2019 (79.65M)
24 Source: Statista Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Meat Alternative Twitter Conversation
Number of users tweeted monthly about vegan-related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 25 in thousands Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Meat Alternative Media Mentions
Number of monthly broadcast media outlets mentions of vegan-related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 26 in thousands Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Estimated market revenue of meat substitutes in the U.S. from 2012 to 2020 (in million)
Actual Est. Forecast
27 Source: Statista Better for you / Plant-Based / Meat Alternatives Trend Strength: Meat Alternative
TWITTER USERS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 587k r=0.75 Small Medium Large
MEDIA MENTIONS 0.1 0.3 0.5 5 Total (12 months): 299.7k r=0.90 Small Medium Large Strong MARKET SIZE 0.1 0.3 0.5 r=0.99
Small Medium Large
28 12 months: October 2018-September 2019 1.2 Dairy Alternatives
29 Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Top 3 Highlights: Dairy Alternatives
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Dairy alternatives aren’t new. Driven by health concerns, decreasing digestibility of milk with age, and the growing number of dairy allergies, consumers have incorporated dairy alternatives into their diets for years. The variation today is in ingredients of the milk.
CATEGORY Oat milk consumption hasn’t reached consumption of almond milk but is growing faster. Nuts, tree nuts, soy and gluten are common allergens (as is dairy) and, while some people are allergic to almond and almond milk, oats are naturally gluten-free (note: it depends on how the oats are processed, but oat milk made from certified gluten-free oats is gluten-free).
COMPANIES Oatly is one of the leading brands in the category, The Swedish company increased production oat milk by 1,250% but still hasn’t met demand. Other dairy-alternative companies (like So Delicious, Silk, Malk) introduced their versions of oat milk and oat milk products (frozen dessert, yogurt).
TREND STRENGTH: 3 - Medium
30 Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives
$2.4B 9% 33%
Estimated sales of milk alternatives Increase on sales of milk Household penetration of plant- in the U.S. in 2018 alternatives from 2017 to 2018 based beverages in the US in 2016 (whereas cow’s milk sales were (from 18% in 2010) down 6%, or $1.1B)
31 Source: Food Navigator, Mintel, Statista Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Oat Milk Growing and outperformed Soy, still is far from Almond and Coconut Milk
32 Source: Google Trends Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Oat Milk Growing and outperformed Soy, still is far from Almond and Coconut Milk
Oat Milk
Soy Milk
Almond Milk
33 Source: Google Trends Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives
425% 1,250%
Increase of Oatly’s production in 2018 Oat Milk sales increase 2017 to 2018 in coffeeshops (but it has still not been able to keep up with demand)
34 Source: MarketWatch, The Guardian Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Oat Milk U.S. Product Launches 1996-2019
Before 2018 September October November December January February March April May June July August September
1996 2016 2017 2018 2019
35 Source: Food Dive, Refrigerated Frozen Food, Food Navigator, Fast Company, Go Dairy Free, BevNet, FoodBev, PRNewsWire, Forbes Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Starbucks and Dunkin’ Adding Milk
Starbucks plans to offer oat milk in store in Illinois, Dunkin’ will be offering Oatmilk Latter in the restaurants Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and across the US starting spring 2020 Wisconsin starting summer 2020
36 Source: BevNET, Food and Wine Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives
“We’ve been talking about oats CHOBANI forever and ever and ever. We INTRODUCED think oats is probably the king of OAT MILK AND the plant-based world. That is a YOGURT whole new muscle for us. It’s a IN NOVEMBER whole new category for us.”
2019 - Peter McGuinness President, Chobani
37 Source: Food Dive Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Trend Penetration: Dairy Alternatives
33%
Of the U.S. population consume milk alternatives
38 Source: Statista Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Dairy Alternative Twitter Conversation
Number of users tweeted monthly about dairy alternatives between July 2018 and September 2019, 39 in thousands Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Dairy Alternative Media Volume
Number of monthly broadcast media outlets mentions of dairy alternatives between July 2018 and September 2019, 40 in thousands Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Non-Dairy Milk Estimated Market Revenue, 2004-2024
Actual Est. Forecast
41 Source: Mintel Better for you / Plant-Based / Dairy Alternatives Trend Strength: Dairy Alternative
TWITTER USERS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 243k r=0.41 Small Medium Large
MEDIA MENTIONS 0.1 0.3 0.5 3 Total (12 months):156k r=-0.44 Small Medium Large Medium MARKET SIZE 0.1 0.3 0.5 r=0.999
Small Medium Large
42 12 months: October 2018-September 2019 1.3 Other Alternatives
43 Better for you / Plant-Based / Other Alternatives On the Radar: Egg Replacement
JUST Egg introduced new product mid-July 2019 $42M About 77% Sales of Egg Substitutes in 2018 in the U.S. of the people buying JUST Egg are not vegans or vegetarian & - Josh Tetrick, JUST Egg, CEO Whole Foods will add Just Eggs to hot bars in 63 stores across California, Arizona, Hawaii and Las Vegas in January 2020
44 Source: Statista, Food Navigator, Grocery Dive Better for you / Plant-Based / Other Alternatives Trend Strength: Egg Replacements
How strong is the trend?
1 2 3 4 5
Weak Somewhat Medium Somewhat Strong weak strong M
There is low social conversation at the moment. Because the market is too small and only started developing, we Trend to recommend watching this trend. Monitor
45 Trends: Culture influence category, category influence company and products/services
CULTURE LEVEL CATEGORY LEVEL COMPANY LEVEL
Meat Alternatives Better-for-you Vegan/Plant-based Dairy Alternatives
Egg Replacements
Marijuana Legalization CBD Infused Food and Drinks
Third Party Delivery Convenience Delivery/Pickup Online Grocery
Transparency Direct-to-Consumers
Ugly Produce Food Waste Food Waste Technology Better-for-the-planet New Farming Technology
Packaging Sustainable Packaging46 2. CBD Everything
47 Better for you / CBD Top 3 Highlights: CBD-Infused Products
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Changing culture around marijuana legalization influences consumers' perception about CBD (short for cannabidiol) oil-infused products. 34% of consumers perceive only-CBD products (no THC) as natural and 24% as healthy.
CATEGORY While there are no regulations about CBD products and it is not an approved ingredient by the FDA, it is used as an ingredient in food, drink, supplement, cosmetics and clothes. Several states do not allow sales of CBD-infused items in bars and restaurants and there is no clear understanding of how much CBD is healthy and enough.
COMPANIES Companies claim CBD improves sleep, reduces anxiety and stress, and helps with pain relief. CBD infused products are produced by companies specializing in supplements, as well as CPG brands, bars and restaurants, and endorsed by celebrities.
TREND STRENGTH: 5 - Strong
48 Better for you / CBD
$813M $1.8M $9.8B
Expected CBD consumer sales in Expected CBD consumer sales in Sales of legal cannabis in the U.S. in 2019 2022 [Statista]. Nielsen predicts total 2018 cannabis sales reach $6B by 2025
49 Source: Statista, Nielsen Better for you / CBD Legality While CBD is legal in all states, recreational marijuana remains illegal in most states
50 Source: Disa Better for you / CBD
19% 54%
Of consumers who use/consume CBD products, use of adults in the U.S. said they were interested in trying them at least once a month CBD infused food/baked goods in 2018
51 Source: Statista Better for you / CBD CBD Infused Food Product Categories
Oil + pills Water Beer Tea/Matcha Coffee Smoothie Blend
Cookies Cereals Popcorn Gummies Chocolate Honey
52 Better for you / CBD CBD-Infused Menu Items
Coffee/Tea Cocktails Smoothies
Burger Sweet Treats (Carl’s Jr., Denver, 4/20) (Chit Chat, Chicago, 4/20)
53 Better for you / CBD Consumer Desire for More Options
24% 17% 22% 19%
of Generation Z and 20% of of consumers are interested of Millennials and 19% of Gen of Millennials would be Younger Millennials (age 25- in coffee with CBD, and this Z say they would try a motivated to try an 32 in 2019) want to see more rises to 21% and 23% among mocktail or non-alcoholic unfamiliar ingredient or food/beverages containing Gen Z and Millennials, cocktail if it had relaxation flavor at a restaurant if it has CBD at fast food restaurants respectively benefits like CBD a functional benefits
54 Source: Mintel Better for you / CBD Attributes Associated with CBD-Only Products (No THC)
34% 29% 24%
Natural Relaxing Healthy
55 Source: Mintel Better for you / CBD Trend Penetration: CBD Infused Products
7%
of Americans use CBD products
56 Source: Bloomberg Better for you / CBD CBD Twitter Conversation
Number of users tweeted monthly about CBD-related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 57 In thousands Better for you / CBD CBD Media Volume
Number of monthly broadcast media outlets mentions of CBD-related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 58 in thousands Better for you / CBD U.S. Sales of CBD-Infused Products, 2014-2022 (Forecast)
Actual Est. Forecast
59 Source: Statista Better for you / CBD Trend Strength: CBD-Infused Products
TWITTER USERS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 388k r=0.87 Small Medium Large
MEDIA MENTIONS 0.1 0.3 0.5 5 Total (12 months):165.1k r=0.86 Small Medium Large Strong MARKET SIZE 0.1 0.3 0.5 r=0.96
Small Medium Large
60 12 months: October 2018-September 2019 Trends: Culture influence category, category influence company and products/services
CULTURE LEVEL CATEGORY LEVEL COMPANY LEVEL
Meat Alternatives Better-for-you Vegan/Plant-based Dairy Alternatives
Egg Replacements
Marijuana Legalization CBD Infused Food and Drinks
Third Party Delivery Convenience Delivery/Pickup Online Grocery
Transparency Direct-to-Consumers
Ugly Produce Food Waste Food Waste Technology Better-for-the-planet New Farming Technology
Packaging Sustainable Packaging61 3.1 Third Party Delivery Partnerships
62 Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Top 3 Highlights: Third Party Delivery
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Convenience plays a big role in modern life and 3rd party food delivery apps allow an easy and inexpensive way to receive food and drinks at home. Although about a third of the consumers think delivery does not provide as much value as dining out and food quality is diminished when delivered, more than half choose delivery options to save time, stay at home and avoid cooking. Younger generations are more likely to order food delivery, but these services are being utilized across all generations.
CATEGORY Restaurant delivery is still more common than delivery via 3rd party companies, however, 3rd party delivery companies work with a wider range of restaurants that do not have their own delivery services, and provide services like order placement, promotions, and an element of discovery.
COMPANIES Four companies (DoorDash, UberEats, GrubHub, and Postmates) control almost 90% of the third-party food delivery market. Restaurants partner with these companies to be top of mind for consumers and ensure a better experience.
TREND STRENGTH: 5 - Strong
63 Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery
$8.7B 12.9% 48.4%
Expected revenue in the Online Year-to-year expected annual Number of 3rd party delivery apps Food Delivery by 3rd party revenue growth of 3rd party users in the U.S. in 2019 companies in 2019 companies in 2019
64 Source: Statista Third Party Delivery: Key Players
After being #1 brand for several years, GrubHub dropped to the third place
Other Online Platforms
Share of Total Consumer Spent, U.S., September 2019 Due to rounding, numbers may not add up to 100%.
65 Source: Edison Trends Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Location Matters
Share of Sales (August 2019) of Top On-Demand Platforms
66 Source: Second Measure Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery App Users
DoorDash UberEats Grubhub Postmates Share of total 35% 25% 24% 6% customer spend Users of the app are [more] [less] [less] [more] [more/less] likely than order twice-a-week be loyal be frequent users be interested in sit users of other apps… down and fast food [more] [less] restaurant offerings look for promos to agree that food quality is diminished [more] when it is delivered prioritize speed Average Order $32 $27 $31 $31 Fee $5.99-$8 + 15% ~$5 $4 to $8 $5.99 / $3.99 (partner)
Unlimited $9.99/mo $9.99/mo n/a $9.99/mo or $99/year
67 Source: Mintel, Edison Trends, DoorDash, UberEats, GrubHub, Postmates Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Restaurant Partnership Recap
DoorDash UberEats Grubhub Postmates
68 Source: Edison Trends, Fast Food Menu Prices Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Chick-fil-A Using DoorDash Kitchens
Other companies that are testing virtual kitchen: - Famous Dave’s, - Wetzel's Pretzels, - Dog Haus - Outback & Carrabba's
69 Source: Restaurant Dive Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Using the Trend in a Campaign
Burger King created two campaigns in 2019 tied with delivery: The Traffic Jam Whopper in Mexico City in May 2019 when the company delivery food to people in cars in traffic and a campaign promoting partnership with UberEats in October 2019 in LA when “king himself” delivered several orders from BK.
70 Source: AdAge, AdWeek Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Two Trends Combo: Impossible + DoorDash
DoorDash added a filter for restaurants that serve Impossible burgers and waved delivery fees to promote it.
71 Source: Impossible, Nation’s Restaurant News Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Trend Penetration: Third Party Delivery 14.7%
of U.S. population uses Food Delivery Apps
95.6M order delivery in the US, 29% of the population
72 Source: eMarketer, Statista Third Party Delivery Twitter Conversation
Number of users tweeted monthly about 3rd party apps delivery-related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 73 in thousands Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Third Party Delivery Media Volume
Number of broadcast media mentions of 3rd party delivery-related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 74 in thousands Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery U.S. Market Revenue of Third Party Food Delivery (in millions)
Actual Est. Forecast
75 Source: Statista Better for you / Convenience / 3rd party delivery Trend Strength: Third Party Delivery
TWITTER USERS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 587k r=0.79 Small Medium Large
MEDIA MENTIONS 0.1 0.3 0.5 5 Total (12 months):147.5k r=0.90 Small Medium Large Strong MARKET SIZE 0.1 0.3 0.5 r=0.997
Small Medium Large
76 12 months: October 2018-September 2019 3.2 Convenience: Online Grocery
77 Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery Top 3 Highlights: Online Grocery
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Only about a quarter of consumers buy groceries online due to concerns about the quality of food, but saving time is the largest reason to order groceries online.
CATEGORY Consumers are more likely to buy online packaged non-perishable products and less likely to order produce, dairy and fresh meat, poultry or seafood products.
COMPANIES Grocery retailers aggressively compete with each othe,r offering faster and cheaper delivery and pickup options. The average offered delivery time is 2 hours (1 hour at Kroger and the same day at Walmart) and most companies offer ~$100/year delivery program (free pickup).
TREND STRENGTH: 3 - Medium
78 Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery
$67B 38% 179%
Estimated online sales of groceries Annual estimated online grocery Growth of online food and beverage in 2019 (food and beverages sales: sales growth, 2017-2022 sales in 2014-2019 $23.3B)
79 Source: Mintel, Grocery Dive Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery Online Grocery: Key Players
Online grocery stores where consumers purchase groceries more often
80 Source: Mintel Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery
$70 75% 119%
Average online order in Jan-Sep Growth of Walmart online grocery Growth of Target online grocery 2019, a growth of 6% sales in January-October 2018 sales in January-October 2018
81 Source: Marketing Dive, Edison Trends Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery Trend Penetration: Online Grocery 25%
of households in the U.S. buy grocery online (sometimes) 7%
of households in the U.S. do half or more of their grocery shopping online
82 Source: Marketing Dive, Mintel Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery Online Grocery Twitter Conversation
Number of users tweeted monthly about online grocery related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 83 in thousands Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery Online Grocery Media Volume
Number of broadcast media mentions of online grocery related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 84 in thousands Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery Total Sales of Online Groceries
Actual Est.
85 Source: Mintel Better for you / Convenience / Online Grocery Trend Strength: Online Grocery
TWITTER USERS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 39k r=0.11 Small Medium Large
MEDIA MENTIONS 0.1 0.3 0.5 3 Total (12 months):31.2k r=0.33 Small Medium Large Medium MARKET SIZE 0.1 0.3 0.5 r=0.9997
Small Medium Large
86 12 months: October 2018-September 2019 4. Transparency & Convenience: Direct to Consumers (DTC)
87 Better for you / Convenience / DTC Top 3 Highlights: Direct to Consumers
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Convenience and transparency are two trends that shape all the spheres of consumers’ lives, and direct-to- consumer (DTC) brands fit squarely inside those trends.
CATEGORY Considering low barriers to entry, DTC companies have become more popular promoting their products on social media via paid posts and influencers, however, they may struggle with being discovered by consumers when the majority of them do their grocery shopping in stores.
COMPANIES Companies offer one-time and subscription options to buy online, but also try to get into major retailers and grocery stores.
TREND STRENGTH: Trend to monitor
88 Better for you / Convenience / DTC
105% 45% 40%
Increase of average monthly time of Internet users will likely to of US internet users expect DTC spent on select DTC retail sites purchase in future from Food & brands to account for at least 40% of among US Internet users, Oct 2016- Drink DTC brands, and 40% have their purchases within the next five October 2019 done it in the past years
89 Source: eMarketer, Statista Better for you / Convenience / DTC New Brands Explore DTC Model
Nuggs, a vegan Magic Spoon, an adult Brightland sells 80% of Brandless is selling Smarty Pants started as nuggets brand, cereal brand, raised its olive oil to DTC 350-plus food, a DTC brand and grew received $7M $5.5M of investment consumers household, health and to ~$100M in revenue investment in 2019 beauty items for $3 and is available now in each and raised $293 retailers like Target and million in investment Whole Foods
90 Source: WSJ, AdWeek, CrunchBase, Semisupervised Better for you / Convenience / DTC Meal Kits (Grocery + DTC) Expected to Grow to $11.6B by 2022
Marketshare of the leading meal kit companies in the United States as of February 2018
35% 33% 13%
Value of the fresh-food meal-kit delivery service market 10% 7% 3% in the United States from 2016 to 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)
91 Source: Statista Better for you / Convenience / DTC Trend Strength: DTC
How strong is the trend?
1 2 3 4 5
Weak Somewhat Medium Somewhat Strong weak strong M
Social conversation is low and this market is still small and developing, so we recommend watching this trend. Trend to Monitor
92 Trends: Culture influence category, category influence company and products/services
CULTURE LEVEL CATEGORY LEVEL COMPANY LEVEL
Meat Alternatives Better-for-you Vegan/Plant-based Dairy Alternatives
Egg Replacements
Marijuana Legalization CBD Infused Food and Drinks
Third Party Delivery Convenience Delivery/Pickup Online Grocery
Transparency Direct-to-Consumers
Ugly Produce Food Waste Food Waste Technology Better-for-the-planet New Farming Technology
Packaging Sustainable Packaging93 Better For the Planet
94 Better for the planet
76% 54% 53%
Believe CEOs should lead change, Believe it is easier for people to get Believe brands can do more to solve instead of waiting for government brands to address social problems social ills than government than to get government to take action
95 Source: Edelman Trust Barometer 2019, Edelman Earned Brand Report 2018 Better for the planet Climate Change Influences Food Perceptions
Amazon wildfires Australia fires California fires
Nutrients change in wheat due to high levels of carbon in the ”If people change their diets, reducing red meat and air in experiments: increasing plant-based foods, such as fruits, vegetables and seeds, the world can save as much as another 15% of 6% to 13% 4% to 7% 5% to 8% current emissions by mid-century. It would also make people more healthy.” Less protein Less zinc Less iron - AP, UN climate report: Change land use to avoid a hungry future, August 8, 2019
96 Source: AP, Vox, National Geographic, Grocery Dive Better for the planet
48% 83% 57%
of consumers in the U.S. say they of Millennials (and 68% overall) in of Americans view climate change would change their consumption the U.S. said it’s extremely or very as a “major threat”, up from 40% in habits to reduce their environmental important that companies 2013. impact implement programs to improve the environment
97 Source: Nielsen, Economist 5.1 Food Waste: Ugly Produce & New Technology
98 Better for the planet / Food Waste Top 3 Highlights: Food Waste
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Vegetables and fruit accountable for almost 40% of food waste in the U.S. In developed countries most of the food waste happens at the consumer level. While frozen and canned fruits and vegetables can reduce food waste, consumers have a more negative perception about non-fresh produce (processed and high-sugar) and strong positive perception about fresh produce (natural and nutritious).
CATEGORY Nearly 70% of the world’s 50 largest food companies participate in food waste reduction programs and investors increased their support of companies that provide food waste reducing solutions. These initiatives may include consumer education, using "ugly" produce, better food supply chain management, and creative technologies that allow food to stay fresh longer.
COMPANIES Companies introduced "ugly" produce subscription boxes (Imperfect Produce, Misfits Market) and products made with these fruits and vegetables (Kroger, Dieffenbach’s Potato Chips, Inc). Grocery retailers committed to zero waste programs and created dynamic discounting policies to sell perishable products faster.
TREND STRENGTH: 5 - Strong 99 Better for the planet / Food Waste
~40% 611lb $1.5K
of food in the United States is per capita annual food waste average cost of food U.S. families wasted in the United States waste in a year
100 Source: NRDC, Economist, CNBC Better for the planet / Food Waste
Imperfect Produce Misfits Market Pickuliar Picks by Kroger Project Juice Dieffenbach’s Potato Chips, Inc
101 Better for the planet / Food Waste Venture Capitalists Invested $125M in Food Waste Management Companies in 2018
Raised: $110M Raised: $47.1M Develops plant-derived shelf life extension technology for fresh Delivers “ugly” produce with up to a 30% discount compared to produce grocery stores
Raised: $11.5 Raised: $2.7M The first B2B marketplace for ugly and surplus produce Helps food businesses, farms and nonprofits better manage unsold food inventory
102 Source: CrunchBase Better for the planet / Food Waste Food Waste Twitter Conversation
Number of users tweeted monthly about food waste-related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 103 in thousands Better for the planet / Food Waste Food Waste Media Mentions
Number of broadcast media mentions of food waste-related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 104 in thousands Better for the planet / Food Waste Trend Strength: Food Waste
TWITTER USERS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 90k r=0.57 Small Medium Large 5
MEDIA MENTIONS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 43.7k r=0.61 Small Medium Large Strong
105 12 months: October 2018-September 2019 5.2 Vertical Farming
106 Better for the planet / Vertical Farming Top 3 Highlights: Vertical Farming
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Approximately 82% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas and by 2050 urban population in the U.S. will reach 90%. Vertical farming allows getting some types of vegetables and fruits to consumers faster and cheaper.
CATEGORY Vertical farming companies raised almost $600M from investors in 2018. These companies rent old warehouses and use shipping containers to grow leafy greens in big cities.
COMPANIES Companies use robots, LED lighting, and data analytics to grow leafy greens indoors using 80-95% less water and with more yield on the same square footage that=n traditional farming requires.
TREND STRENGTH: Trend to monitor
107 Better for the planet / Vertical Farming
$920M $596M 80%
Estimated market value of vertical Investments into companies less water use compared farming in the United States in 2019 building “novel farming systems” in to a traditional farm 2018
108 Source: Market Watch, WSJ Better for the planet / Vertical Farming Investors Support New Technologies
In partnership with Infarm, Kroger launched in-store produce farms in November 2020
Benefits of indoor farms: o Less water usage; o Reduced food waste; o Reduced weather related risks; o Production of more consistent crops; o Growing vegetables year around; o Possible to grow fresh produce in urban environment (less transportation)
Venture-capital supported companies (2018-2019 investments):
AppHarvest Gotham Greens AeroFarms Bowery Farming $82M $29M $100M $90M
109 Source: WSJ, CrunchBase, Marketing Watch, Grocery Dive Better for the planet / Vertical Farming Trend Strength: Vertical Farming
How strong is the trend?
1 2 3 4 5
Weak Somewhat Medium Somewhat Strong weak strong M
Social conversation is low and this market is still small and developing, so we recommend watching this trend. Trend to Monitor
110 5.3 Sustainable Packaging
111 Better for the planet / Sustainable Packaging Top 3 Highlights: Sustainable Packaging
CULTURE + CONSUMERS Consumers believe that it’s the responsibility of food and beverage manufacturers (64% of consumers) and packaging manufacturers (56% of consumers) to use environmentally friendly packaging.
CATEGORY While consumers' personal priorities outweigh environmental responsibility, they positively respond to companies' sustainability efforts.
COMPANIES Consumers positively received news in July 2018 that Starbucks would eliminate plastic straws. Other companies found alternatives to plastic and minimized packaging.
TREND STRENGTH: 3 - Medium
112 Better for the planet / Sustainable Packaging
64% 26% 40%
of consumers think that of consumers choose products that of consumers named Recyclable as food/beverage manufactures are have minimal packaging and 23% the important factor when choosing responsible for providing more are planning to adopt this food/beverages, 21% mentioned environmentally friendly packaging habit within a few years Reusable and 13% mentioned Compostable
113 Source: Mintel Better for the planet / Sustainable Packaging
Beer companies like Dasani explores Evian plans on Starbucks McDonald’s plans to Corona, Carlsberg, aluminum water producing all its announced in 2018 use only packaging and Guinness started bottles plastic bottles from its plan to stop using made from using recyclable 100% recycled plastic straw by 2020 renewable, recycled cardboard instead of plastic or certified sources. plastic Taco Bell to follow.
114 Source: MarketWatch, Fast Company, Carlsberg, Starbucks Better for the planet / Sustainable Packaging Sustainable Packaging Twitter Conversation
Number of users tweeted monthly about sustainable packaging related topics between August 2018 and September 2019, 115 In thousands Better for the planet / Sustainable Packaging Sustainable Packaging Media Mentions
Number of broadcast media mentions of sustainable packaging related topics between July 2018 and September 2019, 116 in thousands Better for the planet / Sustainable Packaging Trend Strength: Sustainable Packaging
TWITTER USERS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 310k r=0.62 Small Medium Large 3
MEDIA MENTIONS 0.1 0.3 0.5 Total (12 months): 35.1k r=0.14 Small Medium Medium Large
117 12 months: October 2018-September 2019 Trends: Culture influence category, category influence company and products/services
CULTURE LEVEL CATEGORY LEVEL COMPANY LEVEL STRGTH
Meat Alternatives 5 Better-for-you Vegan/Plant-based Dairy Alternatives 3
Egg Replacements M
Marijuana Legalization CBD Infused Food and Drinks 5
Third Party Delivery 5 Convenience Delivery/Pickup Online Grocery 3
Transparency Direct-to-Consumers M
Ugly Produce Food Waste 5 Food Waste Technology Better-for-the-planet New Farming Technology M
Packaging Sustainable Packaging118 3 Other Trends to Watch
119 Other Things to Watch
TRENDING From The Ground Up Purely Elizabeth 365 365 Cauliflower Tortilla Cauli Hot Cereal Cauliflower Crust Cauliflower Flour INGREDIENT: Chips Cheese Pizza CAULIFLOWER Google Trends: Cauliflower
120 Source: Whole Foods, Google Trends Other Things to Watch
TRENDING Skinny Pop Purely Elizabeth Ancient Nutrition INGREDIENT: Popcorn + Collagen Collagen Protein Cereal Keto Collagen Protein Powder COLLAGEN Google Trends: Collagen
121 Source: Whole Foods, Google Trends Other Things to Watch
SNACKING 95% 70% 59%
of US adults snack of US adults snack 2+ of adults prefer daily times per day snacking to meals STILL TRENDING FREE-FROM 62% 75% 22%
of consumers avoid at of those who avoid do of consumers note least one ingredient so as a part of a they are buying more healthy lifestyle free-from foods in 2019 than a year ago
122 Source: Mintel, Food Dive Other Things to Watch
Quorn: CO2 Label on the package “The carbon footprint for the full lifecycle of this Quorn product is 0.16kg per serving.” TREND Vessel: POTENTIAL Colorado startup created an app for those who wants to get a to-go coffee but doesn’t have a reusable cup. People can borrow a gleaming stainless steel mug instead
123 Source: Fast Company About Apron
TEXHAHN © 2020 People need to eat. We support brands that feed them.
Apron F&B promotes and protects food and beverage brands…
…with insightful consumer research, exceptionally creative and digitally-driven outreach strategies and an industry- leading crisis communication practice.
125 Get in Touch 4200 Marathon Blvd., Suite 300 Austin, TX 78756 512.344.2010
Click to email Visit the website
126 Appendix: Definitions and Sources
127 Definitions: Generations by Age
In this report we use generation- related terms: - Baby Boomers (or Boomers); - Generation X - Millennials - Generations Z (iGeneration)
Approximate age ranges for each generation group are presented in the chart on the right.
Note: Different sources may choose different years to include population in one or another generation group, therefore the ages may vary. Ages of each generation vary in different sources (+- 1-2 years)
128 Source: Pew Research Definitions: Generations by Size and Labor Force Representation
Millennials is the largest generation in the U.S. and on the U.S. labor market
129 Source: PewForbes, Research Statista, WSJ Sources
Section Source Link Better for you Time https://time.com/247/millennials-the-me-me-me-generation/ Plant-based The Economist https://worldin2019.economist.com/theyearofthevegan Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/kroger-enters-meatless-fray-with-store-branded-patties-1156770190 Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/bridgetshirvell/2019/09/09/more-than-50-of-millennials-trying-to-incorporate-plant-based-foods-into-their-diet/#6a500e585eb Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/296974/us-population-share-by-generation Meat Alternatives Nielsen https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2019/meet-the-new-meat-eater/ Dining Alliance https://www.diningalliance.com/blog/meatless-alternatives-burgers-restaurants Inc https://www.inc.com/associated-press/beyond-meat-ipo-2019.html Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/07/01/beyond-meats-valuation-are-investors-overpaying-for-this-meal/#134c4c52422a Food Dive https://www.fooddive.com/news/plant-based-meat-survivor-which-brands-will-stay-on-the-shelf/562928/ Business Insider Markets https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/beyond-meat-stock-price-up-475-since-pricing-ipo-2019-6-1028266607 VegNews https://vegnews.com/2019/8/pitbulls-fast-food-chain-testing-beyond-burger VegNews https://vegnews.com/2019/7/beyond-meat-to-debut-on-blue-apron-menus-this-summer VegNews https://vegnews.com/2019/8/beyond-meat-is-coming-to-450-hospitals-cafeterias-and-ballparks-nationwide Beyondmeat https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken/ Burger King https://www.bk.com/menu-item/impossible-whopper Lansing State Journal https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/2019/08/09/burger-king-impossible-whopper/1964979001/ VegNews https://vegnews.com/2019/8/sodexo-brings-plant-based-impossible-burger-to-1500-colleges-hospitals-and-cafeterias-nationwide VegNews https://vegnews.com/2018/12/carls-jr-debuts-meatless-beyond-meat-famous-star-nationwide VegNews https://vegnews.com/2019/1/hard-rock-cafe-adds-impossible-burger-to-40-us-locations VegNews https://vegnews.com/2018/7/impossible-burger-now-at-applebees-and-cheesecake-factory NRN https://www.nrn.com/casual-dining/red-robin-rolls-out-impossible-burger Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/features/impossible-burger-where-to-buy/ Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/burger-king-tgi-fridays-chains-sell-plant-based-meat-2019-5#white-castle-1 Restaurant Dive https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/impossible-whopper-drives-18-traffic-growth-at-burger-king/565199/ Foodnavigator Usa https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2019/09/10/Kroger-and-PBFA-to-test-three-foot-plant-based-meat-retail-concept-in-60-stores Business Insider Markets https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kroger-pbfa-testing-plant-based-meat-in-traditional-meat-aisle-2019-9-1028513356 Beyond Meat, Instagram Refrigerated Frozen Food https://www.refrigeratedfrozenfood.com/articles/97940-smithfield-foods-launches-plant-based-protein-portfolio NRN https://www.nrn.com/consumer-trends/5-more-companies-tackle-plant-based-meat-alternatives Food Dive https://www.fooddive.com/news/is-kellogg-the-biggest-competitor-in-the-plant-based-meat-sector/561443/ Fast Company https://www.fastcompany.com/90357584/nestles-new-plant-based-awesome-burger-wants-in-on-the-fake-meat-market Food Dive https://www.fooddive.com/news/motif-raises-275m-to-expand-production-of-animal-free-ingredients/561220/ NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/14/business/the-new-makers-of-plant-based-meat-big-meat-companies Grocery Dive https://www.grocerydive.com/news/kroger-debuts-plant-based-fresh-meat-brand/570040/ Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/279814/us-households-usage-of-meat-alternatives/ Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/886936/us-meat-substitutes-market-revenue-by-product/
130 Sources
Section Source Link Dairy Alternatives Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/932823/dairy-alternatives-sales-by-category/ Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/474461/us-household-penetration-rate-plant-based-beverages/ Foodnavigator Usa https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2018/07/30/US-retail-sales-of-plant-based-milk-up-9-plant-based-meat-up-24-YoY# Mintel: Milk And Non-Dairy Milk - US - October 2019 Google Trends https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=oat%20milk,soy%20milk,almond%20milk,coconut%20mil Marketwatch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oat-milk-is-the-new-almond-milk-2018-09-27 Tastecooking https://www.tastecooking.com/inside-great-oat-milk-shortage/ Refrigerated Frozen Food https://www.refrigeratedfrozenfood.com/articles/97943-oat-yeah-oatmilk-yogurt-alternatives Food Business News https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/14134-danone-debuts-so-delicious-dairy-free-oatmilk-yogurt-alternatives Fast Company https://www.fastcompany.com/90266566/exclusive-the-oat-milk-wars-are-heating-up-as-hood-introduces-planet-oak Food Dive https://www.fooddive.com/news/danone-introduces-oat-yeah-as-the-grain-becomes-the-next-big-milk-alternati/544946/ Foodnavigator Usa https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2018/11/12/Quaker-dips-into-plant-based-with-Oat-Beverage-launch Foodnavigator Usa https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2019/01/10/Califia-Farms-enters-the-oatmilk-category Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/dairy-farm-nut-milks-elmhurst-2017-4 Food Business News foodbusinessnews.net/articles/14134-danone-debuts-so-delicious-dairy-free-oatmilk-yogurt-alternatives Food Dive https://www.fooddive.com/press-release/20180904-elmhurst-1925-debuts-new-barista-edition-line-at-2018-natural-products-exp/ Foodbev https://www.foodbev.com/news/elmhurst-1925-debuts-single-serve-oat-milk-for-on-the-go-drinking/ Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/janetforgrieve/2019/01/11/califia-farms-aims-to-quench-growing-oat-milk-demand/#1c3e91452897 Go Dairy Free https://www.godairyfree.org/product-reviews/happy-planet-oatmilk Go Dairy Free https://www.godairyfree.org/product-reviews/happy-planet-barista-edition-oatmilk Bevnet https://www.bevnet.com/news/2019/expo-west-2019-oat-milk-innovators-look-to-stand-out PR Newswire https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/malk-organics-debuts-new-organic-plant-based-creamers-packed-with-oats-and-nuts-300911221.html Food Dive https://www.fooddive.com/news/chobani-goes-all-oat-with-new-yogurt-and-milk-launches/567055/ Bevnet https://www.bevnet.com/news/2020/oatly-kicks-off-2020-expansion-plan-with-starbucks-partnership# Food and Wine https://www.foodandwine.com/news/dunkin-adds-oat-milk-menu-spring Food Dive https://www.fooddive.com/news/chobani-goes-all-oat-with-new-yogurt-and-milk-launches/567055/ Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/279814/us-households-usage-of-meat-alternatives/ Other Alternatives Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/771457/plant-based-food-sales/ Foodnavigator Usa https://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2019/08/21/JUST-Inc-CEO-The-company-is-JUST-Egg-and-JUST-Egg-is-the-company# Grocery Dive https://www.grocerydive.com/news/whole-foods-adds-plant-based-eggs-to-hot-bars/569490/ CBD Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/760498/total-us-cbd-sales/ Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/933384/legal-cannabis-sales-forecast-us/ Advertising Week NY http://newyork.advertisingweek.com/watch/-cannabusiness-seminar-2019-09-25-1445 Disa https://disa.com/map-of-marijuana-legality-by-state Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/1010684/cbd-oil-consumption-rate-us/ Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/1010829/consumer-interest-in-cbd-oil-infused-products-us/ Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/1011682/cbd-product-likelihood-interest-us-adult/ Mintel Patent Watch: The Business Of Cbds And Psilocybin (April 2019) Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/much-hyped-u-s-cbd-market-may-reach-16b-by-2025-cowen-say Statista https://www.statista.com/statistics/760498/total-us-cbd-sales
131 Sources
Section Source Link 3rd aprty delivery Statista https://www.statista.com/outlook/374/109/online-food-delivery/united-states Edison Tech https://trends.edison.tech/research/edison-trends-on-demand-food-delivery-sales-report-2019.html Second Measure https://secondmeasure.com/datapoints/food-delivery-services-grubhub-uber-eats-doordash-postmates/ Mintel: Foodservice Online Ordering And Delivery – US – November 2018 Foodservice Online Ordering and Delivery – US – November 2018 Mel Magazine https://melmagazine.com/en-us/story/making-sense-of-food-delivery-fees Fast Food Menu Prices https://www.fastfoodmenuprices.com/delivery-fast-food/ Restaurant Dive https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/chick-fil-a-now-delivers-out-of-doordash-kitchens/567368/ AdAge https://adage.com/creativity/work/burger-king-traffic-jam-whopper/2169631 Adweek https://www.adweek.com/agencies/burger-king-promotes-delivery-by-pointing-out-where-it-doesnt-have-restaurants Adweek 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133