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Assessing the Economic Consequences of Two Cannabis Policy Options Assessing the economic consequences of two cannabis policy options Marian Shanahan, BA (Hons), MA (Econ) A thesis submitted in accordance with the requirements for admission to the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Drug Policy Modelling Program National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre School of Public Health and Community Medicine Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia March 2011 ii DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed …………………………………………….............. Date …………………………………………….............. iii COPYRIGHT STATEMENT ‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in the whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral thesis only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to sue copyright material: where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.’ Signed ..................................................................................... Date ..................................................................................... AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format. Signed ..................................................................................... Date ..................................................................................... iv Abstract The research in this dissertation addresses the question of costs and benefits of two policy options for cannabis in the context of New South Wales, Australia. The first policy is the current one, where cannabis is illegal, although a cannabis cautioning program is available for the use or possession of a small amount of cannabis. In the second policy option, cannabis is a legal but a highly regulated good. As no legalised– regulated policy currently exists, as part of this research the policy framework was developed with the objective of minimising the harms associated with the use of cannabis and with the policy itself. The societal value and preferences for the policies were evaluated in two ways. First, through the use of a traditional cost benefit analysis (CBA) and secondly, with a discrete choice experiment (DCE). The CBA estimated important costs and benefits in monetary terms for each policy with the results presented as a net social benefit. The DCE assessed the preferences for different policies for cannabis among a representative sample of the population. Potential trade-offs between key outcomes including the prevalence of consumption, expenditures by the criminal justice system and health care systems related to cannabis were explored. The results from the CBA indicate there is no clear difference in the net social benefit between the two policy options, although there is a potential revenue gain for government in the legalised–regulated option. The results from the DCE reveal that compared to the current policy there is a moderate preference for legalisation of cannabis among a community sample and strong preference against the complete criminalisation of cannabis. The results also demonstrate the trade-offs between different harms and benefits as well as the interactions between personal characteristics and the policy preferences. The findings from this analysis of the costs and benefits of two cannabis policy options will start to redress some of the evidence gaps that arise when making public policy in this area. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to acknowledge all of those who came before me in the cannabis policy debate. I have learned much from the many passionate and articulate arguments made by both sides. I also would like to thank those who completed the many surveys on which this work was built. This work would not have been possible without the funding from an ARC Discovery Grant and the Colonial Foundation Trust, and I am grateful for their financial support. Throughout this endeavour many people have supported me, both at work and personally. To my friends and colleagues in DPMP and at NDARC who have listened, and provided much advice along the way, I thank you. I would especially like to acknowledge Annie Bleeker who provided a considered and enthusiastic introduction into the world of cannabis both in Australia and in the Netherlands. To the other community of people in my life, I could not have done it without you – you listened, debated, provided encouragement and stepped up when needed, often without being asked. I definitely could not have completed this work without all your support. Thanks to my supervisors Alison Ritter, Glenn Salkeld and Karen Gerard for your insights, support, encouragement and guidance, but in particular I would like to thank Alison for making this thesis possible and for providing an enthusiastic and supportive environment in which to work. I would like to dedicate this thesis to my father. He did not get to see the end product but he was always interested in the ‘project’ and he widely shared his pride. Last but not least, I want to acknowledge my husband Paul’s love and support. I could not have done it without you. I love you. vi Contents Declaration of originality............................................................................................iii Copyright Statement .................................................................................................... iv Abstract ....................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgement ......................................................................................................vi Contents .....................................................................................................................vii List of tables ...............................................................................................................xii List of figures ..............................................................................................................xv List of abbreviations .................................................................................................xvi Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Policy alternatives ...................................................................................... 9 2.1 International Conventions ......................................................................................... 9 2.2 Possible cannabis policy options ............................................................................. 11 2.3 An overview of existing cannabis laws ................................................................... 19 2.4 Selecting policies for comparison ........................................................................... 25 2.5 Summary ................................................................................................................. 27 Chapter 3: Economic theory and its application in this thesis ............................... 28 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 28 3.2 Existing literature on economic evaluations of cannabis policies .......................... 29 3.3 Various methods for evaluating the societal impact of policy changes .................. 32 3.4 Cost benefit analysis: an overview .......................................................................... 35 3.4.1 .. Decision rules of a CBA ........................................................................................... 37 3.4.2 .. Methods of valuing benefits ...................................................................................... 38 3.4.3 .. Steps in a CBA .......................................................................................................... 42 3.5 Summary ................................................................................................................. 50 vii Chapter 4: Cannabis: rates
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