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Flood Mapping and Risk Assessment of the Paraíba River Basin, Alagoas, Brazil: Case Study

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Flood Mapping and Risk Assessment of the Paraíba River Basin, Alagoas, Brazil: Case Study Systems & Management 11 (2016), pp 431-443 FLOOD MAPPING AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE PARAÍBA RIVER BASIN, ALAGOAS, BRAZIL: CASE STUDY Paulo Vitor Ribeiro Marques da Silva1, Ricardo Abranches Félix Cardoso Junior1, Gustavo Carneiro de Noro- nha1 1 Fluminense Federal University (UFF) ABSTRACT Flood maps are an important instrument in the prevention, control and management of floods, as they can define areas of risk. Thus, the present study aimed to map potential flood risk areas in the urban area of Quebrangulo, a municipality located in the state of Alagoas. The mapping was based on population and households data, obtained from IBGE demographic census of 2010, and hydrodynamic modeling performed by the IBER two-dimensional computational model, which provided the floodwater levels that occurred for each locality. Then, with the use of the ArcMap program, we elaborated a risk map with flood spots for the recurrence periods of 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years, for two different scenarios. The areas identified with biggest problems in relation to floods are the areas located near the Paraíba River, where the riverine populations are inserted, mainly due to their vulnerability and disordered occupation. Key words: Hydrodynamic modeling, flood risk and risk map. 1. INTRODUCTION Thus, the map of flood risk areas is a relevant instrument in the prevention, control and management of floods. The occurrence of floods has intensified and become more frequent each year. Floods are a concern for many populations, as they cause disastrous impacts on affected 1.1 Motivation and goal areas, causing economic, social and environmental damage, and, in more critical cases, can lead to loss of human life. Ac- This work is motivated by the intense rains that occurred cording to Hora et Gomes (2009), 164,662,775 people were in the Paraíba and Mundaú river basins, located in the states affected by flood events around the world in 2007, causing of Pernambuco and Alagoas, in June 2010, which affected also the death of 8,382 individuals. 15 municipalities in Alagoas and 14 in Pernambuco, and left approximately 80,000 people homeless. Flooding events occur due to the natural river regime or are provoked and/or amplified by changes in the soil surfa- In the municipality of Quebrangulo, on the border of the ce of a river basin, mainly due to the urbanization process, states of Alagoas and Pernambuco, approximately 80% of which causes waterproofing and channeling of river surfaces the city was devastated by the flood of 20101 and about five (Tucci et Bertoni, 2003). thousand people lost their homes. According to the Fire De- partment, 60% of the residences were destroyed. The application of the GIS tool in the identification and diagnosis of risk areas has been widely explored in several Thus, the main objective of this study is to map the flood Brazilian cities and currently provides an important role risk areas in the urban area of the city of Quebrangulo, for in risk management, since we can elaborate maps from it, 1 http://gazetaweb.globo.com/noticia.php?c=207259&e=14, 04/ associating physical, environmental and social knowledge. mar/2015. PROPPI / LATEC DOI: 10.20985/1980-5160.2016.v11n3.1143 432 Electronic Journal of Management & System Volume 11, Number 4, 2016, pp. 431-443 DOI: 10.20985/1980-5160.2016.v11n4.1143 two different scenarios: with and without river dams/bar- 2.1.1 Flood risk mapping riers in the upstream of the municipality. In order to achieve the main goal of this work it is necessary that the following In their study, Hora et Gomes (2009) aimed to recognize specific objectives are conducted: and map the physical and environmental aspects of a sec- tion of the Cachoeira river, in Itabuna-BA, which includes • To evaluate and use, for the recurrence times of 5, the sub-clusters Bananeira, Rua Beira Rio and Jaçanã, due 10, 25, 50 and 100 years, the affluent hydrograms, to the analysis of these in the phenomenon of flooding and elaborated by the company COHIDRO, for the scena- emphasizing the definition of potential risk areas, drawing a rios with and without river dams; risk map with flood spots for different recurrence periods. • To determine population and housing densities; Guimarães et Penha (2009) used hydrodynamic models to determine the areas subject to flooding and, based on the • To characterize land Usage and Occupation; comparison with the mapping records of the city, mapped flood risk areas in the municipality of Muriaé-MG. • To determine the flood spots in the municipality for the recurrence periods of 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years Silva Junior (2010) provided tools in his study for the ma- for the scenarios with and without the dam. nagement and improvement of public government actions, after analyzing the flood risk in the city of Alenquer-PA. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW Sarlas (2010) had as the main goal of his study to elabo- rate flood spots for the urban area of Santa Rita do Sapucaí / MG, through the SPRING software. 2.1 Risk For the mapping of flood risk areas in Guaçuí-ES, Maga- The concept of risk may vary according to the context in lhães et al. (2011) had as goal the comparison between two which it is embedded. According to Zonensein (2007), the different methods through the use of geotechnologies. definition of a single concept for risk is not advisable, since an approach focused on distinct and specific perspectives Cunha et Pinto (2011) used the HEC-FDA software to map is complex. Thus, several areas of science and branches of and analyze the risks caused by flooding in the riverside area knowledge have used the concepts of risk as being social, of the city of Peso da Régua, in Portugal. environmental or economic. A flood risk assessment was made by Simõeset al. (2012), The term risk may be associated with vulnerability, sensi- which indicated vulnerability and susceptibility variables at tiveness, susceptibility or potential harm. In the engineering Avenida Cristiano Machado, in the city of Belo Horizonte / field, the risk is related both to the probability of an event MG. occurring and to the expectation of losses caused by it. Goerl et al. (2012) had as study goal to propose and apply According to the International Strategy for Disaster Re- a methodology for mapping flood risk areas in the study duction (ISDR), risk is the likelihood of harmful consequenc- area, which covered the municipality of Rio Negrinho, in es or expected losses (deaths, injuries, disrupted economic Santa Catarina. activities or environmental damage) resulting from interac- tions between natural or man-induced hazards and vulner- By cross-referencing hypsometry, declivity and land usage able conditions. and occupation information, Andrade et al. (2014) develo- ped a flood risk map for the urban area of the São Pedro As explained by CIRIA (2010), the United States Depart- creek basin, Uberlândia-MG. ment of Homeland Security (DHS) considers risk based on the threat, vulnerability and consequence of an event. 2.2 Maximum flows Risk=f(T,V,C) The project “Basic, Feasibility Studies and Master Plan Where T is the threat of an event with potential to cause of Works and Interventions for Mitigation of the Effects of harm (danger); V is vulnerability, that is, the level of suscep- Flooding on the Paraíba and Mundaú river basins – AL” of tibility to disturbance and C is the consequence, which can Hydrological Studies, prepared by Cohidro (2013), establish- be explained by the social, economic and environmental im- es the maximum flows referring to recurrence times of 5, 10, pacts of an event. 25, 50 and 100 years, as presented in Table 1 below. 433 Electronic Journal of Management & System Volume 11, Number 4, 2016, pp. 431-443 DOI: 10.20985/1980-5160.2016.v11n4.1143 Table 1. Maximum flows. 3.1.2 Case study Recurrence Flow (m³/s) The studied area is located on the Paraíba river basin, time (years) P1 P2 Quebrangulo in the municipality of Quebrangulo, located in the state of 5 143,8 71,5 188,0 Alagoas and bordering the state of Pernambuco. As already 10 181,3 108,5 237,0 mentioned, the study aims to evaluate the effects of a flood 25 228,7 160,4 299,0 in the urban area of the municipality, in the scenarios with 50 263,9 203,8 345,0 and without the P1 and P2 dams. Figure 2 below shows the 100 299,1 249,8 391,0 location of the proposed buses, the municipality of Que- Source: Cohidro (2013). brangulo and its urban area, which is downstream of P1 and P2. 3. METHODOLOGY 3.2 Land usage and occupation In this chapter, we discuss the methodology used to carry out flood risk mapping in the urban area of the city of Que- The identification of the main uses of the land, aiming brangulo, with the proposal of two dams (P1 and P2), both at the elaboration of a diagnosis of land usage in the study in the Paraíba river basin. area, was made through Google Earth Street View feature. Land uses were sorted by categories of residential use, 3.1 Paraíba river basin square parks and leisure area, transport routes, green areas and exposed soil, as observed in Figure 3. 3.1.1 General considerations The transport routes category was split in two subcatego- ries, as paved and dirt roads. The Paraíba river basin lies between the parallels 08º 44 ‘and 09º 39’ south latitude and between the 35º 45 ‘and 36º Squares and leisure areas are the places identified as the 45’ west longitude of the Greenwich meridians. It is limited leisure area of the population, as playgrounds for children to the north by the basin of the Ipanema River, to the south in general.
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