RETAIL MARKET FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS ILLINOIS ROUTE 31 AND RAKOW ROAD LAKE IN THE HILLS, ILLINOIS
Prepared For:
VILLAGE OF LAKE IN THE HILLS LAKE IN THE HILLS, ILLINOIS JUNE, 2015
Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 1
SECTION I
ASSIGNMENT
Our assignment has been to undertake a Retail Market Feasibility Study of the properties located in the southwest and southeast quadrant of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road in the Village of Lake in the Hills, Illinois to determine the market potential for auto dealers and retail stores. This study includes the type of retail development that the market will successfully support, the types of retailers best suited for the development, the types of stores that can be supported; and specific retailers or auto dealers for which there is a market. Figure1.A presents the Chicago Metropolitan Area Map which depicts the location of the Subject Properties. Figure 1.B presents the site plan depicting the overall layout and ingress and egress for the Subject Sites A, B, and C.
STUDY OBJECTIVES
The specific study objectives were as follows:
Retail market feasibility requires an analysis of the strength of the present and future market and a determination of the types of retail space that the market will support. A discussion of the tasks necessary to determine the future strategy for the Subject Sites is as follows:
1. Changing Retail Trends
Retailing is constantly changing. Today’s emphasis is on brand name, convenience, and value. We have explored the changes taking place in retailing and the likely changes that can be anticipated in the future. We have also interpreted what the changes mean to Lake in the Hills.
We have investigated the future of the Lake in the Hills Sites both as a part of the Chicago Metropolitan Area and as an individual market. Data analyzed included: likely population growth, age structure, household size, major nearby employers, retail sales, housing development, highway patterns, generative attractions, and other pertinent information. We have also reviewed Lake in the Hills retail occupancy and vacancy in contrast to other surrounding community’s retail concentrations.
2. Current and Past Situation
We have reviewed the Subject Sites past and current situation to determine past actions and potential future actions to accelerate development of the Subject Sites.
3. Driving Time Analysis
We conducted driving times from the Subject Sites for 5, 10, 15, and 20 minutes during non- peak traffic periods to simulate what consumers either now experience or will experience in the future. It also assisted us in delineating the trade area.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 2
Trade Area Delineation
The trade area of the Subject Sites was delineated based upon existing and proposed competition, road patterns, shopping orientation, demographics, a driving time analysis, Lake in the Hills retail sales changes, and other pertinent factors.
The trade area was divided into Primary and Secondary portions. The Primary Trade Area represents the area from which the most frequent shoppers originate, while the Secondary Trade Area represents the residential areas from which the infrequent shoppers originate. Naturally, trade areas vary by types of stores. Auto and truck dealers draw from a wider trade area.
5. Demographics
We assembled and analyzed the demographic data for the trade area. The demographic characteristics identified the level of market support available within the delineated trade area. Age and income are the most sensitive items affecting retail stores. Thus, we have thoroughly evaluated the changes in income, age, population, and household characteristics for 2014, 2019, and 2024. We utilized our demographic data-mapping program that permits us to evaluate demographics in multiple ways.
6. Competition
We reviewed our inventory of all shopping centers over 50,000 square feet and all freestanding major supermarkets, drug stores and big box retailers in the trade area. We will review competitive centers or retailers, retailer names, location, size, major anchors, anchor sizes, performance, and other pertinent data. We have isolated nearby competition and analyzed their directional attraction and general performance, as it affects the Subject Sites.
7. Accessibility
We have gathered data regarding the existing street road network and any changes, both short- and long-range, that may be planned. We have obtained and evaluated traffic counts and traffic flow, identified any congestion problems, and determined what might be done to alleviate any problems identified.
8. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Personal Consumption Expenditures are dollars available for the purchase of goods and services for which Lake in the Hills competes. They are an admixture of various types of retail categories such as food, drugs, hardware, liquor, general merchandise, apparel, accessories, shoes, furniture, electronics, auto supplies, services, and numerous other type of stores. We computed Personal Consumption Expenditures for the Subject Site’s trade area and forecast them to 2014, 2019, and 2024. The data served as a basis for assessing alternative development scenarios and the extent of the market to support them.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 3
9. Market Penetration
The retail consumption dollars available in both the Primary and Secondary Trade Area were determined to estimate the Subject’s Sites likely market penetration and the market penetration for individual retail categories. Based upon this analysis, we have identified retail categories that represent an opportunity and the types of retailers which can likely fill the void. Additionally, market penetration provides an indication of the strength and weakness of various types of stores.
10. Alternative Development Scenarios
Alternative development scenarios were analyzed.
11. Recommendations
We have recommended the market potential for the Subject Sites after a thorough analysis of the data. We have recommended the following:
A. The retailers, car dealers, truck dealers and others best suited to meet market demand in the Trade Area.
B. The timing, placement, square footage required, and parking needs for development of the Subject Sites.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 4
SECTION II
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The conclusions and recommendations developed during the course of this analysis are as follows:
GENERAL FINDINGS
The Subject Sites
The Subject Sites A, B and C are located in the southwest and southeast quadrant of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road. Site A contains approximately 22.3 acres, Site B contains 64.8 acres and Site C contains 77.3 acres of commercially zoned property.
Population
McHenry County experienced the largest percentage increase in population between 1990 and 2000 however, from a much lower population base. Between 1990 and 2000, McHenry County’s population increased by over 76,800 persons representing an increase of 41.9 percent. McHenry County’s growth slowed between 2000 and 2010 to 15.8 percent with an absolute increase of 48,683 persons. The Village of Lake in the Hills is located in McHenry County.
Lake in the Hill population increased from 5,866 persons in 1990 to 23,152 persons in 2000 representing an increase of 294.7 percent. By 2010, the population in Lake in the Hills increased by 25.1 percent to 28,965 persons.
Lake County's population growth between 1990 and 2000 amounted to 24.8 percent with an absolute increase of 127,938 persons. Between 2000 and 2010, Lake County’s population increased by 59,106 persons an increase of 8.4 percent.
Kane County’s population growth was second only to Will County between 2000 and 2010. Kane County’s population increased by 111,150 persons or by 21.6 percent. This followed population growth of 27.3 percent between 1990 and 2000. Will County’s population witnessed the most significant population growth between 2000 and 2010 within the six-county region. The population in Will County increased by 175,294 persons or by 25.9 percent between 2000 and 2010. This follows population growth of over 40.6 percent between 1990 and 2000.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 5
The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) prepared population forecasts for the Chicago Metropolitan Area for 2040. McHenry County is forecast to grow from 307,113 persons in 2010 to 527,353 persons by 2040. The number of households in McHenry County is expected to increase from 109,199 households in 2010 to 184,253 households in 2040.
Lake County is forecast to grow from 703,462 persons in 2010 to 953,673 persons by 2040. The number of households in Lake County is expected to increase from 241,712 households in 2010 to 326,763 households in 2040.
Accessibility
The Subject Sites are located at the confluence of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road Lake in the Hills enjoys good north-south and east-west accessibility. Interstate 90, located approximately 17 minutes driving time south from Lake in the Hills, is a major north-south interstate serving the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Interstate 90, part of the U.S. Interstate System, is a six-lane, limited access, divided highway, with a 55 mile per hour speed limit at Illinois Route 31. A full four-way interchange with Interstate 90 is provided at IL Route 31. IL Route 31 is a major north-south arterial which extends from Aurora on the south to U.S. Route 12 on the north.
Lake in the Hills is located approximately 36 miles northwest of O'Hare International Airport. Lake in the Hills has been known primarily as a bed-room community with low-density, single-family residential developments and industrial and commercials uses.
Planned and Proposed Roadway Improvements
Roadway improvements and widening are planned on IL Route 31 between IL Route 176 and IL Route 120. IL Route 31 is currently undergoing improvements in proximity to the Subject Sites with intersection improvements, signalization and widening. The Route 31 bypass and widening is also planned which will improve overall accessibility to the Subject Sites. There will be future east west access points along IL Route 31 in proximity to Site C. There are also improvements planned for Rakow Road to Randall Road which will enhance access and driving times.
Visibility
The Subject Sites at the southwest corner of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road offers excellent visibility. Monument signage at the major access points would allow for excellent visibility and exposure. The commercial sites in the Village along Route 31 provide good visibility for retail, restaurants, auto dealers, gas stations, and other commercial uses. They would also enjoy excellent exposure along this major north-south arterial in consumers regular patterns to Wal-Mart.
Surrounding Area McHenry County is known for its many lakes, recreational areas, equestrian estates, executive homes, farms, shopping and manufacturing. Some of the area's generative attractions include: the
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Illinois Railway Museum, The Volo Auto Museum, San Fillippo Estate, Stade’s Farm & Market, Raue Center for the Arts, and the McHenry County Historical Society, among many others.
Major Employers The Top 15 largest employers in McHenry County are provided below in Table 1.1. McHenry County’s employment is concentrated in health care, government, retail trade and manufacturing. The most significant employment sector in McHenry County is manufacturing. Manufacturing is the county’s largest employment segment. Table 2.1 Major Employers in McHenry County
Top 15 Largest Employers Nature of Business # Employees
Centegra Health System Healthcare/hospital 3650 http://www.centegra.org/
District 158 Consolidated School District 158 serves 1500 http://www.district158.org/ 9,300 students in Pre-K through grade 12.
McHenry County County Government 1400 http://www.co.mchenry.il.us/
Follett Library Resources, Inc. Wholesale library & classroom books 1378 http://www.follett.com/
Follett Software Co. Education, Software, Solutions http://www.fsc.follett.com/
Catalent Pharma Solutions Blow-fill-seal, sterile manufacturing, and 830 http://www.catalent.com/ packaging services
Mercy Health System Integrated health care delivery system 732 http://www.mercyhealthsystem.org/
Snap-On Tools Co. Distribution customer service and repair 590 http://www.snapon.com/ centers
Sage Products, Inc. Manufacturer of interventional patient 583 http://www.sageproducts.com/ hygiene products
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 7
Top 15 Largest Employers Nature of Business # Employees
Medela Healthcare/breast pumps 540 http://www.medela.us/
McHenry County College Educational Institution 500 http://www.mchenry.edu/
Knaack Manufacturing Co. Manufacturer of jobsite, truck, and van tool 500 http://www.knaack.com/ storage equipment
InTren Underground and overhead utility 490 http://www.intren.com/ contractor
Aptar Group, Inc. Designer and Manufacturer of consumer 475 http://www.aptargroup.com/ dispensing systems http://www.seaquistperfect.com/
Charter Dura-Bar Manufacturer of continuous cast iron bar 290 http://www.charterdura-bar.com/ Some of the major employers and their employment in Lake in the Hills include Costco (150), Boulder Ridge Country Club (120), Lowe’s (105), Electronic Conduit Construction (100) and Moretti’s Ristorante and Pizzeria (75). Many of the manufacturing facilities in Lake in the Hills are concentrated in proximity to the Lake in the Hills Airport at Pyott and Imhoff roads. There is also a concentration of manufacturers in proximity to the Subject Sites at Illinois Route 31 and Virginia Road.
Residential Building Permit Activity Residential development in McHenry County is beginning to incrementally rebound. Building permits in 2006 amounted to 2,463 permits. In 2010, permits dropped to only 195 in McHenry County. In 2014, building permits amounted to 519 permits comprised of 366 single-unit permits and 153 multi-family units. Building permit activity in Lake in the Hills has ranged from three units in 2010 to 105 units in 2011. In 2014, there were 62 residential building permits in Lake in the Hills. Table 2.2 presents residential building permit activity in McHenry County and Lake in the Hills between 2006 and 2014.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 8
Table 2.2 Residential Building Permit Activity McHenry County and Lake in the Hills 2006-2014
McHenry County I Unit 2 Units 3-4 Units 5 Units Total Valuation 2014 366 2 32 119 519 $88,137,000 2013 339 0 12 0 351 $54,965,896 2012 195 0 0 408 603 $73,883,804 2011 226 0 0 104 330 $47,713,254 2010 195 0 0 0 195 $32,506,865 2009 180 2 0 22 204 $32,337,419 2008 419 2 36 119 576 $99,417,989 2007 1,515 14 72 36 1,637 $284,412,017 2006 2,218 52 60 133 2,463 $432,842,724 Lake in the Hills I Unit 2 Units 3-4 Units 5 Units Total Valuation 2014 6 0 0 56 62 $8,698,000 2013 18 0 0 0 18 $4,982,000 2012 4 0 0 0 4 $905,953 2011 13 0 0 92 105 $12,546,526 2010 3 0 0 0 3 $672,463 2009 9 0 0 0 9 $1,831,666 2008 16 0 0 0 16 $3,103,811 2007 36 0 0 0 36 $6,918,453 2006 77 0 0 0 77 $16,540,932 Source: United States Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census
The Village of Lake in the Hills is an underserved retail market. Retail market demand is growing based upon the increasing population resources, residential building permits, road network, employment distribution, competitive alignment and rising overall traffic counts. The intersection of IL Route 31 and US Route 14 offers total combined traffic counts of over 58,000 vehicles per day.
Traffic Volumes
Annual average daily traffic volume data was obtained from the Illinois Department of Transportation for selected arterials in proximity to the Subject Sites. Table 2.3 presents the 2011 average daily traffic volumes (the latest published data available) for the selected arterials in proximity to the Subject Sites. Figure 2.A presents the Annual Average Daily Traffic Count Map.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 9
Table 2.3 Annual Average Daily Automobile Traffic Volumes Selected Arterials 2011
Selected Arterials Traffic Count
IL Route 31 North of U.S. Route 14 27,400 vehicles South of U.S. Route 14 30,900 vehicles
U.S. Route 14 East of IL Route 31 24,400 vehicles West of IL Route 31 27,400 vehicles Source: Illinois Department of Transportation, Average Daily Traffic Counts, 2011
The Illinois Department of Transportation shared some traffic count data with Village of Lake in the Hills which indicates from Monday, April 26, 2011 to Sunday May 1, 2011 that Illinois Route 31 had a 24 hour total of 32,933 vehicles per day.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 10
Figure 2.A
Annual Average Daily Traffic Counts
Source: Illinois Department of Transportation 2011 Annual Average Daily Traffic Counts
Driving Time Analysis
Our normal procedure is to conduct a detailed Driving Time Analysis from the Subject Sites in all directions for 20 minutes at 5-minute intervals during normal shopping times. The Driving Time
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 11
Analysis assists in the delineation of the Trade Area by simulating the distances a consumer can travel during given time allocations. In order to assess driving times, our staff conducted driving times as indicated. We also simulated driving times using several computer programs. Following a review of all of the results, we defined logical driving times in normal shopping traffic. Figure 2.B depicts 10, 15, and 20 minute driving times.
Figure 2.B Driving Time Analysis 10, 15, & 20 Minutes IL Route 31 and Rakow Road Village of Lake in the Hills, Illinois May 2015
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 12
The driving times are undertaken to determine the distances that consumers can drive during normal shopping hours in relation to the Lake in the Hills retail market and other major significant retail concentrations.
Table 2.4 Driving Time Analysis 5, 10, 15, & 20 Minutes IL Route 31 and Trinity Drive Village of Lake in the Hills, Illinois May 2015
IL Route 31 - Traveling North 5 minute interval - Crystal Lake Avenue 10 minute interval - Gracy Road 15 minute interval - Park Place 20 minute interval - McCullom Lake Road
IL Route 31 - Traveling South 5 minute interval - Lundstrom Lane 10 minute interval - Hillside Street 15 minute Interval - Boncocky Road 20 minute Interval - Kimball Street
US Route 14- Traveling East 5 minute interval - Three Lakes Road and Route 14 10 minute interval - East Main Street 15 minute interval - Plum Tree Road 20 minute interval - IL Route 59
US Route 14 - Traveling West 5 minute interval - Cog Road 10 minute interval - Teckler Road 15 minute interval - Woodstock Street 20 minute interval - Ridgefield Road Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. – May, 2015
The driving time analysis indicates the 20 minute interval is roughly bounded by McCullom Lake Road in McHenry on the north, Kimball Street in Elgin on the south, IL Route 59 on the east and Ridgefield Road on the west.
Naturally, there will be variations in driving times because of traffic, traffic signals, truck traffic, accidents, barriers, snow, construction and other traffic impediments. During peak periods, the driving times can climb significantly. Our staff traveled during non-peak traffic periods.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 13
Trade Area Delineation
The Trade Area has been delineated on the basis of distance, driving times, accessibility, the road network, customer attraction, existing and proposed competition, employment distribution, physical and psychological barriers, shopping habits and patterns, dining-out patterns, daytime working population, as well as our experience in evaluating shopping centers and other commercial developments throughout the world.
The Trade Area for the Subject Site is depicted in Figure 2.C. The defined Trade Area is influenced by retailers and restaurants in and around Algonquin, Crystal Lake, McHenry, Carpentersville, West Dundee, Woodstock, Huntley, Deer Park and Lake Zurich, among others. By definition, Trade Areas account for approximately 80 to 85 percent of the anticipated customers to the Subject Site. Because of visitors, businesspersons, people passing through the area, and others it is difficult and costly to identify the last 15 to 20 percent, especially for high volume restaurants. Distances traveled and visitor infrequency makes it uneconomic to attempt to define the last 15 percent. The Trade Area, as defined, represents the geographic area from which the vast majority of sales will be derived.
In determining the Trade Area for the Subject Site, we have examined distances, driving times, and retailer concentration attraction. The Trade Area is influenced by the existence of major competitive concentrations which proscribe the trading area. Auto dealerships and truck dealerships attract customers from wider trade areas so we have extended the trade area out to a 20 minute drive time. Many of the retailers that are located in Crystal Lake for example also have a location in McHenry so their trade areas may be only a 10 or 15 minute drive time.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 14
Figure 2.C
TRADE AREA MAP
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The Primary Trade Area has been delineated to include the geographic area within a ten minute drive time. The Primary Trade Area represents the geographic area from which the most frequent visitors will originate. Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the consumers generated to the Subject Site will be generated from the Primary Trade Area. Supermarkets tend to delineate trade areas of three miles, while big box retailers consider five-mile radii. Figure 2.C presents the Trade Area Map.
The Secondary Trade Area has been delineated to include the geographic area beyond ten minutes driving time and extending out to a fifteen minute driving time. The Secondary Trade Area represents the geographic areas from which consumers will originate on a less frequent basis. Approximately 10 to 20 percent of the consumers will be generated from the Secondary Trade Area. Stores generating customers beyond the Primary Trade Area, but within the Secondary Trade Area include signature restaurants.
The Total Trade Area represents the geographic area within a 20 minute drive time from the Subject Sites. Approximately 85 percent of the consumers generated to the Subject Site will originate from within the delineated Trade Area. Another 10 to 15 percent will be generated from outside the delineated Trade Area. Again, this includes visitors and other consumers who shop the area on an infrequent basis or may be passing through the area. This also includes employees that work in the Northwest Suburban Area but reside outside the delineated trade area. In order to provide a benchmark the Total Trade Area was delineated to include a 20 minute drive time. The trade area is slightly larger than a typical retail trade area due to the geographic separation of auto dealerships.
Some of the major competitive retail concentrations influencing the Village of Lake in the Hills’ retail market include those located in around Algonquin, Crystal Lake, McHenry, Carpentersville, West Dundee, Woodstock, Huntley, Deer Park and Lake Zurich, among others. The principal regional Malls and lifestyle centers influencing the Village of Lake in the Hills include Algonquin Commons in Algonquin, Spring Hill Mall in West Dundee and Deer Park Town Center in Deer Park. There is also the Huntley Factory Outlet center at Interstate 90 and IL Route 47. Algonquin Commons in Algonquin is a 400,000 Lifestyle Center located on IL Route 47 and North County Line Road. Some of the tenants include Dick’s Sporting Goods, Petsmart, Trader Joe’s, Ross Dress for Less, Half-Price Books, DSW, American Eagle Outfitters, Bath & Body Works, Old Navy, Chico’s, Gap, Gap Kids, Hollister, J Jill, Jos. A. Bank, Loft, Maurices, New York & Co., Pottery Barn, Rue 21, Tilly's Torrid, Ulta, Victoria’s Secret, White House/Black Market, Yankee Candle, Biaggi’s Ristorante, Houlihan’s, Bonefish Grill, and Fuddruckers, among others.
Deer Park Town Center Deer Park Town Center is a 500,000 square foot Lifestyle Center located on Rand Road (U.S. Route 12) and Long Grove Road in Deer Park. Numerous upscale specialty stores, restaurants, and services anchor this lifestyle center. Some of the tenants include American Eagle Outfitters, Ann Taylor, Apple Store, Banana Republic, Barnes & Noble, Bath & Body Works, Chico’s, Coldwater Creek, Crate & Barrel, Gap, J Crew, Jos. A. Bank, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Restoration
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Lake in the Hills
Population Change TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Percent Percent Percent Number Number Number Change Change Change 1980 Census 48,595 75,755 133,124 1990 Census 62,814 29.3% 97,558 28.8% 164,406 23.5% 2000 Census 94,429 50.3% 154,546 58.4% 238,768 45.2% 2010 Census 98,857 4.7% 179,682 16.3% 282,752 18.4% 2014 Projection 97,515 -1.4% 177,897 -1.0% 280,898 -0.7% 2019 Projection 97,461 -0.1% 178,730 0.5% 283,356 0.9%
Households Change TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Percent Percent Percent Number Number Number Change Change Change 1980 Census 15,640 24,001 43,140 1990 Census 21,381 36.7% 32,401 35.0% 55,718 29.2% 2000 Census 32,107 50.2% 51,139 57.8% 80,636 44.7% 2010 Census 34,935 8.8% 60,940 19.2% 97,066 20.4% 2014 Projection 35,643 2.0% 62,190 2.1% 99,075 2.1% 2019 Projection 36,858 3.4% 64,283 3.4% 102,354 3.3%
Families (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Families 26,913 48,473 75,806 Average Family Household Size 3.16 3.25 3.25 Households: Non-Family 8,730 13,717 23,269 Average Non-Family Household Size 1.41 1.44 1.45
Population by Race (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White 88,518 90.8% 155,021 87.1% 241,702 86.0% Black 1,057 1.1% 3,615 2.0% 5,505 2.0% Asian 2,617 2.7% 7,252 4.1% 11,332 4.0% Native American 272 0.3% 526 0.3% 832 0.3% Hawaiian / Pacific Islander 25 0.0% 54 0.0% 82 0.0% Two or More 1,651 1.7% 3,272 1.8% 5,462 1.9% Other Race 3,376 3.5% 8,158 4.6% 15,983 5.7% Total 97,516 100.0% 177,898 100.0% 280,898 100.0%
Hispanic Population (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Hispanic 10,520 10.8% 23,693 13.3% 45,012 16.0% Not Hispanic 86,995 89.2% 154,204 86.7% 235,887 84.0% Total 97,515 100.0% 177,897 100.0% 280,899 100.0%
Income (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Median Household Income $84,203 $85,602 $82,617 Average Household Income $100,436 $103,126 $102,412 Average Family Income $110,096 $112,019 $113,066 Per Capita Income $36,735 $36,067 $36,141
Households by Income (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Less Than $10,000 849 2.4% 2,049 3.3% 3,255 3.3% $10,000-$14,999 468 1.3% 810 1.3% 1,596 1.6% $15,000-$19,999 969 2.7% 1,569 2.5% 2,708 2.7% $20,000-$24,999 1,338 3.8% 2,035 3.3% 3,539 3.6% $25,000-$29,999 1,156 3.2% 1,930 3.1% 3,399 3.4% $30,000-$34,999 1,043 2.9% 1,791 2.9% 3,131 3.2% $35,000-$39,999 1,170 3.3% 1,919 3.1% 3,314 3.3% $40,000-$49,999 2,321 6.5% 4,098 6.6% 6,566 6.6% $50,000-$59,999 2,570 7.2% 4,529 7.3% 7,226 7.3% $60,000-$74,999 3,781 10.6% 6,315 10.2% 10,241 10.3% $75,000-$99,999 5,859 16.4% 9,554 15.4% 14,969 15.1% $100,000-$124,999 4,443 12.5% 7,911 12.7% 12,125 12.2% $125,000-$149,999 2,959 8.3% 5,298 8.5% 7,966 8.0% $150,000-$199,999 3,669 10.3% 6,463 10.4% 9,724 9.8% $200,000-$249,999 1,377 3.9% 2,554 4.1% 3,883 3.9% $250,000-$499,999 1,190 3.3% 2,367 3.8% 3,740 3.8% $500,000+ 481 1.4% 1,001 1.6% 1,693 1.7% Total 35,643 100.0% 62,193 100.0% 99,075 100.0%
Households by Tenure (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Owner Occupied 30,365 82.5% 54,026 84.2% 83,187 80.9% Renter Occupied 5,278 14.3% 8,164 12.7% 15,888 15.4% Vacant 1,177 3.2% 2,004 3.1% 3,792 3.7% Total 36,820 100.0% 64,194 100.0% 102,867 100.0%
Daytime Population (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Establishments 4,906 7,083 12,591 Employees 47,046 69,386 133,523
Population by Gender (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Male 48,355 49.6% 88,383 49.7% 139,563 49.7% Female 49,161 50.4% 89,514 50.3% 141,335 50.3% Total 97,516 100.0% 177,897 100.0% 280,898 100.0%
Marital Status (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Now Married 42,796 55.0% 78,300 56.6% 123,569 56.4% Separated 2,336 3.0% 3,968 2.9% 6,795 3.1% Divorced 7,456 9.6% 12,111 8.7% 19,274 8.8% Never Married 21,844 28.1% 38,428 27.8% 60,002 27.4% Widowed 3,432 4.4% 5,613 4.1% 9,384 4.3% Total 77,864 100.0% 138,420 100.0% 219,024 100.0%
Household Structure (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Married Couple Family with Children 11,657 43.3% 22,329 46.1% 34,029 44.9% Lone Parent Male with Children 756 2.8% 1,416 2.9% 2,433 3.2% Lone Parent Female with Children 2,019 7.5% 3,709 7.7% 5,923 7.8% Married Couple Family No Children 10,622 39.5% 18,018 37.2% 28,529 37.6% Lone Parent Male No Children 627 2.3% 1,045 2.2% 1,738 2.3% Lone Parent Female No Children 1,233 4.6% 1,956 4.0% 3,154 4.2% Total 26,914 100.0% 48,473 100.0% 75,806 100.0%
Total Population (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Age 0-4 5,376 5.5% 10,957 6.2% 17,829 6.3% Age 5-9 6,452 6.6% 13,270 7.5% 20,923 7.4% Age 10-14 7,823 8.0% 15,251 8.6% 23,123 8.2% Age 15-19 7,866 8.1% 14,235 8.0% 21,603 7.7% Age 20-24 5,997 6.1% 10,210 5.7% 16,180 5.8% Age 25-29 5,224 5.4% 9,015 5.1% 14,417 5.1% Age 30-34 5,323 5.5% 10,125 5.7% 16,255 5.8% Age 35-39 5,635 5.8% 11,374 6.4% 18,267 6.5% Age 40-44 7,264 7.4% 14,115 7.9% 21,705 7.7% Age 45-49 8,629 8.8% 15,551 8.7% 23,465 8.4% Age 50-54 8,828 9.1% 15,134 8.5% 23,051 8.2% Age 55-59 7,327 7.5% 12,242 6.9% 19,117 6.8% Age 60-64 5,328 5.5% 9,129 5.1% 14,797 5.3% Age 65-69 3,838 3.9% 6,453 3.6% 10,902 3.9% Age 70-74 2,390 2.5% 4,098 2.3% 7,208 2.6% Age 75-79 1,740 1.8% 2,804 1.6% 4,900 1.7% Age 80-84 1,198 1.2% 1,928 1.1% 3,403 1.2% Age 85+ 1,277 1.3% 2,006 1.1% 3,753 1.3% Total 97,515 100.0% 177,897 100.0% 280,898 100.0% Median 39.2 37.6 37.8
Total Male Population (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Age 0-4 2,752 5.7% 5,606 6.3% 9,127 6.5% Age 5-9 3,280 6.8% 6,756 7.6% 10,689 7.7% Age 10-14 3,960 8.2% 7,747 8.8% 11,817 8.5% Age 15-19 4,087 8.5% 7,389 8.4% 11,212 8.0% Age 20-24 3,151 6.5% 5,259 5.9% 8,311 6.0% Age 25-29 2,731 5.6% 4,588 5.2% 7,384 5.3% Age 30-34 2,695 5.6% 5,031 5.7% 8,095 5.8% Age 35-39 2,776 5.7% 5,546 6.3% 8,949 6.4% Age 40-44 3,512 7.3% 6,902 7.8% 10,707 7.7% Age 45-49 4,190 8.7% 7,641 8.6% 11,585 8.3% Age 50-54 4,309 8.9% 7,505 8.5% 11,427 8.2% Age 55-59 3,710 7.7% 6,184 7.0% 9,569 6.9% Age 60-64 2,619 5.4% 4,514 5.1% 7,265 5.2% Age 65-69 1,809 3.7% 3,096 3.5% 5,274 3.8% Age 70-74 1,094 2.3% 1,876 2.1% 3,271 2.3% Age 75-79 791 1.6% 1,289 1.5% 2,220 1.6% Age 80-84 469 1.0% 782 0.9% 1,403 1.0% Age 85+ 419 0.9% 674 0.8% 1,259 0.9% Total 48,354 100.0% 88,385 100.0% 139,564 100.0% Median 37.7 36.6 36.8
Total Female Population (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Age 0-4 2,624 5.3% 5,351 6.0% 8,701 6.2% Age 5-9 3,173 6.5% 6,514 7.3% 10,234 7.2% Age 10-14 3,862 7.9% 7,504 8.4% 11,306 8.0% Age 15-19 3,779 7.7% 6,846 7.6% 10,391 7.4% Age 20-24 2,846 5.8% 4,951 5.5% 7,870 5.6% Age 25-29 2,493 5.1% 4,428 4.9% 7,033 5.0% Age 30-34 2,627 5.3% 5,094 5.7% 8,161 5.8% Age 35-39 2,859 5.8% 5,828 6.5% 9,319 6.6% Age 40-44 3,752 7.6% 7,214 8.1% 10,999 7.8% Age 45-49 4,439 9.0% 7,910 8.8% 11,880 8.4% Age 50-54 4,519 9.2% 7,629 8.5% 11,624 8.2% Age 55-59 3,616 7.4% 6,058 6.8% 9,548 6.8% Age 60-64 2,709 5.5% 4,615 5.2% 7,532 5.3% Age 65-69 2,029 4.1% 3,357 3.8% 5,628 4.0% Age 70-74 1,296 2.6% 2,222 2.5% 3,936 2.8% Age 75-79 949 1.9% 1,515 1.7% 2,680 1.9% Age 80-84 729 1.5% 1,146 1.3% 2,000 1.4% Age 85+ 859 1.7% 1,332 1.5% 2,495 1.8% Total 49,160 100.0% 89,514 100.0% 141,337 100.0% Median 40.4 38.5 38.7
Population by Household Type (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Family 84,955 87.1% 157,771 88.7% 246,442 87.7% Non-Family 12,275 12.6% 19,786 11.1% 33,703 12.0% Group Quarters 285 0.3% 340 0.2% 753 0.3% Total 97,515 100.0% 177,897 100.0% 280,898 100.0%
Labor Force Employment Status 16 Plus (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent In Armed Forces 18 0.0% 65 0.1% 114 0.1% Employed 51,972 92.9% 91,764 92.6% 143,738 92.4% Unemployed 3,957 7.1% 7,278 7.3% 11,665 7.5% Total 55,947 100.0% 99,107 100.0% 155,517 100.0%
Educational Attainment Age 25+ (2014) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent < Grade 9 1,509 2.4% 3,590 3.2% 6,885 3.8% Grades 9-12 2,454 3.9% 4,909 4.3% 8,860 4.9% High School 15,039 23.6% 26,670 23.5% 43,404 24.0% Some College 15,324 24.0% 26,540 23.4% 40,711 22.6% Associate Degree 4,672 7.3% 8,899 7.8% 13,826 7.7% Bachelors Degree 16,802 26.4% 28,969 25.5% 44,554 24.7% Graduate Degree 7,934 12.4% 14,078 12.4% 22,289 12.3% Total 63,734 100.0% 113,655 100.0% 180,529 100.0%
Educational Attainment Age 25+ (2010) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent No schooling completed 394 0.6% 784 0.7% 1,277 0.7% Nursery-4th grade 220 0.3% 446 0.4% 897 0.5% 5th-6th grade 559 0.9% 1,413 1.2% 2,813 1.6% 7th-8th grade 499 0.8% 1,152 1.0% 2,104 1.2% 9th grade 485 0.8% 920 0.8% 1,938 1.1% 10th grade 659 1.0% 1,259 1.1% 2,210 1.2% 11th grade 723 1.1% 1,457 1.3% 2,309 1.3% 12th grade no diploma 813 1.3% 1,663 1.5% 2,747 1.5% High school graduate, GED, or alternative 15,319 23.9% 27,233 23.9% 43,903 24.3% Some college, < 1 year 4,871 7.6% 8,207 7.2% 12,659 7.0% Some college, 1+ years, no degree 10,228 15.9% 17,671 15.5% 27,084 15.0% Associate's degree 4,768 7.4% 8,685 7.6% 13,472 7.5% Bachelor's degree 16,566 25.8% 28,986 25.5% 44,933 24.9% Master's degree 6,631 10.3% 11,198 9.8% 17,141 9.5% Professional school degree 1,033 1.6% 1,888 1.7% 3,515 1.9% Doctorate degree 425 0.7% 899 0.8% 1,393 0.8% Total 64,193 100.0% 113,861 100.0% 180,395 100.0%
Educational Attainment Male Age 25+ (2010) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent No schooling completed 242 0.8% 484 0.9% 726 0.8% Nursery-4th grade 74 0.2% 176 0.3% 405 0.5% 5th-6th grade 231 0.7% 688 1.2% 1,417 1.6% 7th-8th grade 266 0.9% 516 0.9% 1,061 1.2% 9th grade 205 0.7% 468 0.8% 977 1.1% 10th grade 302 1.0% 636 1.1% 1,086 1.2% 11th grade 308 1.0% 507 0.9% 829 0.9% 12th grade no diploma 451 1.4% 1,011 1.8% 1,675 1.9% High school graduate, GED, or alternative 7,021 22.5% 12,607 22.7% 20,482 23.3% Some college, < 1 year 2,238 7.2% 3,796 6.8% 5,827 6.6% Some college, 1+ years, no degree 5,274 16.9% 8,902 16.0% 13,444 15.3% Associate's degree 2,038 6.5% 3,756 6.8% 5,817 6.6% Bachelor's degree 8,159 26.2% 14,514 26.1% 22,419 25.5% Master's degree 3,391 10.9% 5,659 10.2% 8,654 9.8% Professional school degree 741 2.4% 1,263 2.3% 2,281 2.6% Doctorate degree 246 0.8% 534 1.0% 819 0.9% Total 31,187 100.0% 55,517 100.0% 87,919 100.0%
Educational Attainment Female Age 25+ (2010) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent No schooling completed 152 0.5% 300 0.5% 552 0.6% Nursery-4th grade 146 0.4% 270 0.5% 492 0.5% 5th-6th grade 328 1.0% 725 1.2% 1,395 1.5% 7th-8th grade 233 0.7% 636 1.1% 1,043 1.1% 9th grade 280 0.8% 452 0.8% 961 1.0% 10th grade 357 1.1% 623 1.1% 1,123 1.2% 11th grade 415 1.3% 950 1.6% 1,481 1.6% 12th grade no diploma 362 1.1% 652 1.1% 1,072 1.2% High school graduate, GED, or alternative 8,298 25.1% 14,626 25.1% 23,422 25.3% Some college, < 1 year 2,633 8.0% 4,411 7.6% 6,832 7.4% Some college, 1+ years, no degree 4,954 15.0% 8,769 15.0% 13,640 14.7% Associate's degree 2,730 8.3% 4,930 8.4% 7,655 8.3% Bachelor's degree 8,407 25.5% 14,472 24.8% 22,514 24.3% Master's degree 3,240 9.8% 5,540 9.5% 8,488 9.2% Professional school degree 292 0.9% 625 1.1% 1,233 1.3% Doctorate degree 179 0.5% 365 0.6% 574 0.6% Total 33,006 100.0% 58,346 100.0% 92,477 100.0%
Housing Value of Owner-Occupied Housing Units: (2010) TravelTime of 10 TravelTime of 15 TravelTime of 20
minutes minutes minutes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Less than $10,000 114 0.4% 216 0.4% 298 0.4% $10,000 to $14,999 112 0.4% 192 0.4% 288 0.4% $15,000 to $19,999 91 0.3% 163 0.3% 240 0.3% $20,000 to $24,999 118 0.4% 181 0.3% 262 0.3% $25,000 to $29,999 81 0.3% 153 0.3% 222 0.3% $30,000 to $34,999 111 0.4% 176 0.3% 241 0.3% $35,000 to $39,999 56 0.2% 105 0.2% 145 0.2% $40,000 to $49,999 126 0.4% 226 0.4% 376 0.5% $50,000 to $59,999 154 0.5% 292 0.6% 458 0.6% $60,000 to $69,999 181 0.6% 330 0.6% 552 0.7% $70,000 to $79,999 332 1.1% 540 1.0% 797 1.0% $80,000 to $89,999 307 1.0% 519 1.0% 849 1.0% $90,000 to $99,999 285 1.0% 558 1.1% 897 1.1% $100,000 to $124,999 1,178 4.0% 2,040 3.9% 3,197 3.9% $125,000 to $149,999 1,332 4.5% 2,406 4.6% 3,802 4.7% $150,000 to $174,999 2,618 8.8% 4,786 9.1% 7,923 9.8% $175,000 to $199,999 2,773 9.3% 4,608 8.7% 6,883 8.5% $200,000 to $249,999 6,211 20.9% 10,122 19.2% 14,801 18.2% $250,000 to $299,999 5,107 17.2% 8,509 16.1% 11,762 14.5% $300,000 to $399,999 5,075 17.1% 9,242 17.5% 14,180 17.5% $400,000 to $499,999 1,616 5.4% 3,446 6.5% 5,652 7.0% $500,000 to $749,999 1,251 4.2% 2,786 5.3% 4,915 6.1% $750,000 to $999,999 233 0.8% 678 1.3% 1,346 1.7% $1,000,000 or more 215 0.7% 518 1.0% 1,130 1.4% Total 29,677 100.0% 52,792 100.0% 81,216 100.0% Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 16
Hardware, Talbot’s, Williams-Sonoma, and Yankee Candle, among many others. Some of the restaurants include California Pizza Kitchen, Stoney River Legendary Steaks, Biaggi’s Italiano Ristorante, Noodles & Co., and Panera Bread. Reportedly, the center is averaging sales of approximately $300 per square foot. Lifestyle Centers have made serious inroads with mall-based tenants by lowering occupancy costs, especially in common area maintenance charges.
Spring Hill Mall is a 900,000 square foot regional mall located at IL Route 31 and IL Route 72 in West Dundee. The mall is anchored by Kohl’s, Macy’s, Sears, and Barnes & Noble. Spring Hill Mall has experienced increasing vacancy and tenant turnover. There has also been turnover in big box and junior anchor retailers in recent years including the closure of Target, JC Penney and Best Buy, among several others. JC Penney relocated to freestanding location on Randall Road.
The DiMucci Property is a 109 acre site located in unincorporated Lake County at Rand and Old McHenry Roads near Hawthorn Woods and North Barrington. This is the most significant shopping center proposal in the Northwest Suburbs. The DiMucci property received approved for a large scale retail development featuring approximately 650,000 square feet. The Lake County Board approved the rezoning and a conditional use permit for the land. The Board also approved an intergovernmental agreement with the villages that governs what type of retail center can be built on the land. The intergovernmental agreements are contingent upon county board approval of a development proposal for the property. Thus far, the DiMucci Family has not identified an interested developer nor have they provided a definitive development plan. The DiMucci Family agreed to a reduction of the possible shopping space from 800,000 square feet to 650,000 square feet which assisted in the project’s approval.
Retail Market Trends
The Chicago Retail Market contains over 200 million square feet of retail space or approximately 23 square feet per capita. There were approximately 1.14 million square feet of new retail development in the metropolitan area in 2012. Only 1.02 million square feet was developed in 2011 down from 8.7 million square feet in 2007. Retail development in the Chicago Metropolitan Area had stalled in recent years. In 2015 approximately 3.0 million square feet is planned. The Chicago Metropolitan Area retail development totals are provided below:
2015 3.0 million square feet 2014 2.1 million square feet 2013 2.0 million square feet 2012 1.14 million square feet 2011 1.02 million square feet 2010 1.0 million square feet 2009 3.0 million square feet 2008 3.7 million square feet 2007 8.7 million square feet 2006 6.0 million square feet 2005 5.0 million square feet
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 17
In 2008, approximately 3.7 million square feet of retail space was added. Another, 3.0 million square feet opened in 2009 which was committed in 2007 and 2008.
Retail development has slowed significantly since 2008. Large scale power center and lifestyle center development has been non-existent in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. There are two outlet centers planned in the Chicago Metropolitan Area including outlet centers in New Lenox and Country Club Hills. These projects are in various stages of development. The Chicago Premium Outlets in Aurora is adding approximately 290,000 square feet of new space. The Rosemont Outlet Center opened in the Summer of 2013 in Rosemont. Most new retail development has been focused upon grocery stores including Mariano’s Fresh Market, Fresh Thyme, Wal-Mart, Meijer, Whole Foods, Heinen’s, Standard Market and Plum Market. Many of these retailers took second generation retail space vacated by the closure of Dominick’s. Recent retail construction has been concentrated on big box power centers, freestanding retailers, superstores, home improvement retailers, supermarkets, and freestanding drug stores.
Traditional department store development has been virtually non-existent. Macy’s opened two new stores prior to the recession including The Promenade in Bolingbrook and Gurnee Mills Mall. Nordstrom opened its last store in the Chicago Area in 2003 in the North Bridge development on Michigan Avenue. JC Penney’s relocated a number of their stores out of malls to free-standing locations including Algonquin and Johnsburg. Sales performance at these freestanding “off mall” locations has been mixed. The decline in sales productivity and occupancy at Spring Hill Mall in West Dundee can be attributed in part to all the retail facilities along Randall Road near Algonquin Commons. Many retailers and restaurants have closed stores and relocated from Spring Hill Mall including Target, Best Buy, and JC Penney, among others. This will create opportunities for Lake in the Hills.
The lack of new major shopping center construction heightened competition for vacant “second generation” retail space in established trade areas. Several retailers entered the Chicago Metropolitan Area to capitalize upon the depressed rental rate environment including Ross Dress for Less, hhgregg, Gordmans, Steinhaufels, PGA Superstores, Savers, Mariano’s Fresh Market, and Heinen’s, among others. Reportedly, Gordmans will begin closing their stores in the Chicago Area following poor customer acceptance and sales productivity.
Vacancy Rates and Rental Rates Retail vacancy in the Chicago Metropolitan Area declined to 8.3 percent in the fourth quarter 2014 from 8.6 percent in the third quarter 2014. Chicago retail anchor rents have surged over the past year with average asking rents growing over 20% and average rent comps up over 30%. However, the Chicago Metropolitan Area retail anchor space, this year, reached its highest point since 2009. Additionally, absorption hit a 7 year low, down nearly 50% from last year. The over 1.2 million square feet that was absorbed over the past year represents only 13% of the 9.5 million square feet of anchor space currently available. There is an approximate 8 year supply of second generation anchor space. Anchor spaces that have not leased have been on the market for an average of 49 months.
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Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 18
With a limited amount of leasing activity pursuing an increased supply of space, landlords will have to be more aggressive and offer economic incentives to avoid long term vacancies. The vacancy rate in Lake in the Hills is currently 12.8 percent with a total inventory of approximately 1,030,612 square feet. There is approximately 136,283 square feet available. The net rents per square foot are reported at $14.15. Part of the vacancy or approximately 70,000 square feet is attributed to the vacant Dominick’s store at Randall and Algonquin Roads. The Dominick’s lease runs until 2017. In contrast, Crystal Lake has a vacancy rate of 12.1 percent and nearly 5.0 million square feet of retail space. There is over 690,000 square feet of vacant space in Crystal Lake with net rents at $12.44 per square foot.
Retail Sales
Retail sales in the Metropolitan Area have rebounded above pre-recession levels to over $116 billion billion in 2014. Retail sales increased from $110 billion in 2013 to over 116 billion representing an increase of over $5.3billion or 4.8 percent. Table 2.5 presents the Metro Chicago Changes by Retail Category.
Table 2.5
METRO CHICAGO CHANGES BY MAJOR RETAIL CATEGORY
Total Metro Area 2013 2014 % Change Numerical Change General Merchandise $12,003,731,596 $12,768,689,775 6.4% $764,958,179 Food $13,471,672,048 $13,855,464,711 2.8% $383,792,663 Drinking and Eating Places $14,858,603,067 $15,654,649,060 5.4% $796,045,993 Apparel $5,150,418,064 $5,272,907,603 2.4% $122,489,539 Furniture & H.H. & Radio $5,721,885,306 $5,743,738,303 0.4% $21,852,997 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $5,090,320,656 $5,369,514,473 5.5% $279,193,817 Automotive & Filling Stations $24,240,938,057 $25,280,971,505 4.3% $1,040,033,448 Drugs & Misc. Retail $17,800,566,733 $18,591,474,998 4.4% $790,908,265 Agriculture & All Others $10,481,614,099 $11,348,629,290 8.3% $867,015,191 Manufacturers $2,035,399,393 $2,336,764,660 14.8% $301,365,267
Total $110,855,149,019 $116,222,804,378 4.8% $5,367,655,359 Source: Illinois Department of Revenue and Melaniphy & Associates, Inc., - 2015
Table 2.6 depicts retail sales based upon Illinois Sales Tax Receipts by major retail category for 2008 through 2014. The table examines retail sales in Lake in the Hills and surrounding communities. The table shows the changing nature of retailing, especially when examining the changes by retail category. The sales data provides the actual levels of retail demand in the market.
The Village of Lake in the Hills recorded sales of $252.7 million in 2014 up from $244.4 million in 2013. Nearly 60 percent of the retail sales in Lake in the Hills are concentrated in the Automotive
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Table 2.6 SELECTED MUNICIPALITIES RETAIL SALES BY RETAIL CATEGORY 2008-2014
Lake in the Hills 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 General Merchandise $0 $0 $0 $782,615 $0 $0 $0 Food $15,680,560 $21,697,547 $23,240,419 $23,046,717 $22,637,032 $20,843,147 $25,618,575 Drinking and Eating Places $18,367,611 $18,855,794 $20,153,562 $19,366,571 $19,149,119 $17,294,412 $19,217,971 Apparel $0 $0 $0 $87,821 $0 $0 $0 Furniture & H.H. & Radio $681,698 $941,699 $1,160,139 $1,387,969 $1,775,084 $1,172,553 $1,395,500 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $19,022,249 $18,742,067 $18,019,982 $18,801,046 $19,462,650 $19,773,903 $22,672,446 Automotive & Filling Stations $150,315,479 $138,648,255 $134,796,898 $127,864,719 $105,611,704 $95,267,312 $99,595,305 Drugs & Misc. Retail $33,125,933 $29,064,736 $27,918,995 $23,936,605 $20,146,074 $21,966,387 $21,163,824 Agriculture & All Others $12,910,634 $12,811,603 $12,064,660 $15,016,494 $15,517,822 $12,745,467 $14,842,765 Manufacturers $1,913,609 $2,001,937 $1,796,666 $1,220,861 $6,730,102 $6,648,180 $7,821,222 Total $252,752,696 $243,431,524 $239,884,993 $231,511,418 $211,598,161 $195,744,958 $212,375,829
Algonquin 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 General Merchandise $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Food $17,824,412 $16,796,882 $15,706,058 $14,696,680 $14,361,202 $13,565,332 $12,670,458 Drinking and Eating Places $20,384,175 $23,583,538 $23,852,705 $22,663,768 $17,023,752 $18,639,339 $17,128,928 Apparel $49,083,180 $49,281,781 $48,974,778 $47,635,223 $48,288,286 $42,660,803 $46,499,484 Furniture & H.H. & Radio $43,887,341 $40,985,187 $40,642,141 $36,990,931 $38,369,701 $38,966,670 $44,483,580 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Automotive & Filling Stations $2,805,617 $1,589,491 $1,402,644 $1,479,303 $1,613,552 $1,871,681 $2,617,813 Drugs & Misc. Retail $27,674,727 $26,556,901 $23,584,685 $24,662,058 $23,220,304 $22,038,835 $25,681,694 Agriculture & All Others $3,253,100 $2,354,329 $2,600,274 $2,994,958 $2,992,667 $3,065,238 $3,412,275 Manufacturers $4,885,428 $4,958,874 $4,661,428 $4,327,869 $3,680,085 $5,103,427 $4,914,479 Total $173,534,812 $170,190,182 $167,149,849 $160,113,508 $150,758,493 $147,054,117 $158,937,758
Carpentersville 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 General Merchandise $23,599,845 $24,156,056 $23,525,899 $23,647,728 $25,129,966 $0 $28,862,072 Food $119,041,243 $114,233,955 $119,770,318 $123,155,533 $120,536,076 $120,676,861 $124,233,002 Drinking and Eating Places $27,356,075 $26,081,293 $26,765,975 $26,208,104 $23,234,399 $22,783,405 $26,437,660 Apparel $2,916,727 $3,073,244 $2,988,063 $3,091,821 $3,378,479 $3,694,372 $4,363,622 Furniture & H.H. & Radio $2,560,520 $3,047,517 $2,426,009 $2,126,165 $2,151,581 $0 $3,348,725 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $53,117,544 $50,299,122 $46,795,459 $44,204,138 $43,471,808 $42,396,064 $43,575,306 Automotive & Filling Stations $36,074,066 $35,663,566 $36,278,836 $42,606,231 $31,129,566 $23,187,611 $21,624,341 Drugs & Misc. Retail $28,154,522 $28,663,673 $26,247,989 $25,190,791 $25,091,250 $23,912,277 $22,414,369 Agriculture & All Others $6,969,544 $7,358,214 $7,646,623 $7,466,260 $6,996,743 $7,118,326 $9,468,268 Manufacturers $1,814,296 $1,953,629 $1,900,392 $1,945,354 $2,049,160 $4,159,271 $2,551,342 Total $301,604,382 $294,530,269 $294,345,563 $299,642,125 $283,169,028 $276,033,537 $286,878,707
Source: Illinois Department of Revenue; Standard Industrial Classification Reports (2008-2014) Table 2.6 SELECTED MUNICIPALITIES RETAIL SALES BY RETAIL CATEGORY 2008-2014
Crystal Lake 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 General Merchandise $232,786,581 $234,998,681 $239,024,049 $219,523,014 $240,886,990 $243,420,497 $251,583,702 Food $89,429,280 $89,507,900 $88,824,799 $79,446,222 $86,153,249 $89,042,622 $96,805,193 Drinking and Eating Places $115,275,823 $101,802,120 $97,553,906 $91,011,025 $89,307,780 $84,317,128 $81,876,045 Apparel $16,996,586 $15,263,915 $15,323,295 $36,400,793 $7,971,936 $11,299,989 $16,504,510 Furniture & H.H. & Radio $56,483,340 $64,647,645 $63,467,515 $61,270,504 $66,559,551 $60,584,133 $71,390,680 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $75,862,690 $73,864,743 $62,967,675 $61,143,336 $58,403,627 $66,649,798 $82,113,646 Automotive & Filling Stations $284,454,645 $251,858,901 $225,272,265 $209,527,967 $248,893,966 $210,546,484 $253,538,410 Drugs & Misc. Retail $143,620,134 $142,638,533 $143,806,284 $191,115,767 $77,813,867 $122,619,522 $123,231,306 Agriculture & All Others $78,315,283 $59,750,736 $54,350,912 $62,454,330 $66,171,570 $62,510,731 $76,254,148 Manufacturers $2,969,107 $3,533,925 $2,524,015 $3,028,361 $6,539,061 $4,343,099 $7,954,505 Total $1,096,193,469 $1,037,867,099 $993,114,715 $1,014,921,319 $948,701,597 $955,334,003 $1,061,252,145
Gilberts 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 General Merchandise $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Food $54,995 $53,095 $72,734 $17,408 $310,526 $409,119 $450,872 Drinking and Eating Places $2,049,744 $2,170,460 $1,452,357 $1,276,280 $1,105,538 $1,462,739 $1,207,282 Apparel $122,478 $117,252 $167,967 $63,741 $0 $0 $0 Furniture & H.H. & Radio $818,727 $664,355 $379,457 $272,334 $538,723 $346,426 $442,701 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $1,963,879 $1,595,563 $1,688,662 $1,828,105 $3,796,857 $2,399,491 $9,937,738 Automotive & Filling Stations $6,682,943 $6,461,781 $7,908,209 $6,640,513 $5,831,835 $4,836,838 $5,241,006 Drugs & Misc. Retail $1,392,252 $1,332,390 $731,340 $700,626 $544,630 $454,541 $842,339 Agriculture & All Others $4,799,992 $4,483,197 $4,310,209 $2,890,331 $1,788,328 $2,581,155 $5,662,377 Manufacturers $2,874,960 $2,127,909 $1,531,289 $1,271,004 $1,480,888 $1,603,480 $2,763,121 Total $20,759,970 $19,006,002 $18,242,224 $14,960,342 $15,515,230 $14,177,008 $26,601,181
Huntley 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 General Merchandise $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Food $37,914,940 $32,058,186 $31,965,542 $32,680,230 $35,427,951 $32,987,777 $39,966,956 Drinking and Eating Places $18,531,006 $16,528,087 $13,100,610 $13,592,598 $14,748,127 $15,182,651 $16,173,274 Apparel $10,133,075 $11,632,195 $14,389,051 $28,203,047 $19,032,068 $20,230,585 $17,532,946 Furniture & H.H. & Radio $2,463,632 $3,150,337 $3,119,280 $3,222,437 $3,338,155 $3,553,011 $5,336,379 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $4,205,132 $2,952,079 $1,622,744 $1,580,989 $1,689,569 $2,290,059 $2,261,154 Automotive & Filling Stations $51,922,613 $45,630,049 $40,685,757 $44,714,499 $41,663,849 $31,848,760 $48,332,091 Drugs & Misc. Retail $52,319,559 $48,722,737 $46,527,434 $40,182,309 $32,268,805 $29,573,922 $29,898,642 Agriculture & All Others $18,134,975 $14,690,555 $19,610,995 $14,299,415 $11,619,835 $13,388,561 $17,905,631 Manufacturers $0 $222,837 $1,292,936 $1,241,996 $1,636,696 $2,469,014 $2,472,746 Total $249,807,306 $228,596,059 $223,386,082 $214,325,442 $205,571,424 $181,212,574 $181,423,250
Source: Illinois Department of Revenue; Standard Industrial Classification Reports (2008-2014) Table 2.6 SELECTED MUNICIPALITIES RETAIL SALES BY RETAIL CATEGORY 2008-2014
McHenry 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 General Merchandise $115,861,343 $39,685,025 $45,210,933 $73,394,953 $91,025,848 $90,742,008 $94,870,281 Food $47,992,907 $43,804,703 $45,069,740 $48,078,588 $48,929,780 $51,539,875 $55,794,530 Drinking and Eating Places $63,893,950 $58,300,564 $55,303,125 $52,791,416 $51,060,056 $49,864,634 $51,206,140 Apparel $18,692,100 $18,634,148 $18,268,366 $26,569,015 $15,174,166 $13,722,403 $14,381,694 Furniture & H.H. & Radio $29,588,974 $29,268,682 $25,550,724 $27,155,020 $27,873,037 $28,740,180 $36,439,463 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $27,999,007 $27,067,628 $25,913,509 $26,904,196 $27,558,852 $30,671,379 $38,593,398 Automotive & Filling Stations $191,367,179 $243,661,745 $234,567,599 $225,965,297 $206,926,171 $182,994,924 $196,343,274 Drugs & Misc. Retail $76,137,804 $77,206,568 $72,810,052 $72,045,213 $71,457,933 $72,839,151 $75,154,106 Agriculture & All Others $38,880,532 $34,523,617 $32,654,314 $32,285,930 $31,556,805 $30,535,078 $42,751,894 Manufacturers $21,958,830 $33,610,507 $31,986,212 $22,495,262 $18,270,342 $14,102,292 $13,742,574 Total $632,372,626 $605,763,187 $587,334,574 $607,684,890 $589,832,990 $565,751,924 $619,277,354
West Dundee 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 General Merchandise $31,353,992 $42,918,787 $48,205,508 $51,284,215 $58,243,006 $57,932,531 $70,590,643 Food $24,037,328 $22,156,072 $21,591,357 $21,397,333 $22,862,349 $24,367,095 $25,832,332 Drinking and Eating Places $29,829,093 $28,768,920 $29,864,186 $31,413,040 $31,264,886 $31,666,464 $33,899,989 Apparel $12,797,073 $14,838,565 $16,364,221 $17,068,040 $17,801,111 $19,107,572 $22,396,261 Furniture & H.H. & Radio -$2,663,681 $647,950 $4,939,527 $15,869,299 $21,483,661 $18,649,322 $21,428,810 Lumber, Bldg, Hardware $274,018 $182,125 $151,936 $0 $0 $703,296 $0 Automotive & Filling Stations $19,004,203 $20,559,513 $22,098,360 $23,275,826 $21,245,269 $18,965,658 $23,032,263 Drugs & Misc. Retail $43,105,812 $43,014,776 $46,242,752 $44,421,265 $45,808,586 $36,945,806 $52,099,398 Agriculture & All Others $10,777,016 $8,147,445 $7,898,037 $7,312,547 $0 $12,519,547 $16,660,365 Manufacturers $2,634,109 $2,814,831 $2,595,749 $0 $0 $2,028,678 $0 Total $171,148,963 $184,048,984 $199,951,633 $214,883,604 $229,476,034 $222,885,969 $268,265,917
Source: Illinois Department of Revenue; Standard Industrial Classification Reports (2008-2014) Market Feasibility Study – Route 31 and Rakow Road - Lake in the Hills, Illinois Page 19
& Filling Stations category with sales of over $150 million. There were no sales in the General Merchandise category. Food store sales amounted to $15.6 million in 2014. The Drugs & Miscellaneous category generated sales of $33.1 million in 2014. The Drinking & Eating Places category recorded sales of $18.3 million while the Lumber & Hardware category recorded sales of $19 million.
West Dundee has experienced a nearly $100 million decline in retail sales since 2008. West Dundee’s retail sales declined from $268 million in 2008 to $171 million in 2014. Nearly $40 million was lost in the General Merchandise category with the closure of Target and JC Penney. The apparel category has declined from over $22 million in 2008 to $12 million in 2008 representing a decline of nearly $10 million. Spring Hill Mall is primarily responsible for the decline in apparel sales.
Crystal Lake generates the most significant sales of any of the surrounding communities with retail sales of over $1.0 billion. The General Merchandise category alone generated sales of over $232 million. Sales in this category were over $251 million in 2008. The automotive and filing stations category recorded sales of over $284 million up from $253 million in 2008. Crystal Lake offers several major auto dealers along US Route 14 and the Pauly Toyota/Scion on IL Route 31.
The City of McHenry recorded retail sales of over $632 million. The Automotive and Filling Stations category alone contributed over $191 million in retail sales.
Table 2.7 presents the per capita expenditures by retail category for each segment of the Trade Area for 2014, 2019 and 2024, respectively. The per capita expenditures were then applied to the population within the respective portions of the Trade Area to compute the total retail expenditure potential within each segment of the Trade Area and retail category. Table 2.8 presents the total retail potential by retail category for the projection years
Lake in the Hills Market Penetration
Market penetration for a shopping center, retailer, or restaurant is the level of market share that the facility is capturing or expected to capture of Personal Consumption Expenditures within a defined Trade Area. The market penetration of Lake in the Hills was computed in order to calculate the likely sales volumes that various retailers, restaurants and auto dealerships might expect to capture. The market penetration and sales volume computations are also based upon a review of the competitive retail concentrations within the Trade Area. Table 2.9 presents the market penetration and sales volumes of Lake in the Hills by retail category and Trade Area segment for the projection years. The table indicates the market potential for additional retail, restaurants, and automobile dealerships in Lake in the Hills. A discussion is as follows:
■ The data indicate that 2014 retail sales potential in the Lake in the Hills Trade Area amounted to approximately $5.2 billion.
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■ General Merchandise potential within the trade area amounts to over $741 million. Lake in the Hills is exporting sales in this category to Crystal Lake and Algonquin, among others. However, this category represents a development opportunity to enhance Lake in the Hills’ market penetration.
■ In the Food Category (food consumed at home), total Food Expenditures are estimated at $1.2 billion. Lake in the Hills captured $15.6 million in 2014, resulting in a market penetration of 1.2 percent. Conventional Food stores typically serve a trade area of only two to three miles. Sales in this category should be much higher. There is significant Food store competition in Crystal Lake. However, the Lake in the Hills market could support a conventional supermarket following the closure of all the Dominick’s stores. Another supermarket would enhance market penetration in this category. Both Fresh Thyme and Aldi are opening new stores in Crystal Lake. The former Wal-Mart and Garden Fresh Market stores remain vacant in Crystal Lake.
■ In the Eating & Drinking category (food and beverages consumed away from home), Trade Area residents spent an estimated $517 million in restaurants, quick service food units, and bars. Lake in the Hills captured sales of $18.3 million in the Eating and Drinking category. There are opportunities for restaurant development on the Subject Sites including full-service restaurants and quick service facilities. Lake in the Hills market penetration in this category amounted to 3.6 percent of the trade area potential.
■ Trade Area residents spent an estimated $242 million on Apparel & Accessories including shoes. However, Lake in the Hills does not have any Apparel & Accessories stores. We do not envision an immediate opportunity on the Subject Sites in this category.
■ In the Furniture & Home Furnishings category in 2014, Trade Area residents spent an estimated $328 million. Lake in the Hills recorded sales of $681,698 in this category in 2014. A furniture store may represent a future development opportunity on the Subject Sites in proximity to Wal-Mart. The Village should target furniture stores, mattress stores, home furnishings & accessories stores, lighting stores, patio furniture stores, fireplace stores and fabric stores.
■ In the Appliances & Electronics category in 2014, Trade Area residents spent an estimated $316 million in the Trade Area. Lake in the Hills should target cellular phone stores, computer stores in this category.
■ In the Home Improvement category, which includes Lumber, Building, and Hardware, Trade Area residents spent an estimated $336 million. Lake in the Hills currently has a Lowe’s home improvement store on Randall Road. Lake in the Hills captured retail sales amounting to an estimated $19.0 million for a market penetration of 5.7 percent. The recession has had an adverse impact on sales in this category throughout the Chicago Metropolitan Area. In 2008, sales in this category in Lake in the Hills amounted to over $22.6 million. Home Depot and Menards are located to the north in Crystal Lake. Ziegler’s Ace Hardware also has a location in Crystal Lake. Should Menards wish to relocate to enjoy proximity to Wal-Mart the Subject Sites represents an opportunity. Menards is known to follow Wal-Mart.
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■ Drug Store expenditures by Trade Area residents amounted to an estimated $229 million. Lake in the Hills generated over $33 million in the Drugs and Miscellaneous Stores sales. Market penetration amounted to 7.5 percent. Walgreens and CVS currently have stores in Lake in the Hills, Crystal Lake and Cary, among others. Both Walgreens and CVS have reduced store expansions. However, with additional retail along Route 31with Wal-Mart and other retailers there will be an opportunity for a drug store in the future.
■ Miscellaneous Retail Stores expenditures within the trade area amounted to an estimated $487 million. This includes numerous specialty stores normally found in malls and strip centers. Lake in the Hills generated approximately $33.1 million in this category for a market penetration of 3.3 percent.
■ Trade Area residents spent an estimated $65 million on Sporting Goods. Lake in the Hills did not capture any sales in this category. The Sporting Goods category is currently served by two Sports Authority stores in Crystal Lake as well a store in Lake Zurich. Dick’s Sporting Goods operates stores in Algonquin, McHenry and Deer Park.
■ In the Book Store category, we estimate that Trade Area residents spent an estimated $49 million. The bankruptcy of Border’s Books and changes in technology has had an adverse impact on conventional book stores. Barnes & Noble operates a store on US Route 14 in Crystal Lake. We do not envision a major book store as part of any shopping center development.
■ In the Pet Store category, Trade Area residents spent an estimated $42 million. Lake in the Hills did not capture any significant sales in this category. Petsmart is located in Crystal Lake at Route 14 and IL Route 31 and Petco is located along Route 14. An independent pet store like Kriser’s and the Corner Barkery may represent a future opportunity.
■ Trade Area residents spent an estimated $22 million in Office Supply Stores. No sales were generated in this category in Lake in the Hills. We do not envision an office supply store on the Subject Sites. Office Maxx is located on Route 14 in Crystal Lake. Office Depot and Office Maxx merged and numerous stores closures resulted in this consolidation effort.
■ Other Miscellaneous Stores category is somewhat of a catch-all category. Trade Area residents spent an estimated $21 million in this category. Lake in the Hills did not capture any significant sales in this category. We envision market penetration to increase in this category.
■ The Automotive and Gasoline Filling Stations category is underserved in Lake in the Hills. Trade Area residents spent an estimated $1.0 billion. Retail sales in the Automotive and Filing Stations category in Crystal Lake amounted to over $284 million. In Crystal Lake, there is the Pauly Toyota/Scion auto dealership on IL Route 31 and several others concentrated on US Route 14. We envision the potential for future relocation of the older facilities to sites that can accommodate the land requirements of today’s prototype dealerships.
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Lake in the Hills Market Potential
The Market Penetration analysis indicates that there are some intermediate and long term development opportunities. The mix of new retailers and automobile dealerships will greatly affect the level of retail sales that might be achieved. The initial primary focus of economic development efforts should be on an additional automobile dealership, a big box power center, supermarket and c-store/gas station. A discussion of each retail category is presented below.
General Merchandise The General Merchandise category does not represent an immediate opportunity on the Subject Sites. We recommend the Village of Lake in the Hills monitor this category for future opportunities. Target, Wal-Mart, Sam’s Club, Kohl’s, Costco, and others are already serving this trade area. Sales of these types of retailers range from an estimated $18 million to over $160 million annually. We have considered Blains Fleet & Farm. They are currently located in Woodstock. Other General Merchandise stores may consider relocating to IL Route 31 near Wal-Mart
The Food Category The Food Category in Lake in the Hills has a market penetration at 1.5 percent. We recommend a supermarket be pursued to enhance market penetration in this category. Sales potential in this category amounts to over $38 million in 2019 and $43 million in 2024.
The Eating & Drinking Category Lake in the Hills has a market penetration of 3.6 percent in this category. There is a market for additional foodservice facilities. There is a variety of possible restaurant and quick service facilities. Sales in this category are forecast to rise to $20.2 million in 2019 and $22.9 million in 2024.
Apparel & Accessory Store Category There are no major Apparel & Accessories stores in Lake in the Hills. This category represents an opportunity once a major anchor is secured. Sales are forecast to rise to $1.5 million in 2019 and $1.8 million in 2024.
Furniture & Household Furnishings Lake in the Hills could add Furniture & Household Furnishings stores. Algonquin has some furniture and household furnishings store like Dania and Ashley. We anticipate a Furniture and Households Furnishings store in the initial development. However, by 2019 we forecast sales of $1.9 million rising to $2.1 million in 2024.
Appliances & Electronics The 2008-2009 recession has been hard on this category. Circuit City closed all of their stores and sales at Best Buy had declined with numerous store closings. Lake in the Hills lacks any major stores in this category. We do not envision a major electronics and appliance store since
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hhgregg and Best Buy both have stores in Crystal Lake serving this trade area. There will be an intermediate market for cellular telephone stores and computer stores.
Home Improvement This category includes Lumber, Building Materials, Hardware, and Garden Supplies. Lake in the Hills generated sales of over $19 million with a market penetration of 5.7 percent. We estimate that in 2019, stores in this category can expect to capture sales of an estimated $21 million in 2018 and $23 million in 2023. Lowe’s is the primary store serving this category. Menards, Home Depot and Ziegler’s Ace Hardware currently serve this category in Crystal Lake and capture sales of over $75 million. We do not recommend the additional of stores in this category unless it is a relocation of Menards or Home Depot.
Drug Stores The Drug Store category generated nearly $13 million in sales in Lake in the Hills. There will be a market for a major drug store on the Subject Sites in Lake in the Hills. In 2019, we estimate that sales in this category should reach $19.0 million and $21 million in 2024. The market penetration is forecast to amount to 7.5 percent.
Miscellaneous Retail Stores Retail sales in this category amounted to over $16 million with a market penetration of 3.3 percent. By 2019, we estimate that with a power center development sales in this category will rise to $17.9 million and $20.4 million in 2024.
Sporting Goods Lake in the Hills did not generate any major sporting goods sales. We do not recommend a major sporting goods store on the Subject Sites given the competition in Crystal Lake and Algonquin from Sports Authority and Dick’s Sporting Goods.
Book Stores The Book Stores category did not generate any sales in Lake in the Hills. We do not envision a book store on the Subject Sites given the bankruptcy of Border’s Books and the changes in technology affecting brick and mortar book stores.
Pet Stores The Pet Store category may represent a long range opportunity on the Subject site given that no sales were generated in this category in Lake in the Hills. In 2019, we estimate the sales in the Pet Store category could initially amount to an estimated $1.1 million. Sales are forecast to increase to $1.1 million in 2024. We recommend the addition of Pet Stores like Kriser's or The Corner Barkery on the Subject Sites. Petco and Petsmart are both located in Crystal Lake. We recommend an independent pet store.
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Office Supply Stores Lake in the Hills is not currently capturing any sales in this category. The recent recession has forced some office supply stores to close and re-evaluate their prototypical store sizes. The only potential office supply store not located in Crystal Lake is Staples. We do not recommend an office supply store.
Other Miscellaneous Retail Stores Lake in the Hills captured reasonable sales in this category. We estimate that sales in this category will rise to $1.0 million in 2019 and to $1.1 million in 2024.
Automotive and Gasoline Filling Stations Lake in the Hills generated over $150 million in this category in 2015. The Hertz Car Sales location has been a factor in this category along with Lemon Grove Motors. Flat Squirrel Scooters and all the gasoline filing stations in the Village. The decline in employment in the United States reduced automobile sales dramatically. Approximately 4,000 dealerships closed around the country. In, 2013 approximately 15.5 million new cars were sold. In 2014, sales rose to over 16.5 million. Auto sales are expected to reach over 17 million units in 2015.
Automobile Dealership sales have rebounded since the recent recession. Gasoline Filing Stations are also included in this category. In proximity to the Subject Sites, major auto dealerships concentrations are located in Crystal Lake, McHenry, Elgin, and Barrington. Lake in the Hills could capture additional sales in this category on the Subject Sites as dealerships in Crystal Lake seek larger land sites to meet prototype dealership needs in the future.
All of the domestic auto dealerships are already located in the trade area including Ford, Lincoln, Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Ram, Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac and Buick. Some of the import auto dealerships already located in the trade area include Toyota, Nissan, Volkswagen, Honda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Kia, BMW, and Mazda.
Automobile Dealers are large sales tax generators and are likely to seek major incentives from any community. The addition of an automobile dealership would add additional revenues to the Village despite any type of sales tax incentive agreement which will be required. Auto dealers will require a sales tax incentive agreement in order to recoup the cost of construction of a dealership that can cost over $4.0 million plus the cost of the land. - We estimate that sales in this Automobile Dealership category excluding gasoline stations can rise to $127 million in 2019 and $143 million in 2024. We envision a truck dealership or one automobile dealership with multiple nameplates.
Lake in the Hills’ Retail Sales Lake in the Hills retail sales in 2014 stood at approximately $252 million. This included the Manufacturers and Agricultural and Extractives category. Sales rose from $212 million in 2008. Lake in the Hills market penetration amounted to 2.4 percent. We forecast that sales in 2019
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will rise to an estimated $308 million if our recommendations are implemented. Moreover, by 2024, we forecast sales to rise to an estimated $350 million.
RETAIL MARKET STRATEGY
The proximity of the Subject Sites to Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry and West Dundee restrict the types of retailers, restaurants and auto dealers that represent an opportunity. Lake in the Hills will need to provide an auto or truck dealer a sales tax incentives and other inducements to accelerate development. Some communities have provided sales tax rebates of up to 50 percent or more for the first several years to a certain sales benchmark. Many municipalities have provided sales tax incentives since they have concluded more auto dealers in the same place strengthen the auto dealer that's already there. The Subject Sites have the infrastructure in place to facilitate development of the shopping centers and automobile and truck dealerships over time. We have prepared a list of Target Tenants for the Subject Sites. The target tenants are identified in Table 2.10.
Table 2.10 TARGET TENANTS VILLAGE OF LAKE IN THE HILLS
General Merchandise Blains Farm & Fleet
Supermarkets and Specialty Grocery
Shop N’ Save Food 4 Less Fresh Farms Mariano’s Fresh Market Ultra Foods Standard Market Tony’s Finer Foods Independent Grocers
Restaurants Aurelio’ Pizza Blaze Pizza BurgerFi Craft Brewery Dunkin Donuts Firehouse Subs Meatheads Burgers & Fries Mooyah Burgers Naf Naf Grill
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Restaurants (continued) Olive Garden Red Lobster Red Mango Red Robin Smashburger Tilted Kilt Wingstop Yogurtland
Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliances American Sale Art Van Furniture Mattress Firm Sleepy’s The Tile Shop Value City Furniture
Building Materials and Hardware Menards (relocation)
Drug Stores Walgreens
Miscellaneous Retail Stores Kriser’s Pet Store The Corner Barkery
Health Clubs LA Fitness Planet Fitness
Auto Dealers Acura Audi Carmax Mini Cooper
Truck Dealers Arrow Truck Sales Coffman Truck Sales D & S Truck Center Fisher Crane Co. Great Lakes Equipment Sales Inc. JX Peterbilt
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Truck Dealers (continued)
Penske Runnion Equipment Company Ryder Trucks of Chicago Transportation Solutions & Equipment Inc. Source: Melaniphy & Associates, Inc.
Grocery-Anchored Shopping Center
Site A is an approximate 22 acre site in the southwest quadrant of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road across the street from Site C. The property should be developed with a grocery- anchored shopping center. An approximate 65,000 to 70,000 square foot grocery store should be targeted for the site. Some of the potential grocery store targets include Fresh Farms, Food 4 Less, Ultra Foods, Tony’s Finer Foods, Mariano’s Fresh Market, Shop ‘n Save, Standard Market, or a well-known independent grocer. The outlots should be developed with a Walgreens or CVS, banks, theme restaurant, fast casual restaurants and services.
Auto Dealership
Site B is a 22.3 acre site. There are several auto dealer nameplates that are not currently represented in proximity to Lake in Hills. There are several auto dealerships in Crystal Lake that will likely require larger sites in the future. The creation of an auto dealership and truck dealership node near the Hertz Car Sales center should be part of Lake in the Hills short- and long-range Retail Market Strategy. We envision the immediate market will support at least one multi-nameplate dealership on approximately 10 acres along IL Route 31. The site can accommodate two dealerships. The target dealerships include Acura, Audio, Mini Cooper, and Carmax. We have also identified several truck dealerships that represent an opportunity including Arrow Truck Sales, Penske, and others. They may require approximately 5 acres or more depending upon the operation
Big Box Power Center
Site C is an approximate 77.3 acre site in the southeast quadrant of IL Route 31 and Rakow Road. Site C represents the most desirable site to initiate a large retail development. We recommend a relocated Menards store or another big box anchor like Blains Farm & Fleet along with household furnishings stores, a health club, fuel center, bank, theme restaurant, fast casual restaurants, and miscellaneous stores. Parking should be allocated for approximately 5 spaces per thousand square feet of retail space.
The Lake in the Hills market can support approximately 250,000 square feet of retail facilities by 2024 based upon supply and demand.
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6348 N. Milwaukee Avenue # 198 Chicago, Illinois 60646-3744 Phone 773-467-1212 Facsimile 773-774-0454