Latin America Advisor

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Friday, November 6, 2020

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group ECONOMIC Devry Boughner Vorwerk Which Are the Most Hurricane Eta CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Death Toll Climbs Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Important Races in Guatemalan President Alejandro JPMorgan Chase & Co. Giammattei said at least 50 Paula Cifuentes people had been killed in his coun- Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, Brazil’s Local Vote? try due to Hurricane Eta as its eco- Latin America & Canada, nomic toll continues to mount. Philip Morris International Page 2 Marlene Fernández Corporate Vice President for Government Relations, POLITICAL Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s) Peter Hakim Mexican Senate President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue Passes Digital Donna Hrinak Violence Law Senior VP, Corporate Affairs, Royal Caribbean Group Known as Olimpia’s law, the Jon E. Huenemann measure would ban the sharing of Former Corporate and intimate or sexual content without Government Senior Executive the subject’s consent and ban the James R. Jones Among the candidates in this month’s municipal elections in Brazil is São Paulo Mayor Bruno promotion of sexist stereotypes Chairman, Covas (L), who is seeking re-election. // File Photo: Facebook page of Bruno Covas. and hate messages online. Monarch Global Strategies Page 3 Craig A. Kelly Brazil’s municipal elections will take place this month, with Senior Director, Americas Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil voters slated to elect mayors, vice mayors and city council- POLITICAL John Maisto ors in more than 5,500 cities across the country. Which are Director, U.S. Education Puerto Rican Law- Finance Group Q the most important races to watch? What political dynamics maker Arrested Nicolás Mariscal are at play? To what extent will the municipal vote be seen as a snapshot Chairman, for Corruption Grupo Marhnos of what’s to come in Brazil’s 2022 presidential and gubernatorial elec- Pro-statehood lawmaker Néstor Thomas F. McLarty III tions, and what’s at stake for President Jair Bolsonaro? Chairman, Alonso Vega, who won re-election McLarty Associates to office on Tuesday, has been Beatrice Rangel Pedro Cavalcante, professor of the master’s in public admin- arrested on federal corruption Director, istration program at the Institute of Public Law in Brazil: “It charges. He is accused of more AMLA Consulting LLC than doubling the salary of an Jaana Remes is the most atypical election since Brazil’s democratization employee and then demanding Partner, half of it in return, according to McKinsey Global Institute in the 1980s due to the pandemic’s effects on the economy A U.S. Attorney Stephen Muldrow. Ernesto Revilla and, especially, on social lives. Attention has been mainly focused on the Page 2 Head of Latin American spread of Covid-19, vaccines and economic recovery. As usual, the most Economics, Citi Gustavo Roosen important races are in the state capitals, which concentrate most of the Chairman of the Board, electorate, attract politicians with national ambitions and historically Envases Venezolanos Andrés Rozental tend to be more competitive than medium- and small-sized cities. In President, Rozental & São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre, the incumbents face tough Asociados races that will probably go to a second round. The pandemic brought Shelly Shetty Managing Director, Sovereigns changes in campaign strategies, such as restrictions on rallies and Fitch Ratings events in closed spaces, and also reduced the length of the campaigns. In this sense, a trend—seen in previous elections—is the prioritization of a digital campaign, with a focus on the use of social networks. Attention is directed toward continued fake news and the Electoral Justice’s attempts to combat it. In this context, incumbents have an advantage. They tend to maintain historically high re-election rates at the local level. It is also Vega // File Photo: @RepNesto- rAlonso via Twitter. Continued on page 3

ECONOMIC NEWS POLITICAL NEWS NEWS BRIEFS

Hurricane Eta Death Puerto Rico Law- Brazilian Authorities Investigate Hacking Toll, Damage Climbs maker Arrested on at Superior Court in Central America Corruption Charges Brazil’s federal police on Thursday launched an investigation into hacking of computers at Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei A lawmaker in Puerto Rico who was re-elected Brazil’s Superior Court of Justice, the Associat- said Thursday at least 50 people had been to office on Tuesday was arrested Thursday ed Press reported. The court’s head, Humberto killed in his country due to Hurricane Eta as on federal corruption charges, the Associated Martins, said all of the court’s sessions have its economic toll continues to mount, Prensa Press reported. Néstor Alonso Vega is accused been suspended until experts deem them to be Libre reported. The Category 4 storm caused of more than doubling the salary of an em- safe from hacking. The court has been meeting massive flooding and mudslides, with an ployee and then demanding half of it in return, in online sessions since the beginning of the avalanche burying 25 homes in the village of according to U.S. Attorney Stephen Muldrow. Covid-19 pandemic. Martins offered few details Quejá, according to the report. Authorities are Vega, who served four years in Puerto Rico’s about the incident except to say that the attack still trying to reach remote areas that have House of Representatives and is the president occurred on Tuesday. been isolated by floods. Currently a tropical of the Commission on Tourism and Social Well depression, Eta continues to linger in the Being, has pleaded not guilty to the charges. region, with rain forecast into the weekend, a Other legislators have faced similar accusa- behavior similar to the devastating Hurricane tions, with two members of the governor’s Veolia Sees Q3 Revenue Mitch in 1998, which caused billions of dollars pro-statehood New Progressive Party arrested Grow 6.4 Percent in in damage across multiple countries. The in August. The party’s head, Pedro Pierluisi, is Latin America leading the race to become Puerto Rico’s gover- Paris-based Veolia Environnement said nor by a small margin over Carlos “Charlie” Del- Thursday its revenue in Latin America grew 6.4 gado of the Popular Democratic Party, which percent in the third quarter of the year at con- supports the island’s current commonwealth stant exchange rates. The growth was driven status, NBC News reported Wednesday. mainly by tariff increases in Argentina (tied to inflation), the start-up of new contracts in Colombia’s Lower Peru and better results in Chile, Colombia and Ecuador, the company said in a statement. With House Members about 178,000 employees worldwide, Veolia Guatemalan authorities assess flooding. // Photo: Guate- designs and provides water, waste and energy malan Government. Asked to Quarantine management solutions. storm made landfall in Nicaragua on Tuesday before moving on to Honduras and Guatemala. The lower chamber of Colombia’s Congress In Central American countries taken together, abruptly ended its session on Thursday and the death toll from Eta has risen to at least 65, asked members to quarantine after a legislator Brazil to Allow GMO according to figures reported by the Associat- tested positive for Covid-19, Reuters reported. Soybean Imports ed Press. Maite Matheu, a country director at “Obviously this is a delicate and grave circum- From United States international humanitarian organization CARE, stance,” said the chamber’s president, Germán said Thursday that some two million Hondu- Blanco. “I’m going to end the session, because Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry has set new rules rans could be directly affected by the storm. I have the responsibility not to maintain de- that allow for the import of genetically modi- After suffering through droughts that had led bate.” Blanco identified the member who tested fied soybeans from the United States, Reuters to food shortages among subsistence farmers, positive as Alejandro Carlos Chacón of the reported Thursday. Demand for Brazil’s soy- Central Americans hit by this month’s floods Colombian Liberal Party. Chacón represents beans from China has left little of the nation’s may be even more inclined to migrate, she Norte de Santander department and has served production for domestic use, leading to price added. According to the U.S.-based National in the chamber since 2010. He tested positive increases for animal feed and ultimately sharp- Hurricane Center, Eta today should move north for Covid-19 after attending Wednesday’s leg- ly higher food prices in South America’s largest off the coast of Belize, and a tropical storm islative session, Reuters reported. Chacón did economy. The world’s top soy producer, Brazil watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. not immediately respond to a message from has been importing soybeans from neighboring Paraguay and Uruguay this year.

COPYRIGHT © 2020, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Friday, November 6, 2020 the wire service seeking comment. At least 150 FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 legislators may have been exposed to the virus, according to the lower chamber’s press office. hard to predict how mayors’ performances Former President Lula is actively supporting Legislators should remain in Bogotá, avoiding amid the Covid-19 crisis will be measured, some PT candidates in larger cities, but only travel to their home regions for 72 hours before because we are still in the midst of it. More a few are leading in the election polls.” being tested for Covid-19. Last week, Colombi- broadly, the main uncertainty over the an President Iván Duque ruled out an “indef- elections’ outcomes is due to the continuity Jayane Maia, research fellow inite” lockdown despite a rising number of of the ‘conservative wave,’ which since 2014 at the GIGA Institute for Latin coronavirus cases in the country, according to has been reducing center-left parties’ rep- American Studies and the GIGA Colombia Reports. He said such a move would resentation in all branches of government. A doctoral program: “Thanks amount to “social and economic suicide.” Although Brazil’s municipal election is also mainly to the emergency aid that many Colombia saw a steady drop in new reported a mid-term vote, it differs from the U.S. po- Brazilian families have been receiving since cases between mid-August and mid-September, litical system. The issues are predominantly April because of the pandemic, Bolsonaro’s but the country is seeing another surge in in- local and center on what mayors can do to approval rating is going up (considering fections. Colombia has more than 1.11 million improve the lives of the residents in terms of aggregate data at the national level), reported cases of the disease, the ninth-high- health, education and municipal day-to-day although his government has acted poorly est in the world and the third-highest in Latin operations. The governor’s support matters regarding the measures to prevent Covid-19 America after Brazil and Argentina, according to a candidate’s success at municipal levels, from spreading. Certainly, the upcoming to Johns Hopkins University. Colombia also mostly in small towns, but the president’s municipal elections are a test for Bolsona- has more than 32,000 reported deaths from political alignment is historically insignifi- ro’s increasing popularity. They will reveal Covid-19, the 12th-highest in the world and cant.” the real chances that ‘Bolsonarismo’ stands. the fifth-highest in Latin America, after Brazil, On the one hand, Bolsonaro’s allies might Mexico, Peru and Argentina. David Fleischer, emeritus take advantage of his increasing approval by professor at the University of attaching themselves to his image. On the Mexican Senate Brasília and editor of Brazil Fo- other hand, voters might see the elections A cus: “The most important elec- as a way of rewarding or punishing mayors Passes Law Against tions to watch are in São Paulo, where Mayor based on their actions (or lack thereof) Bruno Covas (PSDB-DEM-MDB) is seeking regarding the pandemic and other issues. Digital Violence re-election. This is a preview of São Paulo Gov. João Doria’s campaign for president in Mexico’s Senate on Thursday approved legisla- 2022. In Rio, incumbent Mayor Marcelo Criv- Voters might see tion that would punish digital violence, Reuters ella will not be re-elected. In Belo Horizonte, the elections as a way reported. Known as Olimpia’s law, the measure incumbent Mayor Alexandre Kalil will proba- of rewarding or pun- would ban the sharing of intimate or sexual bly be elected in the first round and become ishing mayors based content without the subject’s consent and ban a strong possible candidate for governor on their actions...” the promotion of sexist stereotypes and hate in 2022. In Porto Alegre, Manuela D’Ávila — Jayane Maia messages online, according to the report. The could become the first PCdoB mayor of a measure prohibits “malicious acts that cause state capital. In Recife, two grandchildren harm to the intimacy, privacy and dignity of of icon Miguel Arraes—João Campos (PSB) From this perspective, Bolsonaro’s approval women, which are committed through informa- and Marilia Arraes (PT)—will compete in the might not secure his allies’ victory. This is, tion and communication technologies,” Explica second round. In 2020, party coalitions for for now, the most likely scenario. His disap- reported. Activists had campaigned for years city council (proportional representation) proval rating is higher than the mayors’ in 15 to enact the legislation, which is named for are not allowed. Each party must launch its of the 26 state capitals, including big cities a “revenge porn” case in the state of Pueb- own slate of candidates. Many small, tiny such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo la. In an 87-0 vote, the Senate approved the and micro parties might disappear. This is a Horizonte. In these three cities, Bolsonaro measure, which calls for prison terms of three preview of the 2022 elections for federal and publicly supports specific candidates, who to six years and fines for perpetrators. Similar state deputies, when this same rule will hold. are currently trailing in the polls. Although measures had passed at the state level, but President Bolsonaro is not supporting any Brazilian politics have an unforeseen future the legislation, which now heads to the lower candidates in the first round, but perhaps ahead, one thing is certain: Bolsonaro knows chamber for consideration, would make digital he will endorse some in the second round. that his re-election depends on having the violence a national crime. Continued on page 4

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2020 support of local politicians who are closer from the economic and corruption crises of to the voters and might serve as a decisive the 2010s. Former President Luiz Inácio Lula Erik Brand electoral link. It’s not aimlessly that he has da Silva retains a certain amount of personal Publisher [email protected] been supporting some candidates such as popularity, but that appears to be fading. Celso Russomanno (Republicanos), who is However, it’s worth noting the second trend: Gene Kuleta Editor running for mayor in the city of São Paulo. [email protected] After all, one lesson that Bolsonaro has Anastasia Chacón González learned from the pandemic is that good The PT’s brand is still Reporter & Associate Editor alliances can hold politicians in power, severely, and perhaps [email protected] regardless of their mistakes. Nevertheless, it terminally, damaged seems that his image might harm rather than from the economic help his allies, which might cost him crucial and corruption crises Michael Shifter, President electoral support, and hence votes.” of the 2010s.” Rebecca Bill Chavez, Nonresident Senior Fellow — Brian Winter Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow Brian Winter, editor-in-chief Joan Caivano, Senior Advisor of Americas Quarterly and Michael Camilleri, Director, Rule of Law Program vice president of the Amer- Candidates supported by President Jair Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow A icas Society/Council of the Bolsonaro don’t seem to be doing particular- Héctor Castro Vizcarra, Nonresident Senior Fellow Americas: “There are mayoral elections ly well, either. For all the talk of Brazil being Julia Dias Leite, Nonresident Senior Fellow happening in all of Brazil’s 5,568 cities so ‘polarized’ between those two figures, this Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program it can be hard to identify clear trends. But election reminds us it’s a continent-sized Peter Hakim, President Emeritus two come to mind. The first is the continued country where local factors are often more Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow poor performance of the Workers’ Party, or important in politics.” Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and PT. The PT began this year lacking a mayor Latin America Program Manuel Orozco, Senior Fellow in any of Brazil’s most populous 100 cities, The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A Xiaoyu Pu, Nonresident Senior Fellow and polls suggest the party won’t do better section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow in 2020. This tells you the PT’s brand is still at [email protected]. Mateo Samper, Nonresident Senior Fellow severely, and perhaps terminally, damaged Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development, External Relations & Special Projects

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