Issue , Year UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com 222 5 September 15, 2019 EU €2.50 Alexandria Assad’s battles climate propaganda change tours Page 20 Page 9 Peace takes a backseat Dynamics old and new as Netanyahu moves to drive Tunisia’s elections boost electoral chances

Mamoon Alabbasi calation” and called for an emergency meeting of the foreign ministers of the 57-member Organisation of Islamic London Cooperation “to discuss the serious Is- raeli escalation.” sraeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s announcement was Netanyahu is making a last-ditch also condemned by the United Arab push to boost his chances in the Emirates and Bahrain, which, like I September 17 Israeli elections Saudi Arabia, share Israel’s concerns but his campaign efforts appear to be regarding Iran’s role in the region. at the expense of reaching a peace deal Netanyahu informed the United with the Palestinians or forming better States before making his announce- ties with the wider region. ment on annexing the Jordan Valley The latest poll, released September and hinted that the move was sup- 12 by the state-owned Kan 11 television ported by the Trump administration. channel, predicted that Netanyahu’s Netanyahu, however, drew criticism Likud party would win 31 seats in par- from Moscow ahead of a trip to meet liament, two fewer than the figure ex- with Russian President Vladimir Putin. pected for his main rival, former mili- Netanyahu’s anti-Palestinian rheto- tary chief Benny Gantz, who heads the ric did not stop at the West Bank. Two Blue and White alliance. days after vowing to annex the Jordan Both the right-wing Likud and the Valley, the Israeli prime minister said centrist Blue and White would need another war in Gaza was inevitable be- to form alliances with other parties to cause of rocket fire from the besieged secure the minimum of 61 seats in the Palestinian enclave. Electoral framework. A man poses for a picture 120-member Knesset needed to form a Netanyahu’s electioneering drew with a poster that reads in Arabic “Tunisia votes coalition government. In an apparent criticism from Palestinian citizens of and continues” at Tunis media centre. (Reuters) bid to court more voters and parties Israel, often referred to as Arab Israe- that are to the right of Likud, Netan- lis. He accused them of being engaged yahu stepped up his rhetoric against in voter fraud and pushed for a parlia- Lamine Ghanmi Tunisia’s resources, which the West sassinations and illegal spying since Palestinians. mentary bill that would have cameras has been accused of unfairly exploit- 2013, Zbidi pledged, if elected, “to Netanyahu vowed to annex the Jor- installed in polling stations in their ing. unravel the mysteries linked to the dan Valley, which accounts for approxi- areas. The move was seen as a bid to Tunis “Populists use this argument of issue of the secret apparatus.” mately one-third of the occupied West intimidate Palestinian citizens of Israel natural resources to lure voters by Experts said oversized egos, in- Bank, if he wins the elections. from voting but the bill failed to pass in ince early September, Tunisia selling them pipe dreams using data ternecine feuds and lack of cohesive Palestinian President Mahmoud Ab- parliament. has been going through an and figures that are inaccurate,” said narratives loom large among mod- bas warned that all peace agreements Separately, Facebook said Netanya- election cycle that will con- Aidi. ernists. This has bred a “poisonous with Israel would end if Netanyahu hu’s page had violated the platform’s S tinue until the beginning of If the 2014 election was marked climate,” they said, made worse by carried out the pledge. The Jordan Val- hate-speech policy by allowing a post November. by a clear-cut polarisation between glitches in the unfinished institu- ley is home to 65,000 Palestinians and that accused Arabs of “want[ing] to After the results of the Septem- secularists and Islamists, that divide tion-building process. 9,000 Israeli settlers. destroy us all — women, children and ber 15 presidential election are an- is not totally absent in the current The absence of a Constitutional Netanyahu’s annexation announce- men.” nounced, Tunisian voters will have election cycle despite the growing Court, because of the inability of ment drew condemnation from Arab to choose, on October 6, which po- divisiveness among the modernists parliament to agree on its makeup, countries, which Israel hopes to nor- Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy litical parties and independent slates themselves. has created political turbulence and malise ties with. Managing Editor and Online Editor will sit in the new parliament and Tunisian Minister of Defence Ab- tense jockeying for power. Almost all Saudi Arabia denounced Netan- of The Arab Weekly. form the next government. delkrim Zbidi, a presidential can- candidates have called for amend- yahu’s move as a “very dangerous es- P4 If the presidential campaign is any didate running as an independent, ments to the electoral code. Many indication, a new political culture acknowledged that the Islamist En- advocated for revising the constitu- has emerged in Tunisia, considered nahda Movement “is objectively tion to reset the balance of power Shedding light on Qatar’s Muslim a model of successful democratic an integral part of the political and between institutions. transition in the region. party landscape in Tunisia.” Others said they regret there is Brotherhood network in Europe Whatever the electoral results, no provision for primary elections liberal Westernised elites and, to a within the secular camp but former The Arab Weekly staff ential political actors have called for certain extent, Islamist candidates If the presidential campaign Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa, anoth- the ban of the Muslim Brotherhood. have been strongly challenged by is any indication, a new er of the 26 confirmed candidates for London Based on access to thousands of populists. political culture has president, told The Arab Weekly that confidential documents, producers Said Aidi, Bani Watani leader and emerged in Tunisia, kind of provision was premature. n September 24, the Franco- of the film focus on the role of Qatar presidential candidate, told The Arab considered a model of “The question of the primaries is German TV channel ARTE is Charity, an NGO operating in many Weekly the trend stems from a com- successful democratic not yet relevant because we must to broadcast an investigative countries of Europe where it finances bination of crises besetting the coun- transition in the region. first finalise the constitutional bod- O documentary titled “Qatar: A scores of mosque projects, Islamic try since the 2011 uprising, despite ies of the second republic as we will War of influence on Islam in Europe.” centres and schools linked to the the new era of democratic change. However, during his campaign, have amended the electoral code to The documentary is the latest Muslim Brotherhood. “There is a crisis of confidence in Tu- Zbidi also highlighted a different vi- allow for a stable majority in the as- French investigative work shedding Doha’s activities in France are but- nisian politics, as well as a social and sion that separated him from Islam- sembly,” he said. light on Qatar’s large web of econom- tressed by a transactional strategy economic crisis,” he said. ists. Echoing demands by secularists ic, political and cultural connections and the seeming complacency of Par- The solutions some populists offer and leftists who clamour for light Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly in Europe. Doha pursues its activities is towards Qatar’s double game. reflect distrust of political elites and to be shed on the suspicions of an correspondent in Tunis. even in countries such as staunchly a lack of confidence in the overall Islamist-run clandestine operation secularist France where many influ- P12 post-independence management of that would have been involved in as- P2-3,6 Teens discover voice through media outlet in Egypt’s peripheries

Marc Espanol been gradually expanding in Egypt. lessons,” said Bashkatib founder face include ensuring they have a broken pipeline along a main road It supports projects such as Dar El Ahmed Elhawary. adequate financial resources, navi- went viral and attracted the inter- Salam in Aswan, Mansoura, Minya, “There is nothing [else] provid- gating a vague legality about social est of national television stations. Cairo Port Said and Sohag. ed to them: no music, no theatre, entrepreneurship and gaining the “These media outlets can re- One of Bashkatib’s goals is to nothing [that allows them] to get to trust of the locals. flect better what is happening in ina Abdel Aziz, a 17-year- introduce young people in areas know anything about themselves As the projects become more all these areas where the voice of old student of commerce where the opportunities beyond and about their potential.” well-known, the perception of the the people is not heard,” said Ali, from Cairo’s Dar El Salam school are limited to new experi- Bashkatib focuses its attention community starts to change as who added that the projects also D neighbourhood, said she ences. Bashkatib provides train- on the marginalised and peripheral well. “They start to see us in a dif- “change the mindset of the people was always interested in writing ing that targets skills ranging from communities. ferent way [because] we had their regarding how things work, [show- about what is going on around her. creative writing, photography and “Most of the media are located in credibility and, if we have the trust ing] that they should not wait until However, it was not until she and cartoons to design, management Cairo and local reporters are not as of the people, we can be the voice people talk about them but rather her mother discovered Bashkatib, and marketing, so participants can well-trained, [so] the news coming of these areas,” said Ziad Ali, 20, a that they can talk about them- an initiative aimed at establishing identify their interests and run a from local governorates are usually writer with Bashkatib since he was selves.” and supporting media outlets run small media outlet. not well written or mislead because 15. (Full version of this article appears on by teenagers in marginalised Egyp- “These teenagers receive a very of a lack of knowledge and experi- In Aswan, for instance, Bashkat- www.thearabweekly.com) tian communities, that she was able bad education and are exhausted ence,” said Elhawary. ib’s work led to the relocation of a to develop her journalistic skills. from going to school in the morn- He noted that the main chal- smelly fish market. An article about Marc Espanol is a Catalan Founded in 2013, Bashkatib has ing and come back late after private lenges grass-roots media outlets flooding in Dar El Salam caused by journalist in Egypt. 2 September 15, 2019 Cover Story Tunisian Elections Interview Electoral campaign mirrors anger, anguish about future Lamine Ghanmi

Tunis

unisians across the country expressed dissatisfaction over the record of the gov- T ernment, including Islam- ist members and their secularist allies, as they prepared to vote in presidential elections. Widespread anger against the political elite dominated public discourse before the vote and was epitomised by raucous protests about urban mismanagement after flash floods blocked roads in south- ern suburbs of Tunis. Angry debate on social media, television and the campaign trail split traditional political allies and inflamed tensions. “Thank you, you are the only one who has been polite enough to accept the electoral pamphlet of Sheikh (Abdelfattah) Mourou,” university student Amira Saadaoui said as she helped canvass for the Islamist Ennahda movement- High-stakes election. Secularist presidential candidate backed candidate. Said Aidi. (Courtesy of Said Aidi) “I do not understand why peo- ple are bitter against him and En- Cautious hopes. People sign a nahda. Others just wave me away poster that reads in Arabic when they see the picture of the “We elect and continue” in Tunis, sheikh on the paper.” September 12. (Reuters) Aidi calls The working-class neighbour- hood of Dar Fadhal in Tunis, where Saadaoui and her friends handed out pamphlets, was an Ennahda among the 26 candidates running ment with Ennahda and its allies campaign stronghold in last year’s municipal for president. They were protesting would have on voters’ choices in elections. the government’s failure to deliver the September 15 presidential and Would-be voters in Sidi Bou Ali, on promises to help a struggling October 6 legislative elections. in the coastal region of Sousse, milk factory there pull out of bank- Analysts said there was a head- climate blocked roads and burned bill- ruptcy. wind affecting support for popu- boards featuring Tunisian Prime Analysts wondered what effect lists with implausible promises of poisonous Minister Youssef Chahed, who was widespread anger and disappoint- free social welfare services. Other

candidates losing in the first round of the vote. For voters in “The calls for a useful vote Lamine Ghanmi are aimed at the modification of the voter mood. I say the issue is not the useful vote, which I ecularist candidate call a ‘futile vote.’ The real stake Tunisia, it feels Said Aidi said the in this stage of the presidential elections are the best elections is the parliamentary opportunity for elections,” Aidi said. Tunisians to put the Parliamentary polls are due Scountry on a track towards a October 6 with almost all stable democracy that brings candidates for president vying like a roll of a dice strong growth and social for the top positions to bolster inclusiveness. the chances of their parties or Iman Zayat “The political parties in the coun- tion has risen to 7% and the cost of However, that prospect could allies in the legislative vote. try have given people the impres- living has increased by more than be spoiled by the rise of Aidi called the campaign sion that they are not listening to 30% since 2016. populism because of broken climate “poisonous,” citing Ariana their concerns,” Hassan Zargouni, Leading up to the 2019 elections, promises after nine years of allegations about candidates president of Sigma Conseil, a Tuni- analysts and politicians said a lack Islamist coalitions with using state resources and of ith Tunisia’s election sian research and statistics bureau, of economic progress could pose a secularists, he said. collusion between the govern- season under way, told the French weekly Le Point. threat to Tunisia’s democratic pro- Aidi, 58, said the headwind ment and the judiciary to many voters remained Zargouni, who has monitored and ject. of populism is casting a pall detain a leading candidate and W undecided for whom analysed Tunisia’s political climate The International Crisis Group, a over the conclusion of the force another to stay away from they will vote for parliament or since 2011, said a general mistrust of think-tank in Belgium, warned of a current elections. the country out of fear of being president and many expressed disil- the political class led voters to turn “general crisis of confidence in the Populist candidates raised arrested. lusionment with a government they against the establishment. political elite” in Tunisia. The group the issue of natural resources “A lot of suspicions weigh on say has done little to address their “A new trend is taking three very urged the European Union to sup- claiming foreign powers were the campaign as people in the grievances. distinct forms in Tunisia,” said port measures that would prevent siphoning off the country’s government use state “The mood is a blend of gloomy Zargouni, a nostalgia for autoc- further polarisation, including mac- wealth. They also advocated for resources for their campaigns and tense,” said Haytham Abid, a racy that “feeds on the incapacity ro-financial assistance, reforms to a stronger influence of religion and commit financial means 33-year-old engineer, as he stood of the current state and its laxity,” public administration and the crea- in state affairs and laws. that are beyond the legal by a campaign party of the Islam- the appeal of populist discourses tion of a politically diverse Consti- “The rise of populism in limits,” he told The Arab ist Ennahda Movement in Ariana, a and an “antisystem crystallisation” tutional Court. Tunisia and elsewhere came Weekly. southern suburb of Tunis. that happens when the people con- Similar concerns were expressed from the crisis of the political He pointed to campaign post- While Abid said he believes in sider “the system as a party cartel, by the German Institute for Inter- class. That is why I say we must ers and other advertisements democracy he also said he fears a caste, whose sole purpose is to national and Security Affairs, which go to the moralisation of to back his claims about the politicians’ failures since the 2011 enjoy the advantages of power.” A said serious obstacles stand in the politics,” Aidi said. unfairness of the campaign. uprising could allow incompetent fourth form, Zargouni said, is pas- way of strengthening Tunisia’s po- Aidi said: “The use of the “It suffices to count the candidates to take power or cause sive abstention from the political litical gains argument of national resources number of posters to conclude Tunisia to drift back to its “old au- process. “The danger is that Tunisia be- by the populists aims at that some candidates sur- thoritarian reflexes.” comes a hybrid regime in which causing a break with our passed the legal limits of Bystanders seemed to share Ab- democratic elements and processes traditional allies.” campaign financing but that id’s concerns, highlighting unkept Many Tunisians have are muddled with authoritarian re- He rejected any potential did not elicit any reaction from promises by Tunisian politicians complained that they are flexes and sometimes anti-demo- alliance or entente with the the election watchdog [Tuni- election after election. left in the dark because cratic measures,” the German think- Islamists, saying: “I chair a sia’s Independent High “We have heard many promises of the independent tank said in March. party, Bani Watani, whose Authority for Elections] or that sound quite similar to those electoral body’s ruling to On September 8, French For- political charter makes it clear other authorities,” Aidi said. made by politicians during the 2011 ban the publication of eign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to separate the religion from Aidi is a graduate of France’s Tunisian Constituent Assembly opinion polls. weighed in on Tunisia’s status, say- politics.” Ecole Polytechnique. He election and in the run-up to the ing its “democratic transition is tak- Aidi and other candidates in worked on research and 2014 parliamentary and presiden- This, Zargouni contended, could ing place properly.” However, he the modernist camp have faced development projects in tial elections,” said one man in his spell trouble for Tunisia’s political declined to comment on the case of persistent calls for a “useful France before becoming an 40s. class, which has made little progress jailed media mogul and presiden- vote” strategy in which some executive with a multinational Distrust of political figures is in addressing slow economic growth tial contender Nabil Karoui, who hopefuls would withdraw from technology company in North widespread in Tunisia, where many and high unemployment. has been held since August 23 on the race in favour of a potential Africa. He later created a citizens have seen their economic The economy, more than any- charges of money laundering and strong front-runner to avoid communication and technol- conditions deteriorate since 2011 thing, will be on voters’ minds as tax evasion. the risk of all modernist ogy start-up. and feel abandoned by Carthage’s they head to the polls. Nationwide, For many Tunisians, Karoui’s ar- elite. unemployment stands at 15%, infla- rest ten days before the campaign September 15, 2019 3 Cover Story Tunisian Elections Electoral campaign mirrors anger, anguish about future Interview years ago when secularists united of distributing free pasta to voters, against resurgent Islamists, who hence the “Macaroni Party” nick- closed ranks with other conserva- name. tives to ward off what they feared Karoui is in jail on charges of would be a return of “anti-Islamist money laundering and tax evasion authoritarianism.” but his candidacy remains valid. This year, the crowded field of Some public figures urged can- contenders and surging populist at- didates from the modernist and titudes intensified fears of further democratic camp to withdraw to al- instability. There were also con- low a single candidate the greatest cerns that infighting in ideological perceived strength. groups could cause rifts within the “We are cheerfully and democrat- modernist camp. ically careening towards a catastro- phe,” said political writer Marouen Achouri, summing up the mood of Analysts said there was a the elites as they survey the politi- headwind affecting cal landscape. support for populists “The quarter of winners of the with implausible race mix incompetence, corrup- promises of free social tion, inexperience and bragging. welfare services. We have to sound the alarm on the basis of figures and analyses but the A supporter of Tunisian Defence law bans us.” Minister Abdelkrim Zbidi boasted Analysts said there will likely be about preventing Chahed’s cam- multiple effects from the first round paign from reaching people in Zag- of presidential and parliamentary houan, outside Tunis. elections, the formation of the next Chahed issued an emotional plea government, the sympathy of Tu- to Zbidi’s team in response, say- nisia’s foreign powers and financial ing: “Zbidi and I are from the same backers abroad and the mood of in- democratic row. When you assail vestors at home and abroad. me, you are attacking the demo- The current race is seen as much cratic family. The danger is that you different than the previous presi- Need for competence. Tunisia’s former acting Prime Minister will find neither of us on Septem- dential vote race. Mehdi Jomaa. (Courtesy of Mehdi Jomaa) ber 15.” “In 2014, around three-quarters “Our rivals are Ennahda and pop- of the electorate were represented ulism,” added Chahed. in the result of the winner of the “Three parties are dominating second round,” said Hassen Zargou- Jomaa focuses the landscape: Tahya Tounes, En- ni, head of the Sigma Group polling populist candidates pledged to free nahda and the ‘Macaroni Party’,” company. farmers from their debts, return he added in an allusion to Qalb This year, “the atomisation of Tunisia to sharia and nationalise Tounes, led by media tycoon Nabil the current political offer and the on experience oil. One contender promised to end Karoui. absence of polarisation could point parliamentary elections and re- Karoui gained a strong following to a different outcome. It is a seri- place them with a system of grass- in poor and rural districts through ous source of instability to take into roots democracy. a publicised charity scheme since account in the near future,” he ar- in clash with This is a stark change from five 2017. His supporters were accused gued. populist creed

that have worsened after the 2011 Lamine Ghanmi revolution,” he said. Jomaa argued that modernist unisia’s former acting forces should rally behind Prime Minister Mehdi whichever camp candidate Jomaa pressed his advances to the runoff. experience as an “Logic says that this would be engineer and a top the case, even if our goal is to Tmanager as his qualification in break the habitual practice of the battles to win the Tunisian bargaining between parties just election for president. for the sake of distributing Jomaa, 57, emphasised the positions (in top government need for technocratic compe- jobs),” he said. tence to solve Tunisia’s crisis of Jomaa promised voters he slow economic growth and would hit the ground running if unemployment amid growing elected president. distrust for leading political “(My) whole approach… in parties. these elections is to make “I distinguish myself with available my know-how and my experience in the government international address book in leadership, governance and order to benefit my country,” he international expertise,” he said said. during the campaign. He said improving education Jomaa has been a top executive would be among his top priorities. at energy giant Total, aviation In foreign policy and economic firms and world financial diplomacy, Jomaa wants to institutions. energise “Tunisia’s neutrality” He is one of eight modernist towards rival factions in neigh- contenders — among a total field bouring Libya to help end the of 26 candidates — seeking at conflict there. least one of the two spots in a Jomaa said there is a possibility potential election runoff. of drawing a broader flow of was reminiscent of the country’s little part in providing clarity to vot- for the next five years. Populist candidates, virtually investment in Tunisia from the autocratic past and raised questions ers. “For both parliamentary and all without public office experi- wealthy Arab Gulf region. about the independence of the judi- Though eager to hear candidates’ presidential elections, it’s a roll of a ence, have not placed a premium “Tunisia must once again ciary. platforms directly, many Tunisians dice,” said Cyrine Hjaiej, who stud- on a management background, become a land of major investment Fears that the democratic process criticised the debates’ “poor for- ies medicine at university, as she instead advocating for a break for the Gulf countries,” he said. is under threat were exacerbated by mat” that did not allow for much scanned campaign posters on a wall from the status quo. Jomaa showed enthusiasm for a harsh political infighting, including critical engagement and com- in Ariana. “Of course, nothing will Jomaa said the fuzzy political broader partnership with the smear campaigns, and the dissemi- plained that most prospective lead- be clear before October, when the landscape reflected Tunisia’s European Union, Tunisia’s main nation of fake news on social media. ers put up a “dull performance.” results of the parliamentary elec- effort to build a stable democracy trade partner. Populist politicians Many Tunisians have complained Political scientist and communi- tions will be communicated to the as it struggles to resolve its and nationalists called the that they are left in the dark about cations professor Larbi Chouikha public.” economic and social crises. planned EU-Tunisian trade the election process because of the said the debates were little more “I believe the results of the parlia- “It (the split in the democratic agreement, known by its French independent electoral body’s ruling than a “facade.” mentary election will conclusively centrist political family) is indeed acronym as ALECA, as opening to ban the publication of opinion “In the televised debates we determine the outcome of the presi- disturbing and salutary,” he told the door for “re-colonisation.” polls during the official campaign watched, the adopted format high- dential race, in its second round,” The Arab Weekly. “The negotiation of ALECA is a period, which began September 2. lighted simply the look, appearance she added. “Salutary because it is quite chance if and only if we know how The lack of official polling led to and manners… of candidates rath- Tunisians head to the polls for the normal that a political landscape to seize the opportunities and if confusion as prospective voters find er than their intrinsic value, their first round of presidential elections emerging from decades of above all we know how to prepare themselves flooded with political mastery of the subjects at hand, September 15, with parliamentary authoritarianism takes time to for it,” he said. ads and unsourced polls on social the depth of their analyses, the rel- elections in October. If no presiden- stabilise around two to three “Our approach is as follows: We media, making it difficult to discern evance of their ideas and the reli- tial candidate receives a majority large national political forma- will put all of our agreements the support of candidates. ability of their proposals,” Chouikha of the vote, the top two contenders tions.” [with the European Union] for Even Tunisia’s first televised said. will head to a run-off November 2. “(It is) worrisome because discussion and not to simply add presidential debates, praised as a With so much disillusionment Tunisia has borne many eco- ALECA to the other older agree- historic moment for the country and uncertainty, it remains to be Iman Zayat is Managing Editor of nomic and social crises, crises ments. and the region, seem to have played seen who will lead Tunisian politics The Arab Weekly. 4 September 15, 2019 Cover Story Israeli Elections Victory for Netanyahu’s Likud party ‘hanging by a thread’ before vote

The Arab Weekly staff to adopt the Blue and White plan to recognise the Jordan Valley.” Blue and White also said it London would “strengthen the settle- ment blocks” in the occupied West pinion polls predicted a Bank, which are illegal under in- close race when Israelis ternational law. go to the polls September “Both (Netanyahu and Gantz) O 17, five months after an are basically saying there will not inconclusive vote in which Israeli be an independent Palestinian Prime Minister Binyamin Netan- state,” Avner Gvaryahu, CEO of yahu declared himself the winner Breaking the Silence, a group of but failed to put together a coali- former Israeli soldiers that advo- tion government. cates for an end to the occupation, “A Likud victory is possible but told Time magazine. it’s hanging by a thread,” Abraham Gantz was chief-of-staff from Diskin, political science professor 2011-15, when he retired, and has at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, boasted in video clips of the num- told Reuters, referring to Netan- ber of Palestinian militants killed yahu’s right-wing party. and targets destroyed under his command in the 2014 war in Gaza. Netanyahu and Gantz are seen If a partnership with to be in step on external threats, Gantz is the only way to such as archfoe Iran and Leba- stay out of the back non’s Hezbollah as well as Hamas. benches, prominent Gantz, however, does appear more Likud members could try open than Netanyahu to resuming to topple Netanyahu as peace talks with the Palestinians. party leader. Some candidates of the centrist Blue and White alliance are seek- ing votes from the Arab minority On mission to beat Netanyahu. Benny Gantz (C) and Yair Lapid (R), leaders of Blue and White alliance, An end to the Netanyahu era who make up nearly one-fifth of arrive for a news conference in Tel Aviv. (Reuters) after 10 years in power, however, Israel’s population. They are de- would not likely lead to a dramatic scendants of Palestinians who re- change in Israel’s policies on hotly mained on their land after Israel’s Viewpoint disputed issues in a peace process creation in 1948 and they largely with the Palestinians. Relations support the Palestinian cause. with the United States would be In Israel, voting largely follows likely to remain on track, despite ethnic lines, with Arabs voting for Netanyahu’s close relationship Arab candidates and Jews sup- Prime minister’s unilateralism with US President Donald Trump. porting Zionist parties but in this Likud is running neck and neck election, some are said to be con- with the centrist Blue and White sidering crossing traditional com- alliance led by former armed munity lines. is informed by Trump’s style forces chief Benny Gantz, who Netanyahu has been repeatedly has focused heavily on corruption accused of demonising Arab Israe- he has pushed the process along. In Hicks as “primarily administrative charges Netanyahu faces. lis during campaigns. December 2017, Trump recognised and involved assisting Kushner with Gantz said his party would not Blue and White candidates of- Rashmee Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and daily logistics like getting coffee or join a government with Netanya- ten attack Netanyahu or promise Roshan Lall moved the US embassy there, taking coordinating meetings.” hu in it, citing the prime minister’s more development funding for the holy city off the table in final- Berkowitz has no experience of legal troubles. If a partnership Arab communities in Israel, while status negotiations. The Palestinians international problem-solving and with Gantz is the only way to stay staying off the subject of the Is- hose who wonder claim East Jerusalem as the capital no discernible expertise on the Mid- out of the back benches, promi- raeli-Palestinian conflict and the whether Israeli Prime of their hoped-for state in the West dle East other than one that might nent Likud members could try to Israeli occupation of Palestinian Minister Binyamin Bank and Gaza. be a liability. He is a Zionist Jew, who topple Netanyahu as party leader, territory. Netanyahu will follow Trump also recognised Israeli spent a couple of years studying at some political analysts said. The country’s main Arab par- through on his auda- sovereignty over the Golan Heights, an Israeli secondary school where Netanyahu’s political fate could ties have again formed an alliance cious proposal to annex breaking from the post-WWII the focus was traditional religious end up in the hands of the far- in hopes of repeating or beating Tthe Jordan Valley and the northern international consensus that forbids texts. right Yisrael Beitenu headed by their performance in 2015 elec- Dead Sea, as well as parts of the territorial conquest during war. Is- Berkowitz aside, how committed former Defence Minister Avigdor tions, which saw them become the West Bank, need only look east and rael captured the plateau from Syria is Trump to the mirage he advertised Lieberman in the coalition-build- third-largest force in parliament. then west. during the 1967 war. as the Deal of the Century? Jason ing certain to follow the vote. However, they must tackle low East, to India, where Hindu In March, when Trump made his Greenblatt, the man Berkowitz is After the election in April, turnout figures, such as those reg- nationalist Prime Minister Narendra gift of the Golan Heights to Netan- replacing, was Trump’s real estate Lieberman blocked Netanyahu’s istered in April, when their parties Modi made the breathtakingly bold yahu — as if it were his to give — the lawyer, a greenhorn diplomat who attempts to form a coalition, citing were divided. decision to unilaterally downgrade Israeli prime minister faced a tight damningly announced his depar- differences with the prime minis- the constitutionally recognised spe- election battle. Now, Netanyahu is ture before the full Trump plan was ter’s ultra-Orthodox allies. Opin- cial status of the disputed territory back fighting for his political life in rolled out. As US President Barack ion polls indicate Yisrael Beitenu Some candidates of the of Kashmir. As of August 5, Kashmir Israel’s second vote in six months. Obama’s Special Envoy for Israeli- will emerge stronger in the new centrist Blue and White has become a federally adminis- The possibility of Trump’s backing Palestinian Negotiations Martin In- ballot. alliance are seeking votes tered region of India; its state flag on crude electoral stunts and bold dyk has said, with Berkowitz, Trump “(Lieberman) has an ability to from the Arab minority consigned to the museum of lost measures afterward matters hugely. is replacing the unqualified architect crown the next prime minister who make up nearly objects and its people subject to a Annexation of West Bank territory of a widely panned peace plan with and he knows it very well,” Dmitri one-fifth of Israel’s security lockdown as well as drastic increasingly enjoys popular support someone even worse. Doubov, editor-in-chief of Israel’s population. restrictions on communicating with in Israel. A poll by the Israel Democ- What’s clear is that Trump likes Russian-language Channel 9 tele- the wider world. racy Institute in August indicated the theatrics of peace-making but vision, told Reuters. “I don’t think West, from where Netanyahu is that 48% of Jewish Israelis asked not the logistics, the detail and the that he sees himself as the next Ahmad Tibi, a prominent Arab campaigning for the September 17 said they were in favour if supported emotional subtext of the politics on prime minister but he can set the Joint List member, told Agence Israeli election, are the United States by the Trump administration. Benny all sides. conditions for the next coalition France-Presse (AFP) that polls in- and the Israeli prime minister’s Gantz, Netanyahu’s rival and head of We’ve seen this time after time to define it as he wants, as he sees dicate that the main reason Arabs, unabashed supporter US President the main opposition Blue and White in the past three years. Trump’s fi t .” who make up some 960,000 eligi- Donald Trump. alliance, said it had been his grand love of grand personal gestures has In a step that alarmed Palestin- ble voters, abstain is a lack of con- It is in the person of this US presi- idea all along. fallen short with Afghanistan, North ian and other Arab leaders but fidence in parliament, with party dent that East and West gloriously Clearly, Trump’s somewhat casual Korea and China. The pattern is delighted his core right-wing con- divisions accounting for only 9%. meet, at least from Netanyahu’s per- attitude to agreed international clear: North Korea talks are stalled; stituency, Netanyahu announced The Blue and White alliance spective. After Modi’s decisive action principles — on conflict, disputed re- the part-reveal of the Middle East his intention to annex the Jordan is seeking votes from Israel’s on Kashmir, Trump responded: The gions, unilateral action — are central peace plan was a non-event. Few are Valley in the occupied West Bank. 140,000 Druze community. Many Indian leader feels he has the situa- to developments in disparate parts setting much store by the second It was, Israeli political com- Druze voted for Netanyahu’s Li- tion “under control.” The hands-off of the world. Add to that this US instalment, due right after the Israeli mentators said, an attempt to kud in recent years but the major- US approach to unilateral action on administration’s frivolous approach elections. draw votes from far-right parties. ity opted for Gantz in April, said a disputed territory must surely be to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as a The art of the deal seems still to Netanyahu’s annexation remarks Yusri Khaizran, a specialist in Mid- reassuring for Netanyahu. It leaves whole. Can there be anything more elude Trump. Thus far, the number weren’t challenged by Gantz. In dle Eastern history at Jerusalem’s open the possibility that any Israeli derisory than Trump’s announce- of just and sustainable deals he’s fact, his party claimed ownership Hebrew University. move to annex almost 30% of the ment that his new Middle East done for the United States — or any- of it. He said the vote will be similar West Bank will not be resisted by the peace envoy will be 30-year-old Avi one else — can be reduced to a single “Blue and White has made clear this time. “It’s mainly because of Trump administration. Berkowitz? number. Zero. that the Jordan Valley is part of the feeling of frustration of the Even without Kashmir-grab as a Berkowitz is a former aide to Israel forever. Netanyahu drafted Druze, who feel betrayed by the template, it has become increasingly the US president’s son-in-law Rashmee Roshan Lall is a columnist a plan to cede the Jordan Valley nation-state law,” Khaizran told apparent that Trump is not minded Jared Kushner. His role was once for The Arab Weekly. Her blog can be in 2014,” the party said in a state- AFP. to censor Israeli unilateralism described by former White House found at www.rashmee.com and she ment. “We are happy that the towards disputed territories. In fact, Communications Director Hope is on Twitter: @rashmeerl. prime minister has come around (With news agencies) September 15, 2019 5 News & Analysis Lebanon

Hezbollah, Israeli brinkmanship continues in the face of ratcheting tensions

Simon Speakman Cordall all of which have been attributed to Israel. However, tensions appear to have Tunis escalated. Hezbollah fighters claimed to have shot down an Israeli drone on he conflict between Hezbol- September 9 over Ramyeh in south- lah and Lebanon’s neighbour ern Lebanon. A week earlier, Hezbol- Israel has escalated, with the lah and Israeli forces exchanged fire T exchange of fire over what in an apparent response to an Israeli might be a situation creeping towards drone entering Lebanese airspace to open warfare. drop incendiary material on a border However, analysts cautioned forest. against reading too much into recent There has been an accompanying exchanges between Israeli forces and war of words. Beyond the expected Hezbollah in a contest that often re- denunciations by Lebanese Prime lies more on perceived threat than Minister Saad Hariri of alleged Israeli Growing wariness. Members of the Israeli security forces stand at a checkpoint near the northern tangible action. incursions into Lebanese airspace Israeli town of Avivim, close to the border with Lebanon, September 1. (AFP) have been proclamations by Hezbol- Jack Kennedy, lah General-Secretary Hassan Nasral- Iran and with its fighters experienced That attack was by no means cer- [Israeli Military Intelligence Director senior analyst for MENA lah, who threatened strikes against by their deployment into Syria. tain, he said. Given Hezbollah’s re- Herzi] Halevi’s threat of making Leb- at IHS Markit Israeli drones over Lebanese terri- Israel’s wariness is likely justified, liance on Iran, it is unlikely to be anon ‘a country of refugees’ becomes tory. Jack Kennedy, senior analyst for goaded into war without Tehran’s very real.” Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin MENA at IHS Markit, said. sanction. “Hezbollah is very much For a US administration that has “The Hezbollah arsenal is Netanyahu, emboldened by what “Hezbollah has between around the tip of Iran’s spear,” Kennedy said. consistently backtracked or contra- not highly accurate but it’s he is said to regard as the unflinch- 120,000 and 150,000 rockets,” he said. “[It is] unlikely to deploy that casu- dicted itself on foreign policy issues, the consideration that Iran ing support of US President Donald “However, it’s not just the number of ally. Not least when Iran is counter- Mekelberg said, expecting consist- is trying to introduce that Trump, has been accused of capital- arms Hezbollah has, it’s their quality. ing threats on a much wider, global, ency is hazardous. capability that is partly driving ising on Israel’s tensions with Hez- “The Hezbollah arsenal is not high- scale.” “You really don’t know what Israeli willingness to carry out bollah as he seeks re-election and ly accurate but it’s the consideration It was a view echoed by Chatham they’re going to do,” he said. “Right strikes.” possible prosecution on corruption that Iran is trying to introduce that House’s Yossi Mekelberg, who said: now, Trump is making noises about charges. capability that is partly driving Israeli “However, just because it’s a war that meeting (Iranian President Hassan) Almost since the beginning of Hez- Despite the political vitriol, direct willingness to carry out strikes.” no one wants doesn’t mean there’s no Rohani. Say he does that ahead of the bollah’s deployment in support of conflict between Hezbollah and the “Of course, Israel has missile de- chance of them going to war. Leba- 2020 US elections and position him- Syrian President Bashar Assad, Syria Israelis has been practically nonex- fence systems but probably not non exists in a near state of chaos, self as the great peacemaker. What’s has served as a conduit for weapons istent since the war of 2006, which enough to withstand that level of at- there’s no central state, which means Netanyahu going to do then, assum- channelled from Iran to Hezbollah. saw both sides take heavy casualties. tack and, politically, it’s not clear if there’s little to restrain Hezbollah. ing he wins re-election himself?” That is not lost on Israel, with numer- Since then, Hezbollah has grown into they could absorb the level of casu- “At some point, at any time, a Hez- ous unclaimed strikes on Hezbollah- one of the most potent non-state mi- alties an attack by Hezbollah might bollah fighter could shoot the wrong Simon Speakman Cordall is a controlled arms factories in Syria, litias in the world, well-equipped by cause,” he said. person at the wrong time and then freelance writer. Viewpoint Hariri is telling the world: Hezbollah is your problem, not ours

t is remarkable that Leba- What can be understood of reiterating. Lebanon and Israel. Washington nese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s comments only weeks Aoun says the party’s weapons sends its envoy to the region, Hariri addressed the after his return from a controver- are Lebanese in their agenda of bearing in mind that the success Mohamad Kawas international community to sial trip to the United States is defending the country and that of his mission requires dispelling declare that the problem of that he is gradually seeking an they are a structural part of its the possibility of a new Israeli Hezbollah’s weapons is a internationalisation of the defence system that should not war against Hezbollah in Iregional and international issue, Hezbollah issue, not in the sense be rejected but protected by the Lebanon. No serious strategy can not a Lebanese one. that might provoke the anger of state and the government. be adopted to close the border His announcement may the Lebanese domestic scene but While Hariri speaks of the file, open energy exploration in indirectly coincide with Leba- in the strategic sense of what is “problem” that the decision of Lebanese waters and activate the nese President Michel Aoun’s being cooked up for the region. war and peace is in the hands of energy project in the Eastern discovery that local and interna- We can only understand from Hezbollah, Aoun does not see it Mediterranean region without tional conditions have changed Hariri’s logic that he is calling on that way and does not believe seriously addressing the case of and no longer call for an internal the international community to there is a need for internal Hezbollah in Lebanon. dialogue to find a defence relieve Lebanon, with all of its dialogue to develop a defensive Israel continues to bring up the strategy to protect Lebanon. political currents, sects and strategy that would end the file of Hezbollah’s rocket It is also noteworthy that institutions, from the task of phenomenon of Hezbollah’s factories and is militarily Hezbollah did not comment on confronting a phenomenon that weapons being outside the state threatening the famous Tehran- Hariri’s remarks to US cable news has arisen for reasons beyond system. Beirut corridor. The gas explora- channel CNBC about what was Lebanon’s control and having to “Hezbollah is a regional tion operations eagerly antici- understood to be his govern- do with the policies adopted by problem,” said Hariri. Accord- pated by Washington, France, ment’s disavowing the Hezbol- the international community in ingly, he is demanding the Italy, Russia and Mediterranean lah’s weapons and behaviour. dealing with Iran and its regime controversy over the role of countries are ready to begin and Hezbollah also remained quiet for four decades. Hezbollah raised by Washington release one of the world’s largest about Hariri’s submitting the However, what Hariri was and its allies should not be new riches. issue to a level of treatment that saying is fundamentally differ- linked to what this world can do Arrangements are being made goes beyond the capabilities of ent from Aoun’s discourse. Some to rid Lebanon of its economic for the Syrian issue as well and the Lebanese state and places of the opinions expressed by burdens. the recent Turkish threats of the problem within the scope of Hariri’s inner political circle and While there is much talk about releasing waves of refugee the US conflict with Iran. Hezbol- even by his wider circles that are tying up the release of the loans migration towards Europe seem lah’s weapons have been deemed hesitantly reaching out to and grants garnered by the to have reawakened the world’s legitimate in a statement by the yesterday’s allies are in play CEDRE Conference and the attention to the region. In fact, Council of Ministers. here. generosity of donor countries to files keep piling up in such a way Hariri was telling international These circles say Hezbollah’s certain conditions requiring the that places Hezbollah and its role capitals interested in Lebanon’s weapons have confiscated the Lebanese state to rein in Hezbol- within them under closer affairs, its stability, its role in the prestige of the state and the lah and seize its weapons, Hariri scrutiny. region, its economy and energy unity of its decision on funda- throws the hot potato into the By what is being leaked of reserves at the bottom of its mental issues of sovereignty. The lap of the world and donor Hariri’s declarations, the matter continental waters that Hezbol- weapons glorify the culture of countries using the simple logic requires the involvement of the lah does not rule the country but the mini-state, threaten the that “it is your problem, not international community. Hariri is calling on the controls the decision of war and country’s internal cohesion and ours.” However, Lebanon must decide international peace in it. shake its internal stability. They In the US effort, led by David whether it wants the world to He was delivering to whom it contribute to the chaos and total Schenker, the US assistant deal with it as an independent community to relieve may concern the message that, disregard for the country’s secretary of state for Near state or whether it wants the Lebanon from the as head of the government of an institutions, its standing in the Eastern Affairs, there are world to accept the status quo task of confronting a independent, sovereign country, world and its foreign relations. indications that the United and bless Hezbollah’s tutelage he was confirming that Hezbol- By considering the issue of States’ new working rules will be over the country just like it once phenomenon that has lah’s address was not in Leba- Hezbollah’s weapons as an dealing with Lebanon and blessed the tutelage of the arisen for reasons non, that the party’s decisions external one, Hariri is saying he Hezbollah as separate cases. Damascus regime. come from outside the country does not believe in the necessity Washington is activating its beyond Lebanon’s and that it cannot be dealt with of them for Lebanon’s defence, mediation to end the land and Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese control. from within Lebanon. contrary to what Aoun has been sea borders dispute between writer. 6 September 15, 2019 Opinion

Editorial Desertification danger looms in MENA region

ew Delhi has been the site of a UN conference on the environment attended by representatives from most of the world’s countries. It is the latest in a seeming litany of climate-change gatherings that have dotted the Ninternational and diplomatic landscape since well before the Paris climate accord. What set this one apart? Something that directly touches almost everyone in the MENA region: desertification. Land degradation affects the vast majority of our region, the Arab Centre for the Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands said, and thus most MENA countries backed the UN Convention to Combat Desertifica- tion when it was established decades ago. However, as more land becomes bereft of life across Africa and the Middle East, because of climate change and related factors such as defor- estation, the United Nations warned that a rise in “climate refugees,” the disintegration of families and the threat of violent conflicts over dwindling resources could be just over the horizon. Here, and elsewhere across certain latitudes, there can be no doubt that once-productive ground under our feet is getting hotter, drier and deadlier. The conference in New Delhi tackled practical measures that can be taken to salvage — and in some cases revitalise — the degraded resources that remain. © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly Attendees in India attempted to address the human cost. From more droughts to angrier land-rights disputes to dustier dust storms, they outlined a range of Plan Bs, all of which seem destined to become Plan As as worst-case scenarios Tunisia’s freedom cushion seem to get grimmer by the day. It’s an ongoing worldwide narrative. The human tendency for procrastination seems determined to is not enough doom our species but the often-maligned profit motive may be our saving grace, standing ready to inspire the world to unite for a common cause. Oussama Romdhani As just one of many examples, a report from the In the years to come, Tunisia’s population problem will remain its unquenchable Global Commission on Adaptation pointed out that a decade’s worth of investing in efforts to help thirst for a decent quality of life even when opportunities remain remote. localities adapt to climate change would likely result in an almost fourfold return ($1.8 trillion t is easy to understand seemed, however, to increase Democracy is not a domain would yield $7.1 trillion in economic benefits). The desertification conference may not have why Tunisian voters their frustrations more than reserved for the sophisticated revealed one “magic pill” to solve the global are unhappy with the the means of overcoming or the well-educated. Free climate crisis but nearly 200 countries focusing on nation’s political elites. them. More than 15% of the expression has made parts of the same cause, and a cause that could help MENA Successive governments population has remained the elite recognise the degree avert untold disaster if successfully addressed, is have failed to breathe unemployed with one-third of their disconnect from clearly a step in the right direction. Inew life into the nation’s stag- of that group being university unpolished segments of the nant economy, while politi- graduates. GDP growth of population. cians constantly accuse each about 1% can hardly create The practice of freedom Oppression of women other of corruption in ways enough employment. has, for eight years, cushioned that could only give politics a For eight years or so, while the pressure of the daily extends into Iran bad name. there have been competent grind. People could express From a wider perspective, and well-intentioned senior their discontent about the football stadiums the discontent is very much officials and civil servants, government’s failures even a confirmation of the long- there were too many inept or if nothing was done about running clash between inexperienced politicians at them. They can back the most elf-immolation is a recurrent manifesta- Tunisians’ unbridled the helm of the ship of state. outrageous of candidates if tion of despair in the North Africa and ambitions and the limited Many in government were ill- they choose but, at the end of Middle East region. It often has to do with opportunities they see equipped to meet demands of the day, they still have to cope unemployment and lack of opportunity. available to them. the restless population except with stubborn socio-economic Recently, another tragedy occurred in For Tunisian youth, the through big-spending policies realities and the terrorist threat Iran for a different set of reasons. reality check is often as they could not really afford lurking behind. SSahar Khodayari, 29, set herself on fire and died and promises they definitely September 9 as a result of her injuries. unpleasant as unconvincing. In the years to come, Tunisia’s Last March, Khodayari, who suffered, her family Any discomfort in life is felt as could not fulfil. population problem will remain said, from bipolar disorder, had tried to enter both unfair and unacceptable Many of the country’s youth its unquenchable thirst for a Tehran’s Azadi Stadium to watch a football game. but, in a country of scarce who had evolved in Tunisia’s decent quality of life even when During a court appearance in September the resources, the quest for hotbeds of restlessness and opportunities remain remote. young football fan apparently panicked as she economic growth and job despair have been knocking There are bound also to be learned she could be sentenced to six months in creation is bound to be at the gates of the country’s disappointments in the flawed prison. an uphill struggle for the politics. Some, during the last democratic process as well as Amnesty International said that “Iran is the government, any government. election campaign, backed possible new worries about only country in the world that stops and punishes That has been the case since the most implausible of a turbulent neighbourhood women” seeking to enter football stadiums. candidates, many of whom “What happened to Sahar Khodayari is heart- independence with very outside their control. breaking and exposes the impact of the Iranian few moments of respite. were running on the most Newly elected politicians have authorities’ appalling contempt for women’s For decades, the economic implausible of platforms. the duty of shoring up their own rights in the country,” Amnesty International situation in Tunisia has mostly The same poor and credibility by introducing higher said. wavered between tough and disadvantaged constituencies ethical standards in their own FIFA is reportedly working with Tehran to end tougher. who have been prone to ranks. In the final analysis, they the ban before October 10 when Iran’s football The proverbial social radicalisation and the must work harder at improving squad plays Cambodia in a World Cup qualifier. elevator, the one that was temptations of trafficking and the lives of Tunisians. That Tehran is not forthcoming. Ali Rabiei defended supposed to take Tunisia’s illegal migration could readily means relying more on authorities’ stance, saying: “Social issues need to youth places, broke down accept the populist claims pragmatism and competence be resolved considering cultural principles and that Tunisia is a rich country the existing regulations.” in 2010, if not years before. than on ideological leaps of faith What he did not address was the discriminatory Young people, including the whose natural resources or conspiracy theories. That mindset driving Iran’s clergymen who continue to highly educated among them, have been stolen by Western means motivating Tunisians to call the shots. had a tough time accepting powers and local corrupt go back to work to help create “The situation in the stadiums is not suitable for the closed horizons at home stooges. the economic riches that no women and there is no doubt that the youth’s or abroad. For many young The past election campaign foreign country can ever steal mingling and freedom are the source of many people, the line between was not short of revelations. from them. moral and social problems. In addition, in some frustration and despair was The legislative contest that is Regardless of who ultimately sports, what men wear is not proper for women [to thin. Their discontent-inspired about to unfold is unlikely to has more constitutional watch],” Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi rebellion led to the fall of the be any different. Experienced prerogatives, whether it is was quoted as saying. Ben Ali regime. Since then, politicians are acknowledging the new president, the new Iranian Prosecutor-General Hojjat-ol Eslam Mohammad Jafar Montazeri was even more disillusionment was as big as their abrupt discovery of parliament members or the new specific, saying: “When a woman goes to the their hopes. The continuing the country’s new mindsets. prime minister, government stadium and sees half-naked men in sports economic slowdown further For many Western-educated leaders must know that they clothing, sin is committed.” limited their prospects for jobs elites, it is a rude awakening cannot count on freedom as The shockwave created in Iran by the self-immo- and opportunities. European to the fact the river of the only cushion for voters’ lation of the young reflects the growing resent- visa and migration restrictions hostility to the West and discontent. They must achieve ment by Iranians of such an anachronistic stance. did the rest. ultraconservative temptations tangible progress on the bread- Nowhere in the Middle East and North Africa do What changed, however, runs deep. “With the lid off and-butter front. That’s why violations of women’s rights attain Iran’s was the climate of freedom. the cauldron, we are now they were elected in the first extremes. Tragedies such as Sahar Khodayari’s Tangible and undeniable, discovering the raw emotions place. should serve as a reminder in the Arab and Muslim world that serious progress on women’s rights is it exponentially expanded and unsuspected realities,” still needed. their ability to express a senior official recently told Oussama Romdhani is Editor- themselves. In so doing, it me. in-Chief of The Arab Weekly. September 15, 2019 7 Opinion

Whither goes US policy in Iran after Bolton? Published by Al Arab Publishing House

Khairallah Khairallah Publisher What happened with Bolton underscores the fears of more than one and Group Executive Editor Arab party that dealt with the Trump administration. Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD Editor-in-Chief ohn Bolton’s dismissal Those militias serve as the United States is ready tied to Trump alone, even Oussama Romdhani as US President Don- extensions of Iran’s Islamic for a dialogue with Iran in though he is the president ald Trump’s national Revolutionary Guard Corps the direction of a new deal and he can do whatever he security adviser poses and carry out all the tasks acceptable to both sides. wants. In addition to the Managing Editor far more questions required of them. Iran will consider that the State Department, there are Iman Zayat than it answers. Per- The victims of these militias agreement about its nuclear the American military and Jhaps the first burning ques- tend to be Iraqis or Syrians or file will be unchanged and security establishment, which Deputy Managing Editor tion is whether there will be a Lebanese or Yemenis, who are that its biggest victory will understand what it means and Online Editor change in the US administra- sacrificed for the glory of Iran, be the lifting of US sanctions. to surrender to Iran. There Mamoon Alabbasi tion’s policy towards Iran. the same Iran that aspires to In contrast, the Trump is also Vice-President Mike It is no secret that Bolton one day strike a deal with the administration will consider Pence who, despite having Senior Editor was one of the hawks and “Greater Satan” (the United that it has been able to no real powers, remains a his primary concern was States) or the “Lesser Satan” introduce substantial changes symbol of the American tough John Hendel confronting Iran and its (Israel). to the nuclear agreement to stand on Iran, at least from an Chief Copy Editor policies. It is not known There are two schools of plug the gaps that made the ideological point of view. whether, by firing Bolton, thought in Washington. One original one unacceptable in A final point remains to be Richard Pretorius Trump had decided to pave says Trump is setting up the first place. made related to the outcome of Copy Editors the way for a meeting with dialogue with Iran and that It doesn’t matter whether the Israeli election September Iranian President Hassan these talks are inevitable, that is true. What is important 17. The vote will be crucial Stephen Quillen Rohani on the sidelines of the given the US president’s is that Trump has avoided a to Israeli Prime Minister Kyle Arensdorf UN General Assembly. desire to avoid military military confrontation that Binyamin Netanyahu’s future It has been reported confrontation that would would end his hopes of re- and he is for taking a very East/West Section Editor that Iran had put Bolton’s obliterate his hope of being election. tough stance on the Iranian Mahmud el-Shafey (London) departure as a precondition re-elected in November 2020. Others, however, say nuclear file. for a US-Iran meeting. Bolton Defenders of this Bolton is not the Trump Bolton’s dismissal confirmed Gulf Section Editor has never concealed his hypothesis insist that Trump administration and that there that Trump is a very moody Mohammed Alkhereiji hostility to the Iranian regime, has no other concern but to will be no dramatic change in person. Why bring a person which Trump did not hesitate return to the White House Washington’s Iranian policy, known for his extreme Society and Travel to describe as “terrorist.” for a second term, even if especially the sanctions. They positions on Iran to the White Sections Editor It is not important to have the price to pay is the policy assert there is a guarantee House as national security Samar Kadi the man who never liked towards Iran that he had that this hard-line policy adviser if the plan was to make the Islamic Republic and laid out at the beginning of towards Iran will continue as a U-turn in your policy just to who knew but too well the his term and culminated in long as Mike Pompeo remains stay in the White House for Senior Correspondents dangers represented by its tearing up the nuclear deal secretary of state. another four years? That is, if expansionist project removed that Iran had struck in July Only time will tell which it turns out that a change in Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) from office. The important 2015 when Barack Obama school of thought will win American policy was behind Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) thing is whether there will be was in the White House. The but we can be certain that the expulsion of Bolton. a change in the US position on current US president has Pompeo remains a guarantor What happened with Regular Columnists sanctions against Iran. always said that agreement of continuity in US policy Bolton underscores the fears Rashmee Roshan Lall Time has shown that the was the “worst deal” that towards Iran. The secretary of more than one Arab party Claude Salhani sanctions have had a far could be reached with Iran. of state did not hesitate to that dealt with the Trump Yavuz Baydar greater effect than previously Trump laid the foundations expose Iran and what it is administration, in the sense thought and that they have of his Iranian policy in a doing at home and in the that the man is not the type Correspondents served their purpose, which is speech he gave one year into region, such that Bolton had who can be trusted, period. to clamp down on Tehran. his presidency, providing an become a secondary figure It would probably be best to Nazli Tarzi (London) Because of the US exhaustive list of the crimes of in the Iranian file as the US think the situation through Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) sanctions, Iran can no longer the Iranian regime since 1979. State Department recovered before deciding to place eggs (London) continue with its expansionist Some say that Trump has the initiative and its role in in the American basket. Dunia El-Zobaidi project using the sectarian no principles, that he is just American foreign policy. Roua Khlifi (Tunis) militias it established in Iraq, a salesman looking after Most important, US policy Khairallah Khairallah is a Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. his own interest and that towards Iran is no longer Lebanese writer. Chief Designer Marwen el-Hmedi

Designers Palestinian peace plan postponed indefinitely Ibrahim Ben Bechir Hanen Jebali Claude Salhani Regardless of the outcome of the Israeli vote, we are now Contact editor at: entering the nebular zone of American politics. [email protected]

istening to US Presi- And God runs out crying and before moving into the White The rationale is that the dent Donald Trump saying: “Not in MY lifetime, House, naively thinking he perception of fairness towards talk about a Mid- Bibi.” could have it wrapped up the Palestinians could imperil dle East peace plan The sad thing about this shortly after being sworn in. Netanyahu’s chances of re- Al Arab Publishing House along with the inten- anecdote is how truthful it is. Even more naive was election. Regardless of the Quadrant Building tion of Israeli Prime Since entering office in 2017, Trump, who thought he could outcome of the Israeli vote, we 177-179 Hammersmith Road LMinister Binyamin Netanyahu Trump had persisted in talking insult the Palestinians by are now entering the nebular London W6 8BS for the annexation of Pales- about an undefined path appearing to be bluntly pro- zone of American politics — tinian lands along the shores that would lead to a lasting Israeli, by shutting down the presidential elections — a time of the Jordan Valley reminds peaceful solution to the Israeli- Palestinian representation when nothing seems to exist me of a popular anecdote told Palestinian conflict. However, bureau in Washington and, outside Washington Beltway Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 around the region. unlike previous US presidents, most important, by moving politics. Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 It goes like this: Trump, Trump has devoted very little the US Embassy from Tel Aviv The 2020 US presidential Russian President Vladimir time to a very complex and to Jerusalem and still believe elections will justify another Putin and Netanyahu are difficult issue, one that has he could act as an impartial postponement. While granted an exclusive audience stumped several residents of arbiter in this very sensitive Netanyahu is pursuing US Publisher: with God. They have time for the Oval Office. dossier. annexation policies with The Arab Weekly USA LLC. a single question each. Trump This includes President This explains why Trump the support of Trump, no goes first, thanks the Almighty Bill Clinton, who learnt the has been dragging his feet in American presidential [email protected] for his time and asks: “When intricacies of the decades-old revealing details of his peace candidate is supposed to [email protected] will America be great again?” dispute so well that he could initiative. reflect any empathy towards God replies, “Not in your draw a perfect map of the area Trump promised to unveil the Palestinians. Any shade of Tel: 248-679-6624 lifetime, Donald.” Trump in question from memory, his plan after invoking empathy of that kind is seen as leaves the room crying. including zones known as Area Ramadan as a timeframe and toxic. Putin goes in next and A, Area B and Area C. More to avoid creating interference It is true politicians are says: “Thank you for the important, he understood with the scheduled Israeli keen on self-preservation and opportunity. I must say that I what they meant. elections earlier this year. electoral success. Shortsighted did not believe you existed for The foundations of the He is procrastinating more. calculations do not guarantee so many years…” Israeli-Palestinian dispute The excuse this time is more even US and Israeli interests. Subscription & Advertising: God interrupts him: “Your are so solidly anchored in the scheduled Israeli elections. Peace in the Middle East does [email protected] question, please.” hatred and mistrust that each We open yet another regardless of what pollsters Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 “My question is: When will side retains of “the other” that negative chapter in the Israeli- could tell you. Russia become as influential as they render peace becoming Palestinian conflict, one that And God ran out of the room was the USSR?” a reality all that much harder. will complicate the problem shedding a tear for another Mohamed Al Mufti “Not in your lifetime, Clinton ran out of time and further. Indeed, Netanyahu failed attempt at peacemaking. Marketing & Advertising Vladimir,” says God. Putin was forced to abandon his promised to annex more Manager goes out crying. efforts at peacemaking in the Palestinian lands if he wins Claude Salhani is a regular Netanyahu goes in next Middle East. this election. If that were to columnist for The Arab Weekly Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 and asks the Lord: “Dear God, Ditto for President Barack occur, you can certainly kiss and a senior fellow at the www.alarab.co.uk when will there be peace in the Obama, who kicked off his goodbye any hope of peace in Institute of World Affairs in Middle East?” peacemaking initiative months the foreseeable future. Washington. 8 September 15, 2019 News & Analysis Syria Idlib fighting and Turkish ‘safe zone’ plans throw cloud

No solution in sight. A Turkish military vehicle is driven near the town of Maer Hatat in northern Syria’s Idlib province, August 20. over Syria summit (AFP) Syrian opposition hopes dashed as Idlib turns into giant chessboard

Sami Moubayed territorial swap did not happen, how- ever, because a veto from Damascus nearly destroyed the Russian-Turkish Beirut honeymoon. Furious, Erdogan sent arms and fighters to Idlib in early June, he city of Idlib, in north-west- determined to postpone — or obstruct ern Syria, is starting to look — a Russian victory. more like a giant chessboard Erdogan has mellowed since, after T than an actual battlefield, be- relations soured with the United States ing played out by Russian President when it was made clear to him that his Vladimir Putin and Turkish President safe zone would be a fraction of what Recep Tayyip Erdogan. he originally wanted and that it would Contrary to what many in the Syrian certainly not contain a green light to opposition had hoped, the two sides hunt down Syrian Kurds on American did not collide after Syrian government payroll. troops targeted a Turkish convoy head- That tension has swiftly returned ing towards Idlib on August 19. Erdogan into the Russian orbit. The Caught in the middle. A young Syrian boy gazes from a small hilltop at the makeshift camp where he Instead, they downplayed the inci- two sides have jump-started coordina- currently lives in the northern countryside of the Idlib province. (AFP) dent, with Ankara stressing the convoy tion on Idlib or what many are calling was headed to protect a Turkish obser- “ice cream diplomacy” and talks are Thomas Seibert Turkey is a sponsor of rebel groups ing ahead of the Ankara summit, vation point, rather than to fight Rus- under way to transfer three of the 12 fighting Damascus. Assad has Turkey reiterated a threat to send sian and Syrian forces. On August 28, Turkish observation points in Idlib to vowed to win back all parts of the troops into part of north-eastern a photo of Putin and Erdogan eating the Russian Army before December. Istanbul country but Ankara wants to keep Syria under the control of the Unit- ice cream at an air show near Moscow They had originally been set up via its influence within Syria to secure ed States and the Kurdish People’s went viral on social media. the Astana process in 2018, much to n alliance of Turkey, Rus- a role in any post-war negotiations. Protection Units (YPG) militia. The This was just days after Russia- the displeasure of Syrian officialdom sia and Iran aimed at The role of the United States, YPG has been a vital US partner in backed Syrian troops stormed the but with the full blessing of its three ending the war in Syria which is excluded from the Astana the fight against the Islamic State strategic city of Khan Sheikhoun, re- guarantors: Putin, Erdogan and Ro- A is under pressure ahead format but controls much of east- but is seen as a terrorist group by taking it from Turkey-supported Syr- hani. of a summit meeting as tensions ern Syria with the help of Kurdish Ankara. ian rebels, raising legitimate concerns The first is Point 8, near the city grow over fighting in the last rebel partners, is another complicat- Turkey and the United States among Syrian fighters that they had of Maaret al-Nu’man, north of Khan stronghold in Syria. ing factor. Russia is keen to push reached an agreement in principle been sold out to the Russians, just as Sheikhoun. The second is Point 9 at The leaders of the trio, united the United States out of Syria and last month to set up a “safe zone” happened to them in Aleppo in 2016 Murek, 12km from Khan Sheikhoun. in the so-called Astana process to loosen Ankara’s already frayed ties in the YPG area that would address and in East Ghouta last year. That outpost has been besieged by the bring peace to Syria, are to meet in with the West. security concerns by both Turkey “There is no under-the-table agree- Syrians since late August. The third Ankara on September 16 for their Before the Ankara meeting, the and the Kurds, who fear that Tur- ment between Turkey and Russia on transfer is to Point 10, south of Idlib fifth summit since they started Syrian Observatory for Human key wants to destroy their autono- Idlib,” insisted former Turkish Foreign city. their initiative in 2017. Turkish Rights, a UK-based monitor, said my in northern Syria. Minister Yasar Yakis, saying the Rus- In exchange for abandoning the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, government warplanes bombed The agreement said the zone sians were trying to persuade Turkey three stations, Erdogan wants new Russian President Vladimir Putin the southern Idlib countryside de- could be used to resettle Syrian to allow the Syrians to go after terror- ones at Neirab (south of Ariha), Mahna- and Iranian President Hassan Ro- spite a truce. Mohammad Rashid, refugees from Turkey. Erdogan has ists in Idlib. bal (west of Ariha), Jisr al-Shughour hani are expected to review plans spokesman for the Jaysh al-Nasr said around 1 million Syrians could “Their positions are clearly diver- (overlooking the Syrian coast) and al- to set up a constitutional commit- rebel faction, said the raids intensi- be housed there and has asked the gent,” he told The Arab Weekly, adding Mastouma (south-west of Idlib). They tee for Syria. fied after strikes on a few positions European Union to support the that when Erdogan and Putin meet in also hope to enlarge and reinforce Launching the committee, a in rural areas of western Idlib. plan. Turkish and US troops carried Ankara on September 16, with Iranian their observation point at Maer Hatat body planned since early 2018 that Simon Waldman, an associate out their first joint military land pa- President Hassan Rohani, they will (south of Maaret al-Nu’man), mean- is expected to have a total of 150 fellow at the Henry Jackson Soci- trol in northern Syria this month. “find middle ground between Turkey’s ing the recently liberated city of Khan members from the government, ety in London and a visiting fellow Turkish Foreign Minister Mev- legitimate worries and the right of the Sheikhoun and its vicinity would be the opposition and civil society, in Middle Eastern Studies at King’s lut Cavusoglu said on September Syrian government to extend its sover- cleared from any rebel presence, keep- has long eluded the Astana trio. College London, said while Turkey 12 that Ankara was growing impa- eignty to the totality of its territory.” ing it permanently in government con- The committee would be tasked could hope for concessions from tient and that the United States had Those worries are focused on eradi- trol. with writing a new basic law and Russia on the Idlib issue, it was started “a stalling process.” cating the Kurdish threat on the Syrian- By the end of the year, the Russians could prepare elections for Syria. far from clear if those concessions Erdogan said earlier that Turkey Turkish border, something that seems also hope to secure the M4 and M5 However, efforts by Ankara, Mos- would change much on the ground. would act alone if the safe zone to haunt Erdogan. The Turkish presi- highways, linking Aleppo to Latakia cow and Tehran to form a united “Ankara often gets such so-called was not established by the end of dent has long abandoned the dream and Hama, respectively. That would front to bring the war to an end af- commitments from Moscow; how- September, a warning Cavusoglu of maintaining permanent military achieve what their operation was ter more than eight years are under ever, what happens in Syria is de- repeated on September 10. presence in Idlib, seeing it as too costly, originally launched for in April: re- stress as their conflicting interests termined on the developments on Russia and Iran have both voiced both politically and militarily, given gaining control of all main highways to in Syria come to the fore. the ground where Russia’s priority reservations against a US-Turkish that it lies deep within Putin’s sphere of facilitate trade to and from Damascus, Oytan Orhan, coordinator of Le- is the victory of the Assad regime “safe zone” but Waldman said influence, west of the Euphrates River. while squeezing the armed opposition vant Studies at the Centre for Mid- rather than Turkish interests,” Turkish-US tensions were to Rus- He wouldn’t mind a return of Syrian of- out of the Idlib and Hama countryside dle Eastern Studies, a think-tank in Waldman said via e-mail. sia’s benefit. ficialdom to the province but certainly into a tighter area that is easier to mon- Ankara, said, although it was pos- Turkey opposes the government “The reality is that Turkey deep- not before extracting maximum con- itor and control. sible that the meeting produces an offensive in Idlib because it fears ly distrusts the United States and cessions from the Kremlin. A full recapture of the city will likely agreement on the constitutional defeat of rebel groups it supports. will accept nothing less than for Last April, Erdogan turned a blind not happen before 2020 but that de- committee, developments in Syria Ankara is also concerned about a Washington to abandon the YPG, eye to the first stage of the Idlib opera- pends on Erdogan’s cooperation. For could “cripple the political pro- possible influx of up to 1 million something which Washington is tion, letting the Russians eradicate the now, redeployment is on the table, cess.” refugees from Syria. Erdogan said loth to do,” Waldman wrote. fighters of Idlib, even those formerly with partial retreat in certain pockets, Gains by Russia-backed govern- Turkey, which already hosts 3.6 “Ankara is not in the mood for on Turkish payroll. In exchange, he but not a total withdrawal. That won’t ment forces in the north-western million Syrians, could not stomach comprising over the safe zone. All expected a green light to march on the happen before Erdogan gets his safe province of Idlib had “changed the another wave of refugees. Moscow needs to do is sit back and city of Ras al-Ayn, on Syria’s northern zone from the Russians — in whatever military balance,” Orhan said by European nations, wary of a watch US-Turkish relations to fur- border with Turkey. form and shape — with a go-ahead to telephone. “Russia wants the re- new uptick in numbers of refugees ther deteriorate and pick up the This is where Kurdish separatists had march on the Kurds. turn of government forces to bor- reaching EU member Greece in pieces. fled from Afrin last year, he claimed, der areas.” recent weeks, are watching nerv- stressing that the Syrian city was vital Sami Moubayed is a Syrian historian While Russia and Iran support ously. Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly for his safe zone, which includes Ja- and author of “Under the Black Flag” Syrian President Bashar Assad, While the crisis in Idlib was brew- correspondent. rabulus, al-Bab, Azaz and Afrin. That (IB Tauris, 2015). September 15, 2019 9 News & Analysis Syria Assad clips wings of rich cousin amid concerns over growing influence

Special Correspondent financial records. By early Septem- to air force pilot Hafez Assad, who ber, his shares in Syriatel, Syria’s became defence minister in 1966 first GSM operator, were seized by and president of the country from Damascus the Syrian government. 1971-2000. Duty-free shops he owns were Makhlouf’s father, Mohammad, umours have been circulat- grabbed by authorities at Damas- played an instrumental role in the ing concerning the disman- cus Airport and at Syria’s borders smooth transfer of power to Hafez’s tling of Syrian tycoon Rami with Jordan and Lebanon. So was a son, Bashar, in June 2000, serving R Makhlouf’s business em- charity organisation-turned militia as paternal uncle and “spiritual pire at the direct orders of his cous- called al-Bustan, which Makhlouf godfather” to the then-34-year-old in, Syria President Bashar Assad. had bankrolled since 2011. president. Syria watchers were unsure of Al-Bustan ran a force of 10,000 Bashar Assad heavily relied on what to make of the news, consider- militants, which government troops Mohammad Makhlouf’s advice ing the lack of official reaction from relied on for operations in Aleppo, during his first years in power, es- Damascus. Pro-regime media out- Ghouta and Idlib. The militia has pecially during the 2003 US-led lets trumpeted the story but none been disbanded. invasion of Iraq and after the 2005 published official confirmation. Makhlouf neither resisted nor assassination of Lebanese Prime Social media activists reported objected, putting himself fully at Minister Rafik Hariri. that Makhlouf, said to be the rich- Assad’s disposal, realising he had From 2000-10, Rami Makhlouf est man in Syria, fell out with Assad made a mistake by lying to his boss emerged as an influential figure after he was asked to provide $3 and benefactor. Partial surrender through whom all international billion in cash to the Syrian Presi- of his immense wealth — estimated firms wanting to do business in dency. That money was urgently ten years ago at $6 billion — was cer- Syria had to go, at fluctuating com- needed, he was told, to bankroll the tainly easier than a total collapse. mission rates. An April 2011 report military operation in Idlib. His crime was multifaceted and big in the Financial Times claimed and he knew it. Makhlouf controlled 60% of the In addition to lying, he had be- Syrian economy. Sources in Damascus said come too influential for the Assad It was known in Syria that stories about Makhlouf’s family’s liking and started to exert Makhlouf was on bad terms with As- house arrest were false and incredible influence on the Syrian sad’s brother, Maher, an influential Family feud? A 2010 file picture of Rami Makhlouf, a cousin of so were rumours that his economy. army officer, who may have advised Syrian President Bashar Assad and one of the country’s wealthiest father and brothers had The news of his collapse led a Bashar Assad to turn against him, businessmen. (AP) been confined to their dramatic hike in the exchange rate considering the 50-year-old busi- homes. of the Syrian pound, which jumped nessman had become too strong from 600 pounds to the US dollar to and independent for his liking. him a lesson. The men are lifelong which is earmarked to play a role in Makhlouf reportedly said he unprecedented 700 pounds in ten Had their mother Anisa Assad friends and cousins, only four years real estate development and recon- didn’t have that amount of money days. been alive, such a move would apart in age. struction when the war ends. at hand but Russian officials re- Sources in Damascus said stories have been more difficult, given her The punishment ended there, Al-Watan newspaper, which portedly told Assad: “His money about his house arrest were false, known affection for the Makhlouf however, since Makhlouf is ex- Makhlouf owns, remains in print. is in Russian banks. He can come however, and so were rumours that family. She died in early 2017, how- pected to play a role in Syria’s fu- His shares were untouched at the In- up with that amount in two-three his father and brothers had been ever, making it easier for her sons to ture. Makhlouf’s private office was ternational Islamic Bank, al-Baraka months.” confined to their homes. turn against Rami Makhlouf. unscratched and so was his private Bank, Cham Bank and Byblos Bank Authorities from the Syrian Min- The Makhlouf family has exerted Contrary to what many are say- residence. He was left in possession and so were the Choueifat School istry of Finance raided Makhlouf’s immense influence in Syria since ing, the Assads did not want to de- of Cham Holding, a mega-holding and the Syrian Private University, offices in Damascus, asking to see the marriage of its daughter Anisa stroy Makhlouf but only to teach company, and Bena Properties, which are owned by Makhlouf.

Viewpoint Foreign journalists, politicians join Syria’s propaganda tours

ountries in war can absurdity were documented by without marriage. argument as those on tour are make surprising a member of the tour, Gareth Recent tours by French and mocked and criticised by estab- tourist destinations. Browne, who wrote a series of British far-right figures struck lished journalists and analysts? James Snell This is one objective dispatches for the National similar notes. Thierry Mariani, The latter risks spreading the of the Syrian describing what Cox termed a member of Marine Le Pen’s propaganda in question government. It “the crazy club.” far-right National Rally party, further, amid a cloud of Cwants to forge an incongruous Less critical comment has tweeted about the French wine acrimony. association with the leisure of been elicited by the members he was enjoying near Sednaya Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a travel. Its borders admit of a tour presently in progress. on a similar excursion in co-founder, with David Nott, of carefully chosen foreigners in This tour includes US writers August. Nick Griffin, who was Doctors Under Fire, noted the the pursuit of that aim. and activists, some of whom formerly leader of the British other side of the propaganda. It hopes the visitors will are employed by Russian National Party, has made many “I was in Idlib only three paint a picture of a country at state-aligned media, and has trips to Syria in a similar vein. weeks ago with David Nott… I liberty and peace, not at war broadly centred on attempts to These journeys coalesce saw the devastation for myself. — if they can overlook the demonstrate a Syria at peace around similar themes. One is We were there during the Maat destruction and depopulation and leisure under the Assad the Syrian regime’s desire to market bombing. We saw many of cities like Aleppo and Homs regime. associate itself with Western- children casualties being and the prominent posters of Participants include Max style amusements, such as bars brought to the hospital in a Syrian President Bashar Assad Blumenthal, son of Sidney and nightlife, in contrast to the shocking state,” de Bretton- that predominate even among Blumenthal, an associate of Bill death and violence with which Gordon said. the ruins. and Hillary Clinton; Rania its forces are most commonly “It is shocking that any Some foreigners are admit- Khalek, an American-Lebanese associated. Westerners are supporting this ted on scarce tourist visas and producer for In the NOW, a The aim of the tours is also to tyrannical regime. The regime conducted, for a significant Russian-funded website and suggest that privation and has no morals and no scru- fee, by government-approved social media presence; Ajamu poverty in Syria are the product ples.” fixers around Syria’s major Baraka, an activist who was the of international sanctions. On debating those live- cities, as well as historic sites Green Party’s candidate for Sanctions are presented, by tweeting their Syrian journeys, that occupy a small but vice-president of the United Blumenthal and others, as an de Bretton-Gordon said: “Some significant place in state States in 2016; and others in undeclared war against Assad, of these people appear reason- propaganda. organised labour and “anti- with graver economic conse- able. Others are well known for Others, including those in the war” circles. quences for Syrians than a their extreme views. What we media and people with political Social media posts by the decade of real conflict. have seen with Russian and cultural connections, are group herald, in Khalek’s Even without making these propaganda post-Salisbury is toured by bus around the phrase “breathtaking view[s]” points explicitly, those who that if you put out enough country. They are shown model of locations such as Sednaya, tour the country uncritically propaganda, people start classrooms, meet with figures which holds a notorious prison serve to cement these propa- believing it. The Syrian associated with the regime and where thousands of people gandist themes. “We are giving them a government wants to placed before nominally were alleged to have been killed Syrian oppositionists and platform. The odd comment independent bloggers and by the state, and, per Blumen- human rights activists are now and again — so people forge an incongruous other visitors who give the thal, the number of bars that therefore motivated to rebut know these people are frauds. association with the state’s line on its conflict. have apparently opened in the the claims of visitors like these They need to be called out but In April 2018, one such tour old city of Damascus. but other questions emerge: a stand up spat with them is leisure of travel. Its took shape. It was led, if not The regime’s opponents, What effect do these propa- going to get nowhere. If no one borders admit directed, by British Baroness when they are mentioned, are ganda tours have? Do they calls them out, people will start carefully chosen Caroline Cox and included described as jihadists who directly influence the small-to- to believe.” minor politicians, journalists sought and failed to tamp medium audiences of the foreigners in the and the British Anglican priest down the desire of Syrians to media figures in question or in James Snell is a British pursuit of that aim. Giles Fraser. Its moments of consume alcohol and cohabit generating dissension and journalist. 10 September 15, 2019 News & Analysis Iraq Shia cleric al-Sadr raises eyebrows in rare Iran visit

The Arab Weekly staff Saddam Hussein in 2003. In 2014, Iran sent Soleimani and “military advisers” to Iraq to help London it in the fight against the Islamic State and Soleimani plays a key nfluential Iraqi cleric Muqtada role as a powerbroker in Iraq. al-Sadr surprised Iraqis by ap- Al-Sadr is a populist cleric, po- pearing seated between Irani- litical figure and former militia I an Supreme Leader Ayatollah leader whose bloc emerged as the Ali Khamenei and al-Quds com- largest in the Iraqi parliament after mander Major-General Qassem May 2018 elections. However, he Soleimani during a rare visit to refused to align with the pro-Iran Tehran to mark the Shia holy day camp to form a government, vis- of Ashura. ited Tehran’s regional rival Saudi Photos of al-Sadr were released Arabia and criticised pro-Iran par- by the office of the Iranian su- amilitary groups in Iraq, sparking preme leader. contradictory analysis of the re- Ashura commemorates the cent trip to Tehran. Burning questions. Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr (C) is seen sitting between Iranian Supreme death of Prophet Mohammad’s Observers said they suspected Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (L) and commander of Iran’s al-Quds Force Qassem Soleimani in grandson Hussein at the Battle of al-Sadr had been “summoned” Tehran, September 10. (AP) Karbala in modern-day Iraq. Hun- to Tehran after statements chal- dreds of thousands of Iranian pil- lenging Iran and its Iraqi allies in “Al-Sadr’s visit to Iran holds sev- time — as US sanctions on Iran be- which was the deadliest in recent grims head to Karbala every year to the Popular Mobilisation Forces eral messages, mainly his aim to come tougher — to convince them history during Ashura commemo- mark Ashura. (PMF), an umbrella group of pre- create a balance, after accusations to remove Abdul-Mahdi,” Al-Mon- rations. While many observers noted it dominately Shia militias. for being close to Arab and Gulf itor reported. Karbala Governor Nassif al-Khat- was strange to see al-Sadr outside Al-Sadr recently initiated a Twit- states,” head of the Iraqi Centre for tabi declared three days of mourn- ter campaign against the more Political Thought Ihsan al-Sham- ing in the province. Abdul-Mahdi Iraq on Ashura, his visit September While many observers 10 came at a time of deep political hard-line elements of the PMF and mari told Asharq Al-Awsat. and Iraqi Health Minister Alaa al- divisions among Iraq’s Shia fac- even took aim at the Iraqi govern- An anonymous source from al- noted it was strange to see Din Alwan went to Karbala to visit tions and as Baghdad tries to walk ment, saying Iraq was becoming a Sadr’s office told Al-Monitor that al-Sadr outside Iraq on with the wounded as messages of a tightrope between its two main “rogue” state. the Iraqi cleric “was trying to con- Ashura, his visit to Tehran support poured in, with Iraqi Pres- allies, Tehran and Washington. Others said it might indicate a vince Iranians to replace (Iraqi came at a time of deep ident Barham Salih expressing his Tehran has close but compli- vote of confidence in al-Sadr by Prime Minister) Adel Abdul-Mahdi political divisions among “deep condolences” to the victims’ cated ties with Baghdad, with sig- Iran’s leadership over the PMF’s with a stronger prime minister.” Iraq’s Shia factions. families. nificant influence among its Shia political arm, the Fatah alliance. “Abdul-Mahdi came into power Iraqis on social media criticised political groups. Iran and Iraq A third interpretation is the pos- with Iran’s direct support and they Al-Sadr’s visit coincided with the the government for failing to en- fought a war from 1980-88 and sible wish by al-Sadr to portray have been happy with his perfor- death of 31 pilgrims in a stampede sure the safety of pilgrims. Iran’s influence in Iraq grew after himself as neutral in regional con- mance so far. Therefore, al-Sadr is in Karbala. At least 100 other peo- the US-led invasion of Iraq toppled flicts. approaching them in this difficult ple were injured in the stampede, (With news agencies) Iraqi militants likely to plot comeback under the shadow of regional instability

Manuel Langendorf ble,” said Muhanad Seloom, assis- presence was “thinnest.” occur, to rural areas where it car- destabilise Iraq and give a variety tant professor in Critical Security Almost two years after the Iraqi ries out hit-and-run attacks and of would-be spoilers — not least Studies at the Doha Institute for government announced the defeat extortion rackets. ISIS — the enabling environment London Graduate Studies. Seloom said the of ISIS, the militant group released “ISIS is not an existential threat they seek,” he said. security situation in northern belt a video showing armed men re- anymore” in Iraq, said Seloom. He ilitants attacked several of Baghdad was volatile but all ar- newing allegiance to ISIS leader said the group had lost its capabili- areas in Iraq on Sep- eas are under government control. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Experts ties to launch large-scale attacks. Fanar Haddad, senior tember 7. Two military That is not the case in the northern said the video was likely shot sev- However, officials said “a new ISIS research fellow at the M members were killed provinces of Saladin, Kirkuk and eral months ago, potentially be- generation” could be established Middle East Institute, said in a demining operation in Sin- Nineveh, where pockets are out- fore a video featuring Baghdadi in camps for internally displaced ISIS was most active in rural jar, west of Mosul. A sniper shot side state control. was released in April. people in Iraq and camps holding areas of governorates where an intelligence official in Diyala Iraq recently emerged from one ISIS is said to have attracted ISIS suspects and their families in the government’s security province and a civilian was killed of its deadliest periods after the many followers through high- Syria. The presence of just a few presence was “thinnest.” by a bomb in his car. Explosions in territorial defeat of ISIS in Iraq in quality videos portraying battle extremists, Seloom said, could at- Baghdad injured several people. 2017. A coalition of Iraqi and inter- and life in what it aimed to portray tract vulnerable young people to Israel has reportedly struck Iran- Security forces carry out opera- national forces pushed the mili- as a utopian Islamic land. The lat- militant groups. allied groups in Iraq that are part tions against fighters from the Is- tant group out of all major popu- est release was of lower quality, Observers said other develop- of the Popular Mobilisation Forces lamic State (ISIS). The US-led coa- lation centres, including its Iraqi likely a sign of the group’s reduced ments also threaten stability in (PMF) several times. The attacks lition to defeat ISIS on September capital of Mosul. media capabilities. Iraq. If a regional armed conflict against the PMF threaten the sta- 10 released a video of air strikes Haddad said ISIS was most ac- The group has also changed tac- was to break out between Iran and tus quo between the PMF and the against ISIS targets on an island in tive in rural areas of governorates tics. Experts said ISIS has moved the United States and Israel, Iraq Iraqi state, wrote Renad Mansour Saladin province. formerly under the group’s control away from fighting in Iraq’s cities, would likely be a primary battle- in the Washington Post. Reports emerged that the Fal- where the government’s security although small-scale attacks still ground, said Haddad. “This would Under the maximum pressure con Intelligence Cell claimed a economic campaign by the United 75-member ISIS cell, allegedly States against Iran and its proxies, planning attacks in Saladin, had Mansour wrote, the PMF leader- been dismantled. The cell, Iraqi ship around Abu Mahdi al-Muhan- security expert Fadel Abu Ragheef dis may enter a realm traditionally said, included suicide bombers left to the government. Muhandis, and administrative officials. for example, directly addressed Data published by analyst Joel the West and the PMF reportedly Wing suggest an uptick in violence issued an order to form an air in August, with most of the attacks force. taking place in Diyala province on The PMF is undermining the the Iranian border. Some experts rule of law and democratisation in say Diyala is a focal area for insur- Iraq, said Seloom, adding that Iraqi gents. Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi Despite the attacks, “the securi- was unable “to stand against the ty situation in Iraq is currently the PMF.” best it has been since 2003,” said On firm ground. The PMF, he said, is competing Fanar Haddad, senior research fel- Members of Iraq’s with the government and was in- low at the Middle East Institute at Counterterrorism volved in corruption. In Sunni ar- the National University of Singa- Service line eas, ISIS and the PMF are posing pore. Haddad, however, said there up during a the same threat to the local popu- were pockets of insurgent activity graduation lation, Seloom said. “that are unlikely to dissipate any ceremony in time soon.” Baghdad, last Manuel Langendorf is a writer “The overall situation is sta- August. (AFP) focusing on the MENA region. September 15, 2019 11 News & Analysis Egypt Human rights advocates decry US release of military aid

The Arab Weekly staff interests of the United States.” This is frustrating rights advo- cates who had hoped the measure Cairo would force Egypt to improve its human rights record. gypt’s human rights advo- “Human rights are not a priority, cates said they were wor- not only for decision makers in the ried after the US State De- United States but also everywhere E partment released annual else,” said Dalia Ziyada, executive military aid to Egypt in full, adding director of Egyptian Centre for Free that the move would embolden the Democracy Studies, a local think- administration of Egyptian Presi- tank. “Human rights are trumped dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi towards by the fight against terrorism and Giving a hand. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) meets with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh disregard for human rights. the need to preserve security.” Shoukry at the Department of State in Washington, last March . (AP) “The move also shows that the The issue is becoming sensitive current US administration does not in Egypt and comments by foreign care about human rights at all,” said visitors on it often anger Sisi. In alleging the Sisi administration dis- ditions in the country’s jails for two security is becoming far more im- rights activist Khaled Emam. “This January, he lost his temper when regards individual freedoms, pro- years. portant to ordinary people than hu- disappoints all those working to a French journalist accompany- hibits peaceful assembly and jails “We have not been allowed to do man rights.” defend the rights of Egyptian citi- ing French President Emmanuel thousands of political activists. Re- this,” Ishaq said. “We also submit- Egypt is also mediating between zens.” Macron asked him about human strictions on the work of civil soci- ted requests for the release of polit- the Palestinians and the Israelis, In January, the US House of Rep- rights. ety organisations in Egypt have also ical prisoners who are not involved plays an important role in interna- resentatives, addressing perceived “We are part of a region burst- been criticised. in terrorist attacks.” tional counterterrorism efforts and human rights issues in Egypt, gave ing at the seams with tension,” Sisi Emam cited what he described has worked to try to limit Iranian preliminary approval to withhold- said. “You would have benefited us as the “enforced disappearance” of The issue of human rights expansion efforts. ing $300 million out of a total of nothing if a civil war had erupted in political activists as a flagrant hu- is becoming sensitive in During his meeting with Sisi on $1.3 billion in annual military assis- man rights violation. the sidelines of the G7 summit Egypt.” Egypt and comments by tance to Egypt. Macron had earlier said he be- “Referring civilians to military in August, US President Donald To receive the remaining $300 lieved the stability of states was courts and restrictions to the work foreign visitors on it Trump described Sisi as a “very im- million, Egypt was to take meas- strongly connected with respect for of NGOs are also violations that often anger Sisi. portant” figure” in the US Middle ures to advance democracy and individual rights and the rule of law. need to be addressed,” he said. East peace plan. human rights, release political pris- In February, Sisi berated another The National Council for Human Egypt is caught in a wave of ex- “For all these reasons, Trump’s oners and protect anti-government journalist who asked him about Rights, the state-run rights watch- tremism. The Egyptian Army and administration will not give prior- protesters. Egypt’s human rights record. “You dog, said it is considering ways to police have been fighting Islamic ity to human rights over relations However, the State Department will not teach us what humanity is invite the government’s attention State militants in Sinai and militias with Egypt,” said Samir Ghattas, approved the release of the military about. We have our own human- to the need for improving human affiliated with the Muslim Brother- the head of local think-tank Middle aid in full after US Secretary of State ity which you have to respect,” Sisi rights conditions. hood elsewhere. East Centre for Strategic Studies. Mike Pompeo waived human rights said. Council board member George “It is not easy to defend human “Egypt is a cornerstone of security conditions. He described Egypt as However, rights groups decry Ishaq said he and his colleagues rights in a country that fights ter- in the Middle East and Africa and “important to the national security human rights conditions in Egypt, have been requesting to check con- rorism,” Ziyada said. “This is why no country can overlook this.” Suspicions swirl after scientist’s death in Morocco

Ahmed Megahid dered outside Egypt.” Ramadan, a physicist, was as- the family about his work. “He con- Nevertheless, the Egyptian nu- Several Egyptian nuclear and signed by the International Atomic sidered his work a strictly personal clear programme was picking up physics scientists have been killed Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2015 to affair,” said Gamal. ahead of construction of the nuclear Cairo outside the country and, in many help assess environmental effects Egypt has been trying to develop power plant in Dabaa. The plant is to cases, it was not determined who of nuclear plants in Bushehr, Iran, its own peaceful nuclear programme include four reactors, each with the he death of an Egyptian nu- was responsible, although some and Dimona, Israel, Egyptian media since the 1950s. It had its first nucle- capacity to generate 1,200 mega- clear scientist in Morocco people accused the Israeli intelli- reported. ar reactor, for research purposes, in watts of electricity. The first reactor fuelled debate alleging pos- gence agency, Mossad. He had cooperated with the 1954. In 1958, President Gamal Ab- is scheduled to start operating in T sible foul play aimed at de- Egyptian nuclear scientist Fatma agency since 2004 in assessing the del Nasser opened the Anshas reac- 2026. priving Egypt of its nuclear energy Moussa died in a road crash in Cali- effects of nuclear activities on mari- tor in the Nile Delta. In 1992, Egypt “Nuclear energy is very impor- specialists. fornia in August 1952. Another sci- time pollution. In January this year, received a multipurpose nuclear re- tant for Egypt’s economic develop- Abu Bakr Ramadan, the for- entist was killed in another traffic he participated with an Egyptian- actor from Argentina. ment,” said Ali Abdel Nabi, a nuclear mer head of the Network for Ra- accident in Detroit in August 1967. IAEA team assessing the environ- Egypt’s nuclear energy ambitions energy expert who worked with diological Monitoring, a section of In June 1980, scientist Yahia al- mental effects of a multibillion-dol- were slowed by the 1986 Cherno- Ramadan. “Egypt is badly in need of the national radiology watchdog, Mashad was killed in Paris. In July lar nuclear power plant to be built in byl disaster in Ukraine. Difficulties diversifying its energy sources, giv- Egyptian Nuclear and Radiological 1989, missile technology scientist north-western Egypt in cooperation in developing the national nuclear en its rapidly growing population.” Regulatory Authority, travelled to Saeed al-Sayed Bedeir was found with Russia. programme led to many Egyptian The plant is to be constructed Marrakech, Morocco, in early Sep- dead at his brother’s flat in Alexan- His nephew, Mohamed Gamal, nuclear scientists emigrating to oth- over 45 sq.km and cost $28.8 bil- tember for a workshop on pollution dria. said his uncle had never talked to er countries. lion. Russia will contribute $25 bil- trends in coastal areas. lion in a loan to be repaid by Egypt On September 6, the final day of over 13 years at an interest rate of the conference, it was reported that 3%. A year after the operation of its he said he felt tired and went to his first phase in 2026, the plant will hotel room to get some medication. contribute 10% of all electricity in A hotel worker passing the room Egypt. By 2050, it will provide 30% minutes later said he found Rama- of the country’s electricity. dan’s door open. When he entered, Egypt’s nuclear ambitions bring he said he found Ramadan lying on fears for the safety of the country’s the floor. scientists. An ambulance was called but Abu Taleb asked the Egyptian Ramadan, 61, was declared dead be- government to send a team of inves- fore reaching the hospital. tigators to participate in the inquiry An initial report by the hospital into Ramadan’s death. He called for said Ramadan died of a heart attack. protecting Egyptian scientists who Egyptian Ambassador to Morocco travel to other countries. Ashraf Ibrahim said heart medica- Security analysts said measures tion was found in the professor’s had been taken to protect some sci- hotel room. Moroccan authorities entists. have opened an inquiry into Rama- “This is especially true with some dan’s death. scientists because of the nature of In Egypt, news of Ramadan’s their work,” said security expert death was met with suspicions and Mahmud Khalaf. “The type of in- accusations. formation in the possession of these “Enemy states have their eyes scientists makes it necessary for the fixed on Egypt’s scientists abroad,” authorities to pay special attention said Khaled Abu Taleb, a member of to their protection.” the Defence and National Security Committee in parliament. “History A cloud of mystery. Abu Bakr Ramadan, the former head of the Network for Radiological Monitoring, Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian is full of examples of scientists mur- attending an event in Marrakech, September 4. (Facebook) reporter in Cairo. 12 September 15, 2019 Viewpoint Qatar

Greeted with fanfare. Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani at the Elysee Palace in Paris, July 6, 2018. (Reuters)

About ARTE’s How Qatar is playing a double game documentary in France with Macron’s consent The Arab Weekly Staff London

brother” and other Gulf emir- Rafale warplanes, knowing that Lists of donors, including he documentary “Qatar: ates. It was also geared at the tiny Gulf state was a major members of the reigning Thani A War of influence on promoting US interests in the financier of Islamist organisa- family, bank transfers and mail Islam in Europe” is an Majed Nehme region even if that was at the tions and their terrorist off- were included in the leak, the T in-depth look at Doha’s expense of the rest of the Arab shoots, including in France’s producers said, revealing the networks of influence overseas, world. traditional areas of influence in emirate’s proselytising offen- uncovering the role of an obscure n unwavering It is no coincidence that Africa. sive in Europe, with this Qatar-based charity group in supporter of the Doha’s new ruler, one year later, It was one example of the powerful organisation financ- funding the construction and fi- Muslim Brother- launched Al Jazeera, which was mercantile but dangerous ing 140 mosque projects, nancing of Muslim Brotherhood- hood, Qatar has infiltrated by the Muslim relations between the two Islamic centres and schools, all linked mosques, Islamic centres ambiguous rela- Brotherhood. The satellite TV countries. Hollande’s France of which are linked to the and schools in Europe. tions with France. channel has played — and still was marching in the footsteps nebula of the Muslim Brother- The investigation began in FrenchA writer Jacques-Marie plays — a destabilising role in of his right-wing predecessor, hood. 2016 when a whistle-blower re- Bourget, co-author of “Le Vilain the Arab world while concealing Nicolas Sarkozy. Qatari officials denied the vealed the far-reaching extent of Petit Qatar: Cet ami qui nous its obscurantist discourse by Hollande’s successor as allegations, despite so much Qatar’s ideological campaign in veut du mal” (“The Ugly Tiny claiming it is defending free- president, Emmanuel Macron, evidence against Doha. Europe. Journalists Georges Mal- Qatar: This Friend Who Means dom of expression, except, of did not deviate from this Two decades ago, Richard brunot’s and Christian Chesnot’s Us Harm”), termed Qatar as a course, in the country it is transactional strategy. He Labeviere, a major figure of 2-year investigation uncovered a “champion of lies and dissimu- broadcasting from. refused to criminalise the antiterrorist investigations, vast Qatari influence campaign lation.” The same year, construction Muslim Brotherhood in France found evidence that Qatar to promote its brand of Islam in For decades, Qatar has been started on the largest US under the pretext that it has not Charity, a Doha financial arm, Europe. weaving a web of economic, military base outside the United “violated the laws of the was the central hub of the Zeroing in on places like Al political and cultural ties with States in Al Udeid within the republic.” However, the mate- Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy. Nour Islamic Centre in Mul- France, tinged with barely framework of a defence agree- rial evidence for Qatar’s public Labeviere published a book in house, one of Europe’s largest concealed mercantilism. ment with Doha. This base and occult financing of this 1999 detailing how Qatar’s construction sites where some Since the publication of houses about 10,000 US movement in France and “terror dollars,” to borrow his 200,000 Muslims live, reception Bourget’s investigation in 2013, troops. Europe is not lacking. expression, circulated the centres for migrants in Sicily, the other books have appeared To buy the approval of the On September 24, the Franco- terrorist nebula in Europe and Museum of Islamic Civilisations shedding light on the relations hawks in Washington, who have German TV channel ARTE is to elsewhere through Qatar (Mucivi) in Switzerland and a between Paris and Qatari toyed with the notion of the broadcast an incriminating Charity. training centre for imams in Cha- leaders since 1995, the year of Muslim Brothers being “free- documentary titled “Qatar: Macron must have known teau-Chinon, the documentary the bloodless coup led by dom fighters,” Qatar paid $8 guerre d’influence sur l’islam about this, at least during his provides an up-close view of how Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, billion in advance while its d’Europe” (“Qatar: A War of time as economic adviser to Qatar is furthering its agenda. against his father Emir Khalifa economy was bleeding pro- Influence on Islam in Europe). Hollande and as minister of the bin Hamad al-Thani. fusely. In 2018, Qatar again The film is the result of an economy but that did not The stated goal of the coup spent a few billion dollars to investigation led by Georges prevent him from courting the not escape the former Gaullist was to “reform the country and expand the base. Malbrunot from Le Figaro and sponsors of the Muslim Broth- deputy, Nicolas Dupont-Aig- give it a place among modern- Before that, Doha offered Christian Chesnot from France erhood in France through the nan, president of Debout La ised nations.” However, Sheikh Turkish President Recep Tayyip Inter. Union of Muslim Organisations France, who declared on the Hamad’s putsch was directed Erdogan’s regime, which has The two journalists spent of France, which changed its news channel LCI that “Emma- mostly against the Saudi “big strong ties to the Muslim two-and-a-half years investi- name to Muslims of France in nuel Macron attacks the Brotherhood, a military base in gating Qatar’s strategy for the hope of wiping out traces of democratically elected heads of the country. By generously control of Europe’s Islam. They its ties to the Muslim Brother- state of Hungary, Italy, America Al Jazeera has played opening their tiny territory to directly confronted some of the hood. and Russia and turns a blind foreign bases, the Qatari leaders players in the strategy. On April 17, 2018, Macron eye to Islamic terrorism.” — and still plays — a hope to buy an insurance policy As stated by Flach Film and received the leaders of the Syria “Something is wrong with the destabilising role in while destabilising their ARTE, the documentary Charity organisation — report- president, I tell you, because imaginary enemies. producers, what started the edly not without links to Qatar France’s enemy is Islamic the Arab world while Towards the end of Francois investigation was a USB storage Charity. The president of the terrorism. France’s enemy is concealing its Hollande’s term as French device delivered in 2016 by a NGO, which is active in Syria, is those who want to destroy our obscurantist president, France, which prided whistle-blower to Malbrunot Syrian Muslim Brotherhood values. He talks all day about itself on defending human and Chesnot and which con- member Mohammed Alolaiwy, values but he chooses the discourse by claiming rights and democracy wherever tains thousands of confidential who boasted on Facebook to wrong enemies,” Dupont-Aig- it is defending they are flouted, did not documents from the opaque have unlocked “an envelope of nan said. hesitate to sign with Qatar in Qatar Charity, an NGO founded 50 million euros ($55 mil- freedom of 2015 an arms contract for the in 1992 and operating in 70 lion).” Majed Nehme is a Syrian- expression. delivery of at least 36 French countries. Macron’s complacency did French journalist in Paris. September 15, 2019 13 News & Analysis Gulf Yemen Turkey’s military base in Qatar further antagonises Arab Quartet

Ahmed Fouad Al Jazeera news channel and Tur- key’s Al-Rayyan military base in Qatar. Cairo Mohamed Bahaa Eldin, a politi- cal science professor at Suez Uni- gyptian Foreign Minister versity, said the effect of a new Sameh Shoukry reiterated Turkish military base remains that the Arab Quartet boy- unclear. He said the quartet un- E cotting Qatar is not letting derstands that “Qatar isn’t ex- up on its list of 13 demands. How- pected to be able to expel Turkish ever, it appears the quartet may forces, which are better trained soon have to alter its demands and equipped compared to the Qa- regarding the closure of a Turk- tari Army, especially given that its ish military base on its soil. Before agreements to establish military long, Doha will have two Turkish bases may be irrevocable unilater- bases, not one. ally. The Turkish newspaper Hur- “If the quartet believed from riyet reported that the number of the beginning that Qatar would be Turkish soldiers in Qatar was ex- unable to fulfil this demand, the pected to increase this year with presence of more Turkish forces the opening of the new military in the new base will have neither a base. Ankara, it said, would have positive nor negative effect on the an opening ceremony attended prospects of reconciliation.” by Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin However, if the quartet issued Hamad al-Thani and Turkish Presi- the demand to put Qatar’s inten- dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Mili- tions to the test, he said, Doha’s tary observers said this would give latest move could antagonise the the Turkish Army a larger pres- quartet. ence in the country than Qatar’s “If Qatar had accepted the de- own army. mand in principle, it would have The move is likely to exacerbate been able to discuss and negotiate a rift between Qatar and the Arab with the quartet on how and when Shifting alliances. A 2017 file picture shows Turkish and Qatari military personnel during a joint Quartet — Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the to implement it but Qatar’s accept- military exercise in Doha. (Reuters) United Arab Emirates and Bahrain ance of a new Turkish military — that began more than two years base shows that it is still refusing ago. In June 2017, the four coun- the demand in principle, which hood leaders wanted in Egypt for rorism after Cairo rejected Qatar’s certainly hurt prospects for rec- tries severed diplomatic relations consequently reduces the chances allegedly inciting violence and offer to mediate a deal between onciliation between the two sides. with Qatar, suspended flights to of reconciliation,” he said. conducting terrorist operations af- the Egyptian government and the The only exception, he said, is if and from the country, barred Qa- The Arab Quartet is likely to re- ter the overthrow of Islamist Pres- Muslim Brotherhood “the quartet’s demands are nego- tari aircraft from flying through main sceptical of Qatar even if it ident Muhammad Morsi following tiable according to changing po- their airspace and imposed other attempts to comply with some of protests against his rule. litical conditions, including the economic sanctions on Doha be- the quartet’s demands, such as Observers described the step The Turkish newspaper expansion of Turkish influence in cause of its alleged support of ter- ceasing support for designated as evidence that Qatar, which has Hurriyet reported that Qatar, while Gulf and Arab influ- rorism and ties with Iran. terror groups. provided support to the Muslim the number of Turkish ence reduces.” To normalise relations, Doha Qatar previously clamped down Brotherhood, was reforming its soldiers in Qatar was “This is highly unexpected since would have to meet 13 demands is- on figures that were designated ways and reaching out to Egypt. expected to increase preparations for Turkish military sued by the boycotting countries, terrorists in Egypt before attempt- In March 2015, Egyptian Presi- this year with the expansion in Qatar were revealed they said. Among the demands ing to broker peace talks between dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi received opening of the new months ago, without any waiver were reducing Iranian diplomatic Cairo and the Muslim Brother- Sheikh Tamim before the 26th military base. from boycotting countries con- representation in Qatar, severing hood, considered a terror group in Arab Summit. cerning their demands,” he added. trade and military relations with Egypt. However, relations deteriorated Mahmoud Zahran, a journalist Tehran, cutting ties with terrorist In September 2014, Qatar ex- once more. In August 2015, Egypt who focuses on Turkey, said the Ahmed Fouad is an Egyptian organisations and figures, closing pelled several Muslim Brother- accused Qatar of supporting ter- new Turkish base in Qatar would writer. Viewpoint Thinking outside the box: Towards a new legitimacy in Yemen

write this from Riyadh bloodshed and destruction it region and not just a recipient Resolution 2216 is the cover after meetings with caused; of humanitarian assistance. for the continuation of this Mustafa representatives of all 3 - is a war of influence Accepting the principle of war and the continuation of al-No’man political spectrums in between the major regional constitutional legitimacy is a the authority system in its Yemen. Fifty-four powers; foregone conclusion and this current form. This necessi- months after the start of 4 - is a clear illustration of despite the many reserva- tates the search for amend- Ithe war there and after all the the great political failure of tions and criticism that one ments to meet the require- military and UN efforts and those who ran the country might levy against those who ments of a new phase whose calls for a dialogue that would during the transitional represent it but I reiterate my features differ completely put the country on a path to period; view that we need to consider from those of the situation peace and spare future 5 - is a natural consequence the convictions of the prevailing in March 2015. generations the scourge of of the failure of the regimes leaderships of all sides that 3 -There is almost unanim- bloodshed, destruction, preceding the transitional the military options did not ity on the incapacity and hatred and revenge with no period to establish and and will not lead to the corruption of the current tangible results, it is time to consolidate the foundations of victory of one side over the authority, on its inability to try to think of a different institutional rule and of the other and that the human and think positively and on its approach to the crisis. spread of corruption as well as economic cost of these wars lack of political imagina- I do not doubt that what the autocratic political and will undoubtedly cast a heavy tion. happened on September 21, economic rule of a small shadow over coming genera- 4 -The current legitimacy 2014, was a defining moment powerful minority; tions and that it will not be does not enjoy popular in Yemen’s history, what with 6 - was the expected result easy, and perhaps impossible, support and depends solely the inaction of official of the failure of the neigh- for the region to regain its on regional support, which is institutions and the dubious bouring countries, despite social peace soon. beginning to look at it as a reactions of the political multiple warnings, to pay What we need to do is to slouchy and corrupt body and parties to it to have a fait attention to Yemen as an think about solutions that a heavy burden. Hence, it is accompli that they accepted important and pivotal state in some might see as diminish- necessary to think seriously to arrange their own affairs the regional conflict, since it ing their political status or as about finding an alternative within the framework of the was a link with the weakest expressing their lack of body capable of facing reality Peace and National Partner- resistance in the attempts by decisiveness or as an attempt because it is rather like doing ship Agreement, which, in rival powers to penetrate the to establish a fait accompli battle with windmills. essence, transferred power to Arab region; without the backing of an These are ideas, not The current an inexperienced armed 7 - was the result of the encompassing national will. decisions. All I wish is that group that did not have regional neglect to develop I, therefore, put forward they be considered and legitimacy does not legitimacy. the largest reservoir of human the following proposals: discussed without precon- enjoy popular support In my opinion, the war in and agricultural resources in 1 - The Gulf initiative is no ceptions or intolerance or and depends solely on Yemen: the region and of being longer valid now that the sectarian or partisan 1 - is a struggle for power content with handing out facts on the ground have entrenchment. regional support, using military tools; grants and loans rather than changed; a new framework which is beginning to 2 - is going to leave a setting up an ambitious plan must, therefore, be agreed Mustafa al-No’man is a profound and chronic nega- to raise the standard of living upon to accommodate the former under-secretary of look at it as a slouchy tive effect on Yemenis of Yemeni citizens so they feel current political map. Yemen’s Ministry of Foreign and corrupt body. because of the unprecedented a sense of belonging to the 2 - UN Security Council Affairs. 14 September 15, 2019 News & Analysis Turkey Turkey eyes new defence partnership with Russia but risks remain high

Sabahat Khan Turkish pilots have had their F-35 training halted and Turkish indus- try producing components for the Dubai aircraft remain in limbo about as to where the dispute ends. es, you can buy it,” Rus- The United States said the only sian President Vladimir way back into the F-35 programme “ Putin said after a short for Turkey is the removal of the Ypause to Turkish Presi- S-400 systems, for which Ankara dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan who, has agreed to pay $2 billion. while inspecting an Su-57 during a Washington says the S-400, visit to MAKS-2019, Russia’s lead- which is incompatible with NATO A break from the past. Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip ing aerospace trade show, quipped systems, poses severe risks to the Erdogan inspect a Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet during the MAKS-2019 International whether the stealth fighter jet was F-35 but there are reports that the Aviation and Space Salon in Zhukovsky outside Moscow, August 27. (Reuters) for sale. Russians are pitching additional Erdogan later said “We didn’t S-400 systems to Turkey, which is come here for nothing” when no longer able to purchase the US- generation stealth air superiority would jeopardise its long-stand- context. Last year, Russia, tradition- asked how serious he was about made Patriot systems alternative. fighter. While an Su-57 aircraft may ing defence cooperation with the ally the world’s second-largest arms purchasing Russian hardware, It appears unlikely the United carry a unit cost less than half the United States, cutting access to key supplier, saw defence exports total such as the Su-57 or Su-35 aircraft. States would allow Turkey to take F-35’s approximately $100 million technologies and technical assis- approximately $20 billion. Turkey’s growing ties with Rus- delivery for any F-35 aircraft, of price tag, the two aircraft are de- tance. The risks for Turkey are high. sia are a break from the past. Tur- which 100 had been ordered by signed for different purposes — an Turkey spends approximately Purchasing Russian fighter aircraft key and Russia fought numerous Ankara. The years ahead would Su-57 is not a true alternative to the $20 billion on defence annually would involve a massive and high- wars as imperialist powers through have likely seen additional pur- F-35. and, while it has a defence industry cost reorganisation of its air force, the 1700s and 1800s that were to chases of the F-35 by Turkey. Despite news that Sukhoi has be- of growing sophistication at home, doctrines, training and supply net- set the tone for the century ahead. It remains unclear where Tur- gun mass production of the Su-57, its reliance on US technology as- work. When Turkey joined NATO in 1952, key’s industrial participation in industry experts said the aircraft sistance is vast. For this reason, it Turkey’s NATO membership the Cold War between the Western the F-35 programme is left but the — years behind schedule — suffers is generally thought that Turkey is could also be on the line if it re- world and the Soviet Union was logical expectation is that will be from serious issues related to avi- unlikely to pursue defence indus- orients towards a defence strategy pressing ahead at full power and culled. onics and its engine. trial cooperation with Russia to the that while prioritising self-reliance Turkey took a front-line role. For fighter aircraft needs, then, Ankara is hoping to build its own extent it comes at the cost of cut- rebalances with Russian and Chi- Today, as Turkey takes delivery Turkey may have no choice but to fifth-generation fighter, known as ting strategic access to American nese technologies because of the of the Russia-made S-400 ballistic turn to Russia for fifth-generation the TF-X, in collaboration with the technologies and expertise. broader strategic realignment that missile defence system and finds aircraft until it can produce its own, United Kingdom’s BAE Systems. On the other hand, Russia could would entail. itself at loggerheads with its tradi- if such an ambitious goal is able to In addition to offering the Su-35 offer, as it apparently did with the If CAATSA goes into effect, Tur- tional ally, the United States, over materialise. and Su-57 aircraft, Moscow has ex- S-400, better value for the money, key could dramatically find its ne- the purchase, Ankara is telling The struggles of the United pressed its interest in supporting technology transfer and significant gotiating position weakened with counterparts in Moscow of its de- States, Russia and China with their Turkey’s TF-X with Russian engines stakes in programmes with export both the United States and Russia sire to broaden defence industrial attempts at fifth-generation aircraft and for electronic warfare. potential to Turkey. As the United together with its military develop- cooperation. technology underline the inher- The Countering America’s Ad- States displaces Russia in its key ment and national industries that Since May, the United States has ent complexities and high costs in- versaries Through Sanctions Act traditional defence export mar- support it. effectively suspended Turkey from volved with such programmes. (CAATSA), enacted by the United kets such as India, Egypt and Al- the F-35 programme over the S-400 The Su-57, a single-seat, twin- States in 2017, could mean Ankara geria, among others, Moscow feels Sabahat Khan, based in Dubai, purchase and a “final decision” engine multirole aircraft equipped is faced with future sanctions for it needs to find new customers for maintains a cross-disciplinary is expected on Turkey’s expul- with advanced avionics and high- significant purchases of military strategic as well as economic rea- focus in international security, sion from the programme shortly. precision weapons, is Russia’s fifth- equipment from Russia, which sons and Turkey is significant in this defence policy and strategic issues.

Viewpoint Is Erdogan’s ruling party imploding?

The persistently creeping and the HDP by demonising the about anymore. For an increasing Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, an concern of domestic and interna- latter. number of party figures on the overly ambitious latecomer to the tional actors is that Erdogan’s On a third level, he shapes a new central and local level, the AKP, whose dreamy regional Yavuz Baydar regime of super-presidency, carrot-and-stick policy based on opposite has happened. policy doctrine led to a big introduced after the referendum using Syrian refugees as a Recent public surveys claim failure. What he does, however, in April 2017, has failed because bargaining chip vis-a-vis the that, for the first time since it with outspoken rhetoric against ach day that passes, it of over-ambition coupled with European Union and the United attained power in 2002, the AKP his former boss, is helping tear seems, Turkey’s incompetence and administrative States by constantly talking about has support as low as 30%, falling down the pillars of the AKP. mighty president, illiteracy. opening the gates to the West or behind the CHP. Erdogan has some odds on his Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Not much is functioning in placing 1 million Syrians on the What leaves Erdogan con- side. He knows an early election is walking on thinner Ankara. As a well-informed safe zone, fully aware that the cerned these days is that, if he is not a viable option. None of the ice. European source bluntly said: anti-refugee sentiments across loses his grip on the party, his current deputies of parliament, EThe bleak outlook has many “Erdogan and his team more or the political table in Turkey will days in power may be numbered. including the Kurdish, are willing factors. The failed regional policy less blocked a proper functioning preserve his popularity at home. Will he overcome the challenge to push for this. It has mainly to is one of them. The Muslim of all the state institutions. All these calculations have a that comes from within? As do with conformism: lucrative Brotherhood dream of a regime Flunkeys and losers are favoured long-term objective: To keep the confidence for him as party salaries and privileges lead most changer role on Syria has back- because they are 100% loyal. options of a “grand national unity leader withers, the brewing of the opposition to a “let’s wait fired in a triple manner, placing “And, to do proper business, coalition” under him as an rebellion displays signs of and see” attitude, as the fear of Turkey in a corner before the everybody is waiting for the day ultimate survival path. powerful erosion. losing seats in a snap poll is very United States, Russia and Syria. he is gone. They choose to stay in One developing dynamic casts We see the founding fathers at high among the AKP deputies. A deepening economic crisis is the trenches. Confidence has a shadow over Erdogan’s self- play in this context: former This helps Erdogan open a another problem. The country evaporated. Until that day, we confident image on the surface: It Turkish President Abdullah Gul channel to a broader coalition has been pushed into a recession, shall see, I am afraid, a free is obvious that the bleeding that and former Economy Minister Ali alternative. which means rising unemploy- fall.” started with the loss of municipal Babacan are engaged to shape a However, one possibility may ment is no longer controllable, Despite the gloomy outlook, elections, especially the farce- centre-liberal party, due to be spoil the game: What if Babacan paving the way for wider social Erdogan maintains his posture. like repeat of voting in Istanbul, introduced in December. and Gul, on one side, and unrest, adding to disgruntlement Seemingly decisive, without seems irreversible. Erdogan is Bulent Arinc, once a powerful, Davutoglu, on the other, con- among various societal seg- blinking, he continues with what watching the once-powerful bold figure in the leadership of vince a small but significant num- ments. he knows best: Keeping enemies ruling Justice and Development AKP, is sending controversial ber of AKP deputies to resign and as close as possible, keen on Party (AKP) tumble down. public messages, defending the form a separate group in parlia- diabolic alliances with extreme “Erdogan fatigue,” in conver- ousted Kurdish mayor, Ahmet ment? It may be a game changer nationalists. Regarding the gence with the discontent in Turk, and leading CHP figures — that would shake the ground on One possibility may secular main opposition and the Turkey, has left his party in in defiance of Erdogan’s hard which Erdogan stands. Nobody spoil the game: What Kurdish political movement, he convulsions. line. knows what he would do but this uses a consistent divide-and-rule This has to do with the percep- Arinc faces attacks from scenario is gaining traction. if Babacan and Gul, on policy. tions of his decisions as misman- Erdogan’s camp but it is obvious One point is certain: No matter one side, and He is busy with a multilayered agement and with the fact that that he is concerned that all the what, the AKP, like late President Davutoglu, on the strategy of survival: On one level many “elders” in the party oppressive measures Erdogan has Turgut Ozal’s ruling Motherland he is brutally bashing the pro- structure no longer recognise it as carried out in the past seven Party, is heading for an implo- other, convince a Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic it once was. “Democracy, years against the opposition and sion. small but significant Party (HDP). On a second level, he freedom, equality and justice” media may be implemented is building a wall between the were the four legs of AKP against Arinc and his entou- Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish number of AKP voter bases of the main opposition foundation — still on its pro- rage. journalist and regular columnist deputies to resign? Republican People’s Party (CHP) gramme, which nobody cares Then you have former Prime for The Arab Weekly. September 15, 2019 15 News & Analysis Iran

Viewpoint Iran is in no hurry to revert to terms of 2015 nuclear deal

per day from 2.3 million before last year’s stringent US sanctions but sales of oil products — mainly Gareth Smyth fuel for power generation and liquefied petroleum gas — have barely fallen and are netting ran’s decision to operate $500 million a month. advanced centrifuges for Tehran has also been fairly enriching uranium is its assertive militarily in the most significant step yet Arabian Gulf, where in June it outside the 2015 nuclear shot down a US drone with deal. Yet it was followed by relative impunity. Tehran still IUS Secretary of State Mike holds the British tanker Stena Pompeo confirming that, while Impero, seized near Hormuz in the United States would continue July under the nose of the British its “maximum-pressure cam- Royal Navy. Iran has confirmed paign,” US President Donald the sale — presumably to Syria — Odd man out. A file picture shows John Bolton (L) listening to US President Donald Trump speaking Trump was ready to meet with of the 2.1 million barrels of oil during a working lunch at Trump’s private Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida. (AP) Iranian President Hassan Rohani aboard the Adrian Darya I, the “with no preconditions” during tanker previously known as the UN General Assembly. Grace I that Gibraltar’s authori- Confused? You’re not the only ties impounded July 4 and one. Trump’s firing of national released August 18. Bolton’s ouster boosts security adviser John Bolton, an By the US presidential election advocate of “regime change” in of November 2020, Iran will have Iran, adds challenges for analysts a more advanced atomic pro- assessing US foreign policy. gramme and an economy less Sir Richard Dalton, former UK dependent on oil. Washington’s prospect of talks ambassador to Iran, said a basis “maximum pressure” may not for US-Iran progress in talks have weakened Iran’s links with existed but required compro- allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon or mises. “All Iran’s moves are Yemen, while Trump’s continu- minor in non-proliferation terms ing disengagement is likely to between US and Iran and… reversible,” he said. An further boost Russia’s Middle immediate obstacle, Dalton Eastern role. The United Arab continued, might well be Emirates may continue discus- Thomas Seibert United States and Iran remain far Iranian oil despite the US boycott. Trump’s unwillingness to give sions with Iran over maritime apart, however. Trump wants Teh- To put pressure on them, Iran has Tehran “oil-sale waivers in security and to resist US pressure ran to accept stricter controls over pushed past JCPOA limits on nu- return for Iran undoing its over sanctions. Istanbul Iran’s nuclear programme and de- clear enrichment purity and stock- non-observance of some of the Changes in the wider region, mands limits on Iran’s missile pro- piles of enriched uranium. [nuclear] limits.” all affecting Iran’s calculations, he end of John Bolton’s gramme. He also asks Tehran to The International Atomic Energy Dalton is sceptical that Trump, are afoot. Tehran’s relationship tenure as national secu- stop its aggressive policies in the Agency (IAEA), a UN organisation, even without Bolton, can with the Palestinians may rity adviser in the Trump Middle East, where Iran supports confirmed that Iran was prepar- conjure up with Iran a quick strengthen with the plan T White House raises the militant groups in several coun- ing to use more advanced centri- foreign policy breakthrough to announced by Israeli Prime chances of US-Iranian talks about tries. fuges, the latest step to breach the rescue his presidency. “Neither Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to the nuclear row but Bolton’s oust- Iran said after Bolton’s dismissal boundaries of the nuclear deal. Tehran nor Washington is in a annex 30% of the occupied West er alone is no guarantee a new es- that US sanctions would have to The IAEA wants answers from hurry to try a new tack. They Bank if re-elected prime minister calation can be avoided, analysts be lifted for talks with the United Iran after its inspectors said they have not given up on their after the September 17 elec- said. States to become possible. The found uranium particles at what underlying positions,” Dalton tion. Just hours before US President new development would not auto- Tehran has said was a carpet- said. “Trump would like a Saudi Energy Minister Prince Donald Trump took to Twitter to matically lead to talks, state news cleaning facility. IAEA Acting Di- meeting with Rohani but not Abdulaziz bin Salman bin announce he had fired his national agency IRNA quoted Tehran’s UN rector General Cornel Feruta, who enough for him to change policy Abdulaziz has said Riyadh wants security adviser, Bolton, an out- envoy Majid Takht-Ravanchi as visited Iran this month, said he or annoy the Israeli government to enrich uranium for its nuclear spoken Iran hawk, highlighted his saying. Iran also wants Trump to emphasised to Iranian authorities and their Republican allies.” power programme, which is due differences with the president on return to the 2015 nuclear deal, “the importance of full and timely Another problem is that, the for tender in 2020. Last year, the Iran issue. known as the Joint Comprehen- cooperation.” longer negotiations are delayed, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bolton accused Iran of “work- sive Plan of Action (JCPOA). the further Iran’s starting points bin Salman bin Abdulaziz ing overtime on deception,” as Still, Bolton’s removal from the and red lines will shift. While the warned that the Saudis would the UN General Assembly in New White House was “a major blow to The positions Iranian nuclear programme is develop nuclear arms if Iran did. York drew nearer. His reference to the ‘maximum pressure’ policy on between the United nowhere near its scale before the Turkish President Recep Tayyip the UN meeting came a day after Iran,” Arash Azizi, a writer on Ira- States and Iran nuclear agreement, formally Erdogan recently said he could Trump said a meeting with Iranian nian affairs, said via e-mail. remain far apart. known as the Joint Comprehen- not accept Israel using nuclear President Hassan Rohani on the Azizi said much depended on sive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it is weapons to “scare” other nations sidelines of the General Assembly the response of the Iranian lead- That mirrored a line in a recent expanding. while Ankara, a signatory of the meeting remained “possible.” ership. “It remains to be seen IAEA report on Iran that suggest- On Trump’s watch, Iran has Nuclear Non-Proliferation Speaking after Bolton’s de- whether [Iranian Supreme Leader] ed Tehran wasn’t as forthcoming moved beyond the JCPOA in Treaty, was barred from having parture from the White House, Ayatollah Khamenei, who, even in with answering questions as the several areas: It has expanded its them. US Treasury Secretary Steven the best of times has a paranoiac agency hoped. stockpile of low-enriched In all these circumstances, Iran Mnuchin said Trump was ready to streak, has enough strategic depth In a letter to the IAEA, the Unit- uranium beyond 300 kilograms will not simply revert to a meet with Rohani without precon- to re-enter negotiations with the ed States said: “Iran’s failure to re- and enriched beyond 3.67%. nuclear agreement reached in ditions while maintaining “maxi- US — and, if yes, in what form.” solve the agency’s concerns on this With more advanced centrifuges, 2015, even if JCPOA restrictions mum pressure” on Tehran with Members of the Iranian estab- matter is completely unacceptable which the JCPOA barred until were due to continue until 2025 sanctions. lishment might favour talking and should be of deep concern to 2026, Iran will edge towards or 2030. with the United States because “it all who support the IAEA and its capacity for 20% enrichment. “I think we are looking at a could offer them relief from the safeguards verification regime.” Once at 20%, the centrifuges whole new process of negotia- Iran said after Bolton’s tough conditions of today and a Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin could ease any shift to the 90% tions after Trump,” said Dalton, dismissal that US dramatically new path forward, Netanyahu, one of Trump’s clos- enrichment required for a with Iran accepting a fresh multi- sanctions would have to especially if Trump is hungry for a est allies in the Middle East, said nuclear weapon. lateral process as the United be lifted for talks with the diplomatic victory before the elec- Iran had hidden a site aimed at While US sanctions have States removed “many of their United States to become tions” in the United States next developing nuclear weapons. Iran plunged the Iranian economy unilateral sanctions, especially possible. year, Azizi wrote. destroyed the site, near the city of into recession, they have not led on oil and finance.” The nuclear agreement was Abadeh, south of Isfahan, some- to its collapse nor to the upris- How different might it all Ali Vaez, director of the Iran meant to keep Tehran from build- time between late June and late ings predicted by Bolton. Iran’s look? Project at the International Cri- ing atomic weapons in exchange July after realising that Israel had official oil sales were down in “Perhaps next time, an added sis Group, said Bolton’s removal for economic incentives. Its col- detected it, Netanyahu alleged in July to around 400,000 barrels reason to get an agreement will could open new possibilities. lapse started with the United an address on live television that be the progress Saudi Arabia is “While Bolton’s ouster doesn’t States unilaterally withdrawing included photos of the alleged making in nuclear matters,” said mean the end of Trump’s maxi- from the deal last year and impos- site. Dalton, “and maybe the penny mum pressure strategy, it could ing increased sanctions. The other While Netanyahu accused Iran Confused? You’re not will have dropped that Middle signal more flexibility in leverag- signatories — Britain, France, Ger- of lying about its nuclear ambi- East insecurity needs to be ing sanctions for advancing mu- many, China and Russia, as well as tions, he did not provide evidence the only one. Trump’s tackled not just on an anti-Iran tually beneficial diplomacy with the European Union — have been that Tehran had actively worked firing of national platform but across the Gulf Iran,” Vaez said by e-mail. struggling to salvage the agree- to obtain the bomb since its 2015 security adviser John region and by a group involving “Bolton’s departure improves ment and find a way to meet Teh- nuclear deal with world powers. all concerned parties.” the odds of some sort of diplo- ran’s demands. His accusations, coming ahead of Bolton adds matic breakthrough mediated by Hit hard by Trump’s economic Israel’s elections September 17, challenges for Gareth Smyth is a regular the French at the UN General As- sanctions against its oil industry, prompted Israel’s opposition to contributor to The Arab Weekly. sembly meeting later this month Iran has violated several rules of claim that the prime minister was analysts assessing US He has reported from the Middle in New York.” the 2015 nuclear agreement to using intelligence information for foreign policy. East since 1992. The positions between the prod European powers into buying “campaign antics.” 16 September 15, 2019 News & Analysis East West Israeli elections, US calculations delay Deal of the Century prospects

Emily Przyborowski national Studies, adding that the vote would be decided on “domestic politics and a referendum of Netan- Washington yahu’s leadership.” With Netanyahu’s political career olitical considerations in the hanging in the balance, support from United States and Israel ap- Israel’s hard-right voters may decide pear to be hindering progress the election. Many in Netanyahu’s P in the release of the long- pro-settlement constituencies promised US plan for a settlement would take issue with the release of between Palestinians and the Israe- a Middle East peace plan. lis. Netanyahu has been a close ally No major milestones towards Pal- to the Trump administration, which estinian-Israeli peace are expected has supported even his most ex- until after Israeli elections on Sep- treme moves. Ned Lazarus, a visiting tember 17. Washington’s postpone- professor at the George Washington ment of the release of US President Elliott School, said a Middle East Donald Trump’s Deal of the Century peace plan “would demand some lent further proof to that. kind of concessions from the Israelis Trump announced September 5 and would be unpopular on the hard that Jason Greenblatt was leaving right.” his position as White House envoy Netanyahu has previously vowed for the Middle East peace process, that a Palestinian state would never which could further delay the re- see the light of day. lease of the plan. His close relationship with the “Kushner’s Mideast peace plan United States is also a key issue for will not see the light of day before voters. Lazarus said Netanyahu November 2020 if at all,” said Ilan “does not want to be put in a posi- Goldenberg, director of the Middle tion to appear to have a conflict with East Security Programme at the Cen- the Trump administration” ahead of tre for a New American Security, the election. The delay in making details of the However, the level of relation- Costly gamble. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu points at a map of the Jordan Valley as he peace plan public may work in Is- ship between Trump and Netanyahu gives a statement in Ramat Gan, near the Israeli coastal city of Tel Aviv, September 10. (AFP) raeli Prime Minister Binyamin Net- could sour any potential peace ef- anyahu’s favour as he is courting the fort. Israeli hard right in the election. He Khaled Elgindy, a non-resident sial to the Palestinians was Trump’s anyahu’s claim of sovereignty over Trump administration. is also facing a set of legal troubles. fellow at the Brookings Institution support of Netanyahu’s plans to an- the Golan Heights. Additionally, Since August 2018, the Trump ad- In February, Israel’s attorney general said that, under Trump, the United nex most Israeli settlements in the the United States has drastically re- ministration has phased out more announced that he planned to indict States’ role in the Israeli-Palestinian West Bank. duced its economic assistance to than $200 million in Palestinian Netanyahu on corruption charges. peace process had gone from that of Netanyahu has announced his “in- the Palestinian territories under the economic aid projects and its entire Netanyahu has pursued his re- an “ineffective peace broker to one tention, after the establishment of annual contribution to the UN Relief election campaign despite the alle- of an all-out spoiler.” a new government, to apply Israeli and Works Agency for Palestine Ref- gations, adding to the unpredictabil- Elgindy said Trump’s policies led sovereignty to the Jordan Valley and ugees in the Near East, of which the ity of the Israeli political scene. the Palestinians to realise “that they the northern Dead Sea.” Netanyahu With Netanyahu’s political United States was the largest donor. “We have no idea what will hap- had more to lose from engaging with said there would be “maximum co- career hanging in the pen in the Israeli election,” said Eu- a Trump-led peace process than ordination” between Israelis and the balance, support from Emily Przyborowski is an gene Finkel, a professor at the Johns from avoiding it.” Palestinians on the annexation. Israel’s hard-right voters Arab Weekly correspondent in Hopkins School of Advanced Inter- One action particularly controver- In March, Trump supported Net- may decide the election. Washington.

Viewpoint Greenblatt’s resignation signals US peace plan a mere political exercise

Greenblatt has been working Arab world as circumventing and closely with Jared Kushner, obfuscating the issue of Palestin- Gregory Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, ian sovereignty. Aftandilian on the plan and had travelled Indeed, the peace plan that many times to the region. Greenblatt and Kushner have Greenblatt was a long-time drafted is rumoured not to include he announcement that Trump lawyer who was trusted by an independent Palestinian state. US peace process envoy the president. Initially, this While it is all well and good that Jason Greenblatt would standing gave Greenblatt a certain the plan wants to improve the resign and return to the gravitas because his interlocutors, economic lives of the Palestinians, private sector, even Israelis and Arabs, knew that he without statehood it is hard to before the release of the had Trump’s ear. The same went imagine any Palestinian leader Tpeace plan, indicates that, not for Kushner, particularly since he signing on to a deal. only does the plan stand no chance is married to Trump’s daughter, All this reveals that the true of succeeding, it has become Ivanka. intention of the peace plan was not simply a political exercise. In the beginning months of 2017, to meet minimal Palestinian US President Donald Trump when Trump entered office, there aspirations to strike a deal but to reportedly wants to release the was optimism, even in Palestinian indulge Netanyahu’s vision of plan shortly after the September 17 circles, that perhaps Trump’s annexation of parts of the West Israeli elections. So, if the plan had purported keen interest in the Dim prospects. White House senior adviser Jared Kushner (L) and Bank, which he enunciated in the any possibility of working, why issue might lead to an Israeli-Pal- US peace process envoy Jason Greenblatt (R) before a meeting in final days of the Israeli electoral would one of its chief architects estinian peace deal. New York, February 20. (Reuters) campaign, supposedly with the drop out, even if, as an old saying Trump invited Palestinian concurrence of the Trump in Washington goes, that person Authority President Mahmoud administration. wants to “spend more time with Abbas to the White House and he All of this positive energy was ians, such as closing the office of Revealingly, on hearing news of his family”? courted leaders of the Arab world, disrupted by Trump’s announce- the Palestine Liberation Organisa- Greenblatt’s resignation, Netan- After all, if one’s sole activity in making Riyadh the first foreign ment in December 2017 that he tion, eliminating US funds for the yahu issued a statement thanking government service is to achieve capital that he visited as president. was recognising Jerusalem as UN Relief and Works Agency for him for his “dedicated work for what Trump said was the Deal of Kushner developed a personal Israel’s capital and would move Palestine Refugees in the Near security and peace and for not the Century (an Israeli-Palestinian friendship with Saudi Crown the US Embassy to that city. When East, which has assisted Palestin- hesitating a moment to tell the peace deal) and one has been Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin the Palestinians denounced ian refugees since the late 1940s, truth about the State of Israel in working on this plan for at least Abdulaziz and Kushner met with Trump’s decision and pulled out of and sharply reducing US aid to the front of all its abusers.” two-and-a-half years, why would Abbas and other high-ranking the peace talks, Greenblatt’s Palestinian Authority, was either With the peace plan going one jump ship so close to the Palestinian officials in Ramal- attitudes changed. the height of naivete or reflected nowhere, Trump can at least use it release date? lah. The Washington Post reported his belief that, as the weaker politically in the 2020 election Although the pro-Israeli that the Palestinian pullout left player, the Palestinians should campaign to cast himself as solidly positions and close relations that Greenblatt to “prod negotiations simply accept Israeli dominance on the side of Israel and cast the With the peace plan Kushner and Greenblatt had with on the margins, while the Trump over their situation. Democrats, many of whom have Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin administration took steps to The economic conference that criticised Netanyahu’s policies, as going nowhere, Netanyahu were well-known, isolate and undermine what Greenblatt and Kushner organised the anti-Israel party. Trump can at least use Greenblatt in his talks with Greenblatt called an obstructionist in Bahrain in June also displayed For that, he can thank his it politically in the Palestinian officials displayed a and hidebound Palestinian this naivete. Although it brought long-time lawyer. respectful attitude towards them. leadership.” together some Arab officials and 2020 election As the chief lawyer for Trump’s That Greenblatt was perturbed business people to discuss the Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer campaign to cast real estate business prior to joining that the Palestinian leadership economic benefits of peace, it did in the Pardee School of Global the White House team, Greenblatt would be so angry over the not succeed because it was Studies at Boston University and a himself as solidly on was seen as deploying his profes- Jerusalem decision and Trump’s interpreted by the Palestinians former US State Department the side of Israel. sional skills. punitive measures on the Palestin- and their many supporters in the Middle East analyst. September 15, 2019 17 News & Analysis East West Germany offers to host UN talks on Libya as Turks reinforce military presence

Michel Cousins With the campaign in its sixth United Kingdom and $2 million from month and showing no signs of be- Italy. ing resolved, Salame’s aim is to get German Chancellor Angela Mer- Tunis the international community to kel said the situation in Libya risked convince countries backing the two destabilising the region and that esponding to a call for an sides with arms, supplies and funds Germany would do its best to avoid international conference on to stop doing so. a proxy war in the country. Libya by UN Special Envoy Salame’s view is that, while they Germany’s specific interest in Lib- R for Libya Ghassan Salame, continue to do so, the conflict will ya is immigration, a major political the German government has offered become a war of attrition with nei- and electoral issue in the country. to host the meeting, possibly in No- ther side willing to talk peace. Tur- Speaking at the end of 2018, Chris- vember. key and Qatar have been supporting tian Buck, a previous German am- The Germans aim to avoid the the GNA while Egypt, the United bassador to Libya, said 80-90% of fate of the Paris conference last May Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia back illegal migrants arriving in Italy from and the Palermo meeting of Novem- Haftar. Libya ended up in Germany. ber 2018. Berlin enjoys a reputation “The US is the only one that has The question in Libya is how the of neutrality in Libya, contrary to the influence,” an EU diplomat said, protagonists respond to any confer- France and Italy, which were per- adding he doubted whether Wash- ence. ceived as having taken sides in the ington was prepared to exert the In an interview with the French conflict. pressure needed on the five coun- newspaper Liberation published There were reports that Turk- tries, all of which are its allies in one September 8, Salame said that, be- ish military officials were directing form or another. cause of the stalemate, both sides New rescue bid. A file picture shows German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) operations by troops loyal to the The Gulf states might be persuad- have been forced to be more realistic and Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj arriving for a joint news internationally recognised Govern- ed to relax their involvement but not and that Haftar was willing to pull conferene in Berlin. (AP) ment of National Accord (GNA), led Turkey or Egypt. With their heavy his forces back under certain con- by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in strategic and economic interests in ditions. Those conditions include Tripoli. Libya, it would take extreme pres- guarantees on forces controlling are generally anti-GNA and pro-LNA. From the LNA’s point of view, the The meeting was floated by Sala- sure to make them change policy, Tripoli and a say on appointments to There have been claims of territory issue is manpower. It lacks the num- me before Eid al-Adha and received particularly in the case of Turkey, he important government positions. seized by both sides. “Both sides are ber of troops to carry out its Tripoli unanimous support at the G7 sum- said. The suggestion was denied the fol- lying as never before,” said one usu- offensive. This explains Haftar’s de- mit in August. France is also said to Germany’s offer to host the con- lowing day by Haftar’s spokesman, ally pro-LNA Libyan journalist. It ap- cision to transfer several hundred have gained Russia’s support for it. ference isn’t as surprising as it ini- Major-General Ahmed Mismari. pears the LNA had been pushed onto policemen in the east to the army, Following talks September 9 in tially appeared and it would not be Haftar had not and “never will” take the defensive and GNA forces were a move condemned by Tripoli as il- Moscow with French Foreign Min- the first time it has hosted a meeting such a view, he insisted. more coordinated and effective than legal. ister Jean-Yves Le Drian, Russian meant to resolve the Libya crisis. In Mismari also rejected Salame’s previously. Despite Salame’s statement about Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said June 2015, Libyan negotiators were hopes of resuming dialogue, saying “They [the GNA] have regained air Haftar and a possible pullback, the the Russian and French positions in Berlin for the UN Support Mission the time for talks was over. The LNA capacity,” noted another journalist, field-marshal is unlikely to make on Libya were “extremely close.” in Libya’s dialogue process, which was committed to capturing Tripoli referring to an GNA air strike near such a move despite the troop short- “We are in agreement on the need resulted in the creation of the GNA. and was on course to achieve it, he Bani Walid on LNA vehicles carrying ages. to establish a dialogue between the Germany is one of the biggest insisted. missiles towards Tarhouna. The same goes for Sarraj. Regard- Libyan government and the forces of providers of international aid to Following the LNA’s failed at- The change in the GNA’s military less of what he and his government Marshal Haftar,” Lavrov said. Libya. At the beginning of last year, tempts to retake the strategically capabilities is said to be due to a might want, they are not the masters The proposed conference is not the figure was $260 million and the important town of Gharyan, 100km Turkish military presence. Reports of the situation on the ground. The about improving relations between amount has increased since then. south of Tripoli, earlier this month, that Turkish military officials were militias are and they, particularly the GNA and Field-Marshal Khalifa It also tops the list of donors to the GNA forces launched an offensive to- directing GNA operations were Islamic militants backing Sarraj, are Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), UN Development Programme’s Sta- wards Tarhouna, south-east of Trip- backed by a European diplomat who bitterly opposed to negotiations as was the aim of the last November’s bilisation Facility for Libya, having oli, which is the main base for LNA said: “There are no Turkish boots on with Haftar. meeting in Palermo. Those efforts given $32.6 million, compared to the operations in the area. the ground but we know that Turk- ended when Haftar launched an of- United States’ $8 million, Japan’s The military situation has been ex- ish military personnel are now run- Michel Cousins is a contributor to fensive to take Tripoli on April 4. $6.5 million, $3 million from the tremely fluid in an area where locals ning operations.” The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. Viewpoint Jihadist-owned private military company unsettles Russia

Malhama Tactical was founded experience in Syria to pursue jihad ing videos on how to handle Garev outlined Moscow’s anxieties in May 2016 by a 24-year-old in their home regions. Adding to weapons and carry out military about the group: “Presuming that Uzbek, initially known only by his this concern are media reports operations. On YouTube, Malhama outlawed armed groups in Idlib kunya Abu Rofiq al-Tartarstani stating that Malhama Tactical Tactical members posted tutorials consist of about 80,000 members, John C.K. Daly until Russian intelligence dis- members had demonstrated high about firing weapons as well as then there must be at least 5,000 closed his identity as Sukhrob combat efficiency in Aleppo and battle tactics in small groups. to 6,000 Russian-speaking Muratovich Baltabaev. He said he later in Idlib and Latakia prov- In an audacious display of their militants. Their wives and children had lived in Moscow and served in inces. social media expertise and their have started returning to Russia any aspects of the a special forces unit of the Russian Malhama Tactical works lack of fear of intelligence agen- and other [Commonwealth of US-led military Army. exclusively with Islamist groups, cies, in January 2017, the group on Independent States] CIS coun- operation in Iraq From its inception, Malhama primarily Hayat Tahrir Facebook and Twitter posted a job tries. in 2003 continue Tactical has operated as an al-Sham and the opening seeking instructors with “Chances are that once the to reverberate independent outfit, training rebel Islamic State, which military experience to join a “fun militant groups are defeated, the throughout the and jihadi groups in Syria’s Idlib, is banned in the and friendly team” to provide terrorists and members of these MMiddle East, from the question- Hama and Aleppo provinces. It has Russian Federa- “professional training sessions jihadist private military compa- able legality of the endeavour to been increasing its prominence in tion. on military theory and practice” nies, set up with the assistance of the American government’s Idlib, training foreign jihadis and Beyond for jihadis lacking combat expe- Russia’s enemies, will follow the deployment of its first private an elite unit of Hayat Tahrir combat opera- rience. Potential mentors were women and children. We are military company, Blackwater. al-Sham. tions, Malhama promised “a good salary and bracing for that.” Under CIA control, Blackwater’s Malhama Tactical was led by Tactical has one day off per week.” Some Baltabaev’s pseudocide under- mercenaries became notorious for Abu Rofiq until his purported established a social Malhama Tactical YouTube videos lines the very real fear that their actions, many of which could death in an air strike in Idlib on media pres- gave details for those who militants from the post-Soviet be considered war crimes, February 7, 2017. In a recent ence, want to support the space have about being tracked by blackening private military interview, however, Rofik releas- group’s activities Russian intelligence and subse- companies’ reputation to such an acknowledged that he faked his with money. quently hunted down by special extent that, in 2011, Blackwater own death and used the name of Russian forces. Accordingly, social media was renamed Academi after being Abu Salman al-Belarusi to avoid Foreign Minister visibility is a two-edged sword: acquired by a group of private being targeted by Russian security Sergei Lavrov while providing an opportunity to investors. forces. On August 17, his death was has stated that advertise, the electronic presence An invaluable aspect of the reported yet again, to some the govern- provides the increased opportu- private firms is to provide the scepticism, by Russian media. ment believes nity to be located and neutral- governments utilising them What is most disturbing to the that 5,000- ised. “plausible deniability.” Blackwa- Russian government is that Rofiq 6,000 Obviously, “neutralising” ter’s success led to other govern- is from Uzbekistan and speaks Russian post-Soviet space militants in ments deploying such companies, Russian well and post-Soviet nationals Syria is preferable for Moscow to notably Russia, where the Wagner Central Asia has seen a rise in have them returning home. Their mercenary group has seen action extremism as the region rediscov- engaged in presence on the internet will be everywhere from Ukraine to ers its Islamic heritage. jihad in more difficult to eradicate than a Syria. Malhama Tactical’s core Syria. purely military operation can This model of success now membership reportedly numbers Russian accomplish, however, and, in the extends to the terrorist “private more than 50 militants, primarily Colonel interim, they continue to inflict sector” with the appearance of the from formerly Soviet Central Asia Shamil more sorrow upon Syria’s long- Middle East’s first jihadist private and the northern Caucasus. Russia suffering populace. military company, Malhama and other post-Soviet govern- A thorn in Russia’s side. Founder of Malhama Tactical Abu Tactical, an ominous development ments are concerned these Salman al-Belarusi, initially known only by his kunya Abu Rofiq John C.K. Daly is a Washington- with potential implications far militant nationals will return al-Tartarstani. (Twitter) based specialist on Russian and beyond the troubled region. home after acquiring combat post-Soviet affairs. 18 September 15, 2019 Economy

Viewpoint Briefs

New Saudi oil minister faces daunting task Dubai weighs comeback to global debt markets

The government of Dubai Jareer Elass has met with banks about a potential issue of US dollar- denominated bonds, two ithin a dizzy- sources familiar with the matter ing 10-day told Reuters, in what would be span, the its first international debt sale government of since 2013. Saudi King A potential deal is likely to Salman bin see investors pour money into WAbdulaziz Al Saud split one the notes, as global buyers seek critical ministry into two and high-yielding assets in a low- reshuffled key players in its rate environment. energy management team. The Dubai government raised Riyadh’s latest move involves $1.25 billion in 2013 through the unprecedented replacement Islamic and conventional bonds. of a civil servant at the head of the Energy Ministry with the (Reuters) king’s son. The dramatic changes not only highlight the swift fall from grace of former Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih but also Egypt overhauling the Saudi government’s strong tax procedures to desire to elevate oil prices ahead of a seemingly expedited initial lure investors public offering (IPO) of state oil and gas giant Saudi Aramco. Egypt hopes to boost foreign However, the kingdom’s new direct investment by automat- oil minister will face the same ing and simplifying customs and challenge that Falih had in tax processes, Egyptian Finance trying to push up oil prices to Minister Mohamed Maait said, ac- help Riyadh with its budgetary knowledging that much needed needs and support a higher to be done. valuation of Saudi Aramco amid Egypt is coming out of a 3-year increasing signs of a weakening IMF-backed reform programme global economy. that helped stabilise the econo- King Salman’s decree removed my. Falih from his post overseeing Eminently qualified. New Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz speaks “I have to be very honest. the Energy Ministry and at the World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi, September 9. (AP) There is a lot of work we have to installed his son, Prince do to make us more attractive Abdulaziz bin Salman bin to foreign direct investment,” Abdulaziz, as oil minister. The that significant and powerful Oil Minister Ahmed Zaki al-Yam- Ministry. Maait said in an interview on the appointment of Prince portfolio. The Salman doctrine, ani and subsequently to Yamani’s Falih had fallen afoul of the sidelines of the Euromoney Egypt Abdulaziz to head the Energy however, has proven to be replacement, Hisham Nazer, Saudi leadership by not being conference. Ministry breaks a nearly 60-year untraditional both in economic before being named deputy oil supportive enough of the Aramco tradition of a commoner holding and foreign policy and in solidify- minister in 1995 under the era of IPO process, failing to move oil (Reuters) that job, with the kingdom’s five ing power through control over Ali al-Naimi. prices beyond current levels of previous oil ministers all civil key ministries and institutions. In 2005, Prince Abdulaziz was around $60 a barrel and his servants. The new oil minister There has been an implicit named assistant oil minister, a inability to draw foreign and sought to reassure oil markets, understanding that a civil servant position he held until April 2017, domestic investment into the Iraq resists US saying there would be “no in the job of oil minister could be when King Salman appointed him country’s non-oil sector — a key radical” change in Saudi oil easily sacrificed should the Saudi Minister of State for Energy element of the country’s eco- pressure to reduce policy. government decide its energy Affairs. He was rumoured as a nomic restructuring programme, Iranian gas imports policy was not being imple- potential replacement for Naimi Saudi Vision 2030. mented correctly or when Riyadh in 2016 but the job went to Falih. The new oil minister has been Iraq will struggle to generate wanted to signal to oil markets The prince holds a master’s attending OPEC meetings as a enough electricity unless it con- Falih had fallen afoul that it was taking a fresh degree in business administra- member of the Saudi delegation tinues to use Iranian gas for three of the Saudi approach with new blood. The tion from King Fahd University of for 30 years and is well-regarded to four more years, the country’s leadership by not appointment of Prince Abdulaziz, Petroleum and Minerals. as a skilled negotiator. He was electricity minister said, resisting an elder son of King Salman and Prince Abdulaziz takes over an instrumental in helping convince US pressure to stop imports from being supportive half-brother to Crown Prince Energy Ministry that has been other OPEC delegations to its neighbour. enough of the Aramco Mohammed bin Salman bin substantially downsized by his participate in a production-cut- Iraq has a US waiver to import Abdulaziz, throws an interesting father. In late August, King ting agreement along with Iranian gas but Washington has IPO process. wrinkle into the relationship that Salman issued a decree that independent producers that went been pressing Baghdad to phase the oil minister typically has with separated the Energy, Industry into effect in 2017 to help drive the imports out. The Saudi leadership tradi- the top Saudi leadership. and Mineral Resources Ministry up oil prices. “At the end of the day it is an tionally has had a commoner The prince is eminently into two ministries. The split will The OPEC+ group has extended open market,” Iraqi Electricity who was an oil technocrat qualified to serve as the Gulf go into effect January 1, with the its initial agreement to withdraw Minister Luay al-Khatteeb said on leading the Saudi Energy country’s oil minister. He is an oil prince overseeing the Energy 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) the sidelines of the World Energy Ministry to avoid upsetting the technocrat with more than three Ministry and Saudi private sector from oil markets several times. Congress in Abu Dhabi. balance of power within the Al decades of experience in the investor and businessman Bandar Riyadh has continued to produce Saud family by allowing a prince Saudi Energy Ministry. In 1985, Alkhorayef running the new far lower than its assigned quota (Reuters) from one royal branch to direct he was appointed an adviser to Industry and Mineral Resources in a bid to push up oil prices, with Saudi output consistently less than 10 million bpd. Prince Abdulaziz said on September 9 IMF says Saudi Arabia Oil producers pledge to respect output cuts that the OPEC+ alliance was “staying for the long term.” should consider The International Monetary raising VAT to 10% Omar Hasan a committee of producers charged months until the end of March Fund has suggested that the with monitoring the cuts and as- 2020 but that failed to invigorate kingdom needs $85 a barrel oil to sessing the oil market met in Abu the market and observers said balance its budget and ideally, Saudi Arabia should consider Abu Dhabi Dhabi. the usual levers to control prices Riyadh wants at least $80 a barrel doubling its value added tax to Prince Abdulaziz said the wider seem to be having little effect. for a higher-valued IPO. How- 10%, the International Monetary il producers pledged to OPEC+ alliance, which includes The United Arab Emirates ever, there is weaker global oil Fund (IMF) said, stressing the comply with output cuts Russia, is prepared to act to pro- pledged to further cut its output demand growth being felt this importance for the world’s top oil aimed at rebalancing the tect the market if sanctions-hit by October and Iraq and Nigeria year and that is expected to spill exporter to improve its fiscal posi- O sagging market but of- Iran, also a member of the group, said they would withdraw a total over into 2020. tion amid lower crude prices. fered no further reductions, a returns to the market. of 230,000 barrels per day. The US Department of Energy’s In a report, the IMF said that a sign they are short on options in He told the Joint Ministerial “September export levels will Energy Information Administra- tighter fiscal policy was needed, a market depressed by US-China Monitoring Committee meeting be significantly lower than August tion revised downward its 2020 as the Saudi budget deficit is pro- tensions. that it was imperative to restore and there will be deeper cuts in average price forecasts for UK jected to widen. OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia stability in the oil market, where October,” Iraqi Oil Minister Tham- benchmark crude Brent and US The IMF said it expects the led calls to abide by promises on prices have slumped to less than er al-Ghadban said. benchmark crude West Texas budget deficit to increase this production curbs that the cartel $60 a barrel. Saudi Arabia, which has been Intermediate (WTI) by $3 a barrel year to 6.5% of GDP from 5.9% hopes will drive up prices — with Dubbed OPEC+, the 24-member shouldering the burden of exist- each, with Brent expected to of GDP in 2018 as higher govern- some, including Nigeria and Iraq, alliance of cartel and non-cartel ing production cuts, will continue average $62 a barrel and WTI to ment expenditure is likely to curb accused of exceeding their quo- producers decided last year to to reduce its oil production “at a average $56.50 next year, which the upside of stronger non-oil tas. cut output by 1.2 million barrels rate exceeding the quota agreed means the new Saudi oil minister economic growth. “Every country should live up per day (bpd) from January 2019, through OPEC+,” Prince Ab- faces a daunting task. to its commitments,” new Saudi to boost prices after they fell by dulaziz said. (Reuters) Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz more than 40%. Jareer Elass reports from bin Salman bin Abdulaziz said as The cuts were extended by nine (Agence France-Presse) Washington on energy issues for The Arab Weekly. September 15, 2019 19 Economy Seeking additional tax revenue, Egypt tackles informal commerce

Amr Emam

Cairo

gypt’s economic planners are searching for ways to inte- grate the informal economy E into the formal sector to de- rive additional tax revenue. Egypt’s informal economy in- cludes more than 50% of overall economic activities. These untaxed transactions deprive the treasury of an enormous amount of money each year. In May 2018, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi urged informal labourers to legalise their status, of- fering tax exemptions for five years. Sisi’s attempt to reduce informal trade is likely fuelled by a looming financial crisis. Egypt’s 2019-20 state budget, which began in July, allo- cates 1.58 trillion Egyptian pounds ($99.3 billion) at a deficit of 445.1 billion pounds ($27.8 billion). Sisi’s government wants to collect $51.9 billion in taxes, which it is hoping to bring in from economic activity cur- rently off the books. “Incorporating all these economic Off the books. People shop at a popular market in downtown Cairo. (Reuters) activities into the formal sector is becoming an urgent matter,” said sity. “This is the crux of the whole the informal sector, which unfairly In addition to hurting informal “This is why the government is very Mohamed Badrawi, a member of the problem.” competes with the formal one across workers and undermining the for- keen on merging informal activities Economic Committee in parliament. Tax evasion is widespread in nearly all industries. Apart from mal sector, this costs Egypt a “huge into the formal economy.” “These activities can bring in ur- Egypt, depriving the government of skipping out on taxes, informal busi- amount of investment,” said Khaled gently needed revenues for the state billions of dollars per year. nesses pay no health or social insur- Qandeel, chairman of the Economic Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly treasury.” The problem is compounded by ance and often underpay workers. Committee at the liberal Wafd Party. contributor in Cairo. Hundreds of markets, thousands of factories and tens of thousands of shops and restaurants operate outside the formal sector. Billions of Morocco FDI declines amid EU slowdown dollars are circulated every year as part of economic and business trans- actions without documentation or registration. Saad Guerraoui Morocco is the fourth most at- be the leading destination for FDI in countries such as Spain and Portugal, In 2018, the Federation of Egyp- tractive destination for foreign the MENA region. especially in the tourism sector be- tian Industries, the guild of the na- investors in the Middle East and Financial expert Lotfi Abourizk cause of the competitive prices, un- tion’s manufacturers, published a Casablanca North Africa, a report of the Arab said the Moroccan investment model like in Morocco, where the sector is study stating that informal econom- Investment and Export Credit began to slow despite political stabil- offering “unaffordable” prices in the ic activities constituted 60% of the oreign direct investments in Guarantee Corporation for the year ity and a strategic location. “Morocco most-sought tourist spots. Egyptian economy. Morocco declined 17.2% at the 2019 stated. has to turn now to European Stand- The European Union and Rabat The government recently submit- end of July compared to the Most FDI in Morocco is from the ard models to hope to see foreign in- last June established the European ted a bill to parliament that would F same period last year, raising European Union, which is going vestments resume their momentum External Investment Plan in Morocco require heads of small projects to questions about the country’s invest- through an economic slowdown re- in the country,” he said. “It is also to allow for a better business environ- register with the government. The ment attractiveness. lated to the US-China trade dispute understood that administrative slow- ment and to boost economic devel- legislation would provide incentives Foreign direct investments (FDI) and Brexit uncertainty that could ness besides the meagre tax benefits opment. to the owners, such as health and so- totalled 10.5 billion Moroccan dir- lead the European continent into are also hampering foreign direct in- “The European External Invest- cial insurance, tax exemptions and hams ($1.5 billion) at the end of July economic recession. vestments.” ment Plan will help leverage signifi- access to bank loans. against 12.7 billion dirhams ($1.8 Experts said the Moroccan gov- The decline in money transfers by cant private funds into key sectors “The bill will also help the own- billion) for the same period in 2018 ernment must significantly im- Moroccans Residing Abroad (MRE) at of Morocco’s economy. The plan will ers of these projects to expand their because of a 16% increase in FDI ex- prove the country’s international the end of July, estimated at 1% com- in turn empower local entrepreneurs businesses,” said Rashad Abdo, an penditures and a 4.7% decrease in attractiveness and competitiveness pared to the same period last year, and create jobs in the country,” said economics professor at Cairo Uni- revenues, the Office des Changes re- and offer a favourable business en- also took a toll on FDI in Morocco. Johannes Hahn, commissioner for versity. “When they become part of ported. vironment to foreign companies to MREs are investing in European Enlargement Negotiations and Euro- the formal sector, these owners will pean Neighbourhood Policy. also serve the national economy by “This new and innovative ap- paying taxes.” proach will also help carry out big sustainable development projects, which otherwise would not have Egypt’s informal economy been possible at all or would have includes more than 50% of been significantly smaller.” overall economic activities. The flow of Morocco’s overseas These untaxed transactions direct investments (IDME) rose 3 bil- deprive the treasury of an lion dirhams ($297 million) to 5.6 bil- enormous amount of money lion dirhams ($564 million) in 2019, each year. against 2.7 billion dirhams ($267 million) a year earlier, the Office des Egypt’s parliament earlier amend- Changes said. ed a law that makes registration nec- The rise in IDME was explained essary for the thousands of street by Morocco’s increasing investments food carts. Parliament has changed in key sectors such as telecommuni- the law regulating the work of pri- cation and banking in Africa as part vate limited and share-holding com- of Rabat’s south-south cooperation panies. In July, parliament approved strategy. a measure making it necessary for More Moroccan companies are in- all shops to seek registration and li- vesting in the emerging African mar- censing. ket despite the geopolitical risks. The Federation of Egyptian Indus- “It must be kept in mind that Africa tries study said that tax revenues is not a land of investment regulated from informal economic activities like a Swiss watch in the sense that could generate $84 billion a year if the continent presents hazards that they become part of the formal sec- often have to be dealt with,” Hicham tor. Boudraa, acting director general of However, this is why those in- the Moroccan Agency for Investment volved in the informal economy do and Export Development, told La not want to register their businesses, Nouvelle Tribune. economists said. “These people do not want to pay Saad Guerraoui is a contributor to taxes,” said Yumn al-Hamaqi, a pro- Fourth most attractive destination. A view at the financial district in Casablanca. (Saad Guerraoui) The Arab Weekly on Maghreb issues. fessor of economics at Cairo Univer- 20 September 15, 2019 Society Environment

New menace. Cement barriers reinforce the sea wall near the Citadel of Qaitbay in Alexandria. (AP) Alexandria battles climate change

Hassan Abdel Zaher That would be catastrophic for Egypt because the Nile Delta in- cludes the country’s most fertile Cairo farmland, producing more than 50% of its food. nvironmental engineers are “Soil salinity is the most immedi- working on a project to pro- ate effect from global warming in tect the 15th-century Cita- the Nile Delta,” said environmental E del of Qaitbay, which is on expert Sayed Sabri. “It limits pro- a stretch of land extending into the ductivity, a big problem for Egypt, ancient port of Egypt’s northern which struggles to feed its people.” city of Alexandria. Egypt’s population growth out- Egyptian authorities are invest- paced its food production in the ing $14 million in the project, past two decades, the United Na- which involves dropping 4,700 tions’ Food and Agriculture Or- concrete blocks of various sizes ganisation said. This makes the and weights around the fortress to country increasingly dependent on protect it from waves that threaten imports, especially of basic crops to destroy it in a matter of years. such as wheat. Residents of the coastal cit- ies saw the ugly result of climate Tens of thousands of change in 2015 and 2018 when un- concrete blocks and precedented heavy rains inundat- reinforcements have been ed hundreds of streets and homes dropped into the sea to keep and destroyed millions of dollars the waves at bay and in private property. Several people prevent coastal erosion. died and hundreds of families were displaced. Thousands of trucks have shut- “It was a painful experience,” tled between Cairo and Alexandria, said Sherif Farouk, a grocery store carrying 40,000 tonnes of concrete. owner from Alexandria in his mid- Qaitbay is at the forefront of Al- 40s. “Since then, everybody is exandria’s battle against climate afraid that such a tragedy will be- Different times. A recent picture of Stanley Beach in Alexandria at the same site where a 1933 change. It was constructed almost fall the city again.” photograph was taken. (AP) half a millennium ago to protect Environmentalists downplay the the city against foreign invaders. fears, attributing their calm to the from the Green Climate Fund, a It needs protection, as do all of location of the city above the sea. financial mechanism of the UN Alexandria and its population of 5 Other coastal cities, they say, in- Framework Convention on Climate million, now from climate change- cluding the Suez Canal city of Port Change. It includes measures for induced rise in the sea level and Said, are in more peril. the protection of the Port of Alex- shifting weather conditions. The sea level rose an average of andria and marine life. “This rise will have adverse ef- 1.8 millimetres annually until 1993, fects on Alexandria and other the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation coastal cities,” said Saber Osman, and Water Resources said. Over the Egypt has 3,000km of the head of the Department for following 20 years, the sea level coastline but that is not the Adaptation with Climate Change average rise was 2.1 millimetres a only place the effects of at the Ministry of Environmental year, it added, noting that the rise climate change are felt. Affairs. “It will affect everything in was 3.2 millimetres a year since the city from economic activities to 2012. There is, however, concern over the long-term possibility of inun- Qaitbay fortress is one of the an- the environmental effects of the dation.” cient wonders in Alexandria. They measures Egypt takes to protect its Egypt has 3,000km of coastline are at the centre of work by author- coasts. Despite their importance, but that is not the only place the ities to shield the city against sea some measures could negatively af- effects of climate change are felt. waves and the rising sea level. fect marine life, experts said. Farmers in other parts of Egypt re- Tens of thousands of concrete “They will lead to a biologi- port a decline in productivity and blocks and reinforcements have cal change in the sea,” said Suzan crop loss because of rising temper- been dropped into the sea to keep Kholeif, director of the Institute atures. the waves at bay and prevent coast- for Oceanography and Fisheries The low-lying Nile Delta expects al erosion. The city is also widening in Cairo. “We are badly in need of to be most prone to climate change- its beaches by dropping hundreds technical support from advanced induced issues, including the pos- of tonnes of sand into the sea in an- nations that use more modern sibility that there will be an altering other bid to mitigate erosion. coast protection methods.” switch in the nature of the delta’s Osman’s department oversees soil and an increase of salinity. a project for the protection of the Hassan Abdel Zaher is a Cairo- Adapting to sea level rise. A fisherman and his cat stand beside a The worst scenario of inundation coast in Alexandria. The project based contributor to The Arab cement barrier placed as reinforcement against rising water levels would displace millions of people. received $32 million in financing Weekly. in Alexandria. (AP) September 15, 2019 21 Society Scars of War Music initiative soothes the soul of traumatised child refugees

Roufan Nahhas Cooperation is boosted through custom-designed musical group ac- tivities in addition to encouraging Amman decision making by taking specific musical responsibilities in the music ar trauma, displacement sessions.” and poor living condi- A UNICEF evaluation of children’s tions in cramped refu- psychological conditions before and W gee camps are some of after participating in the “My Mu- the sufferings experienced by Syrian sic” initiative indicated that most of children. Some in the Zaatari camp them developed diverse skills. in Jordan have found solace through “Music interaction and communi- UNICEF’s “My Music” initiative. cation signs were evaluated to meas- The “My Music” initiative came ure the effect of the programme. as an aid to young refugees who suf- The changes were analysed and the fer from displacement. Of Syria’s 6.2 results indicated that about 66% of million displaced people, 2.6 mil- participants developed more diverse lion are children, the United Nations and meaningful skills over 16 ses- said. In Jordan, approximately 1,700 sions,” Zibdeh said. children aged 6-15 have enrolled in “The music communication pro- the programme. gress was assessed through tracing the musical development for each child in every specific activity. It A UNICEF evaluation of was clear from the data that many children’s physiological children benefited from the pro- condition before and after gramme.” participating in the “My She said Hammad, a 12-year-old Music” initiative indicated Syrian refugee who lost all his fam- that most of them developed ily in the war, was extremely ag- diverse skills. gressive, secluded and refused to interact with other children. Music Developing skills. Young Syrian refugees enjoy a session of UNICEF’s “My Music” initiative. (UNICEF) “Children and families in the ref- therapy helped him become more ugee camps had experienced loss positive, respectful and gentle with and violence and, at times, face his peers. gional ambassador, musician and “Music has been used to treat are enrolled in 32 schools, with 58 challenges related to a lack of social Another case is that of 11-year-old composer, began the music therapy stress, mental, emotional and be- community centres offering activi- cohesion in the camps. To address Zein, who overcame shyness and programme in 2018 in Azraq, a small- havioural problems, in addition to ties. UNICEF plans to expand the these issues, UNICEF introduced started participating and communi- er Syrian refugee camp in Jordan. depression and anxiety. This initia- programme outside refugee camps the innovative music therapy pro- cating with other children. Taking “My Music” was tested for a year tive helped children who have been by training new facilitators and es- gramme,” said Seema al-Zibdeh, the part in the programme seemed to at UNICEF’s child-friendly Makani affected by the war to cope with loss tablishing monitoring and evalua- agency’s child protection officer in reduce her anxiety about social in- centres in Azraq Camp, which pro- and grief and help with their com- tion mechanisms, Zibdeh said. Zaatari. teraction. vide an integrated set of services to munication and social skills,” Riz- “We are strengthening the effec- “The programme focuses on mu- The programme’s limited capac- more than 4,000 children, including kallah said. tiveness of the project and will ex- sic communication groups and aims ity was a big challenge. “The pro- learning support, community-based “The pain children feel when they pand its capacity to include adoles- to strengthen the social cohesion gramme is designed to cater for a child protection, early childhood lose a parent is immeasurable. Can cents (11-16 years) and, of course, we among refugee children and their specific number of children, so many development, adolescent and youth you imagine the pain they feel when are looking for sustainability of mu- families to deal with their experienc- are on a long waiting list. We also participation, life skills and innova- they also lose their home, friends sic programmes through establish- es of loss and assist in their future,” need to do more capacity building tion labs. and relatives? Music plays a vital and ment of core group of facilitators,” Zibdeh said. and training for the volunteers due Music educator Rana Rizkallah fundamental role in their lives and she said. “It also provides a safe space for to the high rotation in the camp,” Zi- said music has been used as therapy helps them compensate what they creativity and enhances group com- bdeh said. for years and it has proven to have a miss.” Roufan Nahhas is a journalist based munication and free self-expression. Zade Dirani, UNICEF MENA re- positive effect on children. In Zaatari, nearly 19,000 children in Jordan. Yazidi mothers of ISIS children face impossible choices

Oumayma Omar While appearing to approve of ents are recognised and non-Yazidis the decision of the Yazidi Supreme cannot convert to the Yazidi faith. Spiritual Council, the community’s In 2014, Yazidi elders declared that Baghdad highest religious authority, Saeed women and girls taken by ISIS could was, in reality, forced to abandon be religiously “purified” and wel- ive years ago, the life of Sher- her child. comed back since they were raped een Saeed and thousands of “Her story about abandoning her and enslaved against their will. In other Yazidi women turned son willingly is not true,” said a so- April that year, the Yazidi Supreme F into a nightmare when Is- cial activist working with Yazidi sur- Spiritual Council issued a statement lamic States fighters invaded the vivors who asked to be identified as that suggested it would be willing to Sinjar region in northern Iraq. Men Jihad. accept the children, too. were killed, children abducted and “She was compelled to give up However, it was retracted the next women and girls raped, enslaved her son in a very harsh way. She was day following pressure from con- and forced to endure other unspeak- beaten hard by her family for initial- servative Yazidis, who argued that able atrocities. ly refusing to abandon the child who accepting children born in captivity Almost two years after the Is- was taken away from her as soon as would compromise the purity of the lamic State (ISIS) lost its territory, she arrived in Iraq from al-Hol camp Yazidi bloodline. Yazidi women who escaped from in Syria. She does not know where Consequently, hundreds of babies captivity are still suffering but now they took him and lives in constant taken away from their mothers af- at the hands of their own commu- fear and anxiety,” Jihad said. ter they were freed are believed to nity. They are faced with a tortuous be scattered in orphanages across choice: abandon their children born northern Syria and beyond. of ISIS fighters while in captivity or Asked about the fate of the Ali Khedhir Ilyas, a Yazidi Su- be banished, a condition set by the abandoned children, Ilyas preme Spiritual Council official, Yazidi Supreme Spiritual Council for said: “Many European said the council’s decision to reject them to reintegrate into the commu- countries, such as France children born of ISIS fathers did nity. and Germany, are willing to not constitute a violation of Yazidi “It was a right decision, which I take in ISIS women and women’s rights but aimed at pre- respected by handing over my son children.” serving the community’s traditions to the Syrian Democratic Forces,” and religious customs. Saeed said. “I managed to escape af- Saeed’s story is among dozens of “We have strict traditions that ter my kidnapper was killed in battle similar cases facing the religious- cannot be overruled or reversed, Heartbreaking stories. A Yazidi woman and mother of three child- and returned to my village in Sinjar.” ethnic minority. It is estimated that just like Muslims and other religions ren fathered by an ISIS fighter talks to reporters at a makeshift Saeed was a teenager when ISIS 80% of the Yazidi women rescued or sects that live in a conservative house on the outskirts of the north-western Iraqi town of Baadre, attacked her village, destroyed her from ISIS have had children fathered oriental society,” Ilyas said. June 25. (AFP) home and abducted her and her by their captors. “It is true that initially we said younger sister. They were taken to Yazidis are estimated to number we welcome back Yazidis and their Raqqa in Syria where she was “sold” more than 500,000, concentrated children after more than two years European countries, such as France There is no public or official figure to a Bahraini fighter, the father of mainly in northern Iraq. Their re- in captivity and rape by ISIS fighters and Germany, are willing to take in of the children born to ISIS fathers. Sayyaf, her 4-year-old son. ligion is monotheistic and can be but we had to issue another state- ISIS women and children.” Directorate General of Yazidi Affairs “I was enslaved for more than traced to ancient Mesopotamian ment to clarify that survivors and Ilyas denied accusations that sur- in Kurdistan said 6,417 Yazidis were three years. ISIS beat us and separat- religions. Yazidis who marry non- their children from Yazidi fathers vivors were being harshly treated. kidnapped, 3,425 reportedly survived ed my sister and me from my father Yazidis are considered to have con- are welcomed only. The community He said: “They are welcomed to re- and the rest are unaccounted for. and brothers. They took the men verted to the religion of their spouse cannot accept children who do not integrate their families according away and we still don’t know what and are not recognised as part of the belong to it.” to the conditions and rules set by Oumayma Omar, based in Baghdad, happened to them. I guess they have community. Asked about the fate of the aban- the Yazidi religion, which goes back is a contributor to the Culture and been killed,” Saeed said. Only children born to Yazidi par- doned children, Ilyas said: “Many thousands of years.” Society section of The Arab Weekly. 22 September 15, 2019 Culture

Chasing peace. “Al Ahwar in Iraq” by Hassan al Najjar. Once upon a time. A photo by Arima (Courtesy of Dar al Mussawir) Aboud. (Courtesy of Dar al Mussawir) First Image Festival turns Beirut into outdoor gallery Capturing magic. “Beirut” by Nabil Ismail. (Courtesy of Dar al Mussawir)

Samar Kadi souks, the Roman baths archaeologi- made it to the exhibitions was done The festival featured conceptual other through Beirut Image Festi- cal site in the downtown area and by a committee of professional pho- and personal shows specifically val’s website and Facebook page. Ain Mreisseh corniche, the festival tographers, editors and artists,” he commissioned for the occasion. It also gives photographers a great Beirut features 600 photographs by 122 said, adding that the works reflected One is “Lebanon 1919” showing exposure.” photographers from 25 countries, the diversity of the photography historic photos of Beirut from the The exhibitions are to be taken to eirut and other parts of selected from a pool of more than world, including news, documenta- Albert Kahn collection, and con- Saida and Tyre in southern Leba- Lebanon have been turned 3,800 images. ry, travel, experimental and concep- temporary “Beirut” by Lebanese non, Tripoli in the north, Baalbek in into open galleries display- It was organised by Zakira (the tual photography. photojournalist Nabil Ismail. Other eastern Lebanon and Hammana in B ing photos from around the Image Festival Association) in col- “We can say it is one of the first projects include “Fisherman of Mount Lebanon. world in the inaugural edition of laboration with the Union of Arab festivals of its kind in the Arab world Ras Beirut” (Beirut waterfront) by “Our main concern is to engage the Beirut Image Festival promot- Photographers and Dar al-Mussawir in terms of scale and broad focus. Naamani that sheds light on the dy- the public at large to come and see ing photography culture in the Arab and with the support of Beirut Mu- It covers a large variety of themes ing profession largely caused by the the photos and learn about the im- region. nicipality. placed under the general title of pollution of the sea near Beirut and portance of photography. That is “The dream has finally come true. “When we made an open call for ‘Around the World,’ has diverse pho- “Lebanon Prison” by photographer why we insisted on having the pho- The idea of having the event con- participation, we did not expect to tographer profiles and broad partici- Haitham Mussawi on poor prison tos displayed outdoor in public plac- cerning photography has been cir- receive such a large number of en- pation from the Arab world,” Naam- conditions in Lebanon. es in addition to indoor galleries,” culating for quite a long time,” said tries. The response was enormous. ani said. Naamani said the event is an occa- Naamani said. Marwan Naamani, a photojournalist Entries came from more than 700 Participating photographers were sion to celebrate pioneer Arab wom- and one of the organisers of the fes- photographers, including profes- from India and Canada, in addition en photographers Karima Abboud, a tival, which runs through October 5. sionals and amateurs, from the Arab to Europe and Arab countries, in- Lebanese-Palestinian, and Marie al- Taking place in more than Taking place in more than nine region and internationally,” Naama- cluding Lebanon, Egypt, the Pales- Khazen, from a prominent Lebanese nine venues across venues across Beirut, including gal- ni said. tinian territories, Iraq, the Maghreb family. They played important roles Beirut, including leries and public spaces such as old “The final selection of photos that and Gulf. in introducing and spreading the galleries and public culture of photography in the region spaces, the festival in the early era of the profession. features 600 photographs “Karima Abboud was a profes- by 122 photographers sional photographer,” Naamani said. from 25 countries. “She had a studio in Bethlehem and specialised in women’s portraits. “The aim of the festival is to show She had access to women whom the importance of photography that men were not able to [photograph]. documents history. It brings histori- She did also draw and colour the cal moments to a standstill. Photos black-and-white photos. It is like do- have a historical value and are still ing Photoshop today.” very important in the age of videos While not a professional photogra- and multimedia.” pher, Khazen produced work includ- Building on that experience, the ing portraits and photos of daily life, Beirut Image Festival seeks to be- mostly in northern Lebanon. come a replicable model that pro- Khazen’s photographs provide a motes photography in the Arab glimpse into the life of the affluent world as a means of communication, society in the early 20th century as dialogue archiving and artistic ex- well as scenes from the daily life of pression. ordinary people, their customs, cel- For its 2020 edition, Beirut Image ebrations and works. Festival will be organised under the With its large scope of photog- theme of “remembrance.” Naamani raphers and subjects, the festival said. links and presents diverse cultures “It will be about our memory through the chosen images, Naama- through photos,” he said. ni noted. “It is definitely a platform for photographers to interact, ex- Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly Ordinary day. “Fisherman of Ras Beirut” by Marwan Naamani. (Courtesy of Dar al Mussawir) change ideas and get to know each Travel and Society section editor. September 15, 2019 23 Culture Christian Heritage Makawir attracts Christian pilgrims, despite dark past

Roufan Nahhas whole area all the way to the Dead Sea. It was the stronghold of Herod the Great, whose son Herod Anti- Madaba pas inherited this amazing fortress where John the Baptist was impris- t took one dance, one wish and oned and executed.” one head on a platter to sur- “What happened at the palace in round Makawir, also known as Makawir is truly interesting and was I Machaerus, in Jordan with a dark described in the Bible as the event and macabre history. that led to the beheading of John the The hilltop palace, 66km south- Baptist who had publicly criticised west of Amman, is said to be the King Herod, labelling him a sinner place where John the Baptist was after marrying his brother’s wife,” imprisoned and beheaded after Sa- Naber said. lome’s enticing dance bewitched The story, as related in the Bible’s King Herod Antipas and led to what Gospel of Mark, goes that Salome’s is known as the Decollation of Saint dancing captured the senses of Her- Captivating history. The ruins of the Makawir fortress where John the Baptist was said to be imprisoned. John the Baptist. od Antipas, who promised her any- (Hasan Tamimi) Today, Makawir rises from its tor- thing she wanted — even half of his mented past as a popular tourist site, kingdom. a French Symbolist painter whose execution of John the Baptist. a king promising his stepdaughter with more than 2,200 visitors in the “Salome’s infamous dance has main emphasis was the illustration Dirar Hourani, a Jordanian expa- anything she wished for even half first quarter of 2019, the Jordanian inspired many painters and writ- of biblical and mythological figures,” triate, said he was attracted by the his kingdom simply because he liked Ministry of Tourism said. ers. Her wish to have John the Bap- Naber said. history of the place, which he often her dance.” “The location has a dark, though tist’s head on a platter, which was In addition to Madaba, Mount visits when he returns to Jordan. Salome, said to be 14 at the time, great, history,” said archaeological granted by Herod, was depicted Nebo, Anjara and Tell Mar Elias, is believed to have taken advice from and cultural activist Rana Naber. in many paintings and one of the Makawir is among Christian pilgrim- The hilltop palace, 66km her mother when she asked for John “It provides panoramic views of the most famous is by Gustave Moreau, age sites. south-west of Amman, is the Baptist’s head, Naber said. It takes about one hour to drive said to be the place where “After the death of Herod Antipas, his properties were taken by the Ro- from Madaba — the City of Mosaics John the Baptist was — to Makawir. The road is known as mans, who installed a contingent of the King’s Highway, a 5,000-year-old imprisoned and beheaded soldiers at Machaerus and, in 70AD, roadway first mentioned in the Bi- after Salome’s enticing the governor of Judaea, Lucilius Bas- ble as the route that Moses wished dance bewitched King Herod sus, led an assault against the castle to follow when he led the Israelites Antipas and led to what is and destroyed it,” she said. through the land of Edom. known as the Decollation of Naber said the story is only part of “The site overlooks the Dead Sea Saint John the Baptist. the experience of visiting Makawir. and tourists need to climb a winding “It is not only the story that is cap- staircase up to the mountain. Truly, “It has a very interesting history tivating. The whole experience of a very unique experience and worth and, as a Christian, I easily relate to climbing the stone staircase, which the effort,” Naber said. the place associated with the story leads down to the main trail, is really The fortified palace was built by of how John the Baptist was killed,” amazing. There is a hill to climb and Hasmonean King Alexander Jan- he said. “The remoteness of the for- a small path to walk through where naeus in 90BC on a plateau 800 me- tress and the winding road to reach visitors can witness a number of tres above the Dead Sea to defend it makes it look like a very exciting caves in one of which the beheading Peraea against the Nabataeans. adventure for all to experience. of John the Baptist took place ac- Locally, Makawir is referred to as “The story behind the Castle of cording to the story,” she said. Qala’at Al Meshneqa — the Castle of the Gallows is well-known and it is In 2000, Pope John Paul II said the Gallows — because of its asso- one of the reasons behind the at- mass at Makawir before a crowd of Tormented past. The winding road towards Makawir. (Hasan Tamimi) ciation with the imprisonment and traction of the place. Just imagine 20,000. A rare spiritual experience at Egypt’s oldest monastery

Marc Espanol grimage to the site equal to the one to century, thousands of Ethiopian ment when they are fraught due to the Holy Family, with a long-distance the holy city. Christians still flock to the monas- the latter’s building of the Grand trail crossing a large part of the coun- “This is the second place, after tery, especially during the time that Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. try. The Monastery of Al Muharraq, Asyut Jerusalem, where Jesus stayed the marks the arrival of the Holy Family “We are using [Al Muharraq] as a 400km south of Cairo, is the most most,” said Wahed Samir, 36, from in Egypt. soft power in order to establish good prominent site on the trail. n the western foothill of the nearby village of Sarakena, who relations with the Ethiopian people The holiest and oldest place in the Mount Qosqam, in the Egyp- has visited the place since he was a following the water crisis,” said Adel monastery is the Church of the Holy tian governorate of Asyut, child. “It is one of the most impor- Besides the Church of the Gendy, general manager for interna- Virgin Mary. The sanctuary contains Holy Virgin Mary and the O the Monastery of Al Muhar- tant churches in the world.” tional relations and strategic planning an altar believed to have been conse- raq stands as one of the oldest op- Ethiopian Christians, in particular, tower, the Jerusalem-styled at the Tourism Development Author- crated during the first century. Coptic erational monastic complexes in the have historically forged close links walls of the monastery ity. “We are trying to approach their tradition says it is located in the cen- world. Albeit unknown to many out- with the monastery of Al Muharraq, enclose another two churches people by this spiritual field, and we tre of Egypt as fulfilment of a prophe- side the Coptic Church, it is arguably and there are references that date built in the late-19th and invite and welcome them to come.” cy of the Book of Isaiah that reads: “in the most important Christian loca- back to the fourth century about the mid-20th centuries. He added that this would help “dilute that day there will be an altar to the tion in the country. presence of Ethiopian monks in the the tense political climate.” lord in the midst of the land of Egypt.” The Holy Family tradition states place. For this reason, Egypt regards the The Ministry of Tourism has also Next to the church stands a small that the complex was built on the Although their numbers decreased monastery as an important resource revived efforts to develop spots be- and ancient fortified tower said to be spot where Jesus, Mary and Joseph, starting from the first half of the 20th in relations with Ethiopia at a mo- lieved to have been travelled to by built in the sixth century through the along with their helper Salome, set- eighth century to grant the monks tled for six Coptic months and a few Spiritual protection in case of a raid or a siege. days during their flight into Egypt journey. A Its single entry, placed at the end of some 2,000 years ago. The story, man touches a wooden bridge, leads to a building briefly narrated in the Gospel of Mat- an icon that accommodates a water tank, thew, recounts the escape of the Holy tracing the multiple cells, burial rooms, a place Family from the persecution of the flight of the of worship and emergency caches, soldiers of Judea’s Herod, and the Holy Family although whether the place was used tradition regards Al Muharraq as the in Egypt on is unknown. place in Egypt where they unques- display at the Besides the Church of the Holy tionably stayed the longest. entrance of Virgin Mary and the tower, the Jeru- Arriving from the nearby village the Church salem-styled walls of the monastery of Mir, the Holy Family settled in an of the Holy enclose another two churches built area that is said to have been an arid, Virgin in the late-19th and mid-20th centu- bleak desert where only an aban- Mary in Al ries, the Abbot residence in an Italian doned house and an adjacent water Muharraq. style, a theological seminary and an well stood. It was also there that an (Marc Espanol) institute for cantors. angel would appear to Joseph and “To come and visit Al Muharraq tell him to “go [back] to the land of is a very good experience, [because] Israel.” you get to know the monastic life The church that was built in the and the history of the place,” said house where the Holy Family pur- Magdy Shehata, an English teacher portedly stayed and which is named from Sarakena. “It is [also] a good after Mary is believed to be the first opportunity to learn about the Coptic one in Upper Egypt. Due to its promi- church, since there is a school where nence, Copts regard it as the second they teach both Coptic language and Jerusalem and even consider the pil- life.” 24 September 15, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

A view of the St Vartan’s Armenian Cathedral. (Living Lebanon) A view of the Armenian genocide memorial. (Living Lebanon) Bourj Hammoud, the little Agenda Tangier: Through September 22

The 20th Tangier’s Jazz Festival Armenia in the heart of Beirut features international and local jazz artists. Visitors can enjoy free street performances, free Samar Kadi dance courses and jazz con- certs during the 8-day event. This year’s festival lineup Beirut includes Buika, Anne Sila and Nico Morelli. alking through the mod- est alleyways of Bourj Dubai: Hammoud takes visi- September 20-21 W tors to a small replica of Armenia in the heart of Beirut. The “Harry Potter and the Prisoner language, the names of streets and of Azkaban” will be shown the smells of spices and street food at the Dubai Opera. The film that emanate from bakeries and res- will be projected onto a large, taurants are all reminiscent of their high-definition screen while country of origin, which Armenians the Armenian State Orchestra were forced to leave fleeing genocide brings producer John Williams’ by the Ottomans. Oscar-nominated score to life. “Armenians arrived in Lebanon in 1917. They walked from Turkey Amman: to Syria and Lebanon and settled September 26-October 5 in refugee camps in the outskirts of Beirut. The area has since developed The Amman International Book into a neighbourhood Bourj Ham- Fair welcomes more than 500 moud and has become an Armenian printing houses from various hub in the city,” explained Yerevant countries. The 19th edition of Shallagian, founder of the “Bourj the fair will take place at You- Hammoud — Walking Tour with nis Islam Street. Street Food.” Shallagian was born and raised People look at spices on display at a shop in Bourj Hammoud. (Living Lebanon) Beirut: in Bourj Hammoud. His love for his October 2-10 neighbourhood and his passion for the Armenian culture inspired him offer visitors an insight into Arme- reputation as Lebanon’s jewellers. genocide by marching from Bourj Beirut will celebrate cinema to work on this project to promote nian culture and traditions that “When they arrived here, our an- Hammoud to the Armenian patri- with the 19th edition of the his culture and background. Lebanon’s Armenian community of cestors learned new skills and made archate in Antelias, north of Beirut. Beirut International Film Fes- “Since I work in Living Lebanon some 50,000 have maintained and a living by working in gold. They “The 2-hour march is meant to mark tival. The festival will include (a platform on travel and tourism preserved for more than a century. also worked with leather, making how our ancestors walked from Tur- competitions in Long Features, in Lebanon), I have a lot of foreign shoes and bags and the women did key to Lebanon fleeing the geno- Short Films and Documentaries cide,” Shallagian explained. in addition to Lebanon pre- friends coming here who wanted to Food tasting is featured in embroidery, anything to bring food know about Bourj Hammoud. I was to the table,” Shallagian said. Food tasting is also featured in mieres of films. taking them around and offering authentic bakeries and The tour includes churches and authentic bakeries and restaurants, them Armenian dishes and one Ger- restaurants, such as the workshops famous for produc- such as the Tahinov Hatz, a sweet Tunis: man friend told me I should do that Tahinov Hatz, a sweet ing shoes, bags and ready-to-wear pastry offered for breakfast; lahma- October 4-13 as an official tour. So I said why not?” pastry offered for breakfast clothes. joon, the Armenian meat pie; and Shallagian said. and lahmajoon, the “We can make any bag design,” the famous Armenian sausage sujuk. Dream City, a biennial mul- “I never studied to be a tour guide. Armenian meat pie. boasted Coco as he put the finishing With a population of 15,000 Ar- tidisciplinary celebration of I am a local guy who likes to share touches on a silver, beaded clutch at menians, Bourj Hammoud is viewed contemporary art, takes place what he loves about his city. I did as The tour begins at the main Rue his small workshop along a narrow as a little Armenia in the heart of the in public spaces in the Medina much as I can to share knowledge d’Armenie (Armenia Street), which is pedestrian alley. “We also design Lebanese capital. While first-gener- of Tunis. The event includes that I know and care about.” lined with jewellry and gold shops. and produce bags for a local brand ation Armenians could hardly speak movie projections, theatre per- Roaming the streets of Bourj Ham- Armenians are famous for their ‘la Rose de Sym,’ all handmade.” any Arabic, young Armenians learn formances, music concerts and moud and interacting with residents craftsmanship and have established a St Vartan’s Armenian Cathedral is Arabic at school in addition to Arme- art exhibitions. Artists from the biggest of some ten churches in nian, French and English. Africa, the Middle East and Bourj Hammoud. It was named af- Gary Walsh, an Australian partici- Europe will participate. ter an Armenian leader who fought pant, commented on the tour: “I did against the Persians in the fifth cen- not know what to expect but I really Essaouira: tury. “Thanks to him we remained came away with lots of appreciation October 11-13 Christians; otherwise we would and knowledge of what it means to have been forced to convert to Is- be Armenian in Lebanon.” The third MOGA Festival of lam. The architecture of the church, “I do feel it is something I would electronic music and culture which was renovated in 2006, is not have found for myself. It gave will take place in Essaouira, very similar to churches in Arme- me a real taste of Armenian culture,” Morocco. Performances, edu- nia,” Shallagian said. he said. cational workshops, beach par- Some of the narrow streets where “Bourj Hammoud — Walking Tour ties, digital video installations flags of the Armenian revolutionary with Street Food” takes place every are scheduled. party, Tashnak, hang next to Arme- Tuesday. It began in June and Shal- nian and Lebanese flags, have been lagian said he hopes it will gain pop- We welcome submissions of renovated with donations from ularity soon. calendar items related to wealthy Armenians and foreign gov- He said that, in addition to intro- cultural events of interest to ernments. ducing Armenian culture, “the tour travellers in the Middle East A memorial to the Armenian gen- aims to change the perspective of and North Africa. ocide, a small replica of a memorial Bourj Hammoud, which is regarded stone in Yerevan, Armenia, stands in as a low-income suburb, while it is Please send tips to: the heart of Bourj Hammoud. Each actually a place where Armenians [email protected] Spices on display at a shop in Bourj Hammoud. (Living Lebanon) April, Armenians commemorate the have built a civilisation.”