18 March 2020

Global Markets Daily

Dead Cat Bounce?

More Countries on Lockdown; US Markets Meltdown Analysts AXJs appeared to show some signs of recovering, taking the lead from Saktiandi Supaat regional equities. KOSPI has reversed its earlier losses while ASX rose (65) 6320 1379 more than 4%. It remains unclear if this is a or will there [email protected] be more gains. This is in contrast to the 12% plunge in US equities Christopher Wong overnight – the biggest 1 day fall since Black Monday crash in Oct 1987. (65) 6320 1347 North-eastern parts of US have gone into partial lockdown. Switzerland [email protected] has shut down schools, introduced border checks and closed all bars and restaurants. Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland and Fiona Lim Lithuania have also tightened border controls. The EU is proposing ban on (65) 6320 1374 nonessential inbound travellers from abroad for 30 days while the UK has [email protected]

Macro | FX Research &Strategy MacroResearch FX | now been put in lockdown (a U-turn from his controversial ‘herd immunity’ approach). Closer to home, Malaysia will also implement full Tan Yanxi lockdown from 18 – 31 Mar. Country lockdowns will have negative (65) 6320 1378 repercussion on business activity, travel and growth. This form of measure [email protected]

though needed to contain COVID-19 contagion will no doubt inflict

economic pain in the near term. COVID-19 contagion is not sparing G7: Events & Market Closure financial markets as well as the Fed had to conduct a second overnight Date Ctry Event Global repo of additional $500bn in support to overnight lending markets. BoJ Emergency BoJ Doubled ETF Buying Limits; BoK Emergency Cut 50Bps Yest 16 Mar JP Meeting BoJ maintained interest rates but ramped up asset purchases in their policy meeting yesterday (which was brought forward from Thursday). It 19 Mar SZ SNB Meeting doubled the pace of annual ETF purchases from JPY6tn to JPY12tn, and also introduced a new lending program to facilitate corporate financing to 18 Mar -- OPEC firms hit by COVID-19. Purchases of commercial papers and corporate bonds will also be increased by JPY2tn. BoK cut rate by 50bps yesterday, following Fed’s move. BoK said concerns over global economic slowdown AXJ: Events & Market Closure have deepened since the last meeting. BoK added that it will lower rates applied to its loan facility for smaller companies and add bonds issued by Date Ctry Event banks to its OMO to enhance liquidity. 19 Mar TW CBC Meeting US Retail Sales; ZEW Survey Data on Tap Today Key data of interest today include US retail sales; EU ZEW survey 19 Mar ID BI Meeting expectations; UK labor report. 19 Mar PH BSP Meeting FX: Overnight Closing Prices Prev Prev 20 Mar CH 1y & 5y LPR Majors % Chg Asian FX % Chg Close Close EUR/USD 1.1183 0.68 USD/SGD 1.4209 0.42 GBP/USD 1.2271 -0.06 EUR/SGD 1.589 1.09 AUD/USD 0.6117 -1.39 JPY/SGD 1.3418 2.44 NZD/USD 0.6045 -0.15 GBP/SGD 1.7434 0.37 USD/JPY 105.83 -1.66 AUD/SGD 0.8694 -0.96 EUR/JPY 118.47 -0.83 NZD/SGD 0.859 -0.53 USD/CHF 0.947 -0.49 CHF/SGD 1.5004 0.91 USD/CAD 1.4016 1.52 CAD/SGD 1.0137 -1.09 USD/MYR 4.3075 0.70 SGD/MYR 3.0313 -0.41 USD/THB 32.135 1.35 SGD/IDR 10516.41 0.32 USD/IDR 14933 1.05 SGD/PHP 36.4289 0.30 USD/PHP 51.75 1.20 SGD/CNY 4.931 -0.62 Implied USD/SGD Estimates at 8.30am Upper Band Limit Mid-Point Lower Band Limit 1.3748 1.4029 1.4309

SEE PAGE 15 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FX Research & Strategy

COVID-19 Monitor

We monitor South Korea, Japan, Italy, France, Germany and Iran more closely as they are the regions with leading number of infections in their respective continents. New cases in South Korea seem to have peaked but the virus spread continues to rise substantially in parts of Europe and Iran. Our Sources: World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins CSSE and updated as of 15 Mar

Case Fatality Rate is calculated by taking the number of deaths (on day X) divided by the number of confirmed cases (on day X-T) where T is the average time period from case confirmation to death.

Chart 1: Daily New Infections in Worst Hit Regions Chart 2: Recoveries, Deaths, Case Fatality Rates

Hubei Korea Italy France Germany Iran 7000 Deaths Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) RHS 6000 80000 30 70000 5000 25 60000 4000 20 50000 3000 40000 15 2000 30000 10 1000 20000 5 0 10000 18-Feb 25-Feb 3-Mar 10-Mar 0 0

3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 24-Feb 2-Mar 9-Mar Chart 3: New Cases in China vs. Outside of China Chart 4: Daily New Infections in Asia Pacific

Daily New Infections Taiwan HK SAR Japan Singapore

China (LHS) Outside of China Australia Vietnam Philippines Korea (rhs) 12000 200 1000 10000 800 8000 150

6000 600 100 4000 400 50 2000 200 0 0 0 18-Feb 25-Feb 3-Mar 10-Mar 21-Jan 4-Feb 18-Feb 3-Mar

Chart 5: Daily New Infections in Europe Chart 6: Cases in US Will Surge as Diagnostic Capacity Catches Up

Italy France Germany Spain UK Switzerland Rest of Europe Cumulative Confirmed Cases

10000 1800 9000 1600 8000 1400 7000 1200 6000 1000 5000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 0 20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 24-Feb 2-Mar 9-Mar 0 -100018-Feb 25-Feb 3-Mar 10-Mar

18 March 2020 2

FX Research & Strategy

G7 Currencies

DXY Index – Still Choppy. Sentiment remains weak despite global central banks’ easing efforts to ensure there is sufficient liquidity in the system. US equities plunged 12% overnight – the biggest 1 day fall since Black Monday crash in Oct 1987. The north-eastern parts of US have gone into partial lockdown. Switzerland has shut down schools, introduced border checks and closed all bars and restaurants. Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland and Lithuania have also tightened border controls. The EU is proposing ban on nonessential inbound travellers from abroad for 30 days while the UK has now been put in lockdown (a U-turn from his controversial ‘herd immunity’ approach). Closer to home, Malaysia will also implement full lockdown from 18 – 31 Mar. Country lockdowns will have negative repercussion on business activity, travel and growth. This form of measure though needed to contain COVID-19 contagion will no doubt inflict economic pain in the near term. COVID-19 contagion is not sparing financial markets as well as the Fed had to conduct a second overnight repo of additional $500bn in support to overnight lending markets. We do not rule out request for help from travel-related industries such as US airlines requesting for help from US government given curbed travel worldwide. USD jumped against most AXJs this morning but has since reversed, taking the lead from the bounce in regional equities. DXY was last seen at 98.2 levels. Daily is mild bullish while RSI suggests waning traction. We do not rule out consolidative price action from here. Support at 97.26 (50% fibo retracement of 2020 high to low), 96.64 (38.2% fibo) and 95.90 (23.6% fibo). Resistance at 98.70 (76.4% fibo). We reiterate when the risk-off is US-centric, USD is a sell; but when the risk-off becomes global, USD is a buy. Week ahead brings Retail sales, capacity utilisation (Feb) on Tue; Housing starts, Building permits (Feb) on Wed; Philly Fed Business outlook (Mar); Current account (4Q) on Thu; Existing home sales (Feb) on Fri.

EURUSD – Downside Risks. EUR was last seen at 1.1165 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI is falling. Further downside risks not ruled out. Support at 1.11 levels (200 DMA), 1.1050 levels (21, 50, 100 DMAs). Resistance at 1.12, 1.14 and 1.1460 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2018 high to 2020 low). COVID-19 outbreak spreading in Europe across Italy, Spain, France remains a concern. Further lockdowns could dent sentiment and weigh on EUR. At this point, EU governments have to be quick to implement fiscal measures, which could be forthcoming. Week ahead brings Construction output (Jan); ZEW Survey (Mar); labor cost (4Q) on Tue; Trade (Jan); CPI (Feb) on Wed; Current account (Jan); German PPI (Feb) on Fri.

USDJPY – BoJ Doubles ETF Purchasing Limits. Downward bias we cautioned for in pair yesterday played out. Pair showed signs of rebounding yesterday morning towards 107.50, but soon reversed course. Low of 105.15 was reached yesterday night. We note that pair is fairly volatile this morning; last seen at 106.40. As expected, BoJ maintained interest rates but ramped up asset

18 March 2020 3

FX Research & Strategy

purchases in their policy meeting which was brought forward from Thursday. It doubled the pace of annual ETF purchases from JPY6tn to JPY12tn, and also introduced a new lending program to facilitate corporate financing to firms hit by Covid. Purchases of commercial papers and corporate bonds will also be increased by JPY2tn. Elsewhere, Trump’s warning that things are “bad” and that the US may be fighting the outbreak until August or later visibly dampened market sentiments. Bearish momentum on daily chart has largely faded, while stochastics are on the climb. Support at 105.40 (38.2% fibo retracement from Feb high to recent low), 103.80 (23.6% fibo), 101.20. Resistance at 108 (61.8% fibo), 109.60 (76.4% fibo).

AUDUSD – Bears Still Dominate. AUDUSD waffled around 0.61- figure, weighed by the broadly supported USD as risk continues to take a hit. Trump’s comments continue to swing the markets and the risks of his words have been asymmetric recently with market players more sensitive to grim messages than optimistic ones as his credibility starts to crumble. He warned that the COVID-19 outbreak could last beyond Aug and drive the economy into a recession. Taking into account Dr. Anthony Fauci (Director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease) comments that test access should be “infinitely better” than few weeks ago as well as Vice Pence’s assurance that the US is “moving to widespread testing”, everyone expects a surge in confirmed cases in the US. Worldometer reported 4657 confirmed cases as of last check this morning, almost tripled the 1678 cases reported to WHO for 15th Mar. For Australia, cases have also jumped from 249 (reported to WHO on 15th Mar) to 401 (last seen on Worldometer which gives the most current update). Eyes on RBA’s announcement on Thu as we brace for the central bank to possibly start asset purchase. The central bank had assured it stands ready to purchase government bonds. Last week, RBA Governor Debelle commented that purchasing governments could be a way to keep short-term financing rates low for businesses. The central bank also released the minutes which contains more underpinnings for the rate cut provided at the start of the month including the observation that the spread of the virus raised prospect of extended global economic disruption and the rate cut gives extra support to jobs, economy. An announcement to start asset purchase comes in the backdrop of coordinated global efforts by central banks to keep the financial markets functioning. Separately, home prices for 4Q rose 3.9%q/q vs. estimated 4.5%. Finance Minister Cormann spoke to Sky News this morning and assured that stimulus would be scaled up as he expects businesses to close, jobs lost and that he had been advised that schools should stay open. Challenges to the aviation sector are being “carefully considered”. Back on the AUDUSD chart, the pair is last seen around 0.6110. Next support is seen at 0.6009-level (2008 low). Stochastics look stretched even though downside bias remains. We do not rule out more choppy price action. 0.6245 is a resistance level (23.6% fibo retracement of the Mar decline), before the next at 0.6330.

18 March 2020 4

FX Research & Strategy

USDCAD – Buoyed. USDCAD hovered around 1.40, still elevated on strong risk-off sentiment, soggy oil prices and broad USD demand. The BoC targets weekly purchase of up to C$500mn in mortgage bonds, to conduct mortgage bond tenders twice a week and the first to start today. The government will offer C$5K loans to citizens stranded abroad due to the virus. PM Trudeau had announced the closure of borders to all non-citizens, urged Canadians to avoid non-essential travel abroad and restrict international flights to be received at only 4 airports. Back on the USDCAD chart, next resistance at 1.4100. Support around 1.3765 before 1.3610 (Fibonacci retracements of the Jan-Mar rally). Existing home sales for Feb came in stronger than expected at 5.9%m/m vs. previous -2.9%. Week manufacturing sales for Jan Tue, Feb CPI on Wed, retail sales on Fri.

18 March 2020 5

FX Research & Strategy

Asia ex Japan Currencies

SGD trades around -1.38% from the implied mid-point of 1.4029 with the top estimated at 1.3748 and the floor at 1.4309.

USDSGD – Upsides Capped. USDSGD continued to trade bid yesterday. Last seen at 1.4220. As cautioned, Fed cut did not lead to in Asian FX markets, as worries of a protracted negative shock to global growth and demand from Covid overwhelmed. With SGD NEER at -1.4% below implied policy mid as of writing, current levels likely price in a flattening of the policy slope in the upcoming meeting. MAS may have to re-centre the policy mid-point downwards for the SGD to see significant declines. House economists attribute a 60% chance of flattening in slope and 40% chance of re-centering downwards. In any case, SGD (on trade-weighted basket basis) may be a tad more resilient in the interim. Any up-moves in USDSGD then, would likely be due to concerns over USD liquidity exacerbating. NODX for Feb came in at 3.0%y/y, but this is likely distorted by Lunar New Year effects. For Jan- Feb together, outcomes was flat. March figures may be poor on Covid impact. Momentum on daily chart has turned modestly positive, and stochastics are in near-overbought territory. Resistance at 1.4280, 1.4350. Support for USDSGD at 1.4120, 1.4000, 1.3930 (23.6% fibo retracement from Jan low to Feb high).

AUDSGD – Downside bIas. AUDSGD was last seen around 0.8690 as AUD weakness dominates price action. Downside bias to continue as RBA is set to announce more measures on Thu which could include government bond purchase. Support at 0.8660 before 0.8412, 2001 low (a record low). Momentum is still bearish. Resistance at 0.8790.

SGDMYR – Bearish Divergence. SGDMYR was last seen at 3.0670 levels. Bullish momentum is fading while RSI is easing. A bearish divergence on MACD, RSI is forming. Support at 3.0250, 3.0120 levels. Immediate resistance at 3.0350 (100, 200 DMAs), 3.02 levels.

USDMYR – Upside Risk. USDMYR remains bid in the open this morning, alongside other USD/AXJs higher on broad risk-off sentiment. Pair was last seen at 4.3085 levels. Bullish momentum intact while RSI is rising into overbought conditions. Immediate resistance at 4.30, 4.35 levels. Support at 4.2450.

USDCNH – Consolidative. USDCNH remained in consolidation, last seen around 7.0060, remarkably resilient relative to regional peers. Resistance at 7.0610 at this point and if USD fails to gain steam, we can anticipate moves to remain contained within the 6.96-7.06 range. We are still wary of risk of complacency as companies still struggle to get back into operation. As more people get back to work and schools re-open, China is also vulnerable to imported cases of infection like the rest of us in the world as well as the risk of community transmission. USDCNH is also not immune to the broad USD demand as credit conditions worsen in the world and global recession would affect China’s trade performance. USDCNY is fixed at 7.0094 today, near consensus. At home, new home prices rose a tad by 0.02%m/m for Feb. Retail sales shrunk -20.5%y/y for Jan-Feb. Property investment was down -16.3%y/y for the period as well. Industrial production fell -13.5%y/y and fixed asset ex rural was down -24.5%y/y. 18 March 2020 6

FX Research & Strategy

Although the numbers were invariably worse than consensus, poor numbers are widely expected due to the lockdown of cities at home. The gradual recovery in production levels are still taken positively by investors as China’s aggressive and decisive measures paid off in contrast to the most of Western world that are still battling with the spread of the virus and the reality of shutdowns and border controls. Eyes are on LPR announcement due on 20th Mar.

1m USDIDR NDF – Elevated in Interim. NDF broke past 15200 at one point yesterday and has remained around this level. Last seen at 15,207 this morning. As cautioned, Fed rate cut to near 0% did not benefit IDR much. Portfolio outflows are still weighing on IDR, with around US$3bn of net bond outflows MTD (as of 13 March). Indonesia’s dependence on USD (~30% of total debt denominated in USD) has led it to be more sensitive to bouts of global risk aversion arising in DM markets as well. We also note that daily Covid case counts are starting to see stronger increases—last seen at 134 (+17). Pace of contagion could rise and induce concerns over lockdowns/border closures, similar to what neighbours Malaysia and Philippines have done, which could weigh on sentiments further. Momentum on daily chart is bullish, while stochastics are also on the climb. Support at 15000, 14,590, then 14,240. Resistance at 15300, 15600.

USDTHB – Supported. Pair continued to climb yesterday, alongside most USD-AxJ pairs. Last seen at 32.15 this morning. BoT has no plans for an emergency meeting, but is likely to make further rate cuts (at least 25bps) at its next meeting on 25 Mar. Consumer confidence is at an almost 21-year low in Feb. The somber regional mood could lead AxJ FX in general to remain soft in interim, i.e., for USDTHB to be supported. Bearish momentum on daily chart has largely dissipated, while stochastics are showing signs of inching higher. Support at 31.50, 31.00, 30.71 (200 DMA). Resistance at 32.40.

1M USDPHP NDF – Spot FX and Bond Trading Suspended. NDF largely traded higher yesterday. Last seen at 51.95. Dampened sentiments in PHP mirrored those in other AxJ FX and was partly due to the widening in Covid-led domestic lockdown to restrict movements of almost 60mn people. Going forward, trading of FX spot and bonds will be suspended until further notice, and liquidity in NDF markets may be poor.

18 March 2020 7

FX Research & Strategy

Malaysia Fixed Income

Rates Indicators Analysts

Change MGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close (bps) 3YR MH 3/23 2.81 2.80 -1 Winson Phoon 5YR MI 6/24 2.87 2.92 +5 (65) 6812 8807 7YR MK 5/27 3.13 3.10 -3 [email protected] 10YR MO 8/29 3.14 3.09 -5 15YR MS 7/34 3.35 3.40 +5 20YR MY 5/40 3.45 3.52 +7 Se Tho Mun Yi 30YR MZ 7/48 3.89 3.92 +3 (603) 2074 7606 IRS [email protected] 6-months 2.71 2.68 -3 9-months 2.66 2.64 -2 1-year 2.61 2.55 -6 3-year 2.63 2.50 -13 5-year 2.70 2.54 -16 7-year 2.80 2.60 -20 10-year 2.98 2.83 -15 Source: Maybank KE *Indicative levels Global: Export Growth (% YoY,

Government bonds traded mixed with better buying in selected bonds at the front end and belly sectors. Among MGS benchmarks, the 3y, 7y and 10y yields were the only ones that fell 1-5bps, while the rest were up by 3-7bps higher. Liquidity remained thin. GII also saw mixed trading with yields lower at front end and belly and higher at the ultra-long end. 15y GII benchmark was the worst performer as its yields rose 20bps from previous close, though was small at MYR19m, and is now almost flat to 20y GII. Volatilities likely to stay.

Onshore IRS rates saw two-way quotes but were extremely wide as the second emergency rate cut (larger at 1%) by the US Fed caught markets by surprise. The curve bull-flattened, falling 2-20bps lower. 3M KLIBOR edged down by 1bp to 2.78%.

PDS had mixed performance. GGs showed some resilience as the belly of the curve rose just 2-3bps higher in yield and saw Prasarana and Danainfra dealt. In AAA, Aman 2027 traded unchanged while GENM 2022 traded 4bps higher in yield. AA credits traded mixed with Imtiaz II 2020 unchanged, UMWH 2026 and Tanjung BP 2020 1bp higher in yields. Elsewise, PDS space was subdued with little trading interest amid the weak govvies.

18 March 2020 8

FX Research & Strategy

Singapore Fixed Income

Rates Indicators

Change SGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close (bps) 2YR 0.89 0.80 -9 5YR 1.08 1.00 -8 10YR 1.48 1.36 -12 15YR 1.61 1.50 -11 20YR 1.67 1.58 -9 30YR 1.67 1.57 -10 Source: MAS

SGD IRS closed 3-6bps lower in a flattening move. SGS started with a strong wave of buying in the 2y sector. But distress from last week's risk parity reduction persisted and sellers on long dated bonds emerged, driving the SGS curve higher and steeper. Towards market close, some paying flows in 10y SGS led to a recovery with SGS yields closing 8-12bps lower.

Despite the Fed’s second emergency rate cut which brought FFR to near zero, the selloff continued in equities and Asian credit amid growing pessimism on the economic outlook. Liquidity in Asian credit market remained a drag and spreads widened 5-15bps across IG names. We reckon there was not much volume traded, but dealers were defensive in bidding. Market still keen to sell on any retracement or UST rally, highlighting risk-off sentiment.

18 March 2020 9

FX Research & Strategy

Indonesia Fixed Income

Rates Indicators Analysts Change IDR Gov’t Bonds Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Myrdal Gunarto (bp) (62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695 5.20 5.12 (0.08) 1YR [email protected] 3YR 5.92 6.02 0.09 5YR 6.74 6.73 (0.01) 10YR 7.34 7.40 0.06 15YR 7.73 7.74 0.01 20YR 7.88 7.97 0.09 30YR 7.98 7.79 (0.19) * Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Indonesia Global: Export Growth (% YoY,signif

Indonesian bond market was still under pressures until yesterday. Recent announcement of huge surplus in Indonesian trade balance during Feb-20 didn’t give substantial impacts to shore up local bond market. A selling trend continued in the local financial markets due to side effects of coronavirus outbreak. Nevertheless, some investors have begun collecting several short tenors of government bonds after seeing a wide between Indonesian investment assets against investment assets from other countries. A widening gap occurred after the latest Fed’s decision to cut its policy rate by 100bps on the latest emergency meeting on last Sunday. Moreover, Bank Indonesia always stayed in the market as a stabilization measure. Today, the government is scheduled to hold a conventional bond auction by Rp15 trillion-Rp22.5 trillion of indicative targets. Investors are expected to keep asking higher yields (compared the latest government’s conventional bond auction) amidst recent lower on the global policy rates, as the compensation of unfavourable economic condition. Foreign investors are expected to comeback for doing a carry trade action.

18 March 2020 10

FX Research & Strategy

Foreign Exchange: Daily Levels EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CNH NZD/USD EUR/JPY AUD/JPY

R2 1.1345 108.60 0.6396 1.2522 7.0618 0.6254 122.2567 68.7350 R1 1.1264 107.22 0.6256 1.2397 7.0372 0.6149 120.3633 66.7510 Current 1.1169 106.30 0.6111 1.2255 7.0171 0.6050 118.7200 64.9450 S1 1.1075 104.80 0.6028 1.2174 6.9865 0.5942 116.8633 63.4200 S2 1.0967 103.76 0.5940 1.2076 6.9604 0.5840 115.2567 62.0730

USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/IDR USD/PHP USD/THB EUR/SGD CNY/MYR SGD/MYR

R2 1.4341 4.3188 15132 52.3427 32.5530 1.6187 0.6275 3.0423 R1 1.4275 4.3131 15032 52.0463 32.3440 1.6038 0.6217 3.0368 Current 1.4226 4.3160 14950 51.7500 32.2480 1.5889 0.6163 3.0345 S1 1.4098 4.2964 14769 51.1573 31.7940 1.5674 0.6068 3.0257 S2 1.3987 4.2854 14606 50.5647 31.4530 1.5459 0.5976 3.0201 *Values calculated based on pivots, a formula that projects support/resistance for the day. Policy Rates Upcoming CB Equity Indices and Key Commodities Rates Current (%) MBB Expectation Meeting Value % C hange MAS SGD 3-Month 1.0813 Apr-20 Easing Bias SIBOR Dow 20,188.52 -12.93 BNM O/N Policy Rate 2.50 5/5/2020 Easing Bias N asdaq 6,904.59 -12.32 BI 7-Day Reverse Repo 4.75 3/19/2020 Easing Rate N ikkei 225 17,002.04 -2.46

BOT 1-Day Repo 1.00 3/25/2020 Neutral FTSE 5,151.08 -4.01

BSP O/N Reverse Repo 3.75 3/19/2020 Easing Australia ASX 200 5,002.02 -9.70 Singapore Straits CBC Discount Rate 1.38 3/19/2020 Neutral 2,495.77 -5.25 T imes Kuala Lumpur HKMA Base Rate 0.91 - Neutral 1,280.63 -4.77 C o mpo site PBOC 1Y Lending Rate 4.35 - Easing Jakarta Composite 4,690.66 -4.42 Philippines 5,793.94 1.01 RBI Repo Rate 5.15 4/3/2020 Easing C o mpo site

BOK Base Rate 0.75 4/9/2020 Easing T aiwan T A IEX 9,717.77 -4.06

Korea KOSPI 1,714.86 -3.19 Fed Funds Target Rate 0.25 4/30/2020 Easing ECB Deposit Facility Shanghai Comp Index 2,789.25 -3.40 -0.50 4/30/2020 Easing Bias Rate Hong Kong Hang 23,063.57 -4.03 BOE Official Bank Rate 0.25 3/26/2020 Neutral Seng India Sensex 31,390.07 -7.96 RBA Cash Rate Target 0.50 4/7/2020 Easing Bias N ymex C rude Oil WT I 28.70 -9.55 RBNZ Official Cash Rate 0.25 5/13/2020 Easing Bias C o mex Go ld 1,486.50 -1.99 BOJ Rate -0.10 4/28/2020 Easing Reuters CRB Index 132.71 -5.77

BoC O/N Rate 0.75 4/15/2020 Neutral M B B KL 7.29 -7.49

18 March 2020 11

FX Research & Strategy

MYR Bonds Trades Details Maturity Volume MGS & GII Coupon Last Done Day High Day Low Date (RM ‘m) MGS 6/2012 3.492% 31.03.2020 3.492% 31-Mar-20 56 2.577 2.577 2.407 MGS 6/2013 3.889% 31.07.2020 3.889% 31-Jul-20 1 2.548 2.548 2.548 MGS 3/2015 3.659% 15.10.2020 3.659% 15-Oct-20 523 2.58 2.61 2.531 MGS 5/2017 3.441% 15.02.2021 3.441% 15-Feb-21 15 2.646 2.646 2.646 MGS 1/2011 4.16% 15.07.2021 4.160% 15-Jul-21 25 2.599 2.693 2.599 MGS 3/2014 4.048% 30.09.2021 4.048% 30-Sep-21 121 2.634 2.648 2.617 MGS 4/2016 3.620% 30.11.2021 3.620% 30-Nov-21 194 2.619 2.685 2.619 MGS 1/2017 3.882% 10.03.2022 3.882% 10-Mar-22 678 2.758 2.758 2.477 MGS 1/2012 3.418% 15.08.2022 3.418% 15-Aug-22 17 2.8 2.8 2.73 MGS 2/2015 3.795% 30.09.2022 3.795% 30-Sep-22 43 2.828 2.828 2.686 MGS 3/2013 3.480% 15.03.2023 3.480% 15-Mar-23 882 2.848 2.88 2.709 MGS 2/2018 3.757% 20.04.2023 3.757% 20-Apr-23 200 2.778 2.989 2.737 MGS 1/2016 3.800% 17.08.2023 3.800% 17-Aug-23 150 2.78 2.992 2.78 MGS 3/2019 3.478% 14.06.2024 3.478% 14-Jun-24 64 2.855 2.922 2.835 MGS 1/2014 4.181% 15.07.2024 4.181% 15-Jul-24 233 3.013 3.062 2.85 MGS 2/2017 4.059% 30.09.2024 4.059% 30-Sep-24 204 2.898 3.03 2.85 MGS 1/2018 3.882% 14.03.2025 3.882% 14-Mar-25 4 2.94 3.002 2.94 MGS 1/2015 3.955% 15.09.2025 3.955% 15-Sep-25 827 2.933 3.024 2.818 MGS 1/2019 3.906% 15.07.2026 3.906% 15-Jul-26 25 3.074 3.219 3.074 MGS 2/2006 4.709% 15.09.2026 4.709% 15-Sep-26 20 3.09 3.09 3.073 MGS 3/2016 3.900% 30.11.2026 3.900% 30-Nov-26 200 3.069 3.193 3.005 MGS 3/2007 3.502% 31.05.2027 3.502% 31-May-27 100 3.096 3.096 3.05 MGS 4/2017 3.899% 16.11.2027 3.899% 16-Nov-27 104 3.173 3.282 3.108 MGS 5/2013 3.733% 15.06.2028 3.733% 15-Jun-28 48 3.089 3.281 3.069 MGS 2/2019 3.885% 15.08.2029 3.885% 15-Aug-29 104 3.12 3.227 3.019 MGS 3/2010 4.498% 15.04.2030 4.498% 15-Apr-30 67 3.255 3.355 3.255 MGS 4/2012 4.127% 15.04.2032 4.127% 15-Apr-32 31 3.405 3.454 3.405 MGS 4/2013 3.844% 15.04.2033 3.844% 15-Apr-33 17 3.461 3.461 3.461 MGS 3/2018 4.642% 07.11.2033 4.642% 07-Nov-33 91 3.354 3.474 3.35 MGS 4/2019 3.828% 05.07.2034 3.828% 05-Jul-34 203 3.41 3.484 3.298 MGS 4/2015 4.254% 31.05.2035 4.254% 31-May-35 12 3.498 3.528 3.494 MGS 3/2017 4.762% 07.04.2037 4.762% 07-Apr-37 4 3.543 3.597 3.543 MGS 4/2018 4.893% 08.06.2038 4.893% 08-Jun-38 3 3.417 3.417 3.417 MGS 5/2019 3.757% 22.05.2040 3.757% 22-May-40 20 3.52 3.52 3.52 MGS 7/2013 4.935% 30.09.2043 4.935% 30-Sep-43 30 3.798 3.9 3.798 GII MURABAHAH 4/2016 3.226% 15.04.2020 3.226% 15-Apr-20 40 2.616 2.616 2.616 PROFIT-BASED GII 7/2012 15.05.2020 3.576% 15-May-20 40 2.568 2.568 2.568 GII MURABAHAH 6/2013 23.03.2021 3.716% 23-Mar-21 120 2.699 2.699 2.589 GII MURABAHAH 2/2016 3.743% 26.08.2021 3.743% 26-Aug-21 1 2.628 2.628 2.628 GII MURABAHAH 4/2018 3.729% 31.03.2022 3.729% 31-Mar-22 61 2.712 2.81 2.712 GII MURABAHAH 3/2017 3.948% 14.04.2022 3.948% 14-Apr-22 7 2.775 2.775 2.775 GII MURABAHAH 7/2019 3.151% 15.05.2023 3.151% 15-May-23 111 2.797 2.797 2.768 GII MURABAHAH 1/2016 4.390% 07.07.2023 4.390% 07-Jul-23 30 2.841 2.841 2.841 GII MURABAHAH 3/2018 4.094% 30.11.2023 4.094% 30-Nov-23 150 2.829 3.132 2.812 GII MURABAHAH 8/2013 22.05.2024 4.444% 22-May-24 15 2.945 2.945 2.945 GII MURABAHAH 2/2017 4.045% 15.08.2024 4.045% 15-Aug-24 15 2.961 2.961 2.961

18 March 2020 12

FX Research & Strategy

GII MURABAHAH 4/2019 3.655% 15.10.2024 3.655% 15-Oct-24 266 2.834 2.984 2.822 GII MURABAHAH 1/2018 4.128% 15.08.2025 4.128% 15-Aug-25 56 2.97 3.097 2.882 GII MURABAHAH 3/2019 3.726% 31.03.2026 3.726% 31-Mar-26 10 3.05 3.05 3.05 GII MURABAHAH 3/2016 4.070% 30.09.2026 4.070% 30-Sep-26 1 3.15 3.15 3.15 GII MURABAHAH 1/2019 4.130% 09.07.2029 4.130% 09-Jul-29 210 3.132 3.132 3.061 GII MURABAHAH 6/2017 4.724% 15.06.2033 4.724% 15-Jun-33 56 3.445 3.445 3.328 GII MURABAHAH 6/2019 4.119% 30.11.2034 4.119% 30-Nov-34 19 3.43 3.497 3.43 GII MURABAHAH 2/2019 4.467% 15.09.2039 4.467% 15-Sep-39 40 3.538 3.538 3.53 GII MURABAHAH 5/2019 4.638% 15.11.2049 4.638% 15-Nov-49 30 3.945 3.95 3.945

Total 6,596 Sources: BPAM

18 March 2020 13

FX Research & Strategy

MYR Bonds Trades Details Maturity Volume Last Day Day PDS Rating Coupon Date (RM ‘m) Done High Low DANAINFRA IMTN 4.760% 24.07.2029 - Tranche No 22 GG 4.760% 24-Jul-29 20 3.248 3.248 3.248 DANAINFRA IMTN 3.470% 26.09.2029 - Tranche 12 GG 3.470% 26-Sep-29 45 3.25 3.25 3.247 PRASARANA IMTN 0% 28.09.2029 - MTN 2 GG 5.070% 28-Sep-29 50 3.244 3.244 3.244 DANAINFRA IMTN 3.690% 27.11.2029 - Tranche No 92 GG 3.690% 27-Nov-29 25 3.248 3.248 3.248 PRASARANA IMTN 4.64% 22.03.2030 - Series 3 GG 4.640% 22-Mar-30 40 3.28 3.28 3.268 DANAINFRA IMTN 4.610% 05.04.2030 - Tranche No 33 GG 4.610% 05-Apr-30 50 3.267 3.267 3.267 PTPTN IMTN 12.03.2032 GG 4.860% 12-Mar-32 10 3.39 3.39 3.39 GENM CAPITAL MTN 1826D 31.3.2022 AAA (S) 4.780% 31-Mar-22 10 3.299 3.299 3.299 GENTING CAP MTN 4.42% 08.6.2022 - Issue No. 1 AAA (S) 4.420% 08-Jun-22 20 3.294 3.313 3.294 ARA BINTANG THIRD SENIOR MTNs 2373D 17.3.2026 AAA 5.500% 17-Mar-26 20 5.108 5.111 5.108 BPMB IMTN 4.50% 04.11.2026 - Issue No 7 AAA 4.500% 04-Nov-26 110 3.331 3.331 3.31 AMAN IMTN 4.400% 12.04.2027 - Tranche No. 18 AAA IS 4.400% 12-Apr-27 50 3.271 3.271 3.25 SABAHDEV MTN 1095D 04.9.2020 - Tranche No 16 AA1 4.150% 04-Sep-20 3 3.929 3.929 3.929 SDBB MTN 1826D 11.5.2022 - Tranche No 16 AA1 5.300% 11-May-22 6 3.318 3.323 3.318 IMTIAZ II IMTN 4.460% 29.05.2020 AA2 (S) 4.460% 29-May-20 20 2.827 2.852 2.827 TANJUNG BP IMTN 4.660% 14.08.2020 AA2 4.660% 14-Aug-20 30 2.979 2.979 2.931 KRUNG THAI 5.100% 04.07.2025 - Tranche No 1 AA2 5.100% 04-Jul-25 5 4.262 4.262 3.447 UMWH IMTN 5.220% 02.10.2026 AA2 5.220% 02-Oct-26 40 3.478 3.491 3.478 CYPARK REF IMTN 4.870% 30.06.2025 AA3 4.870% 30-Jun-25 10 4.318 4.381 4.318 CIMB THAI 5.350% 10.07.2026 - Tranche No 2 AA3 5.350% 10-Jul-26 8 3.273 3.281 3.273 AFFINBANK SUBORDINATED MTN 3650D 05.2.2027 A1 5.450% 05-Feb-27 2 3.437 3.443 3.437 MBSBBANK IMTN 5.050% 20.12.2029 A3 5.050% 20-Dec-29 1 4.7 4.749 4.7 AFFINBANK RM500M PERPETUAL AT1CS (T1) A3 5.800% 29-Jul-18 1 4.836 4.836 4.836 EWIB IMTN 6.400% 24.05.2023 NR(LT) 6.400% 24-May-23 1 6.291 6.291 6.291 HPPSB MTN 2008D 15.8.2024 NR(LT) 5.600% 15-Aug-24 10 4.733 4.735 4.733 MAH SING 6.900% PERPETUAL SECURITIES - SERIES NO 1 NR(LT) 6.900% 02-Apr-17 3 6.086 6.086 5.066

Total 588 Sources: BPAM

18 March 2020 14

FX Research & Strategy

DISCLAIMER

This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or financial instruments referred to herein, or an offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Investors should note that income from such securities or financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s or financial instrument’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities and/or financial instruments or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Malayan Banking Berhad and/or its affiliates and related corporations (collectively, “Maybank”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities and/or financial instruments referred to herein and may further act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and/or financial instruments and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies whose securities are mentioned in this report. Any information or opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward looking statements. Maybank expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This report is prepared for the use of Maybank’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank. Maybank accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

18 March 2020 15

FX Research & Strategy

Published by:

Malayan Banking Berhad (Incorporated In Malaysia)

Foreign Exchange Sales Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Saktiandi Supaat Juniman Azman Amiruddin Shah bin Mohamad Shah Head, FX Research Chief Economist, Indonesia Head, Sales-Malaysia, GB-Global Markets [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (+65) 6320 1379 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29682 (+60) 03-2173 4188

Christopher Wong Myrdal Gunarto Singapore Senior FX Strategist Industry Analyst Janice Loh Ai Lin [email protected] [email protected] Co-Head of Sales, Singapore (+65) 6320 1347 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695 [email protected] (+65) 6536 1336

Fiona Lim Senior FX Strategist Joanna Leong Wan Yi [email protected] Co-Head of Sales, Singapore (+65) 6320 1374 [email protected] (+65) 6320 1511

Yanxi Tan FX Strategist Indonesia [email protected] Endang Yulianti Rahayu (+65) 6320 1378 Head of Sales, Indonesia [email protected] (+62) 21 29936318 or Fixed Income (+62) 2922 8888 ext 29611 Malaysia Winson Phoon Wai Kien Shanghai Fixed Income Analyst Joyce Ha [email protected] Treasury Sales Manager (+65) 6231 5831 [email protected] (+86) 21 28932588 Se Tho Mun Yi Fixed Income Analyst Hong Kong [email protected] Joanne Lam Sum Sum (+60) 3 2074 7606 Head of Corporate Sales Hong Kong [email protected] (852) 3518 8790

18 March 2020 16