FEWS Special Report FEWS Sahel 1999/2000 March 31, 2000 SR 2000-1 Current Vulnerability Assessment

espite a late season start in certain parts of the fonds (lowland recessional) crops.In the west heavy pest damage to recessional crops in recent D5 Sahelian countries covered by FEWS (Mauri- (Brakna,Gorgol,Trarza and western Assaba Wilayas), months. tania,Mali,Burkina Faso,Niger,and Chad),the 1999 rains were irregular and inadequate for rainfed crop The FEWS 1999/2000 CVA of rural population rainy season (May to October) was exceptionally fa- and pasture development.Heavy rains in August groups in Mauritania shows that most pastoralists vorable for crops and pastures.Although flooding and September and flooding on the Senegal River and agropastoralists are food secure for the second and pest attacks caused severe damage to crops in destroyed irrigated crops. consecutive year as a result of rich pasture condi- localized areas,the impact on national crop produc- Despite lower production in some areas,the tions in the center and east and good animal health. tion was minor.In some areas,flooding and heavy Ministry of Rural Development and the Environ- Likewise,food security conditions are good for the rains increased the area for recessional production. ment estimates national cereal production at a majority of farmers in the center and east following Burkina Faso,Mali and Mauritania achieved record record 198,100 MT.The gross cereal balance for an excellent rainfed harvest and the good outlook production this year,while Chad and Niger had av- 1999/2000 shows a deficit of over 278,300 MT com- for bas-fonds crops in most areas. erage to above-average cereal harvests.In all but pared to a deficit of nearly 311,300 MT in 1998/99. FEWS analysis identifies extremely food-insecure Chad,the national cereal balance for the 1999/2000 Adding estimated net imports yields a net surplus populations in parts of Brakna,Gorgol and Trarza consumption year (November to October) is posi- of almost 3,900 MT.The cereal balance is based on Wilayas (figure 2).Affected pastoralists in Trarza tive,after taking into account projected net imports. preliminary cereal production estimates released in Wilaya rely almost exclusively on livestock products In expectation of the good harvests,cereal prices October that do not take adequate account of for direct consumption and to finance food began their seasonal decline earlier than usual.Post- harvest millet prices – a good barometer of tradi- Areas of the Sahel with Food-Insecure Populations tional cereal prices in general – were well below average (1995-98) at most reporting markets cov- 1999/2000 Current Vulnerability Assessment ered by the various national market information systems (SIMs).

Most Sahelians have improved food access as a Mali Chad result of the good cereal and cash crop harvests,low Mauritania Niger cereal prices,generally excellent pasture and water- ing conditions for livestock,high river and water table levels for off-season garden and crop produc- tion and high livestock-to-cereal terms of trade. However,each country has problem zones where this year’s crop and pasture production was Burkina Faso poor and other sources of income are not sufficient Degree of Food Insecurity to bridge the gap between home food production and consumption needs until the October 2000 Moderate Moderate, High and Extreme Moderate and High High and Extreme rainfed harvest.In most of these cases,households KM High Dispersed Food-Insecure have suffered successive years of poor production Populations 0 200 400 and have depleted their assets.Based on the Source: FEWS 1999/2000 FEWS current vulnerability assessments FEWS, March 2000 (CVAs),approximately 49,000 people reside in ex- Populations Residing in Food-Insecure Areas in the Sahel (in thousands) tremely food-insecure areas,1.6 million in highly Extremely Food Insecure Highly Food Insecure Moderately Food Insecure food-insecure areas,and 3.8 million in moderately Percentage of Percentage of Percentage of food-insecure areas (figure 1 and FEWS categories Population in National Population in National Population in National of food insecurity box). Country Affected Areas Population Affected Areas Population Affected Areas Population Mauritania 49 2 86 3 52 2 Mali 0 0 0 0 292 3 Mauritania Burkina Faso 0 0 1,219 11 2,664 15 Abundant and well-distributed rains during the Niger 0 0 0 0 699 7 1999 rainy season in south-central and southeast- Chad 0 0 302 4 109 2 ern Mauritania (Hodh Ech Chargui,Hodh El Gharbi, Total 49 1,607 3,816 Guidimaka,Tagant and eastern Assaba Wilayas) Note:Tables in this report show the entire population of affected socioeconomic groups at the given administrative level unless otherwise noted. This does not imply that the entire population of those groups is food insecure (see FEWS categories of food insecurity box). yielded excellent rainfed harvests and pastures and Source: FEWS provided favorable growing conditions for bas- Figure 1 FEWS, March 2000 Populations in Food-Insecure Ech Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi and Trarza Wilayas. The Rice farmers in the Niger River Valley and those Areas in Mauritania in 1999/2000 affected pastoralists will have adequate access to near other important rivers and dams have experi- Population (thousands) food for most of the year because available crop enced their fifth consecutive year of record rice pro- Extremely Highly Moderately Wilaya Food Food Food residues will allow herds to remain close to settle- duction. Harvest period rice-to-millet terms of trade, Moughataa Insecure Insecure Insecure ments. Once the herds depart, households should a good barometer of relative household purchasing Assaba be able to intensify coping activities, including re- power, are high. Rice-farming households are con- Barkèol,Boumdeïd, Guèrou,Kiffa 0 11 5 liance on wild foods. Farming and agropastoralist sidered food secure. Brakna households in the west had poor rainfed produc- Pasture conditions and water availability are the Aleg,Bababé, tion and lost irrigated crops to flooding. They shifted best in recent memory in the pastoral zone of Boghé,Magta- Lahjar,M’Bagne 18 40 21 resources to take advantage of good walo (river re- northern Mali (Gao, Kidal and Tombouctou Regions Gorgol cessional) or bas-fonds growing conditions, but they and northern Kayes, Koulikoro and Mopti Regions). Kaedi,M’Bout,Monguel 10 21 0 had to intensify coping activities to meet food Increased civil security in recent years has facilitated Hodh Ech Chargui Amourj,Bassikounou needs between October/December (when rainfed food flows from surplus zones to the deficit pastoral Djiguenni 0 0 15 or irrigated crops are normally harvested) and zones. Harvest period livestock-to-cereal terms of Hodh El Gharbi March/April (when walo harvesting begins). Given trade are the highest in the past 5 years. Despite Tamchekett (Affolé) 0 0 3 Trarza extensive pest damage to walo crops, they will con- these improved conditions, many pastoralists and Boutilimit,Mederdra, tinue to experience hardship but should be able to agropastoralists in this zone have only recently re- Ouad Naga,R’Kiz meet their food needs. Farm households in the turned, following the intense period of civil insecu- Rosso 21 14 8 southeast had excellent rainfed harvests, but in cer- rity in the early 1990s. Many have benefited from Total 49 86 52 tain areas excess water limited the area planted to UNHCR resettlement assistance but are still strug- rd Note:Level of analysis—Moughataa—3 level administrative unit bas-fonds crops. Without the full contribution of bas- gling to make ends meet. In northern Kayes Region, Source: FEWS/Mauritania Figure 2 FEWS, March 2000 fonds crops, farmers will have to intensify coping ac- civil insecurity continues to disrupt livelihoods. tivities. Their proximity to Mali, where harvests were Given the tenuous situation, pastoralists and purchases. Pasture conditions in Trarza are so poor good, will ensure adequate market food supplies. agropastoralists across the northern pastoral zone that animal herds have been moved out of the area, are considered moderately food insecure (figure 3). leaving sedentary household members without Mali Fishing populations have experienced 3 consec- their main source of food access for most of the Despite a late start to the 1999 rainy season in cer- utive years of good fish catches. The quantities of year. Affected farmers in the Senegal River Valley of tain parts of the agricultural zone and isolated cases fish off-loaded at the port of Mopti in February were all 3 Wilayas lost their rainfed crops due to drought of flooding, Mali posted its second consecutive year almost double those of last year. The good eco- or excess moisture, their irrigated crops to flooding of record national cereal production. Estimated nomic outlook across Mali is bolstering demand for and their recessional crops to pests. Some farmers in gross cereal production of almost 3 million MT is 16 fish as households with extra income seek to diver- flood-affected areas have already received assis- percent higher than last year and 28 percent higher sify their diets. Fishing households have adequate tance from WFP and the Government’s Food Secu- than the 1994/95-1998/99 average. The national ce- income to secure their food needs and are rity Commission (CSA), but not all those affected real balance shows a gross surplus of 228,000 MT considered food secure. have received assistance. In some cases, quantities (before counting net imports) and a net surplus of Urban populations make up 27 percent of the distributed were inadequate because they were 255,500 MT. Cereal prices, which remained relatively total population in Mali. Urban poverty levels have based on the earlier optimistic outlook for reces- low throughout 1999, are likely to be even lower in sional crops. Many of these households are experi- 2000, given the good cereal harvests in the region Populations in Food-Insecure encing their third or fourth consecutive year of poor that will limit exterior demand for Malian cereals. Areas in Mali in 1999/2000 cereal production. The FEWS 1999/2000 CVA considered the capac- Population (thousands) FEWS analysis identifies highly food-insecure ity of farmers, agropastoralists, pastoralists, fishing Moderately populations in parts of Assaba, Brakna, Gorgol and households and the urban poor to gain access to Region Circle Food Insecure Gao Ansongo 41 Trarza Wilayas. Poor pasture and watering condi- available food supplies. Bourem 19 tions are forcing the affected pastoralists to graze For dryland farmers and agropastoralists in the Gao 33 herds far from homesteads. As early as April, the Sudanian and Sahelian agropastoral zones, rainfed Menaka 41 Kayes Kayes 13 herds will have to be moved out of the area entirely, cereal production was above average in all Regions. Nioro 24 depriving sedentary family members of their main Despite a fall in cotton production compared to the Yelimané 21 source of food access. The affected farmers normally previous 2 years, production remained well above Mopti Bankass 3 Koro 5 obtain most of their food access from rainfed crop the 1994/95-1998/99 average. Although production Tombouctou Abeibara 5 production and this year’s production was poor. Al- data for non-cereal crops are not available, field ob- Goundam 25 though these farmers enjoyed a good season last servations indicate above-average production of Gourma-Rharous 14 Kidal 12 year, they were highly food insecure in 1998 and these important food and cash crops (cowpeas, Niafunké 10 1996. For the second consecutive year, the agropas- groundnuts, Bambara nuts and sweet potatoes). The Tessalit 10 toralists in Boghé Moughataa (Brakna Wilaya) lost generally good crop harvests, combined with in- Tin Essako 5 Tombouctou 13 most of their crop harvest and have depleted their come from livestock sales, remittances, off-season Total 292 very modest animal herds to purchase food. gardening and seasonal wage labor will leave dry- Note:Level of analysis—Arrondissement—4th level administrative unit FEWS analysis identifies moderately food-inse- land farmers and agropastoralists food secure. Source: FEWS/Mali cure populations in parts of Assaba, Brakna, Hodh Figure 3 FEWS, March 2000 page 2 FEWS Special Report 1, March 31, 2000 decreased over the past 2 to 3 years. With low cereal FEWS Categories of Food Insecurity prices expected in 2000, urban populations will sumption period.They will be forced to reduce con- enjoy increased market access to cereals and are n Current Vulnerability Assessments,FEWS classifies areas sumption and dispose of their productive assets, considered food secure. Ior specific socio-economic groups within areas as food thereby undermining their future food security. For the second consecutive year, no populations secure or food insecure.In food-secure areas,an average • Extremely food-insecure populations are now,or will in Mali need emergency food assistance. Moder- household can maintain normal seasonal consumption pat- soon be,unable to meet their consumption needs. ately food-insecure pastoralist and agropastoralist terns during the given consumption period using income They have already exhausted their strategies for ac- populations in the northern pastoral zones would derived from strategies that do not compromise future food quiring food and are currently destitute. benefit from continued micro-development pro- security.In food-insecure areas,this is not the case. Although the CVA assigns a food security status to each grams. Continued efforts to reduce civil insecurity To assist decision-makers in prioritizing emergency food socio-economic group at the administrative level that con- are also necessary to facilitate economic recovery. allocations within and between countries,FEWS classifies stitutes the unit of analysis,it cannot quantify the number food insecure populations using the following operational of food-insecure people.Rather,the CVA applies a food secu- Burkina Faso definitions: rity classification to an ”average”member of the area or The 1999 rainy season was favorable for crop and • Moderately food-insecure populations can meet their group,the entire population of which can be counted.The pasture production across much of Burkina Faso. Es- consumption needs during the given consumption larger the area and the more heterogeneous the group,the timated gross national cereal production of almost period only by intensifying their normal coping more likely it is that food security levels will vary among 2.7 million MT is a new record, exceeding last year’s strategies.These households are vulnerable to any households within the group.Detailed food needs assess- subsequent shock,either in the given or subsequent level by 2 percent and the 1994/95-1998/99 aver- ments are required to identify the precise numbers of af- consumption period. age by 13 percent. National availability from produc- fected people and appropriate interventions. • Highly food-insecure populations will not be able to tion and stocks exceed needs by more than 200,000 meet their consumption needs during the given con- MT. When projected net imports are added, the final cereal balance for 1999/2000 shows a net surplus of prices and production; however, these Provinces are However, most households in these Provinces are over 440,000 MT. The surplus should keep cereal generally surplus in cereal production, and this year agropastoralists and can take advantage of good prices at low levels for a second consecutive year. is no exception. Low food prices in 1999 have eased pastures and favorable livestock-to-cereal terms of The FEWS 1999/2000 CVA considered the capac- food access of the urban poor, and expected low trade to compensate for lost crop production. In ity of farmers, agropastoralists, pastoralists and the prices this year should bolster their purchasing Kouritenga, Oubritenga, Passoré, Sourou and urban poor to gain access to available food supplies. power. All of these factors have contributed to im- Yatenga Provinces, farm households have limited al- Two consecutive years of relatively good food and proved food access for most rural and urban popu- ternative sources of income. They have depleted as- cash crop production have bolstered household lations, leaving average households food secure in sets and relied heavily on coping activities over the food access from own production for most farmers 19 of Burkina’s 30 Provinces. past couple of years. However, expected low cereal and agropastoralists. Excellent pasture conditions However, in the central Provinces of Boulkiemdé, prices are likely to make market food supplies rela- have increased herd productivity, and high live- Sanguié and Sanmatenga, below-average cereal tively affordable, and favorable conditions for off- stock-to-cereal terms of trade are facilitating easy production over the past 2 to 3 years has reduced season gardening will provide income and food. market access for agropastoralists and pastoralists. farm households’ main source of food access. Contri- Farmers and agropastoralists in all 8 Provinces are Farmers in important cotton-producing Provinces butions to income from livestock and cash crops are considered moderately food insecure. saw their income from cotton decline from the high limited except in Sanmatenga, where cowpeas are Currently, no specific interventions have been levels of the past 2 years because of lower cotton an important cash crop. In 1998/99, Sanguié was planned to respond to food needs in the highly considered highly food insecure and Boulkiemdé food-insecure Provinces of Boulkiemdé, Sanguié Populations in Food-Insecure and Sanmatenga moderately food insecure. Low ce- and Sanmatenga. However, the Government is en- Areas of Burkina Faso in 1999/2000 real prices over the course of 1999 helped house- couraging populations in these localities to take ad- Population (thousands) Highly Moderately holds acquire food from the market, but they drew vantage of water availability to intensify livestock Province Food Insecure Food Insecure heavily on assets and intensified secondary income and off-season gardening and cropping activities. Boulkiemdé 463 0 activities to finance the purchases. This year’s poor Kouritenga 0276 production has only heightened their food insecu- Niger Oubritenga 0336 Oudalan 0152 rity. All 3 are considered highly food insecure Despite a late start to the 1999 rainfed agricultural Passoré 0267 (figure 4). season, higher-than-average and well-distributed Sanguié 275 0 In another 8 Provinces in the north and center rainfall in August and September resulted in a na- Sanmatenga 481 0 (Kouritenga, Oubritenga, Oudalan, Passoré, Séno, tional cereal harvest of 2.8 million MT, surpassed Séno 0335 Soum, Sourou and Yatenga) estimated cereal pro- only by the 1998/99 record harvest. Domestic cereal Soum 0269 Sourou 0387 duction was below average (except for Passoré) and availability from production and stocks falls short of Yatenga 0642 insufficient to cover province-level consumption covering consumption requirements by about Total 1,219 2,664 needs. In Passoré, estimated production is above av- 78,000 MT. With planned net imports of 195,000 MT Note 1:Level of analysis—Province—2nd level administrative unit erage, but field reports suggest that the estimates and pledged food-aid imports of approximately Note 2:Because the level of analysis in the Burkina Faso CVA is the are overly optimistic. All of these provinces were 13,000 MT, the national food balance presents a net Province,the population numbers in food-insecure areas are generally found to be moderately food insecure in 1998/99. surplus of 130,000 MT. This is only the second time higher than those in other FEWS Sahel countries where CVAs were carried out using data from lower-level administrative units. The Provinces of Oudalan, Séno and Soum suffered in the last decade that Niger has had a positive food Source: FEWS/Burkina Faso the largest production shortfalls relative to average balance for 2 consecutive years. Cereal prices should Figure 4 FEWS, March 2000 this year: –26, –33, and –24 percent, respectively. therefore remain low.

FEWS Special Report 1, March 31, 2000 page 3 Populations in Food-Insecure economic activity. Average households will only be (28,900 MT), but only half the level of 1997/98, Areas of Niger in 1999/2000 able to meet their food needs through intensifica- when it was about 240,000 MT. Given this level of Population (thousands) tion of secondary income activities that will cause overall availability, cereal prices are unlikely to re- Moderately Department Arrondissement/City Food Insecure hardships in the months ahead but will not com- main at the very low levels of 1999 but are likely to Agadez Agadez City 29 promise future food security. increase within normal seasonal bounds except in Arlit 35 Urban populations represent 16 percent of areas that experienced significant production short- Tchirozerine 71 Diffa Diffa Town 6 Niger’s total population. They derive their income falls. N’Guigmi 10 from salaried jobs, commerce, occasional wage The 1999/2000 CVA indicates that all pastoralists Dosso Dosso Town 13 labor and artisanal activities. Civil servants have not and most farmers in the Sahelian zone will be food Maradi Maradi City 58 Niamey Niamey City 136 received their salaries for months and have accumu- secure during the 2000 hungry period (June to Sep- Tahoua Tchintabaraden/Abalak 61 lated over 12 months of salary arrears over the past tember). However, because of the poor rainfed mil- Tahoua Town 24 couple of years. In Niamey, where civil servant let production in Kanem Prefecture, farmers in Mao, Tillabéry Tillabéry 195 Zinder Zinder City 61 salaries indirectly support up to half the city’s popu- Nokou, Rig-Rig and N’Gouri Subprefectures are Total 699 lation of 600,000, the impact of unpaid salaries is felt considered highly food insecure (figure 6). Note:Level of analysis—Arrondissement—3rd level administrative unit throughout the economy of the capital city. Resi- Considering the overall good level of production Sources: FEWS/Niger dents of the other major urban centers, Maradi and in the Sudanian zone, Sudanian farmers outside of Figure 5 FEWS, March 2000 Zinder (each with over 100,000 inhabitants) and flood-affected areas will be food secure during the Tahoua and Agadez (each with over 50,000 inhabi- coming hungry period. However, because of the The FEWS 1999/2000 CVA considered the capac- tants), rely less heavily on government salaries, but heavy food and cash crop losses in flood-affected ity of farmers and agropastoralists, pastoralists and have suffered similar declines in urban welfare be- areas, Sudanian farmers in parts of Logone Oriental, the urban poor to gain access to available food cause of the steady decline in the Nigerien econ- Mayo-Kébbi, Moyen-Chari, and Tandjilé Prefectures supplies. omy. Although 2 successive good rainfed harvests are either moderately or highly food insecure. Popu- Pastoralists derive most of their income from have lowered food prices, many urban households lations in some of these areas are already experienc- sales of animals and dairy products, through which have had to draw on assets and intensify coping ac- ing difficulty meeting their food needs. they purchase food and satisfy other needs. This tivities to make ends meet. The poorest urban Food access conditions for the highly food inse- year, in all 7 Departments, availability of range households are considered moderately food cure will be rendered even more difficult by the fact grasses and agricultural by-products exceeds that insecure. that food availability in rural areas of the Sudanian needed to support current livestock levels. Well- In moderately food-insecure rural arrondisse- zone may be limited, in spite of the relatively good filled seasonal ponds will allow maximum use of ments, food-for-work programs to rehabilitate wells, food harvest. This is because farmers sold a large available pasture. Relatively high livestock-to-cereal plant trees and attenuate desertification could help part of their food at harvest time to traders who terms of trade mean that pastoralists will have to populations that have exhausted their resources have transported the food out of the rural areas to sell fewer animals to purchase food, permitting over the last few years. urban centers where purchasing power is stronger. them to build herd sizes. Thus pastoralists are considered food secure. Chad Populations in Food-Insecure Farmers and agropastoralists obtain most of Chad’s 1999 rainy season was characterized by poor Areas of Chad in 1999/2000 Population (thousands) their food directly from crop production and a rainfall distribution at the beginning, with improved Highly Moderately smaller portion indirectly from market purchases. rainfall starting in early July. Heavy rains in July and Prefecture Subprefecture Food Insecure Food Insecure They finance food purchases through remittances, August resulted in extensive flood damage in parts Batha Djedaa 0 5 Kanem Mao 92 0 the sale of livestock and livestock products, cash of the Sudanian zone and reduced yields of dune Nokou 35 0 crops (particularly cowpeas), off-season market gar- millet in parts of the Sahelian zone. Also, in the Rig Rig 10 0 dening products, firewood, charcoal and artisanal north of the Sahelian zone, relatively dry conditions Lac Ngouri 10 0 Logone Bebedjia 19 11 products. This year’s excellent cereal harvest, an in September and October favored crop pest prolif- Oriental Bessao 8 21 above-average cowpea harvest and favorable con- eration, and the pest damage to crops lowered Doba Rural 20 8 ditions for off-season gardening and irrigated and yields. Outside the flood- and pest-affected areas, Laramanye 0 18 Mayo-Kébbi Lere 3 0 recessional cultivation have left most farmers and yields were high. The overall result was better-than- Moyen-Chari Bedjondo 48 0 agropastoralists food secure (figure 5). average production (+9 percent) but lower produc- Koumra 15 0 However, farmers and agropastoralists in the ar- tion than last year (-15 percent), which was a record Kyabé 2 21 Maro 4 0 rondissements of Arlit and Tchirozerine (Agadez De- year. Pasture and surface water are plentiful south of Sarh Rural 36 0 partment), Abalak and Tchintabaraden (Tahoua the Saharan zone. River levels are high, favoring fish Tandjilé Lai 0 25 Department), Tillabéry (Tillabéry Department), and production and off-season gardening. Total 302 109 N’Guigmi (Diffa Department) are moderately food Given net gross national cereal production of Note 1:Level of analysis—Canton—4th level administrative unit insecure. In all of these arrondissements, this year’s 928,100 MT, estimated cereal consumption needs of Note 2:For Logone Oriental,Mayo-Kebbi,Moyen-Chari,and Tandjilé Prefectures,detailed flood damage information at the village level was cereal production was below the 1994/95-1998/99 1.18 million MT, net stocks of almost 50,000 MT, and available for certain cantons.In these cases,only the flood-affected average. Despite favorable bio-physical conditions projected imports of over 76,000 MT, the national population of the canton is enumerated as highly food insecure.In other for off-season production, high costs of fuel for irri- cereal deficit is estimated at approximately 123,000 flood-affected cantons,where detailed lists of villages were not avail- able,10 percent of the canton population is arbitrarily enumerated as gation pumps and of inputs are limiting production. MT. Even in years of excellent production, like highly food insecure. In Agadez and Diffa Departments, civil insecurity 1998/99, Chad registers an overall cereal deficit. This Source: FEWS/Chad raises food and transportation costs and limits year’s deficit is substantially larger than last year’s Figure 6 FEWS, March 2000 page 4 FEWS Special Report 1, March 31, 2000