Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods Fundamental Theories of Physics

An International Book Series on The Fundamental Theories of Physics: Their Clarification, Development and Application

Editor: ALWYN VAN DER MERWE University ofDenver, U.S.A.

Editorial Advisory Board: LAWRENCE P. HORWITZ, Tel-Aviv University, Israel BRIAN D. JOSEPHSON, University of Cambridge, U.K. CLIVE KILMISTER, University ofLondon, u.K. PEKKA J. LAHTI, University of Turku, Finland GUNTER LUDWIG, Philipps-Universitiit, Marburg, Germany ASHER PERES, Israel Institute of Technology, Israel NATHAN ROSEN, Israel Institute of Technology, Israel EDUARD PROGOVECKI, University of Toronto, Canada MENDEL SACHS, State University ofNew York at Buffalo, U.S.A. ABDUS SALAM, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy HANS-JURGEN TREDER, ZentralinstitutjUr Astrophysik der Akademie der Wissenschaften, Germany

Volume 79 Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods Santa Fe, New Mexico, U.S.A., 1995

Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods

edited by Kenneth M. Hanson Dynamic Experimentation Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, U.S.A. and Richard N. Silver Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, U.S.A.

SPRINGER-SCIENCE +BUSINESS MEDIA, B. V. A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress

ISBN 978-94-010-6284-8 ISBN 978-94-011-5430-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-5430-7

Printed on acid-free paper

All Rights Reserved © 1996 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1996 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, inc1uding photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner. CONTENTS

Preface...... xiii

Participant List...... xvii

WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS NOT INCLUDED IN THESE PROCEEDINGS...... xxi

RECONSTRUCTION OF THE PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION IMPLICIT IN OPTION PRICES FROM INCOMPLETE AND NOISY DATA R. J. Hawkins, M. Rubinstein and G. J. Daniell...... 1

MODEL SELECTION AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR EXPONENTIAL SIGNALS A. Ramaswami and G. L. Bretthorst...... 9

HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN TIME-SERIES MODELS L. M. Berliner...... 15

BAYESIAN TIME SERIES: MODELS AND COMPUTATIONS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES IN THE PHYSICAL SCIENCES M. West...... 23

MAXENT, MATHEMATICS, AND INFORMATION THEORY I. Csiszar...... ; ...... 35

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE VON MISES CONCENTRATION PARAMETER D. L. Dowe, 1. J. Oliver, R. A. Baxter and C. S. Wallace...... 51

A CHARACTERIZATION OF THE DIRICHLET DISTRIBUTION WITH APPLICATION TO LEARNING BAYESIAN NETWORKS D. Geiger and D. Heckerman...... 61

THE BOOTSTRAP IS INCONSISTENT WITH PROBABILITY THEORY D. H. Wolpert...... 69 vi CONTENTS

DATA-DRIVEN PRIORS FOR HYPERPARAMETERS IN REGULARIZATION D. Keren and M. Wennan...... 77

MIXTURE MODELING TO INCORPORATE MEANINGFUL CONSTRAINTS INTO LEARNING I. Tchoumatchenko and 1-G. Ganascia...... 85

MAXIMUM ENTROPY (MAXENT) METHOD IN EXPERT SYSTEMS AND INTELLIGENT CONTROL: NEW POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS V. Kreinovich, H. T. Nguyen and E. A. Walker...... 93

THE DE FINETTI TRANSFORM S. 1. Press...... 101

CONTINUUM MODELS FOR BAYESIAN IMAGE MATCHING 1. C. Gee and P. D. Peralta...... 109

MECHANICAL MODELS AS PRIORS IN BAYESIAN TOMOGRAPHIC RECONTRUCTION A. Rangarajan, S.-J. Lee and G. Gindi...... 117

THE BAYES INFERENCE ENGINE K. M. Hanson and G. S. Cunningham...... 125

A FULL BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR INVERSE PROBLEM A. Mohammad-Djafari ...... 135

PIXON-BASED MULTIRESOLUTION IMAGE RECONSTRUCTION AND QUANTIFICATION OF IMAGE INFORMATION CONTENT R. C. Puetter...... 145

BAYESIAN MULTIMODAL EVIDENCE COMPUTATION BY ADAPTIVE TEMPERING MCMC M.-D. Wu and W. J. Fitzgerald...... 153

BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND THE ANALYTIC CONTINUATION OF IMAGINARY-TIME QUANTUM MONTE CARLO DATA J. E. Gubernatis, 1. Bonca and M. Jarrell ...... 163 CONTENTS vii

SPECTRAL PROPERTIES FROM QUANTUM MONTE CARLO DATA: A CONSISTENT APPROACH R. Preuss, W. Von der Linden and W. Hanke...... 171

AN APPLICATION OF MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD TO DYNAMICAL CORRELATION FUNCTIONS AT ZERO TEMPERATURE H. Pang, H. Akhlaghpour and M. Jarrell...... 179

CHEBYSHEV MOMENT PROBLEMS: MAXIMUM ENTROPY AND KERNEL POLYNOMIAL METHODS R. N. Silver, H. Roeder, A. F. Voter and J. D. Kress ...... , 187

CLUSTER EXPANSIONS AND ITERATIVE SCALING FOR MAXIMUM• ENTROPY LANGUAGE MODELS J. D. Lafferty and B. Suhm ...... 195

A MAXENT TOMOGRAPHY METHOD FOR ESTIMATING FISH DENSITIES IN A COMMERCIAL FISHERY S. Lizamore, M. Vignaux and G. A. Vignaux ...... 203

TOWARD OPTIMAL OBSERVER PERFORMANCE OF DETECTION AND DISCRIMINATION TASKS ON RECONSTRUCTIONS FROM SPARSE DATA R. F. Wagner, K. J. Myers, D. G. Brown, M. P. Anderson and K. M. Hanson ...... 211

ENTROPIES FOR DISSIPATIVE FLUIDS AND MAGNETOFLUIDS WITHOUT DISCRETIZATION D. Montgomery...... 221

ON THE IMPORTANCE OF Q MARGINALIZATION IN MAXIMUM ENTROPY R. Fischer, W. Von der Linden and V. Dose...... 229

QUANTUM MECHANICS AS AN EXOTIC PROBABILITY THEORY S. youssef ...... 237

BAYESIAN PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF NUCLEAR-FUSION CONFINEMENT TIME SCALING LAWS V. Dose, W. Von der Linden and A. Garrett...... 245 viii CONTENTS

HIERARCHICAL SEGMENTATION OF RANGE AND COLOR IMAGES BASED ON BAYESIAN DECISION THEORY P. Boulanger...... 251

PRIORS ON MEASURES J. Skilling and S. Sibisi...... 261

DETERMINING WHETHER TWO DATA SETS ARE FROM THE SAME DISTRIBUTION D. H. Wolpert ...... 271

OCCAM'S RAZOR FOR PARAMETRIC FAMILIES AND PRIORS ON THE SPACE OF DISTRIBUTIONS V. Balasubrarnanian ...... 277

SKIN AND MAXIMUM ENTROPY: A HIDDEN COMPLICITY? B. Dubertret, N. Rivier and G. Schliecker ...... 285

PREDICTING THE ACCURACY OF BAYES CLASSIFIERS R. R. Snapp...... 295

MAXIMUM ENTROPY ANALYSIS OF GENETIC ALGORITHMS J. L. Shapiro, M. Rattray and A. Priigel-Bennett...... 303

DATA FUSION IN THE FIELD OF NON DESTRUCTIVE TESTING S. Gautier, G. Le Besnerais, A. Mohammad-Djafari and B. Lavayssiere...... 311

DUAL STATISTICAL MECHANICAL THEORY FOR UNSUPERVISED AND SUPERVISED LEARNING G. Deco and B. Schiirmann ...... 317

COMPLEX SINUSOID ANALYSIS BY BAYESIAN DECONVOLUTION OF THE DISCRETE FOURIER TRANSFORM F. Dublanchet, P. Duvaut and J. Idier...... 323

STATISTICAL MECHANICS OF CHOICE P. S. Faynzilberg...... 329 CONTENTS IX

RATIONAL NEURAL MODELS BASED ON INFORMATION THEORY R. L. Fry ...... 335

A NEW ENTROPY MEASURE WITH THE EXPLICIT NOTION OF COMPLEXITY W. Holender ...... 341

MAXIMUM ENTROPY STATES AND COHERENT STRUCTURES IN MAGNETO HYDRODYNAMICS R. Jordan and B. Thrkington...... 347

A LOGNORMAL STATE OF KNOWLEDGE P. R. Dukes and E. G. Larson...... 355

PIXON-BASED MULTIRESOLUTION IMAGE RECONSTRUCTION FOR YOHKOH'S HARD X-RAY TELESCOPE T. Metcl;llf, H. S. Hudson, T. Kosugi, R. C. Puetter and R. K. Pilla...... 361

BAYESIAN METHODS FOR INTERPRETING PLUTONIUM URINALYSIS DATA G. Miller and W. C. Inkret...... 367

THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF SONAR ECHOES R. Pitre...... 375

OBJECTIVE PRIOR FOR COSMOLOGICAL PARAMETERS G. Evrard ...... 381

MEAL ESTIMATION: ACCEPTABLE-LIKELIHOOD EXTENSIONS OF MAXENT P. S. Faynzilberg...... 387

ON CURVE FITTING WITH TWO-DIMENSIONAL UNCERTAINTIES F. H. Frohner...... 393

BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN SEARCH FOR THE IN VIVO T2 DECAY-RATE DISTRIBUTION IN HUMAN BRAIN I. Gideoni...... 407 x CONTENTS

BAYESIAN COMPARISON OF FIT PARAMETERS: APPLICATION TO TIME-RESOLVED X-RAY SPECTROSCOPY V. Kashyap ...... 413

EDGE ENTROPY AND VISUAL COMPLEXITY P. Moos and J. P. Lewis ...... 419

MAXIMUM ENTROPY TOMOGRAPHY C. T. Mottershead ...... 425

BAYESIAN REGULARIZATION OF SOME SEISMIC OPERATORS M. D. Sacchi and T. J. Ulrych ...... 431

MULTIMODALITY BAYESIAN ALGORITHM FOR IMAGE RECONSTRUCTION IN POSITRON EMISSION TOMOGRAPHY S. Sastry, 1. W Vanmeter and R.E. Carson ...... 437

EVIDENCE INTEGRALS W. Von der Linden, R. Fischer and V. Dose...... 443

Index ...... 449 The Workshop coordinator, Barbara Rhodes, in between the cochairs, Ken Hanson (left) and Richard Silver at the Bradbury Science Museum in Los Alamos. Wlodek Holender gets greeted by Barbara Rhodes and Rose Vigil. PREFACE

The Fifteenth International Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Meth• ods was held July 31-August 4, 1995 in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. St. John's College, located in the foothills of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, provided a congenial setting for the Workshop. The relaxed atmosphere of the College, which was thoroughly enjoyed by all the attendees, stimulated free-flowing and thought• ful discussions. Conversations continued at the social events, which included a reception at the Santa Fe Institute, a New Mexican dinner at Richard Silver's home, and an excursion to Los Alamos that ended with a mixed grill at FUller Lodge, the main hall of the former Los Alamos Ranch School. This volume represents the Proceedings of the Workshop. Articles on the tra• ditional theme of the Workshop, application of the maximum-entropy principle and Bayesian methods for statistical inference in diverse areas of scientific re• search, are contained in these Proceedings. As is tradition, the Workshop opened with a tutorial on Bayesian methods, lucidly presented by Peter Cheeseman and Wray Buntine (NASA AMES, Moffett Field). The lecture notes for their tutorial are available on the World Wide Web at http://bayes .lanl. gov / "'maxent/. In addition, several new thrusts for the Workshop are described below. The Workshop was generously supported by the Center for Nonlinear Stud• ies and the Radiographic Diagnostic Program, both in the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and by the Santa Fe Institute (SFI). This support permitted us to add some new features to the Workshop program. We were able to invite sev• eral distinguished speakers to present overviews of some exciting new areas of research: Imry Csiszar (Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Budapest, Hungary) talked about The maximum-entropy principle and information theory, Michael Miller (Washington University, St. Louis) discussed Deformable models, and Ju• lian Besag (University of Washington, Seattle) presented The Bayesian inference machine: an introduction to Markov-chain Monte Carlo. Also, we were able to support the organization of several special sessions, namely Time Series Analysis, organized by Mark Berliner (Ohio State University), Machine Learning, organized by David Wolpert (Santa Fe Institute and TXN Inc.), Deformable Models, orga• nized by Kenneth Hanson (Los Alamos National Laboratory), and Data Analysis of Physics Simulations, organized by Richard Silver (Los Alamos National Labo• ratory). We wish to express our appreciation of the unflagging efforts of the staff at the Center for Nonlinear Studies, especially those of Barbara Rhodes and Rose Vigil, who coordinated the conference. Their conscientious attention to all details received countless compliments from the Workshop attendees. We also thank Mary Louise Garcia (Los Alamos National Laboratory) for her expert composition of these Proceedings.

Kenneth M. Hanson and Richard N. Silver Los Alamos National Laboratory

~ ~ fs) ~ ~ ~ f) c;) f c;) (a)(s) ~ ~ ~ ~

Legend for group photograph 1. Fritz Froehner, 2. Glenn Heidbreder, 3. Rafael Laboissiere, 4. Clint Scovel, 5. Danny Keren, 6. bury Csiszar, 7. Michael Miller, 8. David Wolpert, 9. Gordon Hogenson, 10. Richard Jordan, 11. Jim Gee, 12. John Lafferty, 13. Tom Mottershead, 14. Anthony Crider, 15. Richard Puetter, 16. Richard Pitre, 17. Tom Met• calf, 18. Tim Gosnell, 19. William Dibble, 20. Chung-Yi Hong, 21. Tony Vignaux, 22. Gustavo Deco, 23. Ray Hawkins, 24. Jonathan Oliver, 25. Vijay Balasubramanian, 26. Roger Bilisoly, 27. John Stutz, 28. Jonathan Shapiro, 29. Ali Mohammad• Djafari, 30. Everett Larson, 31. Anand Ramaswami, 32. Anand Rangarajan, 34. Gene Gindi, 35. Richard Silver, 36. Tad UI• rych, 37. Gary Erickson, 38. Guthrie Miller, 40. Marcel Nijman, 41. Peter Cheeseman, 42. Larry Bretthorst, 43. Sibusiso Sibisi, 44. Vladik Kreinovich, 45. Myron Tribus, 46. Larry Schwalbe, 47. Greg Cunningham, 48. Jim Press, 50. Wlodek Holender, 51. Benoit Dubertret. 52. John Skilling, 53. Volker Dose, 54. Bob Snapp, 55. Rose Vigil, 56. Bob Fry, 58. Miao-Dan Wu, 59. Bill Fitzgerald, 60. Pierre Boulanger, 61. Bob Wagner, 62. Guillaume Evrard, 63. Julian Besag, 65. Saul Youssef, 66. Roland Preuss, 67. Iftah Gideoni, 68. David Montgomery, 69. Rainer Fischer, 70. Barbara Rhodes, 71. Paul Fougere, 72. Vinay Kashyap, 73. Sergei Rebrik, 74. Sri Sastry, 75. Ken Hanson, 76. Ray Smith PARTICIPANT LIST

Vijay Balasubramanian Larry Bretthorst Gustavo Deco Princeton Univ. . Washington Univ. Siemens AG Corporate Research Physics Dept., Jaowin Hall Dept. of Chemistry ZFE T SN 4 Otto-Hahn-Ring 6 Princeton, NJ 08544 USA 1 Brookings Dr. 81739 Munich, Germany [email protected] St. Louis, MO 63130 USA [email protected] [email protected] Howard N. Barnum William E. Dibble Univ. of New Mexico Wray L. Buntine Dept. of Physics and Astronomy Center for Advanced Studies Heuristicrats Research Inc. Brigham Young Univ. Albuquerque, NM 87131-1156 USA 1678 Shattuck Ave. Provo, Utah 84602 USA [email protected] Suite 310 [email protected] Berkeley, CA 94709-1631 USA Mark Berliner [email protected] Volker Dose NCAR Max-Planck-Inst. fur Plasmaphysik PO Box 3000 JohnP. Burg Postfach 1533 Boulder, CO 80307-3000 USA Entropic Processing Inc. 0-85740 Garching, Germany [email protected] 10011 North Foothill Blvd. Cupertino, CA 95014 USA Benoit L. Dubertret Julian E. Besag Laboratoire de Physique Theorique Univ.ofWashington Peter C. Cheeseman 3, rue de l'Universite Dept. of Statistics NASA Ames Research Center Univ.ofStrasbourg Box 354322 MS 269-2 67084, Strasbourg, France Seattle, WA 98195-4322 USA Moffett Field, CA 94035 USA [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Frederic Dublanchet Roger Bilisoly Anthony W. Crider Laboratoire des Signaux et Systemel DX-13, MS-P940 NlS-2, MS-D436 Plateau de Moulon Los Alamos National Lab. Los Alamos National Lab. Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex 91192, Francf Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Los Alamos, NM 87544 USA [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Phillip R. Dukes Lisa Borland Imre Csiszar Dept. of Physics & Astronomy Physics Dept. Mathematical Inst. Brigham Young Univ. Univ.ofCalifomia, Berkeley Hungarian Academy of Sciences Provo, Utah 84602 USA Berkeley, CA 94720 USA Realtanoda-u 13-15 [email protected] H-1053 Budapest, Hungary [email protected] [email protected] Gary J. Erickson Pierre Boulanger Seattle Univ. National Research Council of Canada Gregory Cunningham Dept. of Electrical Engineering Inst. for Information Technology DX-13, MS-P94O Seattle Univ. Montreal Rd, Bldg. M-50 Los Alamos National Lab. Seattle, WA 98122-4460 USA Ottawa, Ontario, KlA OR6Canada Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] xviii PARTICIPANT LIST

Guillaume Evrard Iftab Gideoni Gordon Hogenson GRAAL, Univ. Montpellier II 67 Yavne Rd. T-13, MS-B213 cc 072, Place Eugene Bataillon Rehovot76343 Los Alamos National Lab. Montpellier Cedex 05 Israel Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA F-34095, France [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Gene Gindi Wlodek Holender Peter S. Faynzilberg SUNY Stony Brook Dept. of Communication Systems Carnegie Mellon Univ. Dept. of Radiology LundUniv. Graduate School oflndustrial Admin. Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA P.O. Box ll8 Schenley Park [email protected] S-221 00 Lund, Sweden Pittsburgh,PA 15213 USA [email protected] [email protected] Timothy R. Gosnell MST-I0, MS-E543 Chung-Yi Hong Rainer Fischer Los Alamos National Lab. Washington Univ. Max-Planck lnst. Fur Plasmaphysik Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Chemistry Dept. , Box 1134 P.O. Box 1533 [email protected] One Brookings Dr. 0-85740 Garching St. Louis, MO 63130-4899 USA Germany James E. Gubematis [email protected] [email protected] T-ll, MS-B262 Los Alamos National Lab. Richard K. Jordan William J. Fitzgerald Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Center for Nonlinear Analysis Univ. of Cambridge [email protected] Dept. of Mathematics Dept. of Engineering Carnegie Mellon Univ. Trumpington Street Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 USA Kenneth M. Hanson Cambridge, CB2-lP2 [email protected] United Kingdom DX-13, MS-P940 Los Alamos National Lab. [email protected] Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Vinay L. Kashyap [email protected] Univ.ofChicago Paul F. Fougere AXAF Science Center 29 Randolph Rd. 5640 S. Ellis AAC HanscomAFB,MA 01731-3010 USA Raymond Hawkins Chicago, IL 60637 USA lohn Stafford Trading [email protected] Suite 3904 [email protected] 440 South Lasalle St. Fritz Froehner Chicago, IL 60605 USA Daniel Z. Keren Dept. of Mathematics and Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe [email protected] INR, P.O. Box 3640 Computer Science 0-76021 Karlsruhe Univ.ofHaifa David Heckerman Germany Haifa, 31905 Microsoft Israel [email protected] One Microsoft Way, 9S/I Redmond, WA 98052-6399 USA [email protected] Robert L. Fry [email protected] Johns Hopkins Univ. Vladik Y. Kreinovich Applied Physics Lab. Univ.ofTexas Johns Hopkins Rd. Glenn Heidbreder Dept. of Computer Science Laurel, MD 20723 USA 11509 Hemingway Drive El Paso, TX 79902 USA Reston, VA 22094-1240 USA [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

JamesC.Gee Rafael Laboissiere Univ. of Pennsylvania Leon Heller lnst. de la Communication Parlee Grasp Laboratory P-21, MS-D454 46 ave. Felix Viallet Dept of Computer & Info. Sci. Los Alamos National Lab. F -38031 Grenoble Cedex Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA France [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] PARTICIPANT LIST xix

John Lafferty Ali Mohammad-Djafari Roland T. Preuss School of Computer Science LSS-CNRS Inst. fur Theoretische Physik Cameige Mellon Univ. Lab. des Signaux et Systems Universitat Wurzburg Am Hubland 5000 Fotbes Avenue Supelec, Plateau de Moulon 97076 Wurzburg Pittsburgh, PA 15217 USA Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex 91192 Germany [email protected] France [email protected] [email protected] Everett Larson Richard C. Puetter Dept. of Physics and Astronomy David C. Montgomery Center for Astrophysics & Space Brigham Young Univ. Dept . of Physics & Astronomy Sciences Provo, Utah 84602 USA Dartmouth College Univ. of California, San Diego [email protected] Hanover, NH 03755-3528 USA 9500 Gilman Drive [email protected] La Jolla, CA 92093-O111 USA John Lewis [email protected] Interval Research Corp. Charles T. Mottershead 1801 Page Mill Rd., Building C AOT-I,MS-H808 Anand Ramaswami Palo Alto, CA 94304 USA Los Alamos National Lab. Physics Dept., Box 11 05 [email protected] Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA I Brookings Drive [email protected] Washington Univ. St. Louis, MO 63130 USA David Madigan Univ.ofWashington Marcel Jan Nijman [email protected] Dept. of Statistics Univ.ofNymegen Box 354322 Geert Grooteplein 21 Anand Rangarajan Seattle, WA 98195 USA CPKI-23I Dept. of Computer Science [email protected] 6525 EZ Nymegen Yale Univ. The Netherlands 5 I Prospect St. New Haven, CT 06520-8285 USA Robert McKee [email protected] DX-13, MS P940 [email protected] Los Alamos National Lab. Jonathan Oliver Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Dept. Computer Science Sergei P. Rebrik [email protected] Monash Univ. Univ.ofCalifornia Clayton, Vic 3168 Dept. of Physiology Australia 513 Parnassus Ave. Thomas R. Metcalf RoomS-762 Inst. for Astronomy [email protected] San Francisco, CA 94143-0444 USA 2680 Woodlawn Dr. Univ.ofHawaii HanbinPang [email protected] Honolulu, HI 96822 USA Dept. of Physics [email protected] Univ. of Cincinnati David B. Rosen Cincinnati, OH 45221 USA New York Medical College [email protected] Dept. of Medicine (Munger Pavillion) Guthrie Miller (Grasslands Reservation) ESH-12, MS-K483 Valhalla, NY 10595 USA Los Alamos National Lab. Richard Pitre Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA 2471 Windbreak Dr. [email protected] [email protected] Alexandria, VA 22306 USA [email protected] Srikanth Sastry Michael Miller Physical Sciences Lab. Div. of Computer Research and Tech. Dept. of Electrical Engineering James Press Building 12A, Room 2007 Campus Box 63130 Dept. of Statistics National Institutes of Health Washington Univ. Univ.ofCalifornia Bethesda, MD 20892 USA I Brookings Dr. Riverside, CA 92521-0138 USA St. Louis, MO 63130 USA [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] xx PARTICIPANT LIST

Lany Schwalbe John C. Stutz Robert F. Wagner XHM, MS-F663 NASA Ames Research Center CDRH-FDA Los Alamos National Lab. MS269-2 12720 Twinbrook Parkway Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000 MS-HFZ-142 [email protected] USA Rockville, MD 20857 USA [email protected].nasa.gov [email protected] [email protected] Irina Tchoumatchenko Scott A. Watson Jonathan Shapiro Laforia-CNRS DX-H, MS-P940 Santa Fe Institute Univ. of Paris VI Los Alamos National Lab. 1399 Hyde Park Road 4 Place Jussieu Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA 75252 Paris Cedex 05 [email protected] [email protected] France [email protected] Mike West Sibusiso Sibisi DukeUniv. Univ.ofCambridge HeruyTirri Inst. of Statistics & Decision Cavendish Lab. Dept of Computer Science Sciences Manngley Rd. P.O. Box 26 Durham, NC 27708-0251 USA Univ.ofHelsinki Cambridge C33 DHE [email protected] United Kingdom Fin-OOOI4 Finland David A. Wilkinson Richard N. Silver [email protected] Chevron Petroleum Tech. Co. T-11, MS-B262 1300 Beach Blvd. Los Alamos National Lab. Myron Tribus La Habra, CA 90631-6374 USA Los Alamos, NM 87544 USA 350 Britto Terrace [email protected] [email protected] Fremont, CA 94539 USA [email protected] David H. Wolpert John Skilling Santa Fe Institute Univ.ofCambridge RueyS. Tsay 1399 Hyde Park Rd. Cavendish Lab. Univ.ofChicago Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA Madingley Rd. Graduate Scbool of Business [email protected] Cambridge CB3 OHE 1101 E 58th Street United Kingdom Chicago, IL 60637 USA Miao-DanWu [email protected] [email protected] Dept. of Engineering Univ. of Cambridge Charles Ray Smith Tadeusz Jan Ulrych Trumpington St US Army Missile Command Dept of Geophysics & Astronomy Cambridge CB2 IPZ AMSMI-RD-MG-RF Univ. of British Columbia United Kingdom Redstone Arsenal, AL 35898-5253 Vancouver V6T IZ5 [email protected] USA BC,Canada [email protected] Robert Snapp Saul Youssef SCRI Computer Science & Electrical George Anthony Vignaux Florida State Univ. Engineering Dept Inst. of Statistics & Operations Tallahassee, FL 32306-4052 USA Univ. of Vermont Research Burlington, VT 05405 USA [email protected] POBox 600 [email protected] Victoria Univ. Wellington, New Zealand Randy 1. Zauhar Tripos Inc. David M. Stupin [email protected] 1699 S. Hanley Rd. ESA-MT, MS-C914 St Louis, MO 63144 USA Los Alamos National Lab. Los Alamos, NM 87544 USA [email protected] [email protected] WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS NOT INCLUDED IN THESE PROCEEDINGS

BAYESIAN METHODS AND THE MAXENT PRINCIPLE P. Cheeseman and W. Buntine

A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO ACOUSTIC-TO-ARTICULATORY INVERSION IN SPEECH: DETECTING THE POSITION OF THE VELUM FROM SPEECH SOUNDS R. Laboissiere

BAYESIAN SPECIFICATION OF MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES R. Tsay

BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING FOR ACYCLIC DIRECTED GRAPHICAL MODELS D. Madigan

ISSUES IN SELECTING EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE MEASURES FOR PROBABILISTIC CLASSIFIERS D. Rosen

DEFORMABLE MODELS M. Miller

THE BAYESIAN INFERENCE MACHINE: AN INTRODUCTION TO MARKOV• CHAIN MONTE CARLO J. Besag

INFERRING NONLINEAR DYNAMICS OF STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS IN CONTINUOUS AND DISCRETE-TIME L. Borland

GEODESICS AND OPTIMAL MEASUREMENTS FOR THE INFORMATION METRIC ON QUANTUM MECHANICAL STATES H. Barnum

TOWARD THE GOAL OF OBTAINING AN OPTIMAL THEORY OF LOGICAL INFERENCE FOR APPLICATION TO THE INTERPRETATION OF PHYSICAL DATA E. Larson xxii

NETWORK-BASED GENERATION OF LEARNING SOFTWARE W. Buntine

SCALING OF THE ENERGY CONFINEMENT TIME IN THE W7AS STELLARATOR V.Dose

MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING USING PROBABILITY THEORY AS LOGIC C.-Y. Hong

SYMMETRY BREAKING AND TRAINING FROM INCOMPLETE DATA WITH RADIAL BASIS BOLTZMANN MACHINES M. Nijrnan