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Statement on Monetary Policy
Statement on Monetary Policy AUGUST 2019 Statement on Monetary Policy AUGUST 2019 Contents Overview 1 1. The International Environment 5 Box A: Small Banks in China 21 2. Domestic Economic Conditions 25 Box B: The Recent Increase in Iron Ore Prices and Implications for the Australian Economy 37 3. Domestic Financial Conditions 41 4. Inflation 51 5. Economic Outlook 59 The material in this Statement on Monetary Policy was finalised on 8 August 2019. The next Statement is due for release on 8 November 2019. The Statement is published quarterly in February, May, August and November each year. All the Statements are available at www.rba.gov.au when released. Expected release dates are advised ahead of time on the website. For copyright and disclaimer notices relating to data in the Statement, see the Bank's website. The graphs in this publication were generated using Mathematica. Statement on Monetary Policy enquiries: Secretary's Department Tel: +61 2 9551 8111 Email: [email protected] ISSN 1448–5133 (Print) ISSN 1448–5141 (Online) Overview The Australian economy has been navigating a growth is therefore likely to remain low and to period of slow growth, with subdued growth in increase more gradually than earlier expected. household income weighing on consumption As a result, inflation is likely to take longer to rise spending. In contrast, employment growth has to 2 per cent. Trimmed mean inflation is forecast been strong. The response of labour supply has to remain around 1½ per cent for the rest of this been even stronger, taking the participation rate year, before increasing to be a little under to a record level. -
Bloomberg Indices Indices
1 June 2017 //////////////////////////////////////////////// ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Bloomberg Indices Month in Review – May 2017 Month in Review ................................ ................................................................ ................................ ................ 2 Australian Market Performance ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 6 New Zealand Market Performance ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 9 Global Market Performance ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 12 Market Yields ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 15 Supply ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 21 Maturities and Removals ................................ ................................ ................................ .................................. 23 Index Market Capitalisation ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 24 Page 1 Month in Review 1 June 2017 ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// -
Letter from Melbourne Is a Monthly Public Affairs Bulletin, a Simple Précis, Distilling and Interpreting Mother Nature
SavingLETTER you time. A monthly newsletter distilling FROM public policy and government decisionsMELBOURNE which affect business opportunities in Australia and beyond. Saving you time. A monthly newsletter distilling public policy and government decisions which affect business opportunities in Australia and beyond. p11-14: Special Melbourne Opera insert Issue 161 Our New Year Edition 16 December 2010 to 13 January 2011 INSIDE Auditing the state’s affairs Auditor (VAGO) also busy Child care and mental health focus Human rights changes Labor leader no socialist. Myki musings. Decision imminent. Comrie leads Victorian floods Federal health challenge/changes And other big (regional) rail inquiry HealthSmart also in the news challenge Baillieu team appointments New water minister busy Windsor still in the news 16 DECEMBER 2010 to 13 JANUARY 2011 14 Collins Street EDITORIAL Melbourne, 3000 Victoria, Australia Our government warming up. P 03 9654 1300 Even some supporters of the Baillieu government have commented that it is getting off to a slow F 03 9654 1165 start. The fact is that all ministers need a chief of staff and specialist and other advisers in order to [email protected] properly interface with the civil service, as they apply their new policies and different administration www.letterfromcanberra.com.au emphases. These folk have to come from somewhere and the better they are, the longer it can take for them to leave their current employment wherever that might be and settle down into a government office in Melbourne. Editor Alistair Urquhart Some stakeholders in various industries are becoming frustrated, finding it difficult to get the Associate Editor Gabriel Phipps Subscription Manager Camilla Orr-Thomson interaction they need with a relevant minister. -
Oliver's Insights
David Scilly, Portfolio Manager, Fixed Interest AMP Capital Investors August 2009 Understanding cash rates and how they shape the economy Short term capital market lending rates have as their starting point, the bank bill rate, while long term capital market lending rates take their lead from the swap rate. Historically, both these reference rates decrease as cash rates fall. However increases in the risk premium due to the global financial crisis have raised commercial bank funding costs in this area. This risk premium is A look behind the Reserve Bank of defined as the extra return required by lenders to compensate them for additional liquidity and credit quality concerns. The Australia’s (RBA’s) target cash rate, its cost of funding sourced from deposits has also risen due to impact on commercial lending rates, the increased competition as banks seek to source more of their $A, and what interest rate changes mean funding from this relatively stable source. for the economy. Maintaining profit margins The additional costs faced by banks have meant that not every From September 2008 to March 2009 the Reserve Bank of rate decrease from the RBA has flowed through to commercial Australia reduced cash rates from a high of 7.25% to 3.00%. banks’ loan books. The RBA estimates that the interest rate on One of the main aims of these uncharacteristically rapid cuts major banks’ outstanding funding liabilities has declined by an was to lower commercial lending rates and avoid an impending average of 3.30% since the first reduction of the cash rate in recession by stimulating growth in the Australian economy. -
Additional Estimates 2010-11
Dinner on the occasion of the First Meeting of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Kirribilli House, Kirribilli, Sydney Sunday, 19 October 2008 Host Mr Francois Heisbourg The Honourable Kevin Rudd MP Commissioner (France) Prime Minister Chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and Geneva Centre for Official Party Security Policy, Special Adviser at the The Honourable Gareth Evans AO QC Foundation pour la Recherche Strategique Co-Chair International Commission on Nuclear Non- General (Ret'd) Jehangir Karamat proliferation and Disarmament Commissioner (Pakistan) and President of the International Crisis Director, Spearhead Research Group Mrs Nilofar Karamat Ms Yoriko Kawaguchi General ((Ret'd) Klaus Naumann Co-Chair Commissioner (Germany) International Commission on Nuclear Non- Member of the International Advisory Board proliferation and Disarmament and member of the World Security Network Foundation of the House of Councillors and Chair of the Liberal Democratic Party Research Dr William Perry Commission on the Environment Commissioner (United States) Professor of Stanford University School of Mr Ali Alatas Engineering and Institute of International Commissioner (Indonesia) Studies Adviser and Special Envoy of the President of the Republic of Indonesia Ambassador Wang Yingfan Mrs Junisa Alatas Commissioner (China) Formerly China's Vice Foreign Minister Dr Alexei Arbatov (1995-2000), China's Ambassador and Commissioner (Russia) Permanent Representative to the United Scholar-in-residence -
Index Methodology
THETHE BLBLOOMOOMBBERGERG C OAUSBONDMMODITY INDANDEX NZB METONDHOD OINDEXLOGY METHODOLOGY MarchJu 201ne6 2 014 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >> INDEX METHODOLOGY The Bloomberg AusBond and NZBond Index Family INDEXINDEX METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY //// 11 THE BLOOMBERG AUSBOND AND NZBOND INDEX METHODOLOGY March 2016 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1. OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Index Family Structure ........................................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Subindices .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 Returns Universe and Projected Universe ............................................................................................................. 5 1.4 Index Oversight and Governance .......................................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Risks Associated with the Bloomberg AusBond AND NZBond Indices .................................................................. 6 CHAPTER 2. INDEX DESIGN ............................................................................................................................... -
Blair (ALP 8.0%)
Blair (ALP 8.0%) Location South east Queensland. Blair includes the towns of Ipswich, Rosewood, Esk, Kilcoy and surrounding rural areas. Redistribution Gains Karana Downs from Ryan, reducing the margin from 8.9% to 8% History Blair was created in 1998. Its first member was Liberal Cameron Thompson, who was a backbencher for his entire parliamentary career. Thompson was defeated in 2007 by Shayne Neumann. History Shayne Neumann- ALP: Before entering parliament, Neumann was a lawyer. He was a parliamentary secretary in the Gillard Government and is currently Shadow Minister for Immigration. Robert Shearman- LNP: Michelle Duncan- Greens: Sharon Bell- One Nation: Bell is an estimating assistant in the construction industry. Majella Zimpel- UAP: Zimpel works in social services. Simone Karandrews- Independent: Karandrews is a health professional who worked at Ipswich Hospital. John Turner- Independent: Peter Fitzpatrick- Conservative National (Anning): John Quinn- Labour DLP: Electoral Geography Labor performs best in and around Ipswich while the LNP does better in the small rural booths. Labor’s vote ranged from 39.37% at Mount Kilcoy State School to 76.25% at Riverview state school near Ipswich. Prognosis Labor should hold on to Blair quite easily. Bonner (LNP 3.4%) Location Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner includes the suburbs of Mount Gravatt, Mansfield, Carindale, Wynnum, and Manly. Bonner also includes Moreton Island. Redistribution Unchanged History Bonner was created in 2004 and has always been a marginal seat. Its first member was Liberal Ross Vasta, who held it for one term before being defeated by Labor’s Kerry Rea. Rea only held Bonner for one term before being defeated by Vasta, running for the LNP. -
Malcolm Turnbull's Plotters Find Political Success Elusive
Malcolm Turnbull's plotters find political success elusive AFR, Aaron Patrick, 22 Aug 2017 Mal Brough vanished. Wyatt Roy sells call centre technology. Peter Hendy wants a Senate seat. James McGrath is in ministerial limbo land. Arthur Sinodinos stays quiet. Scott Ryan is struck out sick. Simon Birmingham is at war with the Catholic Church. Mitch Fifield tried to buy media peace from One Nation. They have been dubbed the G8: the eight Liberals most intimately involved in the successful plot to remove Tony Abbott as prime minister. When they installed Malcolm Turnbull party leader on September 14, 2015, all might have seen their political careers flourishing under what many people expected at the time to be a unifying, inspiring and competent prime minister. Instead, their stories in some ways personify the broader story of the Liberal government: starting with such promise, they have mostly either proved to be disappointments or failed to live up to their early promise. An opinion poll published Monday shows the Labor Party would easily win power based on current voting preferences. Fateful decision When they gathered on the evening of September 13, 2015, at Hendy's home in Queanbeyan, on the outskirts of Canberra, the atmosphere was thick with anticipation. The group, excluding Birmingham, who was flying up from Adelaide, took the fateful decision to remove a first-term leader who had ended six years of Labor power. The next day, Roy, Hendy, Brough, Ryan, Sinodinos and Fifield walked briskly alongside Turnbull to the meeting in Parliament House where they brought down Abbott, triggering open conflict between the two main wings of the party that persists today. -
The Cash Rate and the Consumer: a Modern Australian Socio-Politico-Economic Saga
The Cash Rate and the Consumer: A Modern Australian Socio-Politico-Economic Saga Author Worthington, Andrew Charles, Valadkhani, A. Published 2013 Journal Title Consumer Interests Annual Copyright Statement © 2013 American Council on Consumer Interests. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version. Downloaded from http://hdl.handle.net/10072/59819 Link to published version http://www.consumerinterests.org/cia2013 Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au Consumer Interests Annual Volume 59, 2013 The Cash Rate and the Consumer: A Modern Australian Socio-Politico-Economic Saga Andrew C. Worthington, Griffith University1 Abbas Valadkhani, University of New England2 Purpose As in many developed economies, the residential mortgage market is one of Australia’s most important retail financial markets, not least from the perspective of consumers and lenders, but also from that of Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). From the household point of view, as at March 2012, some 67 percent of Australian households possessed residential property (either owned outright or mortgaged), with 36 percent of households bearing a home loan, with a median value of $200 thousand dollars for debt-holding households and gearing (the ratio of home loan debt to assets) of 44 percent (RBA 2012). Consequently, Australian households are now among the most indebted in the world, with -
Schedule 1 - Asx 24 Individual Contract Specifications
SCHEDULE 1 - ASX 24 INDIVIDUAL CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS SECTION 1: RULES APPLICABLE TO ALL CLASSES OF FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS LISTED ON THE EXCHANGE 1.1 Provision for Making Determinations Relating to Futures Contracts The following are terms of every Class of Contract, which is a Futures Contract in addition to any other terms Manner of Quoting Futures Prices. Such manner as is determined by the Exchange and set out in the Procedures. Minimum fluctuations to be used in quoting futures Such manner as is determined by the prices. Exchange and set out in the Procedures. Final Trading Day in a Settlement Month. Such Business Day as is determined by the Exchange and set out in the Procedures. Hours of trading and time at which trading ceases on Such time as is determined by the Exchange Final Trading Day. and set out in the Procedures. Settlement Day. Such Business Day as is determined by the Exchange and set out in the Procedures. Final time by which Seller’s and Buyer’s obligations, Such times, respectively, on the Settlement respectively, must be satisfied on Settlement Day. Day as the Exchange determines and set out in the Procedures. Settlement Months. Such months as are determined by the Exchange and set out in the Procedures. Settlement Price. Such price as is determined by the Approved Clearing Facility. Time of declaration of Settlement Price. Such time as is determined by the Approved Clearing Facility. 1.2 Provision for Making Determinations Relating to Options Contracts Unless otherwise specified in the Individual Contract Specifications for a particular Class of Contract: (a) The following are terms of every Class of Options Contract, in addition to other terms: Manner of quoting Contract Premiums. -
Work of Committees
Joint Committees administered by the Senate Committee Office 1 July 2015–31 December 2015 Australian Commission for Law Enforcement Integrity (Joint Statutory) Australian Commission for Law Enforcement Integrity (Joint Statutory) 1 July 2015 to 31 December 2015 Method of appointment Pursuant to Part 14 of the Law Enforcement Integrity Commissioner Act 2006; appointed 2 December 2013. Current members Date of appointment Mr Russell Matheson MP (Macarthur, NSW, LP) 05.12.13 (elected Chair on 12.12.13) Senator Catryna Bilyk (TAS, ALP) 01.07.14 (elected Deputy Chair on 17.07.14) Senator Sean Edwards (SA, LP) 02.12.13 The Hon Justine Elliot MP (Richmond, NSW, ALP) 17.07.14 Mr Steve Irons MP (Swan, WA, LP) 23.02.15 Senator the Hon David Johnston (WA, LP) 10.09.15 Senator Glenn Sterle (WA, ALP) 01.07.14 Mr Jason Wood MP (La Trobe, VIC, LP) 05.12.13 Mr Tony Zappia MP (Makin, SA, ALP) 05.12.13 Former members Term of appointment Senator Mark Furner (QLD, ALP) 04.12.13–30.06.14 (Deputy Chair 12.12.13–30.06.14) Mr Chris Hayes MP (Fowler, NSW, ALP) 05.12.13–17.07.14 Senator Barry O'Sullivan (QLD, NATS) 01.07.14–10.09.15 Senator Stephen Parry (TAS, LP) 02.12.13–01.07.14 The Hon Christian Porter MP (Pearce, WA, LP) 05.12.13–23.02.15 Senator the Hon Lisa Singh (TAS, ALP) 04.12.13–01.07.14 Inquiries As at 01.07.2015 Date Referred Public Hearings Reports Tabled Current Inquiry 01.07.2015–31.12.2015 As at 31.12.2015 Performance of statutory duties Ongoing Nil Nil Ongoing Jurisdiction of the Australian 06.03.2014 Nil Nil Yes Commission for Law Enforcement -
International Economics: Light at the End of the Tunnel?
International economics: light at the end of the tunnel? Joseph Capurso July 2020 International economics: light at the end of the tunnel? In this CEDA information paper, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Head of International Economics, Global Economic & Markets Research, Joseph Capurso, assesses the global economic outlook and the lasting influence that COVID-19 is likely to leave on industries and economies around the world. • The global economy is bouncing back as lockdowns ease but, after an initial surge, the recovery may run out of puff. • Some industries will need to be restructured, particularly if a vaccine is not found soon. • High unemployment, low inflation and low interest rates will remain for years. The evolving global economic recovery A peculiar recession makes for a peculiar recovery – the contraction in output was very deep but very quick at only a few months. The high frequency indicators suggest a rebound has already started but we expect the pace of the recovery to run out of puff after an initial surge caters to pent-up demand. A quick return to the pre-corona- virus path of economic activity is unlikely (Figure 1). 2 International economics: light at the end of the tunnel? Some businesses will not re-open. International tourism will remain closed while bor- ders are largely shut except in parts of Europe. Consumer services will be slower to rebound than consumer goods because of social distancing. Unemployment rates and underemployment rates will take many years to return back to pre-virus rates. Large slack in the labour market will bear down on growth in wages and prices.