Building Transit Demand In With Regional Rail

Jonathan English Columbia University [email protected] Twitter: @EnglishRail Outline

* The Present: How Toronto succeeds and how the GTA lost its way

* The Past: How Toronto became a model transit city

* The Future: How Toronto can become a transit region once again Toronto Transit Today

* TTC ridership flat since 2014

* Far lower ridership in ‘905’ than in ‘416’

* Overcrowding and reliability issues

* High costs and long waits for big capital projects In Perspective

Unlinked Annual Riders per Capita, 2014 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Toronto New York Chicago Los San Dallas Houston Pittsburgh Detroit (TTC) (NYCTA) (CTA) Angeles Francisco (DART) (Metro) (Port (DDOT) (LACMTA) (MUNI) Authority) Ridership per Capita History

350 Mass Auto Ownership & Suburbanization Take Off Metropolitan Toronto Formed 300

250 Major Expansion of Transit Begins in Suburban Metro Toronto 200

150 Major Transit Outer Toronto Suburbs Service Cuts Become Dominant 100

50

0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Greater Toronto US National Average Expanding and Innovative High Transit Usage Rates, Even in the Suburbs

Toronto Inner Etobicoke North York Scarborough City Transit Mode Share (2011)

24 Hour Period 29% 18% 23% 22% AM Peak 33% 22% 27% 25% (6-9 A.M.) In the AM peak, transit carries…

OVER59%29%17% 60% OF OFOF TRIPSOF TRIPSTRIPS TRIPS TOTOTOTO SCARBOROUGH NORTH CENTRALYORK UNIVERSITY YORK TORONTO CENTRE CENTRE Is suburban transit service viable? What kind of service should an area like this receive? Finch West

36 Finch West streetcar Weekday Daily 44,000 43,500 Boardings Cost per Rider $1.79 $2.46 (2012) Vehicles on Route 39 34 (peak) Frequency Better than every 10 minutes until 1am Span of Service 24/7

• Good service with good fare recovery is possible in the suburbs • The problem is the chicken and the egg Three Approaches to Suburban Transit

* San Francisco BART: 366,200 riders per day, 2,192 daily riders per km.

* Washington Metro: 950,300 riders per day, 5,554 daily riders per km.

* and RT: 1,176,000 riders per day, 16,800 daily riders per km. Two Subway Stations

Bethesda York Mills Washington Metro station Toronto subway station 18,564 riders per day 27,260 riders per day What makes subway and bus integration successful? In-Station Connectivity Free Transfers Frequent Buses

Next bus… 47 minutes 92 minutes 133 minutes What went wrong in the ‘905’?

Service Drives Demand One of these has express and local bus 24 hours, better than every 10 mins to 2am. The other has a route often worse than hourly, ending at 7:30pm with no Sunday service. A ‘905’ Bus Schedule Quantitative Analysis

* 239 census tracts selected in a band on either side of Toronto-York municipal boundary * Areas of roughly equal size * Both predominantly suburban, postwar * Include large areas of single- family homes as well as employment areas and some towers * Both have high percentage new Canadians * Both areas predominantly middle class, though York side somewhat more affluent Quantitative Analysis

* Controlling for both density and income, there is a statistically significant, positive relationship between being located in the TTC service area and the transit mode share. The Brampton Case Brampton vs York Service

1.8 1.6 1.4

/Capita 1.2 1 0.8

Kilometres 0.6 0.4

Vehicle Vehicle 0.2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 York Brampton Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton vs York Ridership

40 35 30 25 20 15 Riders/Capita 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Brampton York

Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton Ridership vs Service

40 1.8 1.7 35 1.6 30 1.5 1.4 25 1.3 Riders/Capita 1.2 20 1.1 Hours/Capita Vehicle 15 1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita

Source: CUTA Fact Book YRT Ridership vs Service

25 1.2 1.1 20 1 15 0.9 0.8 10 0.7 Riders/Capita 0.6

5 Hours/Capita Vehicle 0.5 0 0.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton Fare Recovery Ratio

60% 1.8 1.6 50% 1.4 40% 1.2 1 30% Cost 0.8 20% 0.6

0.4 Hours/Capita Vehicle 10% 0.2 Operating Rev as % of Operating Operating of % as Rev Operating 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita

Source: CUTA Fact Book Effect of Service Increase

Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood, 2011 to 2015 Change in Trips per Day Change in Ridership 177%

54%

18% 0%

Saturday Sunday Timing the Effect

Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood Sundays, 2011 to 2015 1800 60 1600 50 1400 1200 40 1000 30

800 Trips Riders 600 20 400 10 200 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ridership 583 916 1404 1453 1614 Trips per Day 35 54 54 54 54 Effect of Service Reductions

Route 3 Thornhill January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 44 to 36 Weekday Trips) Route Ridership Change Overall Ridership Change in Municipality

-0.5%

-14.1% Effect of Service Reductions

Route 7 Martin Grove January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 29 to 27 Weekday Trips, Elimination of Saturday Clockface Schedule) Route Ridership Change Overall Ridership Change in Municipality

1.3%

-8.9% Effects of Service Changes

* Only three metro areas had ridership growth last year

* What sets the three apart?

* Service improvements When it comes to transit…

If you build it, they might come If you don’t, they definitely won’t Coverage

Connectivity Fair Fares

Great Transit

Speed Span

Frequency Coverage

* If transit can’t get you everywhere you need to go, people that can afford it will buy a car

* Many jobs are in low-density areas

* Suburbanization of poverty

* Routes in low-density areas can be successful if they have good service Frequency

* Riders will not look at a timetable if buses run every 12 minutes or better

* Techniques like pulse can be used where high frequency is not possible Span

* Do bars and restaurants close at 7 pm?

* Are all jobs 9 to 5?

* Do people not leave the house on Sundays?

* If service isn’t available whenever people want to travel, they won’t ride during peak periods either. Connectivity

* Passengers must be able to connect between modes conveniently and without extra charge

* A transfer is an inconvenience—you shouldn’t have to pay more for it!

* Bus routes should be designed to connect for cross- suburban trips Speed Fair Fares

Yonge at Highway 7, Richmond Hill Yonge at Sheppard, Toronto to to Yonge at Sheppard, Toronto Yonge at Queen, Toronto Distance 9.1 km 12.5 km Fare $6.63 $3.00 Fare per $0.73 $0.24 kilometre How did we get here? Who said it?

“It is the experience of every large city in America that a succession of new expressways is not the answer to efficient and economical movement of traffic. Each successive one is filled the day it is opened. The irresistible fact is that you simply cannot provide sufficient highways and parking space to accommodate every person who desires to drive his motor vehicle downtown and back each day … additional is the only answer.” The driver cannot be “derricked” out of his car. He has to be persuaded to take transit by “a more convenient and more economical mode of travel with rapid and regular service.” Fred “Big Daddy” Gardiner 1956

Photo source: Toronto Public Library What happened?

* Like elsewhere, ridership declined in the 1950s despite the new subway. * In 1961, zone fares were reduced from 5 to 2 zones and then ridership started to climb * September 1, 1963, a huge expansion of service to the suburbs, creating basic grid of suburban service * In 1973, zone fares eliminated with provincial support 1963 Service Expansion

Source: 1963 TTC Annual Report What made Toronto different?

* Suburbs were in TTC service area thanks to Metro

* Suburbs demanded equal service, rather than demanding their tax dollars not be used for transit

* Suburbs used their political clout to overcome objections and secure provincial funding

* Suburban ridership base made transit an issue of provincial and even national concern, which wouldn’t be the case if it were just the old City of Toronto that rode transit The Future Regional Rail What is regional rail?

* Turn-up-and-go frequency (every 15 minutes or better)

* Fares and schedules integrated with local transit

* Smaller, electrified trains with rapid acceleration meaning more local stops with no additional journey time The Advantages

* As fast and high-capacity as a subway, but much cheaper to build because the tracks are already there

* If most people are arriving by bus, it doesn’t matter what is immediately around the station Regional Rail in Europe Munich Regional Rail in Asia Tokyo Regional Rail in Australia Sydney Current Plans

* is currently planning to upgrade GO service as part of the Regional Express Rail program (RER)

* Long-term plans for electric trains running every 15 minutes or better, all day and in both directions on Lakeshore, Kitchener, Barrie, and Stouffville lines The Possibilities

A rapid transit backbone for the entire region What about Union Station?

* Union Station’s track layout dates to 1927, complete with mail platforms

* Plenty of space for it to be modernized Platforms

Toronto Union Station Berlin Hauptbahnhof S-Bahn

Image Source: Canadian Press Image Source: Martin Falbisoner Union Station

* Union handles 187,000 riders per day on 16 tracks * Paris’ Châtelet-Les Halles moves 493,000 on 6 tracks * Tokyo’s Shinjuku moves 1.5 million on 14 tracks

* Paris RER A moves 300 million per year on two tracks * GO train and bus combined: 68.8 million per year Conclusion

* Metro Toronto build a transit city that was a model for North America * It did it by providing good service to new suburbs, and good ridership followed * This approach was not extended to the 905, which has a much more American pattern of transit service and ridership * Regional Rail can be a catalyst for extending the transit service level and ridership enjoyed by the City of Toronto to the entire region Thank you Questions?

Jonathan English Columbia University [email protected] Twitter: @EnglishRail