Incubation Periods Impact the Spatial Predictability of Cholera and Ebola Outbreaks in Sierra Leone
Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone Rebecca Kahna,1, Corey M. Peaka,1, Juan Fernández-Graciaa,b, Alexandra Hillc, Amara Jambaid, Louisa Gandae, Marcia C. Castrof, and Caroline O. Buckeea,2 aCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115; bInstitute for Cross-Disciplinary Physics and Complex Systems, Universitat de les Illes Balears - Consell Superior d’Investigacions Científiques, E-07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain; cDisease Control in Humanitarian Emergencies, World Health Organization, CH-1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland; dDisease Control and Prevention, Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation, Freetown, Sierra Leone FPGG+89; eCountry Office, World Health Organization, Freetown, Sierra Leone FPGG+89; and fDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115 Edited by Burton H. Singer, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, and approved January 22, 2020 (received for review July 29, 2019) Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during total number of secondary infections by an infectious individual in an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. a completely susceptible population (i.e., R0) (13, 14). Indeed, the However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with basis of contact tracing protocols during an outbreak reflects the respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by need to identify and contain individuals during the incubation numerous factors, including the pathogen’s underlying transmission period, and the relative effectiveness of interventions such as parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and pop- symptom monitoring or quarantine significantly depends on the ulation connectivity, and environmental conditions.
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