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2017 SRM Annual Meeting Abstracts 2017 SRM Annual Meeting Abstracts Oral Technical Session: Inventory, Monitoring, and Assessment AFRICAN DROUGHT: PIONERING CRITICAL PREDICTIVE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT MITIGATION AND RANGELAND MANAGEMENT. Joseph N. Matere*; Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Nairobi, Kenya Changing climate, growing populations, settlement and increasing land area needed for crop production leads to further rangeland degradation and pastoralists who depend on mobility for their livelihoods face greater challenges, uncertainty and risk. The above conditions lead to lack of water and pasture in traditional grazing areas and along livestock migration routes often resulting in increased resource based conflict, higher livestock mortalities, poverty and non-sustainable coping strategies that further exacerbate an already precarious eco-system. Drought, erratic rainfall and lack of pasture and water influence livestock body condition, reproductive capacity and marketability, leading to unfavorable terms of trade for the pastoralists and short and long term food insecurity and malnourishment. All sectors of society are affected and there is need to focus on impact at family and community level in order to develop effective risk management and response strategies. Attaining food security remains a major commitment of the all governments in Africa. For example the Kenya government has outlined in the Agriculture Sector Development Support Programme (ASDSP 2010- 2020) as well as the Vision 2030 Economic pillar its endovor to realise zero hunger by the year 2030. The population of Kenya which stands now at over 40 million is dependent on agriculture as the main stay. However against this backdrop, there remain major challenges in attaining this noble objective. More often than not, lack of accurate prediction and analysis to address the recurrent food insecurity results into cyclic nature of same impacts season after season. A novel web-based Predictive Early Warning System decision support tool was developed by FAO in collaboration with Texas A and M University and the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). The tool integrates near real-time forage quantity assessment, short and long-term forecasting of forage and livestock water status to allow stakeholders to examine risk and identify potential tradeoffs and responses associated with drought and changing climate. PARAMETERIZING THE PRECISION OF LINE-POINT INTERCEPT ESTIMATES BY RESAMPLING SIMULATED SPATIAL DATA. Seth Simonds*1, Gregg E. Simonds2; 1Open Range Consulting, Salt Lake City, UT, 2Open Range Consulting, Park City, UT Rangelands are spatially heterogeneous and characteristically so; however, the sampling protocols used to estimate rangeland attributes assume spatial homogeneity, which is Abstract Proceedings of the 70th SRM Annual Meeting, Technical Training and Trade Show Red Rock and Rangeland Jan. 29 to Feb. 2, 2017 – St. George, UT paradoxical. This study tests the hypothesis that stratified sampling techniques that assume homogeneity across the sampled space, like line-point intercept, generate statistically meaningful estimates of rangeland cover attributes. By repeatedly generating line-point estimates over simulated data with known spatial attributes, a distribution of possible percent cover estimates is created. By analyzing this distribution, the precision of line-point intercept estimates can be parametrized in terms of a truth standardized confidence interval. The results indicate a tremendous lack of precision (i.e. wide variation) in estimates generated by line-point intercept, especially for low percent cover attributes. Therefore, homogeneity of the strata cannot be assumed and stratified sampling cannot be validly applied to estimate rangeland attributes; science, policy and debate of rangelands must rest upon alternative estimating procedures. ANNUAL PHOTO MONITORING: A RELATIONSHIP OF DROUGHT, GRAZING AND CHEATGRASS INVASION. Garry D. Brown*, Sherel K. Goodrich; USDA Forest Service, Vernal, UT The health of rangeland vegetation can be influenced by numerous factors including grazing, fire, drought and other disturbances. It is often a combination of disturbances over time and space that result in a gradual change to the landscape. However, in some cases, continuous annual photo monitoring can capture astounding changes that can be directly associated or related to an event of specific disturbance. From an evaluation of numerous spring and fall annual monitoring using repeat photography on the Uinta Mountains, Utah, the relationship between drought and the spread of cheatgrass has been dramatic and relatively abrupt. The photos in this study identify two periods of drought that appear to have initiated a conversion of once native perennial grasses to nearly 100 percent cover of cheatgrass in a matter of a few years. Annual monitoring using simple repeat photography, especially when it comes to capturing the outcomes of annual events, will tell a story that can sometimes change our thinking or shed light on an improved management idea. This annual monitoring can assist managers to more effectively make changes, if needed, during drought conditions to maintain the preferred perennial vegetation. DISTRIBUTION OF NATIVE GRASSLAND HABITATS IN SOUTH DAKOTA: A NEW MODEL FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. Peter J. Bauman*1, Benjamin T. Carlson1, Tanner J. Butler1, Michael C. Wimberlly2, Alexander J. Smart2, Joseph G. Blastick3, Cody Grewing4, Matthew W. Morlock5; 1South Dakota State University Extension, Watertown, SD, 2South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, 3The Nature Conservancy, Clear Lake, SD, 4South Dakota Department of Game, Fish, and Parks, Rapid City, SD, 5Pheasants Forever, Brookings, SD Native grasslands and their associated wetlands are crucial to emerging natural resource issues in South Dakota. We utilized the South Dakota Farm Service Agency’s Common Land Unit (CLU) data and US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Abstract Proceedings of the 70th SRM Annual Meeting, Technical Training and Trade Show Red Rock and Rangeland Jan. 29 to Feb. 2, 2017 – St. George, UT Imagery Program (NAIP) county mosaic aerial imagery to evaluate 22.6 million acres of land 44 eastern South Dakota counties to determine the extent of remaining native grasslands. We analyzed land in approximately one mi2 sections to identify all cropping and other land disturbances. Remaining land tracts were then categorized as potentially native grassland or woodland. Finally, we removed all known water bodies > 40 acres as defined by the South Dakota Statewide Water Bodies layer to determine the remaining undisturbed grassland/wetland complex. Overall, 5,488,025 acres (24.2%) of eastern South Dakota were designated as potentially native land. Approximately 14.9 million acres (65.9%) were deemed to have a cropping history while approximately 1.6 million acres (6.9%) were found to have some type of land disturbance not indicated by a CLU crop code, for a total of 16.5 million acres (72.8%) of all lands with a proven disturbance history. Within the 22.6 million-acre evaluation area, 1.4 million acres (6.1%) were found to have permanent protection from future conversion. Nearly 1 million acres of the approximately 5.5 million acres of undisturbed land (17.5%) had some type of permanent conservation protection status. In total, we identified 962,734 protected native acres, representing only 4.3% of eastern South Dakota’s total land base. Our results will inform future decisions regarding grazing management, endangered species, and water quality related to buffer zones, wetlands, and storage and will serve as a template for the northern Great Plains. USE OF THE GLOBAL LAND-POTENTIAL KNOWLEDGE SYSTEM FOR PLANNING AND EVALUATION OF RANGELAND RESTORATION PROJECTS. David W. Kimiti*1, Jeffrey Herrick2, Amy Ganguli1, Jason W. Karl2, Derek W. Bailey3, Corinna Riginos4; 1New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, 2USDA-ARS, Las Cruces, NM, 3New Mexico State University, Las Cruses, NM, 4U. Wyoming, Laramie, WY Lack of monitoring and reporting of rangeland restoration outcomes often hampers efforts to improve, replicate, and upscale effective restoration practices to other affected areas. The Global Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) aims to support these efforts by providing tools for land managers to inventory their resources, match treatment and control plots for restoration projects based on biophysical similarity and potential productivity, and monitor and evaluate project outcomes. We highlight current and potential applications of the LandPKS mobile application suite, including LandInfo and LandCover. LandInfo is a site characterization tool that is currently used in over 10 countries for collecting basic soil and topographic information. When combined with local climate information provided through the system, LandInfo can be used to determine site potential and identify ecological sites. LandCover is a tool for collecting soil and vegetation cover data that is compatible with large-scale rangeland monitoring efforts in the United States (e.g., NRCS National Resources Inventory; BLM Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring program) and facilitates monitoring of changes in plant community composition and assessment of wind and water erosion risk. Both these apps provide summary results to the user immediately assessment at plot level is completed, providing real-time information for decision making. The LandPKS system allows users Abstract Proceedings
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