Themes of Presentations

Glasgow - Past & Present

• Big trends James Arnott

• From indicators to insights Anne Scoular

• Integrated public health profile David Walsh & Bruce Whyte Themes of presentations

• What is improving? • What’s proving resistant to change? • What’s getting worse?

• Future trends and implications Big trends 1971 CENSUS

“Shipbuilding, heavy engineering, textile and chemical manufacturing predominated until recently … light engineering and electrical products now form one of the city’s most important industrial features …” FURTHERMORE …

“… large numbers of workers engaged in the distributive trades, the transport and communications industry, the manufacturing of food (including bread), drink and tobacco and of clothing and footwear …” NOT TO FORGET …

“… a considerable number of people in the city are engaged in professional and scientific services …” PERIOD OF CHANGE

• Decline of manufacturing … • … but improved quality of employment for those in work • Loss of population … • … but increased size of 25-44 age group • The city used to follow … • … now the city leads the conurbation 25-44 AGE GROUP

1981 25-44 2001 25-44 % change

Glasgow 23% 31% 35%

Rest of 26% 28% 8% Area Scotland 26% 29% 12% SOCIAL CLASS I&II

I&II 1981 I&II 2001 % Change

Glasgow 18% 38% +111%

Rest of 28% 37% +32% Area Scotland 28% 37% +32% OWNER-OCC

O-O 1981 O-O 2001 % Change

Glasgow 24% 49% +104%

Rest of 33% 65% +97% Area Scotland 35% 63% +80% INTERPRETATION

• Rapid change since 1980s involving a major period of adjustment • Closing the gap with some but not all national rates •Why? From indicators to insights from indicators to insight local context

• Parkhead: Glasgow in microcosm – 4 mines in central Parkhead – Forge 1837-1976 – Decline in heavy industry

• Regeneration efforts – 1957: ‘Comprehensive Development Area’

– 1976: GEAR (‘Glasgow Eastern Area Renewal’ Project)

– 1980s onwards: • Areas of Priority Treatment • Priority Partnership Areas • Social Inclusion Partnerships definition of ‘Parkhead’ local context

= community defined area relationship to PC sectors population estimates

Total population in Parkhead, 1981, 1991 and 2001

9,000 1981 8,000 1991 2001 7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000 Population 3,000

2,000

1,000

0 All ages <65 0-14 15-44 45+ health outcomes all cause mortality*

8000 5000 7000 4500 4000 6000 3500 5000 3000 Parkhead Parkhead 4000 NHSGG 2500 NHSGG 3000 Scotland 2000 Scotland 1500 2000 1000 1000 500 0 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 0 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 male female

*rate/100,000 person-years at risk (standardised to 2001 NHSGG population) ischaemic heart disease mortality*

2500 1400

1200 2000 1000

1500 Parkhead 800 Parkhead NHSGG NHSGG 600 1000 Scotland Scotland 400 500 200 0 0 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 male female

*rate/100,000 person-years at risk (standardised to 2001 NHSGG population) all cancer mortality*

2000 1000 1800 900 1600 800 1400 700 1200 600 Parkhead Parkhead 500 1000 NHSGG NHSGG 800 Scotland 400 Scotland 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 0 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 male female

*rate/100,000 person-years at risk (standardised to 2001 NHSGG population) all cancer incidence*

900 600 800 500 700 600 400 500 Parkhead Parkhead 300 400 NHSGG NHSGG Scotland Scotland 300 200 200 100 100 0 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 0 1980-82 1990-92 2000-02 male female

*rate/100,000 person-years at risk (standardised to European standard population) health determinants: environment commercial properties within community defined area

Property type Other premises Hostel/guest house Community centre/hall Advertising station Ground Store Betting offices/churches Other community resource Public house Workshop/factory/yard Office Shop

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Source: Glasgow City Council Financial Services, January 2005 Parkhead Cross Retail Profile

1 1 Food/convenience store 1 Take away 6 Clothing 1 Leisure Hairdresser 1 Newsagent Pharmacy 1 Furniture Dentist 2 2 Lawyer Flowers 2 2

Source: Parkhead Cross Economic Regeneration Project Final Report, 2002 retail environment retail environment trends in vacant & derelict land

1994

1999

2005 from this…. to this… or this ? conclusions • routine data applicable to socially defined ‘place’

• determinant data –surveys – COA level

• detailed health outcome data clearly show Parkhead’s health trajectory

• understanding pathways & interactions

• understanding lived experiences

• information for action acknowledgements

• Karen Lorenzetti NHSGG Tricia Richardson NHSGG Khalid Bashir NHSGG Sarah McCullough NHSGG Janice Scouller NHSGG

• Lorraine Tulloch Glasgow City Council Alan Grosvenor Glasgow City Council Diane McGregor Glasgow City Council Suzie Kemsell Glasgow City Council

• David Walsh Health Scotland Bruce Whyte Health Scotland

• Ian Henton Health Protection Scotland

• Parkhead Housing Association Parkhead Youth Project Parkhead Health Centre East End Partnership Integrated public health profile Areas of analysis

• Historical context • Behaviour • Population dynamics • Pregnancy & childbirth • Economy • Children’s health • Social environment • Health & function • Physical environment • Illness & disease Historical context/ Population dynamics Population

Glasgow's Population; 1801-2004 Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004)

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000 Estiamted Population 400,000 Local Gov Unitary Major city Districts Councils extensions 200,000 introduced introduced

0 1801 1811 1821 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Births Trends in Births and Births per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004 Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972) Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004)

35000 45 1920

1914 40 30000

1947 35

25000 1962 30

20000 25 BirthsBirths 20 15000

15 Births per 1,000 population 1,000 population per per Births Births 10000

5000 Births 5 Births per 1,000 population

0 0 1855 1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 Births & Deaths

Deaths and Births per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004 Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004) 45

15 Deaths per 1,000 population

Births per 1,000 population 5 Deaths per 1,000 population

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 1 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Infant deaths

Infant Deaths (under 1 year) per 1,000 births in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004 Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004)

250

196 200

Infant deaths (per 1,000 births), 1901 - Glasgow & selected English cities 150 Report of Medical Officer of Health of the City of Glasgow, 1901

250

100 199 200 187 188 Infant Deaths per 1,000 births per Deaths Infant

149 149 150 50

100 7.1

0 50 5 5 5 3 5 3 3 3 1 1 67 87 07 35 55 75 83 03 85 863 8 871 87 883 8 891 89 90 9 911 91 92 931 9 939 94 951 9 959 96 97 9 979 9 99 999 0 1 1859 1 1 1 1 1879 1 1 1 1 1899 1 1 1 1 1919 1 1927 1 1 1 1 1947 1 1 1 1 1967 1 1 1 1 1987 1 1995 1 2

0 Glasgow London Birmingham Liverpool Manchester Inequalities - 1901

Death rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts; 1901 Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health of the City of Glasgow 1901

45 40.4 40

25 20.6 20

15 8.3

Deaths per 1,000 population per 1,000 Deaths 10

w ill ll d w e e a d e x d s t s s d o h go o on ll re r lo on on ds on n n oo id t a oa l t are as est fiel ston w R s kvi st rst rbal u E nda de n asg llhead gs qu e o Cal W u l lvinside ou th Maryhill changin oc S n R Squa t Ro Wyn G ad G e t FloridaCross Hi ths ei x K n S uri d ses t D K n lah Govanhi ly Wood E o do La Ande arrowfiel lo wc Brow B ont B an o Strathbu nd R on C Por C Mou Bel M a L e d d nd n Andrew at a nd g St Enoch an Sq an Hutchesa St t d st ngbur idge ea r We Possilpark and Barnhill pri B igh S S nh H High St and Closes ds Bellgrove and Dennsitoun llokshields Kelvinhaugh and Sandyford Langside and el o ree hi P G ks ollo P Inequalities - 2001 Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised; 2000-2002; West of Scotland and Glasgow communities Source: NHS HS - Communtiy Health Profiles, 2004 (from GROS data)

1200

1000 965

800

600

428 400

200

e ld re n d w e e n vie od d lvin nd ire ds a d ow u a o e hire au h n h ly dg g to lbri k rs n mo rs t En is erwell c ri s s i y wla h tb a i ilng K er Lo W ver Scotland rath Ay t Ayrshi ha Hamilton ot n Gl Glasgow /M Eastw t mb Wes M I n S Clydesdale enfrewshire rth S w rn N Denn East Cu R Eas Drumchapel te & South A No & Levern Valleys & rsde ater and Ruthergle ie & Coa a e a e lasgo E ton Gr ng G la South East Glasgow Airdr ge d/Be South West Glasgowid n /WoodsidBr mbus Clydebank Paisley and iesla a n C Renfrew & West An Maryhill Community Inequalities - 2001 Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised; 2000-2002 Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from GROS data) 1600 1475

1400

1200

1000

800

600

350 400 Age standardiseddeath rate 100,000 per

200

d n n rt n x n n o o o rk m o rk on ca a d N rt a t nock rloch st Ibro a nock rkst n a P sha e nhead r ou le h lie P Ruchill Cal ssingt Cath B H nn g k Fulla w Scotla e Cla rmu - a r lma Kilmacolm t; Li E a gus To Hamiltonhill a Ca o P r D avie o g tf Fe Kinning Park S ln f Mi Cro Bearsden - K

Milngavie - Keystone; Dougalston Life expectancy

Expected future years of life at birth by gender for Glasgow; 1821-27 to 2001-03 Source: The Report of the Medical Officer for Health, Glasgow, 1925; ONS 2004

80 76.4

70 Males Females 69.1

60 52.2 50 48.4 37.7 40 36.6 32.6 34.1 35.2 30 30.9 Expected future years of life at birth birth at life of years future Expected

0 1821-27 1870-72 1881-90 1920-22 2001-2003 Life expectancy

Male Life Expectancy at Birth (years); West of Scotland Council Areas vs Scotland; 1991-1993 to 2001-2003 Source: Office for National Statistics 78

74 Gap between best and Gap worst = between 72 8.1 best and years worst = 6.5 70 years Life Expectancy at birth

66 1991-1993 1992-1994 1993-1995 1994-1996 1995-1997 1996-1998 1997-1999 1998-2000 1999-2001 2000-2002 2001-2003 Council

Scotland Glasgow City East Renfrewshire East Dunbartonshire Healthy Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy vs Healthy Life Expectancy* at Birth, Males , 1999-2000 Source: ISD Scotland

70 19.7 17.6 19.2 20.2 17.8 20.8 19.2 60 25.8 19.6 21.8 24.9 22.5

30 58.5 53.8 52.6 53.2 53.6 53.8 56.5 46.7 46.8 46.8 48.3 50.5 Life Expectancy at birth 20

d y e n it ire d tla C shire shire sh shire o w yr rk n rcly k wshire c o A a to e Ayrshire tonshire e S g t n r v nar fr s s a In a n la a L bar G E Renfrewshire n rth North South Ayrshire No South L East Re West Dunba East Du West of Scotland Council Area

HLE at birth Years of life with a LLI * defined as absence of Limiting Longterm Illness (LLI) Economy Children in workless households

% of dependent children living in households where no-one is in employment; 2001; West of Scotland and Glasgow communities Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from 2001 Census data)

50 50 47

40 37 33 33 33 29 30 28 23 23 24 24 22 23 20 21 21 20 18 17 18 16 16 14 12 11 10 6 7

d d e n e e d d y ll e e s l i l ire l ire e ir g d w w un n v lton yde lle pe ow oo avi rid h au i an a g o w g kel b sda mon rcl rglen erw rid l sgo sgo st h e rn o Va e h tb la a ch las t d L ve th t Wishaw Ayrsh a aw ni Scotla ly Ham o G m G n East ra In th St ast Kil C uth Ayrs M r Co Sh st E o & Cumbe East Ayrsh N Ea stern Gl & Dru & De So e ater h n arsden/Miln t Ea nk th West to rdri re a u e Be Glasgow GWest End ey and Levern Ai Sou eb So dg sl mbuslang & Ru a lyd Bri Pai C C Renfrew & West Renfrewshire Anniesland/ Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Community Children in workless households

% of dependent children living in households where no-one is in employment; 2001 Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest, and lowest, rates Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from 2001 Census data)

70 64 64 60 60 60 61 61 61 60 58 58

20 18

10 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 3 3 4

k k x ny c o S ck ls E nd ton oc NE ad d o a la s in loch n way l Ibr rb rk rd fno lo he ea rn o hin ar sington Ruchill n iltonhill h a eton Houston c Gif Al s ape w k G Scot Cla u m t; e h r lm idg ilma Kil o K To a a n; K A hill; Mearns mc Ham P D o Br - S; k - u n n r est e e D Easterhouse W d d Doonfo s nzi Milngavie - Barloch rsde Tra ar a e Le e B Broom; Kir B Unemployment

Unemployment claimant count expressed as percentage of working age population - West of Scotland local authority areas, 1992-2004 Source: NOMIS

14.0 Glasgow City

West 12.0 Dunbartonshire Inverclyde

East Ayrshire 10.0

North Ayrshire

8.0 North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire 6.0 Scotland

% of working age population 4.0 South Lanarkshire

South Ayrshire 2.0 East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Income support

% of population over 16 claiming Income Support; West of Scotland Councils, 2001 - 2003 Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (originally from DWP)

20 19.4 2001 2003

16 14.6 14.7

14 12.9 12.2 11.6 12 11.2 11.2 10.4 10 9.4

8 % of population 16+ 5.6 5.9 6

y e e e e e e t ir ir ir r ir and h h hir hire tl sh s s shi s lyde sh o r ks r k c n r yr r o Sc ew a A rt h Ay na nfr t an st a Inver ba L a rth Ay L n Glasgow Ci Re ou Renfrewshire h E h S t No t st u r Du a st E So No e East Dunbartonshire W Free school meals

Primary school pupils entitled to free school meals, by West of Scotland local authority, 1997-2004 Source: Scottish Executive Education Department

60.0 Glasgow City

West Dunbartonshire

50.0 North Ayrshire

Inverclyde

40.0 North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire 30.0 East Ayrshire

Scotland 20.0 South Lanarkshire

South Ayrshire 10.0 East Renfrewshire

East Dunbartonshire 0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 House Prices Trend

Average House Price, Glasgow City & Scotland 1993-2004 Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics

£120,000

£110,000

£100,000

£90,000

£80,000

£70,000

£60,000 Scotland £50,000 Glasgow City

£40,000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Social environment Lone parents

Lone parent households with dependent children, Glasgow & West of Scotland communities, 2001 Source: 2001 Census

60.0 53 49 50.0

41 40 40.0 37 37 34 31 29 29 30 30 30.0 28 28 28 26 25 24 25 21 22 22 20 20 20.0 18 13 14

10.0

% of all households with dependent children dependent with households all of % 0.0

l l d e e e w y n s d e ide ir nd ton el e e d n ow ow land oo avi r l idge ll E g gow ap t shire sh isha rshire a lan s sg ng esdale yr y V ergl w ch a l d Lomo ami W therw n h est l Sco astw H o verclyder a Glasgow m G E /Mi h A h A In W t ru Cly ast Kilb t M t Rut Sh N en Strathkelvin E ast Ayrshir eve r w as ou RenfrewE Cumbernauld E & sd S Nor te r st rie & Coatbr a sgo h a nd L re la Easternut Glas th Westnk Gla & D ide We a G G o u Aird S ba ods d/Be & buslang & So sley m an ai /Wo Bridgeton & Dennistoun sl P Clyde ll e Ca i ni yh n Renfrew r A Ma Lone parents

Lone parent households with dependent children Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest, and lowest, rates, 2001 Source: 2001 Census

80.0 70 70.0 61 61 61 62 62 59 59 59 59 60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0 25

20.0 9 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10.0 6 % of all households with dependent children dependent with households of all % 0.0

d n k n n s S c ny ck o tur W l an der n re st a rui ock van d ead wood ngto d fno k rnock l F se n o a h w a if eton E G si C lar Dul n g Gorba Scotl ; G mardi Cathcart umb ma e Ho il D C il e; Gl rid n; Town K g B Dalmar o Hamiltonhill Parkhe - Kes - K la Castlemilk E t n n Easterhou es de e Vil Drumchapel NE s pbriggs N sd ld ar o r u Trad e B ea rna Bish B e b m u C Education

Estimated new student participation rates in Higher Education, West of Scotland and Glasgow communities, 2001/02 - 2003/04 (annual average rate) Source: HESA

80 70 70 65

50 47 44 40 38 40 34 34 34 35 36 36 31 32 29 29 30 30 30 30 27 23 24 21 19 20 15 17

New student participation rates 12 10

d ll d e e n d e e d n d l ir re l ir ds r i aw u i a o ide n i lv lan h we h ilt r h a En e t rclyde sd ilb chapel tbridge erglen Valley e m omon wl st lngavie stwoo Wis a erna Ayrs e th L K i Sco m other b t Ha frews ha s Inv st We rathk Ea M Ru Clyd S uth Ayrshw St Ea d Ea r o o stern Glasgow Cum North Ayrsh t Ren te a h East Glasgow S sg E t a arsden/M g an e n Wes Grea Gl South West Glasgow Sou ey and Levern Airdrie and Co l nd is a sl'd/B busla e 'yhill/Woodside/N.GlasgowBridgeton and Dennistoun m Pa w i Clydebank and Dru e n M Ca nfr An Re Education

Trends in (estimated) new student participation rates in Higher Education, Selected West of Scotand communities, 1998/00 - 2001/03 (annual average rates) Source: HESA

80% Eastwood

Anniesland, 70% Bearsden and Milngavie Scotland 60% West of Scotland 50% Inverclyde

40% Motherwell

30% Eastern Glasgow New student participation rates 20% Bridgeton and Dennistoun

South West 10% Glasgow

Clydebank and 0% Drumchapel 1998/00 1999/01 2000/02 2001/03 Crime

All crimes per 10,000 population, Glasgow City & Scotland, 1997-2003 Source: Scottish Executive

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400 Glasgow 200 Scotland

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Crime

Crime rates (selected categories), Glasgow City, 1997-2003 Source: Scottish Executive 350

300

Fire-raising,vandalism etc 250

200 Drug Related Crime

150

Serious Violent Crime Rate per 10,000 population 100

50 Domestic Housebreaking

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Violent crime - offenders

Violent offenders per 1,000 population, Glasgow City, July 2002 - June 2005 Datazones with 10 highest rates vs. datazones with 10 lowest rates (over 3 years) Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police

120

100 100 88

78 80 76 77 72 72 66 67 68

Violent offenders per 1000 population 20

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 0

ill k ill n n s n n k n hill ds rn r h ie w r o nh n u ton artick lan Pa kston nsl rsto ysto ys Pa o Gova Calto e o rda P ayb ria rrow oryglen ee od ingst orda ew H T R Ro o K Jo J Jordanhill Newlands N Ga icto Cro Qu And V Polloksha htsw ig Kn Location of datazone (named after relevant electoral ward) Violent crime - victims

Victims of violent crime per 1,000 population, Glasgow City, July 2002 - June 2005 Datazones with 10 highest rates vs. datazones with 10 lowest rates (over 3 years) Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police

180 168

160 142 144 139 140 129 123 118 119 120 121 120

100

60 Victims per 1000 population 40

20 9 9 999 10 11 5 7 8 0

d k rk k s k d s s rs rs n a ar d nd art ton ton w ton i an noc P a c rtic an nslie n lan ers ys e shaw sha ys wlai rdanhill ndl ell P w ath Pa ndl d k o ingston o yndl C Ro ue ok Ro C Cowla Torygle J Hy rmu w toria Ne H Hy K a An Q ollo oll C Max Vic P P Location of datazone (named after relevant electoral ward) Fear of crime Fear of Crime - percentage of respondents stating they don’t feel safe walking in their neighbourhood alone after dark, West of Scotland council areas, 2003-04 Source: Scottish Household Survey

40% 35.6% 33.3% 35% 32.4% 32.9% 30.5% 30% 28.6% 26.5% 24.0% 25% 22.8% 21.7% 20.1% 20% 17.0%

15%

10%

d y e e e e n t ire ire ir ir ir ire ire ire a h h lyd l sh sh sh c nsh w ksh rs w nsh r ow Ci o e r yr y e Scot rt r a A A fr rto ve sg nf an n a In la ba e L e b G m outh Ayrshire East R m S R th North u st u D st Du Ea So North Lanarks Ea West Physical environment Overcrowding

Proportion of households classed as overcrowded, West of Scotland and Glasgow Communities, 2001 Source: Census/NHSHS Community profiles

35.0

29 30.0 26 25.0 21 22 22 21 20.0 19 16 17 14 15 15 15 15.0 14 14 12 12 10 % of households % 9 9 10 10 10 10.0 8 9 7 6 5.0

0.0

d e e e n y e l e r ld re r on e e ds d oo al u i le lt ll yd n n ow ow ow tland avi sh rg i a haw gow E g ilbride rshi e m V s rcl hap s sg sg lng esd y erna yrshi omondh a c la la Sco astw K b A L H n Wi atbridgem awla est G E Mi st lyd A ut r nve o h t G / th Ayrshire C th m Motherwell I ru W Strathkelvin u ast R r S w as N en Ea C E Renfrew & eve e & Sou Nor E rsd st g sgo a rie & C eat th West aGla Eastern Glas ide an rd nk & D r u l We sl ba G G & u Ai So South ods d/Be sley and L an amb ai /Wo Bridgeton & Dennistoun sl P Clyde ll e C i ni yh n Renfrew r A Ma House condition

Estimated numbers of properties with damp, condensation, mould, poor National Home Energy Rating (NHER), Greater Glasgow 2002 Source: SHCS

45000 41,000 40000 39,000

35000

30000 27,000

25000 22,500

20000

Number of properties Number 15000

10000

5000

0 Rising/penetrating damp Poor NHER Condensation Mould Proximity to Derelict Land

Proximity to Derelict Sites; % of people within 0-500m of any derelict site; 2004; West of Scotland Councils & Scotland From SNS web site; Original source: Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey 70 64.3

60 57

51.2 50

40 33.8 30.7 31.9 30 27.4 24.8 25 25.9 21.9 22.7 20

10 % of people within 0-500m of any derelict site % of people within 0-500m of

d e e ire re ire de ire ire an hir hi h y hir hire s s s rs s sh otl rk w y c a S Ayrsh n fre arton st n Invercl nfrewsh arton b a e b Glasgow City Re E R North A uth La South Ayrshire t Dun t Dun o North Lanark st S Eas e Eas W Behaviour Alcohol related mortality

Numbers of alcohol related deaths, NHS Greater Glasgow, 1980-2003 Principal ("underlying") and secondary ("contributing") causes of death Source: GRO(S)

600

500

400

300 Number of deathsNumber of deathsNumber of deathsNumber of deaths 200

100

0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Male Female Total Alcohol hospitalisations

Alcohol related & attributable hospital admissions by Glasgow "community", age-standardised rates, 1990/92 - 1999/01 Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland

3,000.0 Bridgeton & Dennistoun

Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow 2,500.0 South West Glasgow

South East Glasgow

2,000.0 Eastern Glasgow

Cambuslang & Rutherglen

1,500.0 Clydebank & Drumchapel

Greater Shawlands

1,000.0 Glasgow West End

Scotland Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop Age standardised rate per 100,000 500.0 Strathkelvin

Eastwood

0.0 Anniesl'd/Bearsdn/Milngavie 1990 - 1992 1993 - 1995 1996 - 1998 1999 - 2001 Alcohol hospitalisations

Alcohol related & attributable hospital admissions for West of Scotland small areas (with lowest & highest rates in 1999/2001), age-standardised rates, 1990/92 - 1999/01 Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland 4,500.0 Townhead Ayr - Harbour and W Town Centre 4,000.0 Tradeston; Gorbals Dalmarnock

3,500.0 Hamiltonhill Bridgeton E Ibrox 3,000.0 Govan Easterhouse W 2,500.0 Ferguslie Park Scotland Scotland Scotland Clarkston 2,000.0 Clarkston Hyndland; Dowanhill Hyndland; Dowanhill Lugton; Dunlop Lugton; Dunlop 1,500.0 1,500.0 Bearsden - Kessington Bearsden - Kessington Houston Houston Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop Age Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop Age Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop Age 1,000.0 MilngavieMilngavie -- Keystone;Keystone; DougalstonDougalston KilmacolmKilmacolm 500.0 CathcartCathcart BearsdenBearsden -- KilmardinnyKilmardinny Broom; Kirkhill; Mearns 0.0 Broom; Kirkhill; Mearns 1990 - 1992 1993 - 1995 1996 - 1998 1999 - 2001 Liver cirrhosis mortality

Liver cirrhosis mortality age standardised rates among men aged 15-74 years Scotland in context of maximum, minimum, and mean rates for 16 Western European countries Source: WHOSIS (Dec 2004)

100 ICD 6/7: A105 ICD8: A102 ICD9: B347 ICD10: K70, K73, K74 80

Greater Glasgow 60

Maximum 40 Rate per 100.000 population per year Rate per 100.000 population per Rate per 100.000 population per year year Rate per 100.000 population perRate per 100.000 population per Mean 20

Minimum

Scotland's rank: 11 11 10 12 11 1 0 10 9 5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year of death Smoking

Percentage of adults smoking, 1999/00 - 2003/04 Source: Scottish Household Survey

Glasgow City 5 Scotland

0 1999/2000 2001/2002 2003/2004 Sexually Transmitted Infections

Acute Sexually Transmitted Infection Rates, Greater Glasgow & Scotland Source: ISD Scotland

900.0

800.0

700.0

600.0

500.0 Crude rate per 100,000 15-64 year-olds Crude rate per 100,000 15-64 400.0

300.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Greater Glasgow Scotland Obesity

% of adults classed as obese (BMI>30), Greater Glasgow, 1995, 1998 & 2003 Source: Scottish Health Surveys

30 Males

25 Females 23.9

21.5 20

16.4 15 14.8

0 1995 1998 2003

Ages 16-64 Ages 16-64 Ages 16+ Travel

Travel to work/study by bicycle/foot and car, 2001 Source: 2001 Census

70 bike/foot car 61 60 58 59 59 59 60 56 57 54 55 52 50

40 40

30 28 25 23 23 21 22 20 19 20 20 19 20 15 % of population working/studying* 10

e e e e e e nd ire d ir ire a hir y hir hir h h hir sh s cl s shire s otl n r ws r ns ws c o yr e rk o e S rt A ve r a Ayrshire fr h In f n ba en en Glasgow City n R Nort R East Ay th La Du u South t st North Lanark as e So E W East Dunbart

* Excludes those working/studying at home Travel

Estimates of traffic volume in vehicle kilometres, 1993-2003 Source: SE - Scottish Transport Statistics 2004 3500.0 Glasgow City

3000.0 North Lanarkshire

South Lanarkshire

2500.0 Renfrewshire

East Ayrshire 2000.0

South Ayrshire

1500.0 North Ayrshire

Million Vehicle Kilometres Million Vehicle East Renfrewshire 1000.0 West Dunbartonshire

500.0 Inverclyde

East Dunbartonshire

0.0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Pregnancy & childbirth Smoking during pregnancy

% Maternal smoking at hospital booking, Glasgow & West of Scotland communities 2000-02 Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from ISD data)

45 43 39 40 38 36 33 34 35 32 32 30 30 31 29 29 29 30 27 27 27 28 25 25 25 25 23 21 21 19 20 % of women 16 15 9 10

e d n n e ll n od ds nd o ir e el o n ide ire al yde n e lley ow u p land avie r h l sh g o gow ot r st s lng ws omo st E y Va ni la Sc astw awla Kilb re L desd Hamilt A n Ayrshire WishawGlasgow E Mi h st y We t en G / a nf Cl Inverc st Motherw h s r S Strathkelvin e a ver D N Drumcha en e E Cumbernauld ow E e & t R South Ayrshire L Nort We & rsd s sg astern Glas n eat E to de ea r e si G We Gla South East Glasgow Airdrie ey& Coatbridgeand South dg od d/B & buslang & Ruthergl l ri w m is ydebank & an a B /Wo l sl re P ill C e nf Ca ni e yh n R r A Ma Community Smoking during pregnancy

% Maternal smoking at hospital booking, 2000-2002 Glasgow/West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from ISD data) 70 62 60 54 55 50 50 50 50 51 51 51 50

30 27

777 10 5 7 4 4 4 5 5

l d k m n h s l x y N ton c l to ton c S roo W W W le s s s lo d e W k l if d N l NE tlan k l u r Ibrb s ilk W e a a e o aco a o a oo NitshilNitshi us p FaifleF e p c lar m g B Mearn w o mmil a Penilee h apel NE S ssingtonGiffno u H - ; tswoos h tle h rk h C e Kil hth stle c a cha armunnock ie ter aas CCarmunnock ; Do v ig s PPark m e n a C rum ru n KKnig EEasterhou D DrumcD to ilnga ; Kirkhill ys Doonfoot; AllowayM m e Bearsden - K K roo - B vie a g iln M Smoking during pregnancy

% Maternal smoking at hospital booking, 1995-2004* Source: ISD Scotland

35.0

Scotland Greater Glasgow 30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

- 1 995 2 003 2 004

* 2004 data are provisional Smoking during pregnancy

% Maternal smoking at booking by deprivation, NHS Greater Glasgow 1995-2004* Source: ISD Scotland

50.0

45.0

Deprivation 40.0 Quintile

35.0 5 (most deprived) 30.0 4

25.0 3 20.0

2 15.0

10.0 1 (least deprived) 5.0

0.0 1995 2003 2004 * 2004 data are provisional Breastfeeding

% breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, West of Scotland and Glasgow communities 2000-2002 Source: NHSHS - Community Health Profiles (from ISD data)

60 57

50 50 46 48

38 40 36 34 32 33 33 31 31 29 30 28 26 26 26 24 25 23 23 21 21 22 19 20 20 18

d e w w n d y d e e w s d g a un l en e id re d an d pel lto lyde u l on r go n En tl ri sh a elvin t o asgow h rc na erg k s l c e h om yrshi wla ilngavie Sc G Wi Glasgo m nnisto Hami v Ayrshireber t L ewshir A a fr h Eastwood M rn Motherwell In Clydesdale Dru East Kilb ut Strath & Coatb & N & De Cum East Ayrshire & Ru Levern Vall East Glas e ste & North g So gow We k n st Ren s Ea n th West Glasgow e reater Sh la arsden/ dside u sla G G Airdri o ba u South /Be e dgeton So b d d isley and n Wo y Bri a ill/ Cl P Cam nfrew & W niesla aryh Re M An Community Breastfeeding

% breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, 2000-2002 Glasgow/West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from ISD data) 90

80 78 70 68 68 70 65 65 66 66 66 66

40 34

20 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 6 6 6

N E E k n y d e E W r o n hill a d e N ock a olm n lop in N se s l n P c i n m otland u rntyne u e r nst arloch lhe tickhill insi anhill c o a p a lie e ard il r lv elv w S h a s ; Du B H e K r idgeton C u tev m n Broo Pa e r ch g Kilma il o K Parkhead B terho m Dalm r S K t ; ast s u e - g le E r Drumchapel W F a Ea D en Lu d d in rs Milngavie - elv Hyndland; Do ea K B Breastfeeding

Breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, NHS Greater Glasgow, 1998-2004 Source: ISD Scotland

50.0

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0 % babies at 6-8 weeks breastfed %

20.0

15.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Greater Glasgow Scotland Note: 2004 figures are provisional Teenage pregnancy

Teenage Pregnancies (13-19) for selected West of Scotland Councils, 1991/92 - 2002/03 Source: ISD Scotland

7.0

6.0

Glasgow City 5.0 East Ayrshire

4.0 Scotland

South 3.0 Lanarkshire East Dunbartonshire 2.0 Rate per 100 women aged 13-19 East Renfrewshire

1.0

- 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03

* 2002/03 data are provisional Children Looked after Children

Looked after children - rate per 1000 0-17 year-olds, 2004 Source: Care Scotland

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0 Rate per 1,000 0-17 year-olds 1,000 per Rate 5.0

0.0

d e e e e n nd ir ir ire r re la a h h hi lyde hi hire t s shir s c rs s o w k rksh r y w c tons e a e e S r A fr a nfr Inv st n b e a Glasgow City n E Re u t R South Ayr North Ayrshire D s West of Scotl a E South Lanar North Lan East West Dunbartonshire Looked after Children

Looked after children - rate per 1000, three year rolling average, 1998 - 2004 Source: Care Scotland

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0 Rate per 1000 children aged0-15 children 1000 per Rate

5.0

0.0 1998 - 2000 1999 - 2001 2000 - 2002 2001 - 2003 2002 - 2004

Scotland West of Scotland Glasgow City Smoking, drinking & drug use

Smoking, alcohol & drug use among 13 and 15 year-olds in Greater Glasgow, 2002 Source: SALSUS

30 30 29

15 15 12

% of 13-15 year-olds % 11 10 7

0 Regular smoker drunk alcohol in past week taken drugs in past month

males females Dental health

Percentage of 5 year-olds with no decayed/missing/filled teeth ('zero caries'), Scotland & Greater Glasgow 1987/99 - 2003/04 Source: NDIP & SHBDEP

% with no dental caries with no dental % 20

0 1987/88 1989/90 1991/92 1993/94 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 Scotland Greater Glasgow Dental health

Dental decay: % of 5 year-old children with obvious/advanced decay (risk level 2-3) by LHCC area, Greater Glasgow 2003-04 Source: NDIP

80 74 74 70 68 70 70 68 64 65 62 59 58 60 58 52 48 50 43 40 37

w n n d s k n vie le n d un ide ow a gow E to eto g sgo kelvi s lan ban s sgow hapel la h a idg est aw nni oods mc G Camg rat h lyde Br Glas u r Eastwood t W C e h Gl W t r e S w D t ll D at i Gt S yh re rsden/Milng sgo astern Glasgow Nor r G a la E th Wes G Ma South East Gla Sou

Anniesland/Be Health & function Adults unable to work due to illness/disability

Percentage of adults unable to work due to illness/disability, Glasgow/West of Scotland communities, 2000 Source: NHSHS Community Profiles/DWP 30

25 25 24

20 21 20 17 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 15 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 10 8

5 5 5

d d e e w w vie de ir ey on de ow un oo on hire uld nds go tland elvin End ly rglen apel ha s o w ilbri k t la Vall e h asg K th om erna amilt c lasgow Sc t L Ayrs b aw H m Wis Gl Gla Milnga East ra Wes ern nverc oatbridg G as Clydesdale Sh v I MotherwellRuth ru C t St um r D rn en/ E East C ow e & N d South Ayrshire t Renfrewsh North Ayrshireg te Le & Wes d de es las rea nk East i ears irdrie & uth B G G o geton & Dennisto lang and South EastA Glasgow S ley an deba rid nd/ s us y la b l WoodsB Pai C ies am C Renfrew & W Ann Maryhill/ Community Adults unable to work due to illness/disability

% of adults unable to work due to illness/disability, 2000 Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHS HS - NHSHS Community Profiles/DWP 60

49 50 44 42 40 37 35 32 32 33 31 32 30

11 10 4 4 3 3 3 3 444 4

s n u e l n h ny ds N W S il E loch R n d k n tland r ; Ibrox il tyn ad to alton ear a h rdin rn e ltonh e C co M g a atla m a i S len Fruin B r Giffnock O le C rkh m G - u ilm Clarkston a a hill; K ge; Dullatur Parkhea P H Bridg Dalmarnock k nsb - la als; Cast astlehill; Thor le rb C lngavie e en o - i ld Vil M H rsd u Hyndland; Dowanhill a e na Broom; Kir B earsden ntown; G B so Cumber

Hutche Adults unable to work due to illness/disability

Adults unable to work due to illness/disability Incapacity benefit/severe disability allowance claimants, 2000-2004 Source: DWP

40.0

35.0 Glasgow Scotland 30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0 Claimants as % of working age population Claimants as % of working 5.0

0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Illness & disease Heart disease mortality

Ischaemic Heart Disease: age standardised death rates, males (15-74) Scotland and large Health Boards, 1976-2001 Source: GRO(S)

500

Greater Glasgow

400

Scotland

300

Tayside

200

Lothian Rateper 100,00 populationg per year per populationg 100,00 Rateper 100

Grampian

7 8 9 0 1 2 3 5 6 6 7 9 0 1 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 0 97 98 98 00 1976 19 19 1 19 19 1 198 1984 1 198 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19 19 1998 19 20 2 Diabetes

Admissions to hospital for diabetes by Glasgow "community", age-standardised rates, 1991/93 - 2000/02 Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland

1,400.0 Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Greater Shawlands 1,200.0 Strathkelvin

South East Glasgow 1,000.0 Bridgeton & Dennistoun

Eastern Glasgow 800.0 Cambuslang & Rutherglen

600.0 Scotland

Glasgow West End

400.0 Eastwood

Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop 100,000 per rate standardised Age Clydebank & Drumchapel

200.0 South West Glasgow

Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngav ie 0.0 1991 - 1993 1994 - 1996 1997 - 1999 2000 - 2002 Deliberate self harm

Hospital admissions for deliberate self harm, average annual age-standardised rates, 2000-2002, Glasgow & West of Scotland communities Source: ISD Scotland/NHSHS Community Profiles

600.0

500.0

400.0

300.0

200.0

100.0

age standardised rates per 100,000 population 100,000 per rates age standardised 0.0

e e d n s l y n d w ire nd w d el e u w el re ire ri oo ll p ow tland b avi w go sh sgo shire a sh il a V rshi r sg K lng st las esdale wlan yr Sco a d rew Lomo Gl a therw atbridge n nnisto Wisha Ay Mi E Hamilto G t o o r e Ay / t Cly nf Inverclyde Sh M th A th st ast Strathkelvin e as Drumcha N Gla E en Cumbernauld r ou eve or Ea & R E te S & N rsd st h astern Glasgowa e a th Wes E rie & C nd L id We Glasgow West End Gre rd a ou Sout Ai y ds S buslang & Rutherglen e d/Be & sl an m Bridgeton & D lydebank sl rew Pai C ill/Woo e Ca nf h ni e n R A Mary Summary What’s getting better?

• Life expectancy increasing overall • Downward trends in: – smoking – unemployment – teenage pregnancies – some crimes – dental health of children – breastfeeding – some specific causes of death • Improvements in some aspects of housing • More entrants to higher education What’s proving resistant to change?

• Some behaviours e.g. – dental health of children – breastfeeding • Many features of the circumstances in which people live e.g. – Poverty/low income – Looked after children • Levels of disability – adults unable to work – healthy life expectancy What’s getting worse?

• Alcohol related illness • Obesity levels • Sexually transmitted disease • Traffic levels • Violent crime • Inequalities in many health related areas Glasgow - Past & Present

• Big trends James Arnott

• From indicators to insights Anne Scoular

• Integrated public health profile David Walsh & Bruce Whyte Glasgow - Future Population projections

Projected Population Changes in Scotland, 2002- 2018, Scotland and West of Scotland Local Authorities Source: GRO(S)

5.8 East Renfrewshire

-2.2 North Lanarkshire

-2.5 South Lanarkshire

-5.8 East Dunbartonshire

-6.1 South Ayrshire

-6.9 North Ayrshire

-7.8 West Dunbartonshire

-7.8 East Ayrshire

-8.2 Renfrewshire

-11.3 Inverclyde

-5.3 Glasgow City

-2.4 SCOTLAND

-14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 % Change in overall population Population projections

Population Projections for Glasgow, all persons by age band, 2002 vs 2018 (Source: GROS) 160

2002 2018 137 140 133

119 120 116 112

100 95

80 76 74 66 Thousands

60 54

40 37 40 34 31

0 0-4 5-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 & over Age Group Dependency ratios

Dependency Ratio Projections for Scotland and WoS Councils, 2002 and 2018 Source: derived from GROS data

100% 2002 2018 90% 90% 84% 83%

80% 78% 78% 78% 74% 75% 75% 72% 72% 69% 69% 70% 67% 68% 66% 66% 64% 64% 64% 63% 61% 60% 58% 57% Dependency Ratio (%) Ratio Dependency

50%

40%

y e e e it re r ire hi hire h C hi s s shir s ns n r o yrshir gow narkshire A rto Ay s a art Inverclyde ast ba rth SCOTLAND Gla nb Renfrew Renfrew o u E un N D st D South Ayrshire t a North LanarkshireSouth L E Wes East Single person households

Projected change in % of single adult households, West of Scotland Councils, 2002 vs 2016 Source: GRO(S)

60% 2002 2016 49% 50%

42% 42% 41% 42% 39% 39% 40% 37% 38% 38% 35% 33% 35% 34% 35% 31% 32% 31% 31% 32% 29% 30% 30% 26% 25%

20%

10%

y e e e nd t ire ire re re ire r ire la Ci h hi hi lyde t sh rshir s sh w ws rksh w co ton S re r Ay Ayr na Ayrshi re sgo nf t h a h nf artonshir Inverc a e ba as t Lanarks e b Gl L R un E ou th h Nort un st R S D D ou a st Nort E a S est E W Lone parent households

Projected change in lone parent households West of Scotland councils, 2002 vs. 2016 Source: Register General Office of Scotland

60%

2002 2016 50% 48%

41% 39% 40% 37% 36% 37% 33% 33% 33% 31% 29% 29% 30% 27% 27% 24% 25% 23% 23% 22% 20% 21% 20% 20% 14% 14% % of all households% with children 10%

y e e e e e it ir ir r ire ir ire sh sh hi sh w C w yr w nsh cotland o arks arkshir o S re A n nf artonshire st an Inverclyde art th Ayrsh asg e b a L b r Gl R Renfre o un E h th La un N st D South Ayrshire D a E Sout Nor East West Traffic Growth

Background traffic growth from 2001, Scotland & Glasgow* Source: Scottish Executive

% growth from 2001 10

5 Scotland

Glasgow City

0 2001 2006 2011 2021

* all traffic originating from Glasgow City Alcohol

Alcohol related mortality, Greater Glasgow: deaths 1980-2003 and projections 2004-2027 Source: GRO(S)/NHSHS

1200

1000

800

600

400 Number/projected no. of deathsNumber/projected no. of deaths

200

6 2 0 6 4 0 82 84 90 96 98 04 10 12 18 24 26 9 9 98 9 99 9 9 00 0 00 0 0 01 0 02 0 0 1980 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1994 1 1 2 2002 2 2 2008 2 2 2 2016 2 2 2022 2 2 Life expectancy

Male Life Expectancy at Birth (years); West of Scotland Council Areas vs Scotland; Trend: 1991-1993 to 2001-2003; Projections: 2002-2004 to 2011-2013 Source: Office for National Statistics & Health Scotland 82.0

80.2 80.0

78.0 77.2

75.6 76.0

73.5 74.0

72.0

Life Expectancy at birth 70.2 70.0 69.1

68.0

66.0 1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Council

Scotland Glasgow City East Dunbartonshire