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Retail Market Feasibility Analysis Illinois Route 31 and Rakow Road Lake in the Hills, Illinois

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Retail Market Feasibility Analysis Illinois Route 31 and Rakow Road Lake in the Hills, Illinois RETAIL MARKET FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS ILLINOIS ROUTE 31 AND RAKOW ROAD LAKE IN THE HILLS, ILLINOIS Prepared For: VILLAGE OF LAKE IN THE HILLS LAKE IN THE HILLS, ILLINOIS JUNE, 2015 Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 1 SECTION I ASSIGNMENT Our assignment has been to undertake a Retail Market Feasibility Study of the properties located in the southwest and southeast quadrant of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road in the Village of Lake in the Hills, Illinois to determine the market potential for auto dealers and retail stores. This study includes the type of retail development that the market will successfully support, the types of retailers best suited for the development, the types of stores that can be supported; and specific retailers or auto dealers for which there is a market. Figure1.A presents the Chicago Metropolitan Area Map which depicts the location of the Subject Properties. Figure 1.B presents the site plan depicting the overall layout and ingress and egress for the Subject Sites A, B, and C. STUDY OBJECTIVES The specific study objectives were as follows: Retail market feasibility requires an analysis of the strength of the present and future market and a determination of the types of retail space that the market will support. A discussion of the tasks necessary to determine the future strategy for the Subject Sites is as follows: 1. Changing Retail Trends Retailing is constantly changing. Today’s emphasis is on brand name, convenience, and value. We have explored the changes taking place in retailing and the likely changes that can be anticipated in the future. We have also interpreted what the changes mean to Lake in the Hills. We have investigated the future of the Lake in the Hills Sites both as a part of the Chicago Metropolitan Area and as an individual market. Data analyzed included: likely population growth, age structure, household size, major nearby employers, retail sales, housing development, highway patterns, generative attractions, and other pertinent information. We have also reviewed Lake in the Hills retail occupancy and vacancy in contrast to other surrounding community’s retail concentrations. 2. Current and Past Situation We have reviewed the Subject Sites past and current situation to determine past actions and potential future actions to accelerate development of the Subject Sites. 3. Driving Time Analysis We conducted driving times from the Subject Sites for 5, 10, 15, and 20 minutes during non- peak traffic periods to simulate what consumers either now experience or will experience in the future. It also assisted us in delineating the trade area. -1- Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 2 Trade Area Delineation The trade area of the Subject Sites was delineated based upon existing and proposed competition, road patterns, shopping orientation, demographics, a driving time analysis, Lake in the Hills retail sales changes, and other pertinent factors. The trade area was divided into Primary and Secondary portions. The Primary Trade Area represents the area from which the most frequent shoppers originate, while the Secondary Trade Area represents the residential areas from which the infrequent shoppers originate. Naturally, trade areas vary by types of stores. Auto and truck dealers draw from a wider trade area. 5. Demographics We assembled and analyzed the demographic data for the trade area. The demographic characteristics identified the level of market support available within the delineated trade area. Age and income are the most sensitive items affecting retail stores. Thus, we have thoroughly evaluated the changes in income, age, population, and household characteristics for 2014, 2019, and 2024. We utilized our demographic data-mapping program that permits us to evaluate demographics in multiple ways. 6. Competition We reviewed our inventory of all shopping centers over 50,000 square feet and all freestanding major supermarkets, drug stores and big box retailers in the trade area. We will review competitive centers or retailers, retailer names, location, size, major anchors, anchor sizes, performance, and other pertinent data. We have isolated nearby competition and analyzed their directional attraction and general performance, as it affects the Subject Sites. 7. Accessibility We have gathered data regarding the existing street road network and any changes, both short- and long-range, that may be planned. We have obtained and evaluated traffic counts and traffic flow, identified any congestion problems, and determined what might be done to alleviate any problems identified. 8. Personal Consumption Expenditures Personal Consumption Expenditures are dollars available for the purchase of goods and services for which Lake in the Hills competes. They are an admixture of various types of retail categories such as food, drugs, hardware, liquor, general merchandise, apparel, accessories, shoes, furniture, electronics, auto supplies, services, and numerous other type of stores. We computed Personal Consumption Expenditures for the Subject Site’s trade area and forecast them to 2014, 2019, and 2024. The data served as a basis for assessing alternative development scenarios and the extent of the market to support them. -2- Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 3 9. Market Penetration The retail consumption dollars available in both the Primary and Secondary Trade Area were determined to estimate the Subject’s Sites likely market penetration and the market penetration for individual retail categories. Based upon this analysis, we have identified retail categories that represent an opportunity and the types of retailers which can likely fill the void. Additionally, market penetration provides an indication of the strength and weakness of various types of stores. 10. Alternative Development Scenarios Alternative development scenarios were analyzed. 11. Recommendations We have recommended the market potential for the Subject Sites after a thorough analysis of the data. We have recommended the following: A. The retailers, car dealers, truck dealers and others best suited to meet market demand in the Trade Area. B. The timing, placement, square footage required, and parking needs for development of the Subject Sites. -3- Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 4 SECTION II CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The conclusions and recommendations developed during the course of this analysis are as follows: GENERAL FINDINGS The Subject Sites The Subject Sites A, B and C are located in the southwest and southeast quadrant of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road. Site A contains approximately 22.3 acres, Site B contains 64.8 acres and Site C contains 77.3 acres of commercially zoned property. Population McHenry County experienced the largest percentage increase in population between 1990 and 2000 however, from a much lower population base. Between 1990 and 2000, McHenry County’s population increased by over 76,800 persons representing an increase of 41.9 percent. McHenry County’s growth slowed between 2000 and 2010 to 15.8 percent with an absolute increase of 48,683 persons. The Village of Lake in the Hills is located in McHenry County. Lake in the Hill population increased from 5,866 persons in 1990 to 23,152 persons in 2000 representing an increase of 294.7 percent. By 2010, the population in Lake in the Hills increased by 25.1 percent to 28,965 persons. Lake County's population growth between 1990 and 2000 amounted to 24.8 percent with an absolute increase of 127,938 persons. Between 2000 and 2010, Lake County’s population increased by 59,106 persons an increase of 8.4 percent. Kane County’s population growth was second only to Will County between 2000 and 2010. Kane County’s population increased by 111,150 persons or by 21.6 percent. This followed population growth of 27.3 percent between 1990 and 2000. Will County’s population witnessed the most significant population growth between 2000 and 2010 within the six-county region. The population in Will County increased by 175,294 persons or by 25.9 percent between 2000 and 2010. This follows population growth of over 40.6 percent between 1990 and 2000. -4- Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 5 The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) prepared population forecasts for the Chicago Metropolitan Area for 2040. McHenry County is forecast to grow from 307,113 persons in 2010 to 527,353 persons by 2040. The number of households in McHenry County is expected to increase from 109,199 households in 2010 to 184,253 households in 2040. Lake County is forecast to grow from 703,462 persons in 2010 to 953,673 persons by 2040. The number of households in Lake County is expected to increase from 241,712 households in 2010 to 326,763 households in 2040. Accessibility The Subject Sites are located at the confluence of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road Lake in the Hills enjoys good north-south and east-west accessibility. Interstate 90, located approximately 17 minutes driving time south from Lake in the Hills, is a major north-south interstate serving the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Interstate 90, part of the U.S. Interstate System, is a six-lane, limited access, divided highway, with a 55 mile per hour speed limit at Illinois Route 31. A full four-way interchange with Interstate 90 is provided at IL Route 31. IL Route 31 is a major north-south arterial which extends from Aurora on the south to U.S. Route 12 on the north. Lake in the Hills is located approximately 36 miles northwest of O'Hare International Airport. Lake in the Hills has been known primarily as a bed-room community with low-density, single-family residential developments and industrial and commercials uses.
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