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Determinants of Service Sector Growth in Botswana BIDPA Publications Series BIDPA Working Paper 56 Synthetic Gem QualityMarch 2018 Diamonds and their Potential Impact on the Botswana Economy Determinants of Service Sector Growth in Botswana Roman Grynberg Margaret Sengwaketse MasediMpho MotswapongRaboloko PROOF Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis BOTSWANA INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS Synthetic Gem Quality Diamonds and their Potential Impact on the Botswana Economy BIDPA The Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA) is an independent trust, which started operations in 1995 as a non-governmental policy research institution. BIDPA’s mission is to inform policy and build capacity through research and consultancy services. BIDPA is part-funded by the Government of Botswana. BIDPA Working Paper Series The series comprises of papers which reflect work in progress, which may be of interest to researchers and policy makers, or of a public education character. Working papers may already have been published elsewhere or may appear in other publications. Mpho Raboloko is Associate Researcher at the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis. ISBN: 99912 65 63 5 © Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis, 2018 Disclaimer The views expressed in this document are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of BIDPA. Determinants of Service Sector Growth in Botswana TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ........................................................................................................................ iv 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 2. Related Literature Review ................................................................................... 3 3. Data and Preliminary Analysis ............................................................................ 4 4. ARDL Methodology ........................................................................................... 6 5. Results and Discussion ........................................................................................ 7 6. Conclusions and Policy Implications ................................................................. 10 References ................................................................................................................... 11 Appendices .................................................................................................................. 13 BIDPA Publications Series BIDPA Working Paper 56 | iii Determinants of Service Sector Growth in Botswana ABSTRACT This study examines the factors affecting service sector growth and development in Botswana. Using annual time series data from 1980 to 2015, the study employs the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique to identify the factors that contribute to service sector growth. The results show that gross national expenditure, domestic credit to the private sector and gross fixed capital formation contribute positively to the growth of the service sector in Botswana. However, trade openness is found to negatively impact the growth of service sector in the country. The policy implication of the results is that in formulating service oriented policies, government should focus on factors that augment the growth of services sector. Specifically, government should increase spending on the service sector and its sub-sectors. Also, the banking sector should avail credit to the private sector as this is essential for the growth and development of the service sector. Keywords: Service Sector, Co-integration, Error Correction Model, ARDL BIDPA Publications Series BIDPA Working Paper 56 iv | 1. Introduction The service sector has become an important sector for Botswana’s growth performance.It is one of the best performing non-mining sectors for the country. The trade, hotels and restaurants as well as the banks, insurance and business services are among the four major sectors in terms of their contribution to the economy’s Determinantsgross domestic of Service Sector product Growth in(GDP) Botswana. The share of trade, hotels and restaurants to GDP increased from 11.8 percent in the national 1.development INTRODUCTION plan (NDP) 9 to 24.6 percent in NDP 10, while the banks, insurance and Thebusiness service services sector share has becomeincreased an fromimportant 12 percent sector in for NDP Botswana’s 9 to 24.6 growth percent performance. in NDP 10 (see ItGoB, is one 2017) of .the best performing non-mining sectors for the country. The trade, hotels and restaurants as well as the banks, insurance and business services are among the four majorThe importance sectors in ofterms services of their to the contribution economy alsoto the lies economy’s in the fact gross that domesticmany services product provide (GDP). The share of trade, hotels and restaurants to GDP increased from 11.8 percent ininputs the nationalto the production development process plan particularly(NDP) 9 to mining 24.6 percent and to in other NDP sectors. 10, while Thus, the their banks, growth insurancehas wider and productivity business services and efficiencshare increasedy outcomes from 12for percent activities in NDP outside 9 to 24.6of percentthe services in NDP 10 (GoB, 2017). sector.One of Botswana’s key challenges has been that its rapid economic growth has not Thebeen importancebroad based of asservices growth to inthe the economy non-mining also lies sectors in the has fact been that slowmany (servicessee Mupimpila provide and inputs to the production process particularly mining and to other sectors. Thus, their growthMoalosi, has 2016). wider productivity and efficiency outcomes for activities outside of the services sector. One of Botswana’s key challenges has been that its rapid economic growth has notFigure been 1 showsbroad thebased services as growth sector in contribution the non-mining to overall sectors economic has been growth slow (Mupimpilain Botswana. The andfigure Moalosi, shows 2016).that the services sector contribution to overall GDP has increased over time. FigureThis increase 1 shows could the services be due sector to drop contribution in mining to overallsector economiccontribution growth or overall in Botswana. increase in Theservices figure output shows growth. that Thisthe servicestrend shows sector that contribution the economy to overall has considerably GDP has increased diversified over time. This increase could be due to drop in mining sector contribution or overall increaseovertime in. services output growth. This trend shows that the economy has considerably diversified overtime. Figure 1:Contribution of Services Sector to GDP (percentage): 1980 - 2015 Figure 1: Contribution of Services Sector to GDP (percentage): 1980 - 2015 80 60 40 20 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Statistics Botswana (2016a) Source: Statistics Botswana (2016a) Excluding mining,mining, thethe serviceservice sector sector outperformed outperformed other other sectors sectors in termsin terms of averageof average contribution toto GDPGDP growth growth during during the theNDP NDP 10 period.10 period. The trade,The trade,hotels andhotels restaurants and restaurants contributed 24.6 percent while general government, banks, insurance andcontributed business 24.6 services percent recorded while 22.5general percent government, and 21.2 banks, percent insurance of the total and valuebusiness added services growthrecorded respectively 22.5 percent (Figure and 21.2 2). Clearly,percent ofthe the three total service value sub-sectors;added growth trade, respectively hotels and (Figure restaurants, general government and banks, insurance and business services were the most important sectors after mining in terms of1 contribution to GDP. BIDPA Publications Series BIDPA Working Paper 56 | 1 2). Clearly, the three service sub-sectors; trade, hotels and restaurants, general government and banks, insurance and business services were the most important sectors after mining in Determinants of Service Sector Growth in Botswana terms of contribution to GDP. Figure 2:Sector's Average Contribution to GDP Growth: NDP 10 Figure 2: Sector’s Average Contribution to GDP Growth: NDP 10 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 Trade, Hotels & Banks, Insurance General Construction Social & Transport & Mining Manufacturing Agriculture Water & Restaurants & Business Government Personal Communications Electricity Services Source: GoB (2017) Source: GoB (2017) The growth growth of ofthe the services services sector sector comes comes at a attime a time whenreal when value real addedvalue fromadded mining from hasmining has been declining due to weak global demand for luxury goods, particularly diamonds. However,been declining the duedownside to weak of global the services demand sectorfor luxury is that goods even, particularly though its diamonds. overall contributionHowever, tothe GDPdownside is at of 64 the percent, services itssector contribution is that even to though exports its isoverall only contribution7 percent while to GDP diamonds is at make64percent, up 70 its percentcontribution of exports to exports (Statistics is only 7 Botswana,percent while 2017). diamonds make up 70 percent of Theexports service (see Statistics sector alsoBotswana, contributes 2017) . significantly to employment. One of Botswana’s key challenges over the years has been high levels of unemployment. The high growth rates overThe servicethe years sector have also
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