Content 1

Welcome 2

General information Local information, Wifi, registration 3 Conference hours 4 Poster introductions & Author-in-attendance times 5

Exhibitions 8

Opening & Plenary Sessions Opening Session 10 Great Debate 11 Awards Session 12 Young Scientist Award and Young Scientist Travel Awards 13 EMS Outstanding Contributions and Media Awards 14 EMS Tromp Award 15 Harry Otten Prize for Innovation in Meteorology 16 EMS Silver Medal Lecture 2015 17

Side meetings 18

Session index 20

Conference Programme Oral Conference Programme – Monday 22 Poster Conference Programme – Monday 29 Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday 34 Poster Conference Programme – Tuesday 44 Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday 51 Poster Conference Programme – Wednsday 61 Oral Conference Programme – Thursday 69 Poster Conference Programme – Thursday 78 Oral Conference Programme – Friday 86 Poster Conference Programme – Friday 91

Author index 96

Floor plan 103

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria will bethefocusofaplenarydiscussion. ■ ■ ■ applications aswelltherisks,questionssuchas: and challengesof“BigData”formeteorological Big Data - isit real or is it hype? To explorethe opportunities The GreatDebate:BigDatainMeteorology app formobiledevices. also availableonline,ontheUSBstickandthrough Detailed information about the session programme is in Trieste. awarded atthenextAnnualMeeting2016 be announced onFridayatlunchtime,buttheprizewill The winneroftheOutstandingPosterAwardwillbe introductions ofeachsession. This work. year distincttimeslotsarescheduledforshortposter authors’ the of presentation and discussions the conference–theyofferdiverseopportunitiesfor Both, oralandposterpresentationsareimportantfor for theirmeetings. be opentolargerprojectsandcommunitiesasaforum continued in future, the EMS and partner conferences will be will approach This sessions. new eight in resulted has programme groups: the first open call for session proposals The programmealsoincludesnewsessionsinmostother met inthefuture. and establish a forum how for discussions they can be observations for society of needs changing the reflect to “Measurements andObservations”hasbeenestablished, You will notice that anewprogramme group Conference programme saved, businesses can take action to manage and are mitigate risks. lives quantifiable: and communities areprotected,andgovernments and forecasting clear effective are of warning benefits The apparent. and itsimpactsacrossEuropeeachyearareincreasingly The considerablesocio-economiccostsofsevereweather in Sofia. Meteorology (ECAM)2015 and theEuropeanConferenceonApplicationsof Dear participants

EMS President Horst Böttger High impactweather from observationto impact mitigation. and hydrological access tothemostrelevantdata? decision-makers canidentifyandhave How canwebesurethatforecastersand Can itimproveouranalysesandnowcasts? used intheforecastingprocess? How doweensurethattherightinformationis hazards: , welcometotheEMSAnnualMeeting NIMH-BAS Director Hristomir Branzov

oen ete ad flood risk forecasting. and weather modern end-to-end processof theme ECAMexploresthe year’s conference Under this WELCOME BMS President Ekaterina Batchvarova

Mtoooy n Scey Ar olto, weather Side meetings–NetworkingSocialprogramme pollution, Air Society: forecasting andfreedata”. and “Meteorology MedalLecture Anton EliassenwillthengivetheSilver The EMSSilverMedalwillbepresentedandtheLaureate Award andtheHarryOttenPrizewillalsobepresented. of this forum for their own awards scheme: The EMS Tromp use make to decided have bodies Other Awards. Travel Outstanding ContributionAwardandfourYoungScientist awards willbehandedover,includingthenewEMS During aspecialceremonyonTuesdaynumberof interesting weekinSofia. Welcome again, and we hope you will have a very further developthemeetings. triestoactand your commentsandwhereeverpossible appreciates PSC The conference. the of aspects all on As inpreviousyearsyouwillbeinvitedtogivefeedback Feedback during theweek. and discussed be presented research, resultsandapplicationsthatwill of wealth the from benefit and enjoy will you hope and (PSC) forhavingdevisedaveryinterestingprogramme also gratefultotheProgrammeandScienceCommittee all ofthemfortheircommitmentandhardwork!Weare developed and promoted the sessions. Sincere thanks to withouttheworkofconvenorswho been possible To buildthesessionprogrammewouldnothave organisation, theexhibitors. EMS MemberSocietiesandAssociates,theCopernicus the organisers, local the – reality a Sofia in meeting this We aregratefultoallwhohavecontributedmake Thank you – thisistheraisond’êtreofmeetings. these of use ample Make conference. the at networking closing ceremony,willprovidemanyopportunitiesfor that includes the icebreaker, coffee breaks and the Side meetings,thesessionsandsocialprogramme Awards developments andplansoftheseorganisations. make use of the opportunity to inform yourself on new Monday from open lunchtime to Thursday afternoon and we hope you will be will It Society. Meteorological of meteorologicalinstrumentsandtheAmerican of commercialcompaniesinvolvingmanufacturers The conferencewillalsofeatureasmallexhibition The exhibition–usetheopportunity AMC President Paulina Valtchanova General BULATSA Director Georgi Peev General information 3

General information that particular tram/bus so if you change you will need to punch a new ticket. One ticket costs 1 BGN. It is valid for Location and conference address the metro, busses, trams etc. as well. Week tickets are not available. The fine for not having a ticket is 10 BGN The 15th EMS Annual Meeting & the 12th European and is payable on the spot. Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) are held jointly in Sofia, Bulgaria from 07 to 11 September Taxis 2015. A taxi costs around €5 from the city centre to the hotel

and around €15 from the airport to the hotel. Fares per The conference is organised jointly by the European kilometre are displayed on a small piece of paper on the Meteorological Society (EMS), EUMETNET, BMS, AMC taxi window and any price is legal if written. You need to and National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology see it before you enter; Entering the taxi means that you (NIMH-BAS). agree with the price. The fees vary between 0.79–4.99

BGN (€0.40–€2.50) per km. Venue OK Supertrans prices and average taxi prices: Hotel Marinela Sofia James Bourchier Boulevard 100 . Initial tax 0.70 BGN or €0.35 1407 Sofia, Bulgaria . During day time (06:00–22:00): 0.79 BGN/km or €0.40 Rules of conduct . During night time (22:00–06:00): 0.90 BGN/km or €0.46 . Smoking is prohibited in the conference centre. . While standing: 0.22 BGN/minute or €0.11 . It is prohibited to copy any presentation from the desktops in the lecture rooms. OK SUPERTRANS: tel. (+359) 2 973 21 21. . Please switch off any mobile phones or set in mute TAXI-S-EXPRESS: tel. (+359) 2 9 12 80. mode during the sessions. YELLOW: tel. (+359) 2 91 119. . Please note that video-graphic recordings are not allowed. Wireless network access Official language Participants have free WiFi access in the conference The official language of the conference is English. area. A password is not required. Simultaneous interpretation is not provided. It is therefore expected that authors are able to present their research in the English language. Registration & information desk The registration & information desk is located in the foyer Insurances of the hotel conference area.

The organisers cannot accept liability for personal accident, loss or damage to private property, which may Opening hours be incurred as a result of the participation in the Sunday, 06 September 2015 conference. Participants are, therefore, advised to 15:00–18:00 arrange appropriate insurance cover. This should extend not only to travel but also to cancellation costs. Monday – Thursday, 07–10 September 2015 08:00–18:00

Local transportation information Friday, 11 September 2015 Central bus station 08:00–10:00

Sofia's international bus station is adjacent to the main railway station. Registration & Public transport abstract management Two metro lines intersect in the city centre at the Serdika Copernicus Meetings stop. Line 1 runs from the East (Sofia Airport) to the West Bahnhofsallee 1e (Obelya), via the city centre while line 2 runs from South 37081 Göttingen, Germany (conference hotel, stop "James Bourchier") to North Phone: +49-551-900339-20 (Obelya). The underground is clean and efficient, though [email protected] it does get crowded at peak times. Tickets cost one www.copernicus.org Bulgarian Lev (BGN) and can be bought from the ticket machines at the entrance to the stations. Bus, trolley bus and tram tickets must be bought from kiosks prior to EMS Sustainable Meetings Policy boarding and validated on the bus or tram. Look for the punching devices on the wall. Insert ticket and punch. The EMS Council at its Session in March 2015 approved Many trams and trolley buses now have ticket machines the EMS Sustainable Meetings Policy, which includes at the front, where you can buy a ticket that does not actions as well as recommendations for collaborating need punching. The ticket is only valid for the journey on organisations and participants. It covers a variety of areas

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 4 General information

such as travel activities with their impact on the climate, ▲ Please note that video-graphic recordings are not consumption of resources (energy, water, paper etc.) and allowed, and mobile phones must be switched off/in mute considerations about reduction and minimisation of mode during the sessions. waste. For details on actions and recommendations consult: http://www.emetsoc.org/meetings-events/ems-annual- Poster sessions meetings/sustainable-meetings. All posters are on display in room Sofia I, adjacent to the

foyer. Poster numbers on the boards are printed in different Specifically, this programme book has been printed on colours, indicating the programme group. recycled paper; the lanyard is made of bamboo fibre (no

PET) along with a biodegradable snap hook (pressed maize). We kindly ask you to return the name badge with Poster introductions the lanyard at the registration counter when leaving the conference centre. For each session time is reserved for short oral introductions to posters. Some sessions foresee such a time slot within the oral programme, for other sessions EMS2015 app this time slot is normally scheduled at 16:00, directly preceding the related poster-in-attendance time. For Download the EMS2015 app for these later, the oral time slots can be found in the iPhones and Android smartphones. programme under separate session names, called P01, P02, P03, etc. For details of each session see the

programme or the table on the right.

Display times Authors are kindly asked to put up their posters as soon Conference hours as possible within the according display time in order to enable the conference participants to view their posters at Oral sessions any time within the display day, and to take them down on Wednesday between 18:00–18:30 (display time: Starting time for the oral sessions Tuesday to Friday is Monday to Wednesday) and on Friday between 13:00– 09:00 am. 14:00 (display time: Thursday to Friday). Posters that Monday, 07 September 2015 have not been removed within this dismantling time will be removed and disposed off. Opening: 09:30–13:00 Block 3: 14:00–16:00 Block 4: 17:00–19:00 Outstanding Poster Award Icebreaker reception: 19:15–21:00 An Outstanding Poster Award will be given at the 15th EMS & 12th ECAM in Sofia. Tuesday, 08 September 2015 All posters displayed on their poster boards will be Block 1: 09:00–10:30 screened by a selection committee. The evaluation of Block 2: 11:00–13:00 posters will be based on the following criteria: Award ceremony: 14:00–15:30 . Scientific quality; Block 4: 17:00–19:00 . Innovativeness of the approach; . Potential impacts of the results; Wednesday, 09 September 2015 . Presentation aspect, including clarity of the message to readers of your poster. Block 1: 09:00–10:30 Block 2: 11:00–13:00 The selection committee consists of the following senior Block 3: 14:00–16:00 scientists: Plenary discussion: 17:00–18:30 . Ingeborg Auer, Austria . Frank Beyrich, Germany . Marie Doutriaux Boucher, EUMETSAT Thursday, 10 September 2015 . Ewen McCallum, UK (chair) Block 1: 09:00–10:30 . Georgi Georgiev, Bulgaria Block 2: 11:00–13:00 Block 3: 14:00–16:00 Award Block 4: 17:00–18:30 The author(s) will receive a certificate, one registration fee waiver for the EMS&ECAC 2016 and the poster will Friday, 11 September 2015 be highlighted as example of Best Practice on the EMS Block 1: 09:00–10:30 Website. The recipient of the award will be announced on Block 2: 11:30–13:00 Friday, 11 September 2015, 13:15, in the foyer. Announcement of poster award recipient 13:15–14:00 The award winning poster 2014 is on display in the foyer and at the back of this programme book.

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria General information 5

Poster introductions and author-in-attendance times

Author-in- Monday, 07 September 2015 Poster introductions attendance ECAM1: From Observations to Mitigation During oral session 15:50 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 ECAM6: Economic Benefits of Forecasts During oral session 15:50 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 ASI1/NWP1: Dynamical Meteorology/predictability During oral session 15:15 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 of high impact weather ASI2: Monsoon circulations over East Asia PO2 16:00 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 ASI9: Atmospheric hazards During oral session 18:45 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 CL4: Climate change detection PO1 16:00 Sofia III 16:15–17:00 Author-in- Tuesday, 08 September 2015 Poster introductions attendance ASI3: Space weather PO3 09:45 Kyoto 16:15–17:00 ASI5: Coastal meteorology & oceanography PO6 15:45 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 ASI7/CE6: Human Biometeorology PO3 09:45 Kyoto 16:15–17:00 ASI10: BL physics and parameterizations PO4 15:45 Sofia III 16:15–17:00 ASI15: Phenology & agrometeorology PO3 09:45 Kyoto 16:15–17:00 CL3: Historical Climatology PO5 15:45 Kyoto 16:15–17:00 CL5: Climate prediction During oral session 12:45 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 CE5: Education PO6 15:45 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 OBS4: Meteorological Observations from GNSS During oral session 10:15 Sofia III 16:15–17:00 OBS5: Precipitation Monitoring PO4 15:45 Sofia III 16:15–17:00 Author-in- Wednesday, 09 September 2015 Poster introductions attendance SPS3: Big Data During oral session 17:15 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 ECAM2: Impact-based warnings During oral session 14:00 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 ECAM5/ASI20: Weather Risks to Transport During oral session 12:45 Kyoto 16:15–17:00 ASI11: Hydrological & met. Forecast models During oral session 10:15 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 ASI12/OBS2: Sub-kilometre scale precipitation During oral session 12:30 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 ASI13: Urban climate PO9 16:00 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 ASI14: Atm. Composition & pollution During oral session 12:30 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 CL1: Climate monitoring PO8 16:00 Kyoto 16:15–17:00 CL7: Synoptic Climatology PO7 16:00 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 OBS3/ ASI19: Airborne Meteorology PO9 16:00 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 Author-in- Thursday, 10 September 2015 Poster introductions attendance ECAM3: Verification PO12 16:00 Kyoto Friday ASI16: Energy meteorology – part I PO11 16:00 Sofia III 16:15–17:00 CL2: Spatial climatology During oral session 10:15 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 CL6: Global and regional reanalyses PO10 16:00 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 CL10: Copernicus CC Service PO10 16:00 Sofia II 16:15–17:00 CE1: Media and Communication During oral session 12:50 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 OBS1/ASI8: Atmospheric measurements During oral session 12:45 Sofia III 16:15–17:00 NWP2: Numerical aspects in NWP models During oral session 09:00/10:15 Kyoto 16:15–17:00 NWP3: Data assimilation During oral session 18:15 Vitosha 16:15–17:00 NWP4: Probab. & ensemble forecasting During oral session 12:45 Kyoto 16:15–17:00 Author-in- Friday, 11 September 2015 Poster introductions attendance ECAM3: Verification Thursday 10:30–11:30 ASI4: Parametr. of small-scale processes PO16 10:30 Vitosha 10:30–11:30 ASI16: Energy meteorology – part II PO14 10:30 Sofia III 10:30–11:30 CL9/CE7: Climate Services partnerships PO13 10:30 Sofia II 10:30–11:30 NWP6: MesoVICT PO15 10:30 Kyoto 10:30–11:30

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 6 General Information

Coffee breaks & lunch Icebreaker reception Coffee breaks Location: Conference foyer Date: Monday, 07 September 2015, 19:15–21:00

Free coffee/tea will be served during the coffee breaks. The coffee station is located in the foyer of the conference area. Announcement of

poster award recipient Monday, 07 September 2015 Location: Conference foyer 10:30–11:00 and 16:00–17:00 Date: Friday, 11 September 2015, 13:15–14:00

Tuesday, 08 September 2015 10:30–11:00 and 16:00–17:00 Publications

Paper publication in Wednesday, 09 September 2015 Advances in Science and Research 10:30–11:00 and 16:00–17:00

Authors of contributions that have been accepted to one Thursday, 10 September 2015 of the EMS & ECAM 2015 session topics are invited to 10:30–11:00 and 16:00–17:00 submit short conference papers to the open access journal Advances in Science and Research (http://www.adv-sci-res.net/volumes.html). Friday, 11 September 2015 Details will be sent to the authors by email after the 10:30–11:30 conference.

Lunch

Upload of presentations Monday–Friday, 13:00–14:00 After the conference, you have the option to upload your oral presentation or your poster as Power Point or PDF Drinks and meals are served in the restaurants of the file for online publication alongside your abstract. This conference hotel, i.e. shall give all interested participants the chance to revisit your contribution. . Ambassador restaurant . Captain Cook Restaurant Details will be sent to the authors by email after the . Happy Sushi conference. . Candy Club

In addition, bistros, restaurants and supermarkets are available in walking distance.

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria www.advances-in-science-and-research.net Advances in Science & Research

The Open Access Proceedings of the European Meteorological Society (EMS)

Managing Editor | Martina Junge

Advances in Science and Research (ASR) is the international open access proceedings journal of the European Meteorological Society (EMS). ASR publishes advances in science, profession and application of meteorology, climatology and related fields presented at the Annual Meetings of the EMS as well as at the European Conferences on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) and on Applied Climatology (ECAC). All manuscripts submitted to ASR undergo a rigorous peer-review organised by the Programme and Science Committee (PSC).

Abstracted/Indexed Indexed in ADS and GeoRef Included in Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) Long-term e-archived in Portico and CLOCKSS

Deadline for submissions: 15 January 2016 Authors of contributions that have been accepted to one of the EMS & ECAM 2015 session topics are invited to submit short conference papers. Details will be sent to the authors by email after the conference. 8 Exhibition

Exhibition

Monday, 12:00–18:00 and Tuesday–Thursday, 09:00–18:00

Please use the opportunity to visit the exhibition in the conference foyer (the exhibitors are listed in alphabetical order):

American Meteorological Society 45 Beacon Street Boston, MA 02108 United States http://ametsoc.org/

The American Meteorological Society promotes the development and dissemination of information and education on the atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences and the advancement of their professional applications. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of more than 14,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes eleven atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic journals – in print and online –, sponsors more than 12 conferences annually, and offers numerous programs and services.

Kipp & Zonen B.V. P.O. Box 507 2600 AM Delft Netherlands http://www.kippzonen.com

Kipp & Zonen is the leading specialist in the measurement of solar and sky radiation, from the ultraviolet to the far infrared. We offer a complete range of high quality instrumentation and accessories, from reliable cost-effective products to the best performance available. Our equipment is used in meteorology, climate and solar energy networks around the world. Furthermore our expertise and close links with the scientific community have led to high-end solutions for the measurement of atmospheric properties such as stratospheric Ozone, UV Spectra and evapo-transpiration.

The USB flash drives which contain the programme and the abstracts of the conference are sponsored by Kipp & Zonen.

Meteorological Technology World Expo Brussels Brussels Expo, Hall 3 Belgieplein - 1 - Place de Belgique 1020 Brussels Belgium http://www.meteorologicaltechnologyworldexpo.com

Meteorological Technology World Expo Brussels, Belgium, 13th to 15th October, is the largest exhibition of meteorological technology in the World, with 170 exhibitors demonstrating the very latest in observation and prediction technologies for better environmental monitoring, weather forecasting and business decision-making. UKIP Media & Events is an established and rapidly growing trade fair organiser and publisher of journals in niche technology areas. Come and see us to discuss your free magazine subscription, or participation at our next Expo.

Scintec AG Wilhelm-Maybach-Strasse 14 72108 Rottenburg Germany http://www.scintec.com

Scintec produces the most advanced and comprehensive line of wind and temperature profilers in SODAR, RADAR and RASS technology,as well as optical SCINTILLOMETERS for the measurement of boundary layer turbulence and heat flux. Continuing scientific innovation, outstanding product design and customer oriented philosophy has made Scintec a global leader in this field. Please come and visit us at our booth.

The conference writing pads for participants are sponsored by Scintec.

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

09:30–10:30 13:00 11:00–13:00 10:30–11:00

Multihazard earlywarningsystems:WhatcanEuropean citizensexpectfrom Michael Staudinger Predicting highimpactweatherusingECMWFproducts Fernando Prates Observing InitialConditionsandHydro-MeteorologicalImpacts–howdowe Stuart Goldstraw The WMOcontributiontowardsminimizingrisksfromweather,climate,hydrologicaland Deon Terblanche Chair: HorstBöttger STRATEGIC LECTURES COFFEE BREAK Horst Böttger,EMSPresident OPENING BYTHEEMSPRESIDENTANDWELCOMEADDRESSES CLOSING their NHMSs? both requirementsaremetinthecomingyears? related environmentalevents Alexander MacDonald,AMSPresident HMEI –TheAssociationofHydro-MeteorologicalEquipmentIndustry Robert Mureau,PRIMET Ingeborg Auer,ClimateProgramme Will Lang,ECAM Academician StefanVodenicharov,PresidentoftheBulgarianAcademySciences Lilyana Pavlova,MinisterofRegionalDevelopmentandPublicWorks,Bulgaria Ivelina Vassileva,MinisteroftheEnvironmentandWater,Bulgaria Paulina Valtchanova,AMCPresident,BULATSA Ekaterina Batchvarova,BMSPresident Hristomir Branzov,NIMH-BASDirector MONDAY, 07SEPTEMBER2015 , ECMWF , UKMetOffice , WorldMeteorologicalOrganization OPENING SESSION,

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Room: SofiaII ensure well astheaudienceforquestions,statements,discussions. Short introductorystatementswillbegivenbyinvitedspeakers.Thefloorthenopentopanellists as ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ definition by almost is “messy”. – sources non-traditional, often and multiple, from and volume in huge – Data” “Big meteorologists. for problems and opportunities both presents available now information of amounts growing ever- The subject. this in world meteorological the in growing now is Interest hype? it is or real it is – Data Big

And whatspecialtechniquesandsystemsarewedevelopingtodoallofthis? What canweinferfromthevastamountofnon-meteorologicaldata? relevant data? How canwebesurethatforecastersanddecision-makersidentifyhaveaccesstothemost Can itimproveouranalysesandnowcasts? So howdoweensurethattherightinformationisusedinforecastingprocess? “ BIG DATA WEDNESDAY, 09SEPTEMBER2015 PUBLIC GREATDEBATE, ” INMETEOROLOGY:OPPORTUNITIES Robert Mureau AND CHALLENGES Ken Mylne Will Lang more tobeconfirmed INVITED SPEAKERS

Room: SofiaII MODERATOR 17:00–18:30 , UKMetOffice , UKMetOffice , Meteogroup

14:00–15:30 See page14. the dedication exceptional international networking of Broadcast with Meteorologists. growth promoting their and to contributing continuously the Society, of activities time. Communication and first Media pursuit the relentless of the her for for honoured is given Cegnar Tanja is and established been The Young a give 2015, 11:45inSessionOBS1/ASI8.Seepage13. will September 10 Thursday, Miguel on Lecture Award scale. Scientist regional the at improved links with turbidity that and modeling its impact on lake-atmosphere interactions work quality water his of for measurements awarded Evora. is of University He Potes, Miguel is 2015 awardee The scientists. young in excellence acknowledge to The be announcedonFriday,11September2015,13:15. will 2015 award the of winner The book. programme on display in the foyer and printed at the back of this differences between radiative forcings? efficacy understand to used be analysis feedback poster DLR the Dietmüller, with S. Germany, Rieger, award Oberpfaffenhofen, V. the Ponater, of M. are winners 2014 The Meetings. the Annual at EMS presented posters quality good highlight to The Awards EMS the support. conferences. by expenses selected Committee. Forthisyear’srecipientsseepage13. travel are as recipients EMS-co-sponsored given The is award at The young and students scientists outstanding of participation Young Scientist Travel Awards Outstanding Poster Award EMS Outstanding Contribution Award EMS Young Scientist Award TUESDAY, 08SEPTEMBER2015

is presented annually presented is has been established been has r gvn o support to given are AWARDS SESSION, The poster is poster The has recently

Room: SofiaII Can AWARD CEREMONIES EMS SILVERMEDAL HARRY OTTENPRIZE EMS TROMPAWARD EMS MEDIAAWARDS EMS OUTSTANDINGCONTRIBUTIONAWARD EMS YOUNGSCIENTISTAWARD 2014 POSTERAWARD YOUNG SCIENTISTTRAVELAWARDS as o omnct te cec o meteorology of science the communicate to ways recognition of best projects that explore new and acknowledge effective in given – Award Communication and Outreach the to –, forecasts weather given of communication in practice – Award Forecast The adto s ie b Aan air Mr dtis see details More page 17. Ratier. Alain by given is Laudatio The available. freely data meteorological make efforts to pioneering and community meteorological outstanding service to the European and international his for Eliassen Anton to awarded is 2015 Medal Silver The Europe. in contributions meteorology of development distinguished the to made has that person The 16. page see September details more For 07 Kyoto. Room 14:00, 2015, Monday, on ideas their present will finalists Three forward. society move further can way practical a in meteorology how on ideas new with forward come to groups and individuals encourages The 15. page see details more For Kyoto. Room 18:45, 2015, September 08 Tuesday, on work his on presentation a give will He Heusinkveld. G. Bert is recipient first The honours outstanding achievement in biometeorology. The awardees 2015seepage14. the on details For public. the to science the explains that work professional Award that outstanding highlight to the Journalist aims – and fields related and EMS Tromp Award Harry Otten Prize for Innovation in Meteorology EMS Silver Medal EMS MediaAwards

is given for the first time and time first the for given is s rsne anal t a to annually presented is nld te V Weather TV the include Awards 13

Young Scientist Award

The EMS Young Scientist Award 2015 is awarded to Miguel Potes from the University of Evora, Portugal, for his publication: "Satellite remote sensing of water turbidity in Alqueva reservoir and implications on lake modelling", M. Potes, M. J. Costa and R. Salgado; Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623–1633, 2012, www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/1623/2012/, doi:10.5194/hess-16-1623- 2012. Citation: Miguel Potes' work links improved measurements of water quality and turbidity with modeling its impact on lake-atmosphere interactions at the regional scale. Miguel will give a Young Scientist Award Lecture in session OBS1/ASI8 Atmospheric measurements from the local to the regional scale: Concepts, new technologies and scientific progress: How lakes influence the local atmospheric circulation on Thursday, 10 September 2015 at 12:15 in room Sofia III.

Young Scientist Travel Awards

Anastasia Bleta and Panagiotis Nastos EMS2015-44: Present and Future Human Thermal Bioclimatic Conditions and Impacts on Cardiovasclar Admissions in Crete Island, Greece

Tuesday, 08 September 2015, 17:45–18:00 Session ASI7/CE6, room: Kyoto See page 37.

Hajnalka Breuer and Júlia Göndöcs EMS2015-46: Numerical study on parameterized and explicit cumulus convection resulted precipitation dependence on initial soil moisture content at 5 km horizontal resolution

Thursday, 10 September 2015 Author-in-attendance time: 16:15–17:00 Poster number: P76 (Sofia I) Session NWP2 See page 83.

Markel García-Díez et al. EMS2015-20: A study of the Urban Heat Island of Barcelona using a fast urban climate model

Wednesday, 09 September 2015, 14:00–14:15 Session ASI13, room: Vitosha See page 55.

Yasar Burak Oztaner et al. EMS2015-37: Impact of Land-Use Types and Urban Canopy Structure on Urban Heat Island via High Resolution WRF Modeling: Istanbul Case Study

Thursday, 10 September 2015, 10:00–10:15 Session: NWP2, room: Kyoto See page 76.

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ntaie a bodnd h rah f scientific of many enhanced and ways reach novel in meteorology with engage the to public general the broadened enabled meteorology, has initiative outstanding This Kingdom. United the in public general the by science climate and weather of understanding and fascination of meteorology thereby enhancing the WAM has found new ways to communicate the beauty Fry Richardson’sForecastFactory. Lewis of recreation a and clinic, weather a exhibition, fair, weather music recitals, a Climate Change Question Time, an art a included These Hall. Town Reading in events of variety wide a in part take to people thousand a disciplines about saw 2012 in festival first The events. different successful these very three held has WAM foundation its Since bringing interact. in inherent and arts the meteorology/climate science to together explore the possibilities bringing festival a for idea the Music (WAM) the to presented is The EMS Outreach & Communication Award 2015 o te wr, e o te nre wr rcie from received countries outsideofEurope. were entries the of ten Award, the for submitted were forecasts weather TV of clips video 19 weather maritime the of relation betweentheatmosphere andtheocean. aspects in complex explain to specialized likes He television). forecasts. is public Barreiro (Spanish Martín TVE Española Televisión Televisión at at presenter Galicia TVG and (Galician public meteorologist forecaster television). In weather 2010 he a joined numerical as and centre, meteorological and regional a MeteoGalicia, operational as worked Santiago he 2010 of to 2002 University From (2003). the holds Compostela de from and Physics 1977, in Degree born a was Carreira, Barreiro Martín poised, was conditions confident, andthorough. weather of presentation Spain. of His coast western the on strengths wave and heights affecting conditions meteorological between link the of explanation scientific good a also was There tides. red and ocean the about information included it The entry went beyond a “normal” weather forecast, as to The EMSTVWeatherForecastAward2015 Session onThursday,10September2015 upcoming projects during the soloist. She will present the WAM project and talk about oratorio and recitalist a performed as abroad and Britain has Great in and mezzo-soprano a as trained She London. of University the from Performance Operatic in BA a in Diploma a and Reading of holds University the from Music Director, WAM Stott, Thomet Pierrette challenges involvedinforecastingit. people’s appreciation of its effects on our lives and the Martín Barreiro I 21 Perte hmt tt devised Stott Thomet Pierrette 2011 In . , Spain. UK FestivalofWeather,Artsand Media & Communication . is presented is programme for Central America and the Middle east. geological consultant at the UN Technical Assistance a was he 1955 to 1950 from Egypt; Cairo, in University became aProfessorofGeologyattheKingSaud he 1947 in meteorology; and physiology studied he war, the After Headquarters. MacArthur’s of section During WorldWarIIhebecameinvolvedindeDutch University, Leyden worked as an exploration geologist for oil companies. at geography The Netherlands,andafterhereceivedhisPhD and geology studied He 1909. March on born was Tromp W. Solco Who wasSolcoWalleTromp? CE6 HumanBiometeorology. on presentation 08 September 2015 at the EMS & ECAM session ASI7/ a give will awardee The Meeting. 1,000 andtravelexpensesto attend the EMS Annual $US receive will awardee The Bulgaria. Sofia, in 2015 Annual Meeting and 12thECAM on 08 September The prizewillbepresentedduringthe15thEMS Atmospheres, 2014. Research: in theJournalofGeophysical published use land urban by influenced as island heat urban with the paper winner is award 2015 Tromp EMS The year. this time first the for given is and The EMSTromp award hasrecentlybeestablished all livingbeings? climate impactthewell-beingof humans. ItprovidesanswerstothequestionHowdoesweatherand and science studyingtheinteractions between atmosphericprocessesandliving organisms – plants, animals this awardwith the intentiontopromotebiometeorologyinEurope.Biometeorologyisaninterdisciplinary The TrompFoundation(Foundationfor Biometeorological Research), the legacy of Solco W. Tromp, is funding EMS TROMPAWARDFORANOUTSTANDINGACHIEVEMENT Spatial variability of the Spatial variability Rotterdam Bert G. Heusinkveld IN BIOMETEOROLOGY , nominated

,

As a person, Solco Tromp was very courteous, full of energy productive remarkable continued tothetimeofhisdeathin1993. His geography. science ormedical we mayrefer toasbiomedical bibliography ontopics,which achieved asubstantial already he andan 1953, By talent. intellect organisational excellent alogical mind, scientific highly a qualities, distinct three combined Tromp Solco 1976. until secretary was he which of Biometeorology for the same year he founded the International Society In Leyden. in centre Research Biometeorological the In 1955, he switched to biometeorology and founded Fudto fr imtoooia Rsac) The aim of the Foundation is to Research). promote Biometeorology. Biometeorological for (Foundation his legacywasallocatedtoThe Tromp Foundation of part died he After career. geology his after years became He life. the main promoter of biometeorology for many for zest great a with and humour The Harry Otten Prize for Innovation in Meteorology

Who will win the prize? for the best innovative idea in meteorology

The Harry Otten Prize is a prize of 25000 Euro that will be awarded every two years for the best innovative idea in Meteorology.

The jury has selected three finalists who will present their ideas during a session on Monday, 7 September, at the meeting of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) in Sofia, Bulgaria.

Afterwards the jury will decide on the prize which will be presented to the winner during the award ceremony on Tuesday, 8 September.

The finalists are: Alexandros Charalambides, Rogiros Tapakis PROGNOSIS Olivier Boucher Low-cost humidity observations for weather prediction from automated detection of aviation contrails Tim Hewson, Florian Pappenberger Flash Flood Prediction using Current-Generation Global Models

Do you have your own great idea? The next Harry Otten Prize round will be in 2017. For additional information please see www.harry-otten-prize.org and groundbreaking. His view to make data freely available wasvisionary public understandingofmeteorological information. has greatlyhelpedto enhance freely available the pioneering effortstomakemeteorological data Being a strong advocate of free data policy, his in Europe. Protocols for thereductionofairpollutionemissions Range Transboundary Air Pollution and its ensuing technical underpinning of the Convention of Long the providing and findings important very of range resulting ina of airpollutantssincetheearly1970s, to contributions work onthemodellingoflongrangetransport scientific significant environmental meteorology through his pioneering made has an outstandingresearcher, is he Anton Eliassen EUMETSAT andWMO. Meteorological Infrastructure withinECMWF,ECOMET, has contributed to the development of the European to outstanding integrate leadership andcapabilities the international meteorological community.His European meteorological organisationsandin the meteorological has hadaleadingrole in the governance of most shaping landscape in Europe over the past decades. He on influence great Anton undoubtedly hadandhasa Eliassen 2015. the Laureate, willbeheld on Tuesday, 08 September pollution, weather forecasting and free data” by Silver MedalLecture “Meteorology and Society: Air The Silver Medalceremony, whichincludesthe make meteorologicaldatafreelyavailable. of meteorological information through his effort to increasing and enhancing the public understanding Trans-boundary Air Pollution, and his major role in for the success of the Convention on Long-Range meteorological community that was e.g. central outstanding servicetotheEuropeanandinternational scientific his for honoured contribution to environmental meteorology, his is He 2015. Medal Silver chosen The European Meteorological Society(EMS)has Prestigious awardforoutstandingservicetotheEuropeanandinternationalmeteorologicalcommunity Anton Eliassen and pioneeringeffortstomakemeteorologicaldatafreelyavailable. asLaureate of theEMS EMS SILVERMEDALLECTURE2015

France in 1983, on modelling of theupperocean onmodelling France in1983, Mr Ratier’s career began in R&D activities at Météo- Programmes at theFrench SpaceAgency(CNES). subsequently Associate Director for Earth Observation Mr RatierwasaProgramme 1996 Manager and EUMETSAT between 1996 and 2004. From 1987 to Development and Deputy Director-General in Previously, Mr Ratier was Director of Programme he wasDeputyDirector-GeneralofMétéo-France. and 2011, Between2004 General on01August 2011. Mr Ratier was appointed EUMETSAT’s fourth Director- Director-General. be givenbyAlainRatier,EUMETSAT The laudationwill Laudation Graßl (Germany)andPeterLynch(Ireland). Republic), Tim Palmer (United Kingdom), Hartmut Kingdom), Jean-François Geleyn (France/Czech Burridge (United (Sweden/Germany), David (Germany), RenéMorin(France),Lennart Bengtsson annually. Previous recipientsincludeKarinLabitzke of meteorology in Europe. The Award is presented honour important contributions tothedevelopment to in 2008 Medalwasestablished The EMSSilver EMS SilverMedal 1981. Ratier graduated from the École Polytechnique in and air-seainteractions and on data assimilation.Mr 18 Side meetings

Side meetings

Sunday, 06 September 2015 Wednesday, 09 September 2015 SPS6: Successful Session Chairing: some useful SIM2: Communicating Climate Change (by invitation hints and exchange of best practices only) Contact: Ewen McCallum and Martina Junge Contact: Tanja Cegnar 18:00–19:00 09:00–13:00 & 17:00–18:30 Room: Madara Room: Silhouette Hall (19th floor)

SIM5: WMO Joint Working Group of Forecast Monday, 07 September 2015 Verification Research (by invitation only) SIM1: Harry Otten Board meeting (by invitation only) Contact: Marion Mittermaier 09:00–18:30 Contact: Richard Anthes Room: Elena 09:30–13:00 Room: Elena SIM7: Programme and Science Committee 2016 (by invitation only) Tuesday, 08 September 2015 Contact: Martina Junge 19:00–20:30 SIM1: Harry Otten Board meeting (by invitation only) Room: Silhouette Hall (19th floor) Contact: Richard Anthes 09:00–12:30 Room: Elena Friday, 11 September 2015

SIM6: MesoVICT project committee meeting (public) SIM4: UERRA WP3 (by invitation only) Contact: Marion Mittermaier Contact: A. K. Kaiser-Weiss 13:30–15:30 17:00–19:00 Room: Elena Room: Elena

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

20 Session index

Session index

Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) ECAM1 oral programme page 23 | poster programme page 29 ECAM2/CE3 oral programme page 52 | poster programme page 62 ECAM3 oral programme page 86 | poster programme page 91 ECAM5/ASI20 oral programme page 52 | poster programme page 62 ECAM6 oral programme page 24 | poster programme page 29

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions (ASI) ASI1/NWP1 oral programme page 25 | poster programme page 30 ASI2 oral programme page 25 | poster programme page 30 ASI3 oral programme page 35 | poster programme page 44 ASI4 oral programme page 87 | poster programme page 92 ASI5 oral programme page 35 | poster programme page 44 ASI6 oral programme page 36 | no posters ASI7/CE6 oral programme page 36 | poster programme page 44 ASI9 oral programme page 26 | poster programme page 31 ASI10 oral programme page 37 | poster programme page 45 ASI11 oral programme page 54 | poster programme page 63 ASI12/OBS2 oral programme page 54 | poster programme page 63 ASI13 oral programme page 55 | poster programme page 63 ASI14 oral programme page 55 | poster programme page 64 ASI15 oral programme page 38 | poster programme page 45 ASI16 oral programme page 70, 88 | poster programme page 78, 93

Climate (CL) Monitoring climate and climate change CL1 oral programme page 57 | poster programme page 65 CL2 oral programme page 71 | poster programme page 79 CL3 oral programme page 39 | poster programme page 46 Understanding processes and climate change CL4 oral programme page 27 | poster programme page 32 CL5 oral programme page 39 | poster programme page 46 CL6 oral programme page 72 | poster programme page 79 CL7 oral programme page 57 | poster programme page 66 Research and services for socio-economic sectors CL9/CE7 oral programme page 89 | poster programme page 94 CL10 oral programme page 72 | poster programme page 80

Communication and Education (CE) CE1 oral programme page 74 | poster programme page 81 CE5 oral programme page 41 | poster programme page 48

Measurements and Observations (OBS) OBS1/ASI8 oral programme page 59, 75 | poster programme page 82 OBS3/ASI19 oral programme page 59 | poster programme page 67 OBS4 oral programme page 42 | poster programme page 49 OBS5 oral programme page 42 | poster programme page 49

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) NWP2 oral programme page 76 | poster programme page 83 NWP3 oral programme page 76 | poster programme page 83 NWP4 oral programme page 77 | poster programme page 84 NWP6 oral programme page 90 | poster programme page 95

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Conference Programme – Monday 21

Monday, 07 September 2015

Opening Session I Room Sofia II Opening by the EMS President and Welcome Addresses

see also page 10

09:30–10:30 09:30–10:30

10:30 Coffee Break 10:30

Strategic Lectures I Room Sofia II

see also page 10

11:00–13:00 11:00–13:00

13:00 Lunch Break 13:00

Room Sofia II Sofia III Kyoto Vitosha Room

ECAM1: From ASI1/NWP1: Dynamical Observations and NWP CL4: Climate change meteorology and to Warnings and Impact detection, assessment of Harry Otten Prize: predictability of high Mitigation trends, variability and Presentations by finalists impact weather

15:50: Poster Introduction extremes

14:00–16:00 14:00–16:00 ECAM1, ECAM6 15:30: Poster Introduction

P01: Poster Introduction P02: Poster Introduction 16:00 16:00 CL4 ASI2

Poster Session & Coffee Break I Foyer and Room Sofia I

Poster authors in attendance time for the following sessions : ECAM programme group: ECAM1 (P1 - P5), ECAM6 (P10, P11)

ASI programme group: ASI1/NWP1 (P12 - P16), ASI2 (P17 - P21), ASI9 (P33 - P39)

16:15–17:00 16:15–17:00 CL programme group: CL4 (P85 - P98) ECAM1 continued 17:00 ECAM6: ASI2: Dynamics, ASI9: Atmospheric Understanding and monsoon circulations hazards Improving the Socio- CL4 continued and teleconnections on Economic Benefits of anomalous weather over

18:45: Poster Introduction 17:00–19:00 17:00–19:00 Forecasts East Asia 18:45: Joint Discussion: ECAM1 & ECAM6

19:15 Ice breaker in exhibition area and foyer 19:15

In the detailed daily programme (on page 22 to 32) the related ECAM, CL, and ASI sessions are listed in the following order: ECAM1, ECAM6, ASI1/NWP1, ASI2, ASI9, CL4.

Poster display time Monday to Wednesday Authors are kindly asked to put up their posters as soon as possible within the allocated display time in order to enable the conference participants to view their posters at any time within the display days, and to take them down on Wednesday evening between 18:00–19:30. Posters that have not been removed within this dismantling time will be removed and disposed off.

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

22 Oral Conference Programme – Monday

Special Events OralsMonday SPS1 Opening Session SPS4 Harry Otten Prize for Innovation in Meteorology: Lecture Room: Sofia II Presentations by Finalists

09:30–10:30 Conveners: Richard Anthes; Dennis Schulze Chairperson(s): Horst Böttger Lecture Room: Kyoto

09:30–10:30: 14:00–15:27 Opening by the EMS President and Welcome Addresses Chairperson(s): Rick Anthes

10:30 Coffee break 14:00–14:10: Introduction Strategic Lectures 14:10–14:30: EMS2015-639 11:00–11:30: Methodology for predicting solar irradiance Deon Terblanche, WMO Atmospheric Research and Rogiros Tapakis, Alexandros G. Charalambides Environment Branch, Director PROGNOSIS, Greece The WMO contribution towards minimizing risks from weather, climate, hydrological and related 14:30–14:35: environmental events Discussion

11:30–12:00: 14:35–14:55: EMS2015-638 Stuart Goldstraw, Met Office Probing the upper troposphere by watching aircraft Observing Initial Conditions and Hydro-Meteorological Olivier Boucher Impacts - how do we ensure both requirements are met Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UPMC / in the coming years? CNRS, Paris, France

12:00–12:30: 14:55–15:00: Fernando Prates, ECMWF Discussion Predicting high impact weather using ECMWF products 15:00–15:20: EMS2015-640 12:30–13:00: Predicting Flash Floods using Current- Michael Staudinger, ZAMG Generation Global Models Multihazard early warning systems: What can European Tim Hewson, Florian Pappenberger citizens expect from their NHMSs? ECMWF, UK

Closing 15:20–15:25: Discussion END OF ORAL PROGRAMME SPS1 15:25–15:27: Conclusion

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME SPS4

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

Oral Conference Programme – Monday 23

Applications of Meteorology

OralsMonday ECAM1 From Observations and 15:20–15:35: EMS2015-427 Recent developments in high-impact weather NWP to Warnings and Impact forecasting capabilities within the Met Office Mitigation Rob Neal, Jo Robbins, Helen Titley, Becky Hemingway, Rutger Dankers, Ken Mylne Convener: Ken Mylne Co-Conveners: P. Davies; Yong Wang; 15:35–15:50: EMS2015-623 Bernhard Reichert Flooding from Intense Rainfall Lecture Room: Sofia II Sarah Dance, Hannah Cloke, Sue Ballard University of Reading, Reading, UK 14:00–16:00 15:50–16:00: Chairperson(s): Bernhard Reichert Joint Poster Introductions for sessions ECAM1 and ECAM6 - 1 slide 14:00–14:05: Introduction 16:00 Coffee break

14:05–14:20: EMS2015-214 17:00–19:00 Seamless probabilistic forecasts on high impact weather for civil protection Chairperson(s): Ken Mylne Yong Wang, Martin Suklitsch, Clemens Wastl, Andre Simon, Mihaly Szucs 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-592 Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Prediction of weather related fire brigade operations on Department of Forecasting Models, Vienna, Austria the basis of nowcasting data ([email protected]) Tobias Pardowitz, Tobias Heisterkamp, Martin Göber, Uwe Ulbrich 14:20–14:35: EMS2015-524 Freie Universität Berlin, Institut f. Meteorologie, Berlin, FOGCAST: Probabilistic fog forecasting based on Germany ([email protected]), Hans- operational COSMO-DE model Ertel-Zentrum für Wetterforschung, Berlin, Germany Matthieu Masbou, Maike Hacker, Sabrina Wahl Deutscher Wetterdienst, Research and Development, 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-85 Offenbach am Main, Germany Assessing current capabilities and identifying areas of ([email protected]) improvement to flood risk guidance information provided by the Flood Guidance Statement. 14:35–14:50: EMS2015-404 Gavin Robbins The Ensemble-MOS of Deutscher Wetterdienst Flood Forecasting Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom Reinhold Hess, Jenny Glashoff, Bernhard K. Reichert ([email protected]) Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) 17:30–17:45: EMS2015-64 14:50–15:05: EMS2015-470 The potential of using model precipitation forecasts to The automated generation of weather warning predict floods on the example of the south of Western proposals as part of a decision support system for the Siberia weather warning service Marina Zdereva, Svetlana Sannikova, Natalya Guido Schröder, Bernhard K. Reichert, Dirk Khluchina Heizenreder Russian Federation ([email protected]) Siberian Regional Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach/Main, Germany Hydrometeorological Res. Institute City, Novosibirsk

15:05–15:20: EMS2015-273 17:45–18:45: Grid-Based Forecasting and the Role of the Weather Oral programme ECAM 6 Forecaster Michael Foley, Deryn Griffiths, Tennessee 18:45–19:00 Leeuwenburg, Gary Weymouth Joint Discussion: ECAM1 - ECAM6 Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia ([email protected]) END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ECAM1

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

24 Oral Conference Programme – Monday

ECAM6 Understanding and Improving

the Socio-Economic Benefits of OralsMonday Forecasts

Convener: Adriaan Perrels

Lecture Room: Sofia II

17:45–19:00

Chairperson(s): Adriaan Perrels

Assessing Socioeconomic Benefits of Weather and

Climate Services

17:45–18:00: EMS2015-634

Assessing Socioeconomic Benefits of Weather and

Climate Services

Adriaan Perrels

Finnish Meteorological Institute

18:00–18:15: EMS2015-282

Recent developments in the use of Numerical Weather

Outputs for agrometeorological services in Spain

(Agroasesor project)

Antonio Mestre Barcelo, Roser Botey, Andres Chazarra,

J.Vicente Moreno

AEMET, Madrid, Spain ([email protected])

18:15–18:30: EMS2015-452

Assessing the Economic Value of Forest Fire Danger

Forecasts in Germany

Thomas Schuhmacher

Deutscher Wetterdienst, München, Germany

([email protected])

18:30–18:45: EMS2015-635

Met Office European Windstorm Event response

services

Bernd Becker, Paul Maisey

Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

([email protected],

[email protected])

18:45–19:00:

Joint Discussion: ECAM1 & ECAM6

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ECAM6

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

Oral Conference Programme – Monday 25

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions OralsMonday ASI1/NWP1 Dynamical meteorology and ASI2 Dynamics, monsoon circulations predictability of high impact weather and teleconnections on anomalous Conveners: Thomas Frisius; Timothy Hewson weather over East Asia Co-Conveners: Frank Lunkeit; Alessandro Dell’Aquila; Convener: Yafei Wang Christian Franzke; Suzanne Gray Co-Conveners: Cholaw Bueh; Donghai Wang; Dehai Luo Lecture Room: Vitosha Lecture Room: Kyoto

14:00–15:40 17:00–19:00

Chairperson(s): Thomas Frisius Chairperson(s): Yafei Wang and Cholaw Bueh

14:00–14:15: EMS2015-99 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-262 How orography affects jet tilt biases in climate models Additive linearity of atmospheric responses to Arctic sea Felix Pithan, Ted Shepherd ice reduction and La Nina University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Shuanglin Li, Zhe Han, Yongqi Gao, Ping Zao United Kingdom ([email protected]) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS ([email protected]) 14:15–14:30: EMS2015-292 A climatology of poleward moisture transport by 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-260 southern hemisphere extra-tropical cyclones Impact of ENSO on the thermal condition over the Victoria Sinclair, Helen Dacre Tibetan Plateau University of Helsinki, Division of Atmospheric Yafei Wang, Xiaoyu Xu Sciences, Department of Physics, Helsinki, Finland Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State ([email protected]) key laboratory of severe weather, Beijing, China ([email protected]) 14:30–14:45: EMS2015-266 Modulation of the Semiannual Oscillation Associated 17:45–18:00: EMS2015-296 with Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events Influence of the Preceding Arctic Sea Ice and Eurasian Toshihiko Hirooka, Tsuyoshi Ohata, Nawo Eguchi Snow Cover Anomalies on the Urals Blocking during Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Kyushu Summer University, Fukuoka, Japan ([email protected] Ruonan Zhang, Weijing Li, Chenghu Sun u.ac.jp) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China ([email protected]), National Climate 14:45–15:00: EMS2015-212 Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, Winter precipitation variability during the western China atmospheric circulation in Central Poland Piotr Piotrowski, Joanna Jedruszkiewicz 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-162 Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Univeristy Large-Scale Circulation Features Typical of Wintertime of Lodz, Poland ([email protected]) Extensive and Persistent Low Temperature Events in East Asia 15:00–15:15: EMS2015-153 Cholaw Bueh, Zuowei Xie Eta vs Sigma: Forecasts of extreme precipitation in ICCES, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese parts of the Balkans in May 2014 using the Eta regional Academy of Sciences, China ([email protected]) model Dragana Marjanovic, Katarina Veljovic 18:15–18:30: EMS2015-165 University of Belgrade, Faculty of Physics, Serbia Precursory Signals of the Extensive and Persistent ([email protected]) Extreme Cold Events in China Jingbei Peng, Cholaw Bueh 15:15–15:25: The International Center for Climate and Environment Introduction to Posters Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI1/NWP1 ([email protected])

18:30–18:45: EMS2015-188 Different Types of Cold Vortex Circulations over Northeast China and Their Weather Impacts Zuowei XIE, Cholaw BUEH Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

26 Oral Conference Programme – Monday

18:45–19:00: EMS2015-52 17:45–18:00: EMS2015-324 The Positive North Atlantic Oscillation, European Identification of the large-scale processes that lead to Blocking and Middle East Snowstorm UK summer extreme hourly rain OralsMonday Yao Yao, Dehai Luo Adrian Champion, Richard Allan RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, China ([email protected]) United Kingdom ([email protected])

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI2 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-617 Risk assessment for natural hazards in Croatia Melita Percec Tadic, Branka Ivancan-Picek, Alica Bajic ASI9 Atmospheric hazards Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Research and Development Division, Zagreb, Croatia Convener: Fulvio Stel ([email protected]) Co-Conveners: Dario Giaiotti; Jordi Mazon; Sante Laviola 18:15–18:30: EMS2015-506 Lecture Room: Vitosha Ice and wet snow storms - vanishing or underestimated hazard in a global warming climate - the case from 17:00–19:00 Bulgaria Dimitar Nikolov Chairperson(s): Jordi Mason Sante Laviola National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria ([email protected]) 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-135 Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate 18:30–18:45: EMS2015-94 models: evaluation and future projections Lightning climatology over the Mediterranean Ondrej Lhotka, Jan Kyselý Vassiliki Kotroni, Konstantinos Lagouvardos Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Prague, Czech National Observatory of Athens, Institute of Republic ([email protected]), Global Change Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Research Centre CAS, Brno, Czech Republic, Faculty Athens, Greece ([email protected]) of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic 18:45–19:00: 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-267 Posters Short Presentation Flash heat and flash cold phenomena in the Iberian Peninsula since 1900 END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI9 Jordi Mazon, Jacob Cortés, Víctor Cortés, David Pino Technical University of Catalonia, Department of Applied Physics, Castelldefels - Barcelona, Spain ([email protected])

17:30–17:45: EMS2015-269 Transdisciplinary and multiscale reconstruction of the major flash floods Jordi Mazon, Laura Romero, David Pino, Josep Carles Balasch, Josep Lluis Ruiz-Bellet, Jordi Tuset, Mariano Barriendos Technical University of Catalonia, Department of Applied Physics, Castelldefels - Barcelona, Spain ([email protected]), Escola d’Enginyeria de Telecomunicació i Aerospacial de Castelldefels (EETAC), Universitat Politència de Catalunya · BarcelonaTech, Barcelona, Spain

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

Oral Conference Programme – Monday 27

Climate

15:15–15:30: EMS2015-244 OralsMonday Understanding processes and An Assessment of Historical and Future Hydro-Climatic Extremes over Key Watersheds within Western Canada climate change Barrie Bonsal, Charles Cuell Environment Canada, Saskatoon, Canada ([email protected])

CL4 Climate change detection, 15:30–15:45: EMS2015-144 assessment of trends, variability Simulated versus Satellite Retrieval Distribution Patterns of the Snow Water Equivalent over Southeast and extremes Europe Hristo Chervenkov NIMH - BAS Convener: Albert M.G. Klein Tank Co-Conveners: Monika Lakatos; Martine Rebetez 15:45–16:00: EMS2015-539 Lecture Room: Sofia III The snow disaster in the Rhodope mountains in march 2015 14:00–16:00 Anelia Gocheva, Krastina Malcheva, Dimitar Nikolov, Ilian Gospodinov Chairperson(s): Albert Klein Tank National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria ([email protected]) 14:00–14:15: EMS2015-511 Intercomparison of extra-tropical cyclones in nine 16:00 Coffee break reanalysis datasets Xiaolan L. Wang, Yang Feng, Rodney Chan, Victor 17:00–19:00 Isaac Environment Canada, Climate Research Division, Chairperson(s): Aryan van Engelen Toronto, Canada ([email protected]) 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-398 14:15–14:30: EMS2015-54 Local climate extremes and their linkage to large-scale High resolution reanalysis of historical storms in France atmospheric features. Part 1 - Ideas and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Michel Schneider, Jacques implementations Richon Arne Spekat, Wolfgang Enke Direction de la Climatologie, Météo-France, Toulouse, Climate and Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH, France ([email protected]) Potsdam, Germany ([email protected])

14:30–14:45: EMS2015-114 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-399 Detecting changes in the frequency of high impact Local climate extremes and their linkage to large-scale weather events using circulation analogue statistics atmospheric features. Part 2 – Lessons learned when Sabine Radanovics, Pascal Yiou describing convective systems with a statistical Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de methodology l’Environnement, IPSL, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Arne Spekat, Wolfgang Enke Gif-sur-Yvette, France ([email protected]) Climate and Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH, Potsdam, Germany ([email protected]) 14:45–15:00: EMS2015-379 European long lasting dry and wet phases and 17:30–17:45: EMS2015-373 atmospheric circulation - Variability and trends Generating percentile maps and bubble diagrams for Stephanie Hänsel, Wiebke Miketta, Andreas Hoy, Jörg extreme events using a grid data base solution Matschullat Peter Bissolli, Karsten Friedrich, Hermann Mächel, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Stefan Rösner, Andrea Kreis, Maya Körber Environmental Research Centre, Freiberg, Germany Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany ([email protected]) ([email protected])

15:00–15:15: EMS2015-34 Importance of a good density rain gauge network to better estimate weather radar measurements Fiorella Acquaotta, Alice Baronetti, Simona Fratianni, Diego Guenzi University of Turin, Earth Science, Turin, Italy ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

28 Oral Conference Programme – Monday

17:45–18:00: EMS2015-372 Recent climatic changes and relation to weather patterns in a trans-boundary mountainous region in OralsMonday Central Europe Andreas Hoy, Nils Feske, Petr Skalak, Petr Stepánek, Andreas Schmitt, Lenka Hájková, Lars Schöder, Anke Hahn, Petra Schneider, Wilfried Küchler, Pavel Zahradnícek Saxon State Agency for Environment, Agriculture and Geology, Dresden, Germany, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre, Freiberg, Germany ([email protected] freiberg.de)

18:00–18:15: EMS2015-568 Growing degree days variability in Central Europe in response to contemporary climate changes Agnieszka Wypych, Zbigniew Ustrnul, Agnieszka Sulikowska, Malgorzata Sliwinska, Frank-M. Chmielewski Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland

18:15–18:30: EMS2015-411 Heat waves and weather types persistency over Italy Marina Baldi, Giovanni Dalu CNR - Institute of Biometeorology, Roma, Italy ([email protected])

18:30–18:45: EMS2015-233 Recent changes in continentality indices over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and their association with atmospheric circulation Ahmed Kenawy, Matthew McCabe, Sayed M. Robaa King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia ([email protected])

18:45–19:00: EMS2015-138 Climatology of heavy crown snow loads in the present and projected future climate of Finland Ilari Lehtonen, Ari Venäläinen, Petri Hoppula, Matti Kämäräinen, Hilppa Gregow Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected])

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CL4

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Monday 29

Monday Applications of Meteorology

ECAM1 From Observations and ECAM6 Understanding and Posters NWP to Warnings and Impact Improving the Socio-Economic Mitigation Benefits of Forecasts

Convener: Ken Mylne Convener: Adriaan Perrels Co-Conveners: P. Davies, Yong Wang, Poster Area: Sofia I Bernhard Reichert Chairperson(s): Adriaan Perrels Poster Area: Sofia I Introduction: 15:50, Sofia II Chairperson(s): Yong Wang Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Introduction: 15:50, Sofia II Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Assessing Socioeconomic Benefits of Weather and Climate Services

P1: EMS2015-332 P10: EMS2015-129 Communicating Uncertainty: Differences in Analysis on the Intention to Purchase Index-based Perspectives of Weather Forecasters, Emergency Weather Insurance and Development for wind power Managers and the General Public weather insurance index Thomas Kox, Catharina Lueder Ki-Jun Park, In-Gyum Kim, Jeong-Yun Kim, Cheol- Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany Hong Park ([email protected]), Hans-Ertel-Centre for National Institute of Meteorological Research, Weather Research, Berlin, Germany Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea ([email protected])

P2: EMS2015-408 P11: EMS2015-184 The impact of a large water reservoir on local UrbaMet: Impact of weather on the efficiency of urban temperature by using the COSMO NWP model cleaning services. The case of Barcelona Zbynek Sokol, Kristyna Bartunkova, Lukas Pop Marc J. Prohom, Anna Miró, Jèssica Amaro Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Praha, Czech Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Area of Republic ([email protected]) Climatology, Barcelona, Spain ([email protected])

P3: EMS2015-497 END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ECAM6 Synoptic and Mesoscale Investigation of Ice Storms in Bulgaria Dimitar Nikolov, Uwe Ulbrich National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria ([email protected])

P4: EMS2015-593 Predictability of Winter Storm Damages Tobias Pardowitz, Robert Osinski, Uwe Ulbrich Freie Universität Berlin, Institut f. Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany ([email protected]), Hans- Ertel-Zentrum für Wetterforschung, Berlin, Germany

P5: EMS2015-221 The Decision Support System AutoWARN for the Weather Warning Service at DWD Bernhard Reichert, Jenny Glashoff, Reinhold Hess, Tamas Hirsch, Paul James, Christine Lenhart, Jan Paller, Cristina Primo, Wolfgang Raatz, Thorsten Schleinzer, Guido Schröder Deutscher Wetterdienst, Research and Development, Offenbach, Germany ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ECAM1

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

30 Poster Conference Programme – Monday

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions

Posters MondayPosters ASI1/NWP1 Dynamical ASI2 Dynamics, monsoon meteorology and predictability of circulations and teleconnections high impact weather on anomalous weather over East Asia Conveners: Thomas Frisius, Timothy Hewson Co-Conveners: Frank Lunkeit, Alessandro Dell’Aquila, Convener: Yafei Wang Christian Franzke, Suzanne Gray Co-Conveners: Cholaw Bueh, Donghai Wang, Dehai Luo Poster Area: Sofia I Poster Area: Sofia I Introduction: 15:30, Vitosha Chairperson(s): Prof. Shuanlin Li Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Introduction: 16:00, Vitosha

Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 P12: EMS2015-147

The role of blocking in the summer 2014 collapse of P17: EMS2015-391 Etesians over the eastern Mediterranean Evangelos Tyrlis, Filippos Tymvios, Christos Summer precipitation extremes in Yellow River Loop Valley and the possible cause Giannakopoulos, Jos Lelieveld Yina Diao The Cyprus Institute, Energy, Environment and Water Ocean university of China, College of Physical and Research Center (EEWRC), Nicosia, Cyprus Environmental Oceanography, China ([email protected]) ([email protected])

P13: EMS2015-176 P18: EMS2015-97 Variations in the mesosphere and the lower Positive Correlation between the Silk Road Pattern and thermosphere associated with stratospheric sudden the Meridional Displacement of the Upper-Level Mid- warming events Koki Iwao, Toshihiko Hirooka Latitude Jet Xiaowei Hong, Riyu Lu Department of Earth Planetary Science, Kyushu State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for University, Fukuoka, 812-8581 Japan Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid ([email protected]) Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese

P14: EMS2015-406 Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China Diagnosis and forecast verification of an intense

cyclogenesis during IOP 18 of HYMEX-SOP1 P19: EMS2015-96 M.Ángeles Picornell, Joan Campins, Agustí Jansà Break of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon in AEMET, DELEGACION TERRITORIAL EN ILLES Early August BALEARS, PALMA DE MALLORCA, Spain Ke Xu, Riyu Lu ([email protected]) State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for

P15: EMS2015-259 Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Development and verification of a non-hydrostatic Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, University of the global atmospheric model using horizontal spectral Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China element and vertical finite difference method on a cubed

sphere P20: EMS2015-186 Suk-Jin Choi, Kyung-Hee Seol, Song-You Hong Relationship between Summer Rainfalls over North Korea institute of atmospheric prediction systems, China and India and Its Genetic Analysis Seoul, Republic of Korea ([email protected]) Dawei Lin, Cholaw Bueh, Zuowei Xie

P16: EMS2015-486 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China ([email protected]), Factors affecting atmospheric vertical motions as University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, analyzed with a generalized omega equation and Open China IFS model Oleg Stepanyuk, Jouni Räisänen P21: EMS2015-263 University of Helsinki, Department of Physics, Finland, External forcing in modulating the relationship of the [email protected] Atlantic Multidecadal Variability with the Indian Summer

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI1/NWP1 Monsoon Feifei Luo, Yongqi Gao, Lea Svendsen, Noel

Keenlyside, Shuanglin Li

Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre and Climate

Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric

Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI2

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Monday 31

Monday ASI9 Atmospheric hazards P36: EMS2015-247 A case study of local floods in Añarbe area (Basque Country)

Convener: Fulvio Stel Joseba Egaña, Santiago Gaztelumendi, Virginia Posters Co-Conveners: Dario Giaiotti, Jordi Mazon, Palacio, Maialen Martija Sante Laviola Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet), Tecnalia - Poster Area: Sofia I Energy and Environment Division - Meteorology Area. Chairperson(s): Fulvio Stel Introduction: 18:45, Vitosha P37: EMS2015-488 Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Probabilistic Analysis of Daily Precipitation Maxima over Greece P33: EMS2015-45 Katerina K. Argyrouli, Elissavet G. Feloni, Panagiotis T. Trends and variability of joint distribution extreme Nastos climate indices over Greece Laboratory of Climatology & Atmospheric Environment, Iliana Polychroni, Panagiotis Nastos, Evangelos Faculty of Geology & Geoenvironment, University of Baltas Athens, University Campus, 157 84, Athens, Greece Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Faculty of Geology and Geoenviroment, P38: EMS2015-545 National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Impact analysis of atmospheric instability indices in University Campus, Athens, Greece, Department of forecasting process using data mining methods Water Resources and Environment, Faculty of Civil Nikolaos Kamperakis, Ioannis Matsangouras, Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Panagiotis Nastos, Ioannis Pytharoulis Athens, Greece Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, P34: EMS2015-82 University of Athens, University Campus, Athens, Hail characteristics in Northern Greece Greece Dimitrios Foris, Vasileios Foris Meteorological Applications Center, EL.G.A., P39: EMS2015-610 Thessaloniki, Greece ([email protected]) A persistent fog in Sofia in January 2014: Analysis by equivalent potential temperature P35: EMS2015-246 Anastasiya Stoycheva, Stilian Evtimov Analysis of an episode of heavy rainfall with flooding in National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Kadagua watershed. 29-31 January 2015 case Bulgaria ([email protected]) Joseba Egaña, Santiago Gaztelumendi, Olatz Principe, Maialen Martija END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI9 Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet), Tecnalia - Energy and Environment Division - Meteorology Area.

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria

32 Poster Conference Programme – Monday

Climate

Posters MondayPosters Understanding processes and P91: EMS2015-287 Temporal evolution of extreme temperature events in climate change the Czech Republic: A comparison among seasons Anna Valeriánová, Lenka Crhová, Eva Holtanová CL4 Climate change detection, CHMI, Climatology, Prague, Czech Republic assessment of trends, variability ([email protected])

and extremes P92: EMS2015-336 Heat Stress in South Romania in Connection to Large-

Scale Circulation Patterns Convener: Albert M.G. Klein Tank Simona Andrei, Dana Micu, Nicu Barbu, Carmen Co-Conveners: Monika Lakatos, Martine Rebetez Dragota Poster Area: Sofia I National Institute of R&D in Optoelectronics, Remote Chairperson(s): Albert Klein Tank Sensing Department, Magurele - Bucharest, Romania Introduction: 16:00, Sofia III ([email protected]) Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00

P93: EMS2015-388 P85: EMS2015-378 Assessment of impact indicators for extreme winter Consistency between observed and projected seasonal phenomena considering critical infrastructure trends in dry periods and heavy precipitation events in Andrea Vajda, Ilkka Juga, Matti Kämäräinen, Ilari Central Eastern Germany Lehtonen, Hilppa Gregow Stephanie Hänsel Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Service TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Centre, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected]) Environmental Research Centre, Freiberg, Germany

([email protected]) P94: EMS2015-400

Heavy precipitation in mid-elevation mountain systems P86: EMS2015-156 in Central Europe: case study of the Krüné Analysis of wind for the Carpathian Basin using hory/Erzgebirge (Czech Republic, Germany) homogenized and simulated data sets Jana Minárová, Miloslav Müller, Stephanie Hänsel, Csilla Peline Nemeth, Judit Bartholy, Rita Pongracz, Jörg Matschullat, Alain Clappier Kornelia Radics Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Geoinformation Service of HDF, Budapest, Hungary Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech ([email protected]) Republic ([email protected]), Laboratoire

Image, Ville, Environnement, National Center for P87: EMS2015-571 Scientific Research & University ofStrasbourg, France, Temporal and spatial variability of frost free period in TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Central Europe and its circulation background Environmental Research Centre, Germany Agnieszka Wypych, Agnieszka Sulikowska,

Malgorzata Sliwinska, Zbigniew Ustrnul, Frank-M. P95: EMS2015-394 Chmielewski Rainfall Characteristics and Trends for the Palestinian Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland Territories, 1951-2010

Kamal Zurba, Stephanie Hänsel P88: EMS2015-440 TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Assessment of meteorological drought in the Environmental Research Centre, Freiberg, Germany Carpathian Mountains region during 1961-2010 by ([email protected]) means of various indices

Marius-Victor Birsan, Sorin Cheval, Alexandru P96: EMS2015-227 Dumitrescu, Dana Magdalena Micu Intraseasonal differences of the stratospheric signal on Meteo Romania, Department of Climatology, Bucharest, temperature and precipitation anomalies over Europe Romania during wintertime

Adelaida Díaz-Durán, Encarna Serrano P89: EMS2015-343 Dept. Geophysics and Meteorology, Universidad Randomized MSSA in finding the significant oscillations Complutense de Madrid, Spain ([email protected]) in the 20th century reanalysis data

Teija Seitola, Johan Silen, Heikki Järvinen P97: EMS2015-566 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Relationship between precipitation and hydrological ([email protected]) extremes in the Polish Carpathians in the last several

decades P90: EMS2015-180 Agnieszka Wypych, Zbigniew Ustrnul Predictability of daily temperature series determined by Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland maximal Lyapunov exponent

Jan Skorepa, Jiri Miksovsky, Ales Raidl P98: EMS2015-641 Charles University in Prague, Department of Detection of main factors driving precipitation in Poland Atmospheric Physics, Czech Republic Joanna Wibig ([email protected]) University of Lodz, Poland ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Conference Programme – Tuesday 33

Tuesday, 08 September 2015

Room Sofia II Sofia III Kyoto Vitosha Room

OBS4: Meteorological ASI15: Phenology and observations from ground agrometeorology CL3: Historical and space-based Global (09:00-09:45) ASI5: Coastal climatology and paleo- Navigation Satellite meteorology and

climatology System 09:45: P03: Poster oceanography 09:00–10:30 09:00–10:30 Introduction ASI15, 10:15: Poster Introduction ASI7/CE6 and ASI13

10:30 Coffee Break 10:30

CL5: Climate prediction ASI5 continued and scenarios on OBS5: Recent Advances (11:00 - 12:00) ASI3: Meteorology, decadal to centennial in Climate (Services) ASI6: Modeling the climate and space timescales Ready Precipitation dynamics of coupled weather

12:45 poster Monitoring processes

11:00–13:00 11:00–13:00 introductions (12:00 - 13:00)

13:00 Lunch Break 13:00

Aw ard Ceremonies (room Sofia II): Young Scientist Travel Aw ards, 2014 Poster Aw ard, EMS Young Scientist Aw ard, EMS Outstanding Contribution Aw ard, EMS Media Aw ards

EMS Tromp Aw ard

Harry Otten Prize

14:00–15:30 14:00–15:30 EMS Silver Medal: Laudatio and Silver Medal Lecture

Detailed programme: see page 17.

P04: Poster Introduction P05: Poster Introduction P06 Poster Introduction 15:45 15:45 ASI10 and OBS5 CL3 ASI5 and CE5

Poster Session & Coffee Break I Foyer and Room Sofia I

Poster authors in attendance time for the following sessions: ASI programme group: ASI3 (P22 - P23), ASI5 (P24 - P28), ASI7/CE6 (P29 - P32), ASI10 (P40 - P46), ASI15 (P66 - P67)

CL programme group: CL3 (P82 - P84), CL5 (P99 - P108)

16:00–17:00 16:00–17:00 CE programme group: CE5 (P116 - P117) OBS programme group: OBS4 (P121 - P125), OBS5 (P126 - P127)

ASI10: Boundary-layer ASI7/CE6: Human CE5: Education physics and Biometeorology CL5 continued parameterizations in 17:00 GNSS Video weather and climate 18:45 EMS Tromp Aw ard

Presentation 17:00–19:00 17:00–19:00 models Presentation

Room Sofia II Sofia III Kyoto Vitosha Room

In the detailed daily programme (on page 34 to 49) the related ASI, CL, CE and OBS sessions are listed in the following order: ASI3, ASI5, ASI6, ASI7/CE6, ASI10, ASI15, CL3, CL5, CE5, OBS4, OBS5.

Poster display time Monday to Wednesday Authors are kindly asked to put up their posters as soon as possible within the allocated display time in order to enable the conference participants to view their posters at any time within the display days, and to take them down on Wednesday evening between 18:00–19:30. Posters that have not been removed within this dismantling time will be removed and disposed of

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 34 Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday

Special Events

SPS2 Award Ceremony

Lecture Room: Sofia II

14:00–15:35 Tuesday s Chairperson(s): Horst Böttger (EMS President)

Oral Conference awards and grants

14:00–14:20: EMS Young Scientist Travel Awards 2014 Outstanding Poster Award EMS Young Scientist Award EMS Media Awards: Outreach & Communication Award, TV Weather Forecast Award and the Journalist Award EMS Outstanding Contribution Award

Tromp Foundation

14:20–14:30: EMS Tromp Award: http://www.emetsoc.org/awards/other-awards/ems- tromp-award

Harry Otten Foundation

14:30–14:55: The Harry Otten Prize for Innovation in Meteorology will be presented by Harry Otten.

Silver Medal Award Ceremony

14:55–15:00: Laudation: Alain Ratier, EUMETSAT Director-General

15:00–15:05: Presentation of Silver Medal

15:05–15:35: Silver Medal Lecture by Anton Eliassen: "Meteorology and Society: Air pollution, weather forecasting and free data"

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME SPS2

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday 35

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions ASI3 Meteorology, climate and ASI5 Coastal meteorology and space weather: science, oceanography

applications and coordination Convener: Mario Marcello Miglietta Co-Conveners: Anna Maria Sempreviva; Manel Grifoll; Convener: Mauro Messerotti Silvio Gualdi Co-Conveners: David R. Jackson; Annika Seppälä; Lecture Room: Vitosha Suzy Bingham

Lecture Room: Kyoto 09:00–10:30 OralsTuesday

11:00–13:00 Chairperson(s): Silvio Gualdi

Chairperson(s): Mauro Messerotti 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-389 Ocean-atmosphere dynamics in a wind-jet region (Ebre 11:00–11:30: EMS2015-637 Delta shelf, NW Mediterranean Sea) Recent development of space weather activities within Manel Grifoll, Jorge Navarro, Laura Ràfols, Elena the World Meteorological Organization Pallarès, Manuel Espino, Ana Palomares, Pedro Jérôme Lafeuille Jimenez World Meteorological Organization (Switzerland) LIM/UPC, Barcelona, Spain ([email protected]), CIIRC, Barcelona, Spain 11:30–12:00: EMS2015-478 Space weather services at the Finnish Meteorological 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-315 Institute (solicited) Intense air-sea exchanges and heavy rainfall: impact of Tiera Laitinen, Ari Viljanen, Minna Palmroth, Kirsti the northern Adriatic SST Kauristie Paolo Stocchi, Silvio Davolio Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland ISAC - CNR, Bologna, Italy ([email protected]) ([email protected]) 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-265 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-89 Frontogenesis at the whole mesoscale in the West Application of NWP verification methods to verify space Mediterranean basin: from raincells to rainbands weather forecasts Jordi Mazon, David Pino David R. Jackson, Suzy Bingham, Ed Pope Technical University of Catalonia, Department of Met Office, Space Weather Research Group, Exeter, Applied Physics, Castelldefels - Barcelona, Spain United Kingdom ([email protected]) ([email protected])

12:15–12:45: EMS2015-279 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-535 Solar-cycle effect of energetic electron precipitation Reducing the uncertainty of near-shore wind seen in mesospheric ozone (solicited) estimations using wind lidars and mesoscale models Monika E. Andersson, Pekka T. Verronen, Craig J. Rogier Floors, Nikola Vasiljevic, Guillaume Lea, Rodger, Mark A. Clilverd, Annika Seppälä, Shuhui Alfredo Peña Wang, Bonar R. Carson DTU, Wind Energy, Department of Wind Energy, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Earth Observation Unit, Roskilde, Denmark ([email protected]) Helsinnki, Finland ([email protected]) 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-555 12:45–13:00: EMS2015-609 Numerical modeling and synoptic analysis of an intense The whole atmosphere response to century-scale coastal erosion event in Thessaly, Greece changes in the Earth’s magnetic field Panagiotis T. Nastos, Ioannis T. Matsangouras, Ingrid Cnossen, Hanli Liu, Hua Lu Konstantinos Lazogiannis, Serafim Poulos British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom Department of Geography and Climatology, Faculty of ([email protected]) Geology and Geoenviroment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, University Campus, GR 15784 END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI3 Athens, Greece ([email protected])

10:15–10:30: EMS2015-517 Vertical Profiles of Wind & Turbulence above the Southern North Sea: Micro- & Meso-Scale Model Performance and the Accuracy of Measurements Jens Tambke, John A. T. Bye, Gerald Steinfeld, Hauke Wurps, Jörg-Olaf Wolff Institute of Physics, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany ([email protected])

10:30 Coffee break

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 36 Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday

11:00–12:00 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-30 On the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave models Chairperson(s): Manel Grifoll in the Adriatic Sea: lessons from an intense CAO event Antonio Ricchi, Francesco Barbariol, Alvise 11:00–11:15: EMS2015-589 Benetazzo, Davide Bonaldo, Francesco M. Falcieri, Climate response to ocean temperature variations along Mario M. Miglietta, Mauro Sclavo, Sandro Carniel the South Atlantic coast of Africa Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy Stefano Materia, William Large, Joe Tribbia, Gokhan ([email protected]) Danabasoglu, Silvio Gualdi, Antonio Navarra Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-460 Bologna, Italy ([email protected]) Twenty-first Century Wave Climate Projections for Ireland: Assessing the Future Wave Energy Potential OralsTuesday 11:15–11:30: EMS2015-382 Sarah Gallagher, Emily Gleeson, Ray McGrath, The diurnal cycle of coastal cloudiness over west Iberia Roxana Tiron, Frédéric Dias using the CM-SAF cloud data record (CLAAS) and a Research, Environment and Applications Division, Met WRF regional climate simulation Éireann, Glasnevin Hill, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland, Joao P. A. Martins, Rita M. Cardoso, Pedro M. M. UCD School of Mathematical Sciences, University Soares, Isabel F. Trigo, Margarida Belo-Pereira, Nuno College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland Moreira, Ricardo Tomé IPMA, LSA-SAF, Lisboa, Portugal 12:45–13:00: EMS2015-256 ([email protected]), IDL, University of Lisbon A coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling approach for a Tropical Like Cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea. 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-178 Sandro Carniel, Antonio Ricchi, Francesco Barbariol, Intrusion of coastal waters into the pelagic eastern Alvise Benetazzo, Davide Bonaldo, Francesco M. Mediterranean: in situ and satellite-based Falcieri, Mauro Sclavo, Aniello Russo, Mario M. characterization Miglietta Eyal Heifetz, Shai Efrati, Yoav Lehahn, Eyal Rahav, CNR-ISMAR, Venice, Dept. Oceanography, Head, Nurit Kress, Barak Herut, Isaac Gertman, Ron Venice, Italy ([email protected]) Goldman, Michael Lazar Tel-Aviv University, Geophysics and Planetary END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI6 Sciences, Tel-Aviv, Israel ([email protected])

11:45–12:00: EMS2015-16 Potential impact of the coloured Amazon and Orinoco ASI7/CE6 Human Biometeorology plume on tropical cyclone intensity Christina Newinger, Ralf Toumi Convener: Andreas Matzarakis Imperial College, United Kingdom Co-Convener: Tanja Cegnar ([email protected]) Lecture Room: Kyoto

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI5 17:00–19:00

Chairperson(s): Andreas Matzarakis ASI6 Modeling the dynamics of 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-56 coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean Comparison of cold and heat related mortality in Vienna processes Andreas Matzarakis, Lion Schöpfer, Ernest Rudel, Elisabeth Koch University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany Convener: Sandro Carniel ([email protected]) Co-Conveners: John C. Warner; Peter Janssen; Huw Lewis 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-124 Lecture Room: Vitosha Three dimensional mean radiant temperature estimations through airborne LiDAR and thermal 12:00–13:00 Infrared images in urban area Tzu-Ping Lin, Yu-Cheng Chen, Jin-King Liu, Andreas Chairperson(s): Huw Lewis, Sandro Carniel Matzarakis, Chih-Yu Chen National Cheng Kung University, Department of 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-311 Architecture, Tainan, Taiwan UK Environmental Prediction - integration and evaluation at the convective scale 17:30–17:45: EMS2015-14 Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Huw Lewis, David Introducing a cumulative thermal index based on Pearson, Chris Harris, Martin Best, Andy Saulter, Lucy Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) for the Bricheno, Ashley Brerton, Eleanor Blyth, Alberto bioclimatic assessment of urban open spaces Marinez de la Torre Ioannis Charalampopoulos, Ioannis Tsiros, Andreas Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, Matzarakis United Kingdom Agricultural University of Athens, Lab. of General and Agricultural Meteorology, Athens, Greece

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday 37

17:45–18:00: EMS2015-44 (YSTA) 17:45–18:00: EMS2015-62 Present and Future Human Thermal Bioclimatic High-resolution large eddy simulations of stably Conditions and Impacts on Cardiovascular Admissions stratified turbulence in free atmosphere in Crete Island, Greece Quentin Rodier, Valéry Masson, Alexandre Paci, Anastasia Bleta, Panagiotis Nastos Pascal Marquet, Guylaine Canut National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France Geology and Geoenvironment, Climatology and ([email protected]) Atmospheric Environment, Kaisariani Athens, Greece ([email protected]) 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-613 Validation of a high Resolution forecast modelling 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-272 system against detailed mean flow and turbulence Felt temperature computations at the Bulgarian weather observations and state-of-the-art LES model service simulations OralsTuesday Ilian Gospodinov, Anna Tsenkova-Bratoeva Reinder Ronda, Jisk Attema, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de National institute of meteorology and hydrology, Arellano, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Bert Holtslag Bulgaria ([email protected]) Wageningen University, Meteorology and Air Quality Section, Wageningen, Netherlands 18:15–18:30: EMS2015-55 ([email protected]) Curiosities in micro scale modeling for human- biometeorological assessment 18:15–18:30: EMS2015-234 Andreas Matzarakis Spatio-temporal Pattern of the Surface-based Turbulent University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany Layer during Polar Winter at Dome C, Antarctica as ([email protected]) observed by Sodar Igor Petenko, Stefania Argentini, Margarita 18:30–18:45: EMS2015-6 Kallistratova, Giangiuseppe Mastrantonio, Angelo Viola, Development of an approach to quantify thermal stress Giampietro Casasanta, Roberto Sozzi of livestock in Germany Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, CNR, Ronja Vitt, Andreas Matzarakis Roma, Italy ([email protected]), A.M. Obukhov Chair of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Moscow, Russia Freiburg, Germany ([email protected]) 18:30–18:45: EMS2015-588 18:45–19:00: Evaluation of PBL schemes in WRF for high Arctic EMS Tromp Award conditions Bert G. Heusinkveld Hristina Kirova-Galabova, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Sven-Erik Gryning, Henrik Skov, Lise Lotte Sørensen END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI7/CE6 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology-BAS, Sofia, Bulgaria ([email protected])

ASI10 Boundary-layer physics and END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI10 parameterizations in weather and climate models

Convener: Sergej Zilitinkevich Co-Convener: Arakel Petrosyan

Lecture Room: Sofia III

17:00–19:00

17:00–17:30: EMS2015-102 Why turbulence sustains in the free atmosphere? (solicited) Sergej Zilitinkevich

Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected]), Division of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland, Department of Radio Physics, University of Nizhniy Novgorod, Russia

17:30–17:45: EMS2015-121 Dynamics of the nocturnal boundary layer in direct numerical simulation Ivo van Hooijdonk, Arnold Moene, Herman Clercx, Judith Donda, Bas van de Wiel Eindhoven University of Technology, Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Eindhoven, Netherlands ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 38 Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday

ASI15 Phenology and 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-117 Austrian drought monitoring system for agriculture agrometeorology Josef Eitzinger, Vojko Daneu, Gernot Bodner, Gerhard Kubu, Willibald Loiskandl, Peggy Macaigne, Sabina Thaler, Andreas Schaumberger, Christoph Wittmann, Convener: Elisabeth Koch Erwin Murer, Carmen Krammer, Mirek Trnka, Michael Co-Convener: Josef Eitzinger Hayes Lecture Room: Kyoto Univ. of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, BOKU, Vienna, Austria 09:00–09:45 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-110 Chairperson(s): Elisabeth Koch/Josef Eitzinger Comprehensive Study on the Influence of OralsTuesday Evapotranspiration and Albedo on Surface Temperature 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-581 Related to Changes in the Leaf Area Index pep725: monitoring of spring phenology 2015 Jiawen Zhu, Xiaodong Zeng Elisabeth Koch, Markus Ungersböck, Thomas Hübner, International Center for Climate and Environment Anita Paul, European Partners Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Academy of Sciences, Beijing,China Climatology, Vienna, Austria ([email protected]) ([email protected]) END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI15

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday 39

Climate

Monitoring climate and climate 10:15–10:30: EMS2015-585 change Trends in wind speed over South America Maria Gertrudes Justi da Silva, Luiz Felipe Cardoso, Igor Campos, Wanderson Silva UENF, CCT, Laboratório de Meteorologia, Macaé, Brazil ([email protected]) CL3 Historical climatology and paleoclimatology END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CL3

OralsTuesday

Convener: Rudolf Brazdil Understanding processes and Co-Conveners: Ricardo García-Herrera; Ulf Buentgen; Fidel González-Rouco climate change Lecture Room: Sofia II

09:00–10:30 CL5 Climate prediction and Chairperson(s): Fidel Gonzáles-Rouco scenarios on decadal to centennial timescales 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-431 Revisiting Chinese temperatures over the last 2k from reconstructions and uncertainty constraints from climate Convener: Mark Liniger simulations Co-Conveners: Clare Goodess; Martin Widmann; Elena García-Bustamante, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Jean-Pierre Céron Laura Fernández-Donado, Juerg Luterbacher, Johann Lecture Room: Sofia II Jungclaus Universidad de Murcia, Departamento de Física, 11:00–13:00 Murcia, Spain ([email protected]) 11:00–11:30: EMS2015-515 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-436 VALUE: a framework to validate downscaling Last millenium temperature simulations and approaches for climate change studies (solicited) reconstructions: overview, comparison and Douglas Maraun, Martin Widmann, Jose M. Gutierrez, uncertainties Sven Kotlarski, Richard E. Chandler, Elke Hertig, Laura Fernández-Donado, J. Fidel González Rouco, Joanna Wibig, Radan Huth, Renate Wilcke Elena García-Bustamante, Jason E. Smerdon, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Christoph C. Raible, Jürg Luterbacher Ocean Circulation and Climate Dynamics, Kiel, Institute of Geosciences (UCM-CSIC), Dpto. Germany ([email protected]) Astrophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University Complutense Madrid, Spain 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-380 ([email protected]) Regionalized climate change projections in AEMET: history, current status and perspectives 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-383 Petra Ramos, Asuncion Pastor, Pilar Amblar, J. Carlos Covariability of the seasonal temperature and Sanchez, Jose M. Rodriguez, Maria J. Casado, J. precipitation in a high-resolution climate simulation for Ramon Picatoste, Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino the Iberian Peninsula during the last five centuries AEMET, Spain Fernando S. Rodrigo, Sonia Fernández Montes, Juan Pedro Montávez, Juan Andrés García-Valero, Juan 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-225 José Gómez-Navarro From regional to local climate scenario: the effects of a Department of Chemistry and Physics, University of statistical bias correction on different spatial scale Almería climate change signal Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Aniello Russo 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-169 Polytechnic University of Marche, Department of Life Reconstruction of hydro-climatic changes in the S and Environmental Sciences, Ancona, Italy Balkans from the Medieval Warm Period to the present ([email protected]) based on a high-resolution lake level stage record derived from beach ridge sediments of Lake Prespa 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-447 (Greece, Albania, FYROM) Good surface performance of GCMs, good driving data Tim van der Schriek, Christos Giannakopoulos for RCMs? Towards a clarification National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece Martin W. Jury, Andreas F. Prein, Heimo Truhetz, ([email protected]) Andreas Gobiet University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-633 Global Change, Graz, Austria Tornadoes in Estonia and Lativa ([email protected]) Andres Tarand Estonia ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 40 Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday

12:15–12:30: EMS2015-619 17:45–18:00: EMS2015-112 On the comparison of EuroCORDEX ensemble and Effects of horizontal resolution of regional climate model ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional simulations simulations on convective and stratiform precipitation Tomas Halenka, Michal Belda, Zuzana Klukova Zuzana Rulfova, Jan Kysely Charles University in Prague, Fac. of Mathematics and Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Prague, Czech Physics, Prague, Czech Republic Republic ([email protected]), Faculty of Mathematics ([email protected]) and Physics, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-574 Research on the Change of Wind Speeds and Wind 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-325 Energy in China Validation of recent ALADIN-Climate simulations over Ying Jiang, Yong Luo, Zongci Zhao Central Europe and Hungary OralsTuesday Public Meteorological Service Center of CMS, Beijing, Tamás Illy, Judit Sábitz, Gabriella Szépszó China ([email protected]) Hungarian Meteorological Service, Regional Climate Modelling Group, Budapest, Hungary ([email protected]) 12:45–13:00: Poster Introduction 18:15–18:30: EMS2015-362 Dynamically downscaled climate projection over the 13:00 Lunch break Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-359 Eun-Soon Im, Elfatih A. B. Eltahir The extreme 2013/2014 winter in a future climate Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, Lucinda Rasmijn, Gerard van der Schrier, Jan Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling, Barkmeijer, Andreas Sterl, Wilco Hazeleger Singapore, Singapore ([email protected]) Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands ([email protected]) 18:30–18:45: EMS2015-23 Centennial-scale climate projection for the Carpathian 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-249 Region assuming moderate change in the ELAPSE - Enhanced regional and local climate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios for Switzerland Ildikó Pieczka, Karolina André, Rita Pongrácz, Judit Sven Kotlarski, Elias Zubler, Martin Ivanov, Andreas Bartholy M. Fischer, Mark A. Liniger, Christoph Schär Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Meteorology, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Budapest, Hungary ([email protected]) MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 18:45–19:00: EMS2015-19 Switzerland Evaluation of regional climate simulations with WRF model in conditions of central Europe 17:30–17:45: EMS2015-174 Jan Karlicky, Tomas Halenka, Michal Belda, Zuzana Strategies for soil initialisation of regional decadal Klukova, Petr Skalak climate predictions Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic Steffen Kothe, Julian Tödter, Bodo Ahrens ([email protected]) Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany ([email protected]) END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CL5

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday 41

Communication and Education CE5 Education

Convener: Tomas Halenka Co-Conveners: Alessandro Chiariello; Gintautas Stankunavicius; Judita Liukaityte Lecture Room: Vitosha

17:00–19:00

OralsTuesday Chairperson(s): Tomas Halenka

17:00–17:15: Honourable Mention for Outreach & Communication Project: video on the application of the GNSS for atmospheric remote sensing

17:15–17:45: EMS2015-569 Eumetcal Training Activities and Strategies (solicited) Alessandro Chiariello, Tero Siili Finnish Meteorological Institute, Human Resource Development, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected])

17:45–18:00: EMS2015-432 Using virtual technologies to deliver training solutions using real models Glenn Carver, Stephan Siemen ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom ([email protected])

18:00–18:15: EMS2015-396 Climate Change Adaptation - a Challenge Requiring Collaborative Actions Kerstin Konitzer, Elin Fridahl, David Hirdman Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping, Sweden ([email protected])

18:15–18:30: EMS2015-605 On the update of Meteorological Glossary at the Czech Meteorological Society Daniela Rezacova, Petr Zacharov, Tomas Halenka and the eMS Team Charles University in Prague, Fac. of Mathematics and Physics, Prague, Czech Republic ([email protected])

18:30–18:45: EMS2015-522 Educating secondary students about climate change through Art Vasilis Dimopoulos, Panagiotis Giannopoulos Hellenic American Educational Foundation, Psychico College, Greece ([email protected])

18:45–19:00: EMS2015-598 Update of ECTOM - European catalogue of training opportunities in meteorology Tomas Halenka, Michal Belda Charles University in Prague, Fac. of Mathematics and Physics, Prague, Czech Republic ([email protected])

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CE5

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 42 Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday

Measurements and Observations

OBS4 Meteorological OBS5 Recent Advances in Climate

observations from ground and (Services) Ready Precipitation

space-based Global Navigation Monitoring Satellite System (GNSS) Convener: Andreas Becker Co-Conveners: Tanja Winterrath; Markus Ziese; Convener: Guergana Guerova Vincenzo Levizzani; Aart Overeem OralsTuesday Co-Convener: Jonathan Jones Lecture Room: Sofia III Lecture Room: Sofia III

11:00–13:00 09:00–10:30 Chairperson(s): Markus Ziese Chairperson(s): Guergana Guerova

11:00–11:15: EMS2015-157 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-90 Measuring rainfall from cellular communication Improving Ionospheric Imaging Via the Incorporation of networks for a 2.5-year period Direct Ionosonde Observations Into GPS Tomography Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, Remko Uijlenhoet over South Africa Wageningen University, Hydrology and Quantitative Chelsey Cooper, Cathryn Mitchell, David Jackson Water Management Group, Wageningen, Netherlands Dept of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University ([email protected]), Royal Netherlands of Bath, Bath, UK, Met Office, Exeter, UK Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

09:15–09:30: EMS2015-439 11:15–11:30: EMS2015-35 Comparison of GNSS processing techniques for Urban flooding forecasting with weather radar and estimation of tropospheric products over Bulgaria for dense rain gauges network 2013 Diego Guenzi, Fiorella Acquaotta, Simona Fratianni, Tzvetan Simeonov, Keranka Vassileva, Norman Rodolfo Boraso, Roberto Cremonini Teferle, Dmitry Sidorov Università degli Studi di Torino - dip. di Scienze della Sofia University, Meteorology and Geophysics, Sofia, Terra, Turin, Italy Bulgaria ([email protected])

11:30–11:45: EMS2015-28 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-338 Climate change impact on flood characteristics in Atmospheric sensing by GNSS signal in GNSS&Meteo southwestern Hungary group investigations Anna Kis, János Adolf Szabó, Rita Pongrácz, Judit Pawel Hordyniec, Witold Rohm, Jaroslaw Bosy, Bartholy Tomasz Hadas, Krzysztof Sosnica, Karina Wilgan, Jan Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Meteorology, Kaplon, Jan Sierny, Kamil Kazmierski Budapest, Hungary ([email protected]) University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Institute

of Geodesy and Geodinformatics, Wroclaw, Poland 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-298 ([email protected]) Global daily precipitation analysis for the validation of

medium-range climate predictions (DAPACLIP) 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-239 Felix Dietzsch, Axel Andersson, Marc Schröder, Kristin Study of fog dynamics in Bulgaria with the GNSS Raykova, Markus Ziese, Andreas Becker tropospheric products Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany Anastasia Stoycheva, Guergana Guerova

National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-405 Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria Monitoring precipitation variations in Europe Christiana Photiadou, Gerard van der Schrier, 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-390 Jonathan Barichivich, Philip Jones Study of frontal and concective intense precipitation Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt 3730 cases in 2012 with GNSS tropospheric products and AE, The Netherlands ([email protected]) NWP model WRF for Bulgaria

Guergana Guerova, Martin Slavchev, Anastasia 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-236 Stoycheva, Tzvetan Simeonov Spatial assessment of the performance of multiple Sofia University, Department of Meteorology and gridded, reanalysis and remote sensing rainfall products Geophysics, Sofia, Bulgaria ([email protected] over Saudi Arabia sofia.bg) Ahmed Kenawy, Matthew McCabe

King Abdullah University of Science and Technology 10:15–10:30: Poster presentations 3 min each (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia

([email protected]) END OF ORAL PROGRAMME OBS4

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Tuesday 43

12:30–12:45: EMS2015-546 HOMPRA Europe - HOMogenized PRecipitation Analysis of European in-situ data Elke Rustemeier, Alice Kapala, Anja Meyer-Christoffer, Peter Finger, Udo Schneider, Victor Venema, Markus Ziese, Clemens Simmer, Andreas Becker Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hydrometeorology, Offenbach am Main, Germany ([email protected])

12:45–13:00: EMS2015-530 On the new portfolio of "climate ready" gridded precipitation data products issued by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) OralsTuesday Markus Ziese, Udo Schneider, Anja Meyer-Christoffer, Peter Finger, Elke Rustemeier, Andreas Becker Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hydrometeorology, Offenbach am Main, Germany ([email protected])

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME OBS5

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 44 Poster Conference Programme – Tuesday

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions

ASI3 Meteorology, climate and P26: EMS2015-371 High resolution wave forecast and verification on the space weather: science, Catalan coast applications and coordination Manuel Bravo, Roger Veciana, Abdelmalik Sairouni Servei meteorologic de Catalunya, meteo.cat

Tuesday Convener: Mauro Messerotti P27: EMS2015-445 Co-Conveners: David R. Jackson, Annika Seppälä, Case study of wind analysis at two coastal site using Suzy Bingham remote sensing sensors and ground based stations Posters Poster Area: Sofia I Teresa Lo Feudo, Damyan Barantiev, Ekaterina Chairperson(s): David Jackson Batchvarova, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Daniel Gullì, Introduction: 09:45, Kyoto Luca Tiriolo, Rosamaria Calaudi, Anna Maria Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Sempreviva ISAC-CNR, UOS of Lamezia Terme, Italy P22: EMS2015-141 ([email protected]) Global water cycle and solar activity variations Muthanna Al-Tameemi, Vladimir Chukin P28: EMS2015-596 Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Scale-dependent evaluation of mesoscale low-level St.Petersburg, Russian Federation winds in coastal areas obtained with ALADIN ([email protected]), Mustansiriya University, mesoscale NWP model Baghdad, Iraq ([email protected]) Mario Hrastinski, Kristian Horvath, Iris Odak Plenkovic, Stjepan Ivatek-Sahdan, Alica Bajic P23: EMS2015-285 Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Atmospheric Coupling between solar/geomagnetic activity and research and forecast models development department, climate variability from stratosphere to troposphere Zagreb, Croatia ([email protected]) Dagmar Novotna, Milan Palus Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Acad.of Sci, END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI5 Czech Republic ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI3 ASI7/CE6 Human Biometeorology

ASI5 Coastal meteorology and Convener: Andreas Matzarakis Co-Convener: Tanja Cegnar oceanography Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Andreas Matzarakis Convener: Mario Marcello Miglietta Introduction: 09:45, Kyoto Co-Conveners: Anna Maria Sempreviva, Manel Grifoll, Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Silvio Gualdi Poster Area: Sofia I P29: EMS2015-123 Chairperson(s): Silvio Gualdi Application of spatial synoptic classification in Introduction: 15:45, Vitosha evaluating links between heat stress and cardiovascular Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 mortality and morbidity in Prague, Czech Republic Ales Urban, Jan Kyselý P24: EMS2015-113 Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Prague, Czech Application of a wind-wave-current coupled model in the Republic ([email protected]), Faculty of Science, Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea) Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic Ana Maria Palomares, Jorge Navarro, Manel Grifoll, Elena Pallares, Manuel Espino, Pedro Jimenez P30: EMS2015-320 CIEMAT (Centro de investigaciones Energéticas, Examination of human comfort predictability using Medioambientales y Tecnológicas), Madrid, Spain ECMWF deterministic model ([email protected]) Dora Luptak, Akos Nemeth, Richard Buki Hungarian Meteorological Service, Climatology Division, P25: EMS2015-277 Budapest, Hungary ([email protected]) The new Euskalmet coastal maritime warning system Santiago Gaztelumendi, Joseba Egaña, Pedro Liria, P31: EMS2015-255 Manuel Gonzalez, José Antonio Aranda, Pedro Anitua An association between environmental variables with Basque Meteorology Agency (EUSKALMET), and Cardiovascular Diseases and Respiratory in São TECNALIA, Meteorology Area Paulo Fabio Goncalves, Alberto Afonso Jr. Brazil ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Tuesday 45

P32: EMS2015-36 P44: EMS2015-189 Biometeorological risks in Bulgaria Parameterization of the PBL over orographyc-thermal Vladimir Ivanov, Stilyan Evtimov non-homogeneities with some application in synoptic National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and and climatic aspects Geography, Sofia, Bulgaria ([email protected]) Evgeni Syrakov, Milen Tsankov, Kostadin Ganev

National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI7/CE6 Geography, Bulgarian academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria, [email protected]

P45: EMS2015-575 ASI10 Boundary-layer physics and Comparison of Energy- & flux-budget turbulence parameterizations in weather and closure with Large Eddy Simulation of idealized cases Evgeny Kadantsev, Sergej Zilitinkevich Posters Tuesday climate models Division of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland ([email protected]) Convener: Sergej Zilitinkevich Co-Convener: Arakel Petrosyan P46: EMS2015-616 Poster Area: Sofia I Evaluation of convective boundary layer Introduction: 15:45, Sofia III parameterizations versus Large-Eddy simulation data Andrey Debolskiy, Victor Stepanenko Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Moscow State University, Meteorology and climatology, Moscow, Russian Federation ([email protected]) P40: EMS2015-31 Field investigation and numerical modeling of wind- END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI10 wave interaction at the middle-sized water body Georgy Baydakov, Alexandra Kuznetsova, Daniil Sergeev, Vladislav Papko, Alexander Kandaurov, ASI15 Phenology and Maxim Vdovin, Yuliya Troitskaya Institute of Applied Physics, Nonlinear Oscillations and agrometeorology Waves, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

([email protected]) Convener: Elisabeth Koch Co-Convener: Josef Eitzinger P41: EMS2015-33 Poster Area: Sofia I Laboratory investigations of the air flow velocity field Chairperson(s): Elisabeth Koch, Josef Eitzinger structure above the wavy surface for a wide range of Introduction: 09:45, Kyoto wind flow rates and parameters of surface roughness by Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 modified Particle Image Velocimetry technique

Maksim Vdovin, Yuliya Troitskaya, Daniil Sergeev, P66: EMS2015-275 Alexander Kandaurov L Probability Distribution Function and One Relative Institute of Applied Physics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Standard of Dry and Wet Index Federation ([email protected]) Wanli Wang

Wuhan University,School of Resource and P42: EMS2015-146 Environmental Science,Wuhan,China,430079, Roughness Length Parameterizations of Regional Research Centre of climate and atmospheric Climate Models: Influence on Mistral and Tramontane environment, Wuhan, China Patterns ([email protected]) Anika Obermann, Benedikt Edelmann, Bodo Ahrens

University of Frankfurt, Institute for Atmospheric and P67: EMS2015-161 Environmental Sciences, Frankfurt am Main, Germany Estimation of Rice Yield using MODIS NDVI and ([email protected]) Multimodel Ensemble Seasonal Hindcasts Jong Chun, Sung Kim, Sang Oh P43: EMS2015-187 APEC Climate Center, Busan, Republic of Korea Generalization and application of the coordinated ([email protected]) similarity format schemes for parameterization of a wide

set of turbulent regimes in the PBL END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI15 Evgeni Syrakov, Kostadin Ganev, Milen Tsankov National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Bulgarian academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria, [email protected]

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 46 Poster Conference Programme – Tuesday

Climate

Monitoring climate and climate Understanding processes and

change climate change

CL3 Historical climatology and CL5 Climate prediction and paleoclimatology scenarios on decadal to

Posters Tuesday centennial timescales Convener: Rudolf Brazdil Co-Conveners: Ricardo García-Herrera, Ulf Buentgen, Convener: Mark Liniger Fidel González-Rouco Co-Conveners: Clare Goodess, Martin Widmann, Poster Area: Sofia I Introduction: 15:45, Kyoto Jean-Pierre Céron Poster Area: Sofia I Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Introduction: 12:45, Sofia II

Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 P82: EMS2015-542

Modelling of dust deposition in Antarctica in glacial and P99: EMS2015-618 interglacial climate conditions Natalia Sudarchikova, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Claudia On the integrated assessment of climate change using climate classification Timmreck, Declan O’Donnell, Guy Schurgers, Dmitry Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Jaroslava Kalvova, Eva Sein, Kai Zhang Holtanova Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Charles University in Prague, Fac. of Mathematics and Germany ([email protected]) Physics, Prague, Czech Republic

P83: EMS2015-291 ([email protected])

Early meteorological observations in western Africa, P100: EMS2015-32 1687-1793 Fernando S. Rodrigo, Vicente Millán Identifying the freezing rain events in European gridded climate datasets Dep. Chemistry and Physics, University of Almeria, Matti Kämäräinen, Kirsti Jylhä, Andrea Vajda, Hilppa Almeria, Spain ([email protected]) Gregow, Pauli Jokinen, Seppo Saku

P84: EMS2015-584 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected]) Indicators of severe storms in Rio de Janeiro : trends

observed in recent decades and in a climate change P101: EMS2015-91 scenario Maria Gertrudes Justi da Silva, Camila Brasiliense, Synthetic daily weather time-series for future climate in Switzerland Fabricio Polifke da Silva, Wallace Menezes Denise Keller, Mark Liniger, Andreas Fischer, Reto UENF, CCT, Laboratório de Meteorologia, Macaé, Knutti, Christof Appenzeller Brazil ([email protected]) Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CL3 MeteoSwiss, Climate Division, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland ([email protected])

P102: EMS2015-92 Climate change signal over the Alpine region - sensitivity to GCM selection Elias Zubler, Andreas Fischer, Mark Liniger Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Climate Division, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland ([email protected])

P103: EMS2015-95 Understanding of uncertainties in bunch of reanalysis data sets for MJO assessment Jinkyung Park, Hyun-Suk Kang, Tetsuo Nakazawa, ChunHo Cho National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Tuesday 47

P104: EMS2015-139 P107: EMS2015-554 Relationship between temperature and precipitation Changes in winter streamflow in southern Iberian over Europe in EURO-CORDEX regional climate Peninsula during the 21th century models María Jesús Esteban-Parra, Jose Manuel Hidalgo Lenka Crhova, Eva Holtanova Muñoz, Matilde García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Sonia R.

Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Mathematics Gámiz-Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez and Physics, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Universidad de Granada, Dpto Física Aplicada, Prague, Czech Republic ([email protected]) Granada, Spain ([email protected])

P105: EMS2015-304 P108: EMS2015-552 Climate change impact on future heating and cooling Sensitivity of the WRF model for Dynamical needs in Zagreb Downscaling in term of evaporation and specific

Lidija Cvitan, Mirta Patarcic, Renata Sokol Jurkovic humidity over Spain Posters Tuesday Meteorological and hydrological service, Research and Matilde García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Sonia R. Gámiz- development division, Zagreb, Croatia Fortis, Yolanda Castro-Díez, María Jesús Esteban- ([email protected]) Parra Universidad de Granada, Dpto Física Aplicada, P106: EMS2015-384 Granada, Spain ([email protected]) Quantifying groundwater recharge under projected climatic changes in an urban area END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CL5 Sabine Meißner, Volkmar Dunger, Stephanie Hänsel, Jörg Matschullat TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Environmental Research Centre, Freiberg, Germany ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 48 Poster Conference Programme – Tuesday

Communication and Education

CE5 Education

Convener: Tomas Halenka Co-Conveners: Alessandro Chiariello, Gintautas Stankunavicius, Judita Liukaityte Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Tomas Halenka Introduction: 15:45, Vitosha

Posters Tuesday Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00

P116: EMS2015-428 Using virtual machines for training at ECMWF – Building sound environments to improve training Stephan Siemen, Sándor Kertész, Iain Russell, Glenn Carver

P117: EMS2015-170 Teaching STEM through renewable energy for non- science major college students Yukimasa Tsubota Natural Science Divisions, J. F. Oberlin University, Tokyo, Japan ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CE5

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Tuesday 49

Measurements and Observations

OBS4 Meteorological OBS5 Recent Advances in Climate observations from ground and (Services) Ready Precipitation space-based Global Navigation Monitoring Satellite System (GNSS) Convener: Andreas Becker Co-Conveners: Tanja Winterrath, Markus Ziese, Convener: Guergana Guerova Vincenzo Levizzani, Aart Overeem Co-Convener: Jonathan Jones Posters Tuesday Poster Area: Sofia I Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Aart Overeem Chairperson(s): Jonathan Jones Introduction: 15:45, Sofia III Introduction: 10:15, Sofia III Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00

P126: EMS2015-532 P121: EMS2015-323 Comparative statistical evaluation of the global daily COST Action ES1206: GNSS for Severe Weather and precipitation data set DAPACLIP at GPCC Climate (GNSS4SWEC) Kristin Raykova, Elke Rustemeier, Kirstin Schamm, Jonathan Jones, Guergana Guerova, Jan Dousa, Markus Ziese, Anja Meyer-Christoffer, Udo Schneider, Galina Dick, Siebren de Haan, Eric Pottiaux, Olivier Peter Finger, Andreas Becker Bock, Rosa Pacione Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hydrometeorology, Offenbach Met Office, Observations R&D, Exeter, United Kingdom am Main, Germany ([email protected]) ([email protected])

P127: EMS2015-543 P122: EMS2015-455 Assessment of ERA-20C reanalysis monthly Activities of GNSS4SWEC Working Group 1: Advanced precipitation totals on the basis of GPCC in-situ GNSS Processing Techniques measurements Jan Dousa, Galina Dick, Florian Zus, Michal Kacmarík, Elke Rustemeier, Markus Ziese, Andreas Becker, Anja Pavel Václavovic, Hugues Brenot, Karolina Szafranek, Meyer-Christoffer, Udo Schneider, Peter Finger Zhiguo Deng, Elmar Brockmann, Norman Teferle, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hydrometeorology, Offenbach Witold Rohm, Marcelo Santos, Nicolas Zinas, Pawel am Main, Germany ([email protected]) Wielgosz, Samuel Nahmani, Laurent Morel

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research END OF POSTER PROGRAMME OBS5 Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany

P123: EMS2015-53 Two modes of mixing ratio lamina vertical distribution Peter Krizan Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic ([email protected])

P124: EMS2015-303 The assimilation of multi-GNSS tropospheric data Florian Zus, XingXing Li, Galina Dick, Stefan Heise, Wickert Jens GFZ Potsdam, 1.1, Potsdam, Germany (zusflo@gfz- potsdam.de)

P125: EMS2015-544 Improvement of the vertical component of GPS and INSAR measurements in the western Corinth Gulf (Greece), by the use of high-resolution meteorological modeling of the lower troposphere: The PaTrop Experiment Nikolaos Roukounakis, Panagiotis Elias, Pierre Briole, Athanassios Argyriou, Ioannis Kioutsoukis, Adrianos Retalis, Dimitrios Katsanos, Athanassios Ganas, Dimitar Dimitrov ENS, Laboratoire de Geologie, UMR 8538, 24 rue Lhomond, 75231 Paris CEDEX 5, France, Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Department of Physics, University of Patras, Patras GR 26500, Greece, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Lofos Koufou, P. Penteli 15236, Greece

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 50 Conference Programme – Wednesday

Wednesday, 09 September 2015

Room Sofia II Sofia III Kyoto Vitosha Room

ASI11: Interfacing hydrological and meteoro- ASI14: Meteorological OBS3/ASI19: Airborne logical models in processes, atmospheric meteorology forecasting system

composition and pollution

09:00–10:30 09:00–10:30 10:15: Poster Introduction

10:30 Coffee Break 10:30

ECAM5/ASI20: Reducing ASI12/OBS2: Sub- ASI14 Weather Risks to kilometre Scale Precipi- CL7: Synoptic Transport: air, sea and tation Variability and its climatology land Impact on Hydrology

12:30: Poster Introduction 11:00–13:00 11:00–13:00 12:45: Poster Introduction 12:30: Poster introduction

13:00 Lunch Break 13:00 OBS1/ASI8: ECAM2/CE3: Delivery Atmospheric and communication of CL1: Climate monitoring; measurements from the impact based forecasts data rescue, local to the regional ASI13: Urban climate and risk based warnings management, quality and scale

homogenization 14:00–16:00 14:00–16:00 to be continued 15:05 Panel Discussion Thursday

P07: Poster Introduction P08: Poster Introduction P09: Poster Introduction 16:00 16:00 CL7 CL1 ASI13, OBS3/ ASI19 Poster Session & Coffee Break I Foyer and Room Sofia I Poster authors in attendance time for the following sessions: ECAM and SPS programme group: SPS3 (GB1, GB2 in room Sofia II), ECAM2/CE3 (P6), ECAM5/ASI20 (P7 - P9) ASI programme group: ASI11 (P47 - P48), ASI12/OBS2 (P49 - P50), ASI13 (P51 - P55),

ASI14 (P56 - P65)

16:15–17:00 16:15–17:00 CL programme group: CL1 (P68 - P81), CL7 (P109 - P115) OBS programme group: OBS3/ASI19 (P118 - P120)

The Great Debate: Big Data in

Meteorology

17:00–18:30 17:00–18:30

Room Sofia II Sofia III Kyoto Vitosha Room

In the detailed daily programme (on page 51 to 67) the related ECAM, ASI, CL and OBS sessions are listed in the following order: ECAM2/CE3, ECAM5/ASI20, ASI11, ASI12/OBS2, ASI13, ASI14, CL1, CL7, OBS1/ASI8, OBS3/ASI19.

Poster display time Monday to Wednesday Authors are kindly asked to put up their posters as soon as possible within the allocated display time in order to enable the conference participants to view their posters at any time within the display days, and to take them down on Wednesday evening between 18:00–19:30. Posters that have not been removed within this dismantling time will be removed and disposed.

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday 51

Special Events

SPS3 Public Great Debate: “Big Data” in Meteorology: Opportunities and Challenges

Convener: Will Lang Co-Convener: Robert Mureau Lecture Room: Sofia II

17:00–18:30

Chairperson(s): Will Lang

17:00–17:15: EMS2015-242 Urban air temperature estimation from smartphone battery temperatures (solicited) Jan Jaap Pape, Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, James Robinson, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Berthold K.P. Horn, OralsWednesday Remko Uijlenhoet Wageningen University, Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen, Netherlands ([email protected]), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

17:15–17:25: Introduction to “Great Debate” by Will Lang (including poster summaries)

17:25–17:30: EMS2015-172 Big Data challenges in NWP and its Application Ken Mylne Met Office, Weather Science, Exeter, United Kingdom ([email protected]), Chair Data Processing and Forecasting System, WMO Commission for Basic Systems

17:30–17:35: Robert Mureau (MeteoGroup)

17:35–17:40: Panellist 3: Statement

17:40–17:45: Panellist 4: Statement

17:45–18:30: Discussion moderated by Will Lang

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME SPS3

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 52 Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday

Applications of Meteorology

ECAM2/CE3 Delivery and 15:25–15:35: Tanja Cegnar, Slovenian Environment Agency communication of impact based (panellist) forecasts and risk based warnings 15:35–16:00: Challenges and best practice in communicating severe Conveners: Dee Cotgrove; Haleh Kootval weather: Questions & Answers with the Panel Co-Convener: Tanja Cegnar Lecture Room: Sofia II END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ECAM2/CE3

14:00–16:00

Chairperson(s): Dee Cotgrove/Haleh Kootval ECAM5/ASI20 Reducing Weather Risks to Transport: air, sea and 14:00–14:05: Introduction land

14:05–14:20: EMS2015-278 OralsWednesday Geographical contextualize and quantify flood risk using Convener: Fraser Ralston global precipitation data and GIS Co-Conveners: Thomas Hauf; Christine Le Bot Elena Isotta Cristofori, Amos Mtonya, Walther Lecture Room: Kyoto

Camaro, Simone Balbo, Paolo Pasquali Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy 11:00–13:00 ([email protected]), ITHACA - Information Chairperson(s): Fraser Ralston Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation

and Action, Torino, Italy 11:00–11:15: EMS2015-215

14:20–14:35: EMS2015-395 Weather Window Planning Maurits Geuze A communication issue: Extremes - they have a will of Netherlands ([email protected]) their own! Arne Spekat, Wolfgang Enke 11:15–11:30: EMS2015-137 Climate and Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH, Cb-LIKE - Thunderstorm forecasts up to six hours with Potsdam, Germany ([email protected]) fuzzy logic

Martin Köhler 14:35–14:50: EMS2015-471 Germany ([email protected]) Weather Information Tailored to the Needs of

Renewable Energy Industry 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-168 Isabel Alberts, Carmen Köhler, Andrea Steiner, Harald Road weather forecasting in Météo-France Kempf, Renate Hagedorn Ludovic Bouilloud, Odile Coudert Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

([email protected]) 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-376

14:50–15:05: EMS2015-83 Viamet: Advanced integration of meteorological data to achieve high resolution winter road condition forecasts Innovations in communicating high impact weather Roger Veciana Rovira, Abdelmalik Sairouni, Josep events Joanne McLellan Ramon Miró Cubells, Rocky Otto Inarejos, Jéssica Amaro Met Office, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya, Spain ([email protected]) ([email protected])

Panel Discussion 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-495

15:05–15:15: Winter time road traffic accidents compared to weather in Finland Gerald Fleming, Head Forcasting Met Eireann Marjo Hippi, Otto Solin (panellist) Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

15:15–15:25: ([email protected])

Nina Kukkurainen, Communications Director Finnish 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-7 Meteorological Institute (panellist) A Vehicle OverTurning Model: Forecasting Risk of

Disruption on the UK Road Network during Winter

Storms

Rebecca Hemingway

United Kingdom

([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday 53

12:30–12:45: EMS2015-57 Evaluation of ship icing algorithms against unique ice accumulation data in Norwegian waters Eirik Mikal Samuelsen UiT - The Arctic University of Tromsø ([email protected]), MET Norway, Tromsø ([email protected])

12:45–13:00: Short Poster Presentation

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ECAM5/ASI20

OralsWednesday

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 54 Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions

ASI11 Interfacing hydrological and ASI12/OBS2 Sub-kilometre Scale meteorological models in Precipitation Variability and its forecasting system Impact on Hydrology

Convener: Bodo Ahrens Convener: Katharina Lengfeld Co-Conveners: Massimiliano Zappa; Herbert Formayer Co-Conveners: Marco Clemens; Marie-claire ten Lecture Room: Vitosha Veldhuis; Auguste Gires; Sylvia Bohnenstengel Lecture Room: Vitosha

09:00–10:20

11:00–12:40 Chairperson(s): B. Ahrens Chairperson(s): Marco Clemens, Katharina Lengfeld 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-60 Simulation of Seasonal Extreme River Flows for 11:00–11:15: EMS2015-66 Selected Climates Change Scenarios and Odra River Operational applications of dual-polarized weather radar Basin in Finland OralsWednesday Leszek Kuchar, Slawomir Iwanski, Leszek Jelonek Ljubov Nevvonen Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences Finland ([email protected]) (WUELS), Wroclaw, Poland ([email protected]), Institute of Meteorology 11:15–11:30: EMS2015-39 and Water Management, Wroclaw, Poland Assessment of vertical variability of radar backscatter moments 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-65 Marek Jacob, Marco Clemens, Hans Münster, Felix How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an Ament example of climate service for water resource Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg, management. Germany ([email protected]) Christian Viel, Anne-Lise Beaulant, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Jean-Pierre Ceron 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-40 Météo-France, Climatology, France Urban High-Resolution Precipitation Product for rainfall- ([email protected]) runoff simulations: Combining C-Band and Local X- Band Radar Data 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-132 Katharina Lengfeld, Marc Berenguer, Marco Clemens, Assessing various post-processing methods with regard Felix Ament, Daniel Sempere-Torres to a low-flow forecast system in the Thur basin University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, (Switzerland) Germany ([email protected]), Universitat Konrad Bogner, Stefanie Joerg-Hess, Luzi Bernhard, Politècnica de Catalunya, Centre de Recerca Aplicada Massimiliano Zappa en Hidrometeorologia, Barcelona, Spain Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-492 ([email protected]) Implementation of temporal and spatial variable relationships of radar reflectivity and rainfall rate in a 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-525 network of X-band radars Flood warning for the city of Venice using an Ensemble Marco Clemens, Katharina Lengfeld, Hans Münster, Prediction System tool Felix Ament Riccardo Mel, Piero Lionello Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, University of Padua, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Germany Edile ed Ambientale, Padova, Italy ([email protected]) 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-538 High resolution modelling of urban catchments 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-624 Abdellah Ichiba, Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Assessing the performance of ensemble streamflow Daniel Schertzer, Philippe Bompard forecasts produced by the rainfall forecasts from U. Paris-Est, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, LEESU, Australian numerical weather prediction models Marne-la-Vallée, France Durga Lal Shrestra, David Robertson, James Bennett, ([email protected]), Conseil général du Yong Song, Qj Wang Val-de-Marne, Direction des Services de Land and Water Flagship, CSIRO, Australia l’Environnement et de l’Assainissement (DSEA), Bonneuil-sur-Marne, France 10:15–10:20: Poster introductions

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI11

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday 55

12:15–12:30: EMS2015-134 15:15–15:30: EMS2015-586 Statistically quantifying rain radar reflectivity errors Measured and modeled tropospheric profiles over Sofia using measurements from a radar network Orlin Gueorguiev, Ekaterina Batchvarova Claire Merker, Marco Clemens, Katharina Lengfeld, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Felix Ament Bulgaria ([email protected], Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg, Germany [email protected]) ([email protected]) 15:30–15:45: EMS2015-620 12:30–12:40: On the assessment of urban land-surface impacts on Introduction to Posters climate in regional climate model simulations over Central Europe END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI12/OBS2 Peter Huszar, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka Charles University in Prague, Fac. of Mathematics and Physics, Prague, Czech Republic ([email protected]) ASI13 Urban Climate 15:45–16:00: EMS2015-196 Convener: Martin Wattenbach Techniques for Modeling Approaches of the Main Co-Conveners: Dr. Martin Rumberg; Sascha Henninger Sources of Anthropogenic Heat in the so-called Heat Lecture Room: Vitosha Islands and Their Behavior Premysl Derbek, Jana Blumelova, Jaroslav Resler, 14:00–16:00 Pavel Jurus, Pavel Hrubes OralsWednesday Faculty of Transportation Sciences, Department of Chairperson(s): Sascha Henninger & Martin Wattenbach Transport Telematics, Czech Technical University in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic 14:00–14:15: EMS2015-20 (YSTA) ([email protected]) A study of the Urban Heat Island of Barcelona using a fast urban climate model END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI13 Markel García-Díez, Joan Ballester, Koen De Ridder, Hans Hooyberghs, Dirk Lauwaet, Xavier Rodó Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, Climate ASI14 Meteorological processes, Dynamics and Impacts Unit, Spain ([email protected]) atmospheric composition and

14:15–14:30: EMS2015-417 pollution Scaling the maximum Urban Heat Island for mid-latitude cities Convener: Charles Chemel Natalie Theeuwes, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Reinder Co-Conveners: Martin Piringer; Astrid Manders; Ronda, Albert A.M. Holtslag Alexander Baklanov Lecture Room: Sofia III 14:30–14:45: EMS2015-464 Impact of Urban Heat Island on the thermal regime of 09:00–10:30 buildings in Bucharest (Romania) Dan Constantinescu, Sorin Cheval, Alexandru Chairperson(s): Charles Chemel Dumitrescu, Gabriela Caracas National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, 09:00–09:15: Romania ([email protected]) Introduction

14:45–15:00: EMS2015-251 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-130 Urban Heat Island or Urban Heat Bubble? Computer simulations of the atmospheric composition Sergio Buricelli, Renato R. Colucci, Paolo Galluccio, climate of Bulgaria Riccardo Milocco, Luigi Molinari, Cristian Noacco, Georgi Gadzhev, Kostadin Ganev, Nikolay Miloshev, Sergio Nordio, Gianluca Pistrin, Furio Pieri, Roberto Dimiter Syrakov, Maria Prodanova Stampetta, Alberto Villani, Fulvio Stel National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Unione Meteorologica del Friuli Venezia Giulia Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Acad. G. ([email protected]) Bonchev Str., Bl.3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria kganev, ggadjev, [email protected] 15:00–15:15: EMS2015-257 Spatial pattern of urban sensible heat flux retrieved by 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-38 means of remote-sensing observations A Statistical Comparison of Observed and Modelled Lech Gawuc, Mariusz Zielinski, Joanna Struzewska Daily PM10 Levels in Marmara Region Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Duygu Ozcomak, Yasar Burak Oztaner, Luca Pozzoli, Environmental Engineering, Warsaw, Poland Tayfun Kindap, Alper Unal ([email protected]) Eurasia Institute of Earth Science, Climate and Marine Science, Istanbul Technical University ([email protected], [email protected], [email protected],[email protected], [email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 56 Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday

09:45–10:00: EMS2015-345 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-631 Inter-comparison and evaluation of dust prediction Results of the modelling exercises in COST Action models in the Sahel region ES1006: local-scale models for accidental releases in Enric Terradellas, Gerardo Garcia-Castrillo, Sara built environments Basart, Emilio Cuevas, Beatrice Marticorena Silvia Trini Castelli, Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer, Bernd AEMET, Barcelona, Spain ([email protected]) Leitl, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Maya Milliez, Eva Berbekar, Anniko Rakai, Vladimir Fuka, Antti Hellste, 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-253 Anton Petrov, George Efthimiou, Spyros Sensitivity of ammonia concentrations to meteorology Andronopoulos, Gianni Tinarelli, Richard Tavares, Carlijn Hendriks, Maria Quaade, Richard Kranenburg, Patrick Armand, Claudio Gariazzo, Maxime Nibart, all Astrid Manders, Martijn Schaap COST ES1006 Members TNO, Climate, Air and Sustainability, Utrecht, National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology- Netherlands ([email protected]) Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria

10:15–10:30: EMS2015-507 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-254 5-year evaluation of Ecoforecast.eu - air quality Impacts of air masses origin and trajectory on forecasting system for Poland atmospheric phenomena Jacek W. Kaminski, Pawel Durka, Joanna Struzewska Arianna Miniussi, Dario Giaiotti, Fulvio Stel Warsaw University of Technology, Department of Regional Agency for the Environmental Protection of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw, Poland Friuli Venezia Giulia, Regional Center fo Environmental Modeling, Palmanova, Italy ([email protected])

OralsWednesday 10:30 Coffee break 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-210 11:00–13:00 Study of diurnal pattern of surface ozone with special emphasis to nighttime ozone at multiple urban sites in Chairperson(s): Astrid Manders the United Kingdom Pavan Kulkarni, Daniele Bortoli, Ana Maria Silva, 11:00–11:15: EMS2015-410 Claire Reeves Air Quality Modelling with WRF-CMAQ over Europe - Instituto de Ciências da Terra (ICT),University of Evora Focus on Ozone and Particulate Matter (UE), Evora, Portugal ([email protected]) Dimiter Syrakov, Maria Prodanova, Emilia Georgieva, Kiril Slavov 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-231 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Lidar observations of tropical stratospheric aerosol Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria transfer over the Western Siberia ([email protected]) Alexander Cheremisin, Valery Marichev, Pavel Novikov 11:15–11:30: EMS2015-510 Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Modelled and observed vertical ozone distribution in the ([email protected]), Krasnoyarsk Railway troposphere over Europe Institute, Krasnoyarsk, Russia Joanna Struzewska, Jacek W. Kaminski, Maciej Jefimow, Karol Szymankiewicz 12:30–12:45: Warsaw University of Technology, Department of Introduction to Posters Environmental Engineering, Warsaw, Poland ([email protected]) 12:45–13:00: Discussion

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI14

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday 57

Climate

Monitoring climate and climate 15:30–15:45: EMS2015-218 Homogenization in areas of sparse data networks: a change case study applying HOMER Stefanie Gubler, Stefan Hunziker, Michael Begert, Mischa Croci-Maspoli, Thomas Konzelmann, Stefan CL1 Climate monitoring; data Brönnimann, Clara Oria, Gabriela Rosas Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology rescue, management, quality and MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland homogenization 15:45–16:00: EMS2015-519

Description of the bias introduced by the transition from Convener: Manola Brunet-India Conventional Manual Measurements to Automatic Co-Conveners: Hermann Mächel; Victor Venema; Weather Station through the analysis of European and Ingeborg Auer; Dan Hollis American parallel datasets. Lecture Room: Kyoto Enric Aguilar, Petr Stepanek, Victor Venema, Renate Auchmann, Fabricio Daniel dos Santos Silva, Erik 14:00–16:00 Engström, Alba Gilabert, Zoia Kretova, Jose Antonio

Lopez-Díaz, Yolanda Luna Rico, Clara Oria Rojas, Marc OralsWednesday Chairperson(s): Manola Brunet Prohom, Domingo Rasilla,Mozar Salvador, Gregor Vetacnik, Yzhak Yosef 14:00–14:15: EMS2015-49 Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Center for Climate Change, Transforming the Availability Climate Data in Africa: The C3,Tarragona/Tortosa, Spain. ENACTS Approach Tufa Dinku, Remi Cousin, John del Corral END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CL1 Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society(IRI), Palisades, United States ([email protected]) Understanding processes and 14:15–14:30: EMS2015-74 Impact of daily temperature homogenization on cold climate change extremes in Switzerland Renate Auchmann, Franz Kuglitsch, Andrea Toreti, Stefan Brönnimann CL7 Synoptic climatology University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland ([email protected]) Conveners: Radan Huth; Rasmus Benestad Lecture Room: Sofia II 14:30–14:45: EMS2015-76 Overview of the RHtests_dlyPrcp software package for 11:00–13:00 homogenization of daily precipitation Xiaolan L. Wang, Yang Feng 11:00–11:15: EMS2015-500 Environment Canada, Climate Research Division, 20th Century extratropical cyclone climatology and risk Toronto, Canada ([email protected]) assessment Filipa Varino, Philippe Arbogast, Bruno Joly, Gwendal 14:45–15:00: EMS2015-84 Riviere Riviére, Marie-Laure Fandeur, Henry Bovy Automatic networking for the homogenization of large Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques climatic datasets (CNRM)-Meteo-France, Toulouse,France Peter Domonkos Univ. Rovira i Virgili, Campus Terres de l’Ebre, Centre 11:15–11:30: EMS2015-491 for Climate Change, Tortosa, Spain Cyclones producing positive and negative sea level ([email protected]) extremes along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, Marco Reale 15:00–15:30: EMS2015-557 University of Trieste,Trieste,Italy Is the global mean land surface temperature trend too low? (solicited) 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-200 Victor Venema, Phil Jones, Ralf Lindau, Tim Osborn Analysis of observed tropical cyclones over the University of Bonn, Meteorological institute, Bonn, subtropical eastern North Atlantic Germany ([email protected]) Miguel Angel Gaertner, Teresa Losada, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Enrique Sánchez, Raquel Romera, Marta Domínguez, Victoria Gil, Clemente Gallardo University of Castilla-La Mancha, Environmental Sciences and Biochemistry Faculty, Toledo, Spain ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 58 Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday

11:45–12:00: EMS2015-567 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-397 Large scale dynamics preconditionning heavy Region size matters - Statistical downscaling for more precipitating events over southern France: a multi- than a limited focus area variate weather regimes approach Arne Spekat, Wolfgang Enke Bruno Joly, Philippe Arbogast Climate and Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH, National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM) Potsdam, Germany ([email protected]) Meteo France/GAME 12:45–13:00: EMS2015-536 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-205 Statistical relationships between North Atlantic and Applicability of Dzerdzeevski’s atmospheric circulation Pacific circulation patterns and surface wind in North classification to northern-hemispheric climate variations Eastern North America: annual to centennial variability Andreas Hoy, Mait Sepp Etor E. Lucio-Eceiza, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Jorge TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Interdisciplinary Navarro, Elena García-Bustamante, Hugo Beltrami Environmental Research Centre, Germany Dpto. Astrofísica y Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Instituto de Geociencias (UCM-CSIC), Universidad Complutense 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-207 de Madrid. Spain ([email protected]) Daily Weather Types Computed from Early Instrumental Data back to 1763 END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CL7 Mikhaël Schwander, Stefan Brönnimann Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland ([email protected]), Oeschger Centre

OralsWednesday for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday 59

Measurements and Observations

OBS1/ASI8 Atmospheric 15:30–15:45: EMS2015-281 Multiple-point sodar observations of structures in the measurements from the local to summertime ABL over slightly sloped glacier in the regional scale: Concepts, new Antarctica Rostislav Kouznetsov, Priit Tisler, Timo Vihma technologies and scientific Finnish Meteorological Institute, Air Quality, Helsinki, progress Finland ([email protected]), A.M. Obukhov institute for atmospheric physics, Moscow, Russia

Convener: Frank Beyrich 15:45–16:00: EMS2015-340

Co-Convener: Fred C. Bosveld One-year comparison of PBL structure derived by Lecture Room: Sofia III ceilometer, radiosonde, and weather prediction model in Sofia, Bulgaria 14:00–16:00 Ventsislav Danchovski, Guergana Guerova, Danko Ivanov, Plamen Savov, Nikolay Kolev, Tsvetina Chairperson(s): F. Beyrich Evgenieva, Evgeni Donev Faculty of Physics, Department of Meteorology and

Profiles from Lidars and Sodars Geophysics, Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridsky", OralsWednesday Sofia, Bulgaria ([email protected]) 14:00–14:30: EMS2015-63 Advanced Raman lidars for humidity, temperature and ORAL PROGRAMME OBS1/ASI8 CONTINUES aerosol observations (solicited) THURSDAY Valentin Simeonov, Todor Dinoev, Ilya Serikov, Pablo Ristori, Hubert van den Bergh, Marc Parlange, Martin Froidevaux, Yury Arshinov, Sergey Bobrovnikov, Bertrand Calpini, Alexander Haefele OBS3/ASI19 Airborne EPFL, ISTE, EFLUM, Lausanne, Switzerland meteorology ([email protected])

14:30–14:45: EMS2015-523 Convener: Clemens Drüe Synergy of Raman lidar and microwave radiometry for Co-Conveners: Jens Bange; Paulina Valtchvanova high vertically resolved atmospheric profiles Lecture Room: Kyoto Maria Barrera Verdejo, Susanne Crewell, Ulrich Löhnert, Emiliano Orlandi, Paolo Di Girolamo, Andreas 09:00–10:30 Fix, Martin Wirth University of Cologne, Institute of Geophysics and Chairperson(s): Paulina Valtchvanova Meteorology, Köln, Germany ([email protected] koeln.de) 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-502 NARVAL-North: Comparison of Cloud Properties from 14:45–15:00: EMS2015-386 Aircraft Measurements with COSMO Simulations First steps towards a European Doppler lidar network Heike Konow, Felix Ament, Susanne Crewell, Lutz for meteorological applications Hirsch, Christian Klepp, Mario Mech, Emiliano Orlandi Ewan J. O’Connor, Anne Hirsikko Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Germany Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected]) ([email protected]), Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-125 An airborne case study on the influence of atmospheric 15:00–15:15: EMS2015-339 boundary layer dynamics on the new particle formation On a flexible wind retrieval algorithm from Andreas Platis, Barbara Altstädter, Birgit Wehener, measurements with a new generation of Doppler lidar Norman Wildmann, Astrid Lampert, Markus Hermann, systems for high resolution vertical wind profile Wolfram Birmilli, Jens Bange observations Universität Tübingen, ZAG, Environmental Physics, Eileen Päschke, Volker Lehmann, Ronny Leinweber Tübingen, Germany ([email protected]) DWD, Met. Observatory Lindenberg, Met. Observatory Lindenberg, Germany, Tauche (OT Lindenberg), 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-606 Germany ([email protected]) Airborne investigations of a fully turbulent stable boundary layer over a polynya near Greenland 15:15–15:30: EMS2015-286 Günther Heinemann, Clemens Drüe Studying the temporal and spatial evolution of turbulent Universität Trier, Umweltmeteorologie / environmental mixing with a scanning Doppler lidar meteorology, Trier, Germany ([email protected]) Ville Vakkari, Ewan J. O’Connor Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 60 Oral Conference Programme – Wednesday

09:45–10:00: EMS2015-203 10:15–10:30: EMS2015-360 RPA-borne Measurements of Vertical Profiles and Balloon-borne accelerometer observations of Turbulent Fluxes of the Near-Coastal North Sea atmospheric turbulence Boundary-Layer during Strong Winds Graeme Marlton, Giles Harrison, Keri Nicoll, Paul David Tupman, Andreas Platis, Norman Wildmann, Williams Jens Bange University of Reading, Meteorology, Reading, United Centre for Applied Geosciences, Tubingen, Germany Kingdom ([email protected]) ([email protected]) END OF ORAL PROGRAMME OBS3/ASI19 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-365 Mode S and ADS-B as a Source of Clear-Air Turbulence Measurements Jacek M. Kopec, Kamil Kwiatkowski, Szymon P. Malinowski, Siebren de Haan Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Warszawa, Poland ([email protected]), Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of Warsaw, Warszawa, Poland

OralsWednesday

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Wednesday 61

Special Events

SPS3 Public Great Debate: ’Big Data’ in Meteorology: Opportunities and Challenges

Convener: Will Lang Co-Convener: Robert Mureau Poster Area: Sofia II Introduction: 17:15, Sofia II Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00

GB1: EMS2015-245 Big data in the context of Euskalmet activities Santiago Gaztelumendi, Jose Daniel Gomez de Segura, Kepa Otxoa de Alda, Judith Orue, Jesus Torres, José Antonio Aranda Basque Meteorolgy Agency (EUSKALMET), TECNALIA

R&I, Energy and Environment Division, Meteorology Posters Wednesday Area

GB2: EMS2015-413 SINOBAS, a tool for collaborative mapping applied to observation of “Singular" weather phenomena Delia Gutiérrez Rubio, Jesús Riesco Martín, Salvador Ponce Gutiérrez AEMET, Sevilla, Spain ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME SPS3

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 62 Poster Conference Programme – Wednesday

Applications of Meteorology

ECAM2/CE3 Delivery and ECAM5/ASI20 Reducing Weather communication of impact based Risks to Transport: air, sea and forecasts and risk based warnings land

Conveners: Dee Cotgrove, Haleh Kootval Convener: Fraser Ralston Co-Convener: Tanja Cegnar Co-Conveners: Thomas Hauf, Christine Le Bot Poster Area: Sofia I Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Dee Cotgrove/Haleh Kootval Chairperson(s): Christine LeBot

Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Introduction: 12:45, Sofia III Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 P6: EMS2015-458 Delivery and communication of severe weather events P7: EMS2015-152 in Basque Country: the Euskalmet case. Low visibility now-casting based on statistical methods Santiago Gaztelumendi, Iñaki Orbe, Onintze Salazar, at Vienna airport Ana Lopez, José Antonio Aranda, Pedro Anitua Philipp Kneringer, Sebastian J. Dietz, Georg J. Mayr, Basque Meteorology Agency (EUSKALMET), Achim Zeileis

Posters Wednesday TECNALIA R&I, Energy and Environment Division, Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, University Meteorology Area Innsbruck, Austria ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ECAM2/CE3 P8: EMS2015-533 Forecasting Low-Visibility Conditions with Tree-Based Statistical Models Sebastian J. Dietz, Philipp Kneringer, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeilleis Institute of Atmospheric Science, University of Innsbruck, Austria ([email protected])

P9: EMS2015-594 L Probability Distribution Function and One Self- Comparison Theoretical Standard of Dry and Wet Index Wanli Wang, Juan Peng Wuhan University,School of Resource and Environmental Science,Wuhan,China,430079, Research Centre of climate and atmospheric environment, Wuhan, China ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ECAM5/ASI20

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Wednesday 63

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions

ASI11 Interfacing hydrological and ASI13 Urban Climate meteorological models in forecasting system Convener: Martin Wattenbach Co-Conveners: Dr. Martin Rumberg, Sascha Henninger Poster Area: Sofia I Convener: Bodo Ahrens Chairperson(s): Martin Rumberg Co-Conveners: Massimiliano Zappa, Herbert Formayer Introduction: 16:00, Vitosha Poster Area: Sofia I Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Chairperson(s): B. Ahrens

Introduction: 10:15, Vitosha P51: EMS2015-3 Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Silver-linden trees - the perfect urban tree specie? Timo Wundsam, Sascha M. Henninger P47: EMS2015-126 University of Kaiserslautern, Dept. of Physical Ensemble-based land surface data assimilation with Geography, Kaiserslautern, Germany TERRA ([email protected]) Julian Toedter, Bodo Ahrens University of Frankfurt, Institute for Atmospheric and P52: EMS2015-195

Environmental Sciences, Frankfurt am Main, Germany On the Development of Urban Adaptation Strategies Posters Wednesday ([email protected]) Using Ecosystem-based Approaches to Adaptation - Impact Evaluation P48: EMS2015-512 Jana Blumelova, Premysl Derbek, Jaroslav Resler, Postprocessing of medium range hydrological ensemble Pavel Jurus, Pavel Hrubes forecasts making use of reforecasts Faculty of Transportation Sciences, Department of Joris Van den Bergh, Emmanuel Roulin Transport Telematics, Czech Technical University in RMI Belgium ([email protected]) Prague, Czech Republic ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI11 P53: EMS2015-442 Impact of the Land-Use Data on the Simulation of the Bucharest Urban Heat Island Using the WRF Modelling System ASI12/OBS2 Sub-kilometre Scale Amalia Iriza, Sabina Stefan, Rodica Claudia Dumitrache Precipitation Variability and its University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, Impact on Hydrology Atmospheric Physics, Bucharest, Romania ([email protected]) Convener: Katharina Lengfeld Co-Conveners: Marco Clemens, Marie-claire ten P54: EMS2015-479 Veldhuis, Auguste Gires, Sylvia Bohnenstengel Analysis of Bucharest’s Urban Heat Island between Poster Area: Sofia I 1961 - 2013 Chairperson(s): Marco Clemens, Katharina Lengfeld Simona Andrei, Sabina Stefan, Nicu Barbu, Valentin Introduction: 12:30, Vitosha Florin Benciu Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 National Institute of R&D in Optoelectronics, Remote Sensing Department, Magurele - Bucharest, Romania P49: EMS2015-133 ([email protected]) Quantifying errors in radar rainfall estimates using a data assimilation method P55: EMS2015-529 Claire Merker, Marco Clemens, Katharina Lengfeld, Climate change adaptation potentials in Budapest - the Felix Ament roles of block rehabilitation and urban vegetation Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Csenge Dian, Cathy Fricke, Zsuzsanna Dezsö, Judit Germany ([email protected]) Bartholy, Rita Pongrácz Eötvös Loránd University, Dept. of Meteorology, P50: EMS2015-526 Budapest, Hungary Analysis of convective storms in Estonia based on the data from polarimetric weather radars and lightning END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI13 detectors Tanel Voormansik, Piia Post University of Tartu, Institute of Physics, Estonia ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI12/OBS2

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 64 Poster Conference Programme – Wednesday

ASI14 Meteorological processes, P60: EMS2015-459 Preliminary analysis of aerosols optical properties at the atmospheric composition and coastal site Lamezia Terme, in central Mediterranean area, integrating data of different instruments pollution Teresa Lo Feudo, Daniel Gullì, Luca Tiriolo, Paolo Cristofanelli, Angela Marinoni, Paolo Bonasoni, Claudia Convener: Charles Chemel Roberta Calidonna Co-Conveners: Martin Piringer, Astrid Manders, ISAC-CNR, UOS of Lamezia Terme, Italy Alexander Baklanov ([email protected]) Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Martin Piringer P61: EMS2015-183 Introduction: 12:30, Kyoto TransClim: A fast climate-response-model for Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 evaluating new developments in road traffic

Vanessa Rieger, Volker Grewe P56: EMS2015-11 DLR, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Wessling, Numerical study of the air quality in the city of Sofia - Germany ([email protected]) some preliminary results Ivelina Georgieva, Georgi Gadzhev, Kostadin Ganev, P62: EMS2015-191 Maria Prodanova, Dimiter Syrakov, Nikolay Miloshev Application of PCA and FA models for source National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and apportionment of PM10 in Sofia Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Blagorodka Veleva, Elena Hristova, Maria Kolarova, Emilia Nikolova, Raliza Valcheva

Posters Wednesday Bulgaria ([email protected]) NationNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, P57: EMS2015-472 NIMH-BAS, Tsarigradsko sh. 66, Sofia, Bulgaria Precipitation Chemistry in the Bulgaria-Turkey Cross - ([email protected]) Border Region for Different Synoptic Situations Emilia Georgieva, Ilker Oruc, Elena Hristova, Krum P63: EMS2015-24 Velchev, Hristina Kirova, Valeri Nikolov, Damyan High resolution modeling of the upper troposphere and Barantiev, Dimiter Syrakov, Maria Prodanova, Ekaterina lower stratosphere region over the Arctic – GEM-AC Batchvarova, Blagorodka Veleva, Anton Petrov, Rozeta simulations for current climate with and without aviation Neikova, Hristomir Branzov, Sevdalina Turmanova, emissions. Svetlana Tonkova, Maria Kolarova, Iglika Etropolska, Magdalena Porebska, Joanna Struzewska, Jacek Kiril Slavov Kaminski National Istitute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Warsaw Univerity of Technology, Environmental Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria Engineering, Warsaw, Poland ([email protected]) ([email protected])

P58: EMS2015-21 P64: EMS2015-531 Short term forecast of Total Ozone Content over Simulating present and future aerosol-cloud interactions Bulgaria based on autocorrelation analysis using a regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM Petya Kaleyna, Plamen Mukhtarov, Nikolay Miloshev Armelle Reca Remedio, Natalia Sudarchikova, Claas NIGGG - Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Physics of Teichmann, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Daniela Jacob, Atmosphere, Sofia, Bulgaria Guy Brasseur ([email protected]) Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany P59: EMS2015-559 ([email protected]) A preliminary Analysis of green-house gases at the coastal site Lamezia Terme, in central Mediterranean P65: EMS2015-173 area, using data of different instruments Impact of urban emissions on tropospheric chemistry Daniel Gullì, Teresa Lo Feudo, Ivano Ammoscato, and climate Elenio Avolio, Rosamaria Calaudi, Stefania Montesanti, Peter Huszar, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka Paolo Bonasoli, Paolo Cristofanelli, Claudia Roberta Charles University, Meteorology & environment Calidonna protection, Prague, Czech Republic CNR - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ([email protected]) Lamezia Terme, Italy END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI14

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Wednesday 65

Climate

Monitoring climate and climate P72: EMS2015-356 Recent improvements to ECA&D and E-OBS change Gerard van der Schrier, Else van den Besselaar, Christiana Photiadou, Albert Klein Tank, Ge Verver Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, CL1 Climate monitoring; data Netherlands ([email protected]) rescue, management, quality and P73: EMS2015-369 homogenization Quality control of the RMI’s AWS wind observations Cedric Bertrand Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Climatology, Convener: Manola Brunet-India Brussels, Belgium ([email protected]) Co-Conveners: Hermann Mächel, Victor Venema, Ingeborg Auer, Dan Hollis P74: EMS2015-449 Poster Area: Sofia I Quality Control of the Belgian Historical Weather Data Chairperson(s): Inge Auer, Victor Venema, Charles Delvaux, Olivia Bleeckx, Michel Journée, Manola Brunet Cédric Bertrand Introduction: 16:00, Kyoto Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels,

Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Belgium Posters Wednesday

DARE and climate data management P75: EMS2015-513 Overview and updates of the RHtestsV5 data P68: EMS2015-280 homogenization software package Long-term variability in seasonal march of rainfall at Xiaolan L. Wang, Yang Feng Manila since the late of the 19th century reconstructed Environment Canada, Climate Research Division, by data rescue Toronto, Canada ([email protected]) Ikumi Akasaka, Hisayuki Kubota, Jun Matsumoto, Masumi Zaiki, Esperanza O. Cayanan, Flaviana D. P76: EMS2015-547 Hilario Testing of monthly satellite climate data records on Senshu University, Japan ([email protected] temporal and spatial homogeneity u.ac.jp) Kathrin Graw, Jörg Trentmann, Rainer Hollmann Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany P69: EMS2015-602 ([email protected], [email protected], Improving the climate data management in the [email protected]) meteorological service of Angola: Experience from SASSCAL P77: EMS2015-556 Rafael Posada, Jens Riede, Domingos Nascimento, Inhomogeneities in daily data and their removal Francisco Osvaldo S. Neto, Albert Mhanda, Samuel Victor Venema, Enric Aguilar, Renate Auchmann, Machua, Frank Kaspar Ingeborg Auer, Theo Brandsma, Barbara Chimani, Alba Deutscher Wetterdienst, National Climate Monitoring, Gilabert, Olivier Mestre, Andrea Toreti, Gregor Offenbach, Germany ([email protected]) Vertacnik University of Bonn, Meteorological institute, Germany P70: EMS2015-636 ([email protected]) Rescue and quality control of European sub-daily data Linden Ashcroft, Joan R. Coll, Mercè Castellà, Peter Miscellaneous Domonkos, Enric Aguilar, Javier Sigró, Manola Brunet- India P78: EMS2015-357 Centre for Climate Change, Geography Department, Evolution of temperature and precipitation in France University Rovira i Virgili, Tortosa, Spain since the 1950s a new homogenised dataset ([email protected]), Climatic Research Unit, Brigitte Dubuisson, Anne-Laure Gibelin, Lola Corre, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Thumette Madec Anglia, Norwich, UK Meteo-France, DCLIM/DEC, Toulouse Cedex, France ([email protected]) Quality Control and Homogenisation P79: EMS2015-520 P71: EMS2015-326 Variability of solar radiation in a Mediterranean city Data quality of Central Andean temperature and (Lecce, Southern Italy) precipitation measurements Riccardo Buccolieri, Alessandro Rizzo, Silvana Di Stefan Hunziker, Stefanie Gubler, Clara Oria, Delia Sabatino, Piero Lionello Acuña, Juan Calle, Isabel Moreno, Marcos Andrade, University of Salento, DISTEBA, Lecce, Italy Fernando Velarde, Stefan Broennimann, Mischa Croci- ([email protected]) Maspoli, Thomas Konzelmann, Gualberto Carrasco Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 66 Poster Conference Programme – Wednesday

P80: EMS2015-268 P112: EMS2015-238 Spatial distribution of water surface evaporation, Analysis of Subtropical Cyclones within the Notheastern potential evapotranspiration an climatic indicators of Atlantic humidification in Slovakia Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Francisco Valero, Katarína Mikulová, Maros Turna, Peter Kajaba, Pavel Francisco Martín-León, Jenni Louise Evans Stastny, Pavol Nejedlík Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Castilla- Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava, La Mancha, Toledo, Spain ([email protected]) Slovakia ([email protected]) P113: EMS2015-342 P81: EMS2015-270 Aerosol type assessment at Magurele (Romania) based Spatial distribution of the hazardous atmospheric on remote sensing measurements and large scale phenomena in Slovakia circulation patterns Katarína Mikulová, Pavel Stastny, Pavol Nejedlík, Simona Andrei, Nicu Barbu, Anca Nemuc, Ioannis

Gabriela Ivanáková Binietoglou, Alexandru Dandocsi, Horatiu Stafanie Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava, National Institute of R&D in Optoelectronics, Remote Slovakia ([email protected]) Sensing Department, Magurele - Bucharest, Romania ([email protected]) END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CL1 P114: EMS2015-401 Daily maximum winter temperature distributions in

Romania and their link to the large-scale atmospheric Understanding processes and circulation Posters Wednesday Cristian Necula, Sabina Stefan, Marius Birsan climate change University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, Atmospheric Physics, Bucharest, Romania ([email protected]) CL7 Synoptic climatology P115: EMS2015-503 Seasonal wind variability in South Italy by comparing Conveners: Radan Huth, Rasmus Benestad Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and ground base Poster Area: Sofia I stations and a correlation with NAO North Atlantic Introduction: 16:00, Sofia II Oscillation Index Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Rosamaria Calaudi, Teresa Lo Feudo, Elenio Avolio, Daniel Gullì, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Anna Maria P110: EMS2015-70 Sempreviva Thermodynamic configurations associated with heavy CNR - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, rainfall in Eastern Romania Lamezia Terme, Italy, Wind Energy Department, Daniel Carbunaru, Sorin Burcea Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Romania END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CL7

P111: EMS2015-198 Mechanism of Circulation over Europe in Case of Heavy Rainfalls and Floods in Central Europe Marjan Sandev Czech Republic ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Wednesday 67

Measurements and Observations

OBS3/ASI19 Airborne meteorology (co-organized)

Convener: Clemens Drüe Co-Conveners: Jens Bange, Paulina Valtchvanova Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Clemens Drüe Introduction: 12:45, Vitosha

Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00

P118: EMS2015-131 Validation of wind profiles generated by Dopler Weather radar as a tool for diagnostic of wind conditions in Sofia Airport approach zone Rosen Penchev, Elisaveta Peneva, Orlin Gueorguiev, Ekaterina Batchvarova Bulgarian Air Trafic Services Authority, Sofia, Bulgaria ([email protected]) Posters Wednesday

P119: EMS2015-590 Numerical simulations of fog cases at Sofia airport for 2011-2014 Ilian Manafov, Guergana Guerova Bulgaria ([email protected]) BULATSA

P120: EMS2015-607 Aeronautical Meteorological Services in BULATSA Paulina Valtchanova, Rosen Penchev Bulgarian Air Trafic Services Authority, Sofia, Bulgaria, ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME OBS3/ASI19

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 68 Conference Programme – Thursday

Thursday, 10 September 2015

Room Sofia II Sofia III Kyoto Vitosha Room

NWP2: Numerical OBS1/ASI8: CL2: Spatial Climatology aspects and physical CE1: Media and Atmospheric to be continued at 17:00 parametrization Communication measurements from the integration local to the regional

10:15: Poster Introduction 09:00 Poster introduction I 09:00–10:30 09:00–10:30 scale 10:15 Poster introduction II

10:30 Coffee Break 10:30

NWP4: Probabilistic and OBS1/ASI8 CE1 CL10: The Copernicus ensemble forecasting at continued continued Climate Change Service short and medium-range implemented by ECMWF

12:45: Poster Introduction 12:50: Poster Introduction 11:00–13:00 11:00–13:00 12:45: Poster Introduction

13:00 Lunch Break 13:00

ECAM3: Forecast CL6: Global and regional ASI16: Energy Verification of High- reanalyses Meteorology

Impact Weather

14:00–16:00 14:00–16:00

P10: Poster Introduction P11: Poster Introduction P12: Poster Introduction 16:00 16:00 CL6 and CL10 ASI16 - part I ECAM3

Poster Session & Coffee Break I Foyer and Room Sofia I

Poster authors in attendance time for the following sessions: ASI programme group: ASI16 - part I (P26 - P36) CL programme group: CL2 (P48 - P51), CL6 (P52 - P55), CL10 (P58 - P61)

CE programme group: CE1 (P62 - P63)

16:15–17:00 16:15–17:00 OBS programme group: OBS1/ASI8 (P64 - P74) NWP programme group: NWP2 (P75 - P81), NWP3 (P82 - P84), NWP4 (P85 - P88)

NWP3: Data assimilation ASI16 ECAM3 and use of observations CL2 continued in meteorology & continued oceanography

…to be continued Friday …to be continued Friday

17:00–18:30 17:00–18:30 18:15: Poster Introduction

Room Sofia II Sofia III Kyoto Vitosha Room 19:30 Conference Dinner by registration only

In the detailed daily programme (on page 69 to 84) the related ECAM, ASI, CL, CE, OBS and NWP sessions are listed in the following order: ECAM3, ASI16, CL2, CL6, CL10, CE1, OBS1/ASI8, NWP2, NWP3, NWP4.

Poster display time Thursday to Friday Authors are kindly asked to put up their posters as soon as possible within the allocated display time in order to enable the conference participants to view their posters at any time within the display days, and to take them down on Friday between 13:00–14:00. Posters that have not been removed within this dismantling time will be removed and disposed off.

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Thursday 69

Applications of Meteorology ECAM3 Forecast Verification of 15:45–16:00: EMS2015-105 Challenge to Develop and Demonstrate New User- High-Impact Weather Oriented Forecast Verification Metrics Elizabeth Ebert, Thomas Haiden, Barbara Brown, Martin Goeber, Marion Mittermaier, Pertti Nurmi Convener: Pertti Nurmi Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia Co-Convener: Martin Göber ([email protected]) Lecture Room: Kyoto 16:00 Coffee break 14:00–16:00 17:00–18:30 Chairperson(s): Pertti Nurmi Chairperson(s): Martin Göber 14:00–14:15: EMS2015-299 Is there a limit to forecast accuracy? The impact of Sochi Olympics: FROST 2014 temporal sampling Marion Mittermaier, David Stephenson 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-577 Met Office, Weather Science, Exeter, United Kingdom The Framework of the WMO/WWRP FROST-2014 ([email protected]) Forecast Verification Setup and Activities (solicited) Pertti Nurmi, Anastasia Bundel, Tatiana Dmitrieva, 14:15–14:30: EMS2015-485 Dmitry Kiktev, Anatoly Muraviev, Alexander Smirnov, Spurious skill? Varying event frequencies, non- Evgeny Vasilyev, Larisa Nikitina, Tatiana Bazlova, collapsibility and Simpson’s Paradox in forecast Nikolai Bocharnikov, Suleiman Mostmandy verification Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Roger Harbord ([email protected]) Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom ([email protected]) 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-150

Verification of official operational forecasts for the Sochi OralsThursday 14:30–14:45: EMS2015-570 Olympics A new verification method for assessing competing Anatoly Muraviev, Dmitri Kiktev, Tatiana Dmitrieva, forecast performance with timing errors Anastasia Bundel, Alexander Smirnov Eric Gilleland, Gregory Roux, Barbara G. Brown, Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet, Moscow Tressa L. Fowler National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research 17:30–17:45: EMS2015-576 Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States End-user focused verification of precipitation nowcast ([email protected]) systems during the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics Larisa Nikitina, Suleiman Mostmandy, Pertti Nurmi 14:45–15:00: EMS2015-261 Aviamettelecom of Roshydromet, Russian Federation Verification of the accuracy and timeliness of Canadian Weather Warnings using the Weather Warning Index 17:45–18:00: EMS2015-364 Laurence Wilson, Nelson Shum, Tim Bullock Performance of deterministic numerical weather Environment Canada, Associate Scientist Emeritus, forecasts during the FROST-2014 project field Canada ([email protected]) campaign Anastasia Bundel, Anatoly Muraviev, Pertti Nurmi, 15:00–15:15: EMS2015-430 Dmitry Kiktev, Alexander Smirnov, Andrea Montani Verification of wind gust warnings at DWD Hydrometeorological Research Centre of Russia, Cristina Primo, Guido Schröder, Bernhard K. Reichert, Moscow, Russian Federation ([email protected]) Dirk Heizenreder Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-155 ([email protected]) Verification of high impact weather forecasts in the region of Sochi-2014 Olympic Games 15:15–15:30: EMS2015-204 Anatoly Muraviev, Dmitri Kiktev, Anastasia Bundel Probabilistic SAL - Evaluating the spatial properties of Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet, Moscow probabilistic precipitation simulations Sabine Radanovics, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Eric Sauquet 18:15–18:30: EMS2015-154 LSCE/IPSL, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur- On the spatial verification of FROST-2014 precipitation Yvette, France ([email protected]) forecast fields Anatoly Muraviev, Anastasia Bundel, Dmitri Kiktev, 15:30–15:45: EMS2015-474 Nikolay Bocharnikov, Tatiana Bazlova Ensemble verification of cloud tracks Hydrometcentre of Russia/Roshydromet, Moscow Felix Fundel Deutscher Wetterdienst, Research & Development, ORAL PROGRAMME ECAM3 CONTINUES FRIDAY Offenbach, Germany ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 70 Oral Conference Programme – Thursday

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions

ASI16 Energy Meteorology 15:45–16:00: EMS2015-22 Climatology of low-level jets from reanalysis and observations Convener: Sven-Erik Gryning Minttu Tuononen, Victoria Sinclair, Timo Vihma, Ewan Co-Conveners: Ekaterina Batchvarova; Lucien Wald; O’Connor, Ville Vakkari, Lauri Laakso Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Lecture Room: Sofia III ([email protected])

14:00–16:00 16:00 Coffee break

Chairperson(s): Sven-Erik Gryning 17:00–18:30

14:00–14:15: EMS2015-127 Chairperson(s): Ekaterina Batchvarova The full scale spectrum of the boundary layer wind Xiaoli Larsen, Søren E. Larsen, Erik Lundtang 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-100 Petersen Wind and solar energy potential in Bulgaria - some computer simulations results 14:15–14:30: EMS2015-537 Georgi Georgiev, Kostadin Ganev, Georgi Gadzhev, Wind profile modelling using WAsP and ’tall’ wind Nikolay Miloshev, Dimiter Syrakov, Maria Prodanova measurements National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Rogier Floors, Mark Kelly, Ib Troen, Alfredo Peña, Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Sven-Erik Gryning Bulgaria ([email protected]) DTU, Wind Energy, Department of Wind Energy, Roskilde, Denmark ([email protected]) 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-621 Dependence of Weibull distribution parameters on the 14:30–14:45: EMS2015-572 CNR threshold in wind lidar data

OralsThursday Producing an atlas of the wind at a height of 100 m Sven-Erik Gryning, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Rogier Gertie Geertsema, Henk van den Brink, Mark Savenije Floors, Alfredo Peña DTU Wind Energy 14:45–15:00: EMS2015-348 Large eddy simulation application with the mesoscale 17:30–17:45: EMS2015-498 model RAMS for wind Energy studies in complex Mesoscale wind fluctuations and their correlation with terrain: a study of the Askervein hill solar variability Nicolas Barranger, Platon Patlakas, Christina Kalogeri, Anna Mehrens, Lueder von Bremen, Detlev Christos Stathopoulos, George Kallos Heinemann University of Athens, Greece ([email protected]) University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics, Forwind, Oldenburg, Germany ([email protected]) 15:00–15:15: EMS2015-366 On the influence of fetch on wind and stability 17:45–18:00: EMS2015-351 conditions in the North and Baltic Sea Handling of subpixel structures in the application of Martin Dörenkämper, Gerald Steinfeld, Hauke Wurps, satellite derived irradiance data for solar energy system Detlev Heinemann analysis - a review Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg,, Institute of Hans Georg Beyer Physics, ForWind - Center for Wind Energy Research, University of Agder, Inst. of Engineering, Department of Oldenburg, Germany (martin.doerenkaemper@uni- Engineering and Science, Grimstad, Norway (hans- oldenburg.de) [email protected])

15:15–15:30: EMS2015-329 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-288 Investigation Of The Flow Over An Escarpment With Validation of CM SAF surface solar radiation datasets Regard To Wind-Energy Research Using Small over Finland and Sweden Remotely Piloted Aircraft Aku Riihela, Thomas Carlund, Joerg Trentmann, Alexander Rautenberg, Norman Wildmann, Joe Smith, Richard Mueller, Anders Lindfors Jens Bange Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland Center for Applied Geoscience, Eberhard Karls ([email protected]) Universität Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany ([email protected]) 18:15–18:30: EMS2015-327 Quantification of Solar Surface Radiation in the Alps 15:30–15:45: EMS2015-565 Jochen Wagner, Reto Stöckli, Armin Costa, Roberto Statistical methods to develop skillful probabilistic wind Monsorno, David Moser, Giorgio Belluardo, Georg power forecasts Niedrist Lüder von Bremen, Constantin Junk, Stephan Späth, EURAC Research, Institute for Applied Remote Detlev Heinemann Sensing, Bolzano, Italy Universität Oldenburg, ForWind, Oldenburg, Germany ([email protected]) ORAL PROGRAMME ASI16 CONTINUES FRIDAY

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Thursday 71

Climate

Monitoring climate and climate 17:00–18:30 change Chairperson(s): Christoph Frei

17:00–17:15: EMS2015-71 Hourly precipitation extremes versus temperature in CL2 Spatial Climatology Europe Peter Siegmund, Gerard van der Schrier Convener: Ole Einar Tveito Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Co-Conveners: Mojca Dolinar; Christoph Frei Netherlands ([email protected]) Lecture Room: Sofia II 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-632 09:00–10:30 Meteo: package for automated spatio-temporal mapping Milan Kilibarda, Branislav Bajat, Aleksabder Sekulic Chairperson(s): Ole Einar Tveito University of Belgrade, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Belgrade, 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-625 Serbia High resolution hourly gridded temperature dataset for Germany 17:30–17:45: EMS2015-226 Stefan Krähenmann, Andreas Walter Determining the accuracy of gridded daily rainfall Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany amounts Timothy Legg 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-219 Met Office, Climate Research, Exeter, United Kingdom Spatial interpolation of meteorological variables for ([email protected]) snow and hydrological modelling Cristian Lussana, Jess Andersen, Tuomo Saloranta, 17:45–18:00: EMS2015-61

Thomas Skaugen, Ole Einar Tveito Long-term consistent grid data for temperature in OralsThursday Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Section for Data Switzerland and Spatial Analysis, Oslo Francesco Isotta, Michael Begert, Christoph Frei MeteoSwiss, Federal Office of Meteorology and 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-241 Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland Observed spatial and temporal variability of precipitation ([email protected]) and drought in the Eastern Mediterranean Shifa Mathbout, Joan Albert López Bustins, Javier 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-402 Martin Vide Thermal conditions and oscillation patterns in the region University of Barcelona, Physical Geography and of Central Europe in years 1918-2010 Regional Geographical Analysis, Barcelona, Spain Zbigniew Szwejkowski, Ewa Draganska, Iwona ([email protected]) Cymes, Stanislaw Suchecki Warmia and Mazury University in Olsztyn, Poland 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-501 Radar-derived precipitation products for forecasting of 18:15–18:30: EMS2015-611 floods, landslides and avalanches Long-term gridded temperature data for Norway Cristian Lussana, Christoffer A. Elo, Kolbjørn Ole Einar Tveito, Hanna Szewczyk-Bartnicka Engeland, Jean-Marie Lepioufle, Snorre Stavik Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Climatology Rønning, Ole Einar Tveito Division, Oslo, Norway ([email protected]) Norwegian Meteorological Institute END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CL2 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-216 Mapping extreme precipitation return levels in Switzerland Christoph Frei, Anne Schindler, Sophie Fukutome Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland ([email protected])

10:15–10:30: Introduction to posters

10:30 Coffee break

ORAL PROGRAMME CL2 CONTINUES AT 17:00

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 72 Oral Conference Programme – Thursday

Understanding processes and Research and services for socio- climate change economic sectors

CL6 Global and regional CL10 The Copernicus Climate reanalyses Change Service implemented by ECMWF Convener: A. K. Kaiser-Weiss Co-Conveners: Eric Bazile; Leopold Haimberger; Ge Conveners: J.-N. Thepaut; Dick Dee Verver; Dick Dee Lecture Room: Sofia II Lecture Room: Sofia II

11:00–13:00 14:00–16:00 Chairperson(s): Jean-Noel Thepaut 14:00–14:30: EMS2015-627

Progress in climate reanalysis (solicited) 11:00–11:15: EMS2015-328 Dick Dee The Copernicus Programme and Climate Change ECMWF, Reading, UK (solicited)

Mauro Facchini, Hugo Zunker, Bernard Pinty 14:30–14:45: EMS2015-142 European Commission

Development of the regional UERRA reanalysis

systems and the output validation 11:15–11:30: EMS2015-377 Per Unden, Manola Brunet, Dale Barker, Andrea Kaiser-Weiss, Albert Klein Tank, Phil Jones How to incorporate expert and empirical knowledge to C3S? Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino Sciences, University of East Anglia (UEA), Norwich, UK AEMET, Spain ([email protected])

OralsThursday 14:45–15:00: EMS2015-48 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-322 The Met Office Ensemble of Regional Reanalyses Peter Jermey The regional reanalysis activities in UERRA to support Copernicus climate change services UK Met Office, Data Assimilation and Ensembles, Per Unden, Manola Brunet, Dale Barker, Andrea Exeter, United Kingdom Kaiser-Weiss, Albert Klein Tank, Phil Jones ([email protected]) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

15:00–15:15: EMS2015-118 (SMHI), Norrkoping, Sweden

Added value of a new high-resolution ensemble 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-603 nudging reanalysis system Lilo Bach, Christoph Schraff, Jan Keller, Andreas Use of a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations to depict future climate change in Sweden Hense Erik Kjellström, Lars Bärring, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav University of Bonn, Germany ([email protected]) Strandberg, Renate Wilcke

15:15–15:30: EMS2015-206 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrköping, Sweden Uncertainties in the surface variables from an ensemble ([email protected]), Stockholm University, of reanalyses under UERRA project Cornel Soci, Eric Bazile Department of Meteorology

Météo-France, CNRM/GMAP, Toulouse, France 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-595 ([email protected]) Added value of regional climate modeling over areas

15:30–15:45: EMS2015-374 characterized by complex terrain- Precipitation over the Alps Using reanalysis fields of 10m winds and 2m Csaba Torma, Filippo Giorgi, Erika Coppola temperature to characterize the representativeness of The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical German station observations Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss, Vera Heene, Michael Physics, Earth System Physics Section, Trieste, Italy ([email protected]) Borsche, Frank Kaspar

DWD, National climate monitoring, Offenbach, Germany 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-193 ([email protected]) Addressing global demands of water, energy and food

15:45–16:00: EMS2015-434 with satellite based soil moisture data in a changing climate High-resolution regional reanalysis for Europe and Eva Maria Haas, Christian Briese, Wolfgang Wagner, Germany: Evaluation and Applications Sabrina Wahl, Jan Keller, Christian Ohlwein, Andreas Wouter Dorigo, Werner Mücke, Richard Kidd, Andreas Walli, Annett Bartsch, Stefan Schneider Hense, Petra Friederichs, Susanne Crewell GeoVille, Austria ([email protected]) University of Bonn, Meteorological Institute, Bonn,

Germany ([email protected]), Hans-Ertel Centre for

Weather Research - Climate Monitoring Branch

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Thursday 73

12:30–12:45: EMS2015-438 Information system for adaptation to climate change in Hungary Gabriella Szépszó, Judit Bartholy, Zita Bihari, Attila Kovács, Ákos Németh, Rita Pongrácz Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary ([email protected])

12:45–13:00: EMS2015-564 Potential use of climate information for mitigation and adaptation of the energy sector Robert Vautard Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Institut Pierre- Simon Laplace, Gif sur Yvette, France ([email protected])

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CL10

OralsThursday

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 74 Oral Conference Programme – Thursday

Communication and Education

CE1 Media and Communication 11:00–13:00

Chairperson(s): Cegnar Convener: Tanja Cegnar Lecture Room: Vitosha 11:00–11:15: EMS2015-274 Seasonal forecasting at the Bulgarian weather service: 09:00–10:30 quantifying and communicating uncertainty Ilian Gospodinov Chairperson(s): Cegnar National institute of meteorology and hydrology, Bulgaria ([email protected]) 09:00–09:15: EMS TV Weather Forecast Award 11:15–11:45: EMS2015-630 Martín Barreiro Role of communication in service delivery Gerald Fleming 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-628 Considerations when broadcasting severe weather 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-349 information on television Halo; Met Norway’s weather service for the public Jay Trobec sector KELO TV Solfrid Agersten, Ine-Therese Pedersen, Berit Hagen, Håkon Mjelstad 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-578 Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Metklim, Tromsø, Weather forecasting and visualistion strategy: the Norway ([email protected]) example of "www.meteo.gr" Vassiliki Kotroni, Konstantinos Lagouvardos 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-350 National Observatory of Athens, Institute of How we got comedians to talk about the climate Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Hans Olav Hygen, Kamilla Pedersen, Rasmus

OralsThursday Athens, Greece ([email protected]) Benestad, Bente Wahl Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-43 ([email protected]) User behavior analysis of online meteorological services 12:15–12:30: Atte Harjanne, Tiina Ervasti EMS Outreach & Communication Award Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, Aalto Pierrette Thomet Stott University School of Business, Department of Management Studies, Helsinki, Finland 12:30–12:40: EMS Outreach & Communication examples of good 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-528 practice An overview of the use of Twitter from weather presenters around the world 12:40–12:50: Tomas Molina, Enric Agud Pigue, Panagiotis EMS Journalist Award Giannopoulos, Montserrat Cañas Stéphane Foucart Hellenic Nat. Met. Service, Greece ([email protected]) 12:50–13:00: Poster introduction 10:15–10:30: EMS2015-615 Emergencies in the age of socials END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CE1 Dario Giaiotti, Fulvio Stel Regional Agency for the Environmental Protection of Friuli Venezia Giulia, Regional Center fo Environmental Modeling, Palmanova, Italy ([email protected]), Unione Meteorologica del Friuli Venezia Giulia, via S. Pellico 19, Cividale del Friuli, Italy

10:30 Coffee break

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Thursday 75

Measurements and Observations

OBS1/ASI8 Atmospheric 10:15–10:30: EMS2015-163 METEO-Cert: MeteoSwiss acceptance procedure for measurements from the local to automatic weather stations the regional scale: Concepts, new Joël Fisler, Marlen Kube, Bertrand Calpini MeteoSchweiz, Zurich, Switzerland technologies and scientific ([email protected]) progress 10:30 Coffee break

Convener: Frank Beyrich 11:00–13:00 Co-Convener: Fred C. Bosveld Lecture Room: Sofia III Chairperson(s): F. Bosveld

09:00–10:30 Fluxes

Chairperson(s): N.N. 11:00–11:30: EMS2015-271 Estimating long-term trends in actual evapotranspiration Wind, Rain, and Fog with New Technologies with help of lysimeter data (solicited) Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Anne-Katrin Röseler, 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-107 Thomas Pütz, Harry Vereecken An overview of operational AMV products extracted at Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Agrosphere (IBG-3), EUMETSAT Jülich, Germany ([email protected]) Regis Borde, Olivier Hautecoeur, Manuel Carranza EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-368 ([email protected]) Flux-Gradient Technique with Ammer Valley Surface Layer Measurement Network

09:15–09:30: EMS2015-305 Francesca d’Amico, Joe Smith OralsThursday Wind measurements with smart-phones in the University of Tuebingen, Germany Atmospheric Boundary Layer Cisco de Bruijn, Siebren de Haan, Werner Dierssen, 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-494 Jonatan Leloux, Fred Bosveld Measurements of Mass and Energy Exchange using Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Aircraft-based Sensors Observations and Data Technology, De Bilt, Raymond Desjardins, Devon Worth, Matthias Mauder, Netherlands ([email protected]) Stefan Metzger, Ian MacPherson, Ramesh Srinivasan Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Branch, 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-421 Ottawa, Canada ([email protected]) Improving 2D-Video-Distrometer Performance Characteristics for High Data Rate and Heavy Weather 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-553 Events Radiation and boundary layer measurements during the Martin Schwinzerl, Günter Lammer, Michael partial solar eclipse on March 20, 2015 at Lindenberg, Schönhuber Germany JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsges mbH, Frank Beyrich, Claudia Becker, Klaus Behrens, Lionel DIGITAL, Graz, Austria Doppler, Carmen Köhler, Udo Rummel ([email protected]) Deutscher Wetterdienst, Meteorologisches Observatorium Lindenberg, Tauche - OT Lindenberg, 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-158 Germany ([email protected]) Errors in rainfall measurement using cellular communication networks 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-41 Aart Overeem, Hidde Leijnse, Remko Uijlenhoet How lakes influence the local atmospheric circulation Wageningen University, Hydrology and Quantitative (Young Scientist Award Lecture) Water Management Group, Wageningen, Netherlands Miguel Potes, Rui Salgado, Maria João Costa ([email protected]), Royal Netherlands Instituto de Ciências da Terra ([email protected]) Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-295 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-344 Investigation of the atmospheric boundary layer in the Cellular network infrastructure- the future of fog Laptev Sea area by means of ground-based remote monitoring? sensing techniques and regional climate simulations Pinhas Alpert, Noam David, Omri Sendik, Hagit Pascal Schwarz, Clemens Drüe, Heinemann Günther, Messer Gutjahr Oliver, Makshtas Alexander Tel-Aviv University, Geosciences, Tel-Aviv, Israel University of Trier, Environmental Meteorology, ([email protected]) Germany ([email protected])

12:45–13:00: Poster Introduction

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 76 Oral Conference Programme – Thursday

Numerical Weather Prediction

NWP2 Numerical aspects and NWP3 Data assimilation and use physical parametrization of observations in meteorology integration in NWP models and oceanography

Convener: Daniel Reinert Convener: Alexander Cress Co-Convener: Guy de Morsier Co-Convener: Sarah Dance Lecture Room: Kyoto Lecture Room: Vitosha

09:00–10:30 17:00–18:30

Chairperson(s): Daniel Reinert Chairperson(s): A. Cress/ S L. Dance

09:00–09:15: Introduction to Posters I 17:00–17:15: EMS2015-115 Data assimilation using convective scale covariance 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-164 structures Development of a next generation global model in Clarissa Figura, Liselotte Bach, Jan D. Keller, Andreas Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems Hense Young Kwon Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems 17:15–17:30: EMS2015-317 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-50 Assimilation of MODE-S EHS observations in Impact of small-scale orographic gravity wave drag in HARMONIE the stable boundary layer on cyclone filling in a three- Cisco de Bruijn, Siebren de Haan dimensional NWP model Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI),

OralsThursday Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Michal Kleczek, Liduin Burgering Observations and Data Technology, De Bilt, Wageningen University, Meteorology and Air Quality Netherlands ([email protected]) Section, Wageningen, Netherlands ([email protected]) 17:30–17:45: EMS2015-540 Diagnosing observation error statistics for numerical 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-355 weather prediction Implementation of the Bessel’s method for solar Joanne A. Waller, Sarah L. Dance, Nancy K. Nichols eclipses prediction within the WRF-ARW model University of Reading, School of Mathematical and Alex Montornès, Bernat Codina, John Zack Physical Sciences, Reading, United Kingdom Department of Astronomy and Meteorology, University ([email protected]) of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain ([email protected]) 17:45–18:00: EMS2015-179 Biomass and Soil Moisture simulation and assimilation 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-37 (YSTA) over Hungary Impact of Land-Use Types and Urban Canopy Structure Helga Tóth, Balázs Szintai, László Kullmann on Urban Heat Island via High Resolution WRF Hungarian Meteorological Service, Hungary Modeling: Istanbul Case Study ([email protected]) Yasar Burak Oztaner, Luca Pozzoli, Amir Hakami, Tayfun Kindap, Alper Unal 18:00–18:15: EMS2015-9 Eurasia Institute of Earth Science, Climate and Marine Improving road weather model forecasts by adjusting Science, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey the radiation input ([email protected],[email protected],kindap@itu. Virve Karsisto edu.tr,[email protected]) Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected]) 10:15–10:30: Introduction to Posters II and final discussion 18:15–18:30: Introduction to Posters END OF ORAL PROGRAMME NWP2 END OF ORAL PROGRAMME NWP3

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Thursday 77

NWP4 Probabilistic and ensemble Applications of probabilistic products forecasting at short and medium- 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-12 Probabilistic Predictions in Complex Terrain with an range Analog Ensemble Iris Odak Plenkovic, Luca Delle Monache, Kristian Convener: Andrea Montani Horvath, Mario Hrastinski, Alica Bajic Co-Conveners: Jan Barkmeijer; Fernando Prates Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Lecture Room: Kyoto Croatia

11:00–12:55 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-302 Scenario forecasting using ensembles in water Chairperson(s): Prates/Montani management Tessa van het Schip-Haverkamp, Wim van den Berg, From large scale to convection permitting ensemble Remco van de Beek systems MeteoGroup The Netherlands, Wageningen, Netherlands ([email protected]) 11:00–11:15: EMS2015-224 Stochastic parametrization of boundary layer processes 12:45–12:55: in ENS Poster presentations Pirkka Ollinaho, Martin Leutbecher, Anton Beljaars, Irina Sandu END OF ORAL PROGRAMME NWP4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather

Forecasts ([email protected])

11:15–11:30: EMS2015-108 Limited-area ensemble forecasts during Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics: multi-model vs single-model approach Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, Tiziana Paccagnella

ARPA-SIMC, HydroMeteoClimate Service of Emilia- OralsThursday Romagna Region, Bologna, Italy ([email protected])

11:30–11:45: EMS2015-549 New methods for ensemble generation in COSMO-DE- EPS? Richard Keane, Hendrick Reich, Christoph Schraff DWD, Germany ([email protected])

11:45–12:00: EMS2015-116 Evaluation of a stochastic deep convection parameterization in HarmonEPS Lisa Bengtsson SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden ([email protected])

12:00–12:15: EMS2015-582 How good is ensemble-based calibrated thunderstorm probability prediction over Australia? Harald Richter Research & Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 78 Posters Conference Programme – Thursday

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions

ASI16 Energy Meteorology P32: EMS2015-509 How do regional reanalyses contribute to renewable energy applications? Convener: Sven-Erik Gryning Christopher Frank, Susanne Crewell, Jan Keller, Co-Conveners: Ekaterina Batchvarova, Lucien Wald, Christian Ohlwein Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt Climate Monitoring Branch, Hans-Ertel-Centre for Poster Area: Sofia I Weather Research, Germany, Institute for Geophysics Chairperson(s): Sven-Erik Gryning and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Germany Introduction Part I: 16:00, Sofia III Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 P33: EMS2015-435 Improvement of Solar and Wind forecasting in southern Italy through a multi-model approach P26: EMS2015-409 Elenio Avolio, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Teresa Lo Full-scale wind lidar measurements of the shelter Feudo, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Daniele Contini, behind a fence Stefano Federico Alfredo Peña, Andreas Bechmann, Davide Conti, ISAC-CNR, UOS of Lamezia Terme, Italy Nikolas Angelou, Torben Mikkelsen, Peggy Friis ([email protected]) DTU, Wind Energy, Wind Energy, Roskilde, Denmark ([email protected]) P34: EMS2015-297

Renewable energy production forecasts within the P27: EMS2015-521 ORKA project Studying non frequent wind events for energy Regina Kohlhepp, Jonas von Schumann, Michael applications Buchhold Platon Patlakas, Nicolas Barranger, Dimitris Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach am Main, Diamantis, George Galanis, George Kallos Germany ([email protected]) University of Athens, Department of Physics, Greece P35: EMS2015-199 Posters Thursday P28: EMS2015-504 Forecast of renewable energy with consideration of Statistical analysis of coastal wind profiles - a parallel wind farm power curve and the broken cloud effect with between Ahtopol at the Black Sea and Lamezia Terme PV at the Tyrrenian Sea Armin Raabe, Robby Göhler, Janek Zimmer Damyan Barantiev, Daniel Gulli, Luca Tiriolo, Elenio Universität Leipzig, Institut für Meteorologie, Leipzig, Avolio, Ekaterina Batchvarova, Claudia Roberta Germany ([email protected]) Calidonna, Teresa Lo Feudo, Anna Maria Sempreviva, Mikhail Novitsky P36: EMS2015-93 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Solar and wind variability and complementarity in the Bulgaria Iberian Peninsula using clustering techniques Claudia Gutiérrez Escribano, Miguel Ángel Gaertner P29: EMS2015-499 Ruiz-Valdepeñas, Clemente Gallardo Andrés, Victoria Wettermast Hamburg: Applying Mixing Length Models Gil Alfonso at a Heterogeneous Location University of Castilla-La Mancha, Environmental Heike Konow, Felix Ament, Ingo Lange Sciences Institute, Toledo, Spain Hamburg University, Meteorological Institute, Germany ([email protected]) ([email protected]) END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI16 – PART I P30: EMS2015-101 On some characteristics of the spatial distribution of turbulence components over the Bolund hill determined in wind tunnel compared to full-scale measurements Alvaro Cuerva-Tejero, Cristóbal José Gallego- Castillo, Oscar Lopez-Garcia, Tee Seong Yeow, Sergio Ávila-Sánchez DAVE-Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain ([email protected])

P31: EMS2015-18 Estimation of wind power resources in complex terrain prone to bora and scirocco flows Mario Hrastinski, Kristian Horvath, Alica Bajic, Iris Odak Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Atmospheric research and forecast models development department, Zagreb, Croatia ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Thursday 79

Climate

Monitoring climate and climate Understanding processes and change climate change

CL2 Spatial Climatology CL6 Global and regional reanalyses Convener: Ole Einar Tveito Co-Conveners: Mojca Dolinar, Christoph Frei Convener: A. K. Kaiser-Weiss Poster Area: Sofia I Co-Conveners: Eric Bazile, Leopold Haimberger, Chairperson(s): Ole Einar Tveito Introduction: 10:15, Sofia II Ge Verver, Dick Dee Poster Area: Sofia I Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Introduction: 16:00, Sofia II

Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 P48: EMS2015-387

Spatio-temporal interpolation of sub-daily (6-hour) P52: EMS2015-331 precipitation over Romania for the period 1975-2010 Alexandru Dumitrescu, Marius-Victor Birsan, Ancuta Estimating seasonal to inter-annual variability of 10m and 100m monthly wind speed from station

Manea measurements and global and regional reanalyses over National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Germany Romania ([email protected]) Michael Borsche, Andrea Kaiser-Weiss, Frank Kaspar

P49: EMS2015-591 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany ([email protected]) Spatial covariance functions for the combination of in-

situ temperature observations and surface temperature P53: EMS2015-496 fields from numerical models Cristian Lussana, Ole Einar Tveito, Luca Cantarello Investigating the trends of the Hadley Circulation in Posters Thursday ERA20C Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Meteorology and Roberta D’Agostino, Piero Lionello Climate Department - Division for Climate Services - University of Salento, DISTEBA, Lecce, Italy Section for Data and Spatial Analysis, Oslo, Norway ([email protected]), CMCC, Lecce, Italy ([email protected])

P54: EMS2015-171 P50: EMS2015-425 Extratropical Factors Affecting the summer precipitation Spatial relationships of the monthly, daily and subdaily variability over the Yangtze River Basin in China wind speed and maximum wind gust Xinyu Li, Riyu Lu Pavel Zahradnícek, Petr Stepánek, Radim Tolasz, Jirí State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Hostýnek Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Global Change Research Centre AS, v.v.i., Brno, Brno, Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Czech Republic ([email protected]), Czech Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, University of the Hydrometeorological Institute, Czech Republic Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

P51: EMS2015-597 P55: EMS2015-120 Spatio-temporal analysis of the annual maximum multi- Statistically derived upper-air pseudo-temperatures for day precipitation amounts in Croatia Irena Nimac, Ksenija Cindric Kalin, Melita Percec-Tadic assimilation in reanalyses Lilo Bach, Jan Keller, Christoph Schraff, Andreas Meteorological and hydrological service of Croatia, Hense Croatia ([email protected]) University of Bonn, Germany ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CL2 END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CL6

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 80 Posters Conference Programme – Thursday

Research and services for socio- P59: EMS2015-601 Producing, handling and disseminating information on economic sectors regional climate change at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute: Experiences from CORDEX Erik Kjellström, Lars Bärring, Michael Kolax, Grigory Nikulin CL10 The Copernicus Climate Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Change Service implemented by Rossby Centre, Norrköping, Sweden ([email protected]) ECMWF P60: EMS2015-604

Climate-proofing forest production in Scandinavia Conveners: J.-N. Thepaut, Dick Dee Lars Bärring, Renate Wilcke, Mats Berlin, Bengt Poster Area: Sofia I Andersson Gull, Erik Kjellström Chairperson(s): Jean-Noel Thepaut Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Introduction: 16:00, Sofia II Hydrological Institute, Sweden ([email protected]), Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund

University, Sweden P58: EMS2015-426

Homogenized, gridded observations for better climate P61: EMS2015-375 change services - summary of the CARPATCLIM Proposals of metrics for a more physical evaluation of project climate models Monika Lakatos, Zita Bihari, Tamás Szentimrey, Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino, María J. Casado,

Tamás Kovács, Sándor Szalai, Ákos Németh Asuncion Pastor, M. Carmen Sanchez de Cos, Jose M. Hungarian Meteorological Service, Climate Division, Sánchez-Laulhe, Carlos Jiménez, Petra Ramos Budapest, Hungary ([email protected]) AEMET, Spain

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CL10

Posters Thursday

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Thursday 81

Communication and Education

CE1 Media and Communication

Convener: Tanja Cegnar Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Tanja Cegnar Introduction: 12:50, Vitosha Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00

P62: EMS2015-453 An overview of the use of Facebook in National Weather Services Virginia Palacio, Olatz Principe, Maialen Martija, Santiago Gaztelumendi Basque Meteorolgy Agency (EUSKALMET), TECNALIA R&I, Energy and Environment Division, Meteorology Area

P63: EMS2015-128 An analysis of meteorological factors affecting user

satisfaction In-Gyum Kim, Hye-Min Kim, Ki-Jun Park, Jeong-Yun Kim, Cheol-Hong Park National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Repubic of Korea ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CE1 Posters Thursday

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 82 Posters Conference Programme – Thursday

Measurements and Observations

OBS1/ASI8 Atmospheric P68: EMS2015-548 Upward and downward thermal infrared radiation measurements from the local to determined by orbital data in Amazonia the regional scale: Concepts, new Gabriel de Oliveira, Elisabete Caria Moraes, Yosio Edemir Shimabukuro, Nathaniel Brunsell, Luiz Eduardo technologies and scientific Oliveira e Cruz de Aragao, Gabriel Bertani, Thiago progress Veloso dos Santos National Institute for Space Research, Remote Sensing Division, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil Convener: Frank Beyrich ([email protected]; [email protected]; Co-Convener: Fred C. Bosveld [email protected]; [email protected]; Poster Area: Sofia I [email protected]), University of Kansas, Chairperson(s): N.N. Department of Geography, Lawrence, KS, USA Introduction: 12:45, Sofia III ([email protected]) Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 P69: EMS2015-367 P64: EMS2015-222 Cloud cover estimation optical package: new facility, The wind profile within the surface boundary layer new algorithms, enhanced accuracy and new measured by in situ (anemometric tower) and challenges.

remotesensing (mini-sodar) techniques Mikhail Krinitskiy, Alexey Sinitsyn Gilberto Fisch P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the RAS, Sea Aeronautic and Space Institute, Atmospheric Science Atmosphere Interaction And Climate Laboratory, Division, São José dos Campos, Brazil Moscow, Russian Federation ([email protected]) ([email protected]) P70: EMS2015-614 P65: EMS2015-334 Climate reference stations in Germany: Concept, status A new method to improve the analyzed meteorological and conclusions from parallel measurements Posters Thursday observations with the use of high-resolution remote Frank Kaspar, Klaus-Jürgen Schreiber, Olaf Schulze sensing data Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany Antonio Daniel Sanchis-Dufau ([email protected]) University of Vienna, Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, General Meteorology and Climatology, P71: EMS2015-422 Vienna, Austria ([email protected]) Improved estimates of sensible heat flux by a large aperture scintillometer with the use of real-time Bowen P66: EMS2015-29 ratio Hail detection algorithm derived from weather radar Jung-Hoon Chae, Moon-Soo Park, Min-Hyeok Choi, products Yunyoung Song Nicu Barbu, Sabina Stefan, Cristian Craciun Weather Information Service Engine, Seoul, Korea University of Bucharest, Faculty of Physics, Magurele, ([email protected]) Bucharest, Romania, National Meteorological Administration, Bucharest, Romania P72: EMS2015-483 Evaporation Observations at CESAR: Experience with P67: EMS2015-361 Mini Lysimeters Global solar radiation: comparison of satellite and Fred C. Bosveld, Bernard Voortman, Jan A. Elbers ground based observations on monthly time scale KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands ([email protected]) Petr Skalak, Piotr Struzik, Pavel Zahradnicek, Ales Farda P73: EMS2015-418 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Department of Surface Energy Balance at an Urban Residential Area Climatology, Praha, Czech Republic ([email protected]), in Seoul, Korea Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Brno, Czech Minsoo Kang, Moon-Soo Park, Min-Hyeok Choi, Sung- Republic Hwa Park Weather Information Service Engine, Seoul, Republic of Korea ([email protected])

P74: EMS2015-47 Evaluating the relationship between forest degradation, recovery, and conservation efforts with Landsat imagery in southeastern Brazil Megan Ewert Czech Republic ([email protected])

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME OBS1/ASI8

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Thursday 83

Numerical Weather Prediction

NWP2 Numerical aspects and Introduction to Posters II, 10:15, Kyoto physical parametrization P79: EMS2015-313 integration in NWP models Urbanization Effect on Meteorological Parameters for Istanbul Deniz Hazel Diren, Hüseyin Toros Convener: Daniel Reinert Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey Co-Convener: Guy de Morsier ([email protected]) Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Daniel Reinert P80: EMS2015-167 Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Representation of surface subgrid heterogeneity in ICON using tiles - Impact on forecast quality Introduction to Posters I, 09:00, Kyoto Daniel Reinert, Günther Zängl, Jürgen Helmert, Ekaterina Machulskaya P75: EMS2015-209 German Weather Service, FE1, Offenbach am Main, Numerical simulations of the super cell formed over Germany ([email protected]) Western Bulgaria on 08th of July 2014 Boryana Tsenova, Andrey Bogatchev P81: EMS2015-106 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Impacts of a prognostic large scale cloud scheme on a

Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria global forecasting system ([email protected]) Rae-Seol Park, Song-You Hong Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, P76: EMS2015-46 (YSTA) Seoul, Republic of Korea Numerical study on parameterized and explicit cumulus convection resulted precipitation dependence on initial END OF POSTER PROGRAMME NWP2 soil moisture content at 5 km horizontal resolution Hajnalka Breuer, Júlia Göndöcs Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Meteorology, Posters Thursday Budapest, Hungary ([email protected]) NWP3 Data assimilation and use

P77: EMS2015-166 of observations in meteorology A sensitivity study on the diurnal variation of simulated and oceanography precipitation to cumulus parameterization schemes In-Jin Choi, Emilia Kyung Jin, Ji-Young Han, So-Young Kim, Young-Cheol Kwon Convener: Alexander Cress Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems Co-Convener: Sarah Dance (KIAPS), Seoul, Republic of Korea Poster Area: Sofia I Introduction: 18:15, Vitospha P78: EMS2015-558 Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00 Evaluation of a new autoconversion parameter in a cumulus parameterization scheme P82: EMS2015-412 Ji-Young Han, Song-You Hong Wind Power Data Assimilation in a Regional Model - Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Haves, Wants and Needs Seoul, Republic of Korea ([email protected]) Stefan Declair, Klaus Stephan, Roland Potthast Deutscher Wetterdienst, FE 12 - Data Assimilation, Offenbach, Germany ([email protected])

P83: EMS2015-599 Comparison of EnOI Data Assimilation Into Two Physical Models of The Thermosphere David R. Jackson, Edmund Henley, Sophie A. Murray Met Office, Space Weather Research Group, Exeter, United Kingdom ([email protected])

P84: EMS2015-136 SATIN - Satellite driven Nowcasting system and a high resolution NWP AROME-1km model over the Eastern Alpine area Ingo Meirold-Mautner, Florian Meier, Nauman Khurshid Awan, Martin Suklitsch, Alexander Kann, Christoph Wittmann, Yong Wang Department of forecasting models, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME NWP3

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 84 Posters Conference Programme – Thursday

NWP4 Probabilistic and ensemble

forecasting at short and medium-

range

Convener: Andrea Montani Co-Conveners: Jan Barkmeijer, Fernando Prates Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Montani/Prates Introduction: 12:45, Kyoto Attendance Time: 16:15–17:00

P85: EMS2015-160 Predictability of Heat Wave Occurrence in Korea during Summer 2013 Woo-Seop Lee, Hyun-Ju Lee, Jinho Yoo APEC Climate Center, climate change department, Busan, Republic of Korea ([email protected])

P86: EMS2015-213 Benefits of an ultra large and multiresolution ensemble for estimating available wind energy Jonas Berndt, Charlotte Hoppe, Hendrik Elbern Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Juelich, Germany, Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne, Germany

P87: EMS2015-316 Posters Thursday Improvement of Forecast Guidance by Blending Statistical Guidance with Direct Model Output JunTae Choi, SooHyun Kim, JiYoun Kim NIMR, Korea Meteorological Administration, Republic of Korea ([email protected])

P88: EMS2015-443 A multi-model application for wind prediction in Southern Italy Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Elenio Avolio, Stefano Federico, Oxana Drofa, Tony Christian Landi, Piero Malguzzi, Andrea Buzzi, Paolo Bonasoni ISAC-CNR, UOS of Lamezia Terme, Italy

END OF POSTER PROGRAMME NWP4

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Conference Programme – Friday 85

Friday, 11 September 2015

Room Sofia II Sofia III Kyoto Vitosha Room

CL9/CE7: Creating ASI4: Formulation, national and regional ECAM3: Forecast ASI16: Energy validation and climate services in Verification of High- Meteorology parameterization of Europe through Impact Weather

small-scale processes 09:00–10:30 09:00–10:30 parternships

P13: Poster Introduction P14: Poster Introduction P15: Poster Introduction P16: Poster Introduction 10:30 10:30 CL9/CE7 ASI16 - part II NWP6 ASI4

Poster Session & Coffee Break I Foyer and Room Sofia I

Poster authors in attendance time for the following sessions: ECAM programme group: ECAM3 (P1 - P14)

ASI programme group: ASI4 (P15 - P24), ASI16 - part II (P37 - P47) 10:45–11:30 10:45–11:30 CL programme group: CL9/CE7 (P56 - P57) NWP programme group: NWP6 (P89 - P94) NWP6: Mesoscale Verification Inter- CL9/CE7 ASI16 ASI4 Comparison over continued continued continued

Complex Terrain 11:30–13:00 11:30–13:00 (MesoVICT)

13:00 Small reception & announcement of poster award recipient: 13:15–14:00 I Foyer 13:00

In the detailed daily programme (on page 86 to 95) the related ECAM, ASI, CL, and NWP sessions are listed in the following order: ECAM3, ASI14, ASI16, CL9/CE7, NWP6.

Poster display time Thursday to Friday Authors are kindly asked to put up their posters as soon as possible within the allocated display time in order to enable the conference participants to view their posters at any time within the display days, and to take them down on Friday between 13:00–14:00. Posters that have not been removed within this dismantling time will be removed and disposed off.

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 86 Oral Conference Programme – Friday

Applications of Meteorology

ECAM3 Forecast Verification of

High-Impact Weather

Convener: Pertti Nurmi Co-Convener: Martin Göber Lecture Room: Kyoto

09:00–10:30

Chairperson(s): Laurie Wilson

09:00–09:15: EMS2015-550 Advanced Methods for Climate and Regional Model Validation with Societal Applications Barbara Brown, Eric Gilleland, Caspar Ammann, Tressa Fowler, Randy Bullock NCAR, RAL, Boulder, United States ([email protected])

09:15–09:30: EMS2015-284 Verification of user-oriented monthly and seasonal forecasts Christoph Spirig, Jonas Bhend, Irina Mahlstein, Mark Liniger Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland ([email protected])

09:30–09:45: EMS2015-228

Evaluation of summer temperature and precipitation

predictions from NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast over China Wei Tang, Lifeng Luo, Zhaohui Lin, Eric Wood China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,

Beijing, China ([email protected]) OralsFriday

09:45–10:00: EMS2015-307 Ensemble versus deterministic performance: what are the benefits for thresholds of interest from a weather hazards/impacts perspective Marion Mittermaier, Gabriella Csima Met Office, Weather Science, Exeter, United Kingdom ([email protected])

10:00–10:15: EMS2015-600 Probabilistic predictability of weather types in operational ensemble forecasts and the Lorenz model Martin Göber, Eric Förster, Peter Nevir, Paul James Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany ([email protected]), Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ)

10:15–10:30: EMS2015-81 Quality Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates from CMA for Grid Precipitation verification Zhao Bin National Meteorological Center, Beijing, 100081,China ([email protected])

END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ECAM3

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Friday 87

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions

ASI4 Formulation, validation and 11:30–13:00 parameterization of small-scale Chairperson(s): Bert Holtslag processes in atmospheric 11:30–12:00: EMS2015-59 modelling Convection across scales and challenges toward high- resolution (solicited) Convener: Gert-Jan Steeneveld Peter Bechtold, Sylvie Malardel, Linus Magnusson, Co-Conveners: Bert Holtslag; Lisa Bengtsson Nils Wedi Lecture Room: Vitosha ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom ([email protected]) 09:00–10:30 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-58 Chairperson(s): Gert-Jan Steeneveld Representation of turbulence in deep convective clouds at gray-zone resolutions 09:00–09:30: EMS2015-10 Antoine Verrelle, Didier Ricard, Christine Lac Why models fail or suceed in representing the Arctic CNRM-GAME (Meteo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, winter boundary layer – a GASS model intercomparison France ([email protected]) (solicited) Felix Pithan, Andrew Ackerman, Wayne Angevine, 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-109 Kerstin Hartung, Luisa Ickes, Thorsten Mauritsen, Brian Representing turbulence in the grey zone Medeiros, Irina Sandu, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Marina Rachel Honnert, Fleur Couvreux, Pascal Marquet, Sterk, Gunilla Svensson, Paul Vaillancourt, Ayrton Dàvid Lancz Zadra CNRM, GMAP, Toulouse, France University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, ([email protected]) United Kingdom ([email protected]) 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-562 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-454 The Impact of Clouds, Land use and Snow Cover on Prediction of nocturnal boundary layer regimes Climate in the Canadian Prairies Raymond Desjardins, Alan Betts, Devon Worth Bas van de Wiel, Ivo Van Hooijdonk, Judith Donda, Arnold Moene, Harm Jonker, Herman Clercx, Fred Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Branch, Bosveld Ottawa, Canada ([email protected]) Eindhoven Technical University, Tilburg, Netherlands ([email protected]) 12:45–13:00: EMS2015-608 Differences in the nocturnal heat budget of an Alpine OralsFriday 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-420 valley in pooling and draining configurations Preliminary results of the GABLS4 intercomparison Gabriele Arduini, Charles Chemel, Chantal Staquet Eric Bazile, Patrick Le Moigne, Fleur Couvreux, Bert University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, United Kingdom, Holtslag, Gunilla Svensson National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Météo-France, CNRM/GAME, Toulouse, France Hertfordshire, Hatfield, United Kingdom ([email protected]) ([email protected])

10:00–10:15: EMS2015-423 END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI4 Sensitivity tests of the surface characteristics in the GABLS4 experiment Patrick Le Moigne, Eric Bazile, Fleur Couvreux, Guylaine Canut, William Maurel CNRM-GAME, Météo-France/CNRS, France ([email protected])

10:15–10:30: EMS2015-217 Surface-soil tiling strategies in JULES Richard Gilham, Heather Ashton, Martin Best Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB United Kingdon ([email protected])

10:30 Coffee break

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 88 Oral Conference Programme – Friday

ASI16 Energy Meteorology 11:30–13:00 Chairperson(s): Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt Convener: Sven-Erik Gryning Co-Conveners: Ekaterina Batchvarova; Lucien Wald; 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-318 Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt Which effective solar zenith angles to use for hourly Lecture Room: Sofia III irradiation measurements? Philippe Blanc, Lucien Wald 09:00–10:30 MINES ParisTech - PSL Research University, Sophia Antipolis cedex, France (lucien.wald@mines- Chairperson(s): Lucien Wald paristech.fr)

09:00–09:15: EMS2015-429 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-67 Cloud, aerosols and the directional distribution of solar Investigating the impact of clouds on solar energy irradiances production - Analyzing different photovoltaic Kristian Pagh Nielsen, Elsa Andersen, Simon Furbo, technologies on different time scales Janne Dragsted, Emily Gleeson Stefanie Meilinger, Ina Neher, Evandro Dresch, Danish Meteorological Institute, Department of Khurshid Hasan, Bernd Evers-Dietze, Dieter Franke Research and Development, Copenhagen, Denmark Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University of Applied Sciences, ([email protected]) Germany ([email protected])

09:15–09:30: EMS2015-211 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-563 Verification of sectoral cloud motion based global and Solar energy lost in a Solar Thermal Energy plant, due direct normal irradiance nowcasting to aerosol extinction between the heliostats and the Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Luca Kraus, Miriam optical receiver Kosmale Thierry ELIAS, Didier RAMON, Laurent DUBUS, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany (marion.schroedter- Charles Bourdil, Rémi Perrin, Emilio Cuevas-Agulló, [email protected]) Taoufik Zaidouni HYGEOS, Lille, France ([email protected]) 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-321 Nowcasting of Direct Normal Irradiance with the High 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-230 Temporal and Spatial Resolution of MSG/SEVIRI Assessing the temporal variability of the surface solar Tobias Sirch, Luca Bugliaro radiation with time-frequency-energy representations Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR, Marc Bengulescu, Philippe Blanc, Lucien Wald Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ([email protected]) MINES ParisTech - PSL Research University, Center for Observation, Impacts, Energy, Sophia Antipolis 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-335 cedex, France ([email protected]) Preliminary assessment of a new SoDa service for real-

OralsFriday time estimates and short-term forecasts of the solar 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-622 radiation Trend evaluations of meteorological variables and solar Claire Thomas, Laurent Saboret, Etienne Wey, global and ultraviolet horizontal irradiation in Spain Philippe Blanc, Lucien Wald Julia Bilbao, Roberto Román, Argimiro de Miguel MINES ParisTech - PSL Research University, Sophia University of Valladolid, Faculty of Sciences, Antipolis cedex, France (lucien.wald@mines- Atmosphere and Energy Laboratory, Spain paristech.fr) 12:45–13:00: EMS2015-175 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-508 A new CM SAF Solar Surface Radiation Climate Data Intraday solar energy forecasting using cloud motion Set derived from Meteosat Satellite Observations observation from satellite combined with WRF Jörg Trentmann, Richard Müller, Uwe Pfeifroth, irradiance forecast Christine Träger-Chatterjee, Roswitha Cremer, Steffen Sylvain Cros, Raphaël Thomas, Mathieu Turpin, Kothe Caroline Lallemand, Nicolas Sébastien, Nicolas Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany Schmutz ([email protected]) Reuniwatt SAS, R&D, Paris, France ([email protected]) END OF ORAL PROGRAMME ASI16

10:15–10:30: EMS2015-490 Forecasting direct and diffuse irradiance with the use of hemispheric sky images Thomas Schmidt, John Kalisch, Elke Lorenz, Detlev Heinemann Carl von Ossietzky Univ. Oldenburg, Physics, Energy Meteorology, Germany ([email protected])

10:30 Coffee break

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Oral Conference Programme – Friday 89

Climate

Research and services for socio- 10:15–10:30: EMS2015-587 Making seasonal prediction information useful for economic sectors application in the energy sector Stefano Materia, Silvio Gualdi Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy ([email protected]) CL9/CE7 Creating national and 10:30 Coffee break regional climate services in Europe through 11:30–13:00 Chairperson(s): Carlo Buontempo Conveners: Clare Goodess; Carlo Buontempo Co-Conveners: Tanja Cegnar; Chris Hewitt; Filipe Lúcio; 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-220 Tomas Halenka; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes The project CLIMANDES - Creating climate services for Lecture Room: Sofia II the Peruvian Andes Stefanie Gubler, Mischa Croci-Maspoli, Thomas 09:00–10:30 Konzelmann, Clara Oria, Gabriela Rosas, Delia Acuña, Mario Rohrer Chairperson(s): Carlo Buontempo Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland ([email protected]) 09:00–09:15: EMS2015-476 Climate services from a user point of view 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-347 Paul-Antoine Michelangeli, Sylvie Parey, Laurent A status on the development of The Norwegian Centre Dubus, Amélie Laugel for Climate Service EDF R&D, Chatou, France Hans Olav Hygen, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Hanne Heiberg 09:15–09:30: EMS2015-333 Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norwegian Centre Tracing the use (and potential use) of seasonal climate for Climate Service, Oslo, Norway

forecasts across Europe ([email protected])

Marta Bruno Soares, Suraje Dessai and the EUPORIAS WP12 Team 12:00–12:15: EMS2015-232 Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and The IMPACT2C web-atlas Environment, University of Leeds, United Kingdom Swantje Preuschmann, Daniela Jacob ([email protected]), Centre for Climate Change Climate Service Center 2.0, Climate System, Hamburg, Economics and Policy, London School of Economics Germany ([email protected]) OralsFriday and Political Science and University of Leeds 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-192 09:30–09:45: EMS2015-51 Weather Derivatives on Human Health: The case of Interaction with users during the development of the OxyAlert KNMI’14 regional climate change scenarios Pablo Fdez-Arroyabe, Falko Schmidt, Lecha Luis Janette Bessembinder, Alexander Bakker, Bart van Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Villa Clara, den Hurk, Bernadet Overbeek CESAM, Cuba KNMI, Netherlands 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-463 09:45–10:00: EMS2015-283 Exploring the effect of weather and climate on official Tailored climate indices can improve seasonal forecasts statistics Irina Mahlstein, Jonas Bhend, Christoph Spirig, Mark Mark McCarthy, Jennifer Davies, Duncan Elliot Liniger Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland ([email protected]) ([email protected]) 12:45–13:00: EMS2015-505 10:00–10:15: EMS2015-392 The World Energy & Meteorology Council: a link Use of seasonal forecasts for water resources between researchers and users of weather and climate management in Spain services in the energy sector Laurent Pouget, Tamara Roldán, Manuel Gomez, Laurent Dubus, Alberto Troccoli, Sue Ellen Haupt, Àngels Cabello, Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino, Beatriz Mohammed Sadeck Boulahya Navascues, Jose Voces, Federico Franco, Pau Comas, EDF R&D, Applied Meteorology and Atmospheric Fernando Pastor, Mª Concepción García-Gómez, Juan Environment, Chatou Cedex, France J. Gil, Delfina Gil, Rogelio Galván ([email protected]) AEMET, Spain END OF ORAL PROGRAMME CL9/CE7

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 90 Oral Conference Programme – Friday

Numerical Weather Prediction

NWP6 Mesoscale Verification 12:15–12:30: EMS2015-229 Spatial verification using the Dual-Tree Complex Inter-Comparison over Complex Wavelet Transform: a MesoVICT case study Terrain (MesoVICT) Alex Deckmyn, Geert Smet, Bert Van Schaeybroeck Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium ([email protected]) Convener: Marion Mittermaier Co-Conveners: Manfred Dorninger; Eric Gilleland 12:30–12:45: EMS2015-561 Lecture Room: Kyoto Towards a simple and easy to interpret wind verification scheme 11:30–13:00 Manfred Dorninger University of Vienna, Department of Meteorology and Chairperson(s): Anastasia Bundel Geophysics, Wien, Austria ([email protected]) 11:30–11:45: EMS2015-560 MesoVICT - overview and current status 12:45–13:00: EMS2015-301 Manfred Dorninger, Marion Mittermaier, Eric Gilleland, Exploring the impact of neighbourhood size and height Barb Brown, Beth Ebert, Laurence Wilson stratification in neighbourhood-based methods using Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom single-site observation ([email protected]) Marion Mittermaier Met Office, Weather Science, Exeter, United Kingdom 11:45–12:00: EMS2015-185 ([email protected]) Spatial verification activities at ARPA-SIMC: first results on MesoVICT cases END OF ORAL PROGRAMME NWP6 Maria Stefania Tesini, Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC, Hydro-Meteo-Climate Regional Service, Bologna, Italy ([email protected])

12:00–12:15: EMS2015-518

Suitability of complex matching criteria in the contiguous rain area analysis: a MesoVICT study on MAP D- PHASE high-impact events Stefano Mariani, Marco Casaioli

Institute for Environmental Protection and Research OralsFriday (ISPRA), Rome, Italy ([email protected]; [email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Friday 91

Applications of Meteorology

ECAM3 Forecast Verification of P9: EMS2015-73 Communicating forecast verification results to decision- High-Impact Weather makers Marianne Giroud Gaillard, Daniel Cattani, Michel Convener: Pertti Nurmi Matter, Anna Faes Co-Convener: Martin Göber MeteoSwiss, Analyses & Forecast, Genève 2, Poster Area: Sofia I Switzerland ([email protected]) Chairperson(s): Pertti Nurmi Introduction: Thursday, 16:00, Kyoto P10: EMS2015-223 Attendance Time: 10:45–11:30 Verification of precipitation forecasts for hydrological modelling for small basins in the Czech Republic P1: EMS2015-98 Martin Vokoun Verification of the MeteoExpert nowcasts Czech Republic ([email protected]) Tatiana Bazlova, Nikolai Bocharnikov IRAM, Russian Federation ([email protected]) P11: EMS2015-243 Study of NWP parameterizations on extreme P2: EMS2015-393 precipitation events over Basque Country Applicability of the FMI Road Weather Model (RWM) for Ivan R. Gelpi, Santiago Gaztelumendi, Sheila use in winter maintenance activities for the Carreño, Roberto Hernandez, Joseba Egaña Dutchhighways Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet), Tecnalia - Sander Tijm, Marcel Molendijk, Virve Karsisto, Evgeny Energy and Environment Division - Meteorology Area. Atlaskin, Pertti Nurmi, Jan Dekker KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands P12: EMS2015-456 Warning/alert/alarm verification in Basque Country: the P3: EMS2015-75 Euskalmet case. Quantifying the effect of radar observational uncertainty Santiago Gaztelumendi, Joseba Egaña, José Antonio on the verification of kilometer-scale NWP precipitation Aranda, Pedro Anitua forecasts using the Fractions Skill Score Basque Meteorolgy Agency (EUSKALMET), TECNALIA Lesley Allison, Marion Mittermaier, Robert Scovell, R&I, Energy and Environment Division, Meteorology Chris Vernon, Katie Norman, Clive Pierce Area Weather Science, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, UK P13: EMS2015-465 P4: EMS2015-194 Weather predictions verification using feature based Verification and uncertainty analysis of clouds and methods precipitation in high resolution models using 3D radar Ioannis Tegoulias, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Stylianos data Kotsopoulos, Stergios Kartsios, Dimitrios Bampzelis, Posters Friday Dan Zhang, Kathrin Wapler, Ulrich Blahak Theodore Karacostas Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of ([email protected]) Meteorology and Climatology, Thessaloniki, Greece ([email protected]) P5: EMS2015-551 The Model Evaluation Tools: Expanded tools for P14: EMS2015-151 forecast evaluation Verification of the Canadian GDPS-YY25 (Global Barbara Brown, Tara Jensen, John Halley Gotway, Deterministic Prediction System) using bootstrapping Paul Kucera, Randy Bullock, Tressa Fowler procedure NCAR, RAL, Boulder, United States ([email protected]) Marcel Vallee Environment Canada, RPN, Dorval, Canada P6: EMS2015-122 ([email protected]) A large-scale model verification and comparison system Thorsten Riess END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ECAM3 W3 Data GmbH, Konstanz, Germany (riess@w3- data.de)

P7: EMS2015-159 Verification of long range drought forecasts Lovro Kalin, Domagoj Mihajlovic, Ksenija Cindric Kalin, Blazenka Matjacic Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia, DHMZ, Zagreb, Croatia ([email protected])

P8: EMS2015-457 Challenges in Verifying Hazard Impact Models Rebecca Hemingway United Kingdom ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 92 Poster Conference Programme – Friday

The Atmospheric System and its Interactions

ASI4 Formulation, validation and P20: EMS2015-541 Improved cloud microphysics parameterization in parameterization of small-scale COSMO-MUSCAT coupled model along with COSP processes in atmospheric satellite simulator Dipu Sudhakar, Johannes Quaas, Ralf Wolke, Jens modelling Stoll, Andreas Muhlbauer, Ina Tegen Institute for Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Convener: Gert-Jan Steeneveld Germany, ([email protected], Co-Conveners: Bert Holtslag, Lisa Bengtsson [email protected]) Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Gert-Jan Steeneveld P21: EMS2015-451 Introduction: 10:30, Vitosha Characterization of low-scale oscillations of wind Attendance Time: 10:45–11:30 velocities and temperature during low-wind conditions Luca Mortarini, Silvia Trini Castelli, Domenico Anfossi, P15: EMS2015-111 Gervasio Degrazia WRF Model Experiments on Local Wind Patterns in ISAC - CNR, Torino, Italy ([email protected]) Petuniabukta, Svalbard Zuzana Chladova, Kamil Laska, Jiri Hosek P22: EMS2015-493 Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Prague, Czech Optimization of PBL schemes in the meso-scale model Republic ([email protected]) WRF for offshore wind conditions based on comparisons to measurements and LES simulations P16: EMS2015-208 Hauke Wurps, Gerald Steinfeld, Jens Tambke, Martin Impact of Planetary Boundary Layer parametrization Dörenkämper scheme and land cover classification on surface ForWind - Center for Wind Energy Research, Carl von processes: wind speed and temperature bias spatial Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Germany distribution analysis over south Italy ([email protected]) Francesca Fedele, Andrea Tateo, Micaela Menegotto, Annarita Turnone, Benedetto Figorito, Anna Guarnieri P23: EMS2015-197 Calò Carducci, Crescenza Calculli, Nunziata Ribecco, Relating MSG rain over the tropical atlantic with ASCAT Alessio Pollice, Roberto Bellotti derived surface divergence and vorticity Dipartimento di Fisica, University of Bari, Bari, Italy Gregory King, Wenming Lin, Marcos Portabella, Ad ([email protected] ), Apulia Region Environmental Stoffelen, Anton Verhoef Protection Agency (ARPA Puglia), Bari -Italy Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), ICM-CSIC CIF: ([email protected], [email protected], Q2818002D, Barcelona, Spain ([email protected]) [email protected],[email protected], Posters Friday [email protected]) P24: EMS2015-475 Modifying and evaluating the land surface P17: EMS2015-240 parameterization of the mesoscale model METRAS for The turbulent fluxes and TKE budget in Amazonia using long-term simulations LES PALM model Christopher Purr, Felix Ament, Heinke Schlünzen, Gilberto Fisch, Theomar Neves, Sigfried Raasch Marita Boettcher Aeronautic and Space Institute, Atmospheric Science Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Division, São José dos Campos, Brazil Germany ([email protected]) END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI4 P18: EMS2015-294 From cloud to precipitation: a case study of layered mixed-phased cloud using WRF and remote sensing and surface observations. Victoria Sinclair, Dmitri Moisseev, Ewan O’Connor, Tuukka Petäjä University of Helsinki, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Physics, Helsinki, Finland ([email protected])

P19: EMS2015-534 Comparison of cumulus convection schemes in RegCM experiments for the Carpathian Region Karolina André, Ildikó Pieczka, Judit Bartholy, Rita Pongrácz Eötvös Loránd University, Dept. of Meteorology, Budapest, Hungary

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Friday 93

ASI16 Energy Meteorology P42: EMS2015-235 Assessing the surface solar irradiance under cloud-free skies in Israel with the McClear model Convener: Sven-Erik Gryning Mireille Lefevre, Lucien Wald Co-Conveners: Ekaterina Batchvarova, Lucien Wald, MINES ParisTech - PSL Research University - Center Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt for Observation, Impacts, Energy, Sophia Antipolis Poster Area: Sofia I Cedex, France ([email protected]) Chairperson(s): Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt Introduction Part II: 10:30, Sofia III P43: EMS2015-276 Attendance Time: Friday, 10:45–11:30 Comparison of HelioClim-3v5 satellite irradiation data with in situ measurements for five states in Brazil P37: EMS2015-143 Etienne Wey, Claire Thomas, Philippe Blanc, Lucien The present state and long term variations of the Black Wald Sea wave power Transvalor, Mougins, France Vasko Galabov ([email protected]) National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH- BAS), Bulgaria ([email protected]) P44: EMS2015-330 Satellite-Based Surface Solar Irradiance Nowcast in P38: EMS2015-25 Alpine Areas The SOLEA Project: nowcasting solar energy spectra Tobias Götsch, Jochen Wagner, Reto Stöckli, Marc and UV products Olefs, Helmut Rott Panagiotis Kosmopoulos, Michael Taylor, Stelios Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Kazadzis Innsbruck, Austria Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece, P45: EMS2015-407 Faculty of Applied and Environmental Physics, Aristotle Validation of satellite-based surface solar irradiance University of Thessaloniki, Greece calculations in Alpine areas Andreas Luther, Friedrich Obleitner, Marc Olefs, Reto P39: EMS2015-69 Stöckli Energy meteorology studies investigating the impact of Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of clouds on solar energy production - Coupling a Innsbruck, Austria, Institute for applied remote sensing, spectrally resolved radiation model and a two-diode EURAC, Bozen, Italy model for solar cells to simulate PV power yields Ina Neher, Evandro Dresch, Khurshid Hasan, Bernd P46: EMS2015-450 Evers-Dietze, Dieter Franke, Stefanie K. Meilinger Comparison of the solar power production from different International Center for Sustainable Development, methodologies at a coastal Mediterranean site University of Applied Sciences Bonn-Rhein-Sieg, Sankt Teresa Lo Feudo, Elenio Avolio, Stefano Federico, Augustin, Germany ([email protected]) Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Anna Maria Sempreviva ISAC-CNR, UOS of Lamezia Terme, Italy Posters Friday P40: EMS2015-26 ([email protected]) A machine learning approach to derive surface solar irradiance spectra directly from satellite P47: EMS2015-514 Michael Taylor, Panagiotis Kosmopoulos, Stelios Day-ahead solar radiation forecasting using GFS and Kazadzis, Iphigenia Keramitsoglou, Chris Kiranoudis artificial neural networks Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Nicolas Sébastien, Pierre Zanchetta, Laurent Huet, Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece Nicolas Nitche, Sylvain Cros, Nicolas Schmutz Reuniwatt SAS, R&D, Sainte-Clotilde, Reunion Island, P41: EMS2015-181 France ([email protected]) Solar energy availability for Slovenia - spatial and temporal variability END OF POSTER PROGRAMME ASI16 Bostjan Grasic, Primoz Mlakar, Marija Zlata Boznar, Dragana Kokal MEIS d.o.o., Smarje - Sap, Slovenia ([email protected])

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 94 Poster Conference Programme – Friday

Climate

Research and services for socio-

economic sectors

CL9/CE7 Creating national and regional climate services in Europe through partnerships (co- organized)

Conveners: Clare Goodess, Carlo Buontempo Co-Conveners: Tanja Cegnar, Chris Hewitt, Filipe Lúcio, Tomas Halenka, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Poster Area: Sofia I Chairperson(s): Carlo Buontempo Introduction: 10:30, Sofia II Attendance Time: 10:45–11:30

P56: EMS2015-42 El Niño forecast information to support public health decision making Desislava Petrova, Rachel Lowe, Anna Stewart-Ibarra, Xavier Rodo Catalan Institute of Climate Science, Barcelona, Spain ([email protected])

P57: EMS2015-381 INTERKLIM - climate cooperation across the Czech- Saxon border Petr Skalak, Lenka Hájková, Nils Feske, Anke Hahn, Petr Stepánek, Siv-Ann Lippert, Lars Schöder, Pavel Zahradnicek, Andreas Hoy, Ales Farda Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Department of Climatology, Praha, Czech Republic ([email protected]), Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Brno, Czech Republic

Posters Friday END OF POSTER PROGRAMME CL9/CE7

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Poster Conference Programme – Friday 95

Numerical Weather Prediction

NWP6 Mesoscale Verification P92: EMS2015-477 A Wavelet Approach to the Verification of Probabilistic Inter-Comparison over Complex Spatial Fields Terrain (MesoVICT) Michael Weniger, Petra Friederichs Meteorological Institute, University Bonn, Germany ([email protected]) Convener: Marion Mittermaier Co-Conveners: Manfred Dorninger, Eric Gilleland P93: EMS2015-573 Poster Area: Sofia I When can we classify a model as good or bad? - Chairperson(s): Manfred Dorninger Quality assurance of mesocale predictions in high Introduction: 10:30, Kyoto complex terrain Attendance Time: 10:45–11:30 Ronny Petrik, K. Heinke Schlünzen, Dietmar Öttl University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, P89: EMS2015-250 Germany ([email protected]) An intensity-scale skill score to assess the added value of enhanced resolution P94: EMS2015-140 Barbara Casati, Anna Glazer, Jason Milbrandt, Vincent Intercomparison of Spatial Verification Methods for Fortin COSMO Terrain (INSPECT): Preliminary Results Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Dmitry Alferov, Elena Astakhova, Dimitra Boukouvala, Anastasia Bundel, Ulrich Damrath, Pierre Eckert, Flora P90: EMS2015-300 Gofa, Alexander Kirsanov, Xavier Lapillonne, Joanna Analysis of Fraction Skill Score properties in idealized Linkowska, Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Anatoly cases Muraviev, Elena Oberto, Maria Stefania Tesini, Naima Gregor Skok Vela, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, Mikhail Zaichenko University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Mathematics and RHM ([email protected]) Physics, Ljubljana, Slovenia ([email protected]) END OF POSTER PROGRAMME NWP6 P91: EMS2015-437 Using regional reanalyses for the spatial verification of

high-resolution model output Sabrina Wahl, Christian Ohlwein, Jan Keller, Petra Friederichs, Andreas Hense University of Bonn, Meteorological Institute, Bonn, Germany ([email protected]), Hans-Ertel Centre for

Weather Research - Climate Monitoring Branch Posters Friday

The End

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 96 Author index

Author index Ballard, Sue 23 Bihari, Zita 73, 80 Buki, Richard 44 Ballester, Joan 55 Bilbao, Julia 88 Bullock, Randy 86, 91 Acquaotta, Fiorella 27, 42 Baltas, Evangelos 31 Bin, Zhao 86 Bullock, Tim 69 Acuña, Delia 65, 89 Bampzelis, Dimitrios 91 Bingham, Suzy 35, 44 Bundel, Anastasia 69, 90, Afonso Jr., Alberto 44 Bange, Jens 59, 60, 67, Binietoglou, Ioannis 66 95 Agersten, Solfrid 74 70 Birmilli, Wolfram 59 Burcea, Sorin 66 Agud Pigue, Enric 74 Barantiev, Damyan 44, Birsan, Marius 66 Burgering, Liduin 76 Aguilar, Enric 57, 65 64, 78 Birsan, Marius-Victor 32, Buricelli, Sergio 55 Ahrens, Bodo 40, 45, 54, Barbariol, Francesco 36 79 Buzzi, Andrea 84 63 Barbu, Nicu 32, 63, 66, 82 Bissolli, Peter 27 Bye, John A. T. 35 Akasaka, Ikumi 65 Barichivich, Jonathan 42 Blahak, Ulrich 91 Cabello, Àngels 89 Alberts, Isabel 52 Barker, Dale 72 Blanc, Philippe 88, 93 Calaudi, Rosamaria 44, Alexander, Makshtas 75 Barkmeijer, Jan 40, 77, 84 Bleeckx, Olivia 65 64, 66 Alferov, Dmitry 95 Baronetti, Alice 27 Bleta, Anastasia 37 Calculli, Crescenza 92 Allan, Richard 26 Barranger, Nicolas 70, 78 Blumelova, Jana 55, 63 Calidonna, Claudia Allison, Lesley 91 Barrera Verdejo, Maria 59 Blyth, Eleanor 36 Roberta 44, 64, 66, 78, Alpert, Pinhas 75 Barriendos, Mariano 26 Bobrovnikov, Sergey 59 84, 93 Al-Tameemi, Muthanna Bärring, Lars 72, 80 Bocharnikov, Nikolai 69, Calle, Juan 65 44 Bartholy, Judit 32, 40, 42, 91 Calpini, Bertrand 59, 75 Altstädter, Barbara 59 63, 73, 92 Bocharnikov, Nikolay 69 Camaro, Walther 52 Amaro, Jèssica 29 Bartsch, Annett 72 Bock, Olivier 49 Campins, Joan 30 Amblar, Pilar 39 Bartunkova, Kristyna 29 Bodner, Gernot 38 Campos, Igor 39 Ament, Felix 54, 55, 59, Basart, Sara 56 Boettcher, Marita 92 Cañas, Montserrat 74 63, 78, 92 Batchvarova, Ekaterina Bogatchev, Andrey 83 Cantarello, Luca 79 Ammann, Caspar 86 37, 44, 55, 56, 64, 67, 70, Bogner, Konrad 54 Canut, Guylaine 37, 87 Ammoscato, Ivano 64 78, 88, 93 Bompard, Philippe 54 Caracas, Gabriela 55 Andersen, Elsa 88 Baumann-Stanzer, Bonaldo, Davide 36 Carbunaru, Daniel 66 Andersen, Jess 71 Kathrin 56 Bonasoli, Paolo 64 Cardoso, Luiz Felipe 39 Andersson Gull, Bengt 80 Baydakov, Georgy 45 Bonasoni, Paolo 64, 84 Cardoso, Rita M. 36 Andersson, Axel 42 Bazile, Eric 72, 79, 87 Bonsal, Barrie 27 Caria Moraes, Elisabete Andersson, Monika E.35 Bazlova, Tatiana 69, 91 Boraso, Rodolfo 42 82 Andrade, Marcos 65 Beaulant, Anne-Lise 54 Borde, Regis 75 Carlund, Thomas 70 André, Karolina 40, 92 Bechmann, Andreas 78 Borsche, Michael 72, 79 Carniel, Sandro 36 Andrei, Simona 32, 63, 66 Bechtold, Peter 87 Bortoli, Daniele 56 Carranza, Manuel 75 Andronopoulos, Spyros Becker, Andreas 42, 43, Bosy, Jaroslaw 42 Carrasco, Gualberto 65 56 49 Botey, Roser 24 Carreño, Sheila 91 Anfossi, Domenico 92 Becker, Bernd 24 Bouilloud, Ludovic 52 Carson, Bonar R. 35 Angelou, Nikolas 78 Becker, Claudia 75 Boukouvala, Dimitra 95 Carver, Glenn 41, 48 Angevine, Wayne 87 Begert, Michael 57, 71 Bourdil, Charles 88 Casado, María J. 80 Anitua, Pedro 44, 62, 91 Behrens, Klaus 75 Bovy, Henry 57 Casaioli, Marco 90 Appenzeller, Christof 46 Belda, Michal 40, 41, 46, Boznar, Marija Zlata 93 Casasanta, Giampietro 37 Aranda, José Antonio 44, 55, 64 Brandsma, Theo 65 Casati, Barbara 95 61, 62, 91 Beljaars, Anton 77 Branzov, Hristomir 64 Castellà, Mercè 65 Arbogast, Philippe 57, 58 Bellotti, Roberto 92 Brasiliense, Camila 46 Castillo Sanchez, Juan Arduini, Gabriele 87 Belluardo, Giorgio 70 Brasseur, Guy 64 Manuel 36 Argentini, Stefania 37 Belo-Pereira, Margarida Bravo, Manuel 44 Castro-Díez, Yolanda 47 Argyriou, Athanassios 49 36 Brenot, Hugues 49 Cattani, Daniel 91 Argyrouli, Katerina K. 31 Beltrami, Hugo 58 Brerton, Ashley 36 Cayanan, Esperanza O. Armand, Patrick 56 Benciu, Valentin Florin 63 Breuer, Hajnalka 83 65 Arshinov, Yury 59 Benestad, Rasmus 57, Bricheno, Lucy 36 Cegnar, Tanja 36, 44, 52, Ashcroft, Linden 65 66, 74 Briese, Christian 72 62, 74, 81, 89, 94 Ashton, Heather 87 Benetazzo, Alvise 36 Briole, Pierre 49 Ceron, Jean-Pierre 54 Astakhova, Elena 95 Bengtsson, Lisa 77, 87, Brockmann, Elmar 49 Chae, Jung-Hoon 82 Atlaskin, Evgeny 91 92 Broennimann, Stefan 65 Champion, Adrian 26 Attema, Jisk 37 Bengulescu, Marc 88 Brönnimann, Stefan 57, Chan, Rodney 27 Auchmann, Renate 57, 65 Bennett, James 54 58 Chandler, Richard E. 39 Auer, Ingeborg 57, 65 Berbekar, Eva 56 Brown, Barb 90 Charalambides, Ávila-Sánchez, Sergio 78 Berenguer, Marc 54 Brown, Barbara 69, 86, 91 Alexandros G. 22 Avolio, Elenio 64, 66, 78, Berlin, Mats 80 Brown, Barbara G. 69 Charalampopoulos, 84, 93 Berndt, Jonas 84 Brunet, Manola 57, 65, 72 Ioannis 36 Bach, Lilo 72, 79 Bernhard, Luzi 54 Brunet-India, Manola 57, Chazarra, Andres 24 Bach, Liselotte 76 Bertani, Gabriel 82 65 Chemel, Charles 55, 64, Bajat, Branislav 71 Bertrand, Cedric 65 Bruno Soares, Marta 89 87 Bajic, Alica 26, 44, 77, 78 Bessembinder, Janette 89 Brunsell, Nathaniel 82 Chen, Chih-Yu 36 Bakker, Alexander 89 Best, Martin 36, 87 Buccolieri, Riccardo 65 Chen, Yu-Cheng 36 Balasch, Josep Carles 26 Betts, Alan 87 Buchhold, Michael 78 Cheremisin, Alexander 56 Balbo, Simone 52 Beyrich, Frank 59, 75, 82 Bueh, Cholaw 25, 30 Chervenkov, Hristo 27 Baldi, Marina 28 Bhend, Jonas 86, 89 Bugliaro, Luca 88 Cheval, Sorin 32, 55

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Author index 97

Chiariello, Alessandro 41, Daneu, Vojko 38 Ebert, Elizabeth 69 Frei, Christoph 71, 79 48 Dankers, Rutger 23 Eckert, Pierre 95 Fricke, Cathy 63 Chimani, Barbara 65 David, Noam 75 Edelmann, Benedikt 45 Fridahl, Elin 41 Chladova, Zuzana 92 Davies, Jennifer 89 Efrati, Shai 36 Friederichs, Petra 72, 95 Chmielewski, Frank-M. Davolio, Silvio 35 Efthimiou, George 56 Friedrich, Karsten 27 28, 32 de Bruijn, Cisco 75, 76 Egaña, Joseba 31, 44, 91 Friis, Peggy 78 Cho, ChunHo 46 de Haan Siebren, 49, 60, Eguchi, Nawo 25 Froidevaux, Martin 59 Choi, In-Jin 83 75, 76 Eitzinger, Josef 38, 45 Fuka, Vladimir 56 Choi, JunTae 84 de Miguel, Argimiro 88 Elbern, Hendrik 84 Fukutome, Sophie 71 Choi, Min-Hyeok 82 de Oliveira, Gabriel 82 Elbers, Jan A. 82 Fundel, Felix 69 Choi, Suk-Jin 30 De Ridder, Koen 55 Elias, Panagiotis 49 Furbo, Simon 88 Christos Giannakopoulos, Debolskiy, Andrey 45 Elias, Thierry 88 Gadzhev, Georgi 55, 64, 30, 39 Deckmyn, Alex 90 Elliot, Duncan 89 70 Chukin, Vladimir 44 Declair, Stefan 83 Elo, Christoffer A. 71 Gaertner Ruiz- Chun, Jong 45 Dee, Dick 72, 79, 80 Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. 40 Valdepeñas, Miguel Ángel Clappier, Alain 32 Degrazia, Gervasio 92 Engeland, Kolbjørn 71 78 Clemens, Marco 54, 55, Dekker, Jan 91 Engström, Erik 57 Gaertner, Miguel Angel 57 63 del Corral, John 57 Enke, Wolfgang 27, 52, Galabov, Vasko 93 Clercx, Herman 37, 87 Delle Monache, Luca 77 58 Galanis, George 78 Clilverd, Mark A. 35 Delvaux, Charles 65 Ervasti, Tiina 74 Gallagher, Sarah 36 Cloke, Hannah 23 Deng, Zhiguo 49 Espino, Manuel 35, 44 Gallardo Andrés, Cnossen, Ingrid 35 Derbek, Premysl 55, 63 Esteban Parra, María Clemente 78 Codina, Bernat 76 Desjardins, Raymond 75, Jesús 47 Gallardo, Clemente 57, 78 Coll, Joan R. 65 87 Etropolska, Iglika 64 Gallego-Castillo, Cristóbal Colucci, Renato R. 55 Dessai, Suraje 89 Evers-Dietze, Bernd 88, José 78 Comas, Pau 89 Dezsö, Zsuzsanna 63 93 Galluccio, Paolo 55 Constantinescu, Dan 55 Di Girolamo, Paolo 59 Evgenieva, Tsvetina 59 Galván, Rogelio 89 Conte, Dario 57 Di Sabatino, Silvana 65 Evtimov, Stilian 31 Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia R. 47 Conti, Davide 78 Diamantis, Dimitris 78 Evtimov, Stilyan 45 Ganas, Athanassios 49 Contini, Daniele 78 Dian, Csenge 63 Ewert, Megan 82 Ganev, Kostadin 45, 55, Cooper, Chelsey 42 Diao, Yina 30 Facchini, Mauro 72 64, 70 Coppola, Erika 72 Dias, Frédéric 36 Faes, Anna 91 Gao, Yongqi 25, 30 Corre, Lola 65 Díaz-Durán, Adelaida 32 Falcieri, Francesco M. 36 García-Bustamante, Cortés, Jacob 26 Dick, Galina 49 Fandeur, Marie-Laure 57 Elena 39, 58 Cortés, Víctor 26 Dierssen, Werner 75 Farda, Ales 82, 94 Garcia-Castrillo, Gerardo Costa, Armin 70 Dietz, Sebastian J.62 Fdez-Arroyabe, Pablo 89 56 Coudert, Odile 52 Dietzsch, Felix 42 Fedele, Francesca 92 García-Díez, Markel 55 Cousin, Remi 57 Dimitrov, Dimitar 49 Federico, Stefano 78, 84, García-Gómez, Mª Couvreux, Fleur 87 Dimopoulos, Vasilis 41 93 Concepción 89 Craciun, Cristian 82 Dinku, Tufa 57 Feloni, Elissavet G. 31 García-Valdecasas- Cremer, Roswitha 88 Dinoev, Todor 59 Feng, Yang 27, 57, 65 Ojeda, Matilde 47 Cremonini, Roberto 42 Dmitrieva, Tatiana 69 Fernández Montes, Sonia García-Valero, Juan Crewell, Susanne 59, 72, Domínguez, Marta 57 39 Andrés 39 78 Domonkos, Peter 57, 65 Fernández-Donado, Gariazzo, Claudio 56 Crhova, Lenka 47 Donda, Judith 37, 87 Laura 39 Gawuc, Lech 55 Cristofanelli, Paolo 64 Donev, Evgeni 59 Feske, Nils 28, 94 Gaztelumendi, Santiago Cristofori, Elena Itossa 52 Doppler, Lionel 75 Figorito, Benedetto 92 31, 44, 61, 62, 81, 91 Croci-Maspoli, Mischa 57, Dörenkämper, Martin 70, Figura, Clarissa 76 Geertsema, Gertie 70 65, 89 92 Finger, Peter 43, 49 Gelpi, Ivan R. 91 Cros, Sylvain 88, 93 Dorigo, Wouter 72 Fisch, Gilberto 82, 92 Georg Beyer, Hans 70 Csima, Gabriella 86 Dorninger, Manfred 90, 95 Fischer, Andreas 46 Georgiev, Georgi 70 Cuell, Charles 27 dos Santos Silva, Fabricio Fischer, Andreas M. 40 Georgieva, Emilia 56, 64 Cuerva-Tejero, Alvaro 78 Daniel 57 Fisler, Joël 75 Georgieva, Ivelina 64 Cuevas, Emilio 56, 88 Dousa, Jan 49 Fix, Andreas 59 Gertman, Isaac 36 Cuevas-Agulló, Emilio 88 Draganska, Ewa 71 Fleming, Gerald 52, 74 Geuze, Maurits 52 Cvitan, Lidija 47 Dragota, Carmen 32 Floors, Rogier 35, 70 Giaiotti, Dario 26, 31, 56, Cymes, Iwona 71 Dragsted, Janne 88 Foley, Michael 23 74 D’Agostino, Roberta 79 Dresch, Evandro 88, 93 Foris, Dimitrios 31 Giannopoulos, Panagiotis d’Amico, Francesca 75 Drofa, Oxana 84 Foris, Vasileios 31 41, 74 da Silva, Fabricio Polifke Drüe, Clemens 59, 67, 75 Förster, Eric 86 Gibelin, Anne-Laure 65 46 Dubuisson, Brigitte 65 Fortin, Vincent 95 Gil Alfonso, Victoria 78 Dacre Helen, 25 Dubus, Laurent 89 Fowler, Tressa L. 69, 86, Gil, Delfina 89 Dalu, Giovanni 28 Dumitrache, Rodica 91 Gil, Juan J. 89 Damrath, Ulrich 95 Claudia 63 Franco, Federico 89 Gil, Victoria 57, 78 Danabasoglu, Gokhan 36 Dumitrescu, Alexandru Frank, Christopher 78 Gilabert, Alan 57, 65 Dance, Sarah 23, 76, 83 32, 55, 79 Franke, Dieter 88, 93 Gilham, Richard 87 Dance, Sarah L. 76 Dunger, Volkmar 47 Fratianni, Simona 27, 42 Gilleland, Eric 69, 86, 90, Danchovski, Ventsislav 59 Durka, Pawel 56 Fred C. Bosveld, 59, 75, 95 Dandocsi, Alexandru 66 Ebert, Beth 90 82, 87 Giorgi, Filippo 72

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 98 Author index

Gires, Auguste 54, 63 Hänsel, Stephanie 27, 32, Hrastinski, Mario 44, 77, Kalin, Ksenija Cindric 79, Giroud Gaillard, Marianne 47 78 91 91 Hanssen-Bauer, Inger 89 Hristova, Elena 64 Kalin, Lovro 91 Glashoff, Jenny 23, 29 Harbord, Roger 69 Hrubes, Pavel 55, 63 Kalisch, John 88 Glazer, Anna 95 Harjanne, Atte 74 Hübner, Thomas 38 Kallistratova, Margarita 37 Gleeson, Emily 36, 88 Harris, Chris 36 Huet, Laurent 93 Kallos, George 70, 78 Göber, Martin 23, 69, 86, Harrison, Giles 60 Hunziker, Stefan 57, 65 Kalogeri, Christina 70 91 Hartung, Kerstin 87 Huszar, Peter 55, 64 Kalvova, Jaroslava 46 Gobiet, Andreas 39 Hasan, Khurshid 88, 93 Huth, Radan 39, 57, 66 Kämäräinen, Matti 28, 32, Gocheva, Anelia 27 Haupt, Sue Ellen 89 Hygen, Hans Olav 74, 89 46 Goeber, Martin 69 Hautecoeur, Olivier 75 Ichiba, Abdellah 54 Kaminski, Jacek 64 Gofa, Flora 95 Hayes, Michael 38 Ickes, Luisa 87 Kaminski, Jacek W. 56 Göhler, Robby 78 Hazel Diren, Deniz 83 Illy, Tamás 40 Kamperakis, Nikolaos 31 Goldman, Ron 36 Hazeleger, Wilco 40 Im, Eun-Soon 40 Kandaurov, Alexander 45 Gomez de Segura, Jose Heene, Vera 72 Inarejos, Rocky Otto 52 Kang, Hyun-Suk 46 Daniel 61 Heiberg, Hanne 89 Iriza, Amalia 63 Kang, Minsoo 82 Gomez, Manuel 89 Heifetz, Eyal 36 Isaac, Victor 27 Kann, Alexander 83 Gómez-Navarro, Juan Heinemann, Detlev 70, 88 Isotta, Francesco 71 Kapala, Alice 43 José 39 Heinemann, Günther 59 Ivanáková, Gabriela 66 Kaplon, Jan 42 Goncalves, Fabio 44 Heinemann, Günther 75 Ivancan-Picek, Branka 26 Karacostas, Theodore 91 Göndöcs, Júlia 83 Heise, Stefan 49 Ivanov, Danko 59 Karlicky, Jan 40 Gonzalez, Manuel 44 Heisterkamp, Tobias 23 Ivanov, Martin 40 Karsisto, Virve 76, 91 González-Alemán, Juan Heizenreder, Dirk 23, 69 Ivanov, Vladimir 45 Kartsios, Stergios 91 Jesús 57, 66 Hellste, Antti 56 Ivatek-Sahdan, Stjepan Kaspar, Frank 65, 72, 79, González-Rouco, J. Fidel Helmert, Jürgen 83 44 82 39, 58 Hemingway, Becky 23 Iwanski, Slawomir 54 Katsanos, Dimitrios 49 Gospodinov, Ilian 27, 37, Hemingway, Rebecca 52, Iwao, Koki 30 Kauristie, Kirsti 35 74 91 Jackson, David 42, 44 Kazadzis, Stelios 93 Götsch, Tobias 93 Hendricks Franssen, Jackson, David R. 35, 44, Kazmierski, Kamil 42 Gotway, John Halley 91 Harrie-Jan 75 83 Keane, Richard 77 Grasic, Bostjan 93 Hendriks, Carlijn 56 Jacob, Daniela 64, 89 Keenlyside, Noel 30 Graw, Kathrin 65 Henley, Edmund 83 Jacob, Marek 54 Keller, Denise 46 Gregow, Hilppa 28, 32, 46 Henninger, Sascha M. 63 James, Paul 29, 86 Keller, Jan 72, 78, 79, 95 Grewe, Volker 64 Hense, Andreas 72, 76, Jansà, Agustí 30 Keller, Jan D. 76 Griffiths, Deryn 23 79, 95 Järvinen, Heikki 32 Kelly, Mark 70 Grifoll, Manel 35, 36, 44 Hermann, Markus 59 Jedruszkiewicz, Joanna Kempf, Harald 52 Gryning, Sven-Erik 37, 70, Hernandez, Roberto 91 25 Kenawy, Ahmed 28, 42 78, 88, 93 Hertig, Elke 39 Jefimow, Maciej 56 Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia Gualdi, Silvio 35, 36, 44, Herut, Barak 36 Jelonek, Leszek 54 93 89 Hess, Reinhold 23, 29 Jens, Wickert 49 Kertész, Sándor 48 Guarnieri Calò Carducci Hewson, Tim 22 Jensen, Tara 91 Khluchina, Natalya 23 Anna, 92 Hidalgo Muñoz, Jose Jermey, Peter 72 Khurshid Awan, Nauman Gubler, Stefanie 57, 65, Manuel 47 Jiang, Ying 40 83 89 Hilario, Flaviana D. 65 Jiménez, Carlos 80 Kidd, Richard 72 Guenzi, Diego 27, 42 Hippi, Marjo 52 Jimenez, Pedro 35, 44 Kiktev, Dmitri 69 Gueorguiev, Orlin 55, 67 Hirdman, David 41 João Costa, Maria 75 Kiktev, Dmitry 69 Guerova, Guergana 42, Hirooka, Toshihiko 25, 30 Joerg-Hess, Stefanie 54 Kilibarda, Milan 71 49, 59, 67 Hirsch, Lutz 59 Jokinen, Pauli 46 Kim, Hye-Min 81 Gullì, Daniel 44, 64, 66 Hirsch, Tamas 29 Joly, Bruno 57, 58 Kim, In-Gyum 29, 81 Gutiérrez Escribano, Hirsikko, Anne 59 Jones, Jonathan 42, 49 Kim, Jeong-Yun 29, 81 Cladia 78 Hollmann, Rainer 65 Jones, Phil 57, 72 Kim, JiYoun 84 Gutiérrez Rubio, Delia 61 Holtanova, Eva 46, 47 Jones, Philip 42 Kim, SooHyun 84 Gutierrez, Jose M. 39 Holtslag, Albert A.M. 55 Jonker, Harm 87 Kim, So-Young 83 Haas, Eva Maria 72 Holtslag, Bert 37, 87, 92 Journée, Michel 65 Kim, Sung 45 Hacker, Maike 23 Hong, Song-You 30, 83 Juga, Ilkka 32 Kindap, Tayfun 55, 76 Hadas, Tomasz 42 Hong, Xiaowei 30 Jungclaus, Johann 39 King, Gregory 92 Haefele, Alexander 59 Honnert, Rachel 87 Junk, Constantin 70 Kioutsoukis, Ioannis 49 Hagedorn, Renate 52 Hooyberghs, Hans 55 Jurus, Pavel 55, 63 Kiranoudis, Chris 93 Hagen, Berit 74 Hoppe, Charlotte 84 Jury, Martin W. 39 Kirova, Hristina 37, 64 Hahn, Anke 28, 94 Hoppula, Petri 28 Justi da Silva, Maria Kirova-Galabova, Hristina Haiden, Thomas 69 Hordyniec, Pawel 42 Gertrudes 39, 46 37 Hájková, Lenka 28, 94 Horn, Berthold K.P. 51 Jylhä, Kirsti 46 Kirsanov, Alexander 95 Hakami, Amir 76 Horvath, Kristian 44, 77, Kacmarík, Michal 49 Kis, Anna 42 Halenka, Tomas 40, 41, 78 Kadantsev, Evgeny 45 Kjellström, Erik 72, 80 46, 48, 55, 64, 89, 94 Hosek, Jiri 92 Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea K. Kleczek, Michal 76 Han, Ji-Young 83 Hostýnek, Jirí 79 72, 79 Klepp, Christian 59 Han, Zhe 25 Hoy, Andreas 27, 28, 58, Kajaba, Peter 66 Klukova, Zuzana 40 94 Kaleyna, Petya 64 Kneringer, Philipp 62

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Author index 99

Knutti, Reto 46 Laska, Kamil 92 Lundtang Petersen, Erik Mech, Mario 59 Koch, Elisabeth 36, 38, 45 Laugel, Amélie 89 70 Medeiros, Brian 87 Köhler, Carmen 52, 75 Lauwaet, Dirk 55 Luo, Dehai 25, 26, 30 Mehrens, Anna 70 Köhler, Martin 52 Lazar, Michael 36 Luo, Feifei 30 Meier, Florian 83 Kohlhepp, Regina 78 Lazogiannis, Konstantinos Luo, Lifeng 86 Meilinger, Stefanie 88 Kokal, Dragana 93 35 Luo, Yong 40 Meilinger, Stefanie K. 93 Kolarova, Maria 64 Le Moigne, Patrick 87 Luptak, Dora 44 Meirold-Mautner, Ingo 83 Kolax, Michael 80 Lea, Guillaume 35 Lussana, Cristian 71, 79 Meißner, Sabine 47 Kolev, Nikolay 59 Lee, Hyun-Ju 84 Luterbacher, Juerg 39 Mel, Riccardo 54 Konitzer, Kerstin 41 Lee, Woo-Seop 84 Luterbacher, Jürg 39 Menegotto, Micaela 92 Konow, Heike 59, 78 Leeuwenburg, Tennessee Luther, Andreas 93 Menezes, Wallace 46 Konzelmann, Thomas 57, 23 Macaigne, Peggy 38 Merker, Claire 55, 63 65, 89 Lefevre, Mireille 93 Mächel, Hermann 27, 57, Messer, Hagit 75 Kopec, Jacek M. 60 Legg, Timothy 71 65 Mestre Barcelo, Antonio Körber, Maya 27 Lehahn, Yoav 36 Machua, Samuel 65 24 Kosmale, Miriam 88 Lehmann, Volker 59 Machulskaya, Ekaterina Mestre, Olivier 65 Kosmopoulos, Panagiotis Lehtonen, Ilari 28, 32 83 Metzger, Stefan 75 93 Leijnse, Hidde 42, 51, 75 MacPherson, Ian 75 Meyer-Christoffer, Anja Kothe, Steffen 40, 88 Leinweber, Ronny 59 Madec, Thumette 65 43, 49 Kotlarski, Sven 39, 40 Leitl, Bernd 56 Magnusson, Linus 87 Mhanda, Albert 65 Kotroni, Vassiliki c26, 74 Lelieveld, Jos 30 Mahlstein, Irina 86, 89 Michelangeli, Paul- Kotsopoulos, Stylianos 91 Leloux, Jonatan 75 Maisey, Paul 24 Antoine 89 Kouznetsov, Rostislav 59 Lengfeld, Katharina 54, Malardel, Sylvie 87 Micu, Dana 32 Kovács Tamás, 80 55, 63 Malcheva, Krastina 27 Micu, Dana Magdalena 32 Kovács, Attila 73 Lenhart, Christin3 29 Malguzzi, Piero 84 Miglietta, Mario M. 36 Kox, Thomas 29 Lepioufle, Jean-Marie 71 Malinowski, Szymon P. 60 Mihajlovic, Domagoj 91 Krähenmann, Stefan 71 Leutbecher, Martin 77 Manafov, Ilian 67 Miketta, Wiebke 27 Krammer, Carmen 38 Lewis, Huw 36 Manders, Astrid 55, 56, Mikkelsen, Torben 78 Kranenburg, Richard 56 Lhotka, Ondrej 26 64 Mikolajewicz, Uwe 46 Kraus, Luca 88 Li, Shuanglin 25, 30 Manea, Ancuta 79 Miksovsky, Jiri 32 Kreis, Andrea 27 Li, Weijing 25 Maraun, Douglas 39 Mikulová, Katarína 66 Kress, Nurit 36 Li, XingXing 49 Mariani, Stefano 90 Milbrandt, Jason 95 Kretova, Zoia 57 Li, Xinyu 79 Marichev, Valery 56 Millán, Vicente 46 Krinitskiy, Mikhail 82 Lin, Dawei 30 Marinez de la Torre, Milliez, Maya 56 Krizan, Peter 49 Lin, Tzu-Ping 36 Alberto 36 Milocco, Riccardo 55 Kube, Marlen 75 Lin, Wenming 92 Marinoni, Angela 64 Miloshev, Nikolay 55, 64, Kubota, Hisayuki 65 Lin, Zhaohui 86 Marjanovic, Dragana 25 70 Kubu, Gerhard 38 Lindau, Ralf 57 Marlton, Graeme 60 Minárová, Jana 32 Kucera, Paul 91 Lindfors, Anders 70 Marquet, Pascal 37, 87 Miniussi, Arianna 56 Kuchar, Leszek 54 Liniger, Mark 39, 46, 86, Marsigli, Chiara 77, 90, 95 Miró Cubells, Josep Küchler, Wilfried 28 89 Marticorena, Beatrice 56 Ramon 52 Kuglitsch, Franz 57 Liniger, Mark A. 40 Martija, Maialen 31, 81 Miró, Anna 29 Kulkarni, Pavan 56 Linkowska, Joanna 95 Martín-León, Francisco 66 Mitchell, Cathryn 42 Kullmann, László 76 Lionello, Piero 54, 57, 65, Martins, Joao P. A. 36 Mittermaier, Marion 69, Kuznetsova, Alexander 45 79 Masbou, Matthieu 23 86, 90, 91, 95 Kwiatkowski, Kamil 60 Lippert, Siv-Ann 94 Masson, Valéry 37 Mjelstad, Håkon 74 Kwon, Young 76 Liria, Pedro 44 Mastrantonio, Mlakar, Primoz 93 Kwon, Young-Cheol 83 Liu, Hanli 35 Giangiuseppe 37 Moene, Arnold 37, 87 Kysely, Jan 40 Liu, Jin-King 36 Materia, Stefano 36, 89 Moisseev, Dmitri 92 Kyung Jin, Emilia 83 Lo Feudo, Teresa 44, 64, Mathbout, Shifa 71 Molendijk, Marcel 91 Laakso, Lauri 70 66, 78, 93 Matjacic, Blazenka 91 Molina, Tomas 74 Lac, Christine 87 Löhnert, Ulrich 59 Matsangouras, Ioannis 31 Molinari, Luigi 55 Lafeuille, Jérôme 35 Loiskandl, Willibald 38 Matsangouras, Ioannis T. Monsorno, Roberto 70 Lagouvardos, López Bustins, Joan 35 Montani, Andrea 69, 77, Konstantinos 26, 74 Albert 71 Matschullat, Jörg 27, 32, 84, 90, 95 Laitinen, Tiera 35 Lopez, Ana 62 47 Montávez, Juan Pedro 39 Lakatos, Monika 27, 32, Lopez-Díaz, Jose Antonio Matsumoto, Jun 65 Montesanti, Stefania 64 80 57 Matter, Michel 91 Montornès, Alex 76 Lal Shrestra, Durga 54 Lopez-Garcia, Oscar 78 Matzarakis, Andreas 36, Moreira, Nuno 36 Lallemand, Caroline 88 Lorenz, Elke 88 37, 44 Morel, Laurent 49 Lammer, Günter 75 Losada, Teresa 57 Mauder, Matthias 75 Moreno, Isabel 65 Lampert, Astrid 59 Louise Evans, Jenni 66 Maurel, William 87 Moreno, J.Vicente 24 Lancz, Dàvid 87 Lowe, Rachel 94 Mauritsen, Thorsten 87 Mortarini, Luca 92 Landi, Tony Christian 84 Lu, Hua 35 Mayr, Georg J. 62 Moser, David 70 Lange, Ingo 78 Lu, Riyu 30, 79 Mazon, Jordi 26, 31, 35 Mostmandy, Suleiman 69 Lapillonne, Xavier 95 Lucio-Eceiza, Etor E. 58 McCabe, Matthew 28, 42 Mtonya, Amos 52 Large, William 36 Lueder, Catharina 29 McCarthy, Mark 89 Mücke, Werner 72 Larsen, Søren E. 70 Luis, Lecha 89 McGrath, Ray 36 Mueller, Richard 70 Larsen, Xiaoli 70 McLellan, Joanne 52 Muhlbauer, Andreas 92

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 100 Author index

Mukhtarov, Plamen 64 Oria Rojas Clara, 57 Pierce, Clive 91 Retalis, Adrianos 49 Müller, Miloslav 32 Oria, Clara 57, 65, 89 Pieri, Furio 55 Rezacova, Daniela 41 Müller, Richard 88 Orlandi, Emiliano 59 Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka Ribecco, Nunziata 92 Münster, Hans 54 Oruc, Ilker 64 64 Ricard, Didier 87 Muraviev, Anatoly 69, 95 Orue, Judith 61 Pino, David 26, 35 Ricchi, Antonio 36 Murer, Erwin 38 Osborn, Tim 57 Pinty, Bernard 72 Richon, Jacques 27 Murray, Sophie A. 83 Osinski, Robert 29 Piotrowski, Piotr 25 Richter, Harald 77 Mylne, Ken 23, 29, 51 Öttl, Dietmar 95 Pistrin, Gianluca 55 Rico, Yolanda Luna 57 Nahmani, Samuel 49 Otxoa de Alda, Kepa 61 Pithan, Felix 25, 87 Riede, Jens 65 Nakazawa, Tetsuo 46 Overbeek, Bernadet 89 Platis, Andreas 59, 60 Rieger, Vanessa 64 Nascimento, Domingos 65 Overeem, Aart 42, 49, 51, Pollice, Alessio 92 Riesco Martín, Jesús 61 Nastos, Panagiotis 31, 37 75 Polychroni, Iliana 31 Riess, Thorsten 91 Nastos, Panagiotis T. 31, Ozcomak, Duygu 55 Ponce Gutiérrez, Riihela, Aku 70 35 Oztaner, Yasar Burak 55, Salvador 61 Ristori, Pablo 59 Navarra, Antonio 36 76 Pongrácz, Rita 40, 42, 63, Riviere Riviére Gwendal, Navarro, Jorge 35, 44, 58 Paccagnella, Tiziana 77, 73, 92 57 Navascues, Beatriz 89 90 Pop, Lukas 29 Rizzo, Alessandro 65 Neal, Rob 23 Paci, Alexandre 37 Pope, Ed 35 Robaa, Sayed M. 28 Necula, Cristian 66 Pacione, Rosa 49 Porebska, Magdalena 64 Robbins, Gavin 23 Neher, Ina 88, 93 Pagh Nielsen, Kristian 88 Portabella, Marcos 92 Robbins, Jo 23 Neikova, Rozeta 64 Palacio, Virginia 31, 81 Posada, Rafael 65 Robertson, David 54 Nejedlík, Pavol 66 Pallares, Elena 44 Post, Piia 63 Robinson, James 51 Nemeth, Akos 44 Paller, Jan 29 Potes, Miguel 75 Rodger, Craig J. 35 Nemeth, Csilla Peline 32 Palmroth, Minna 35 Potthast, Roland 83 Rodier, Quentin 37 Nemuc, Anca 66 Palomares, Ana 35 Pottiaux, Eric 49 Rodó, Xavier 55 Neto, Francisco Osvaldo Palomares, Ana Maria 44 Pouget, Laurent 89 Rodrigo, Fernando S. 39, S. 65 Palus, Milan 44 Pozzoli, Luca 55, 76 46 Neves, Theomar 92 Pape, Jan Jaap 51 Prein, Andreas F. 39 Rodriguez, Jose M. 39 Nevir, Peter 86 Papko, Vladislav 45 Preuschmann, Swantje 89 Rodriguez-Camino, Nevvonen, Ljubov 54 Pappenberger, Florian 22 Primo, Cristina 29, 69 Ernesto 39, 72, 80, 89 Newinger, Christina 36 Pardowitz, Tobias 23, 29 Principe, Olatz 31, 81 Rohm, Witold 42, 49 Nibart, Maxime 56 Parey, Sylvie 89 Prodanova, Maria 55, 56, Rohrer, Mario 89 Nichols, Nancy K. 76 Park, Cheol-Hong 29, 81 64, 70 Roldán, Tamara 89 Nicoll, Keri 60 Park, Jinkyung 46 Prohom, Marc 57 Román, Roberto 88 Niedrist, Georg 70 Park, Ki-Jun 29, 81 Prohom, Marc J. 29 Romera, Raquel 57 Nikitina, Larisa 69 Park, Moon-Soo 82 Purr, Christopher 92 Romero, Laura 26 Nikola Vasiljevic, 35 Park, Rae-Seol 83 Pütz, Thomas 75 Ronda, Reinder 37, 55 Nikolov, Dimitar 26, 27, 29 Park, Sung-Hwa 82 Pytharoulis, Ioannis 31, Rosas, Gabriela 57, 89 Nikolov, Valeri 64 Parlange, Marc 59 91 Röseler, Anne-Katrin 75 Nikolova, Emilia 64 Päschke, Eileen 59 Quaade, Maria 56 Rösner, Stefan 27 Nikulin, Grigory 72, 80 Pasquali, Paolo 52 Quaas, Johannes 92 Rott, Helmut 93 Nimac, Irena 79 Pastor, Asuncion 39, 80 Raabe, Armin 78 Roukounakis, Nikolaos 49 Nitche, Nicolas 93 Pastor, Fernando 89 Raasch, Sigfried 92 Roulin, Emmanuel 63 Noacco, Cristian 55 Patarcic, Mirta 47 Raatz, Wolfgang 29 Roux, Gregory 69 Nordio, Sergio 55 Patlakas, Platon 70, 78 Radanovics, Sabine 27, Rudel, Ernest 36 Norman, Katie 91 Paul, Anita 38 69 Ruiz-Bellet, Josep Lluis Novikov, Pavel 56 Pearson, David 36 Radics, Kornelia 32 26 Novitsky, Mikhail 78 Pedersen, Ine-Therese 74 Ràfols, Laura 35 Rulfova, Zuzana 40 Novotna, Dagmar 44 Pedersen, Kamilla 74 Rahav, Eyal 36 Rummel, Udo 75 Nurmi, Pertti 69, 86, 91 Peña, Alfredo 35, 70, 78 Raible, Christoph C. 39 Russell, Iain 48 O’Connor, Ewan 70, 92 Penchev, Rosen 67 Raidl, Ales 32 Russo, Aniello 36, 39 O’Connor, Ewan J. 59 Peneva, Elisaveta 67 Räisänen, Jouni 30 Rustemeier, Elke 43, 49 O’Donnell, Declan 46 Peng, Jingbei 25 Rakai, Anniko 56 Sábitz, Judit 40 Obermann, Anika 45 Peng, Juan 62 Ramon, Didier 88 Saboret, Laurent 88 Oberto, Elena 95 Percec-Tadic, Melita 79 Ramos, Petra 39, 80 Sadeck Boulahya, Obleitner, Friedrich 93 Perrels, Adriaan 24, 29 Rasilla, Domingo 57 Mohammed 89 Odak Plenkovic, Iris 44, Perrin, Rémi 88 Rasmijn, Lucinda 40 Sairouni, Abdelmalik 44, 77 Petäjä, Tuukka 92 Rautenberg, Alexander 70 52 Oh, Sang 45 Petenko, Igor 37 Raykova, Kristin 42, 49 Saku, Seppo 46 Ohata, Tsuyoshi 25 Petrik, Ronny 95 Reale, Marco 57 Salazar, Onintze 62 Ohlwein, Christian 72, 78, Petrov, Anton 56, 64 Reca Remedio, Armelle Salgado, Rui 75 95 Petrova, Desislava 94 64 Saloranta, Tuomo 71 Olefs, Marc 93 Pfeifroth, Uwe 88 Reeves, Claire 56 Salvador, Mozar 57 Oliveira e Cruz de Photiadou, Christiana 42, Reich, Hendrick 77 Samuelsen, Eirik Mikal 53 Aragao, Luiz Eduardo 82 65 Reichert, Bernhard K. 23, Sanchez de Cos, M. Oliver, Gutjahr 75 Picatoste, J. Ramon 39 29, 69 Carmen 80 Ollinaho, Pirkka 77 Picornell, M. Ángeles 30 Reinert, Daniel 76, 83 Sánchez, Enrique 57 Orbe, Iñaki 62 Pieczka, Ildikó 40, 92 Resler, Jaroslav 55, 63 Sanchez, J. Carlos 39

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Author index 101

Sánchez-Laulhe, Jose M. Shepherd, Ted 25 Stephan, Klaus 83 Tolasz, Radim 79 80 Shimabukuro, Yosio Stephenson, David 69 Tomé, Ricardo 36 Sanchis-Dufau, Antonio Edemir 82 Sterk, Marina 87 Tonkova, Svetlana 64 Daniel 82 Shum, Nelson 69 Sterl, Andreas 40 Torcasio, Rosa Claudia Sandev, Marjan 66 Sidorov, Dmitry 42 Stewart-Ibarra, Anna 94 78, 84 Sandu, Irina 77, 87 Siegmund, Peter 71 Stocchi, Paolo 35 Toreti, Andrea 57, 65 Sangelantoni, Lorenzo 39 Siemen, Stephan 41, 48 Stöckli, Reto 70, 93 Torma, Csaba 72 Sannikova, Svetlana 23 Sierny, Jan 42 Stoffelen, Ad 92 Toros, Hüseyin 83 Santos, Marcelo 49 Sigró, Javier 65 Stoll, Jens 92 Torres, Jesus 61 Saulter, Andy 36 Siili, Tero 41 Stoycheva, Anastasia 42 Tóth, Helga 76 Sauquet, Eric 69 Silen, Johan 32 Stoycheva, Anastasiya 31 Toumi, Ralf 36 Savenije, Mark 70 Silva, Ana Maria 56 Strandberg, Gustav 72 Träger-Chatterjee, Savov, Plamen 59 Silva, Wanderson 39 Struzewska, Joanna 55, Christine 88 Schaap, Martijn 56 Simeonov, Tzvetan 42 56, 64 Trentmann, Joerg 70 Schamm, Kirstin 49 Simeonov, Valentin 59 Struzik, Piotr 82 Trentmann, Jörg 65, 88 Schär, Christoph 40 Simmer, Clemens 43 Suchecki, Stanislaw 71 Tribbia, Joe 36 Schaumberger, Andreas Simon, Andre 23 Sudarchikova, Natalia 46, Trigo, Isabel F. 36 38 Sinclair, Victoria 25, 70, 64 Trini Castelli, Silvia 56, 92 Schertzer, Daniel 54 92 Sudhakar, Dipu 92 Trnka, Mirek 38 Schindler, Anne 71 Sinitsyn, Alexey 82 Suklitsch, Martin 23, 83 Trobec, Jay 74 Schleinzer, Thorsten 29 Sirch, Tobias 88 Sulikowska, Agnieszka Troccoli, Alberto 89 Schlünzen, Heinke 92, 95 Skalak, Petr 28, 40, 82, 28, 32 Troen, Ib 70 Schlünzen, K. Heinke 95 94 Sun, Chenghu 25 Troitskaya, Yuliya 45 Schmidt, Falko 89 Skaugen, Thomas 71 Svendsen, Lea 30 Truhetz, Heimo 39 Schmidt, Thomas 88 Skok, Gregor 95 Svensson, Gunilla 87 Tsankov, Milen 45 Schmitt, Andreas 28 Skorepa, Jan 32 Syrakov, Dimiter 55, 56, Tsenkova-Bratoeva, Anna Schmutz, Nicolas 88, 93 Skov, Henrik 37 64, 70 37 Schneider, Michel 27 Slavchev, Martin 42 Syrakov, Evgeni 45 Tsenova, Boryana 83 Schneider, Petra 28 Slavov, Kiril 56, 64 Szabó, János Adolf 42 Tsiros, Ioannis 36 Schneider, Stefan 72 Sliwinska, Malgorzata 28, Szafranek, Karolina 49 Tsubota, Yukimasa 48 Schneider, Udo 43, 49 32 Szalai, Sándor 80 Tuononen, Minttu 70 Schöder, Lars 28, 94 Smerdon, Jason E. 39 Szentimrey, Tamás 80 Tupman, David 60 Schönhuber, Michael 75 Smet, Geert 90 Szépszó, Gabriella 40, 73 Turmanova, Sevdalina 64 Schöpfer, Lion 36 Smirnov, Alexander 69 Szewczyk-Bartnicka, Turna, Maros 66 Schraff, Christoph 72, 77, Smith, Joe 70, 75 Hanna 71 Turnone, Annarita 92 79 Soares, Pedro M. M. 36 Szintai, Balázs 76 Turpin, Mathieu 88 Schreiber, Klaus-Jürgen Soci, Cornel 72 Szucs, Mihaly 23 Tuset, Jordi 26 82 Sokol Jurkovic, Renata 47 Szwejkowski, Zbigniew 71 Tveito, Ole Einar 71, 79 Schröder, Guido 23, 29, Sokol, Zbynek 29 Szymankiewicz, Karol 56 Tymvios, Filippos 30 69 Solin, Otto 52 Tambke, Jens 35, 92 Tyrlis, Evangelos 30 Schröder, Marc 42 Song, Yong 54 Tang, Wei 86 Uijlenhoet, Remko 42, 51, Schroedter-Homscheidt, Song, Yunyoung 82 Tank, Albert Klein 27, 32, 75 Marion 70, 78, 88, 93 Sørensen, Lise Lotte 37 65, 72 Ulbrich, Uwe 23, 29 Schuhmacher, Thomas Sosnica, Krzysztof 42 Tapakis, Rogiros 22 Unal, Alper 55, 76 24 Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel Tarand, Andres 39 Unden, Per 72 Schulze, Olaf 82 27 Tateo, Andrea 92 Ungersböck, Markus 38 Schurgers, Guy 46 Sozzi, Roberto 37 Tavares, Richard 56 Urban, Ales 44 Schwander, Mikhaël 58 Späth, Stephan 70 Taylor, Michael 93 Ustrnul, Zbigniew 28, 32 Schwarz, Pascal 75 Spekat, Arne 27, 52, 58 Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia 54 Václavovic, Pavel 49 Schwinzerl, Martin 75 Spirig, Christoph 86, 89 Teferle, Norman 42, 49 Vaillancourt, Paul 87 Sclavo, Mauro 36 Srinivasan, Ramesh 75 Tegen, Ina 92 Vajda, Andrea 32, 46 Scovell, Robert 91 Stafanie, Horatiu 66 Tegoulias, Ioannis 91 Vakkari, Ville 59, 70 Sébastien, Nicolas 88, 93 Stampetta, Roberto 55 Teichmann, Claas 64 Valcheva, Raliza 64 Sein, Dmitry 46 Staquet, Chantal 87 Terradellas, Enric 56 Valeriánová, Anna 32 Seitola, Teija 32 Stastny, Pavel 66 Tesini, Maria Stefania 90, Valero, Francisco 66 Sekulic, Aleksabder 71 Stathopoulos, Christos 70 95 Vallee, Marcel 91 Sempere-Torres, Daniel Stavik Rønning, Snorre Thaler, Sabina 38 Valtchanova, Paulina 67 54 71 Theeuwes, Natalie 55 van de Beek, Remco v77 Sempreviva, Anna Maria Steeneveld, Gert-Jan 37, Thomas, Claire 88, 93 van de Wiel, Bas 37, 87 35, 44, 66, 78, 93 51, 55, 76, 87, 92 Thomas, Raphaël 88 van den Berg, Wim 77 Sendik, Omri 75 Stefan, Sabina 63, 66, 82 Tijm, Sander 91 van den Bergh, Hubert 59 Seol, Kyung-Hee 30 Steiner, Andrea 52 Timmreck, Claudia 46 Van den Bergh, Joris 63 Seong Yeow, Tee 78 Steinfeld, Gerald 35, 70, Tinarelli, Gianni 56 van den Besselaar, Else Sepp, Mait 58 92 Tiriolo, Luca 44, 64, 78 65 Seppälä, Annika 35, 44 Stel, Fulvio 26, 31, 55, 56, Tiron, Roxana 36 van den Brink, Henk 70 Serafim Poulos, 35 74 Tisler, Priit 59 van den Hurk, Bart 89 Sergeev, Daniil 45 Stepánek, Petr 28, 79, 94 Titley, Helen 23 van der Schriek, Tim 39 Serikov, Ilya 59 Stepanenko, Victor 45 Tödter, Julian 40 van der Schrier, Gerard Serrano, Encarna 32 Stepanyuk, Oleg 30 Toedter, Julian 63 40, 42, 65, 71

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria 102 Author index

van het Schip- Viljanen, Ari 35 Wielgosz, Pawel 49 Zappa, Massimiliano 54, Haverkamp, Tessa 77 Villani, Alberto 55 Wilcke, Renate 39, 72, 80 63 van Hooijdonk, Ivo 37 Viola, Angelo 37 Wildmann, Norman 59, Zdereva, Marina 23 Van Schaeybroeck, Bert Vitt, Ronja 37 60, 70 Zeileis, Achim 62 90 Voces, Jose 89 Wilgan, Karina 42 Zeng, Xiaodong 38 Varino, Filipa 57 Vokoun, Martin 91 Williams, Paul 60 Zhang, Dan 91 Vasilyev, Evgeny 69 von Bremen, Lüder 70 Wilson, Laurence 69, 90 Zhang, Kai 46 Vassileva, Keranka 42 von Bremen, Lueder 70 Wirth, Martin 59 Zhang, Ruonan 25 Vautard, Robert 73 von Schumann, Jonas 78 Wittmann, Christoph 38, Zhao, Zongci 40 Vdovin, Maksim 45 Voormansik, Tanel 63 83 Zhu, Jiawen 38 Vdovin, Maxim 45 Voortman, Bernard 82 Wolff, Jörg-Olaf 35 Zielinski, Mariusz 55 Veciana Rovira, Roger 52 Wagner, Jochen 70, 93 Wolke, Ralf 92 Ziese, Markus 42, 43, 49 Veciana, Roger 44, 52 Wagner, Wolfgang 72 Wood, Eric 86 Zilitinkevich, Sergej 37, 45 Vela, Naima 95 Wahl, Bente 74 Worth, Devon 75, 87 Zimmer, Janek 78 Velarde, Fernando 65 Wahl, Sabrina 23, 72, 95 Wundsam, Timo 63 Zinas, Nicolas 49 Velchev, Krum 64 Wald, Lucien 70, 78, 88, Wurps, Hauke 35, 70, 92 Zubler, Elias 40, 46 Veleva, Blagorodka 64 93 Wypych, Agnieszka 28, Zunker, Hugo 72 Veljovic, Katarina 25 Waller, Joanne A. 76 32 Zurba, Kamal 32 Veloso dos Santos, Walli, Andreas 72 Wyszogrodzki, Andrzej 95 Zus, Florian 49 Thiago 82 Walter, Andreas 71 Xie, Zuowei 25, 30 Venäläinen, Ari 28 Wang, Qj 54 Xu, Ke 30 Venema, Victor 43, 57, 65 Wang, Shuhui 35 Xu, Xiaoyu 25 Vereecken, Harry 75 Wang, Wanli 45, 62 Yao, Yao 26 Verhoef, Anton 92 Wang, Xiaolan L. 27, 57, Yiou, Pascal 27 Vernon, Chris 91 65 Yoo, Jinho 84 Verrelle, Antoine 87 Wang, Yafei 25, 30 Yosef, Yzhak 57 Verronen, Pekka T. 35 Wang, Yong 23, 29, 83 Zacharov, Petr 41 Vertacnik, Gregor 65 Wapler, Kathrin 91 Zack, John 76 Verver, Ge 65, 72, 79 Wastl, Clemens 23 Zadra, Ayrton 87 Vetacnik, Gregor 57 Wedi, Nils 87 Zahradnicek, Pavel 82, 94 Vidal, Jean-Philippe 69 Wehener, Birgit 59 Zaichenko, Mikhail 95 Vide, Javier Martin 71 Weniger, Michael 95 Zaidouni, Taoufik 88 Viel, Christian 54 Wey, Etienne 88, 93 Zaiki, Masumi 65 Vihma, Timo 59, 70 Weymouth, Gary 23 Zanchetta, Pierre 93 Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Wibig, Joanna 32, 39 Zängl, Günther 83 Jordi 37 Widmann, Martin 39, 46 Zao, Ping 25

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria Floor plan

Coffee area

AMS

Poster area GB

Kyoto

Registration Coffee area Zonen Kipp &

Sofia III Sofia II Sofia I MadaraMadara (Poster area) Scintec Working room

UKIP Media & Events Elena Triavna Pleven

Vitosha Elena Storage

Conference entrance

Pleven

Hotel lobby & Vitosha 104 Notes

15th EMS & 12th ECAM | 07–11 September 2015 | Sofia, Bulgaria