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Philippine Climate Change Assessment 2017

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IN PARTNERSHIP 2017 WITH PHILIPPINE Climate Change ASSESSMENT WORKING GROUP 2 Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation 1 2017 PHILIPPINE Climate Change ASSESSMENT WORKING GROUP 2 Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Coordinating Lead Author: Rex Victor O. Cruz Chapter Lead Authors: Porfirio M. Aliño, Rex Victor O. Cruz, Carlos Primo C. David, Laura T. David, Felino P. Lansigan, Rodel D. Lasco, Fely Marilyn E. Lorenzo, Rosa T. Perez, Juan M. Pulhin Contributing Authors: Rex Victor O. Cruz, Olivia C. Cabrera, Wilfredo Y. Licuanan, Samuel S. Mamauag, Eileen L. Peñaflor, Juan M. Pulhin, Rene N. Rollon, Maricar S. Samson, Fernando P. Siringan, Lourdes V. Tibig, Noralene M. Uy, Cesar L. Villanoy Technical Coordinators: Rodel D. Lasco and Perlyn Pulhin-Yoshida Production Team: Perlyn Pulhin-Yoshida, Perpilili Vivienne A. Tiongson, Rafaela Jane P. Delfino, Ana Veronica S. Gabriel, Arianna Y. Lim, Maria Eliniesa A. Lucas, Jan Daniel S. Belmonte and Sandee G. Recabar This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center) would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oscar M. Lopez Center and Climate Change Commission. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Oscar M. Lopez Center and Climate Change Commission. The designation employed and the presentation of the materials herein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the publisher. SUGGESTED CITATION: Cruz, R. V. O., Aliño, P. M., Cabrera O. C., David, C. P. C., David, L. T., Lansigan, F. P., Lasco, R. D., Licuanan, W. R. Y., Lorenzo, F. M., Mamauag, S. S., Peñaflor, E. L., Perez, R. T., Pulhin, J. M., Rollon, R. N., Samson, M. S., Siringan, F. P., Tibig, L. V., Uy, N. M., Villanoy, C. L. (2017). 2017 Philippine Climate Change Assessment: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation. The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. and Climate Change Commission. ISSN: 2508-089X Language: English © Copyright 2017 by The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. and Climate Change Commission PUBLISHED BY: The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. 36th Floor One Corporate Centre Building Julia Vargas corner Meralco Avenues, Ortigas Pasig City 1605 Philippines Tel: +63-2-755-2332 loc. 2276 Email: [email protected] Website: www.omlopezcenter.org Layout and cover by: Jan Daniel Belmonte Please send feedback and suggestions to: [email protected] ii Contents Table of Contents iii About the Authors viii List of Tables xiii List of Figures xv Foreword xvi Acknowledegment xvii Definition of Terms xviii References xxvi List of Acronyms and Scientific Units xxvi CHAPTER 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 Scope and Limitation 2 1.2 Current Vulnerabilities and Sensitivities 2 1.3 Future Vulnerabilities 6 1.4 Adaptation 10 1.5 References 13 CHAPTER 2. ECOSYSTEMS, THEIR PROPERTIES AND SERVICES 17 2.1 Executive Summary 18 2.2 Scope and Limitation 19 2.3 Current Sensitivity and Vulnerability 19 2.4 Key Future Impacts and Vulnerability 21 2.4.1 Forests 21 2.4.2 Coastal and Marine Ecosystems 23 2.4.3 Ecosystem Biodiversity 24 2.5 Adaptation 25 2.5.1 Adaptation Plans and Programs 25 2.5.2 Adaptation Policies 26 2.5.3 Link Between Adaptation and Mitigation 29 2.6 Implications to Sustainable Development iii 2.7 Uncertainties and Key Researchable Areas 29 2.8 References 29 31 CHAPTER 3. FRESHWATER RESOURCES AND THEIR MANAGEMENT 34 3.1 Executive Summary 35 3.2 Methods and Procedure 35 3.3 Current Sensitivity and Vulnerability 36 3.3.1 Amount, Frequency, and Intensity of Rainfall 36 3.3.2 Hazards and Risks from Rainfall 37 3.3.3 Risks and Damage and Loss Due to Tropical Cyclones 39 3.3.4 Vulnerability of Watershed Areas 41 3.4 Assumptions About Future Trends 41 3.4.1 Climate Drivers 3.4.1.1 Rainfall and Water Availability 41 3.4.1.2 Temperature Impact on Evapotranspiration 41 3.4.1.3 External Conditions: Tropical Cyclones and Monsoons 43 43 3.4.2 Non-Climate Drivers 3.4.2.1 Demand for Water 43 3.4.2.2 Major Anthropogenic Drivers 43 44 3.5 Key Future Impacts and Vulnerability 44 3.5.1 Surface Water 44 3.5.2 Groundwater 45 3.5.3 Floods 45 3.5.4 Erosion and Sediment Transport 45 3.6 Social Implications 46 3.6.1 Cost of Changes in Water Balance and Quality 46 3.6.2 Cost of Damages Due to Floods and Droughts 47 3.7 Adaptation 48 3.7.1 Adaptation Options in Principle 48 3.7.2 Adaptation Options in Practice 50 3.7.3 Constraints to Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity 53 3.8 Uncertainties and Key Researchable Areas 53 3.9 References iv 55 CHAPTER 4. COASTAL SYSTEMS AND LOW-LYING AREAS 60 4.1 Executive Summary 61 4.2 Introduction: Scope and Key Issues 61 4.3 Current Sensitivity and Vulnerability 64 4.3.1 Changes in the Behavior of Coastal Systems 4.3.1.1 Coastal Integrity 4.3.1.2 Internal Seas and Upwelling Areas 64 4.3.1.3 Marine Biogeochemistry 64 4.3.1.4 Estuaries 64 4.3.1.5 Mangroves 65 4.3.1.6 Seagrasses 65 4.3.1.7 Coral Reefs 65 65 4.3.2 Exacerbating Factors 4.3.2.1 Increasing Human Utilization of the Coastal Zone 66 4.3.2.2 External Terrestrial and Marine Influences 66 4.3.2.3 Observed Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Systems 66 67 4.4 Assumptions about Future Trends 68 4.4.1 Environmental and Socio-economic Trends 68 4.4.2 Climate and Sea-level Ocean Change Scenarios 69 4.5 Key Future Impacts and Vulnerability 70 4.5.1 Consequences to Natural System 70 4.5.2 Consequences for Human Society 70 4.6 Costs and other Socio-economic Aspects 71 4.6.1 Socio-economic Consequences Under Current Climate and Ocean Conditions 71 4.6.2 Socio-economic Consequences of Projected Climate and Ocean Change 71 4.7 Adaptation: Practices, Options and Constraints 71 4.7.1 Current Trends and Proposals of Adaptation to Changes in Climate and Ocean Change 71 4.7.2 Costs, Limits and Trade-offs in Adaptation 76 4.7.3 Adaptive Capacity 77 4.7.4 Constraints to Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity 77 4.8 Conclusions: Implications for Sustainable Development 78 4.9 Key Uncertainties, Research Gaps, and Priorities 79 4.9.1 Baseline Data and Future Scenarios 79 4.9.2 Potential Consequences 79 4.9.3 Adaptation Options 80 v 4.9.4 Two-way Information Dissemination 81 4.10 References 81 CHAPTER 5. AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES 86 5.1 Executive Summary 87 5.2 Methods and Procedure 88 5.2.1 Analysis of Historical Climate 88 5.2.2 Analysis of Future Climate 88 5.2.3 Crop Impact Modeling 89 5.2.4 Socio-economic Modeling and Analysis 89 5.3 Importance of Agriculture and Fisheries 90 5.4 Current Sensitivity and Vulnerability 92 5.5 Assumptions About Future Trends 94 5.6 Key Future Impacts and Vulnerability 95 5.7 Adaptation 97 5.7.1 The Context for Adaptation 97 5.7.2 Adaptation Options in Principle 97 5.7.3 Adaptation Options in Practice 101 5.7.4 Constraints to Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity 107 5.8 Implications to Sustainable Development 107 5.9 Key Research Gaps 108 5.10 References 110 CHAPTER 6. HUMAN HEALTH 115 6.1 Executive Summary 116 6.2 Methods and Procedure 117 6.3 State of Health in the Philippines 120 6.4 Current Sensitivity and Vulnerability 123 6.5 Assumptions About Future Trends 126 6.6 Key Future Impacts and Vulnerability 126 6.7 Adaptation 127 6.7.1 Adaptation Options in Principle vi 6.7.2 Adaptation Options in Practice 127 6.7.3 Constraints to Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity 129 132 6.8 Uncertainties and Key Researchable Areas 133 6.9 References 134 vii About the Authors Porfirio M. Aliño, PhD Dr. Aliño is a Professor at the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute. A prolific author, he has written over 100 technical papers with nearly 50 ISI (International Science Index) articles published, establishing him as one of the top coral reef scientists in the South East Asian region. Professor Aliño has received numerous awards including being one of the Outstanding Young Scientists in the Philippines in 1993, and the “Gawad Chanselor Award for Extension Work” in 2000 for his efforts in coral reef management in the Philippines. In 2003 he won the prestigious Hugh Greenwood Environmental Science Award under the National Academy of Science and Technology (NAST), and his publication of the first atlas of Philippine coral reefs was recognized as the NAST Outstanding Book Award for 2005. Recently, he was conferred the 2017 Pantas Award (Outstanding Research/Scientist category) by the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development of the Department of Science and Technology. Over his 30-year association with the University of the Philippines, he has been instrumental in developing coral reef fisheries and ecological research and has mentored many of the postgraduate students who are now among the best marine scientists in the Philippines.
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