Altering Frequency Estimates of Hindsight in Others Via Stereotyping: Asians as a Model Minority DI.NESSA E. WRIGHT The role racial stereotypes play in influencing attributions of hindsight bias in oth­ HARRY L. HOM, JR.* ers was investigated. White college students made frequency estimates of hindsight bias for I of 3 different ethnic groups—Asians, Blacks, and Whites—with regard Southwest Missouri to a spoiling event. The bias was estimated to be less for Asians than for both St.itc- University Whiles and Blacks, with no significant difference between the latter two groups. (Consistent with earlier research, this outcome supported the notion of positive stereo­ typing being linked to Asians; the negative stereotyping ascribed to Blacks was unsubstantiated. Future research should be aimed at the social of hind­ sight bias, because overestimating its presence in others may lead us to minimize its prominence in out everyday thinking.

rom the social cognitive perspective, stereotypes or "White" prime, thev altered their responding to are beliefs we have about individuals as mem­ stereotypic traits pertaining to social judgments of Fbers of a group (Macrae, Stangor, & Hewstone, Black and White individuals. 1992). They are cognitive structures that have a major Several researchers (Chan, 1991; Oyserman & impact on perception, , and and Sakamoto, 1997; Sue & Kitano, 1973) have reported facilitate the information processing involved in per­ that Asian Americans are generally seen as being smart, son perception, which results in positive or negative intelligent, competitive, and diligent. Other positive attributes (Dovidio, Evans, & Tyler, 1986). Author nni<'. At the time this study was conducted, both authors were To accommodate all the information about the affiliated with the Psychology Department at Southwest Missouri main people we encounter every day, we categorize State University, Springfield, MO 05804 . The study was conducted the information, which simplifies our processing task. by Denessa Wright under the direction of Dr. 1 larrv I loin. (Because Dr. Horn's Asian sin name might have altered participants' judg­ Stereotyping is one way we do that. This social cate­ ments, no mention of his involvement with the research was made gorization can be derived from people's desire to eval­ to them.) uate themselves positively; therefore, they are motivated As an undergraduate, Denessa Wright served as co-president of Psi Chi and was die committee chair of Diversity Education lor People to see their own group as different from and perhaps against Intolerance and Discrimination for the I Iniversity's Student better than other social groups (I lamilton ik Sherman, (.overnmeni Association. Another sign of her multi-ethnic interest 199 1). was that she was one of three students enrolled in intermediate (Chinese. She graduated, moved to Arizona, and hopes to enroll in Stereotyping is a cognitive process that seems to a graduate program to pursue her interest in multi-ethnic issues. happen automatically (Dovidio et al., 1986). Prior Special thanks to Shanna Brooks lot her comments on an ear­ exposure to stimuli, such as people, ideas, or even lier version of this manuscript. She is currendy wen king as an under­ graduate research assistant to the second author. Also we thank Dr. mere words, influences the perceiver's interpretation Donn Kaiser who agreed to have his name as the faculty sponsor of new information. Dovidio et al. (1986) used a prim­ on the informed letter of consent. ing technique to examine the role of stereotypes in Correspondence concerning this article should be sent to Harry social cognition. They found that when White par­ Horn, Psychology Department, Southwest Missouri State University, Springfield, MO65804. Electronic mail maybesenl to: II1.H770K" ticipants were presented a single word, either a "Black" SMSU.EDU.

Winter 2003 • Psi Cm JOURNAL OK UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH 139 Copyright 2003 b) Psi Chi, The National Honoi Societ) in Psycholog) (Vol. 8. No. I. IM-1 1:1 ISSN HiKiMl.'ifi). nli\ Supervisor ALTERING FREQUENCY ESTIMATES OF HINDSIGHT BIAS D Wright and Horn

attributes include studious, hard working, modest, prices as if they "knew-it-all-along" (Moodie-Dyer, and quiet. They are portrayed positively as the "model Horn, & Wright 1999). minority." Related to our judgments of others is the notion Black stereotypes are more negative than stereo­ of self-serving bias. Feldman (1995) found that people types linked to Asians and Whites. On the other hand, rated themselves higher on positive qualities, such as Blacks are described more negatively than Asians being responsible, interesting, and bright, but signif­ (Sears, Citrin, & Laar, 1995). Blacks are often con­ icantly lower on negative aspects, such as being cruel sidered violent, lazy, loud, and welfare-dependent and snobbish. When making judgments about others, (Sigelman & Tuch, 1997). Many believe that Blacks the negative qualities were much higher. We overes­ are more aggressive and outgoing than Whites and timate the accuracy of our judgments and underesti­ Asians (Rushton, 1999). These positive or negative mate the degree to which others share our skills and stereotypes may bias judgments about other social positive attributes. Negative behaviors seem to be more groups on the basis of race. prevalent in others than in us. Thus individuals should Another identified form of bias is the hindsight be more likely to claim that they exhibit hindsight consequence, the "knew-it-all-along" effect. This bias bias less often than others. is characterized by individuals who exaggerate what Self-serving bias may lead us to believe that others could have been predicted in foresight. For example, exhibit both hindsight bias and stereotyping more after the most recent presidential election, individu­ frequently than we do. In support of this view, Hass, als were heard proclaiming that "they knew" that Katz, Rizzo, Bailey, and Moore (1992) found that some George W. Bush would make it to the White House. individuals shield their self-image by claiming they This tendency to believe that an individual would have are not as biased as others. predicted Bush's victory is an example of hindsight Moodie-Dyer et al. (1999) investigated the role bias. Synodinos (1986) used a 1982 gubernatorial elec­ of positive/negative racial stereotypes lot judgments tion to show that the postelection judgment of indi­ about hindsight bias frequency in others on the basis viduals for the winner was higher than those made of race. White college participants were read a defi­ prior to the election. Once individuals know an out­ nition of hindsight bias and given an example of base­ come of an event, they tend to try to explain and make ball player Mark McGwire displaying the bias. This sense of the situation. "Making sense" out of being study was conducted immediately after McGwire's told the outcome is so natural that individuals may be historic home-run feat. Students made judgments unaware that the outcome knowledge has biased their about how often they thought that Asian, Black, or judgment (Fischhoff, 1977). Hindsight bias, much White groups show hindsight bias while watching a like stereotypes, seems to happen automatically. sporting event. Researchers have examined how stereotyping Participants were cued about race on the basis of strengthens or mitigates hindsight bias. Carli (1999) a single-word label, which should be subtler than the found that for either a positive outcome (marriage) or use of stronger cues such as making judgments about negative outcome (rape), hindsight bias was increased the characteristics of the specific race. This approach by the addition of stereotvpicallv antecedent details allowed for the detection of stereotyping in White indi­ relevant to each outcome but not actually in the story. viduals who view themselves as being essentially non- Bodenhausen (1990) utilized a criminal assault or sex­ prejudiced (Hass et al., 1992). The participants also ual harassment/molestation scenario and found that made judgments about how much these targeted racial individuals exhibited hindsight bias for judgments groups would consider Mark McGwire as likeable or about a nonstereotypic but not a stereotypic offender. conceited on the basis of his hindsight bias exclamations Evidently, in the latter instance, the outcome infor­ that he knew he would hit the winning home run. mation contradicted the stereotype associated with Moodie-Dyer et al. (1999) anticipated that hind­ the offender. These studies draw attention to the role sight bias frequency judgments would be lower for of stereotyping in the production of hindsight bias Asians and higher for Blacks when compared to Whites. and to other aspects of a social nature important for This expectation was based on the positive stereotypes the of stereotyping and hindsight. linked to Asians and the negative stereotypes associated Our decision-making and social strategies may be with Blacks. influenced greatly by how well we judge others' atti­ The results showed that hindsight bias frequency tudes and beliefs. For example, it seems likely that was thought to be greater for Whites than for Asian many of us avoid others who engage in extensive hind­ and Blacks, with no significant difference between the sight bias when they speak about a variety of daily out­ latter groups. This finding, however, occurred with comes ranging from sports scores to stock market women but not with men. For the likeabilitv and con-

140 PSICHIJOI LNALOF UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH • Winter 2003 Copyright 200Sb> I'M Chi, It National HonorSociet) in Psy< holog) (Vol. 8, No. 4, IS9-143 ISSN 1089-4136). ALTERING FREQUENCY ESTIMATES OF HINDSIGHT BIAS • Wright and Horn

ceit measures there was no interaction with gender. stereotypes attributed to the targeted ethnic group These findings were consistent with the notion that influence judgments of hindsight bias frequency. the positive stereotype of Asians being a model minor­ ity resulted in Asians being seen as less likely to engage Method in hindsight bias. Contrary to the predictions, the esti­ Participants mates for Black populations were die same as for Asians Forty-seven White students (M= 21.65, SD= 4.47) and less than for Whites. from introductory physical healfh and education classes Nearly every participant responded to an open- participated in this study. A 2 X 3 between-subjects ended question for Blacks but not for the other racial factorial design was used; the first factor was gender groupings. These responses were mainly of a racial of the participant and the second factor was the par­ nature such as "every race has the same opinions" and ticipants'judgments about one of three different racial "color doesn't matter in relation to personality and groups: Asian, Black, and White. Individuals were talent." It is possible that the participants, particularly assigned to the various conditions in a counterbal­ the women, were exhibiting compensatory bias in anced order by gender and the targeted racial group, their hindsight frequency ratings. They may have which resulted in nearly equal proportion of each attempted to deal with the emotional aspects of the gender for the targeted racial groups: Asians (8 men, stereotypes by hiding their views or compensating for 9 women), Blacks (6 men, 9 women), and Whites (8 them, which could have accounted for the difference men, 7 women). On the basis of self-reported race, between Whites and Blacks. non-White participants, fewer than 3% of total par­ The current study further examined the role of ticipants, were excluded from the data analysis. All stereotyping in making hindsight bias frequencyjudg- participants were unpaid volunteers and received no ments about other ethnic groups by altering procedures extra course credit for participation. Each participant from the earlier work by Moodie-Dyer et al. (1999) in signed a consent form to participate. three ways. First, the athlete was changed from a spe­ cific individual (Mark McGwire) to a more generic one: Materials a baseball player. Because the earlier findings noted for The participants completed the questionnaire gender may be due to the fame and popularity of Mark anonymously but were asked to provide information McGwire, use of a more generic baseball player would about gender, age, and ethnicity. The written instruc­ thus extend the generality of the earlier study. Second, tions for completing the questionnaire included the college students were told that their responses should underlined statements, "This study is not concerned be based on the views of their peers rather than on their with your personal views," and "It regards the views own beliefs. This mefhod was designed to minimize die of your peers at this University." A newspaper article possible role of compensatory bias. And third, an as­ was cited that described a baseball player's display of sessment of the participants' understanding of hind­ hindsight bias after hitting a winning home run. The sight bias was included. If participants failed to grasp keywords included in the story were, "After the game, the notion of hindsight bias, then they could not be ex­ the baseball player sat with his bat beside him and pected to make reliablejudgments about its frequency said, 'I knew tonight would be the night I would save in other racial groups. the game.'" Like die earlier study by Moodie-Dyer et al. (1999), Hindsight bias was then explained in the follow­ a brief survey instrument using only a single-item measure ing way: of the key dependent variable, hindsight bias frequency, was used because of time constraints. Because this It is probably unlikely that the baseball player was as certain that he would hit the home run before the approach is not as convincing as a multiple-item approach, game as he was after the game. After hitting the it is important to be able to assess die reliability of the home run, he tended to exaggerate the extent to earlier findings with the single-item measure. which he would have predicted it. This tendency The investigation was designed primarily to repli­ of the baseball player to overestimate the extent to cate the earlier supportive findings of a posidve stereo­ which he would hit the home run has been labeled hindsight bias or the "knew-it-all-along" effect. type being associated with Asians when compared to both White and Black individuals. In line with our ini­ After reading the information about hindsight tial belief that Blacks would be viewed negatively, we bias, the participants answered five questions. First, hoped to minimize the role of compensatory bias and participants rated their understanding of the hind­ demonstrate differences in participants' judgments sight bias concept on a scale from 1 (low) to 9 (high). when comparing Blacks and Whites. Such an outcome Using the same Likert scale with different anchors, 1 would support the notion that the positive/negative (never) to 9 (always), hindsight bias frequency was

Winter 2003 • Psi CHI JOURNAL OF UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH 141 Copyright 2003 by Psi Chi, The National Honor Society in Psychology (Vol.8, No. 4. 139-143/ ISSN 1089-4136). ALTERING FREQUENCY ESTIMATES OF HINDSIGHT BIAS • Wright and Horn assessed by asking how often their peers expect (SD = 1.61). For conceit, the means were as follows: Asians/Blacks/Whites to show hindsight bias when Asians, 5.29 (SD= 1.26); Blacks, 5.67 (SD= 1.80); and watching sporting events. Two other questions meas­ Whites, 6.00 (SD = 1.60). Because participants' judg­ ured participants' perceptions of the baseball player's ments of hindsight bias frequency occurred before likeability (1 = likeable, 9 = unlikable) and conceit (1 = these judgments, they might have altered their like- not conceited, 9 = conceited) from the perspective of ability and conceit assertions. Although both of these Asians/Blacks/Whites. The last question was open- measures were significantly related to one another, ended and allowed participants to list any character­ r= .56, /; < .01, neither was linked to hindsight bias istics or attributes about tlte targeted racial group. frequency, Rvalues > .05. Few respondents chose to answer the open- Procedure ended question about their specific targeted racial The researcher presented this study to three phys­ group. Thus this outcome did not allow us the ical education classes during class time. The researcher opportunity to examine the nature of their answers first handed out consent forms for the participants to for the role of compensatory bias. complete if they wished to participate. Then, the three versions of the questionnaire instructing the partici­ Discussion pants to make judgments about one of the three tar­ In line with the earlier findings by Moodie-Dyer et geted racial groups (Asians/Blacks/Whites) were al. (1999), White college students perceived hindsight distributed in a counterbalanced order to approximate bias frequency to be significantly lower for Asians when an equal number of men and women judging each race. compared to Whites. Moodie-Dyer et al. (1999) found that the estimates for Asians and Blacks were similar; Results in the present study, however, frequency of hindsight Initially the dependent variables of understanding bias was judged to be lower for Asians than Blacks. the concept of hindsight bias, hindsight bias frequency, Contrary to our expectations, no significant difference and likeability and conceit were subjected to a 2 X 3 was found for the White-to-Black comparison. There analysis of variance (ANOVA) with the factors being, was no evidence that these outcomes were related to respectively, gender of the participant and ethnicity of the gender of the participants. Also, we failed to find the target group. None of these analyses (Rvalues > any significant differences for the measures of likeabil­ .05) revealed significant effects for gender, so the fac­ ity, conceit, and understanding of the hindsight bias tor was excluded from any further consideration. concept. Perhaps a better method to assess participants' Participants were first asked to rate their under­ understanding of hindsight bias would be for them to standing of the hindsight bias concept. A one-way describe the bias in their own words or to apply the con­ ANOVA on participants' understanding of the con­ cept to a new situation. cept showed that there were no significant differences Earlier, Moodie-Dyer et al. (1999) found that their (/-'< 1) for the targeted group of Asians (M= 7.29, difference in hindsight bias frequency judgment for SD= 0.68), Blacks (M= 7.00, SD= 0.40), and Whites the different racial groups was linked primarily to the (M= 7.15, SD= 0.39). The level of these means, rang­ women. That was not the case in the current study, as ing from 7.00 to 7.29, revealed their understanding there was no evidence that participant's gender was to be moderately high. a factor. However, this outcome might have been due In support of our expectations for the measure to procedural differences between the two studies, of hindsight bias frequency assertions, a significant including attributing hindsight bias for a generic base­ difference was found for the targeted racial groups, ball player rather than for a famous one, adopting the F(2, 47) = 13.47, p< .01. Post hoc comparisons utiliz­ perspective of peers, or the time of testing. Moodie-Dyer ing the Tukey honestly significant difference test et al. (1999) conducted their study right after Mark showed that participants attributed significantly low­ McGwire broke the home run record. Informally, ered hindsight bias frequency to Asians (M = 4.06, many students, including women, commented that SD= 1.52) than to Whites (M = 5.93, SD= 1.22) and they watched Cardinal games during the latter stages Blacks (M= 6.07, SD = 0.96),p values <. 001. No sig­ of McGwire's pursuit of the record. nificant difference was found when comparing Blacks The belief that Asians would show less hindsight and Whites, p> .05. bias than the other target groups supports the stereo­ No significant differences were found for the typic view that Asians are a model minority and pro­ measures of likeability and conceit, Fvalues < 1. For like- vides an important replication using a simple word ability, the means for Asians, Blacks, and Whites, respec­ label to cue race and the single-item methodology. tively, were 4.82 (SD = 1.51), 5.00 (SD= 1.81), and 4.80 Whereas the earlier outcome of Moodie-Dyer et al.

142 Psi CHI JOURNAL OF UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH n Winter 2003 Copyright 2003 by Psi Chi, The National Honor Society in Psychology (Vol. 8, No. 4, IS9-143 ' ISSN 1089-4136). ALTERING FREQUENCY ESTIMATES OF HINDSIGHT BIAS D Wright and Horn

(1999) focused on self-judgments about others, the university is 3%, thereby providing limited contact ("in rent work extends the generality of this outcome between White college students and minorities. to making judgments about peers. This outcome was In conclusion, focusing on hindsight bias fre­ accomplished through the use of a between-subjects quency judgments draws attention to the social psy­ design, which minimizes the role of social compar­ chology of hindsight bias. In general, the social isons in contrast to the use of a repeated measures psychologist is concerned with how we think about design, whereby individuals would be asked to make ourselves and influence one another. If we underes­ judgments about all three racial groupings. timate the frequency of hindsight bias in ourselves Further investigations should be directed at and overestimate it in others, what are the possible expanding die network of factors related to hindsight pernicious social and personal consequences? Others' bias frequency, determining whether individual dif­ pronouncements about seemingly obvious outcomes ferences in views toward racial groups is a factor, and may be viewed positively or negatively when consid­ perhaps using a more focused rather than the global ering the expected baseline level of hindsight bias on or vague event such as watching sporting events. the basis of ethnicity. Frequency of hindsight bias judg­ Conceivably, providing participants with a scenario ments may inadvertently act to reinforce or to main­ with more specific details may result in even greater tain the stereotypes associated with ethnicity. differences in their assertions. flic current findings for hindsight bias frequency References are qualified by a number of issues. First, we did not Brigham,J. C, & Wasserman, A. VV. (1999). The impact of race, racial attitude, and gender on reactions to the criminal trial of directlv assess positive/negative stereotypes linked to O.J. Simpson. Journal of Applied , 29, 1333-1370. the different ethnic groups. Future research should Bodenhausen, G. V. (1990). Second-guessing the : stereotypic and hindsight biases in perceptions of court cases. Journal oj assess the specific contents of the stereotypes prior to Applied Social Psychology, 20, 1112—1121. the participants' judgments about hindsight bias fre­ (larli, L. 1.. (1999). Cognitive reconstruction, hindsight, and reac­ tions to victims and perpetrators. Psychology and Social Psychology quency. A second issue is whether compensatory bias Bulletin, 25, 966-979. plays a significant role in making judgments about Chan,J. (1991). Asian stereotypes: Popularized images of Asians and Asian vmei ic ans. Retrieved May 14, 2000. from Blacks. We attempted to minimize compensatory bias http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~jnrhan stereo!vpes.lnni by having college students make judgments about their DovidioJ. F., Kvans. V. & Tyler, R. B. (1986). Racial stereotypes: The contents of their cognitive representations. Journal of Experimental peers rather than themselves. We thought the use of a Social Psychology 22, 22—37. single-word descriptor for race would be subtle enough Feldman, R. S. (1995). Social psychology. Englewood Cliffs, N): Prentice- Hall. to trigger racial stereotyping, but it is possible the cue Fischhoff, B. (1977). Perceived iniormativeness of facts. Journal oj was a potent one when the target group involved Blacks. Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 5, 349-358. I Ience the demand characteristics may have produced Hamilton, D. I... ik Sherman,]. VV. (1994). Stereotypes. In R. S.Wyei compensatory bias. But, unlike the earlier study by & T. K. St till (Eds.), Handbook of social cognition (2nd ed., Vol. 2, pp. 1-08). Hillsdale. N|: F.rlbaum. Moodie-Dyer et al. (1999), participants rarely i esponded I lass, (.. R., Katz, L, Rizzo.N., BaileyJ., & Moore. L. (1992). When to the open-ended question regarding the tat get group. racial ambivalence evokes negative affect, using a disguised measure of mood. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, IS, II llicv did, their statements did not suggest that com­ 786-797. pensatory hi.is was a factor. Further research to exam­ Macrae,C. \.. Stangor, C, & Hewstone, M. (Eds.). (1992). Stereotypes ine the role of compensatory bias via an experimental and stereotyping. New York: Guilford Press. Moodie-Dyer, A, Horn, H. I..,Jr., & Wright, D. (1999, April). Hindsight manipulation would be beneficial. bias: Does race matter- Poster session presented al the annual Despite contrary evidence presented by Brigham meeting of Western Psychological Association. Portland, OR. Ovserman. D. & Sakamoto, I. (1997). Being Asian American: iden­ and Wasserman (1999), who showed the importance tity, cultural constructs and stereotype perception. Journal of of race for hindsight judgments, participants' asser­ . [pplied Behavioral Science, > >, 435—453. Pious. S., ik Williams, T. (199"i). Racial stereotypes from the days tions of no hindsight bias differences between Whites of American slavery: A continuing legacy. Journal of Applied Social and Blacks may be accurate. First, Sigelman and Tnch Psychology, 25, 795-817. Rushton, |. P. ( 1999). Race evolution and behavior. New Brunswick. (1997) argue that Whites' negative stereotypes of NJ: Transaction Publishers. Blacks have lessened today as compared to previous Sears, D. O., Citrin,)., & l.aar. C. V. (1995, September). Black excep- tionalism in a multicultural society. Paper presented at the joint decades. Second, the participants in our study were meeting of the Society for Experimental Social Psychology and all college students. Pious and Williams (1995) found the European Association of Experimental Social Psychology, Washington DC. that noncollege participants were almost twice as likely Sigelman, L., & Tuch, S. A. (1997). Metastereotypes: Blacks' per­ to endorse racial stereotypes. Bodenhausen (1990) ceptions of Whites' stereotypes ol Blacks. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61, 87-101. noted the possibility that his earlier findings may not Sue. S., & kitano. II. 11. (I97.'i). Stereotypes as a measure of suc­ be naturalistic due to the university setting for the cess. Journal of Social Issues, 29, 8.'i-98. Synodinos, N. F. (1986). Hindsight distortion: "I knew-it-all-along Study. Third, this Midwest university is not as diverse and I was sine about it." Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 16, as some areas; the entire minority population of the 107-117.

Winter 2003 • Psi CHI JOURNAL OF UNDERGRADUAI E RESEARCH 143 Copyright 2003 by Psi Chi, fhe National Honoi Society in Psychology (Vol. 8, NoI. .139-14 3 / ISSN 1089-4136).