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Westlife Development Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report CMP Target Price

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Westlife Development Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report CMP Target Price India Equity Research | Retail © March 17, 2021 Initiating Coverage Emkay Westlife Development Your success is our success Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report CMP Target Price Rs 518 Rs 600 as of (March 16, 2021) 12 months Still in the early days of QSR marathon Rating Upside BUY 15.8 % Our bullish investment thesis on Westlife Development (WLDL) rests on three pillars: 1) Change in Estimates Superior unit economics – about 30-40% higher revenue per store – relative to peers; EPS Chg FY21E/FY22E (%) -/- supported by value pricing and strategies aimed at increasing in-store visits and offering Target Price change (%) NA complementing menus. Recent initiatives on digital could provide a further fillip. 2) Target Period (Months) 12 Comparison with Domino’s highlights a 3x store roll-out potential – offering a long visibility Previous Reco NA into penetration-led growth. We expect mid-teen revenue growth for several years with an upside risk. 3) Our relative analysis of a peer at a similar scale throws a strong case for a Emkay vs Consensus 500bps upside in EBDITA margins. Higher unit economics should lead to industry-leading EPS Estimates ROEs as high upfront overheads get more corralled with scale. The pandemic has already FY21E FY22E reset the cost curve lower, commensurate with a 20% lower revenue. Emkay (5.1) 1.7 Net net, we expect revenue/EBDITA CAGRs of 10%/20% through FY24, and importantly, similar Consensus (5.1) 3.3 growth continuing well beyond that as well. ROE should see a sharp improvement to mid- Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 519 teens. We are initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a Jun’22E TP of Rs600, based on 32x Stock Details Jun-23E EV/EBITDA (backed by our long-term DCF analysis). Key risk: Delay in full unlocking may pose risk to our SSG recovery assumptions. Bloomberg Code WLDL IN . Powerful brand franchise with a long growth runway: McDonald’s leads global QSRs with 38k Face Value (Rs) 2 restaurants, and enjoys superior unit revenues vs. peers, thanks to its value proposition and wide Shares outstanding (mn) 156 portfolio/brand extensions. With full unlocking, WLDL will likely outperform, led by digital initiatives, 52 Week H/L 535 / 267 convenience channels and dine-in recovery. In addition, even as WLDL operates only in the South M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 81 / 1.11 and West (S&W) region, the region accounts for 65% of QSR revenues. Comparison with Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 3,24,762 Domino’s (~800 stores in S&W) highlights a 3x store expansion potential. WLDL’s expansion Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 2.1 approach has been disciplined (network scale up 50% in FY15-20) to limit store closures. However, rising profits/FCFs and attractive QSR outlook may drive an acceleration. Shareholding Pattern Dec '20 . Margins are suboptimal; expect strong gains with scale and cost reset: In the past five years, Promoters 59.1% WLDL’s operating margins expanded 700bps to 9%, driven by product mix changes and cost FIIs 9.6% efficiencies. Margins are still sub-optimal in spite of higher sales and gross profit per store vs. DIIs 20.5% peers. Comparison of overhead costs vs. peers and relative analysis of JUBI at similar scale throws a strong case of 500+bps margin expansion at higher revenue scale. Cost-structure reset Public and Others 10.9% in the pandemic has also been impressive, reaching pre-Covid-19 margins on 20% lower sales. Price Performance We forecast WLDL to reach mid-teen EBITDA margins by FY24 (+600bps gain over FY20-24E). (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M . Poised for sustainable growth and profitability turnaround; initiate with Buy: We estimate Absolute 13 10 28 51 WLDL to record sales/EBITDA growth of 10%/20% in FY20-24E, despite the Covid-19-induced disruption in FY21 (16% sales CAGR ex-Covid). We assume a full recovery in sales/store in Rel. to Nifty 17 1 - (7) FY22E and a 9% CAGR in FY22-24E. WLDL’s highly scalable franchise and improving profitability Relative price chart make it an attractive long-term bet. We value WLDL at 32x Jun-23E EBITDA, yielding a TP of Rs600. Faster store expansion is an upside risk: Our DCF assumptions w.r.t. expansion may be conservative at 32 stores/year over the next 20 years. Growing profits/FCFs may drive upsides. Assuming faster store additions at a 9% CAGR (last 10 years) will increase the fair value by 14%. Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Consumer Goods & Retail (Page 30) Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) (Rs mn) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E Source: Bloomberg Revenue 15,473 9,508 16,302 19,095 22,346 EBITDA 2,135 670 2,718 3,504 4,300 This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The EBITDA Margin (%) 13.8 7.0 16.7 18.4 19.2 following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation: APAT 94 (801) 270 611 1,003 Ashit Desai EPS (Rs) 0.6 (5.1) 1.7 3.9 6.4 [email protected] EPS (% chg) (56.1) (956.7) 0.0 126.6 64.2 +91 22 6612 1340 ROE (%) 1.6 (15.1) 5.4 11.3 16.1 P/E (x) 862.2 (100.6) 299.1 132.0 80.4 Devanshu Bansal EV/EBITDA (x) 37.9 121.5 29.7 22.9 18.3 [email protected] P/BV (x) 14.0 16.7 15.8 14.1 12.0 +91 22 6612 1385 Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. Westlife Development (WLDL IN) India Equity Research | Initiating Coverage Story in Charts Exhibit 1: McDonald’s commands superior unit revenues and a Exhibit 2: WLDL has highest unit revenues; but is underpenetrated much larger brand presence across markets vs market leader 38,695 24,104 18,838 17,020 18,703 50 50 60 3.5 39 46 47 150 40 42 50 2.6 3.0 31 40 2.5 30 100 19 30 2.0 20 15 17 9 8 20 1.2 1.2 1.5 10 0.8 10 50 100 0.7 11 1.0 0 0 28 0.5 23 13 14 KFC 0 0.0 JUBI WLDL Subway McDonald's KFC BK* Dominos Pizza Hut Plaza Connaught Burger King Burger Systemwide Sales (USDbn) Rev/Store (USDmn) -Store Count (BOX) FY20 India revenues (Rsbn)- LHS Revenue/Store (Rsmn)- RHS Source: Company, Emkay Research, *BK is Burger King Source: Company, Emkay Research, Technopak, Cogencis Exhibit 3: QSR franchises offer faster growth vs consumer goods Exhibit 4: Convenience channels have driven faster recovery post Covid-19 25 22 24 20 20 18 16 17 15 15 12 11 10 13 10 9 10 10 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 CAGR FY15-20 Consumer Staples JUBI WLDL, YoY growth (%) Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 5: WLDL unit revenue growth has been faster than peers Exhibit 6: WLDL unit metrics are attractive; offer scope for margin expansion Unit metrics BK WLDL JUBI 60 49 50 42 40 Rs mn FY19 FY20 FY19 FY20 FY19 FY20 38 34 35 38 40 29 29 Average Stores (#) 158 224 287 308 1,215 1,314 22 25 20 Revenue 40 38 49 50 29 29 Gross Profit 25 24 31 33 22 22 0 EBITDA 0.9 0.8 4.1 4.5 5.0 4.4 WLDL Burger King JUBI Restaurant EBITDA 3.4 2.9 7.1 7.2 NA NA FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20, Revenue/Store (Rsmn) Gross Block (total 25 25 35 28 10 11 stores) Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. March 17, 2021 | 2 Westlife Development (WLDL IN) India Equity Research | Initiating Coverage Exhibit 7: S&W has higher share of QSR outlets & revenues Exhibit 8: WLDL has ~3x expansion opportunity when compared to Dominos presence in S&W 70 65 1000 60 785 800 50 40 35 600 30 400 319 20 200 118 10 43 0 0 South and West India North and East India Stores (FY20 end) Cities (FY20 end) Domino's- South and West McDonald’s- South and West Chain market geographic revenue mix (%) Source: Emkay Research, Technopak Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 9: Margin gains have been impressive but still sub-optimal; Exhibit 10: Cash generation to see sharp improvement with higher should accelerate with structural cost savings & scale efficiencies margins 66.5 67.0 68.0 65.6 15.0 2.5 1.9 2.0 1.7 66.0 64.1 64.0 14.0 12.0 1.4 1.3 63.1 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 12.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 64.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 61.4 9.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 62.0 60.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 8.5 9.0 6.0 60.0 58.8 0.0 6.8 -0.5 5.1 5.0 3.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 58.0 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 2.0 -0.9 56.0 0.0 -1.5 -0.9 54.0 -3.0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY22E FY23E FY21E CFO (Rsbn) Capex (Rsbn) FCF (Rsbn) Gross Margins EBITDA margins*, (%) Source: Company, Emkay Research,*Pre-IndAS116 EBITDA margins Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 11: RoCE expected to see sharp improvement Exhibit 12: Valuations now appear reasonable vs JUBI 21.1 25.0 500 385 20.0 13.0 400 15.0 6.5 321 4.9 300 258 10.0 1.5 184 194 199 5.0 -2.8 -3.0 200 12111390 127 117 0.0 171 167 60 66 63 68 46 -5.0 -6.7 100 145 59 55 28 104 102 17 -10.0 0 70 45 45 -15.0 -1 -20.0 -13.8 -100 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Jun/16 Jun/17 Jun/18 Jun/19 Jun/20 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 FY23E FY21E FY22E Dec/16 Dec/17 Dec/18 Dec/19 Dec/20 Sep/16 Sep/17 Sep/18 Sep/19 Sep/20 WLDL RoCE (%) WLDL valuation premium to JUBI (%) Source: Company, Emkay Research,*Pre-IndAS116 comparable RoCE Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>.
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