Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps – impact on hydropower sector

Marco Cortesi, Alpiq-Hydro Power Generation 27th of September, Lima, Peru • Active in more than 20 European countries • Around 8’300 employees ( Services: 6,900) • Revenue: CHF 6’715 Million • Installed capacity: approximately 6’300 MW • Generation: approximately 17’800 GWh (67 % in Switzerland) • Supplies one third of Switzerland with • Holding Company headquarters in Lausanne Alpiq at a glance

3 Organigramm

General Management Jasmin Staiblin 1 CEO

Generation Commerce & Trading Energy Services Financial Services Michael Wider 1 Markus Brokhof 1 Reinhold Frank 1 Thomas Bucher 1 Deputy CEO CFO

Hydro Power Generation Power West Alpiq InTec (AIT) Accounting & Controlling Human Resources Christian Plüss Pierre Guesry Peter Limacher Edgar Lehrmann Daniel Huber

Nuclear Power Markets Central Eastern Kraftanlagen Gruppe Finance Projects & Legal & Compliance Generation and South Eastern Europe Reinhold Frank Transformation Peter Schib Michaël Plaschy Peter Dworak Martin Schindler

Thermal Power Cross Commodity Trading Taxes Communication & Generation & Origination Eva Catillon Public Affairs Matthias Zwicky Michel Kolly Richard Rogers a.i

RES & Generation Operations Treasury & Insurance Risk Management Development Petter Torp Lukas Oetiker Walter Hollenstein André Schnidrig a.i

Information Technology Thomas Habel

General Management Business division Functional division Business unit

Functional unit 1) Member of the Executive Board

4 Hydro Power Generation Alpiq – specialist of alpine Hydro Power Key activities in Hydro Power

• Asset management of 24 hydropower plants of high flexibility with a total installed capacity of 3000 MW (23% of installed capacity in Switzerland)

• Project Management of large extension and maintenance (e.g. Nant de Drance 900 MW, FMHL+ 240 MW)

• Operation and Maintenance of many hydropower plants with own staff respective with sub company Hydro Exploitation SA

• Portfolio Optimisation with extraordinary insight of European energy markets

• Environmental management and climate change impact mitigation (glacier retreat)

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 6 Alpiq Hydropower in Europe

Switzerland Existing hydropower Hydropower 2876 MW Small hydropower 4.8 MW

Hydropower under construction Hydropower 584 MW Italy Small hydropower 2 MW Existing hydropower Small hydropower (3) 9.45 MW

France Existing hydropower Small hydropower 2.25 MW

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 7 Portfolio of 39 hydropower plants in Switzerland

8 Investments for future: pump storage projects FMHL+

Investment volume ca.: 330 mio CHF Start operation: 2016 (tests ongoing) Capacity: a new 240 MW (total 480 MW) Equipment: 2 x 4 Pelton turbines Annual production: 1’000 GWh

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 9 Investments for the future Pump storage projects: Nate de Drance

Installed capacity: 900 MW Investment volume ca.: 2 bl. CHF Start operation: 2018 Equipment: 6 Francis pump turbines Annual production: 2’500 GWh

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 10 Alpiq – expert of alpine hydro power Grande Dixence

• 100 km of tunnels in a basin of 420 km2 • 50 glaciers and 80 intakes • Surface covered by glaciers : 65 % • Mean annual runoff 500 hm3 • Gross head: 1883 m • Total capacity: about 2’000 MW

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 11 Alpiq – expert of alpine hydro power Electra Massa

• 200 km2 catchment size • Grosser Aletsch- glacier (largest glacier of the alps) • Surface covered by glaciers (2009) : 56 % • Mean annual runoff 440 hm3 • Gross head: 1883 m

• Dam height: 122 m • Reservoir capacity: 9.2 hm3 • Surface covered by glaciers (2009) : 56 % • Mean annual runoff 440 hm3 • Gross head: 1883 m • Annual production: 564 GWh • Total capacity: 340 MW

12 Climate Change Impact on Hydropower Impacts of climate change in the Alps

Source: Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 (CH2011) Source: IPCC special report on Sources and Climate Change Mitigation 14 Impacts of climate change in the Alps

15 Impacts of climate change in the Alps

 1855

Today 

Source: «Glaciers. Passé-présent du Rhône au Mont Blanc» Editions Slatkine, 2010.

• Increase in Temperature is happening on and will be continued in the ongoing century

• Impact on alpine catchments is already visible since many decades

 Loss in glacier surface and volume Source: Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network GLAMOS 16 Challenges for the hydropower production under climate change conditions

Expected changes on the mid- and long- term : • Volumes : are there enough installed capacities (spill-over, security downstream)? • Runoff regime: Shift of diurnal and seasonal runoff curves? • Bed load/sediments: increase of bead load and sediment transport? • Extreme events: Lowering the availability of power plants or parts of it? • New potential: glacier lakes, chances and risks?

17 Project FUGE – research program in order to quantify impact on hydropower sector

« Glacier retreat – will there be sufficient inflow for hydro power production in future? ». Scientific partners : VAW/ETH.

Objectives : analyse of glacier change in past and model their evolution for the 21st century. Evaluate their impact on hydropower production and the maintenance of its infrastructure . Approach: 1. Measurement of ice-thickness, determine ice-volume. 2. Modelling of future glacier evolution, as a function of several climate scenarios. 3. Modelling of future runoff evolution on a daily timescale and basin scaled spatial resolution.

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 18 Project FUGE – studies over the Swiss Alps

Already done(~ 70 % Alpiq)

To do

19 Measurement of ice-thickness on Aletsch glacier

20 Measurement of ice-thickness on Aletsch glacier

Maximal ice-thickness over > 800m 21 Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution

• Models: • GERM (Glacier Evolution Runoff Model), modelling of future runoff evolution of hydropower catchments (four different modules)

• Glacier evolution module based on glacier dynamics (cfsFlow)

• High number of base data is necessary for modelling process (e.g. digital elevation models, historic runoff data, glacier thickness, etc.)

Glacier de Trift, été 2003 22 Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution

Example Moiry glacier/ model calibration: • Modelling of known glacier runoff evolution (DEM, climate data) . • Adjusting model parameter in order to match the observed evolution as good as possible.

23 Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution

Glacial system reacts highly sensitive on changes of climate scenarios : 0 -1 -2 -3

hot – dry -4C ° -5 -6 -7

-8

2006 2046 2051 2056 2061 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2066 2071 2076 2081 2086 2091 2096 2101

cold – wet (1978) 24 Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution

Evolution of Aletsch glacier with « medium » climate

Gebidem dam scenario

25 Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution

drought 2003

1969

: :

operation Start

Gebidem

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 26 Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 27 Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution Impact on sediment transport

28 Modelling of runoff and glacier evolution Impact on sediment transport

«Potential for future hydropower plants in Switzerland: a systematic analysis in the periglacial environment (PHP)» (Boes, Funk, Ehrbar, Delaney; ETHZ)

Quelle: Verlandungsrate Schweizer Stauseen, Daniel Ehrbar, VAW 2016

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 29 Immediate impact on hydropower operation

• Full load of turbines during one entire month in summer 2015 with 55 m3/s • Average Massa runoff at 70 m3/s with peak runoff up to 120 m3/s • 46% over decadal average during this Periode + 17% over yearly average • Water loss (spillway) of 16.6 GWh

30 New potential due to climate change?

• Additional potential due to glacier retreat.

• Additional production of 100 GWh per year as result of climate change.

 Glacier retreat leads to new Water intake

potential for hydropower! «Oberaletsch» head

 Climate change as driver of m ≈750 new hydropower?

Power house Gebidem Gebidem dam

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 31 New potential due to climate change?

• Ice thickness measurements in order to localise glacier bedrock

• Local topography discovers possible lake formation

• Again: new potential for hydropower !

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 32 New potential due to climate change ?

Natural lake forming

Additional dam of 100 m

33 New potential due to climate change?

Source: National research program 61, Project NELAK 34 Glacier change: scenario for 21st century

Glacier coverage and thickness Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 35 Glacier change: scenario for 21st century

Scenario «median»

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 36 Glacier change: scenario for 21st century

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 37 Conclusion

What are the main impacts on hydropower of climate change in the alps: • Capacity and position of intakes and tunnels, dams and the security facilities are subject of changes in topography and hydrology • Increase in capacities of turbines?

• Higher bed load and sediment transport, abrasion of turbines • Estimation cost/benefit of potential investments • Continuation of investigations for better understanding and in order to take the right decisions

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 38 Conclusion

What are the main impacts on hydropower of climate change in the alps: • Capacity and position of intakes and tunnels, dams and the security facilities are subject of changes in topography and hydrology • Increase in capacities of turbines?

• Higher bed load and sediment transport, abrasion of turbines • Estimation cost/benefit of potential investments • Continuation of investigations for better understanding and in order to take the right decisions

Climate change and glacier retreat in the Swiss Alps , 27th September 2016 39 Thank you for your attention!

Marco Cortesi, phone +41 341 23 03 [email protected] New potential due to climate change ?

41 New potential due to climate change ?

1966 2013

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