86th Executive Committee meeting of the EuFMD EuFMD Strategic Plan Component 1.3 THRACE Control of FMD and other exotic diseases in the Thrace region of Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey

Brussels – 2 April 2014 EuFMD workplan

THRACE 2013 2014 2015 Budget Activity Events M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S (€)

1.1 Planning * * * * * *

1.1 Biannual tripartite 4 * * * * coord meetings 41,000 1.2 Small activity 6 * * * * * * implementation meeting 19,000

2.1 Maintenance of web- Continuous activity * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * based system 9,600 2.2 Training in GIS and 1 * * data management 2,700

Continuous 3.1 Surveillance activities activity * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 145,200 3.2 Delivery of By need * * * * * * * * reagents/consumables 82,500

* re-scheduled/added activities TOTAL 300,000

Brussels – 2 April 2014 Expected results

1. Establishing a co-ordination framework for the activities 1 required to maintain confidence in DF amongst the three 20% countries; 3 4% 2. Established system for real-time data entry to support management of national surveillance activities aimed at 2 maintaining DF confidence; 76% 3. Achieving two years of risk based surveillance results through activities implemented in each country for FMD (and other diseases as decided by Coordination Framework).

Brussels – 2 April 2014 Figure 1: High priority FMD surveillance zones, based on a) high probability of introduction (Istanbul Figure 2: High likelihood zones for and border areas), low sensitivity (vaccinated cattle introduction (including the Greek in Turkish Thrace, as well as low awareness farmers islands). The islands are considered in Istanbul). Priority surveillance areas for wildlife to have lower consequences, due to surveillance are shown in green, representing the more limited opportunities for spread area of contiguous forest running through Turkish to neighbouring areas. Thrace to Bulgaria.

Brussels – 2 April 2014 FMD surveillance for early detection

III and IV cycles 2013

THRACE Early warning surveillance for FMD Clinical and serological surveillance carried out in the period Jul - Dec 2013

Country N. controls in epi-units N. animals sampled N. cattle inspected

BULGARIA 110 1,972 8,925 GREECE 460 2,487 2,595 TURKEY 338 2,441 13,470 TOTAL 908 6,900 24,990 The surveillance performed in low risk area of Turkey has been reported and included in the model (479 epi-units controlled with 76.438 samples collected and 88.469 cattle inspected) Brussels – 2 April 2014 FMD freedom confidence – Cameron model III and IV cycles 2013

Bulgaria Turkey

Design prevalence values * Herd level design prevalence 0.02 P H * Animal-level design prevalence 0.2 P A

Probability of introduction Annual P(intro) 0.02 annually Seasonal variation? Yes Unadjusted monthly P(intro) 0.0017 monthly Monthly relative risk scores Score Adjusted P(intro) 1 1 0.0006 2 1 0.0006 3 1 0.0006 4 3 0.0018 5 3 0.0018 6 3 0.0018 7 3 0.0018 8 3 0.0018 9 3 0.0018 10 6 0.0036 11 6 0.0036 12 1 0.0006

Herd-level risk factor Risk factor name Region RR PrP AR EPI High risk group East 3 0.2 2.142857 0.042857 Greece Low risk group West 1 0.8 0.714286 0.014286

Prior probabilty of freedom 0.5 Prior P(free)

Surveillance sensitivty Type Combined Sensitivity Brussels – 2 April 2014 Serosurvey 0.92 Clinical exam 0.2 Abattoir clinical 0.3 Web-based database

Developed separated database for each country - Regular monitoring of activities - Information shared only when cleared - Adapted to country (language, animal production, activity)

Functionalities Data entry - Epi-units characteristics - Clinical surveillance - Samples collected - Serological results Development of database: Reports Marko Potoknic (consultant) List of controls with results Activity I cycle 2014 - BULGARIA

Sero-surveillance in sheep and goats and clinical examinations of all susceptible livestock on monthly basis

All samples Settlements, Herds, Cattle, Sheep, Goats, Pigs, Samples Municipality for 1st n n n n n n per month quarter 2014 Tsarevo 4 65 181 420 231 24 60 180 M. Tarnovo 3 44 146 709 320 33 60 180 Sredets 3 17 222 428 350 17 40 120 Bolyarovo 2 20 427 211 279 0 40 120 Elhovo 3 122 423 1058 656 0 60 180 Topolovgrad 3 157 836 1810 1716 0 60 180 Svilengrad 3 97 410 2855 828 0 60 180 All 21 522 2645 7491 4380 74 380 1140 Activity I cycle 2014 - GREECE SEROLOGY (Small ruminants, same animals subject to clinical investigation) January February March TOTAL Sub-region E.U. Samples E.U. Samples E.U. Samples E.U. Samples Orestiada 42 167 18 100 0 0 60 267 Didymoteicho 9 36 49 204 2 8 60 248 Soufli 11 44 1 4 48 192 60 240 Alexandroupoli 0 0 15 76 1 4 16 80 Feres 0 0 3 12 49 196 52 208 Orestiada TOTAL 62 247 86 396 100 400 248 1043

Didymoteicho CLINICAL SURVEILLANCE (Cattle , recording of clinical inspections still in progress for Feb & Mar) Soufli January February March TOTAL Sub-region E.U. Bovines E.U. Bovines E.U. Bovines E.U. Bovines Orestiada 16 107 4 162 0 0 20 269 Didymoteicho 11 28 0 0 0 0 11 28 Soufli 12 35 0 0 1 7 13 42 Alexandroupoli 11 219 3 55 2 46 16 320

Feres Feres 2 8 14 318 7 105 23 431 Alexandroupoli TOTAL 52 397 21 535 10 158 83 1090 Report system To maintain the regular confidence level of FMD freedom and early detection a report system has been agreed and implemented - Monthly report from consultants (data, issues, outcomes) - Cycle report from consultants (data, issues, outcomes) - Cycle (three months) report produced by EuFMD and cleared by focal points - Annual report produced by EuFMD

MONTHLY REPORT CYCLE REPORT PPR and SGP surveillance ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE - Clinical surveillance implemented in Bulgaria – Greece (border areas with Turkey)

- Clinical surveillance in Turkey to be implemented by April in the whole Turkish Thrace zone according to the programme discussed

- Clinical surveillance to be improved with guidelines for clinical inspection

- Diagnostic kits/reagents delivered to Greece and Bulgaria for confirmatory tests

- Implementation of targeted sero-surveillance in Greece and Bulgaria.

- The database is being upgraded to allow the registration of the controls carried out for PPR and SGP

PASSIVE SURVEILLANCE Passive surveillance to be improved with leaflets and posters for farmers

Brussels – 2 April 2014 Draft leaflet and poster on SHEEP POX To be edited and translated

Brussels – 2 April 2014 Memorandum of Understanding

The MOU was jointly amended and approved by focal points It covers: - Purpose of collaboration - Area of collaboration - Financial implication - Plan of action - Rules and responsibilities

Brussels – 2 April 2014 Mapping system

Course on mapping system and data management was held in Sofia, in connection with the management meeting

Proposal for GIS development

Brussels – 2 April 2014 PPR and SGP surveillance

Kits and reagents requested for 2014

TOTAL 2014 (USD)

FMD PPR SGP TOTAL

Bulgaria 7,448 4,277 12,932 24,657

Greece 340 1,666 2,374 4,380

Turkey 10,500 0 0 10,500

TOTAL 18,288 5,943 15,306 39,537

Shipment and some consumables not included

Brussels – 2 April 2014 Priorities for the next 6 months

 Maintain level of control and awareness for FMD and regular reporting of the activity carried out and related outcomes

 Implementation and improvement of PPR and SGP active surveillance

 Improvement of PPR-SGP passive surveillance

 Trainings for laboratory staff on PPR and SGP diagnosis techniques, according to the different needs of the three countries.

 The database where all the data of the FMD surveillance are registered should be upgraded with new functionalities for recording and reporting the PPR and SGP surveillance.

 Finalization of the Memorandum of Understanding

Brussels – 2 April 2014 Budget update THRACE Projection until Sept 2015 Original Activity Events Spent Available Budget (€)

1.1 Planning

1.1 Biannual tripartite 4 41,000 26,000 15,000 coord meetings 1.2 Small activity 6 19,000 17,000 2,000 implementation meeting

2.1 Maintenance of web- Continuous 9,600 9,600 0 based system activity 2.2 Training in GIS and 1 2,700 2,700 0 data management

Continuous 3.1 Surveillance activities activity 145,200 152,000 -6,800 3.2 Delivery of By need 82,500 80,000 2,500 reagents/consumables

…………………. 300,000 287,300 12,700

Brussels – 2 April 2014