Professional Services | Consulting INDUSTRY UPDATE │ March 2021 Professional Services / Consulting Practice Overview
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Professional Services | Consulting INDUSTRY UPDATE │ March 2021 Professional Services / Consulting Practice Overview Introduction Contents Our March Professional Services Sector Update explores key data and insights on › WHAT WE’RE READING the consulting sector. Access articles on segment trends, the M&A environment post-COVID-19, and reasons why the space provides a compelling investment › PUBLIC MARKETS opportunity. You’ll also find commentary and analysis on current capital market trends and M&A dynamics within the global professional services sector. › ECONOMIC TRENDS Please contact our professionals to discuss our perspectives and experience in the › M&A MARKET TRENDS space. Contacts Our Practice › Derek Lewis Managing Director Harris Williams’ Business Services Group has experience advising companies that [email protected] provide a range of commercial, industrial and professional services. +1 (804) 915-1118 This particular report focuses on trends and metrics in the following areas: › Bob Baltimore Managing Director [email protected] Business Process Outsourcing Human Capital Management +1 (804) 915-1129 Consulting Information Technology Services › Brian Lucas Education & Training Insurance & Risk Management Managing Director [email protected] Engineering Legal Services +1 (804) 932-1323 Financial Services Marketing & Information › Anthony Basmajian Director Governance, Technology Enabled Services [email protected] Risk & Compliance +1 (804) 887-6030 › Bryce Walker Director Representative Professional Services and Consulting Transactions [email protected] +1 (804) 887-6154 › Graham Gillam Director [email protected] +1 (804) 887-6074 › Taylor Morris Director [email protected] +1 (804) 887-6019 › Pete Morgan Vice President [email protected] +1 (804) 887-6170 2 What We’re Reading Trends Transforming Management Consulting in 2021 Linchpin 3/5/2021 “The massive management consulting industry continues growing, but not without pains. It has yet to integrate big data or automate processes, making it scalable only so long as qualified individuals continue to move into the industry.” “Adjusting to digitization presents its largest challenge. While many industries from marketing to health care utilize big data and business automation processes, as discussed, this has not reached management consulting yet. This transformation must occur for the industry to continue to grow.” Read the full article here. COVID-19 is Shaping M&A: Here’s What Private Equity Needs to Know Plante Moran 2/19/2021 “Like the virus itself, COVID-19’s impact on companies varies depending on the condition and circumstances of their individual b usiness. Some companies were initially hit hard, but rebounded quickly, others continue to suffer lasting effects.” “Professional services such as consulting may have some projects on hold, so staff utilization is down. Nevertheless, most are maintaining staff levels in expectation of return to normal business levels.” Read the full article here. Key Trends in 2021 for Consulting InfoDesk 12/1/2020 “Management consulting trends in 2021 will be shaped by the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. The subsequent worldwide recession is expected to result in a 14% downturn in the global management consulting industry in 2020, while the U.S. management consulting industry is expected to shrink by 15%.” “Consultancies’ own digital delivery will expand beyond video conferencing and collaboration tools, with offerings designed using emerging technologies like no-code software and AI to create new digital methodologies that transform clients’ fundamental work processes.” Read the full article here. The Future of Consulting: Shorter, Sharper, Cheaper Financial Review 10/20/2020 “These factors all combine to mean the future ofconsulting is one where projects, especially those related to information technology, are shorter, sharper and cheaper. It’s a future that will put the high-overhead structure of the big four and Accenture under pressure.” “The pandemic has also demonstrated to business leaders that, when required, employees can quickly adapt to radically different ways of working. This means much less need for the traditional change management program, where a large group of consultants work to ensure client staff accept and are trained in the need for new ways of working.” Read the full article here. Why Private Equity Firms Are Upping Their Stakes in the Consultancy Sector Consultancy.org 7/30/2018 “Where previously uncertainty in the market had hindered investor confidence, now the allure of high-quality specialist consultancy assets across the sector, and a recognition and understanding of the impressive returns that many consultancies generate, has acted as a catalyst for growth in M&A activity.” “Despite the project-based nature of many consultancies, private equity (PE) investors have identified that a clear track recordof repeat work with loyal clients can prove attractive as an earnings stream. On top of that, longer-term projects have helped provide better earnings visibility, a fact valued by investors.” Read the full article here. 3 Public Markets1 Historical Stock Prices – Last 5 years 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Historical Median TEV/LTM EBITDA Multiples – Last 5 years 26x 24x 22x 20x 18x 16x 14x 12x 10x 8x 6x 4x 2x 0x Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Business Process Outsourcing Marketing and Information Services Consulting Transaction Processing Human Capital Education and Training Insurance, Legal, and Risk Services IT Consulting Managed Services S&P 500 Index Notes: Data as of March 14, 2021. Comparable company sets listed on page 8. Sub-sector indices weighted by stock price. 4 Public Markets1 12-Month % Change in Stock Price Median TEV / 2021E EBITDA Multiple Business Process Outsourcing 74.1% Business Process Outsourcing 12.8x Consulting 39.3% Consulting 14.2x Human Capital 71.1% Human Capital 12.6x Insurance, Legal, and Risk Services 26.1% Insurance, Legal, and Risk Services 15.4x Marketing & Information Services 47.7% Marketing & Information Services 18.7x Transaction Processing 18.5% Transaction Processing 20.2x Education & Training 48.9% Education & Training 8.3x IT Consulting 59.1% IT Consulting 12.3x Managed Services 120.6% Managed Services 14.5x S&P 500 15.4% S&P 500 14.6x Median 3-Year Revenue CAGR (2017 – 2020) Median LTM Revenue Growth Business Process Outsourcing 9.6% Business Process Outsourcing 2.4% Consulting 7.7% Consulting 1.7% Human Capital 5.0% Human Capital -9.2% Insurance, Legal, and Risk Services 6.6% Insurance, Legal, and Risk Services 2.0% Marketing & Information Services 4.2% Marketing & Information Services -0.2% Transaction Processing 6.0% Transaction Processing 3.0% Education & Training -1.4% Education & Training 3.1% IT Consulting 9.5% IT Consulting 3.5% Managed Services 0.0% Managed Services 13.1% S&P 500 2.6% S&P 500 -1.6% Median EBITDA Margin (2017 – 2020) Median LTM EBITDA Margin Business Process Outsourcing 17.3% Business Process Outsourcing 17.0% Consulting 10.8% Consulting 9.6% Human Capital 5.4% Human Capital 5.1% Insurance, Legal, and Risk Services 24.6% Insurance, Legal, and Risk Services 25.4% Marketing & Information Services 22.7% Marketing & Information Services 24.9% Transaction Processing 29.9% Transaction Processing 29.8% Education & Training 7.0% Education & Training 10.3% IT Consulting 17.1% IT Consulting 17.2% Managed Services 12.1% Managed Services 20.3% S&P 500 23.1% S&P 500 24.6% Net DEBT / LTM EBITDA Business Process Outsourcing 0.3x Consulting 2.2x Human Capital -0.6x Insurance, Legal, and Risk Services 2.3x Marketing & Information Services 2.1x Transaction Processing 0.9x Education & Training 0.4x IT Consulting -0.1x Managed Services 1.4x S&P 500 1.8x Notes: Data as of March 14, 2021. Comparable company sets listed on page 8. 5 Economic Trends U.S. GDP Growth2 Consumer Confidence and Unemployment Rate3,4 (In billions indexed to 2012 USD) 160.0 16.0% $19.5 5.0% 140.0 14.0% UnemploymentRate $19.0 120.0 12.0% $18.5 100.0 10.0% 0.0% $18.0 80.0 8.0% $17.5 60.0 6.0% $17.0 ConsumerConfidence (5.0%) 40.0 4.0% $16.5 20.0 2.0% $16.0 0.0 0.0% $15.5 (10.0%) Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Consumer Confidence Unemployment Rate Non-Farm Payrolls (1-Month net change)4 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims5 (Payrolls in 000s) Jan-21: Feb-21: 10,000 49(P) 8,000,000 834,000 5,000 7,000,000 0 6,000,000 5,000,000 (5,000) 4,000,000 (10,000) Initial Claims Initial 3,000,000 (15,000) 2,000,000 (20,000) 1,000,000 (25,000) 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Consumer Price Index4 Services PMI6 Jan-21: Feb-21: 1.7% 55.3 4.0% 70 3.5% 60 3.0% 50 2.5% 40 2.0% 30 1.5% YOYChange 1.0% 20 0.5% 10 0.0% 0 -0.5% Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 6 M&A Market Trends1 Professional Services M&A Volume by Year Note: Data through March 14, 2021.