Tales of Two Societies: London and Paris 1860-1940
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Tales of Two Societies: London and Paris 1860-1940 John Aldrich University of Southampton Southampton UK Les 150 ans de la Société de Statistique de Paris: 24 September 2010 1885: Society at 50-ish, Société at 25 “same family” “same object” The object (and personnel) changed The original object was the accumulation of social facts. The people pursuing this object were numerically minded economists, politicians, public health experts, demographers, geographers, …--amateurs, enthusiasts. The modern subject is organised around probability and mathematical statistics. The personnel are specialist professionals. The family relationship changed In 1860 French and English statisticians observed a division of labour by concentrating on their national statistics They met in international congresses (and after 1885) in the Institut International de Statistique. The purpose was to standardise categories and measures. By 1940 there was a common project in mathematical statistics and correspondence on scientific matters and personal visits. What the original object was not-applied probability Some of the founding generation in London knew the work of Laplace Quetelet was god-father to the Society But the Society was not about applying probability. The object of the London Society 1834 (after 1884 the Royal Statistical Society) procuring, arranging and publishing `Facts calculated to illustrate the Condition and Prospects of Society.’ Four main classes of fact: economical statistics political statistics medical statistics moral & intellectual statistics. The object of the Paris Société 1860 as described by Michel Chevalier population & criminal statistics mentioned too. The object changed—papers in the JSSP but a similar pattern in London The Société and Society in the 19th century Société and Society were interested in information and recognised that information was best supplied by statisticians in that country. Both Journals carried information from, and about, abroad. In 19th century Britain France was the most interesting foreign country. The Société was the only foreign society that counted. The Society was always bigger than the Société and generally did things on a bigger scale. Contacts? Today the American Statistical Association has 18,000 members from 90 countries. In 1885 the Society had 860 members and the Société 490—they were like clubs. I have noticed only one foreign member (in London or Paris) in our period—Yves Guyot in London. The Society had Honorary Foreign Fellows. In 1838 France provided 2 of the 8 elected (6 other countries provided 1 each). France maintained this lead until after the Second World War. Reading? From the 70s both Journals published book reviews. In 1911 the JSSP published 20 reviews—3 German and 1 English title. The JRSS published 60 including 14 German 12 French 2 Dutch 1 Swedish and 1 Italian. From the 90s the JRSS published contents of journals including the JSSP. The Institut International de Statistique Important in the story of London and Paris for two reasons Main meeting place for British and French statisticians The founding in 1885 was a joint effort by London and Paris The first President was Rawson W. Rawson President of the SSL. One of the two Vice-Presidents was Emile Levasseur who had been President of the SSP. Rawson W. Rawson President of ISI 1885-99 A great enthusiast Born in 1812 Joined the Society in 1835 Career as a colonial civil servant On retirement in 1875 devoted himself to the Society and the Institute Published almost nothing. Emile Levasseur Vice-President of ISI 1885-1911 London’s most esteemed foreign statistician A great scholar Basically a geographer. Several articles translated and published in the London Journal. 1883: Review of the General Results of Demography Applied to Political Economy 1885 La Statistique graphique, Jubilee Volume 1885 Emigration in the Nineteenth Century 1887 The Tables of Mortality and Survivorship 1892 Area and Population 1892 The Russian Famine ISI first meeting Rome 1887 The mathematical turn The original projects of the societies and the Institute dominated their activities throughout our period. But there was the beginning of a mathematical turn in the 80s in London— Edgeworth was inspired by Laplace and Quetelet Then Lucien March appeared on the Paris scene in the 90s. F. Y. Edgeworth (1845-1926)—for 40 years publishes on the science of means Statistics defined1885 the arithmetical portion of Social Science the science of Means in general (including means of physical observations) the science of those Means which relate to social phenomena. Arthur Bowley (1869-1957) Joins the Society in 1895. Primarily an economic statistician. Edgeworth’s only follower in mathematical statistics. Great supporter of the Institute. Outside the Society—biometry and Karl Pearson (1857-1936) Professor of applied mathematics at University College London. Takes up statistical work in biology in 1892. Great empire builder— unlike Edgeworth—journals, courses, students,.. A string of his students join the Society—the most important, G. Udny Yule. In Paris: Lucien March (1859-1933) Head of the SGF from 1890. Active in the Société from 1897. Enthusiast for Pearson’s methods—method of moments and correlation Introduces Emile Borel to the Société. Paris 1909: another anniversary and a meeting of the ISI A section on methods and mathematical statistics (on March’s initiative) Papers by Edgeworth, Bowley and Yule from London. March and Borel from Paris Plus Lexis… No comparable meeting until after the Second World War. The Hague 1911: no mathematical statistics but such hats The Great War The JRSS obituary for Jacques Bertillon : The writer's most vivid recollection of Dr. Bertillon is of him in the large offices devoted to his work, where some hundreds of clerks were employed in the analysis of regimental losses. In Britain Individual statisticians contributed to the war effort— but not by doing mathematical statistics. The Statistical Society library was "of national service during the war by providing ready access to information urgently required by the Government in relation to questions of trade, population and finance in the belligerent and other countries." The 20s The War created demands from statisticians in Britain and France to reform official statistics but nothing happened. The Society was much less interested in the world abroad The Institute just about survived the War and first met again in 1923. March and Bowley were often together at the meetings discussing the same topics—mostly economic statistics. The 1930s—a further mathematical turn New institutions New men New relationships R. A. Fisher at Rothamsted Agricultural Station 1919-33 Ronald Fisher (1890- 1962) an applied mathematician who worked in biology and statistics Replaced Pearson as leader of the English statistical school Became Galton professor at University College when Pearson retired In Paris: Institut Henri Poincaré founded 1928 and the people Fisher interacted with Maurice Fréchet (1878-1977) an analyst interested in probability and statistics. Georges Darmois (1888- 1960) a differential geometer who worked on relativity theory before becoming a major force in statistics. Daniel Dugué (1912-1987) a mathematical statistics student of Darmois. Maurice Fréchet and Ronald Fisher—an extensive correspondence where Fréchet was always asking Fisher to explain himself… Fréchet’s campaign in the ISI against correlation: example of the statistics by committee Fréchet and Fisher find other matters of common interest Both had worked on the distribution of order statistics. Fréchet told Fisher of his visit to Russia and how Kolmogorov had pointed out that an equation Fisher had produced in a genetic context was known to physicists as “Fokker- Planck's equation.” In 1940 Fréchet and Fisher were writing about one letter a week—about statistical theory. Georges Darmois’s work in statistics Darmois began work on statistics in 1924. His sources were Scandinavian, Russian and English. Then in 1935 comes a contribution to Fisher’s theory of estimation Darmois’s doctoral students Daniel Dugué (1912-1987) Application des propriétés de la limite au sens du calcul des probabilités a l'étude de diverse questions d'estimation (1937) Gustave Malécot (1911-98) Théorie mathématique de l'hérédité mendelienne généralisée (1939) Dugué : 3 notes in the Comptes Rendus Dugué sends the notes to Fisher Dugué’s stay in London 1937/8 Fisher replies, “I am indeed glad that this interesting subject is now receiving such acute and careful analysis as that of your papers.” In December 1936 Fisher suggests that Dugué come to London as a Rockefeller fellow. Rockefeller also funded Georg Rasch, Cecil Craig and William Youden plus a unit to research the genetics of blood groups. Dugué arrived in September 1937. Fisher on Dugué (to Rockefeller) According to Fisher, D. is an excellent mathematician, a polite and very well-bred boy, who has apparently never seen a computing machine before and hesitates a little to dirty his hands with one. Dugué had never needed a calculator. The IHP established a statistical laboratory in 1937. Fisher visits Paris in May 1938: Darmois invites him to dinner Christmas 1938: Dugué to Fisher 1939-40 The IHP reorganised for war. Fisher’s laboratory evacuated from London but not given any war work Contacts continue rd November 3 1939 Fréchet from the IHP 1940 Darmois mobilised but appointed to the Anglo-French Scientific Mission The Darmois-Fisher letters mixed social and scientific matters Fisher was most interested in work on blood groups Postscript I: 1945. The principals had survived, intellectual institutions were being reconstructed … and another trip to Paris was in prospect Postscript II: 1955. A family gathering and a new object: Fisher watches Darmois plant a tree for the ISI.