1968 Paris, France
1969 Hakone, Japan
I I SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL I I VOLUME 23 . NUMBER 4 . DECEMBER 1969 I 230 PARK AVENUE· NEW YORK, N.Y. 10017 I ttBASIC RESEARCH IN THE SCIENCES OF BEHAVIOR": I ABRIDGEMENT OF A CHAPTER IN THE REPORT BY THE I BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES -SURVEY COMMITTEE* SCIENCE has a dual function. It serves man's search for important practical implications, which will be men· I the tools he needs in order to cope with his environ tioned. But the principal purpose of the chapter is to ment; at the same time it satisfies his strong urge to illustrate how the application of scientific method to explore and understand the world around him-an human affairs can reveal underlying order in the midst I urge that in our time has taken man to the moon. of superficial randomness and complexity-to show that Scientists, in justifying the claims they place on society man is a part of nature, not just a contingent intruder for support of their work, quite understandably stress into an otherwise lawful world. I primarily the benefits that can be derived from the application of scientific knowledge to the problems of WHAT CAN MAN REMEMBER? I society. But it would misrepresent science as a whole and its human significance to put exclusive emphasis How much can a man hold in memory for a short on application, and to ignore the curiosity and intel time, without painstaking "memorization"? The answer I lectual drive that provide a major part of the fascina -which is surprisingly consistent for many different tion of science for scientist and layman alike. Indeed kinds of tasks and quite consistent among different per man must eat and be clothed. But he needs also to ex sons-is that he can retain in short-term memory about I plore, to understand, to perceive, and to admire the seven "chunks" of information, a chunk being any unit beauty and intricate construction of the natural phe of information that is thoroughly familiar to him, such nomena around him. as a number, a familiar word, or the name of a mend. I The behavioral sciences share with the physical and This limit of seven chunks of immediate retention ex biological sciences this dual concern for application plains some familiar everyday phenomena, for example, and understanding, for mastering phenomena and that most persons can-though not easily-keep in mind I standing in wonder of them. In this chapter some ex a phone number from the time they look it up to the amples of lawfulness and pattern in human and social time they dial it. It also explains the "magic" in certain I phenomena will be given. Some of these examples have memory tricks; for example, by recoding data, informa tion can be compressed into fewer chunks, and thus • The report, The Behavioral and Social Sciences: Outlook and Needs, was published by the National Academy of Sciences (in a more items retained. The digit sequence 1, 4, 9, 2 de I limited edition, copyright by the National Academy of Sciences) on creases from four chunks to one if it is recognized as October 27, 1969 and commercially by Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood 1492, the year Columbus discovered America. It is now Cliffs, New Jersey, on December 10, 1969 (see page 59 infra). The Survey was jointly sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences-Na fairly well-established that unusual feats of short-term I tional Research Council and the Social Science Research Council, and memory depend primarily on mastery of such recoding conducted by a central planning committee, responsible for prepara techniques, rather than on highly special individual tion of the report. On behalf of the SSRC the report was reviewed "talents." I by members of its Committee on Problems and Policy, which expresserl particular interest in the content of Chapter 4, here presented in Performance of many tasks in daily life is limited by abridged fonn (with permission of the publisher). this capacity of short-term memory. It is the main limit I 49 I light of present evidence it appears that there are not. have supervised some 2,000 parolees. In this century, The modem school of structural linguistics has made observation of the operation of the penal system led great strides toward constructing general, formal theo sociologists to ask whether the probability that a parole ries of grammar that would help explain such universals, would be successful could be predicted from the char to the extent that they exist. To complete the circle, acteristics and histories of prisoners. Correct prediction advances in structural linguistics have given new impetus would test the validity of theories of the motivation of to the psychological study of language behavior, so that criminals. The prediction schemes that have resulted today we have the rudiments of description of the from asking these questions not only have contributed "grammar" used by a child during his first months of to basic sociological knowledge, but also have led to the speech and some predictions about what people remem development of practical parole-prediction techniques ber from sentences that are read to them. that are part of the administration of parole systems in many jurisdictions today. A vast body of social science research rests on the FREE TRADE IN IDEAS data of the decennial census, an institution created for A number of the examples cited have shown how the purely pragmatic purpose of allocating representa curiosity in exploring striking or puzzling phenomena tives to the Congress. There is no end to such examples. has led social scientists to deeper understanding of mat The lesson of the examples is that the basic and the ters of considerable practical importance. As in inter applied components of research-properly construed national exchange, this kind of trade in ideas between do not compete but, rather, reinforce each other. Good basic and applied science flows both ways. Some of the basic research, leading to answers to fundamental ques good ideas for basic research arise from the most im tions, soon finds practical applications. Thoughtful at mediate and practical kind of inquiries. The roots of the tention to the world of practical problems raises basic study of short-term memory, discussed earlier, lie partly research questions of the most challenging kind. The in the need during World War II to improve human everyday world provides the scientist with an ever performance of vigilance tasks, such as watching air renewing source of fresh research problems, while funda defense radar scopes. In economics many research prob mental inquiry provides him with a stream of ideas to lems have always been drawn from the need of govern apply to the problems of the world. ments to fix policies for raising revenues, maintaining Any basic science has an inner logic of its own, which employment, or modifying tariffs. for considerable periods of time guides inquiry, defines A striking example of this reverse flow is provided problems, and discloses opportunities. This inner logic by practices in parole and parole prediction. John does not imply irrelevance to the practical world; it Augustus, a Boston cobbler, in 1841 volunteered to may, however, imply the need for patience to allow the assist offenders if the court would release them to his science to unravel its internal puzzles without demand care. Before his death, he and his friends are said to ing that relevance always be instant or direct.
LINKAGE OF NATIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELS: PROJECT uLINK," SPONSORED BY THE COMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC STABILITY by Bert G. Hickman •
ECONOMETRIC model building is a flourishing enter metric models have subsequently grown apace with the prise today throughout the Western world and in Japan. progress of social accounting, statistical theory, and com Pioneered in the 1930's by Jan Tinbergen and in the puter technology. This development has been power United States beginning in the early 1940's by Lawrence fully abetted by the growing realization that structural R. Klein, the size and complexity of national econo- econometric models have great utility in studying the dynamic properties of the economy, in forecasting appli • The author is Professor of Economics at Stanford University. He cations, and in policy analyses. has been a member of the Committee on Economic Stability since its inception in 1959 and its chairman since 1962. The other members of the committee are Martin Bronfenbrenner, Carnegie-Mellon Univer vania; Franco Modigliani, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; sity; James Duesenberry, Harvard University; Otto Eckstein, Harvard Geoffrey H. Moore, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Arthur Okun, University; R. A. Gordon, University of California, Berkeley; Zvi Gri Brookings Institution; Rudolf R. Rhomberg, International Monetary liches, Harvard University; Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsyl- Fund; Charles L. Schultze, University of Maryland; staff, Paul Webbink.
54 VOLUME 23, NUMBER 4 I GENESIS OF PROJECT LINK and supplemental funds from the Japan Economic Re search Center and the Belgian National Science Foun I In 1968 the Council's Committee on Economic Sta dation. The committee hopes that the basis of support bility concluded that the time had come for an inter may be broadened even further during the coming year. national effort to forge links between national econo I metric models. The feasibility of such a project was PURPOSES OF THE PROJECT examined at a planning conference held at Stanford Uni I versity under the auspices of the committee on July The aim of the project is to augment radically our 8-9, 1968. Participants in this planning conference factual knowledge of the nature and strength of the included R. A. Gordon, Bert G. Hickman, Lawrence international economic relationships which bind in I R. Klein, and Rudolf R. Rhomberg-representing the dividual countries into an effective world economy and committee-and R. J. Ball, London Graduate School of provide the channels for the propagation of stabilizing Business Studies; Hidekazu Eguchi, Bank of Japan; and destabilizing influences between countries. Atten I John A. Sawyer, University of Toronto; Petrus J. Ver tion is being concentrated initially on developing a doorn, Netherlands Central Planning Bureau; Jean world trade model to link the national models, but I Waelbroeck, Free University of Brussels; and Tsunehiko capital flows will also be emphasized. 'Watanabe, Kyoto University. The group decided that The project will contribute substantially to basic the time was indeed ripe for an attempt to establish the knowledge about the structure of international trade I framework of a world model by integrating the research and the interrelationships between the various national efforts of the various model-building groups. Pledges of economies and regions. In the present state of knowl cooperation were obtained from all participants to im edge an econometric model for a particular nation or I plement initial efforts to guide research toward a uni region may explain imports endogenously but must form breakdown of import equations in the various accept the volume of world trade and exports as exoge models. Meanwhile, the Committee on Economic Sta nous. Experience has shown that the inability to make I bility agreed to draft a research proposal and to recom accurate exogenous predictions of export demand is mend that the Council seek financial support for a one of the major sources of error in forecasting domestic I realistic program. activity in many national models, particularly in the The project is currently planned for a three-year case of economies heavily dependent on foreign trade. period beginning in 1969. Research is proceeding at Moreover, for a large industrial country with a sub I each participating center, but provision is made for stantial share in world trade, such as the United States, coordinating the efforts of the several centers at fre a national model cannot now be used to estimate the quent intervals. Mr. Klein is serving as Project Coordi feedback effect on the country's own exports and do I nator, and the Coordinating Center at the University mestic activity, of the impact of a change in its import of Pennsylvania serves as central repository for the demand on activity levels abroad. associated models and data bank and keeps participants Development of a world trade model, linking the I informed about project research, meeting plans, and various national models, will lead to many important administrative affairs. Regional working teams in North applications. The immediate relevance of the project I America and Japan (under the chairmanship of Mr. to the study of balance-of-payments problems and poli Rhomberg) and in Western Europe (chaired by Mr. cies, both in a national and world context, is self-evident. Ball) will meet once a year. An executive committee The project will also permit systematic study of the I Messrs. Hickman (chairman), Gordon, Klein, and processes of international transmission of stabilizing Rhomberg-will oversee the general course of the proj and destabilizing forces, and of the processes by which ect from the vantage point of semiannual meetings. individual economies adjust to disturbances originating I Finally, there is to be an annual working session of one abroad. It will facilitate quantitative study of the trade or two weeks at which all participating research centers offs between the various objectives of economic policy will be represented. At each such session the work of full employment, growth, price stability, balance-of I the preceding year is to be reviewed and assimilated, payments and monetary equilibrium--on both national and research plans are to be formulated on a cooperative and international levels. All these applications will be I basis for the coming year. In keeping with the cooper enhanced by the eventual integration of international ative international spirit of the entire enterprise, finan capital flows into the system, although much will be cial support has been forthcoming from several sources, learned at an earlier stage from the trade model alone. I with principal contributions from the International Even the preparatory work of constructing value, Monetary Fund and the National Science Foundation, quantity, and price series for each country's imports, I DECEMBER 1969 55 I I classified according to a uniform system, will be of sub demand pressure, c.i.f. - f.o.b. valuations, etc.)," dis stantial importance. This is a data base that does not cussed by Mr. Ball. yet exist although the basic constituents are available, Two papers were presented on the third day: "A I and the project will serve economic research by provid Survey of Models from Europe and the United King ing a central, standardized collection of trade statistics dom," by Mr. Ball, discussed by Mr. Gordon, and ready for econometric analysis. "International Comparison of Existing Models," by 1 Messrs. Eguchi, Moriguchi, and Watanabe, discussed by Mr. Klein. FIRST ANNUAL WORLD MEETING I The fourth morning was devoted to reports by Mr. The first world meeting of Project LINK was held Klein on "Import Equations for the U.S. Model," dis in Hakone, Japan on September 16-20, 1969, with the cussed by Mr. Taplin, and by Mr. Krelle on "An Econo I cosponsorship of the Japan Economic Research Center. metric Model of West Germany," discussed by Mr. The participants included 24 econometricians from Watanabe. In the afternoon an open discussion on im eight countries and two international organizations. In proving national models for Project LINK was led by 1 addition to the participants in the July 1968 planning Mr. Hickman. meeting (excepting Mr. Sawyer), the sessions were at The conference concluded with an open discussion of tended by Akihiro Amano and Yoichi Shinkai, Osaka research plans for the coming year, led by Mr. Gordon. 1 University; John Helliwell, University of British Columbia; Shinichi Ichimura, Chikashi Moriguchi, and PLANS FOR 1970 I Masahiro Tatemoto, Kyoto University; Lars Jacobsson, National Institute of Economic Research, Sweden; Various approaches to the problems of building a Irving B. Kravis, University of Pennsylvania; Wilhelm world trade model to link national models were dis 1 Krelle, Bonn University; B. Marin-Curtoud, United cussed at the Hakone meeting. Research using several Nations Conference on Trade and Development; Saburo of these approaches will proceed during the coming year. Okita, Japan Economic Research Center; Shuntaro The principal efforts will be devoted to (1) readying I Shishido, Economic Planning Agency, Government of the national models for linkage through trade flows, (2) Japan; Grant B. Taplin, International Monetary Fund; fashioning rudimentary models for developed and de Tadao Uchida, Tokyo University; and Terrence Colvin, veloping countries and regions not already covered by I Washington, D.C., rapporteur. existing models, (3) developing computational methods The first day was devoted to the general framework for obtaining consistent solutions to the set of national 1 of model linkage. Three papers were presented, each models with endogenous trade flows, (4) preparing a followed by remarks by an assigned discussant and gen world trade matrix relating merchandise flows among eral discussion by the entire group: "An Overall Ap the countries and regions delimited in the project, (5) 1 proach to a Model of World Trade," by Mr. Rhomberg, experimenting with bilateral linkages between the discussed by Mr. Hickman; "The Methodology of United States and Canada and the United States and International Linkage," by Mr. Waelbroeck, discussed Japan, in which capital flows would be included along by Mr. Verdoorn; "Models of Developing Countries and with trade flows. Their Place in a World Trade Model," by Mr. Marin Each participating research center will deposit its Curtoud, discussed by Mr. Ichimura. model, data bank, and solution program at the Coordi On the second day Mr. Klein first discussed the nating Center during the next few months. This will organization of Project LINK and the conceptual basis greatly facilitate the development of solution methods of the model. Mr. Helliwell then reported on "An Ex for the world model in the near future, and will provide periment in International Linkage: Canada and the a central computational facility for the eventual prepara U.S.A."; Mr. Rhomberg led the discussion of this report. tion of consistent world trade forecasts and simulation Attention was next directed to specific technical ques studies. tions of basic importance to the group effort, in papers The next world working session will be held in by Mr. Kravis (joint with Robert E. Lipsey of Queens London in September 1970. The papers prepared for College, City University of New York) on "The Con that session will probably be published as the first vol struction of Price Indexes and Other Data Problems in ume to result from Project LINK, and some of them International Trade," discussed by Mr. Wae1broeck. will be proposed for delivery at the World Congress of and by Mr. Taplin on "Special Problems in Building the Econometric Society, to be held in Cambridge, a World Trade Model (commodity groups, prices, England, September 8-14, 1970.
56 VOLUME 23, NUMBER 4 1970 London, UK
9ÿ0 Iÿ ÿ
,'.P ÿ4 Tatemoto)
Sÿad.eÿ 10o30 "ÿ N.ÿ.O ¢OFFZE "°0], ÿ i2.30 (yo K LUNCH (3"° WaelbroeQk) Cÿ<° So t 3, 'ÿ'ÿ- 6,,°0 TSA Zÿ=,O °° 5 ":'%• 0% vÿ "ÿ"ÿI ¢ÿii"l'.T o- O=IT % e ÿ ÿ 0ÿ.ÿ = = =. ,7 .loO ÿ 12ÿ) pÿ,mo Consg'£uctieÿo and Use oÿ:ÿ tLe Tra6e ?H,xt;[ic.es @,:ÿG+ Taplii)o ea% g / (S,ÿ W#_;e ]b'pÿs,:ÿc;: } W ÿ g X g :H D )ÿ R g E {gÿai'rÿn : R ° J ÿ ÿal 21) 1]. ÿ0 o-- 22 ,ÿ %= "p =ÿ° % ° =. =o Tÿ ]!/£!15.%_££... }i ?_}!,£!{ A b ÿ I a L :[ [[f. ÿ,ÿ?. 8.,ÿ ;a, 4, o ÿ So 3o ,;ÿ=,, so o1AS:1ÿ££{9£L,!i,S.]kt:!bu,ÿ;==_x!, 1971 Newport, RI, USA SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL VOLUME 25 . NUMBER 4 . DECEMBER 1971 230 PARK AVENUE· NEW YORK, N.Y. 10017 SIMON KUZNETS, RECIPIENT OF 1971 NOBEL MEMORIAL PRIZE IN ECONOMIC SCIENCE, DIRECTED THE PROGRAM OF THE COUNCIL'S COMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1949-68 by Palll TVebbink * ANNOUNCDIENT on October 15 of the award of the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science to Simon Kumets was particularly gratifying to members of the Council. The congTatulations that they extend to him are combined with pride in its association with his career over many years. He was a Research Fellow of the Council in 1925-26, the first year of the Council's re search fellowship progTam, devoting himself to research on secular movements in production and prices. For six years, 1938-43, he was a member of the Council's board of directors, designated by the American Economic Asso ciation, and thenceforth continued to participate in vari ous Council activities. His major contribution was as chairman of the Council's Committee on Economic Growth throughout its 20 years. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in its award to Simon Kumets cited "his empirically founded inter pretation of economic growth which has led to a new and deepened insight into the economic and social struc ture and process of development," and stated that "more than any other scientist he has illuminated with facts and explained through analysis-economic growth from the middle of the last century." A substantial part of these contributions was developed in collaboration with and with the support of the Committee on Economic Growth, which had its origins in a memorandum that he submitted to the Council in 1948. That memoran dum proposed appointment of a committee to explore • The author, who retired as Vice-President of the Social Science SIMO;'; KUZ:'olETS Research Council on December 31, 19iO, was closely associated with possible directions of the study of economic growth, "to the work of its Committees 011 Economic Growth and 011 the Ecollom) of China. establish how fruitful empirical study of economic 41 Soviet Union, 'Vest Germany, Italy, and France, have Communist Chinese, their foreign traders seem to have had in trading with the Chinese. developed considerable professional expertise. Is trade Rather than attempt a meaningful summary of some unique, or have the legal experts fared better domes of the substantive findings presented in the papers, it tically than has been thought? At least, has a compar seems more appropriate here to raise some questions able set of "legal experts" developed in domestic trade that were suggested by the discussions. Why is it that and in re&Ulation of the domestic economy? China injects political considerations in its economic Finally, it should be pointed out that in a manner dealings with Japan, but not with West Germany? similar to traditional and contemporary domestic prac Is it because China and West Germany have few im tice, the Chinese resolve their foreign trade disputes portant strategic interests that conflict or overlap-<>ne through negotiation between the parties concerned is primarily an Asian power and the other a European rather than through resort to third-party arbitration or power-and hence have less to struggle over, and are adjudication. As part of this process, the Chinese prefer less likely to be upset by adverse political actions of the to develop relations with particular trading partners other? Or is it because China greatly needs German gradually in order to make sure that these partners are goods, and hence is willing to subordinate political con in fact reliable and willing to negotiate in a reasonable siderations to economic needs? Or is it that China way. Will the same pattern be followed in the establish realizes that while it may be able to affect Japan's China ment of political ties and in the resolution of intergov policy, there is little chance to influence that of Ger ernmental disputes? many, given these countries' respective domestic political These questions are just a sampling, but they do sug situations? Or is it perhaps a sophisticated understand gest that there is a definite relationship between how ing of the fact that certain propaganda techniques will China trades and how it acts in other areas. It is hoped work well in Japan but will backfire in other countries? that the participants in the conference and other stu The extent to which the Chinese are familiar with dents of contemporary Chinese society may be able to the technical intricacies of foreign trade law is note describe an intellectual framework which will permit worthy. Despite the domestic de-emphasis of law by the tying these various aspects into a more coherent whole. THE THIRD ANNUAL CONfERENCE ON PROJECT LINK by Lawrence R. Klein • DURING 1971, three international meetings of partlcl Previous meetings had centered around problems of pants in the project on International Linkage of Nation estimating import equations in specific disaggregated al Econometric Models (LINK) were held in different categories, solving the complete LINK system, studying pans of the world. Two meetings were regional: the bilateral linkage, and similar formative problems. These North American and Japanese participants met in issues were taken up again in the Newport meeting, but Honolulu on March 29-30, and the European group met in Bellagio on May 2-5. The annual meeting, which versity; R. J. Ball. London Graduate School of Business Studies; Giorgio Basevi. University of Bologna; Ralph Bryant, Board of Gov brings together all the participants at one time, was ernors of the Federal Reserve System; Carlo D·Adda. University of held at Vernon Court Junior College, Newport, Rhode Bologna; Hidekazu Eguchi. Bank of Japan; Julian Gomez. United Island, August 30 - September 7.1 Nations Conference on Trade and Development; Yvan Guillaume. Free University of Brussels; John Helliwell. University of British Colum· bia; George Henry. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys· • The author is Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsyl· tem; Jan G. D. Hoogland. Netherlands Central Planning Bureau; vania and a director of the Social Science Research Council. He has Lars Jacobsson. National Institute of Economic Research. Stockholm; been a member of its Committee on Economic Stability. which sponsors Kazuo Koizumi. Japan Economic Planning Agency; Wilhelm Krelle. Project LINK. since its appointment in 1959. The other members of Bonn University; Pertti Kukkonen. Bank of Finland; Sung Y. Kwack. the committee are Bert G. Hickman. Stanford University (chair· U. S. Department of the Treasury; Lawrence J. Lau. Stanford Uni· man); Martin Bronfenbrenner, Duke University; Otto Eckstein, versity; Chikashi Moriguchi, Kyoto University; Gunter Sandermann. Harvard University; R. A. Gordon. University of California. Berkeley; Bonn University; V. K. Sastry. United Nations Conference on Trade Franco Modigliani. Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Geoffrey H. and Development; John A. Sawyer. University of Toronto; Stefan Moore. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Arthur Okun. Brookings Insti· Schleicher. Institute for Advanced Studies. Vienna; Ian A. Stewazt. tution; Rudolf R. Rhomberg. International Monetary Fund; and Charles Bank of Canada; Grant B. Taplin. International Monetary Fund; L. Schultze. University of Maryland; staff, Donald S. Shoup. Reports Masahiro Tatemoto. Kyoto University; Alain Van Peeterssen. ~cole on the two preceding annual conferences on Project LINK were pub· des Hautes ~tudes Commerciales. Montreal; Petrus J. Verdoorn. Neth· lished in Items, December 1969 and December 1970. respectively. erlands Central Planning Bureau; Jean Waelbroeck. Free University of 1 Present. in addition to Messrs. Gordon. Hickman. Klein. Rhom· Brussels; Tsunehiko Watanabe. Osaka University; and Elinor B. Yudin. berg. and Shoup of the committee. were: Akihiro Amano. Kobe Uni· International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. 44 VOLUME 25. NUMBER 4 mUGh attention was devoted to an exttmsion of research aszewski of the UNCTAD staff on a trade model for effort into the problems associated with balance-of socialist countries. It was based on an idea of W. Beck payments modeling. If there is to be a thttme for each an erman (Econometrica, 1956) for determining trade co nual meeting, it can be said that the theme of the 1971 efficients as the ratio of flows from country i to country meeting was concerned with estimating world capital j to the export flow of country j. A system of equations flows in the LINK system. for trade among socialist countries, their imports from Project LINK first stimulated research on disaggrega nonsocialist countries, and their exports to nonsocialist tion of import equations and building a system for esti countries was given in the distributed paper. This sys mating patterns of world trade. Although much im tem is in a form that can be directly programmed into provement and refinement of research on these problems the LINK system. will be needed for years to come, the project is now The developing countries are now included in the stimulating research on the construction of financial world LINK model only through trade equations for sectors in national models, and the addition of related some 11 regional groupings. Mr. Gomez indicated how equations for international capital flows. The thrust of UNCTAD would build simple macro models for larger new LINK research in the separate international centers regional aggregates for inclusion in LINK. This should over the next two or three years is likely to be strong in give an improved treatment of the developing countries. monetary and balance-of-payments equation estimation. He also described UNCTAD plans for a data bank of At the Newport meeting Rudolf Rhomberg intro economic information on the developing countries that duced the issues involved in balance-of-payments re would be of great use for model building and the LINK search for LINK. He demonstrated that LINK would have system. the same problem in seeking a consistent world pay Bert Hickman and Lawrence Lau distributed a paper ments solution for separate country equations on capital on "A Set of National Econometric Models." This is a flows that we have now for trade flows, but that we family of linear equations that could be estimated for would not be able to make similar use of a shares matrix each country in the group of developed nations that is because data on capital flows by region of origin and not separately represented by an ongoing econometric destination are not available and, if they were, the geo project. These countries receive only superficial residual graphic pattern of capital movements would be highly treatment in the present LINK system. The LINK research variable. He pointed out the need for designing the effort at Stanford University should bring much im capital flow equations to be compatible with national provement in the treatment of this group. There it is monetary sector equations and for this reason suggested planned also to incorporate these new national models fairly aggregative relations at the beginning. in a linear world trade system patterned on a theoretical LINK participants from two countries have already model developed by Mr. Hickman and discussed at done much in the way of balance-of-payments research. Honolulu and Newport. It is believed that the estima Akihiro Amano has estimated a payments submodel for tion and operation of the linear system may suggest use inclusion in the Kyoto Model, and John Helliwell and ful properties for adaptation in the central nonlinear Ian Stewart have done the same for the RDXII Model LINK system. in Canada. Papers were presented on this work at New Progress reports of developments in building, im port. Both were extensions of preliminary presentations proving, or expanding models for individual countries at the Honolulu meeting. were presented at the meeting. This is a standard part In an invited paper presented at Newport, S. Y. of LINK research and will always need explanatory dis Kwack described his elaborate model of trade and pay cussion. Similarly, complete LINK system simulation ments that is designed for inclusion in the Brookings solutions are always of interest to the participants. This Model. His work will form the basis for new research to year's meeting was unusual, in that it occurred imme be done on the Wharton Model in the LINK system. diately after the introduction of the United States New Monetary and balance-of-payments subsector model Economic Policy. As this program has unusually sig building will not be the only major new extension of nificant international repercussions, some first attempts LINK research. Improved treatment of the developing were made by Alain Van Peeterssen to factor in the new economies, the socialist economies, and "rest of the United States policies. Preliminary LINK solutions were world" developed economies are also high on the priori available just at the opening of the Newport meeting. ty list for new research. All these topics were discussed While some individual country estimates appeared to in detail at Newport by V. K. Sastry and Julian Gomez show some biases in these preliminary calculations, the of the UN Conference on Trade and Development. The changes in the solutions associated with the New Eco former presented a paper by Boris Fomin and W. Tom- nomic Policy appeared to be quite interesting and DECEMBER 1971 45 plausible. They showed a slight drop in the real value The fruit of three years' labor on Project LINK is of world trade for 1971 and a more significant drop in expected soon to be available in a volume issued by 1972. There was much discussion of the methods to be North-Holland Publishing Company, for which many used for revising and improving these simulated policy of the research papers presented at Newport and previ calculations during the period following the meeting. ous meetings have been revised. According to present It is notable that the 1971 and 1972 LINK projections plans, this first volume will include: of world trade have been running at a low figure in terms of growth rate since the preliminary calculations INTRODUCTION, Bert G. Hickman, Lawrence R. Klein, Rudolf R. were presented at Honolulu. At that time they appeared Rhomberg MODELS OF THE PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES: A SURVEY, R. J. Ball to be unbelievably low for 1971 and 1972, but later COMMODITY TRADE EQUATIONS IN PROJECT LINK, Giorgio Basevi events have justified the results that were being pro THE INVISIBLE COMPONENTS OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF THE duced by the LINK system. BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS, John A. Sawyer Members from two new countries participated in the MODELS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, Julian Gomez and V. K. Newport meeting-Pertti Kukkonen, representing the Sastry Bank of Finland, and Stefan Schleicher, representing THE METHODOLOGY OF LINKAGE, Jean Waelbroeck TOWARDS A GENERAL TRADE MODEL, Rudolf R. Rhomberg the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna. The Fin A GENERAL LINEAR MODEL OF WORLD TRADE, Bert G. Hickman nish and Austrian Models were described for incorpora INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENTS: THEORY AND ESTIMATION, tion into the LINK system. It was voted to accept par Akihiro Amano ticipating membership of Australia and use of the model THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE MATRICES, Rudolf R. Rhomberg of the Reserve Bank of Australia. It is hoped that and Grant Taplin COMPREHENSIVE LINKAGE OF LARGE MODELS: CANADA AND THE Australian representatives will participate in the 1972 UNITED STATES, John Helliwell, Harold Shapiro, Gordon annual meeting. Sparks, Ian Stewart Plans for the 1972 meeting, which will be held in AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF A BILATERAL MODEL OF INTERNA' Vienna with local arrangements in the hands of the In TIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: JAPAN AND U.S.A., Masahiro stitute for Advanced Studies, were discussed at Newport. Tatemoto and Chikashi Moriguchi A feature of this meeting is to be an exchange of ideas FORECASTING WORLD TRADE WITHIN PROJECT LINK, Lawrence R. Klein and Alain Van Peeterssen on econometric model building with colleagues from the Soviet Union and other East European socialist countries. A group of socialist economists are being in Editorial responsibility for the volume has been ac vited to participate as guests in the regular LINK ses cepted by R. J. Ball and Chikashi Moriguchi. Tentative sions and to engage in technical discussion of compara plans are already being laid for a second volume, which tive problems in model building for socialist and market will present in full detail all the individual national or economies. regional models. HISTORICAL POLITICS: AMERICAN ELECTIONS, 1824-1970* by Jerome M. Clubb DURING the past decade major effort has been devoted of sample survey data and other information bearing on to development of data and other resources, including contemporary political phenomena. Somewhat more organizational structures, to support systematic in recently, attention has also been directed to the creation vestigation of political life. Much attention has been of facilities for systematic investigation of politics in focused on problems involved in the production and use historical depth. The latter concerns are, in part at least, a reflection • This report is a greatly condensed version of the preface and of significant elements of change in the organization introduction to a prospective series of volumes tentatively titled "American Elections: County Election Returns for the Offices ot and conduct of historical studies. The appearance of President, Governor, Representative, and Senator," edited by on Political Behavior, which provided support for a pilot survey of Howard W. Allen, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, and the state of election statistics by Walter Dean Burnham in the sum· Jerome M. Clubb, Director, Historical Archive, Inter·University Con mer of 1962. In the following year it enabled him to extend this sortium for Political Research. Publication of the series under the study under its program of Senior Awards for Research 011 Govern Consortium's sponsorship is expected in the coming year. The data mental Affairs. The members of the committee in 1961-62 were presented in the series are based on a larger collection of computer David B. Truman (chairman), William M. Beaney, Robert A. Dahl, readable election returns, 1824-1970, compiled and processed under Oliver Garceau, V. O. Key. Avery Leiserson, Edward H. Levi; staff, the auspices of the Consortium. This project was initiated with the Bryce Wood. In 1962-63 Angus Campbell succeeded Robert A. Dahl, assistance of the Social Science Research Council's former Committee who was abroad for the year. 46 VOLUME 25, NUMBER 4 1972 Vienna, Austria SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL VOLUME 27 . NUMBER 2 . JU'NE 1973 230 PARK AVENUE· NEW YORK, N.Y. 10017 PROJECT LINK: ENTER ING A NEW PHASE by Lawrence R. Klein • THE COUNCIL'S COMMITIEE ON ECONOMIC STABILITY sion mechanism provided by the existing large-scale pursued a strongly active policy of research stimulation national econometric model projects in many countries through various projects and conferences during the round the world. An exploratory meeting was held at entire decade of the 1960's. A hallmark of the national Stanford University in July 1968, to bring together econometric model project fostered by the committee model proprietors from several major countries and during 1960-63, and continued as the Brookings Econo members of the committee who maintained an unusual metric Model Project, was cooperative group research. interest in the subject.1 It is easy to look back on that project and see substan At the time of this initial meeting, we all knew that tial accomplishments and benefits that emanated from there was a problem area and that the existing world the cooperative approach. Applied macroeconometrics inventory of national models would be central in deal and some theoretical developments, too, would not be ing with the issues, but we had no idea about the precise where they stand today, were it not for the group reo shape the project would take-about the way in which search efforts started through the committee. These models would be used or the formal structure of the re points came out clearly in the summing-up conference sulting world system. It is remarkable, however, that at on the Econometric Model Project held at Brookings the planning meeting, through the medium of free as in February 1972. sociation of oral ideas in two days of face-ta-face discus It is not surprising that when the committee decided sion, we worked out a general research strategy that has in 1967-68 to adopt a suggestion of Rudolf Rhomberg stood up through subsequent research and jelled into a to study the international transmission mechanism it formal model that now produces results far in excess of again turned to the group idea of research cooperation our original hopes or aspirations. It has turned out to to tackle the challenging problems that he posed. It was be an exemplary experience in effective international agreed at the outset that the new project should not research cooperation. start out from "square one," but should build on the At the initial meeting it was decided that: vast fund of information on the international transmis- 1. Each resident model builder knows his own coun • The author is Professor of Economics at the University of Penn sylvania and a director of the Social Science Research Council. He has try best from the viewpoints of model specification, been a member of its Committee on Economic Stability, which sponsors Project LINK, since its appointment in 1959. The other members of 1 The committee members were Bert G. Hickman (chairman), R. A. the committee are Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University (chairman); Gordon, L. R. Klein, and R. R. Rhomberg. The other participants Martin Bronfenbrenner, Duke University; Otto Eckstein, Harvard Uni were R. J. Ball, London Graduate School of Business Studies; Hide versity; R. A. Gordon, University of California, Berkeley; Franco kazu Eguchi, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, l\Iodigliani, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Geoffrey H. Moore, and Bank of Japan; John A. Sawyer, University of Toronto; Petrus J. National Bureau of Economic Research; Arthur M. Okun, Brookings Verdoorn, Central Planning Bureau of the Netherlands; Jean Wael Institution; Rudolf R. Rhomberg, International Monetary Fund; Sally broeck, Free University of Brussels; and Tsunehiko Watanabe, Kyoto S. Ronk, Drexel Burnham and Company, Inc.; and Charles L. Schultze, University. Wilhelm Krelle, Bonn University, was unable to attend the University of Maryland. meeting but otherwise participated from the outset. 11 data, and inputs from local institutions. Each world meeting took place, in London, September model would be accepted, subject to group cri 1970 (see Items, December 1970), we had worked out tique, in the form put forward by each national some first numerical approximations to the idea of an econometrician. Quarterly and annual models "equilibrium" level of world trade. In these early would be amalgamated into a common inter stages of the project major effort was devoted to the national framework. statistical problem of calculating a solution to the world 2. The main international linkages would come trade system. We were able to demonstrate that: through the trade accounts. Imports rather than a. A numerical solution for world trade could be exports would be endogenously explained in each found. national model and would be classified into a mini b. The actual results were plausible in terms of recent mum of five fixed groups (Standard International history of world trade flows. Trade Classification): c. The system was perceptive in yielding fairly good 0,1 food, beverages and tobacco forecasts of the growth of world trade at a time 2,4 other basic materials when it was beginning to slow down as a result of 3 mineral fuels (mainly oil) the world-wide recession of 1969-72 (first in North 5-9 manufactures services America, then in Europe, the United Kingdom, and Japan). Valuation would ·be FOB. 3. Exports would be determined by statIstics on The early calculations were simplified, and much of international trade shares. The basic accounting the effort during the third year of LINK research was de criterion that world exports equal world imports voted to making it more general, by finding both equi would be maintained in the ultimate solution of librium prices and volumes of world trade flows. At this the world model. time we also started to expand the system by inviting 4. Other leading countries with ongoing model proj participation from Australia and Finland, exploring ects would be invited to join, and group meetings the problem of including the socialist countries, and would be held periodically to discuss research making a better effort to model the developing coun carried on during the period between meetings. tries. As the size of the group continued to grow, we Financial support for the research thus organized as decided to limit participation, not so much from the Project LINK has from the outset come principally from viewpoint of including the most strategic countries in the International Monetary Fund and the National Sci international trade or finance but from that of ensuring ence Foundation. These funds have been largely incre a good working team that could function effectively in mental for ongoing research projects and therefore able the LINK framework. to produce a large volume of new research activity on France and Italy are so large and important, however, the basis of modest outlays. Not only have the core that we had to seek adequate participation by model funds stimulated much new research in a direction building groups in those countries (or nearby groups, fruitful for the study of trade problems, but they have doing work on them). Arrangements were made for a also been successful in encouraging a great deal of local team from the University of Bologna to build a model research support. Additional financial support from for Italy and, after many false starts, for Belgian re individual countries for research in separate centers searchers to construct a model for France. and for LINK research as a whole has recently been forth At the present time, the roster of LINK models and coming. The project is now receiving more broadly participants includes: based international support. Belgium: Quarterly Model of the Free University of Brussels, After the first year's work-arranging for partici Jean Waelbroeck, Victor Ginsburgh pation, exploring problems of availability of data on Canada: Annual TRACE Model of the University of Toronto, John A. Sawyer, associated bilateral research with RDXII trade, and system formulation-in September 1969 we Model of the Bank of Canada, John Helliwell held our first world meeting, for which the Japan Eco France: Annual POMPOM Model of the Free University of nomic Research Center at Hakone was host (see Items, Brussels, Y. Guillaume December 1969). In that first year we had worked out, in Germany (West): Annual BONNER Model of Bonn Uni good international cooperation, ways of proceeding versity, Wilhelm Krelle and Giinter Sandermann toward a mathematical solution for "equilibrium" Italy: Quarterly Model of the University of Bologna, Giorgio Basevi and Carlo D'Adda world trade-a volume of flows among countries or Japan: Quarterly DEN KEN Model of the Central Research regions that could be supported by internal eco Institute of Electric Power Industry, Kyoto University and nomic activity in each region. By the time the second Osaka UniverSity, Chikashi Moriguchi, Hidekazu Eguchi, 14 VOLUME 27, NUMBER. 2 Tsunehiko Watanabe, Masahiro Tatemoto, Akira Yajima, upon when suddenly the world was confronted with the Akihiro Amano United States' New Economic Policy on August 15, Netherlands: Annual Model of the Central Planning Bureau, 1971. The suspension of official gold-trading, the Petrus J. Verdoorn, J. J. Post Sweden: Annual Model of the Institute for International Eco· import surcharge, the "dirty float," and finally the nomic Studies, Assar Lindbeck (formerly with Lars Jacobsson) Smithsonian Conference provided a unique and chal United Kingdom: Quarterly Model of the London Graduate lenging opportunity for applying and testing the LINK School of Business Studies, R. J. Ball and T. Burns Model. This work went on during much of 1971 and United States: Quarterly Wharton Model, Mark III, Lawrence throughout 1972. The second wave of devaluation R. Klein (February-March 1973) provided fresh grounds for new Austria: Annual Model of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Stefan Schleicher tabulations. These were precisely the kinds of situations Developing Countries: Annual Models for Latin America, for which LINK was originally proposed. South/East Asia, Africa (less Libya), Middle East Oil Pro· During the summer of 1971 and in repeated revisions ducers (incl. Libya), V. K Sastry, Julian Gomez, UN Con in line with new developments, the LINK system of ference on Trade and Development world trade was examined under both realistic and Council for Mutual Economic Assistance: Annual reduced form and trade matrix equations, B. Fomin, J. Glowacki, V. K. hypothetical configurations of exchange rates. In all Sastry these applications some persistent results stood out: Rest of the World (ROW): Annual Models (small) from Stan 1. The United States overall trade deficit would per ford University, Bert G. Hickman and Lawrence Lau sist through 1972 with a substantial imbalance vis The next major additions will be models for: a-vis Japan. One may question, retrospectively, whether we were sufficiently bearish, but the LINK Australia: Quarterly Model of the Reserve Bank of Australia, W. E. Norton Model was definitely giving the appropriate danger Finland: Quarterly Model of the Bank of Finland, P. Kuk signals at a time when there was unusual confi konen dence elsewhere that the Smithsonian agreement would bring about a large swing in the United The ROW models designed by Hickman and Lau are States trade position in a reasonable period of time. not yet being used in complete system simulations, but 2. The New Economic Policy and dollar devaluations are being prepared for that purpose. The same is true would reduce the growth path of world trade of POMPOM. below the path that would have been followed in On the model as a whole, general participation the absence of these changes, but world trade involves R. R. Rhomberg and Grant Taplin, Inter would continue to grow and accelerate in 1973. national Monetary Fund; Alain Van Peeterssen, Ecole 3. The developing countries would not be seriously des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Montreal; R. A. set back, from the point of view of trade balance, Gordon, University of California, Berkeley; and Keith by the new policies. It was apparent at an early Johnson and Y. Nishino, University of Pennsylvania. stage that the Middle East oil-producing nations The way in which all these models are combined for would prosper in the new world trade environ mutually consistent world trade simulation solutions is ment. described in detail in The International Linkage of National Economic Models, edited by R. J. Ball. This Two principal reasons account for the comparatively volume is scheduled for early publication by the North restrained appraisal that came from the LINK system Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam. Other about the effect of the Smithsonian agreement. In the topics, including the basic ideas of model linkage and first place, LINK by its very nature places the world model comparisons, are also treated in this first volume. trade analysis in a setting of world Konjunktur, that is A second volume, edited by Jean Waelbroeck, is already to say, we look at the domestic economies of the trading in preparation. It presents in full detail the equations nations in some detail at the same time that we are esti and variables used in the complete LINK system. This mating the trade flows among them. We fully accounted volume is intended to be purely informative and de for the facts that the Smithsonian accord came at a time scriptive, but there is no other volume that brings to when North America was in the midst of a vigorous gether a similar collection of statistical systems. recovery phase, while the United Kingdom, Western Emphasis was placed in Project LINK on building a Europe, Japan, and other nations were in the midst of a world model out of the country "pieces" and the world growth recession. It is a very different environment trade matrix. In 1970 and 1971 we were able to demon that prevails in the spring of 1973, thus leading to a strate that plausible solutions to this world system could more optimistic appraisal about the trade effects of the be obtained. These were being improved and worked second wave of dollar devaluation. JUNE 1973 15 Secondly, the trading relations built into each pated in the 1972 annual meetings, criticized in a highly country model of LINK tum out to be comparatively constructive way the formal treatment of the socialist insensitive to price or exchange rate adjustments. The countries in LINK, and agreed to continue participation many expert LINK participants try hard to be realistic in the future. This aspect of LINK research is actively and accurate in their appraisal of these effects, and basi being pursued at UNCTAD and looks quite promising. cally this research has provided a good guide for the It is hoped that the system can be made more world study of the current world economic issues. wide in scope through the inclusion of trade flow rela The developing countries, through 'their representa tionships for the People's Republic of China, North tives in UN CTAD have pressed LINK researchers to take Vietnam, North Korea, and Albania. a longer-tenn view of the world economy-a decade or If the first years of LINK research have been mainly so. We are turning in that direction, but are necessarily concerned with defining the trade/transmission prob going about the problem slowly because of 'the magni lem, specifying the statistical system, and obtaining tude of the job. Yet, the short-run response of develop meaningful simulation solutions for the world economy, ing country trade flows to the New Economic Policy and the second phase will tum increasingly towards analysis the Smithsonian exchange rates became a matter of of capital flows and international financial relationships. great concern for the developing countries; accordingly In order to study these questions effectively in the LINK LINK researchers prepared a special adaptation of a gen framework, each country or area model needs to have a eral study of the new 'trade arrangements for the balance-of-payments submodel developed for it. But in UNCTAD meeting in Santiago, April 1972. The main order to have an effective balance-of-payments sector, focus of LINK research for the developing countries has each model also needs a domestic monetary sector. At been on a broad area basis-Latin America, Africa, the time of inauguration of LINK research, most country Middle East, Asia. Next efforts will be directed more models did not have these features, and a direct conse towards analysis of individual developing countries. quence of this continuing international research associ Major nations within broad areas will be selected for ation is for the participating countries to develop these individual study and then fonnally integrated within interesting and necessary sectors for their models. A the whole LINK system. demonstration effect assisted by critical and frank dis Project· LINK began as a study of the trade and trans cussion has worked admirably in stimulating research mission mechanism among the main industrial market across countries that will payoff for years to come. economies, but was soon enended, as explained above, In the future, LINK researchers plan to tum to longer to the developing countries. During the past two years, run analyses, the combination of commodity market the project's research has extended in yet another direc modeling with national country modeling, and more tion, namely, towards inclusion of the socialist econo detailed treatment of international price relationships. mies. At the annual meetings in 1971 (at Newport, These extensions together with past accomplishments Rhode Island), UNCTAD economists presented a in treating the socialist countries, the developing coun statistical model of trade for the Soviet Union, Bulgaria, tries, and contemporary short-run economic policy have Czechoslovakia, East Gennany, Hungary, Poland, and shown clearly that cooperative research is possible and Romania-the CMEA countries. This system has been rewarding on an international scale. A working relation fully programmed into the central LINK files and has ship has evolved in LINK activity that concentrates on been used in a significant way to indicate some of the problem solving and gets econometricians doing it on a effects of the new large trade flows from West to East. mutually compatible basis across national boundaries, A number of economists from CMEA countries par tid- oceans, and many other barriers. 16 VOLUME 27, NUMBER 2 1973 Stockholm, Sweden 1974 Washington, DC, USA 1976 Venice, Italy 1977 New York, NY, USA 1977 Kyoto, Japan 1978 New York, NY, USA REV!SEÿ AGENDA LINK MEETINGS March 21 - 23, 1978 United Nations, New York TUESDAY March 21 a.m. - Welcome by UN Officials Contemporary World Economic Situation and Review of 1977 - L.R. Klein Projections 1977-80 LINK Participants Australia William Norton Austria Stefan Schleicher p.m. - Belgium Jean Waelbroeck Canada Peter Dungan Finland Pertti Kukkonen France M'Hamed Cherif Germany Klaus Conrad Japan Chikashi Moriguchi WEDNESDAY March 22 a.m, - Italy Angelo Tantazzi Netherlands Jan Kooyman Sweden Franz Ettlin United Kingdom Terry Burns p.m. - United States L,R. Klein CPE Stanislav Menshikov LDC Kenneth Ruffing ROW Keith Johnson Summary and Review of World Economic Situation "Extended MAXILINK Projections to 1982" - LINK Central Staff, UNCTAD Staff Long Term Projections CDPPP Staff THURSDAY March 23 a.m. - "Protectionism and Other International Economic Policies: LINK Simulations" - L.R, Klein and Vincent Su New Models: Netherlands J.J. Post Sweden Johan Lybeck & Franz Ettlin Greece Ulyses Avramides Dae Choi, Jacek Sztaudynger "Capital Flow and Exchange Rate Projections" - L.R. Klein During the course of the meetings, there will be demonstrations of remote access solu- tions of the LINK system by portable terminals - Nicolas Castillo 1978 Athens, Greece (_R.evised September 28ÿ 197ÿ) Mondayÿ October 2 9.00 a.m, : Opening of the Meetinÿ i0.00 a.m. : REVIEW OF WORLD OUTLOOK AND 1978 LINK PPOJFCT!ON$ Laÿmence R. Klein and L!}ÿK Central Staff 12.30 p.m. : Lunch 2 30 p m, : COUNTRY/,ÿREA ÿmpoRTÿ Saturdayÿ October 7 : 8.30 a.m, ",i-!:ÿ;W OF LINK ...... ÿ,,ÿ, .ÿ Business ÿ%eting 12.30 p.mo : Lu]ÿch and Adjournmenb 1979 New York, NY, USA AGENDA LINK MEETINGS United Nations, N.Y. March 13-15, 1979 Tuesday, March 13th -9:30 a.m. Welcome by Dr. P. N. Dhar, Assistant Secretary General for Development Research and Policy Analysis Review of the World Economy L.R. Klein Simulations of Effects of Middle East Changes L.R. Klein, D. Rolley Simulations of Growth and Anti-Inflation Policies to 1985 and Comparisons with Longer Term Projections: A Progress Report V. Su for LINK, S. Menshikov, V. Filatoÿ for U.N. Individual Country Forecast Reports United Kingdom T. Burns Canada J. Sawyer (read in his absence) Japan C. Moriguchi 2:00 p.m. Individual Country Forecast Reports Germany P. Kohnert France P. Artus Italy A. Stagni United States L.R. Klein Wednesday, March 14th 9:30 a.m. Area Reports CMEA S. Menshikov Poland W. Welfe Hungary A. Simon China L. Lau Developing Countries K. Ruffing 2:00 p.m. Econometric Model Building for Developing Countries (with current outlook reports) Brazil R.A. Roldan Mexico A. Beltran del Rio Africa T. Kofi Middle East M.S. Marzouk Chile S. Chaigneau Central America G. Siri Thursday, March 15th 9:30 a.m. Individual Country Forecast Reports Switzerland J. Lambelet Sweden F. Ettlin Finland P. Kukkonen Denmark A.M. Christensen Austria I. Prucha 2:00 p.m. Individual Country Forecast Reports Belgium M. Alle Netherlands J. Kooyman Australia D. Ironmonger During the course of the meetings, Victor Filatov provided demon- strations of the LINK interactive computer system at the U.N. 1979 Helsinki, Finland AGENDA LINK MEETING, August 27 - September l, 1979 Forest Lake Hotel, hr. Helsinki, Finland L.R. Klein Monday, a.m. LINK World Outlook E. Lundberg August 27 Discussant Country Reports West Germany W. Krelle United Kingdom T. Burns • France P. Artus, R. Courbis Italy A. Stagni Discussant M. Davenport Monday, p.m. Country Reports Japan C. Moriguchi Canada G. Jump United States L.R. Klein Netherlands J. Kooyman Belgium J. Waelbroeck Discussant C, Fraÿter Tuesday, a.m. Country Reports F. Ettlin, J. Lybeck August 28 Sweden Fih!and P. Kukkonen Denmark S-K. Topp Austria G. Hunduch Switzerland J.C. Lambe!et Discussant H. Koskenkyi9 Tuesday, p.m. Country Reports CMEA S. Menshikov Poland W. Weife Developing Countries K. Ruffing Australia D. Ironmonger Greece U. Avramides Discussant A. Schwartz Wednesday, a.m. Rational Expectations and the August 29 Structural Approach to Exchange Rate DeTermination H. BeensTock Policy Modelling of Foreign Exchange Rates John F. Helliwell The INTERLINK Model.: Multipliers, Sim<ÿlations L. Samuelson Discussants g. Wae]broeck, A. Costa Wednesday, p.mo FREE - 2 - Thursday, a.m. New LINK Models August 30 SEA Sub-LINK S. Ichimura A Model of Poland W. Welfe China ÿ%1ook L. Lau Wages and Prices in the Swedish Model F. Ettlin Discussant W o Krelle Thursday, p.m. Research Planning and Business Meeting Friday, a.m. World Energy Analysis August 31 The Energy Sector in National Models B. Hickman LINK Energy Price Simu- L.R. Klein, V. Su lations Discussant T. Burns Press conference Friday, p.m. Special Problems and Applications II Medium Term Projections and Policies V. Filatov, S. Menshikov Simulations of the European Monetary System L.R. Klein ÿ D. Rolley Discussant C Moriguchi Saturday, a.m. Trade Matrices of Invisibles September 1 Discussant to be announced SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL VOLUME 33 • NUMBERS 3/4 • DECEMBER 1979 605 THIRD AVENUE. NEW YORK, N.Y. 10016 A Decade of Research by Project Link by Bert C. Hickman and Lawrence R. Klein* Genesis and purpose Project LINK is a cooperative, international research of the forecast horizon. Methodological contributions activity aimed at increasing basic understanding of have been made to the theory of trade linkages and the nature and strength of economic relationships world trade models, to the solution algorithms for that bind individual countries into a world economy large systems of linked models, to the integration of and serve to transmit both stabilizing and destabiliz national and commodity models, and to the incor ing disturbances across national boundaries. Struc poration of exchange-rate determination and capital tural econometric models of the various countries and flows into multinational models. regions included in the system are linked through a The methodological basis of the project is the idea central world trade matrix of commodity flows and of integrating independently-developed national prices and of exchange rates and capital flows. models into a world system. Early in 1968, the Com The LINK system is global in scope and virtually mittee on Economic Stability and Growth concluded complete in its geographical coverage. From its in that the flourishing state of macroeconometric mod ception, it has been used for ex-ante forecasts of both eling at home and abroad provided the necessary the level and composition of world production and foundation for such a program. Its feasibility was trade and of inflation and unemployment rates. examined at a planning session held at Stanford U ni Numerous applications have also been made of inter versity under the auspices of the committee on July national multipliers and of policy simulations and scenarios of the effects of international disturbances. Over the decade of its existence, the project has ex panded substantially in the degree of country cover age, the scope of linkage mechanisms, and the length CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE 49 A Decade of Research by Project LINK-Bert C. Hickman and Lawrmce R. Klein * The authors are, respectively, professor of economics at Stan 56 The Accident at Three Mile Island: Social Science ford University and Benjamin Franklin professor of economics at Perspectives-C. P. Wolf the University of Pennsylvania. They have served as members of 61 Council Symposium on Individual and Social Change the Council's Committee on Economic Stability and Growth since 62 Pendleton Herring Receives the Merriam Award its appointment in 1959; the committee has been chaired by Mr. 63 Current Activities at the Council -The representation of cultural knowledge Hickman since 1962. The other members of the committee, -Institute on life-span development which sponsors Project LINK, are: Irma Adelman, University of -Law and social structure in the !'lear and Middle East California, Berkeley; Rudiger Dornbusch, Massachusetts Insti -Parenting behavior tute of Technology; Otto Eckstein, Harvard University; Stephen -Comparative stratification research -Early socialization in Japan and the United States M. Goldfeld, Princeton University; Franco Modigliani, Massachu -Staff appointment: Ronald J. Peleck setts Institute of Technology; Geoffrey H. Moore, Rutgers Uni 66 Recent Council Publications versity, Newark; William D. Nordhaus, Yale University; and Ar thur M. Okun, Brookings Institution (Washington, D.C.). 49 8-9, 1968. 1 The group decided to go forward with ated at the individual national centers, mostly without the program, and the Committee on Economic Sta use of LINK funds. Project funds, however, have been bility and Growth agreed to secure financial support. instrumental in getting some new model centers Project LINK draws on intellectual resources and started and in training their personnel. local expertise from around the world. This means Semiannual meetings provide the forum for ap that the national models are built and maintained by praising and modifying forecasts, presenting papers resident economists who know local institutional and on new national models, the modeling of specific as behavioral characteristics and are well informed pects of the transmission mechanism, simulation about the economic outlook a.nd the evolution of eco studies with the complete system, and other relevant nomic policy of their particular country. The indi subjects. The spring meetings focus primarily on the vidual models vary considerably in size and specifica preparation of ex-ante forecasts and the summer tion, thus broadening the information base and en meetings are devoted to presentations and discussion riching the theoretical and methodological content of of new research results. Guests are invited to present the system as compared with a centrally-constructed papers on aspects of international and domestic mod multiregional model with a uniform structure across eling related to the ongoing work of the project and countries. In addition to these advantages, partici to serve as external critics of LINK research. pants in the group, and through them, other Since research takes place at each participating in economists in the various countries, have benefited stitution, provisions are made for frequent coordina from the exchange of ideas and scientific papers at tion. The LINK Secretariat serves as the central repos the periodic LINK conferences. The papers them itory for the associated models and data bank and selves have been disseminated to a broader audience keeps participants informed about project research, through journal articles, research memoranda, and meeting plans, and administrative affairs. The basic three volumes on LINK research [2, 20, 21]. A research agenda is formulated at the annual meetings complete bibliography appears in [20], Modelling the by the group as a whole, and an Executive Committee International Transmission Mechanism, edited by John oversees the general implementation of the project.3 A. Sawyer. Evolution of the system Organization and implementation of the project The basic framework for the LINK system emerged The committee has been fortunate to obtain finan from two days of intensive discussion by the planning cial support for the project from many sources, with group inJuly 1968. (1) Each national model would be principal sustaining contributions during the forma accepted in the form put forward by the local tive years from the International Monetary Fund and econometricians, subject to group critique. (2) The the National Science Foundation.2 Principal uses of principal linkages would come initially through the the project funds include support for LINK-related research on the national models at the various par 2 In keeping with the cooperative international spirit that char ticipating centers, the travel and maintenance ex acterizes LINK, funding has also been provided for various pur penses for the annual spring and summer meetings of poses during the project's history by the Austrian National Bank. the Bank of Finland, the Bank of Greece, the Bank of Japan, the the participants, and the maintenance and operation Bank of Sweden, the Belgian National Science Foundation, the of the centralized system under the direction of Mr. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Canada Klein at the LINK Secretariat, Department of Eco Council, the Center of Planning and Economic Research nomics, University of Pennsylvania. The national (Athens), the European Economic Community, the German models themselves are built, maintained, and oper- Bundesbank, the German Research Association, the Institute for Advanced Studies (Vienna), the Italian Science Foundation. the Japan Economic Research Center. the United Nations, and the 1 In addition to Messrs. Hickman and Klein, the participants in U.S. departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, State, and this planning meeting consisted of two then-members of the Treasury. committee. R. A. Gordon, University of California, Berkeley, and 3 The Executive Committee currently includes Mr. Hickman. Rudolf R. Rhomberg, International Monetary Fund (Washing chairman; R. J. Ball, London Graduate School of Business ton, D.C.). as well as R. J. Ball, London Graduate School of Studies; Mr. Klein; Wilhelm Krelle, University of Bonn; Stanislav Business Studies; Hidekazu Eguchi, Bank of Japan; John A. Menshikov, United Nations; Chikashi Moriguchi, Kyoto Univer Sawyer, University of Toronto; Petrus J. Verdoorn, Central sity; V. K. Sastry, United Nations Conference on Trade and Planning Bureau (The Hague);Jean Waelbroeck, Free University Development (Geneva); John A. Sawyer, University of Toronto; of Brussels; and Tsunehiko Watanabe. Kyoto University. and Jean Waelbroeck, Free University of Brussels. 50 VOLUME 33, NUMBERS 3/4 merchandise trade accounts and would be im reduced-form trade equations for 11 regional blocs of plemented by national import functions for four developing countries. Socialist trade was not covered internationally-standardized (SITC) commodity at that time. groupings in each national model. (3) Adopting a In the years since 1972, the LINK system has ex suggestion put forward by Mr. Rhomberg, instead of panded in virtually every dimension. Many of the estimating bilateral import functions among all pairs original models have been revised and enlarged to of trading countries, exports would eventually be de broaden their scope for the analysis of capital flows, termined by allocating each country's imports among interest rates, exchange rates, energy developments, all supplying countries according to a matrix of trade and inflationary trends. A model has been added for shares. (4) Since the export-shares approach would France, and the less-developed countries are repre involve difficult theoretical, data, and computational sented by regional models for Africa, Asia, Latin problems, it was also decided to experiment with sim America, and the Middle East. The socialist world is pler methods for obtaining a consistent world trade covered by models for Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East solution while development of the shares approach Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and the progressed. U.S.S.R. Exchange rates and capital flows among the The next three or four years were devoted to car developed countries are determined endogenously as rying out this broad program of research, beginning part of the linkage mechanism along with trade flows with the first world conference of Project LINK, held and prices. The complete system now includes more in Hakone, japan, September 16-20, 1969.4 At first, than 5,000 equations. short-cut methods-Mini-LINK and Midi-LINK-were The system is maintained in computer-ready form used to solve the system and forecast world trade, but at LINK Central, which is also the site for the prepara the Maxi-LINK method involving the shares approach tion of the annual forecasts and for many of the was operational by 1972.5 scenarios and policy studies. Other LINK research cen Although conceptually straightforward, Maxi-LINK ters that have the entire system on their computers solutions are computationally complex and involve are in Austria, Italy, japan, and the United Kingdom. formidable problems of data management. As it stood A new interactive version which greatly facilitates in mid-1972, there were 1,178 simultaneous non simulation studies has recently been installed at the linear equations in the set of 12 national models for United Nations. As a matter of policy, all participants industrialized countries and several hundred further in LINK are encouraged to install and operate the equations were included in the full system to cover system in their own centers. trading relationships in the rest of the world and to provide the international linkages. The countries Turbulent events represented by full-blown national models included Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Finland, West When the LINK project was conceived and initiated Germany, Italy, japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the in 1968-69, the world had just experienced a period United Kingdom, and the United States. The non of unusual and fairly steady growth in the volume of socialist world trading system was closed geograph total trade, growing at about 10 per cent yearly ically by assuming constant trade shares for the re towards the end of the decade. We were on the verge maining OECD countries as a group and by the use of then of a period when the international economy was to undergo a series of large shocks and when interna 4 For reviews of this formative period, see B. G. Hickma'h [6] tional economics was to assume a greater importance. and L. R. Klein [12]. In the decade of the 1970s, the United States grew to 5 The primary source on LINK research during the years appreciate more and more the internationalization of 1969--72 is the volume edited by R. J. Ball [2]. The theoretical its economic affairs through recognition that we are structure of model linkage is presented in contributions by B. G. truly an open economy. During this decade, East Hickman, R. R. Rhomberg, and J. Waelbroeck in Part I, and the initial empirical implementation is described in Part V by L. R. West trade has also flourished. Both the U.S.S.R. and Klein and A. Van Peeterssen. Subsequent modifications and re China opened their economies to an increasing in finements in the solution algorithm were made by Van volvement with trade linkages. The design and func Peeterssen, C. Moriguchi, and K. Johnson, as described in tioning of the LINK system captured these changing Johnson and Van Peeterssen, "Solving and Simulating the LINK roles of the big powers-the U.S., the U.S.S.R., and System," in J. L. Waelbroeck, editor [10]. This volume also con tains complete equation listings of the 13 models for industri China-and dealt successively with a stream of im alized countries and the four regional models of developing portant international issues and events. countries comprising the LINK system in the mid-1970s. Project LINK began during the waning years of the DECEMBER 1979 51 system of fixed parities for exchange rates between sonian and later developments in foreign exchange countries, which resulted from a 44-nation meeting markets, that a German revaluation would not elimi convened in 1944 at Bretton Woods, New Hamp nate a persistent surplus on a lasting basis unless it shire. Under this system, exchange rates were kept was accompanied by an associated expansionary fiscal constant until the pressure of imbalances (surplus or policy. The German LINK model was simulated with deficit on current account) mandated a change. out linkage to the rest of the world system (in pre These changes were usually limited and occurred LINK mode) for this study in 1969. frequently enough to give flexibility to the system. During 1973, a large-scale grain purchase by the LINK initially studied the international transmission Soviet Union sparked a series of price escalations in mechanism within the terms of this system. The prin basic commodities that were closely followed in LINK cipal linkage methods of the system were centered simulations for inflationary impact and policy re around the use of the world trade matrix-a square sponse. Relevant cells of the trade matrix for array showing all possible bilateral flows of trade be categories associated with trade in agricultural prod tween pairs of a given list of countries or areas-and ucts were adjusted in LINK simulations to reflect the the stability of this matrix became a matter of great commodity flows involved. In later years, especially in concern once the turbulent events of the 1970s began 1975 and 1977, the workings of the Soviet model in to unfold. The first, the breakdown of the Bretton the LINK system were closely monitored in order to Woods system, introduced significant changes in reflect the effects of harvest shortfalls and resulting relative prices as a result of exchange rate trade flows. A special paper was prepared for LINK realignments and these, in turn, induced major participants on a 1978 scenario for a hypothetical changes in bilateral trade relationships. worldwide harvest failure as a result of the experience With the help of the staff of the International of 1972-73 [see 18]. Monetary Fund (IMF), LINK assembled a whole time The speculative run-up of commodity prices in series of world trade matrices. Eventually, the project 1973 led to inflationary developments in a number of itself undertook this statistical task in order to keep major importing countries. Since the LINK system the matrix more up-to-date (no more than two years' separates trade and price formation in different delay) and produced an informative paper by Paul commodity groups, a number of these price effects Beaumont, Ingmar Prucha, and Victor Filatov on were studied in simulations prepared for the Stock redirections in world trade between 1970 and 1975. holm meeting of LINK, in September 1973, and the The paper was first presented at the LINK meeting in Washington meeting in September 1974, reported in Kyoto, Japan, in September 1977 and subsequently the Waelbroeck volume [21]. published in 1979 [3]. The fundamental work on the It was noted at the 1973 Stockholm meeting that a assembly of data was undertaken by Y. Kumasaka of number of major industrial countries were following the LINK research staff. Beaumont and Filatov were restrictive anti-inflationary policies in order to deal also members of the LINK staff; Prucha was a LINK with price rises that occurred during 1973. A mild trainee from the Institute for Advanced Studies (Vi slowdown in the growth of the world economy was enna). Beaumont is now at the U.S. Bureau of the projected at that time, but soon after the meeting, the Census; Filatov is at the United Nations. Arab oil embargo was imposed, and the LINK system The project studied the effects of the Smithsonian was quickly adapted to forecasting the oncoming realignments of parity under the 1971 Smithsonian world recession. (See L. R. Klein and K. N. Johnson Agreement, projecting at the time that they would not [14] and L. R. Klein [15].) accomplish as much as public officials had claimed Many kinds of commodity price changes have been because the relevant elasticities were not large enough investigated in the LINK context, but oil prices, in and because the cyclical position of the world econ particular, have received a great deal of attention omy was unfavorable. As it turned out, the Smithson since the stepwise changes introduced by OPEC, ian rates were not adequate for the restoration of starting in 1974. The effects were isolated by at international equilibrium, and another wave of re tempting to examine what would have happened in valuations took place in early 1973. (See L. R. Klein, the international economy had oil prices remained at C. Moriguchi, and A. Van Peeterssen [13] and L. R. their 1973 levels for the next three years. Each sub Klein [11].) sequent round of OPEC increases has been individu A prior investigation on a , smaller scale had been ally monitored. In addition, some general findings on introduced to LINK by Wilhelm Krelle for the study of the sensitivity of the system to standardized incre German exchange rates. He showed, before the Smith- ments of $1.00 per barrel or 10 per cent price 52 VOLUME 33, NUMBERS 3/4 changes have been prepared for general use. These aggregates and for selected variables across individual studies have been kept up-to-date, right through the countries. (See Klein [15],johnson and Klein [9], and days and weeks of the 1979 Iranian Revolution and its Helliwell [4] for error tabulations.) On an overall spillover effect on world oil prices. basis, the system was perceptive in foreseeing the The 1971 Smithsonian Agreement set up, in prin inadequacy of the 1971 Smithsonian Agreement, the ciple, new currency parities, but these rapidly gave impending slowdown after 1973, the worldwide re way to the present system of floating rates-partly cession of 1974-75, and the slower pace of world free and partly managed. This development intro growth since 1978. duced an entirely new consideration for LINK, namely, Although plain forecasting is always a necessary the shift from exogenous to endogenous exchange application of econometric models, a more important rates. Many of the individual models introduced ex use is for policy analysis. Among the various policies change rate equations, and in 1978 a system-wide set that have been considered are: was introduced and implemented for the projections discussed at the Athens meeting in October of that (1) fiscal policies-public expenditures or tax year. changes (2) monetary policies-money supply, reserve, and discount rate changes Applications (3) tariff policies The turbulent events of the 1970s, mentioned in (4) exchange rate policies the preceding section, allIed to complications or new (5) energy price policies considerations in the development of Project LINK. They also motivated many fruitful investigations, A straightforward application would be the analysis usually by dynamic simulation techniques. Some of of policy change in anyone country, say a fiscal these have already been cited. In this section, we lay change in Germany, japan, the United States, or any out more systematically the applications that have other major industrial country. There is interest in been made-apart from their responsiveness to par measuring the effect both on the country making the ticular events. change and on the world as a whole. Typical exam Every year, LINK goes through a forecasting cycle. ples are the effect of fiscal stimuli in either japan or Each model operator, covering either a country or Germany on their activity levels, inflation rates, im region, prepares new forecasts and sends these, to ports, and trade balances. Particular attention has gether with all model revisions and data files (for centered on the trade aspect. A more sophisticated historical samples used in parameter estimation and policy alternative, one that is especially well-suited to for latest data used in forecasting), to the LINK Secre the entire LINK concept, is a coordinated policy in tariat, where all the models are tested on a single which two or more countries simultaneously under computer system to see if the individual center's re take policies designed to bring the world economy as sults can be duplicated. These pre-LINK forecasts are a whole towards some stated goals, such as better then assembled and solved on a world basis, in the payments balances, faster overall growth, or lower LINK mode, to generate post-LINK forecasts, usually overall inflation. (See L. R. Klein, V. Su, and P. for a three-year horizon. Recently, eight-year simula Beaumont [17].) tions have been completed. The coordinated policies might be either fiscal or Forecasts are sent to the various LINK centers for monetary. All the main LINK models of OEeD coun critical commentary and new information. During the tries have explicit fiscal policy variables or coeffi summer months, a completed forecast is made for the cients. Most also have monetary policy variables. It annual LINK meeting and, after the meeting, a final has been a major achievement of LINK to push each revision is made for public release. The forecast thus country model operator towards the best common achieves computable consistency through the LINK practice in model building. This has meant the intro algorithm and judgmental consistency by repeated duction on an increasing scale of monetary sectors in criticism, both in and out of LINK meetings. An up models to emulate those in the project who have, at dated version of the year-end forecast serves as input any time, proceeded furthest in this respect. for the spring meeting, and the first look at fresh As difficulties, especially in the form of persistent pre-LINK forecasts takes place there. payments imbalances, have become more apparent On several occasions, reviews of the accuracy of and prevalent in the world economy, countries have LINK forecasts have been made, both for world turned to protectionist policies-in pursuing their own DECEMBER 1979 53 self-interest, not the world's best interest. Accord opments. There is virtually no end to the possible ingly, the virtues of free trade under a liberal com designs of scenarios of external events. mercial system have been studied in LINK simulation In order to gain insight into the workings of exercises, by L. R. Klein and V. Su [19]. This study, in scenarios involving external disturbances, let us re effect, validates the time-honored propositions of view the issues of commodity price determination in Adam Smith on an international, macroeconomic LINK. Agricultural materials, fuels, and industrial basis. Since many new forms of protection are devel materials are all separately linked in the LINK system. oping, this is an interesting new area of LINK applica This means that export prices for these materials tion. must be generated in the models of producing coun It is relatively simple to simulate the LINK system or tries, many of which are less-developed. The factors parts of it under alternative exchange rate configura determining price transcend internal domestic affairs. tions, exogenously set. These show the impact of rates They should be generated through equating of world on system activity. Exchange rate policy can also be demand and supply. This is, in fact, done in a series analyzed in single country simulations. A number of of commodity market models constructed by F. G. studies of coordinated exchange-rate policy changes Adams and phased into the LINK system in an en or individual country changes have been carried out. larged model called COMLINK [1]. Prices, determined They show high degrees of sensitivity of trade and in world markets, affect export earnings of primary payments balances to these changes, especially for producing countries or areas. World demand de those yen, mark, and dollar policies. There is enorm pends on activity levels and other variables generated ous scope for future policy applications within the by the LINK system. This provides feedback into the rules of the new European Monetary System and with commodity models. On several occasions, it has been model specifications that endogenize exchange rates. found that prices generated by the world commodity The other major valuation change that has oc models were quite different from those being used in curred, and continues to occur, concerns energy LINK, without benefit of COMLINK results; therefore, pricing. Different OPEC pricing strategies and U.S. commodity analysis had an important influence on domestic energy policies have major worldwide ef the world economy outcome. fects. Simulations of LINK have shown that each 10 In addition to the foregoing policy simulations and per cent change in world oil prices has an approx scenarios, LINK has been used for analytical studies of imate effect of raising world inflation rates by about within- and between-country multipliers in response 0.25 per cent, lowering world economic growth rates to hypothetical domestic shocks. Price and income by about 0.2 per cent, and lowering the volume of responses to demand shocks in the form of govern world trade by about 0.75 per cent. Sensitivity (or ment spending increases were studied by B. G. multiplier) analysis of this sort has proven to be ex Hickman [5]. In these simulations, each national tremely useful to international policy makers. Many. model was shocked in turn and the responses were more complicated oil-price policy scenarios have also measured in both the originating country and the been evaluated. Among the most recent devel other industrialized countries. A complementary opments, scenarios with new OPEC pricing decisions study of the responses in the various countries to wage following the Iranian Revolution (with associated shocks in individual countries may be found in physical restraints) and decontrol in the United States Hickman and Lima [7], and further analysis of both domestic market have been executed. Intermediate to sets of simulations is contained in Hickman and long range effects of alternative energy prices must Schleicher [8]. The latter paper also considers the now be studied. implications of the principal finding from these mul Some of the policy studies made are highly realistic, tiplier experiments-that disturbances in large coun since they are interpretations of actual or prospective tries are spread out over so many trading partners policies that are up for discussion. Alternatively, that the transmission effects of individual country hypothetical scenarios, policy-oriented or otherwise, shocks are rather small-for the existence and syn have been worked out. The protectionist analysis, chronization of worldwide economic fluctuations. referenced above, is a hypothetical scenario, devel The paper brings other evidence to bear on this oped mainly to analyze the principle of trade question. liberalism and protectionism. Some scenarios are Apart from the LINK series of project volumes [2, prepared in response to external shocks that may 20, 21], and numerous articles about the project by potentially arise, such as a harvest failure, not con participants, there have been a number of doctoral trolled, but acted upon, in response to external devel- dissertations prepared at the University of Pennsyl- 54 VOLUME 33, NUMBERS 3/4 vania. Six are in preparation, and the two listed below tinues, but models of individual developing cou ntries, have been completed: like those presented at the recent meetings, will be Jorge Gana, An Automatic Program Generator for candidates for early introduction. Models are well Model Building in Social and Engineering Sciences, developed for Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, the Central Moore School of Electrical Engineering, University of American Common Market countries, some Per Pennsylvania, 1978. sian Gulf countries, and India, and it is intended that Keith N. Johnson, Balance of Payments Equilibrium they will be incorporated soon. and Equilibrating Exchange Rates in a World Economic Individual models for the Council of Mutual Eco Model, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, University of nomic Assistance (CMEA) countries in Eastern Pennsylvania, 1979. Europe have been estimated at the United Nations Apart from formal Ph.D. training, several young and are presently included in LINK. A new Polish economists from all over the world have been sent to model from the University of Lodz is being prepared LINK Central for training. Many have been from for introduction, through the efforts of Polish Europe, Japan, and Latin America, but the repre trainees who work at LINK Central and the Stanford sentation is now changing to be more internationally Center. In addition, attention is being given to the diversified. preparation of trade matrices among the CMEA countries of Eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R. The emphasis will be on classification and on the estima New directions tion of intra-CMEA trade. The most obvious and pressing need for LINK is As for the time horizon, the terminal year of simu incorporation of equations that generate exchange lation has now been pushed forward to 1985. This rates within the model itself. This line of research is enables us to examine intermediate-run cumulative being pursued at the main model centers separately, effects in dynamic multiplier analysis, and policy through equations for domestic financial flows, inter simulations or scenarios that involve significant dis national capital flows, and exchange rate determina tributed lag effects. Eventually, the horizon may be tion. In addition to this research at individual model pushed another five years into the future. This will be centers, it is also being pursued at LINK Central for especially important for energy analysis, and the the system as a whole, through the construction of study of long-term policies, such as those that search cross-country (cross-section) estimates of capital flows for instruments to bring about stable, noninflationary and exchange rate equations. The cross-sections have growth. been estimated for pooled years, 1973-77. In the The LINK system is complicated and very large. year-end LINK forecasts for 1978, exchange rates Over the years, a great deal of progress has been were endogenously determined, together with other made in streamlining the computer programs used, LINK variables, on a world scale for the first time. but this is a never-ending task. It is particularly chal As always, the research program of LINK reaches lenging to develop a high level programming lan out for new horizons, both in space and time. The guage so that the system is easier and cheaper to use. extension of the space horizon involves the introduc Some progress along these lines was made in the tion of new country models. At the present time, Jorge Gana dissertation cited above, but a new, pro model's are being introduced for the People's Re longed effort must be made in order to carry this public of China, Denmark, Greece, and Switzerland. work much further. 0 France has been represented until now by the POM POM model, built and maintained at the Free Univer References sity of Brussels. From 1979, a French model from 1. Adams, F. G. "Primary Commodity Markets in a World Paris will be introduced. In the near future, other Model System," in Stabilizing World Commodity Markets, F. G. Adams and S. A. Klein, editors. Lexington: Lexington models of individual countries will probably be intro Books, 1978, pages 83-104. duced. 2. Ball, R. J., editor. The International Linkage of National Eco At the March 1979 forecast meeting held at the nomic Models: Contributions to Economic Analysis. Amsterdam: United Nations in New York, a full day was devoted North-Holland, 1973. to modeling and forecasting for developing countries. 3. Beaumont, Paul, Ingmar Prucha, and Victor Filatov. "Per Beyond the area models of the developing countries formance of the LINK System: 1970 versus 1975 Base Year Trade Share Matrix." Empirical Economics, 4: 11-42, 1979. that are now in LINK, work started some two years ago 4. Helliwell, John F. Discussion of "Disturbances to the Inter on building an Asia-Pacific sublinkage of models of national Economy," in After the Phillips Curoe: Persistence of individual developing countries. That effort con- High Inflation and High Unemployment, Robert M. Solow, DECEMBER 1979 55 editor. Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1978, 13. --, C. Moriguchi, and A. Van Peeterssen. "The LINK pages 104-16. Model of World Trade with Applications to 1972-73," in 5. Hickman, Bert G. "International Transmission of Economic International Trade and Finance, P. Kenen, editor. New York: Fluctuations and Inflation," in International Aspects of Cambridge University Press, 1975, pages 453-483. Stabilization Policies, Albert Ando et al., editors. Boston: 14. ---, and K. N. Johnson. "LINK Simulations of Interna Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1974, pages 201-231. tional Trade: An Evaluation of the Effects of Currency 6. --. "Project LINK in 1972: Retrospect and Prospect," in Realignment." Journal of Finance, 617-30, May 1974. Modelling the Economy, G. A. Renton, editor. London, 1975, 15. ---. "Five Year Experience of Linking National pages 657-669. Econometric Models and of Forecasting International 7. ---, and Anthony Lima. "Price Determination and Trade," in Quantitative Studies of International Economic Rela Transmission of Inflation in the LINK System," in Modelling tions, H. Glejser, editor. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1976, the International Transmission Mechanism, John A. Sawyer, pages 1-24. editor. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1979. 16. --, K. N.Johnson,J. Gana, M. Kurose, and C. Weinberg. 8. --, and Stefan Schleicher. "The Interdependence of Na "Applications of the LINK System," in The Models of Project tional Economies and the Synchronization of Economic LINK, Jean L. Waelbroeck, editor. Amsterdam: North Fluctuations: Evidence from the LINK Project." Holland, 1976, pages 1-16. Weltwirtschaftsliches Archiv, 114(4): 642-708, 1978. 17. --, V. Su, and P. Beaumont. "Coordination of Interna 9. Johnson, K. N. and L. R. Klein. "Error Analysis of the LINK tional Fiscal Policies and Exchange Rate Revaluations," in Model," in Modelling the International Transmission Mech Modelling the International Transmission Mechanism, John A. anism, John A. Sawyer, editor. Amsterdam: North-Holland, Sawyer, editor. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1979, pages 1979, pages 45-71. 143-159. 10. ---, and A. Van Peeterssen. "Solving and Simulating the 18. --, M. Politi, and V. Su o"Scenqrioofa World Wide Grain LINK System," in The Models of Project LINK, Jean L. Wael Shortage," LINK memorandum, July 1978. broeck, editor. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1976. 19. --, and V. Suo "Protectionism: An Analysis from Project 11. Klein, L. R. Comment in "The Trade Effects of the 1971 LINK." Journal of Policy Modeling, 1:5-35, January 1979. Currency Realignment," by W.. H. Branson. Brookings 20. Sawyer, John A., editor. Modelling the International Transmis Papers on Economic Activity, 1 :59-65, 1972. sion Mechanism. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1979. 12. ---. "Project LINK: Entering a New Phase." Items, 21. Waelbroeck, Jean L. The Models of Project LINK. Amsterdam: 27(2):13-16, June 1973. North-Holland, 1976. The Accident at Three Mile Island: Social Science Perspectives by C. P. Wolf* The accident on March 28, 1979 at the Three Mile Training, was appointed chairman of the Commis Island nuclear power facility near Middletown, Penn sion, and Cora Bagley Marrett, University of Wiscon sylvania forcibly and dramatically brought into public sin, currently a member of the Council's board of question the adequacy of reactor safeguards and the directors, was selected as one of the twelve commis social controls for insuring their effectiveness. It sioners. In order to bring the perspectives of the strikingly revealed deficiencies both in emergency social sciences to bear upon the work of the Commis preparedness and in crisis management by public sion, the Council convened a panel of consultants to authorities and private interests alike. It freshly re prepare a report that would identify and illustrate kindled the nuclear debate throughout our society areas of social inquiry useful to an investigation of the and the world. To characterize the accident as a "nat accident. This article is an account of that activity and ural experiment" from which managers, regulators, its results; a book-length revision of the Council's and experts can learn does not describe the anxiety report to the Commission is being prepared for pub and anguish of its unwilling participants. Neverthe lication. less, physical and social scientists have both a profes When the Commission was established and its pro- sional interest and a social responsibility to analyze * The author is research professor of social sciences at the the accident and appraise the lessons to be learned Polytechnic Institute of New York. He served as principal con from it. sultant to the Council's project on Three Mile Island; David L. The appointment of the President's Commission on Sills, executive associate at the Council, served as principal inves tigator; and Vivien B. Shelanski, Mamaroneck, New York, served the Accident at Three Mile Island provided the as editorial consultant. Mr. Sills was chairman, and Mr. Wolf a Council with a special stimulus. John G. Kemeny, member, of the Sociopolitical Risk/Impact Resource Group of the president of Dartmouth College, who had previously National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Nuclear and Alter served on the Council's Committee on Mathematical nate Energy Systems (CONAES). 56 VOLUME 33, NUMBERS 3/4 1980 New York, NY, USA 1980 Perugia, Italy 1981 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Meetings March 3-5, 1981 United Nations, New York AGENDA March 3, 1981 AoMo I0:00 Introduction and Welcome, Assistant Secretary General, P. Dhar 10:15 World Economic Overview, L.R. Klein ii:00 Japan, Chikashi Moriguchi 11:30 Germany, Wilhelm Krelle 12:00 United Kingdom, William Robinson 12:30 -Lunch- P,M. 2:00 United States, L.R. Klein 2:30 Canada, Thomas Maxwell 3:00 Italy, Anna Stagni 3:30 France, Mathieu Feroldi -coffee/tea- 4:30 Belgium, Jean Wae!broeck 5:00 Netherlands, Jacob J. Post 6:00 -Reception, United Nations- March 4, 1981 !A.M. 9:30 An Econometric Model of Nigeria (with Nigerian Outlook), Sam Olofin i0:00 Outlook for Korea, Yen Kyun Wang 10:30 Outlook for Mexico, Enrique Sanchez -coffee/tea- 11:30 Outlook for Venezuela, Pedro Palma 12:00 Developing Countries, Kenneth Ruffing 12:30 -Lunch- Project LINK Meetings March 3-5, 1981 United Nations, New York AGENDA Page two March 4, 1981 (continued) P.M. ÿ° i ÿ 4ÿ ÿ 2:00 Outÿlomk_forPacificÿar East, Sÿhiÿni-ch±Ichimura 2:30 China, Lawrence J. Lau 3:00 Australia, Phyllis Rosendale 3:30 CMEA Countries, Antonio Costa -coffee/tea- 4:30 LINK Projections to 1990 Baseline Case, L.R. Klein ÿ Scenarios, Victor Filatov Shahrokh Fardoust Michael Papaioannou 7:30 -dinner- March 5, 1981 AoMo J 9:30 Austria, Gerhard Munduch i0:00 Denmark, Poul Uffe Dam /10:30 Finland, Alpo Willman ii:00 Sweden, Svante Johansson ii:30 Greece, Ulysses Avramides 12:00 Switzerland, Jean-Christian Lambelet 12:30 Preliminary Forecast Review, L.R. Klein Richard Simes Pascal Voisin i:00 -lunch- P.M. 2:00 Research Plans and August Meeting Plans -Adjournment- 1981 La Hulpe, Belgium LINK ÿ{EETING August 31 - September 4 1981 La Hulpe, Be lgimÿ AGENDA August 31 WORLD ECONOÿ{IC O[ÿLOOK A.T'{. brld Summary and North America L.R. Klein Japan and Australia C. ÿ{origmchi Western Europe and U.K. J. Walbroeck Developing Countries Overview K. Ruffing P .ÿ{. Developing S. Olo[in Latin &nerica P. [)alma OÿA ÿd PRC A. Costa September 1 A.bL The TROLL System, ]ÿ Exposition E. I Stochastic Simulation of a Model of Italy M. Tivegna & C. Bianchi P. ÿ 'I. Linkage of Disequilibciumÿ ÿodels : Intro The Netl]cr].amls Case '1. I(oo iman The I3elgian Case l I. Suessens i) f s cuss ant (',. Laroque 3 6 -2 - September 2 A.k'i. Short Policy Simulations o£ LINK P. Voisin, R. Simes and L.R. Klein Medium Term Simulations of Purchasing Power Parity in LINK V. Filatov, S. Fardoust and L.R. Klein ,hltiplier Decomposition within LINK V. Filatov and B Hickman P.M. SIGgFSEEING September 3 S]%POSIUH ON INTERNATIONAL LINKAGE ÿDDELS A.M. COMET G. d'Alcantara, ÿ@. Italianer DES]",IOS A. Dramais EPA L[NK A. Amano, T. Sasaki, Sawada P 24. Prelimtrmry Evidence of Eÿ{J from Eurolink P. RamJzzi S imu l a t ions I- KF1]P,ÿ-L[NK I,. Llewe]lyn and L. Smmÿerson 'PStJKUI%% FI]\S i. Aiso, S. Shishido -3 - The New Model of the Bank of Finland P. Kukkenon, F. Tarl P.H. Alternative Hethod of Trade Linkage' K. Sarma Energy Price & Long Run Growth Path C. Horiguchi Bus iness ÿ,leeting Research Plans. 1982 New York, NY, USA 1982 Weisbaden, Germany Revised Agenda for PROJECT LINK Meeting September 27 - October i, 1982 Hotel "Schwarzer Bock" Kranzplatz 12 D-6200 Wiesbaden, West Germany Telef. 06121-3821 Telex 04186640 Sunday, Sept. 26: Arrival. Open bar, 7:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 27: World and Regional Outlooks. Chair: B. Hickman. -- a.m. Opening of meeting World Outlook - C.A. Bollino, L. Klein, P. Pauly, C. Petersen Japan and Australia - C. Moriguchi China - L. Lau - p.m. Western Europe - J. Waelbroeck Developing Countries - K. Ruffing CPE Countries - A. Costa Tuesday, Sept. 28: ecial Session on Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Dÿermination at the Bundesbank, Frankfurt Invited Papers : M. ÿkao, Bank of Japan K. Sÿiltknecht, Schweizerische Nationalbank, Zurich P. Hoÿer, Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System, \ Washington, D.C. K. Marwÿh, Carleton University, Ottawa A. Amano,ÿ Kobe University W. Krelle\ÿnd H. Sarrazin , Bonn University J. TownendÿBÿnk of England Schedule: 8:15 a.m. Leaving Wiesba&ÿn by bus to Frankfurt 9:30 a.m. Opening of the ÿssion by the vice-president of the Bundesbaÿ, Dr. Schlesinger. Chair: W. Krelle I:00 p.m. Lunch at the Casiÿ9 or guest house of the Bundesbank 2:00 p.m. Visit of the NumisMatic Museum of the Bundesbank 3:00 p.m. Afternoon Session. ÿhair : L. Klein 6:00 p.m. Reception by the Bun@ÿsbank. Afterwards back by bus to Wiesbaden \\ÿ Tuesday, Sept. 28: Special Session on Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Determination at the Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-StraBe 14, D-6000 Frankfurt/Main 50 8:45 a.m. Departure by bus from the hotel to the Bundesbank, Frankfurt 9:30 a.m. Opening of the session by the vice-president of the Bundesbank, Dr. Schlesinger Chair: W. Krelle Papers: I. John C. Townend with Graham Hocche, "Problems in Exchange Rate Modelling: The Case of Sterling" J 2. Mitsuhiro Fukao, "The Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market" J 3. Kurt Schiltknecht and J.P. Bÿ5ÿelin, "Do the Exchange Rates React Differently in Case that the Change of Monetary Policy is Considered as Permanent or Transitory?" Peter Hooper, "Alternative Approaches to General Equili- brium Modelling of Exchange Rates and Capital Flows: The MCM Experience" 1:00 p.m. Lunch at the Bundesbank 2:00 p.m. Visit of the Numismatik Museum of the Bundesbank 3:00 p.m. Afternoon session. Chair: L. Klein Papers: ÿ ÿo /1. Kanta Marwÿ, "A Model of Foreign Exchange Markets: Estimating Capital Flows and Exchange Rates" 2. Akihiro Amano, "A Structural Approach to Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Determination" . Dieter Sondermann, "Currency Options - Theoretical Foundations and Practicability" , 4. Wilhelm Krelle and Hermann Sarrazin, "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows in the German Model" 6:00 p.m. Reception by the Bundesbank Afterwards: Bus back to the hotel, Wiesbaden. Wednesday, Sept. 29: 9:00 a.m. Morninq session. Chair: C. Moriguchi Papers: I. L. Klein, United States Policy Options 2. P. Hollinger and B. Mariash, Multi-Country Computer Progrÿg: Troll-System 11:00 a.m. Coffee breÿ 12:15 a.m. Lunch Afternoon: Bus and boat excursion on the Rhine River I :OO p.m. Bus leaves the hotel Bus frcm Wiesbaden through the Rheingau to Rÿdesheim 2:00 p.m. Boat frcm Rÿdesheim to St. Goarshausen 3:50 p.m. Change to the bus, bus ride to Rddesheim, Niederwaiddenkmal, coffee break, back to Wiesbaden 7:00 p.m. Arrival at the hotel, Wiesbaden 7:30 p.m. Dinner at the hotel Thursday, Sept. 30: Special Session on Model Simulation of North-South- Relations. Econcÿic Problems of the 1980's 9:00 a.m. Morning session. Chair: Bert Hickman 1. A. Onishi, "Projections of the World Econcÿy in the North-South Context, 1981 - 1990" 2. S. Shishido, "Aid vs. Trade in the 1980's- Long-Term Simulations with the Tsukuba-FAIS World Econometric Model" 11:00 a.m. Coffee break 3. A. Costa and A. Nikolaev, "Long-Term Socio-Econcmetric Perspectives" 1:00 p.m. Lunch 3:00 p.m. Afternoon session. 4. J. Waelbroeck, "Growth and Trade of Developing Countries: A General Equilibrium Analysis" 4:30 p.m. Coffee break 5ÿ C. Bollino, PÿPauly, and C.ÿPetersenÿi"Alternative Primary CcrsrodityPrice Patterns in DevelopingCountries: Simulations with the LINK-System" 7: O0 p.m. Dinner Friday, Oct. I 9:00 a.m. Morning session. Chair: L. Klein Papers: 1. S. Mÿller and S. Nakamura, The BQnnQuarterly.Model 2. A. Costa . . andmÿaÿr, UCPE-ÿe±s: N ...... mew Resuvltsÿÿ.L ÿ i 3. A. Pul.ido and A. Castilla, A Summaryof the UAMEconcmÿtric Model and Forecast for the Spanish Econcÿy 11:00 a.m. Coffee break 1:00 p.m. Lunch 3:00 p.m. Afternoon session. Chair: L. Klein Research Plans Business Meeting 4:30 p.m. Coffee break 7:0Op.m. Dinner End of the conference. 1983 New York, NY,USA 1984 New York, NY, USA 1985 New York, NY, USA 1986 New York, NY, USA LINK Project ]ÿ{eetin[ New York 12-14 March 1986 File I Project Link Iÿeetingÿ - Programme - List of participants Link System - Link Forecast Record 1976-1984, University of Pennsylvania - Bilateral trade flows annex tables Project Link - Commodity Prices - How do Exchange Rates Affect Primary Commodity Prices F.G. Adams and S. Claessens OUTLOOKs: Africa - Economic Out!ook for Africa (1985-1987) S. Olofin - Economic Outlook for Nigeria (1986-1988) S. Olofin N. America - The Economic Outlook for the United States 1986-1990 L.R. Klein Canada - Canadian Economic Outlook - Spring 1986 P. Dungan and A. Plouÿde Latin America - Economic Situation in Latin America J. Vial Asia - Current Economic Prospects for Selected Asian Economies J.M. Dowling, Jr. Pacific Basin Economy C. Moriguchi The Economic Outlook for the Republic of China (Taiwan), Hongkong, Indonesia, %he Republic of Korea and the Philippines J.}1. Dowling, Jr. ,oo/eea - 2- ,o,/i,, sia (contd.) - The Economic Outlook for Taiwan, R.0.C. Tzong-shian Yu, Chung-Hua and Yung-san Lee - Republic of China (Taiwan) - Pÿcroeconomic forecasts for 1986-1991 - Chinese Economic Development (People's Republic) Weiwen Gu(Ku) and Murong Fan - China's Present Economic Situation and Outlook Fan Murong and Gu Weiwen - Philippines - The Cyprus Economy T. Anastassiades - India: Medium-term Economic Outlook K. Krishnamurty, V. Pandit and D.U. Sastry W, Europe The Austrian Economy: 1985-1991 K. Neusser Economic Outlook for Belgium 1986-1990 M. Dewatripon% and A. Senhadji Forecast Summary: Denmark Paul Uffe Dam Finland: Summary of the BOF3 Model Forecast 1986-1991 Timo Tyravÿinen Economic Outlook for France 1986-1987 A. Kadjar Economic Outlook and Alternative ÿenarios for France 1986-1987 R. Courbis - Outook for Germany -- Recent Developments and Prospects for the Greek Economy P. Koutsouvelis !taly's Economic Outlook University of Bologna The Netherlands and the World Economic Outlook 1986-1990 A. Bakhoven Forecast Summary: Norway K. N. Kjaer The Swiss Outlook for 1986 and a Peep at 1987 J-C. Lambele% Spanish Economic Outlook: Analysis and Forecast 1985-1989 University of Madrid Sweden 1986-1987 Johan A. Lybeck -3- Oceania - The Australian Economy 1985-1990 - Short--term Outlook National Institute of Economic and Industry Research CÿA - Economic Outlook for CIÿA countries DIESA, New York - The Hungarian Economy 1985-1991, Performance and Outlook - Prospectives of the Polish Economy 1986-1990 Wladyslaw ]ÿ[elfe LII[< Project }ÿeeting New York 12-14 }ÿrch 1986 File II OUTLOOK - Alternative Scenarios - Country Tables - Summary - Graphics 1987 New York, NY, USA 1987 Melbourne, Australia World Project I.IN K Conference Melbourne Australia 1987 WORLD PROJECT LINK CONFERENCE 31 August- 4 September 1987 Venue: State BankVictoria Level 41 State Bank Centre 385 Bourke Street NIEIR Melbourne State BankÿVictoria / World Project LINK Conference MelbourneAustralia 1987 PROGRAMME Monday August 31 9.00 am Welcome Address Mr R.A.Jolly, Treasurer, Victoria World Economic Outlook • LINK Forecast and Scenarios LENK Central • North America L.R. Klein, Penn • Western Europe U. Westpha!, Hamburg 12.30-1.30pm LUNCH / 2.00 pm Topic: Australia and the Pacific Basin • Japan C. Moriguchi, Osaka • Short-and Medium-Term Forecast for B. Bray, NIEIR Australia • The NIEIR Model and Policy Studies P. Brain, NIEIR • Trade Structures in the Pacific Basin K. Lee/H.Y. Li, Penn 5.00 pm CLOSE 7.00-10.30 pm Reception and Dinner hosted by State Bank Victoria in the Great Hall of the National Gallery NIEIR State Bank Victoria / \ World Project LINK Conference Melbourne Australia 1987 Tuesday September 1 9.00 am Regional Outlook • Asia I.P. Verbiest, ESCAP M. DoMing, ADAB • Latin America J. Vial, Penn P. Palma, Metroeconomica • Africa P. Bugembe, ECA/ S. Olifin, Ibadan • CMEA A. Nicholaev, UN 12.30-1;30 pm LUNCH 2.00 pm Topic: Intemational Economic Policy • A Small Forecasting Model for Non-Oil A. Amano, Kobe Primary Commodities • Commodity Market Impacts of U.S. W. Meyers, Iowa Agricultural Policies: Modelling State Issues and Results • Current Policy Issues in World M. Kirby, BAE Agricultural Trade • Factors Influencing Recent Commodity F.G. Adams/J. Vial Price Movements Penn 5.30 pm CLOSE Evening Free - Own arrangements to visit Melbourne restaurants NIEIR State Bank Victoria World Project LINKConference Melbourne Australia 1987 Wednesday September 2 8.30 am Topic: Worldwide Financial Deregulation • Policy Modelling in Global Financial L. Klein, Penn Markets • Worldwide Financial Deregulation: M. Lewis, Flinders Perspectives from a Small Economy and Nottingham • Financial Deregulation: The Swedish J. Lybeck, S wecLB ank Experience • Financial Deregulation: The Japanese C. Moriguchi, Osaka Experience 11.30 am Leave for excursion and lunch at Fergusson's Vineyards, Yarra Glen and visit to Healesville Sanctuary. Australia Wildlife / 6.00 pm Return to Melbourne Evening Free - Own arrangements NIEIR State Bank Victoria World Project LINK Conference Melbourne Australia 1987 Thursday September 3 8.30 am Topic: Unemployment - A Re-examination Keynesian and Classical Unemployment B. Hickman, Stanford in Four Countries Unemployment, Vacancies, and the P. Smith, LBS Long-Term Unemployed Japanese Unemployment in Comparative H. Eguchi, Perspective Hitotsubashi Univ Efficiency Wages and Unemployment P. Pauly, Penn Persistence 12.00-1.00 pm LUNCH 1.30pm Topic: Issues in Intemational Economics • A Model of Exchange Rates, Money, and D. Richard, World Price Interactions in Open Industrial Bank Countries • Tariff Gains between the US, the C.E. Petersen, IBM EEC and the Pacific Basin Italy • A Simulation of the Chinese Economy L. Lau, Stanford Under Market-Determining Allocation Mechanisms • The Year 2000: China's Macroeconomic Zhang Yah, SEIC Model Beijing 4.00 pm CLOSE 5.30-7.00pm Late afternoon reception by the Governor, State of Victoria, His Excellency Dr Davis McCaughey and Mrs McCaughey at Government House Evening Free - Own arrangements. NIEIR State Bank./Victoria World Project LINK Conference Melbourne Australia 1987 Friday September 4 9.00 am Topic: Issues in Modelling and International Economics VAR Models and Dynamic Linear R. Rabemananjara, Structural Models INSEE Cointegration and Macroeconomic E. Heinesen Modelling: the Relationship Between Denmarks Stats Consumption, Income, and Wealth in Denmark Causal Structures in World Trade S. Schleicher, Graz Savings, Debts and Deficits: The E. Reis, Ipea,/Impes Brazilian Economy in the 1980s 12.30-1.30 pm LUNCH 2.00 pm Topic: Panel Session with Session Chairmen Questions and answers about the major D. Ironmonger topics of the Annual Meeting of with L.R. Klein/ World Project LINK B. HickmanfP. Pauly et al • Business Meeting • Research Plans 3.30 pm CLOSE NIEIR State Bank' Victoria .j J" 1988 New York, NY, USA Project LINE SprlngMeetlng March 7-9, 1988 United Nations Headquarters, New York Conference Room #2 Prellmlnaÿ arch 7 I0:00 a.m. Welcome Address Mr. Rafeeuddin Ahmed USG, Int. Economic & Social Affairs World Economic Outlook LINK Central Discussion I:00 p.m. Lunch at U.N. Delegates' Dining Room 2:30 p.m. Regional Outlook --North America L.R. Klein --Japan C. Moriguchi --Western Europe G. Dicks 6:00 p.m. Reception Hosted by Mr. GSran Ohlin ASG for Development Research & Policy Analysis UN, DC2, 22nd floor Conference Room Tu___esday, March 8 9:00 a.ÿ. Regional 0utlook --Asia J.P. Verbles t / M. Dowllng --Latin America J. Vial/P. Palma --Africa P. Bugembe/ S. Olofin --Centrally Planned Economies U .N./DIESA LUNCH 2:30 p.m. Global Outlook International Commodity Markets F.G. Adams UNCTAD World Commodity Outlook B. Marin-Curtoud World Agricultural Markets W. Meyers! S. Johnson IMF World Outlook C. Adams World Bank View R. King Summary Evaluation of LINK World Outlook 7:00 p.m. Dinner at "Uncle Tang's" Wednesdÿ 9:00 a.m. Special Papers The LINK Long-Term Projection L.R. Klein Medium-Term Projections D. Walker The Review of 1987 and the Outlook Wu Jiapei of 1988 for the Economic Development and Reform in China Modeling, Forecasting, and Improving J. Gapinski Yugoslav Economic Performance Note: At some point in the morning, Martin Meyerson (University of Pennsylvania) will give a presentation on video-conferencing. LUNCH 2:30 p.m. Closing Session Business Meeting Research Plans 1988 Seoul, Rep. of Korea Tentative Programs & Schedule Sunday. November 6 09:00 Participants' Arrival 20:00-21:00 Cocktail Party at Swiss Grand Hotel Monday, November 7 08:10-06:50 Leave Hotel for KDi 09:00-09:30 Opening Remarks "Prospects for Korean Economic Growth and Restructuring" (Dr. Bon Ho Koo, President, KDI) 09:30-10:30 World Economic Outlook (Prof. L.R. Klein and Prof. P. Pauly, Univ. of Pa.) 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-11:30 World Economic Outlook (cont.) "The Outlook for Commodities" (Prof. F.G. Adams, Univ. of Pa.) 11:30-13:00 Panel Discussion on Current Problems of the World Economy Participants: Dr. Bon Ho Koo, Prof. F.G. Adams, Dr. P. Armington, Prof. B.G. Hickman, Prof. L.R. Klein, Prof. C. Moriguchi, Prof. P. Pauly, Prof. J. Waelbroeck. 13:00-14:30 Lunch Break 14:30-16:00 Regional Outlook (Presentations by national representatives) Europe and North America Asia and Pacific Basin 16:00-16:30 Break 16:30-17:30 Regional Outlook(cont.) (Presentations by national representatives) Latin America and Africa Centrally Planned Economies 18:00-18:30 Leave KDI for Dinner 18:30-20:30 Dinner hosted by Dr. Woong Bae Ra, Deputy Prime Minister, and Dr. Bon Ho Koo, President of KDI. 21:00-21:30 Return to Hotel Tuesday, November 8 08:10-08:50 Leave Hotel for KDI 09:00-10:00 Invited Lecture /' "A Strategy for Global and LDC Modeling with Evidence from Exÿng Systems" (Dr. Paul Armington,,O The World Bank) 10:00-10:30 Model Comparison "The Model Comparison Seminar: An Introduction" (Prof. L.R. Klein, Univ. of Pa.) 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-12:30 Model Comparison (cont.) ,/, "Impact of Economic Environment on Trade and Economic Development: A Summary of Simulation Results" (Prof. F.G. Adams, Univ. of Pa.) ÿ"ÿ i:'-' '": ÿ ÿbÿ ÿ , ', ')" Model Builders' Responses -/--,; ÿ ÿ...,. ,? ,ir , , 12:30-14:30 Lunch Break 14:30-16:00 Model Comparison (cont.) Model Builders' Responses (cont.) 16:00-16:30 Break 7/ \.p 16:30-17:30 Model Comparison (cont.) "Principles of Model Comparisons" (Prof. B.G. Nickman, Stanford University) General Discussion of Model Comparison Issues 18:00-18:30 Leave KDI for Dinner 18:30-20:30 Dinner hosted by Mr. Kun Kim, Governor of the Bank of Korea 21:00-21:30 Return to Hotel Wednesday, November 9 08:10-08:50 Leave Hotel for KDI 09:00-10:30 Model Comparison (cont.) "Impact of Policy in Econometric Models" (Dr. J.P. Verbiest, ESCAP) "LINK Software for Model Simulation and Analysis" (Prof. H.Y. Li and Prof. P.F. Hong, Univ. of Pa.) "A Quarterly Macro Model of the Korean Economy" (Dr. Jeong Ho Hahm, Bank of Korea) 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-12:30 Model Comparison (cont.) ,/ "The KDI Model of the Korean Economy" (Dr. Woo Kyu Park and Dr. Sung Tae Ro, K.D.I.) / "A Macroeconometric Growth Model of the Korean Economy: Preliminary Results" (Prof. Hak Kil Pyo, Seoul National Univ.) "The Yonsei Quarterly Macroeconometric Model" (Prof. Sung Shin Han, Yonsei Univ.) 12:30-13:00 Model Comparison (cont.) Summary and Plans for Future Work (Prof. L.R. Klein and Prof. F.G. Adams, Univ. of Pa.) 13:00-13:50 Lunch Break 13:50-14:30 Leave KDi for Secret Garden 14:30-15:50 Sightseein 15:50-16:30 Leave Secret Garden for the Main Stadium 16:30-17:00 Sight =ng 17:00-17:10 Leaje the Main Stadium for Olympic Park / 17:10-18:00 Sÿseeing 18:00 Return to Hotel Thursday, November 10 08:10-08:50 Leave Hotel for KDI 09:00-10:30 Topic: Trade Structure J "Recent Structural Changes in Import and Export Behavior: Japanese Experience" (Prof. C. Moriguchi, Osaka Univ.) "Changes in Japan's International Trade Structure and Macro-Economic Modeling" (Dr. T. Ikenaga, Bank of Japan) "Global Effects of Agricultural Agreements" (Prof. W. Meyers, Iowa State Univ.) 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-13:00 Topic: Trade Policies / "Impact of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EEC on the World Economy" (Prof. J. Waelbroeck, Univ. Libre de Bruxelies) / "The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement: An Evaluation" (Prof. P. Dungan and Prof. T. Wilson, Univ. of Toronto) "Optimal Tariff Conditions" (Dr. C.E. Petersen, The World Bank) General Discussion on Modeling Technique for the Analysis of Trade Policies , 13:00-,14:30 Lunch Break 14:30-16:00 Topics in Applied Macroeconomics o "An Analysis of Postwar U.S. Consumption and Saving" (Prof. M. Boskin and Prof. L. Lau, Stanford Univ.) j" "Investment and Employment Equations: Theoretical Form and Coi nteg ration Tests" (Dr. F. Maurel, INSEE) ¢ "The Interest Rate Spread as the Determinant of Investment in Korea" (Dr. Woo Kyu Park, KDI) 16:00-16:30 Break 16:30-17:30 Topics in Econometrics "Model Validation Through Stochastic Simulation and Regression" (Prof. R. Mariano, Univ. of Pa.) '/ "Adaptive Filtering Modeling" An Alternative Paradigm for Structural Change" (Prof. S. Schleicher, Univ. of Graz) 18:00-18:30 Leave KDI for Dinner 18:30-20:30 Dinner hosted by Dr. Duck Woo Nam, former Prime Minister and current chairman of the Korea Trade Association 21:00-21:30 Return to Hotel Friday, November 11 08:10-08:50 Leave Hotel for KDI 09:00-10:30 Topic: Debt "Commodity Price Contractions, Debt and Economic Growth in Developing Economies: The Venezuelan Case" (Dr. P. Palma, METROECONOMICA) "The Macroeconomics of Debt-Equity Conversion in Brazil" (Dr. E. Reis, IPEA/IMPES) J "Saving, Investment and External Debt in Korea" (Dr. Won Am Park, KDI) 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-12:00 Topic: New Trends in Exchange Rate Modeling / "A Neo-Classical Model of Bilateral Exchange Rates" (Prof. G. Jump, Univ. of Toronto) © "Some Empirical Aspects of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Models" (Prof. P. Pauly, Univ. of Pa.) 12:00-13:00 Topic: issues in Development Economics J "Financial Repression, Financial Development and Structure of Savings in Pakistan" (Dr. A. Khan, PIDE) \ji "Parameters of Growth in a Developing Mixed Economy: The Indian Experience" (Dr. K. Krishnamurty and Dr. K. Sharma, Institute of Economic Growth and Prof. V. Pandit, Delhi School of Economics) 13:00-14:30 Lunch Break 14:30-16:30 Topic: Issues in Modeling - "A Model of Oil-Producing Arab Countries" (Prof. W. Welfe, Univ. of Lodz) / "The Chinese Model of the SEIC" (Dr. Youcai Liang, SEIC, Beijing) 16:00-16:30 Break 16:30-17:30 Business Meeting Research Plans 18:00-20:30 Garden Party at KDI hosted by Dr. Bon Ho Koo, President of KDI 20:30-20:40 Return to Hotel 1989 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Spring Meeting March 6 8, 1989 held at United Nations Headquarters New York Conference Room 4 PreliminaryAgenda Monday, March 6 I0:00 Welcome Address G. Ohlin 10:15 Global Outlook -i:00 World Economic Outlook Project LINK --Baseline --Policy Scenarios World Bank Outlook S. Fardoust International Monetary Fund F. Larsen I:00- Lunch in Delegates' Dining Room 2:30 2:30- Commodity Markets 5:30 World Oil Markets C. Constantinou World Agricultural Markets W. Meyers Non-Agricultural Commodities F.G. Adams Regional Outlook North America L.R. Klein Western Europe LINK Representatives Japan and Rest of OECD LINK Representatives Reception hosted by DIESA, UN-DC2, 22nd floor Tuesday, March 7 9:30- Topic: Price Stabilization Programs 12:30 A Proposal for Growth Without J. Baca Inflation in Latin America Stabilization Experience in Israel Y. Sheinin Three Years After Lessons from the Mexican Experience A. Beltran del Rio General Discussion 12:30 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30- Topic: Debt Strategies 5:30 Debt Conversion in Chile J. Vial Real Alternatives for Handling the P. Palma Latin American Debt Problem Costs and Benefits of Various Debt LINK Central Proposals: LINK Results Panel Discussion with L.R. Klein, K. Ruffing, J. Baca, A. Beltran del Rio, S. Islam. Evening: Dinner at "Uncle Tang's" Wednesday, March 8 9:30- Regional Outlook 12:30 Asia J.P. Verbiest / M. Dowling Latin America J. Vial / P. Palma Africa DIESA / S. Olofin Centrally Planned Economies M. Gronicki 12:30 Lunch Break -2:00 2:00- Modeling Issues 4:00 On Model Building and Forecasting V. Dadayam for Centrally Planned Economies A. Smyshlyaev Progress Report on Installation of DIESA the LINK Model at UN Business Meeting Research Plans 1989 Paris, France PROJECT LINK FALL MEETING August 28 - September 1, 1989 held at INSEE, Paris Agenda Monday, August 28 9h.00 - 9h.30 Opening Remarks J.C. Milleron (Directeur General de I'INSEE) 9h.30 - 10h.30 World Economic Outlook Chair : L.R. Klein (University of Pennsylvania) "World Outlook and Policy Alternatives" Project LINK 10h.30 - 11 h.00 Break 11 h.00 - 12h.30 Work Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair : L.R. Klein (University of Pennsylvania) 'q'he Current World Bank Outlook" S. Fardoust World Bank "The Current IMF Outlook" N. Chrimes IMF Agricultural Markets W. Meyers Iowa State University !2h.30 - 14h.00 Lunch Break 14h.00 - 15h.30 Regional Outlook: Centrally Planned Economies Chair : B.G. Hickman (Stanford University) "Perestroika and the Soviet Economy/' S. Menshikov Prague Centrally Planned Economies 15h.30 - 16h.00 Break 16h.00 - !7h.30 Regional Outlook : North America and Japan Chair : P. Pauly (University of Toronto) Summary : North America L.R. Klein University of Pennsylvania Summary :Japan C. Moriguchi Osaka University Evening 18h.00 Get together drink at the hotel (invited persons only) o Tuesday, Auguÿ 29 9h.00 - 10h.30 Regional Outlook : Europe Chair : C. Moriguchi (Osaka University) "What Are the Constraints to European E. Malinvaud Economic Growth" Collÿge de France Summary : Western Europe J. WaBlbroeck Universite de Bruxelles 10h.30 - 11 h.00 Break 1 ! h.00 - 12h.30 Regional Outlook • Europe (cont.), Latin America and Asia Chair : D. Ironmonger (NIEIR, Melbourne) Western Europe : General Discussion Summary : Asia J.P. Verbiest / M. Dowting ADB Summary : Latin America J. Vial / P. Pal ma CIEPLAN & METROECONOMICA 12h.30 - 14h.00 Lunch Break 14h.00 - 15h.30 Development Porspects for Africa Chair : K, Ruffing (U.N.) "Financial Constraints for African Development" S. Shapuri USDA 'q'he Asian NIC's Growth Model as an Alternative S. OIofin Development Strategy in Africa" University of Ibadan "Productive Efficiency of Public Entreprises P. Plane in Developing Countries" CNRS 15h,30 - 16h.00 Break 16h.00 - 17h.30 Issues in International Economics Chair : A, Brender(CEPII) "Internal and External Effects of Policy B.'G. Hickman Shocks in the LINK Models of the Big 7" Stanford University "Macroeconomic Interdependencies in Europe : H. Sterdyniak An Analysis With the MIMOSA Model" J. Pisani-Ferry OFCE & (3EPII "Effects of Japanese Economic Growth on the M .Toida/C.Ya majiiY.Liang Chinese Economy : Results of the China-Japan IDE & SEtC Link Model" Evening : Dinner hosted by INSEE (invited persons only) . Wednesday, Auguÿ 30 9h.00 - 10h.30 Disequilibrium Modeling Chair " J. Waelbroeck (Universitÿ de Bruxelles) "A Disequilibrium Model of the French Economy P. Artus/S. Avouyi-Dovi/J.P. Laffargue "With Two Sectors and Endogenous Pricÿs CDC/CDC/CEPREMAP and Investment" "Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment in R. Coen / B.G. Hickman in a Disequilibrium Model" Northwestern U. & Stanford U. Discussants • P. Pauly (University of Toronto), U. Westphal (University of Hamburg) 10h.30 - 11h.00 Break 11 h.00- 12h.00 Disequilibrium Modeling (cont.) Chair • J. Waelbroeck (Universitÿ de Bruxelles) "Macroeconometric Disequilibrium Models W. Welfe Models for CPE's" University of Lodz "Simulated Moments Method and the Estimation G. Laroque / B. Salanie of Disequilibrium Models" INSEE General Discussion p.m. Excursion to ChAteau de Chantilly (invited persons only) 4o Thursday, August 31 9h.00 - 10h.30 Europe 1993 Chair : Y. Barroux (Banque de France) "Macroeconomic Implications of the EC A. Italianer Internal Market EC, Brussels 'q'he Completion of the Common Market in 1992 : A. Bakhoven Macro-Economic Consequences for the EC" CPB, The Hague "commodity Trade with Europe : Perspective J.P. Verbiest From Asia-Pacific" ADB 10h.30 - 11 h.00 Break 11 h.00 -12h.30 Europe 1993 Chair : J.Y. Cossÿ (Com.missaire G6n6ral au Plan) "The Economic and Monetary Union" A. Costa EC, Brussels Panel Discussion : A. Castiila, D. Currie, N. Garganas, J. Lybeck, P. Mazodier, P. Pauly, A. Stagni, J. Waelbroeck 12h.30 - 14h.00 Lunch Break 14h.00 - 15h.30 Topics in Applied Macroeconomics Chair : D. Currie (LBS) "Macroeconomic Impacts of Shorter Work-Hours C. Mariguchi / K. Ban in Japan" Osaka University "Balance of Payments Ajustment in Japan : J. Seo Recent Developments and Propsects" Bank of Japan "Real Budget Deficit Simulations" R. Eisner Northwestern University 15h.30 - 16h.00 Break 16h.00 - 17h.30 Topics in Applied Economics Chair : L. Lau'(Stanford) "Modeling the Monetary System in Greece" N. Garganas Bank of Greece "A Quarterly Econometric Model of Turkey : E. Uygur The Use of Survey Data in the Analysis of Inflation" Central Bank of Turkey "An Analysis of the Features of China's inflation" Wu Jiapei SEIC, Beijing Evening " Cocktail Party hosted by Banque de France (invited persons only) . Friday, September 1 9h.O0 -10h.30 Continuous-Time and Non-Parametric Models Chair • I. Visco (Banca d'ltalia) "Modeling in Continuous Time • the Case of the S. Avouyi-Dovi / M. Boutillier / R. Topoi Term Structure of Rea! Interest Rates in France" Ca!sse d-',s m6p6ts, ÿ ..... ÿ, de France & OFCE "Non-Parametric Methods in the Time-Series P. Pauly Analysis of Exchange Rates" University of Toronto "Semi-Parametric Procedures for Nonlinear R. Mariano Errors-in-Variables Models" University of Pennsylvania 10h.30 - 11h.00 Break 11 h.O0 - 1"2h.30 Modeling Issues Chair" J.P. Verbiest (ADB) "Frequency Analysis of Rainfall Data for India" P.D. Sharma Delhi School of Economics "Impact of Military Cuts on the Soviet Union L.R. Klein / M. Gronicki and East European Economies" University of Pennsylvania "Simulation Results of The UN International A. Onishi Development Policies on the World Economy in Soka University the 1990's" 12h.30 - 14h.00 Lunch Break 14h.00 - 15h.00 Modeling Issues Chair" N.N. - - OPEN -- 15h.00 - 16h.00 Business Meeting Research Plans , Thismeeting was mÿide possible thanks to the financial support of • INSEE, la Banque de France, le Commissariat Gÿneral du Plan, la Caisse des DepSts et Consignations, CNRS, ADRES, EDF and Saint-Gobain. 1990 New York, NY, USA jÿ una 7-9 March 1990 United Nations Headquarters New York Conference Roam 4 Prelintinary Agenda Wednesday, March 7 A.M: Chair: Lawrence R. Klein i0:00 Rafeeuddin Ahmed 10:15 - l:00 World Economic Outlook _ÿ-ro jecÿ Lÿm< General Discussion World Agricultural Markets W. Meyers Non-Agricultural Ccÿties F.G. Adams 1:30 - Lunch Delÿatÿ" D'mÿing Rÿm 2:30 P.M: Chair: Peter Pauly 2:30 - 5:30 Dual Currency Arrangements in the USSR A. Makarov Economic Consequences of German Unification u.ÿ North America : Overview L.R. Klein Western Europe : Introduction G. Dicks General Discussion 6.00 Reception hosted by Mr. Gdran Ohlin, Assistant Secretary-General Development Research and Policy Analysis DC2 Building (DC2-2315) - 2- %Thursdayj March 8 A.M: Chair: Bert G. Hickman I0:00 - mmÿmmt ÿ Easÿmÿ ÿ aÿd the USSR 12:30 LINK Outlook for Eastern Europe and the M. Gronicki Soviet Union : Summary Economic Adjustments in Hungary, Poland, w. welfe Czechoslovakia and the USSR A. Simon A. Kondÿ Eccrÿmic Restructuring in Eastern Europe: A View from Southern Europe Alternative Adjustments Towards Capitaiism A. SLmon Global Repercussions: LINK Scenario Results LINK Central General Discussion 12:30 - Lunch Break 2:30 P.M: Chair: Anatoly Smyshlyaev 2:30 - 5:30 Econÿc Reform in the Soviet Union S. Menshikov Revisited %ÿeUse of ModellingTec!ÿques in the V.B. Bezrukov Formulation of the 1991-95 Economic Plan Yu. V. Stepanov ofthe USSR Econcÿic Reform in the Soviet Union : H. Levine An American View Arms Reduction and the Macroeconomy: What F.G. Adams Can We Learn frcm the Global Perspectives Global Macroeconcÿics of Disarmament P. Pauly General Discussion Eyeing: Dinner Lancer's Restaurant [230 E. 44th Street between 2nd and 3rd Avenue] - 3 - Friday, iVmrch 9 A.M: Ckmir: _Ttsuo Kawamura I0:00 - Bsÿmÿl Omhlcak i:00 Japan K. Ban Asia S. Naseem J. P. Verbiesÿ M. Dowling Summary of OECD Discussion Latin America J. Vial P. Paima Africa S. Olofin I:00 - Lunch Break 2:30 P.M: Chair: Lawrence R. Klein 2:30 - 4:00 Progress Report on Installation of the K. Ruffing Model at United Nations Bessmÿh Plaÿs 1990 Manila, Philippines PROGRAM Monday, 5 November 8:30 A.M. Registration 9:00 A.M. Opening Addresses Kimimasa Tarumizu, President Asian Development Bank Lawrence 1L Klein Project Link 9:45 A.M. - 10:00 A.M. Coffee Break 10:00 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. Chairman Lawrence IL Klein University of Pennsylvania World Economic Outlook "Project LINK World Economic Kenneth G. Ruffing Outlook" United Nations/DIESA "The Current IMF Outlook" Peter Clark International Monetary Fund "The World Bank Outlook for Robert Lynn Developing Countries" The World Bank "The OECD Outlook" Hans Blommestein OECD Secretariat General Discussion Lunch 2:00 P.M. - 5:30 P.M. Chairman Peter Pauly University of Pennsylvania and University of Toronto World Economic Outlook (cont.) "The World Commodity Outlook" F. Gerard Adams University of Pennsylvania William Meyers Iowa State University Outlook for Developed Economies "North America: Forecast Summary" Lawrence 1L Klein University of Pennsylvania Gregory Jump University of Toronto 3:30 P.M. - 3:45 P.M. Coffee Break "Japan, Australia and New Zealand: Chikashi Moriguchi Forecast Summary" Osaka University "Western Europe: Forecast Summary" Uwe Westphal University of Hamburg General Discussion -2- Tuesday, 6 November 9:00 A.M. - 11:15 A.M. Chairman Bert Go Hickman Stanford University Outlook for Asia "Developing Asia: Recent Developments J. Malcolm Dowling and Outlook for 1991" Asian Development Bank Jean-Pierre Verbiest Asian Development Bank General Discussion "Liberalization Of the Financial Market: Oh-Seok Hyun A Case Study of Korea" The World Bank "Imports, Overseas Investment and their Youcai Liang Impacts on China's Economy" State Economic Information Centre People's Republic of China 11:15 A.M. - 11:30 A.M. Coffee Break 11:30 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. Roundtable on the Philippine Economy Chairman Roberto S. Marlano University of Pennsylvania "The Current Economic Outlook for Josef Yap the Philippines" Philippine Institute for Development Studies Panel discussion School of Economics, University of the Philippines Center for Research and Communication National Economic and Development Authority Lunch 2:30 P.M. - 5:30 P.M. Chairman Hakchung Choo Asian Development Bank Global Economic Issues "Internal and External Effects of Policy Shocks Bert G. Hickman in the Link Models of the Big Seven" Stanford University "Analysis of the Proposed Agricultural William Meyers Policy Reforms under the GAIT" Iowa State University "Service Trade and Asian Economies: A Case Ashfaque Khan Study of Pakistan" Pakistan Institute of Development Economics 4:00 P.M. - 4:15 P.M. Coffee Break "Growth and Environment: Simulations of Kimio Takanaka CO2 Cutbacks and Global Warming Soka University "Energy Prices and CO2 Emissions in the 1990s" Akihiro Amano Kobe University Wednesday, 7 November 9:00 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. (Concurrent sessions) Session A Chairman Kenneth G. Ruffing United Nations Outlook for Latin America and Africa "Forecast Summary for Latin America" Joaquin Vial CIEPLAN, Chile Eustaquio Reis INDEA/IPEA, Brazil Miklos Vidor Junta del Acuerdo de Cartagena, Peru Pedro Sainz United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) "Trade Reforms in Chile: Policy Lessons Joaquin Vial for the Nineties" CIEPLAN, Chile 10:30 A.M. - 10:45 A.M. Coffee Break "Economic Perspectives of Deforestation in Eustaquio Reis Amazonia" INDEA/IPEA "Forecast Summary for Africa" Jean IC Thisen U.N. Economic Commission for Africa Sam Olofin University of Ibadan, Nigeria Session B Chairman J. Malcolm Dowling Asian Development Bank Asian Economic Outlook: Country Reports I Newly Industrializing Economies o Hong Kong T.B. Lin Chinese University of Hong Kong o Republic of Korea Sangdal Shim Korea Development Institute 10:30 A.M. - 10:45 A.M. Coffee Break o Singapore Tan Khee Giap National University of Singapore o Taipei, China Joan C. Lo Academia Sinica -ÿ People's Republic of China Youcai Liang State Economic Information Centre China Afternoon Excursion to Corregidor Island -4- Thursday, 8 November 9:00 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. Chairman Itsuo Kawamura United Nations Current Developments in Europe "The Current Economic Situation in Eastern Valery Makarov Europe and the Soviet Union" Central Economic and Mathematical Institute, USSR Wladislaw Welfe University of Lodz, Poland Andras Simon University of Budapest, Hungary "Global Economic Implications of Economic Project Link Restructuring in Eastern Europe" General Discussion 10:30 A.M. - 10:45 A.M. Coffee Break "Modelling the Transfer of Innovative Energy Stefan Schleicher Technologies to Eastern Europe" University of Graz, Austria "The Single EC Market After 1992: Simulation Jean-Pierre Verbiest, Min Tang and Results of Its Impact on Asian Developing Ronald Q. Butiong Economies" Asian Development Bank Lunch 2:30 P.M. - 5:30 P.M. (concurrent sessions) Session A Chairman Chlkashl Moriguchi Osaka University Issues in International Trade "A Re-Examination of the Trade Linkage Peter Pauly Mechanism in Multicountry Models" University of Pennsylvania and University of Toronto "Integration of Models for Dynamic Asian Hans Blommestein Economies in the OECD Interlink Model" OECD Secretariat "Endogenous Trade Shares in a Model of the Shigeyuki Abe U.S., Japan and ASEAN" Kyoto Sangyo University Robert McCleery, Manuel Montes East-West Center Josef "Yap Philippine Institute of Development Studies 4:00 P.M. - 4:15 P.M. Coffee Break "Applications of the NIRA Disaggregated F. Gerard Adams US/Japan/Link Model" University of Pennsylvania Shuntaro Shishido International University of Japan "Industry Structure and Exchange Rate Byron Gangnes Pass-Through" University of Hawaii -5- Thursday, 8 November (continued) 2:30 P.M. - 5:30 P.M. (concurrent sessions) Session B Chairman T.B. Lin Chinese University of Hong Kong Asian Economic Outlook: Country Reports II South Asia o Bangladesh Salahuddin Ahmad Planning Commission o Myanmar Daw Thoung Tin Ministry of Planning and Finance o India Tarun Das Ministry of Finance 4:00 P.M. - 4:15 P.M. Coffee Break o Nepal P.1L Ligal Ministry of Finance o Pakistan S.N.H. Naqvi Pakistan Institute of Development Economics o Sri Lanka Lloyd Fernando Ministry of Policy, Planning and Implementation South Pacific o Papua New Guinea Meakoro Opa Department of Finance and Planning -6- Friday, 9 November 9:00 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. (concurrent sessions) Session A Chairman Uwe Westphal University of Hamburg Issues in Modeling I "Stochastic Simulations, Nonlinear Filtering Roberto Mariano of Preliminary Data, and Forecasting with a University of Pennsylvania Macroeconometric Model" Stefan Schleicher University of Graz "Robust Optimal Control of Stochastic Stephen Hall Nonlinear Economic Systems" London Business School 10:30 A.M. - 10:45 A.M. Coffee Break "High Frequency Modeling: Concepts and Lawrence 1L Klein Recent Results" University of Pennsylvania "Forecasting Current-Quarter GNP Using K. Sarma t High Frequency Data" IBM Corporation ' I : Session B Chairman V.R. Panchamukhi Research and Information System for the Non-Aligned and Other Developing Countries Asian Economic Outlook: Country Reports III Southeast Asia o Indonesia Iwan Jaya-Azis University of Indonesia o Lao PDR Phiane Philakone State Bank of Laos o Malaysia Muthi Semudram Malaysian Institute of Economic Research 10:30 A.M. - 10:45 A.M. Coffee Break o Thailand Damkirng Sawamiphakdi Thailand Development Research Institute o Viet Nam Nguyen Van Quy Central Institute of Economic Management Lunch 2:30 P.M. - 4:00 P.M. (concurrent sessions) Session A Chairman Iwan Jaya-Azis University of Indonesia Issues in Modeling II "A Model of the World Oil Market for Robert Kaufmann Project Link" Boston University "Export and Productivity Growth: South Youngil Lira Korea Evidence" UNIDO Contributed papers -7- Friday, 9 November (continued) 2:30 P.M. - 4:00 P.M. (concurrent sessions) Session B Chairman Lloyd Fernando Ministry of Policy, Planning and Implementation Sri Lanka Asian Economic Outlook: Country Reports IV Round table discussion on Policy Reforms, Inflation, Saving and Investment in Developing Asia 4:00 P.M. - 4:15 P.M. Coffee Break 4:15 P.M. - 4:30 P.M. Closing Remarks William R. Thomson, Vice President Asian Development Bank Lawrence R. Klein University of Pennsylvania 1991 New York, NY, USA 02/28/91 17:34 "ÿ978 5519 UofT INST AN 002 Project LIÿ'ÿ $prlnq Meeting March 6 - 8, 1991 United Nations Headquarters New York Conference Room 2 Wednesday, March 6 aomo : Chair t Lavrenoe R. Klein i0:00 Welcome Address R. Ahmed 10:15 Global Outlook -1:00 World Economic Outlook - Project LINK Outlook Summaries from International Agencies : - IMP K. Warwick - World Bank R. Lynn - Commission of the EC A. Dramais General Discussion I:00- Lunoh in Delegates' Dining Room 3:00 p .m. : chaiz : Peter Pauly 3:00 Regional Outlook -4:00 North America L. Kimbell P. Dungan 4:00 The Current State of World p. Ver!eger -4:30 Oil Markets 4:30 Panel Discussion on World oil Markeÿs -5:20 Participants : c. Consÿantinou R. Kaufmann P. Palma P. Verleger 5:ÿ0 Agricultural Commodity Markets P. West.hoff -6:00 ReoeDtion hosted bT DZESA , UN-Dÿ2 2ÿd floor El )2/28/91 17:34 "ÿ978 5519 UofT INST AN Thuredav • March ? aoÿ, : Chaiz x Bert G. Hickman i0:00 Regional Outlook (oont.) -!:00 Japan : Overvimw C. Moriguchi Developed Asia : Country Reports Western Europe : Introduction G. Dicks Western Europe : Country Reports General Discussion 1:00 Lunch Break -3:00 .m. : Chair : Chikashi Moriguch£ 3:00- Regional Outlook (cont.) 6:00 Latin America : overview P. Sainz Latin America : Country Reports General Discussion Asia : Overview M Dowling S. Naseem Asia : country Reports General Discussion Zvening : Dinner at Lanceÿs r 230 East 44th Street ( between 2nd and 3rd Ave. ) f 02/28/91 17:35 ÿ978 5519 UofT INST AN I ! _. Friday, Marah @ a.m. : Chai= : Itsuo Kawÿura i0:00- Regional Outlook (€ont.) !:00 Eastern Europe : Summary J.M. Collette Eastern Europe : Country Reports General Discussion Economic Perspectives for DIESA the Middle East Y. Sheinin Africa : Summary DIESA S. Olofin General Discussion i:00 Lunch Break -2:30 p.m. : ChaiE : Lawrence R. Klein 2:30- LZNK Development Issues 4:00 Business Meetlnq Research Plans 1991 Moscow, Russian Fed. -\ Project KINK Fall Meeting Septemtÿ:.r ÿ'ÿ• ÿ3 - 27 , 1991 Academy of 'ÿ-oc4ences " of the USSR , Moscow , USSR Agenda Monday. Seutember 2ÿ 9:00 OPerdrÿSÿatements AcadeÿtiÿDiartValery Makarov " , Uo:ÿR.... Academy of ,Sciences Profeeÿor Sÿt.teÿt Obmdxteky , Deputy Foreiÿ?n Mirdtster of the USSR Profeeÿor Lawrence R. Fÿein, Project LINK 9:30-12:30 World Economie Outlook Chair : Lawrence R. Klein - Project LINK Summary K.G. Ruffhÿg - Views £rom Other" Orgaÿizations J. Green C. E. Petersen 11:00-11:30 Coffee Break 11:30-1:00 World Economic Outlook (cont.) - I,ÿ ...... iÿi,,ÿ, of the Inter'natdonal Outlook - World Commodity Markets F.G. Adams W. Meyers R. Kaufmann I:00- ÿo,... 00 Lunch 2:(I(I- rÿo-o0 ,o,- Regional Outlook I Chair : Peter Pauly ..... -3:45 - North Am..iÿ..a R. Wescotÿ L.R. Kleÿa - Japan , Australia and N.Zealand C, Moriguclÿ P. Brahl S. Newman 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-6:00 - Western Eui'oi}e /, Var'ious national representatives 6:30 .... ÿer Evenÿig : Cocktail Reception Tuesdaÿr . Seotember 24 Economic Problems of the USSR and Eas%ern Europe Chair : Academi(ian V. Makarov 9:00-9:40 Inflation: Soviet Case. (N.Y.Petrak0vJ 9:40-10:15 On the Forecast of the USSR Natdona! lÿcMc-ÿrinsÿ Iÿ( Economic Development hÿ1991-1992 10:15-10:35 Problems of Economic Reform ÿ the USSR K.K. Valtukh /- 10:35-I/:00 The Economic Outlook for the USSR ÿ A.R. Belousov 1991 : Recent SituatAon and Perspectives 11:00-11:20 Coffee Break 11:20-12:00 Discussion 12:(10-12:30 Issues of Transitdon to a Market Economy H. Levhÿe 12:30-1:00 On Maca'oeconomic Problems of Economies A. Simon Transition 1:00-2:00 Lunch / 2:00-2:40 On the State and Perspective of the Ukraine /V.M" . Geets \ Economy 2:40-3:10 A Catastropllic Cqÿange of Economic A.D. Smirnov Reforms Policy E.B. Ershov 3:10-3:45 Large Econometric Models for the Period of W. Welfe Transition 3:45-4"00 Coffee Break 4:00-4:30 Modelhÿg of Food and Agÿ-icultural Sectors for W. Meyers Economies Jÿ Transition 4:30-5:00 Economic Relations Between the USSR and the O.S. Hyun v/' Republic of Korea 5:00-6:00 The Econo.ÿ[c Outlook for Eastern Europe W. Welfe A. Simon 6:30 I)ÿer Wednesday, . September 28 aÿmÿ Excursion to the Kreml%n z- 0 0 - ÿ- 0 0 Lÿ_t-ich 2:00-6:00 Regiomal Outlook (cont.) Chair : Kenmeth G. Ruffing 2:00-3:15 - Latin America /0 P. Palma J. Vial fo Reis ÿ 3:15- 3:45 - Africa !< J. Thisen and other pal" ticipall ts (0 3:45-4:00 Coffee Break (D 4:00-6:00 - Asia M, Dowlhÿg J.P. Verbiest and other participants 6: 3 0 Dinner Evenh,g Folkloric Dances and Songs ci /- Thursday • September 26 9:00-1:00 ITLterYLÿ.Io[LTLL Economic Policy Issues C -hair : ILG. [lidÿman 9:00-9"-30 ,ÿicarÿdxÿ the Future : A Lorÿ;-Term H. Tÿ,m ÿr Scenario Study of the World Economy 9:30-10:00 Fozt-W-ÿ/t Economic Growth in the Groÿ:¢f; of Lÿ Lau Five Countries /" I0:00-I0=30 Trade Com[ÿosi/don and Development : Some P. Pauly Cross- Country Evidence 10:30-11:00 Tÿe Degree of Convergence Wit}#aÿ the EMS S. HaLl 11:00-11:o0r ÿf Coffee Break ll.30-.a-00 Demand and Suppl}ÿ,.ÿapÿ :' " as Leadhÿg Indicators S. Ito of ÿiflation Im.(,0-1-ÿ-e0 Integrat&on of Poland With the EC J. Gajda K. Sen 12:30-1:00 India's Rÿcÿnt Economic ÿ,rlsls \/' 1: 0 0 - 2: 0 0 Lunch pÿmm Excursion to Zagor-ÿk Monastery (dinner after return from trip) Friday , September 27 9:00-1:00 temtion£ Modeling Issues I Ch-ÿdr : Chÿkashi Moriguehi 9:00-9:30 Strategies for Modelliÿ Develo;,irÿ C. Petersen Countries 9:30-10:00 A Model of East Asian Trade A. Simon 10:00-10:30 A Maca-oeconometric Model for Indonesia : Some I. Azis Domestdc and External Sim[tlations 10:30-11:00 An Econometric Model for Malaysia M. Semudram 11:00-11:30 Coffee Break o 11:30-12:00 A F.01 ," "','ÿ eÿ.aÿtÿg " " ÿ' Model of the Czechoslovak J. Haluska // Economy 12:00-12:30 A Macroecononÿc Model for Ttmisia M. Ben Sassi :/ 12:30-1:00 Stodmstlc Simulatdon of Eeononÿetric Models P.F. Hong ÿ/" 1:00-...:0[ Lunch 2:00_°,O:4U rÿ,, h, ternational Modeling Issues II Chair : T.B. Lin A Maeroeconomic Foreeast.ÿg Model of the S,K. Chÿrabarti ÿ/J Kenyan Economy 2:30- 3:00 latA,:,nal £ .,li,ÿ..ÿ Modeÿg ÿ ZJÿbab .we (M. I 3:00- 3:45 rroaÿct LINK Mode]JdJg Developments E.G. Ruffÿg P. Pauly 3:45-4:00 Coffee Break 4:00-5:00 (:loaÿg Statements ÿd Business Meeting 6: 30 Dinner Evetÿhÿ Farewell Party 1992 New York, NY, USA 1992 Ankara, Turkey Project LINK Fall Meeting September 14 - 18 , 1992 State Institute of Statistics Ankara , Turkey Agenda Monday, September 14 Chair : Lawrence R. Klein 10:00- Opening Session 11:00 Opening Statement by the Prime Minister 11:00- Break 11:15 11:15- World Economic Outlook 12:45 Project LINK World Outlook K.G. Ruffing U.N. , New York General Discussion 1:00- Lunch Break 2:00 Chair : Peter Pauly 2:15- World Economic Outlook (cont.) 3:45 A Perspective from the IMF M.S. Kumar IMF , Washington / / World Agricultural Markets W. Meyers Iowa State University World Oil Market R. Kaufmann Boston University 3 : 45- Break 4:00 4:00- Regional Outlook 5:30 Summary : United States of America L.R. Klein Univ. of Pennsylvania Summary : Japan C. Moriguchi / K. Ban Osaka University General Discussion LINK National Representatives 19:00- Reception : Ankara Palas State Guest House 21:00 Tuesday , September 15 Chair : Kenneth G. Ruffing 9:30- Regional Outlook (cont.) II:00 Latin America : Summary P. Sainz ECLAC , Santiago General Discussion LINK National Representatives Africa : Summary J.K. Thisen ECA , Addis Abeba General Discussion LINK National Representatives II:00- Break 11:15 11:15- Regional Outlook (cont.) 12:45 Asia : Summary J.P. Verbiest ADB , Manila General Discussion LINK National Representatives 1:00- Lunch Break 2:00 Chair : Bert G. Hickman 2:15- Regional Outlook (cont.) 3:45 Western Europe LINK National Representatives Central and Eastern Europe , LINK National CIS and Baltic States Representatives 3:45- Break 4:00 4:00- Problems of European Integration 5:30 "The Implications of a Single European N. Garganas j Currency and Monetary Policy : Prospects and Bank of Greece Policy Issues" "Is the Bundesbank Different from Other S. Hall vi Central Banks : A Study Based on P*" London Business School "Switzerland and European Integration : J.P. Theler . ÿt/hhe Problem of Migration" Univ. de Lausanne 3 Wednesday , September 16 Full - Day Excursion Thursday ÿ September 17 Chair : Orhan Giivenen 9:30- International Economic Issues 11:00 W. Meyers I//"Implications of a GATT Agreement Following }j v the Dunkel Text" Iowa State University "An Empirical Study of Turkish Export and G. Erlat / H. Erlat Import Performance" Middle East Technical Univ. "Growth, Emigration, and Foreign Aid : E. Uygur the Case of Turkey" Central Bank of \ Turkey S' II:00- Break 11:15 11:15- Environment, Trade and Development 12:45 "International Economic Aspects of Carbon R. Kaufmann ,/ Taxation" Boston University //"Macroeconomic Impacts of CO2 Reduction H. Gluck / /ÿ Strategies" S. Schleicher Austrian Nat. Bankÿ Univ. of Graz "The Costs and Benefits of CO2 Reduction T. O'Dwyer u// Strategies : the Case of a High Energy NIEIR , Melbourne Producer and Exporter" 1:00- Lunch Break 2:00 Chair : Chikashi Moriguchi 2:15- Environment, Trade and Development (cont.) 3:45 "Long-Term Impacts of Carbon Taxes on Global S. Shishido Int. Univ. of Japan vl Environment and Growth" "South-North Investment : Investment by S. Page Developing Countries in the EC" ODI , London "Industrial Policy in Korea" O.S. Hyun Planning Board , Seoul 3:45- Break 4:00 4:00- Economic Cooperation in Asia 5:30 "Regionalism and Globalism : Perspectives for Toh Mun Heng / ASEAN and Asia" L. Low Nat. Univ. of Singapore "Complementarities and Competitiveness in M. Semudram / Regional ASEAN Trade" MIER, Kuala Lumpur "Economic Cooperation in Asia : NIEs and M. Toida ASEAN" IDE , Tokyo 18:00- Visit to the Museum of Anatolian Civilizations 18:45 19:30 Dinner at Zenger Pasha Restaurant 5 Friday , September 18 Chair : Peter Pauly 9:30- Black Sea Economic Cooperation 10:00 "Black Sea Economic Cooperation : an Overview" ¢. Kurdoÿlu DEIK , Istanbul "Some Comments and Proposals on the Statistical O. Giivenen , Infrastructure of Black Sea Cooperation" SIS , Ankara 10:00- Issues in Modeling : Exchange Rates and Prices 11:00 "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity and Interest A.S. Jore / Parity on Norwegian Data" Central Stat. Office Oslo B. Gangnes Lÿ v "Strategic Export Pricing : Exploring New Price Equations for the LINK Model" Univ. of Hawaii 11:00- Break 11:15 11:15- Issues in Modeling : Modelers' Workshop 12:45 "The Treatment of Expectations in Large- S. Hall Scale Models" London Business School General Discussion 1:00- Lunch Break 2:00 Chair : Lawrence R, Klein 2:15- Issues in Modeling : National Models 3:45 / ,ÿ! vÿiÿ "A Monthly Econometric Model for Turkey" S. C)zmucur Boÿazi¢i University J.K. Thisen ii"A Short-Term SAM-Based Forecasting Model for a Developing Oil-Exporting Country" ECA , Addis Abeba J. Haluska/M. Olexa/ /-"An Experimental Annual Model of the CSFR Economy with Disaggregated Trade" I. Sujan INFOSTAT, Bratislava 3:45- Break 4:00 4:00- Open 5:3O LINK Research Plans. Business Meeting Closing , / Q/ .... / 1993 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Spring Meeting March 10-13, 1993 United Nations Headquarters, New York Wednesday a.m.: Conference Room 3 All other sessions: Trusteeship Council Chamber Agenda Wednesday, 10 March 1993 a.m.: Chair: Lawrence R. Klein 10:00 Opening Address J.C. Milleron, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, United Nations 10:15 - Global Outlook 1:00 Project LINK Kenneth G. Ruffmg (United Nations) World Bank Uri Dadush (The World Bank) IMF S.H. Samiei (IMF) Commission of the EC A. Brandsma (EC) 1:00 - LUNCH: Delegates Dining Room (4th Floor) 2:30 p.m.: Chair: Peter Pauly 2:30 - International Economic Policy Coordination 4:00 "Perspectives for G-7 Economic Coordination" Wendy Dobson (University of Toronto) Panel Discussion: L.R. Klein, K. Ruffing, C. Moriguchi, U. Westphal, J.P. Coils S.G. Hall, A. Stagni, P. Dungan 4:00 - Perspectives for the International Trading System 5:00 General Discussion 5:00 - International Commodity Markets 5:30 General Discussion William Meyers (Univeristy of Iowa) Robert Kaufmann (Boston University) 6:00 EVENING RECEPTION: DC2-2227, 2 UN Plaza, 44th Street Thursday, 11 March 1993 a°m° Chair: Bert G. Hickman 10:00 - Regional Economic Outlook 12:00 North America L.R. Klein, (University of Pennsylvania) R. F. Wescott (WEFA) D. Peter Dungan (University of Toronto) "Some Key Issues in the Analysis of the Peter Clark Effects of U.S. Fiscal Consolidation" Steve Symansky IMF "National and International Aspects of a Peter Pauly (University of Toronto) U.S. Energy Tax" Robert Kaufmann (Boston University) 12:00 - Regional Outlook (cont'd) Jaoan C. Moriguchi (Osaka University) General Discussion (other non-European OECD) LINK National Representatives 1:00 - LUNCH BREAK 2:30 p.m.: Chair: Duncan Ironmonger 2:30 - Regional Outlook (cont'd) 5:30 Western Europe Outlook Summary Peter Pauly (University of Toronto) General Discussion LINK National Representatives Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union Outlook Summary Gyorgy Sandor (United Nations) Istvan Szekely (United Nations "On a Policy for the Russian Economy" V. Makarov (CEMI) General Discussion LINK National Representatives 6:00 EVENING DINNER: Nusantara Restaurant, 219 E. 44th St., New York, N.Y. 10017 Cash Bar from 6:00, dinner at 7:00. Friday, 12 March 1993 a.m.: Chair: Kenneth G. Ruffing 10:00 - Regional Outlook (cont'd) 1:00 South and East Asia Outlook Summary J.M. Dowling (Asian Development Bank) General Discussion LINK National Representatives Latin America Outlook Summary P. Sainz (ECLAC) General Discussion LINK National Representatives 1:00 - LUNCH BREAK 2:30 p.m.." Chair: Kenneth G. Ruffing 2:30 - Regional Outlook (cont'd) 5:30 Africa Outlook Summary Henk-Jan Brinkman (United Nations) Jean Thisen (ECA) General Discussion LINK National Representatives Middle East Outlook Summary Edouard Nsimba (United Nations) General Discussion LINK National Representatives Saturday, 13 March 1993 LINK Modellers' Workshop a°m° Chair: Bert Hickman 10:00 International Linkage Mechanisms 1:00 Monetary Sectors and International Monetary Peter Pauly Linkages Expectations Foreign Direct Investment 1:00 - LUNCH BREAK 2:00 2:00 - International Linkage Mechanisms (cont'd) 3:30 Trade and Exchange Rate (updates) Peter Pauly System Developments: Overview Kenneth G. Ruffing Pingfan Hong Peter Pauly Model Presentations Kenya V. Chakrabarti 3:30 - National Modellers' Forum and Business Meeting 4:00 CLOSE OF MEETING 1993 Beijing, China Project LINK Fall Meeting September ÿ13-!7, 1993 Hotel Beijing New Century Beijing, the People's Republic of China hosted by The State Planning Commission/ÿe State IrKonmtion Center of the People's Republic of China Preliminary ÿ-enda },!onday, September 13 a.m. World Economic Outlook p.m. Regional Outlook Tuesday, September 14 a.m. China Day, pt. I p.m. China Day, pt. II Wednesday, September 15 Full-day Excursion to the Great Wall and !4ing Tombs Thursday, SePtember 16 a.m. International Economic Policy Issues, 7apan and the Global Economy p.m. International Economic Policy Issues, Disequilibria in Industrial Countries Friday, September 17 a.m. Issues in Modeling p.m. International Economic Policy Issues: Trade and Financial ÿkets in Asia-Pacific Business Meeting Monday, September 13 World Economic Outlook Chair: Lawrence R. Klein 8.. 30-9, O0 : €/0 Opening Address 9, 00-10, O0 Project LINK World Outlook Kenneth G. Ruffing 10, 00-10,15 Break 10,15-10, 45 A Perspective from the World Bank Uri Dadush The Current IMF Outlook Robert Ford Agricultural Commodities Robert Young The World Oil Market Robert Kaufmann 12, 00-1:30 Lunch Regional Outlook Chair, 1.. 30-3, O0 North America, Summary Lawrence R. Klein Latin America. Summary Pedro Sainz General Discussion 3, 00-3,15 Break Asia, Summary J. Malcolm Dowling Africa, Summary Jean K. Thisen General Disaussion Evening, Buffet Reception Tuesday, September 14 China Day, Part I Chair: Wang Tong 8: 30-I0:O0 Chinese Economic Situation ChunzAÿeng Wang Chinese Financial Reform Yuan Chen Economic Reform and Development in China Shou Zhang I0: 00-I0,15 Break I0:15-II: 45 Chinese Foreign Trade Zhignang Tong Taking A Market-Oriented Direction And Pushing Shangquan Gao Forward In A Gradual Way--A Basic Experience of China's Economic Reform General Discussion 12: 00-I: 30 Lunch China Day: Part II Chair: Gao Xinmin I: 30-3:O0 Description of Chinese Currency Circulation Tong Wang Macro-control of China's Economy Jiapei Wu Economic Outlook for China Youcai Liang 3: 00-3:15 Break 3:15-4:45 Chinese Energy Models Zongxin Wu Meta-Synthesis Method and its Application to the jingyuan Yu Chinese Economy On the Measurement of Technological Change Feng Zhou Evening: Conference Banquet Friday, September 17 Issues in ÿIodelling" Chair: Pedro Palma 8, 30-10, O0 =Principles of Dynamic Modelling" C/ÿ'') Keith Cuthiÿ'tson °/ General Discussion I0, 00-I0,15 Break 10:15-11: "Alternative Estimation Strategies in a Wage-Price Model Massimo Tivegna of the Italian Economy" "Fossil Fuel Demand for Nine OECD Countries" Stephen Hal 1 "A New Quarterly Model of the Polish Economy" Wladyslaw Welfe 12, 00-1,, 30 Lunch International Economic Policy Issues, Trade and Financial Markets in Asia-Pacific Chair, Kenneth G. Ruffing I.. 30-3, O0 "Chinese Economic Reforms and Development" E.C. Hwa/ Lawrence Lau ",The Effects of China'sTrade and Growth 6fi the ...... gÿanueLMontes Asia-PaCific ÿam -tiles ...... / / i / 3, (X)-3,15 Break i 3.15-4,15 =An Intercountry Model of the Asian Region, the Effect of Hiren Sarkar \ Consumption Shocks in Selected Countries on GDP and \ Intraregional Trade" Business ÿleeting 1994 New York, NY, USA 1994 Salamanca, Spain 1995 New York, NY, USA 1995 Pretoria, South Africa Project LINK Fall Meeting LIST OF SPONSORS ABSA Bank Ltd. September 25 - 29, 1995 University of Pretoria I Asian Securities Industries Association, New York Pretoria, South Africa Bank of Japan, Tokyo Hosted by Booz, Allen & Hamilton, New York Department of Economics British High Commission University of Pretoria Canadian International Development Agency, Ottawa Programme Committee De Witt, Morgan & Co. Co-Chairs: The Chairman's Fund Educational Trust {Anglo-American Corporation, De Beers} Peter Paulÿ University of Toronto Distillers Co-op Ltd. Geert de Wet, University of Pretoria Genbel Investments Ltd. Members: Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Ltd. Adolfo Castilla, Universidad Alfonso X el Sabio, Madrid; Stephen G Hall, Iscor Ltd. London Business School; Bert G Hickman, Stanford University; Duncan Ironmonger, University of Melbourne; Lawrence R Klein, University of KWV Pennsylvania; Chikashi Moriguchi, Osaka University; Pedro Palma, Metroeconomica, Caracas; Anatoly Smyshlyaev, United Nations, New Panasonic York; Uwe Westphal, University of Hamburg. Pretoria Afrikaans Chamber of Business Local Organising Committee: South African Breweries Ltd. Geert de Wet (Chair), Sansia Brink, Charlotte du Toit, Chris Harmse, South African Reserve Bank Andrÿ Jordaan, Reneÿ Koekemoer, Sandra Mollentze, Lydia Mouton, Niek Schoeman, Dirk Scholtz, Fritz Steyn, Jaco van der Walt, Jan van Standard Bank of South Africa Ltd. Rensburg; Secretarial: Louise Cromhout, Petro Cronjÿ -- University of Pretoria. ABSA Bank Ltd. University of Pretoria {Vice-chancellor and Principal; Top Management; Dean, Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences; Meeting Preparation Department of Economics; BEPA; STATOMET} Erin Foster, University of Toronto PLJ Van Rensburg & Partners Stockbrokers AGENDA OUTLINE Wednesday, September 27 Sunday; September 24 Full-day Excursion Pilanesberg National Park 09:00-23:00 (Depart at 09:00 from Hotels) Evening Welcome Reception: Vice-chancellor and 18:00-20:00 Principal, University of Pretoria - Evening Bush Braai (Conference Centre, University of Pretoria) (Pilanesberg National Park) ? Monday, September 25 Thursday, September 28 Session I World Economic Outlook Session I African Development Issues Session II World Economic Outlook (cont.) and Regional Outlook: Europe Session II African Development: South and Southern Africa Session III Regional Outlook: Transition Economies and Latin America Session III Special Session at the South African Reserve Bank Session IV European Monetary Issues Evening Reception at the South African Reserve Bank Evening Dinner 18:00-19:30 (Conference Centre, University of Pretoria) Friday, September 29 Evening Modelling Seminar 19:00-22:00 Session I Topics in Modelling: Supply Side I Tuesday, September 26 Session II Topics in Modelling: Supply Side II Session I Regional Issues: North America and Japan Session III Issues in International Economics: Trade Session II Regional Issues: Asia Session IV Issues in International Economics: China Session III International Capital Markets Business Meeting Session IV Capital Markets, Monetary Policy and Evening Barbecue ("Skaapbraai') North-South Issues 19:00 (Sportsgrounds, University of Pretoria) Evening Reception at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange NOTE: Programme for accompanying persons appears separately. (Depart at 18:30 from UP Conference Centre) . ÿ T¸ ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ . ÿt :i¸ : AGENDA "Transition Economies: Summary" Daniel Bachmann, ECE, Geneva Monda3ÿ September 25 "Latin America: Summary" Pedro Sainz, ECLAC, Santiago 09:00-09:15 Welcome General Discussion 09:15-11:00 World Economic Outlook 16:00-16:30 Tea / Coffee Chair: Peter Pauly, University of Toronto 16:30-18:00 European Monetary Issues "Project LINK World Outlook" Chair: Nicholas Garganas, Bank of Greece Anatoty SmyshIyaev, United Nations, New York "Why Have Recent Devaluations Not Resulted in "Global Economic Prospects and the High Inflation: Some Evidence From Four Developing Countries" European Countries" Milan Brahmbhatt, The World Bank, Washington D.C. Paola Caselli, Bank of Italy General Discussion "Shocking the European Economies: Is There Evidence for Convergence?" 11:00-11:30 Tea / Coffee Heinz Gliick and Stefan Schleicher, Austrian National Bank and University of Graz 11:30-13:00 World Economic Outlook (cont.) and Regional Outlook: Europe "Realignment Expectations Within the ERM" Chair: Bert G Hickman, Stanford University Clive Altshuler, United Nations, New York "Perspectives for Agricultural Commodities" Willy Meyers, Iowa State University Modelling Seminar : 19:00 - 22:00 Chair: Geert De Wet, University of Pretoria "The World Oil Market" Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Principles of Econometric Modelling Stephen G Hail "Western Europe: Summary" Specification Diagnostics Peter Pauly Andrd Dramais, Commission of the EU, Brussels Econometric Models: Past, 13:00-14:30 Lunch at University of Pretoria Present and Future Lawrence R Klein Bert G Hickman 14:30-16:00 Regional Outlook: Transition Economies and Latin America Discussion Chair: Chikashi Moriguchi, Osaka University ' ' ' filial Tuesday, September 26 "Is There a Next Mexico in East-Asia?" Lawrence J Lau, Stanford University 09:00-11:00 Regional Outlook: North America and Japan Chair: Pedro Palma, Metroeconomica, Caracas "Global Investment-Saving Balances and Real Interest Rates Reconsidered" "North America: Summary" Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Lawrence R Klein, University of Pennsylvania 16:00-16:30 Tea [ Coffee "Japan: Summary" Chikashi Moriguchi, Osaka University 16:30-18:00 Capital Markets, Monetary Policies and North-South Issues "Modelling Japanese Import Promotion" Chair: Duncan Ironmonger, University of Melbourne Byron Gangnes and F Gerard Adams, University of Hawaii and University of Pennsylvania "Impacts of Financial Liberalisation in Selected Economies of the Asia-Pacific Region" "Integration of Asia-Pacific Economies -- With a Janet Farooq, ESCAP, Bangkok Special Reference to Growing Tourism" Chikashi Moriguchi, Osaka University -"Making the Monetary Conditions Index Operational" 11:00-11:30 Tea / Coffee Kari Eika and Ragnar Nymoen, Central Bank of Norway 11:30-13:00 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: Asia Chair: Lawrence R Klein, University of Pennsylvania "Globalisation and the Third World" Adolfo Castilla, Universidad Alfonso X el Sabio, "Asia: Summary" Madrid J, Malcolm Dowling, Asian Development Bank 18:30 Departure for Johannesburg Stock Exchange General Discussion 20:00-22:00 Reception at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange "Long-Term Capital Flows in Asia" Wendy Dobson, University of Toronto 13:00-14:30 Lunch at University of Pretoria Thursday, September 28 14:30-16:00 International Capital Markets THE LBS MODELLER: SOFTWARE DEMONSTRATION Chair: Mark Courtney and Jim Buys, S G Hall and J Nixon British High Commission and Anglo American Thursdaÿ September 28:09:00-10:30 (Conference Centre, SRC Hall) "Official Finance for Development: RIP?" Frida3ÿ September 29: 16:30-18:00 (Conference Centre, SRC Hall) Barry Herman, United Nations, New York 09:00-10:30 African Development Issues Welcome Chair: Adam Jacobs, ABSA Bank "South Africa and Africa: Prognosis for the "Africa: Adjustment Without Development" Future - A Business View" Henk-Jan Brinkman, United Nations, New York David Brink, Chairman, ABSA Bank "Elements of a Model Convention for Sub- "The Medium-Term Outlook for Africa in the Regional Common Markets in Africa" World Economy" Jean K Thisen, ECA, Addis Ababa Lawrence R Klein, University of Pennsylvania "South Africa's Trade Policy and Economic "Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa" Development" Sam Olofin, University of lbadan Gerrit BreyI and Alan Hirsch, Department of Trade and Industry, Pretoria 10:30-11:00 Tea / Coffee "Monetary Policy in South Africa" 11:00-12:30 African Development: South and Southern Chris Stals, Governor, South African Reserve Bank Africa Chair: Flip Kotze and Edwin Basson, Industrial 17:00-19:00 Reception at the South African Reserve Bank Development Corporation and ISCOR "The South African Government's Approach to Frida3ÿ September 29 Economic Development in South and Southern Africa" 09:00-11:00 LINK Modelling Session: Supply Side I Elias Links, Department of Finance, Pretoria Chair: Jean-Christian Lambelet, University of Lausanne "Regional Economic Development in Southern Africa" Invited Lecture Bax Nomvete, Africa Institute for Policy Analysis "Supply Side Modelling: An Overview" S G Hall and J Nixon, London Business School 12:30-13:30 Lunch at University of Pretoria Invited Lecture 13:30 Departure for South African Reserve Bank "Modelling the Supply Side: What Are the Lessons from Recent Research in Comparative Growth" 14:00-17:00 Special Session at South African Reserve Bank John Helliwell, Harvard University and University of Chair: Kerneels Swanepoel, South African Reserve British Columbia Bank 11:00-11:30 Tea / Coffee + ,< ,/ ,ÿ ÿ; ',LÿC ÿ< - ÿ- ,ÿ iL Dÿ, % ,ÿ< " 2-,ÿ,,i :ÿ 11:30-13:00 LINK Modelling Session: Supply Side II "A Macroeconomic Study of China's Economy" Chair: David Mayes, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Pingfan Hong, United Nations, New York "A Stochastic Model of Potential Output" "Analyses and Forecasts on China's Introducing Bert G Hickman and Robert Coen, Stanford University Foreign Capital" and Northwestern University Li Jingwen, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing "Factor Demand Modelling" Thomas Thomsen, Danmarks Statistik, Copenhagen "Chinese Monetary Reform" Wang Tong, State Commission for Restructuring "Is Public Social Sector Investment Productive? Economics, Beijing Some Supply Side Evidence from Pakistan" Hafiz Pasha, Aisha Ghaus and M AynuI Hasan, 18:00-19:00 Business Meeting SPDC, Karachi Chair: Peter Pauly 13:00-14:30 Lunch at University of Pretoria 19:00 "Skaapbraai" (Sportsgrounds, University of Pretoria) 14:30-16:00 Topics in International Economics: Trade Chair: Carlo D'Adda, University of Bologna "Regional Groups of Developing Countries: A Framework for Analysing Their Formation and Their Effects" Sheila Page, Overseas Development Institute, London "Causal Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence From Cross Section and Time Series Data" Siddig Salih, UNU WIDER, Helsinki "Competitiveness and Complementarity Between SAARC and ASEAN" Salahuddin Ahmad, International Development Planning Institute, Dhaka 16:00-16:30 Tea / Coffee 16:30-18:00 Topics in International Economics: China Chair: Wladystaw Welfe, University of Lodz 1996 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Spring Meeting 25-28 March 1996 United Nations, New York COUNTRY REPORTS Argentina Australia* Austria* Bangladesh Belgium* Botswana Brazil* Bulgaria Canada Chile China* Colombia* Costa Rica Croatia* Czech Republic* Denmark France* Germany* Greece Hong Kong Hungary* India Indonesia* Ireland* Israel* Italy* Japan* Kenya Korea* Malaysia* Mexico* Nepal Netherlands* New Zealand Nigeria* Norway* Pakistan* Philippines Poland* Romania Russia & CIS countries* Singapore* Slovakia* Slovenia* South Africa* Spain* Sweden* Switzerland* Taiwan* Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom* United States* Venezuela* Vietnam* included in the package. 1996 Lausanne, Switzerland 96 Agenda Outline Welcome Reception - Institut 'Crda' Session l World Economic Outlook Session III World Economic Outlook (cont.) Session Ill Regional Outlook - Western Europe and Japan Session IV European Policy Issues Reception University of Lausanne Tuesday Session I Regional Outlook and Policiy Issues : North America Session I| Regional Outlook and Policiy Issues : Asia Session III International Economic Issues Session IV Economic Development Issues Reception Canton de Vaud and City of Lausanne Wednesday Session I Trade and Regional Arrangements Panel Discussion Excursion to Gruyÿres (departure from University) Dinner at Hoste/!erie St Georges in Gruyÿres Thursday Session I Regional Outlook and Policy Issues • Africa and Middle East Session H High Frequency Analysis of International Financial Markets Session HI The Sources of Growth Session IV Regional Outlook and Policy Issues - Latin America and Transition Economies Friday Session I Topics in Modelling : Factor Demand Session II Topics in Modelling (cont.) Invited Lecture Session HI Topics in Modelling (cont.) Business Meeting LiH 96 Agenda Sunday, September 29 18:30 - 20:00 Welcome Reception : Institut 'Crda' Hotel Agora, Avenue du Rand-Point 9, Lausanne Monday, September 30 9:00 - 9:30 Welcome D01ia Nilles, acting Director, Institut 'Cr0a', UNIL Olivier Blanc, Dean, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, UNIL Pascal Bridel, Vice-Rector, University of Lausanne (UNIL) 9:30- 10:45 World Economic Outlook Chair : Laÿrence R. Klein, UniversiO/ of Pennsylvania Project LINK World Outlook Anatoly Smyshlyaev, United Nations, New York Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries T.G. Srinivasan, The World Bank, Washington The IMY International Economic Outlook International Monetaw Fund, Washington 10:45 - 11:15 [Break 11:15 - 12:30 World Economic Outlook {cont.) Chair : Lawrence Ro Klein, Universitv of Pennsylvania The N/ESR Outlook Ray Barrell, National Institute for Economic Research, London International CommodiO/ Markets F. Gerard Adams, University of Pennsylvania, Robert Kaufmann, Boston University and Willy Meyers, Iowa State University General Discussion ZiH 96 Agenda (cont.) 12:30- 14:00 Lunch at University of Lausanne, Restaurant de Dorigny 14:00- 15:30 Regional Outlook : Western Europe and Japan Chair : Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University Western Europe " Summary Andrÿ Dramaisÿ Commission of the EU, Brussels Japan : Summary Chikashi Morigushi, Osaka University General Discussion 15:30- 16:00 Break 16:00- 17:30 European Policy |ssues Chair : Jean-Pierre Danthine, Universiÿ/ of Lausanne Employment, Inequaliÿ/ and Flexibiliÿ/ Nige! Pain, National Institute for Economic Research, London Is There Convergence in a Two-Speed Europe 2 Evidence From European Labour Markets Andrew Hughes-HaileR, University of Strathclyde The Cost of European Economic Union Peter Pauly, University of Toronto 18:00 - 19:30 Reception : University of Lausanne Petite salle de La Grange of Dorigny ZiHk 96 Agenda (cont.) Tuesday, October 1 9:00- 10:30 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : North America Chair : @eert de Wet, Umversi[3/ of Pretoria North America : Summary Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania Will President Clinton Be Reelected ? A Politometric Analysis Raymond Courbis, GAMA, Universitd de Paris-Nanterre Family Background, Inter2enerational Mobi/iÿ and Income Distribution : Evidence from the United States Ramses H. Abul Naga, University of Lausanne 10:30- 11:00 Break 11:00- 12:30 ]Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Asia Chair : Duncan Ironmonger, Universiÿ of Melbourne Asia : Summary J. Malcolm Dowling, University of Melbourne A Theoretical Model for Chinese State-Owned Enterprise Reform Tong Wang, State Commission for Economic Restructuring, Beijing Foreign Capital Int]ow in Asia-Pacific Countries Salahuddin Ahmad, International Development Planning Institute, Dhaka 12:30- 14:00 Lunch at University of Lausanne, Restaurant de Dori2ny 96 Agenda (cont.l 14:00- 15:30 International Economic Issues Chair : Carlo D'Add& Universita Bologna The Internationa! Synchronization of Economic Fluctuations in the Developed and Developing Countries Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University, Stefan Schleicher, University of Graz Disaggregated Modeling of the US-Japan- World Economy F. Gerard Adams, University of Pennsylvania, B. Gangnes, University of Hawaii, Shuntaro Shishido and A. Movchouk, ERINA, Niigata The Characterization of Emerging Economies Adolfo Castilla, Universidad Alfonso X E1 Sabio, Madrid and Manuel Luna, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid Y 2 15:30- 16:00 Break 16:00- 17:30 Economic Development Issues Chair : CMkasM lgorigucM, Osaka UniversiO/ The Role of Intangible Capital in the Economic Growth of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University Macroeconomic Consequences of Financial Liberalization Gangadhar Darbha, A. Ganesh Kumar and Kirit Parikh Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Bombay Policy Initiatives for Margina/ized Sectors Janet Farooq, ESCAP, Bangkok 19:00 - 20:00 Reception • Canton de Vaud and City of Lausanne Salle des fOtes du Casino de Montbenon, Lausanne ki. 96 Agenda (cont.) Wednesday, October 2 9:00- 10:30 Trade and Regional Arrangements Chair' Joaquin ViM, C/EPLA/E, Santiago A Century of Trade E/asticities for Canada, Japan and the United States daime Marquez, Federal Reserve Board, Washington /ntensiO/ Measures for Regiona/ Groupings Sheila Page, ODI, London Exchange Rates and Trade Patterns in the Asia Pacific Region F. Gerard Adams, University of Pennsylvania, Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii and Shuntaro Shishido, ERINA, Niigata 10:30 - 11:00 Break 11:00- 12:00 Panel Discussion Chair " Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Prospects for the World Trading System Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania David Mayes, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Barry Herman, United Nations, New York Kirit Parikh, Indira Gandhi Institute, Bombay 13:00 Excursion to Gruy@res (departure from University) 18:30 Aperitif and dinner at Hostellerie St Georges, Gruyÿres LiHk 96 ,CiHk 96 Agenda (contD Thursday, October 3 9:00- 10:30 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Africa and Middle East Chair : Hans Timmer, Centra/ Planning Bureau, The Hague African and Middle East Outlook : Summary dean K. Thisen and Siddig Salih, ECA, Addis Ababa The Impacts of Exchange Rate Changes on Growth and IntTation in Sub-Saharan Africa Cletus Dordunoo, GIMPA, Achimota, Ghana Modelling Population Growth for Economic Development in Africa Jean K. Thisen, ECA, Addis Ababa 10:30 - 11:00 Break 11:00 - 12:30 High-Frequency Analysis of International Financial Markets Chair : Rajna Gibson, Universiÿ of Lausanne Swap Credit Risk : An Empirical Investigation on Transaction Data Hughes Pirotte, University of Lausanne Invited Lecture Modelling the Volatilily of Asset Returns Thomas McCurdy, University of Toronto 12:30 - 14:00 Lunch at University of Lausanne, Restaurant de Dorigny 96 Agenda (cont.) 14:00- 15:30 The Sources of Growth Chair : Shfnfchf lchfmura, ICSEAD, Kitakyushu RfÿD Spi/lovers and Global Growth David Coe, International Monetaw Fund, Washington The Growth of Tigers, Elephants and Other Metaphorical Creatures Under Heterogeneous Capital James Gapinski, Florida State University Mu/tisectoral Growth With Marshallian Externalities Klaus Neusser, University of Berne 16:00 - 17:30 Regional Outlook : Latin America and Transition Economies Chair : Thomas Wilson, University of Toronto Latin America : Summary Pedro Sainz, ECLAC, Santiago Transition Economies : Summary Daniel Bachmann, ECE, Geneva General Discussion Friday, October 4 9:00- 10:30 Topics in Model|ing : Factor Demand Chair : dean-Christian £ambelet, Universiÿ of Lausanne A New System of Factor Demand Equations for the NIESR Domestic Model Garry Young, NIESR, London Investment in LINK Reconsidered Pingfan Hong, United Nations, Hung-Yi Li and Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Investment in Developing Countries and Financial Constraints Clever Mumbengegwi, University of Zimbabwe ZiHk 96 Agenda (cont.t 10:30- 11:00 Break 11:00- 12:30 Topics in Modelling (cont.) Chair ." Tzong-Biau Lin, National Chung-Cheng University, Taiwan A Cost Effectiveness Ana/ysis Comparing Different Vaccination Strategies Against Hepatitis in Switzerland Pascal Zurn, University of Lausanne Invited Lecture Non-Stationarity and Panel Data Stephen G. Hall, Imperial College 12:30- 14:00 Lunch at University of Lausanne, Restaurant de Dorigny 14:00 - 15:30 Topics in Modelling (cant,) Chair : Wladys/aw Welfe, University of Lodz 'l Long- Term Projections of the World Economy, J996-20J5 i Akira Onishi, Soka University ,I MERITE : An Econometric Model for Toga dean-Marc Phillippe, Ministÿre du Plan et de l'Amdnagement du Territoire, Togo The State of Macroeconomic Data in Africa E. Olawale Ogunkola, University of Ibadan, Nigeria 15:30 - 16:00 Break 16:00- 17:00 Business Meeting Chair " Peter Pau/y, University of Toronto 1997 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Spring Meeting 24-27 March 1997 United Nations, New York LIST OF COUNTRY REPORTS 1. Argentina 2. Australia 3. Austria 4. Bangladesh 5. Belgium 6. Botswana 7. Brazil 8. Bulgaria 9. Canada 10. Chile 11. China 12. Colombia 13. Costa Rica 14. Croatia 15. Czech Republic 16. Denmark 17. France 18. Germany 19. Ghana 20. Greece 21. Hong Kong 22. Hungary 23. India 24. Indonesia 25. Ireland 26. Israel 27. Italy 28. Japan 29. Korea 30. Malaysia 31. Nepal 32. Netherlands 33. Nigeria 34. Norway 35. Philippines 36. Poland 37. Romania 38. Russia 39. Singapore 40. Slovak Republic 41. Slovenia 42. South Africa 43. Spain 44. Switzerland 45. Taiwan 46. Togo 47. Turkey 48. Ukraine 49. United Kingdom 50. Venezuela 51. Vietnam 1997 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia AGENDA OUTLINE SUNDAY 21ST.SEPTEMBER Evening : Welcome Reception at Dynasty Hotel, Kuala Lumpur MONDAY 22ND.SEPTEMBER Session I : World Economic Outlook Session II : World Economic Outlook (cont.) Session Ill : Economic Growth in Asia Session IV : Regional Outlook & Policy Issues : North America & Japan TUESDAY 23RD.SEPTEMBER Session I : Regional Outlook & Policy Issues : Europe Session 1I : Current Economic Policy Issues Session llI: The International Business Cycle Session IV : Asian Economic Policy Issues WEDNESDAY 24TH.SEPTEMBER Session I : Regional Economic Outlook : Economies in Transition Session II : Topics in Global Economics Afternoon : Excursion!Dinner & Cultural Show for Project Link Members Only THURSDAY 25TH.SEPTEMBER Session I : Financial Liberalization & International Trade Session II : Exchange Rate Policy in ASEAN Session III : Sources of Crrowth in Asia Session IV : Regional Outlook : Asia & Latin America FRIDAY 26TH.SEPTEMBER Session I : Topics in Modelling Session II : Topics in Modelling (cont.) Policy Analysis Session 11I : Topics in Modelling (cont.) Session IV : Regional Outlook & Policy Issues ; Africa LINK Developments & Business Meeting AGENDA MONDAY SEPTEMBER 22ND. 9115-10:00 Welcome And Keynote Address "Malaysia's Experience In Industrial Development" Dato" J. Jegathesan (Deputy Director General 1) Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (MIDA) 10:00-11:00 World Economic Outlook Chair : Lawrence 1L Klein, University of Pennsylvania "Project Link World Outlook" Anatoty Smyshlyaev, United Nations, New YorL "Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries" Milan Brambhatt, The World Bank, Washington. 11100-11115 Break 11:15-12:45 World Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair : Lawrence IL Klein, University of Pennsylvania. "The IMF International Economic Outlook" Ramana Ramaswamy, International Monetary Fund, Washington. "The NIESR Outlook" Ray Barrell, NIESR, LonclorL "International Commodity Markets" Robert Kaufmarm, Boston University Darnell Smith, Iowa State University. 1:00-2:00 Lunch 2115-3:45 Economic Growth in Asia Chair : Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University. Invited Lecture (2115-3:15) "The Sources of East Asian Growth" Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University "Total Factor Productivity in Asia" JeÿTts Felipe, Asian Developement Bank, Manila 3 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : North America and Japan Chair: Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University. "North America : Summary" Lawrence R.Kliett, University qf Petmÿlvania "'Japan : Summary" Chikashi Moriguchi , Osaka Universi& "Modelling Japanese Trade: Do Prices Matter" Byron Gangÿws, Universiÿ, of Hawaii TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 23RD. 9:30-11:00 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: Europe Chair:Duncan Ironmonger, University of Melbourne. "Europe: Summary" Amtre Dramais, Commission of the European Comtmmities, Brussels "Fiscal Policy Design After the Maastricht Shock" Heinz Ghtck aÿtd Stefan Schleicher, Austrian National Bank attd University of Graz "Fiscal Policies and Fiscal Correction" Barry Herman, United Nations, New York 11:00-11:15 Break 11:15-12:45 Current Policy Issues Chair.Duncan Ironmonger, University of Melbourne. Invited Lecture (11:15-12:15) "Monetary Policy and Monetary Poficy Indicators" David Mayes, Bank of Finland "Read Interest Rates and Growth" Carlo D "Adda , University of Bologna 1:00-2:00 Lunch 2:15-3.'45 The International Business Cycle Chair:Chikashi Moriguchi, Osaka University. "The International Synchronization of Economic Fluctuations in the Developed and Developing Countries" Bert G. Hickman and Stefan Sehleicher Stanford University and University of Graz. "Stylized Facts of the Business Cycle Revisited : A Modelling Approach" Lauraztce Boone attd Stephen Hall, CEPII , Paris attd Imperial College, London "Inventory Investment, Financial Constraints and the Business Cycle" Gangadhar Darbha , btdira Gandhi Institute, Mumbai. 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Asian Economic Policy Issues Chair :Chikashi Moriguchi, Osaka University. "FEER's for NIE's" Ray Barrell, National btstitute for Economic Research, London "Domestic Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness in Emerging Economies: The Case of the Phillipines" Roberto Marlcmo and Tayyeb Shabbir, University of Pennsylvcmia "Special Economic Zones and the Opening of the Chinese Economy" Wei Ge , Bucknell University WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 24TEL 9:30-11:00 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Economics in Transition Chair:Hans Timmer, Central Planning Bureau, The Hagueÿ "Macroeconomic Effects of Joining the EU for Transition Economy : the Czech Republic" L Sujan andM. Sujanova, Czech Statistical Office, Prague "Medium - and Long -Term Development of the Polish Economy" W. Welfw, A. Welfe, and W. Florezak, University of Lodz "On the Theory and Practice of Stabilization Policy in a Transition Economy and Forecasting Its Development" Valery Heyets, National Academy of Sciences, Kiev. 11:00-11:15 Break l 1:15-12:15 Topics in Global Economics Chair:Hans Timmer, Central Planning Bureau, The Hague. "Human Activity and Global Temperature" Robert Kaufraann, Boston University " Structural Adjustment and Growth: A Case Study of Bangladesh" Salahuddun Ahmad, Development Plmming, Dhaka. 1:30 P.M. For Project Link Members Only: Excursion to KL & Suburbs followed by Dinner & Cultural Show at Sri Melayu KL. THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 25TEL 9:30-11:00 Financial Liberalization and International Trade Chair.Peter Pauly, University of Toronto. Invited lecture (9:30-10:30) "Financial Liberalization and World Trade" Lawrence R . Klein, University of Pennsylvania General Discussion 11:00-11:15 Break 11:15-12:45 Exchange Rate Policy in ASEAN Chair:Peter Pauly, University of Toronto. Pand Discussion Participants: Iwan £ Azi& Cornell University and University of Indonesia Diwa Camigjaufo, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipitÿ' Muthi Samudram, MBF Northern Securities, Kuala Lumtmr Pichit PalrawimolpoI, Central Bank of Thailand 1:00-2:00 Lunch 2:15-3:45 The Sources of Growth in Asia Chair:Ian Kinniburgh, United Nations. "Asian Growth Prospects: Convergence and Technology Transfer" J. Malcom Dowling, University of Melboatrne "Economic Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region" James Gapinski, Florida State University "A Neoclassical Analysis of the ASEAN and East Asia's Growth Experience" Toh A4un Heng aÿut Tiew Chee Slang, NatiotÿI University of Singapore 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Asia and Latin America Chair:Ian Kinniburgh, United Nations. "Latin America : Summary" Pedro Sainz, ECLAC, Santiago "Asia- Summary" J.Malcolm Dowling, University of Melbourne. "China's Housing Reform: Policy and Modelling" Wang Tong, State Commission for Restructuring Economic Systems, Beijing "China's Sustainable Growth Maximized vy Avoiding Agricultural and Energy Shortages with Renewable Energy Resources" Clark Abt, Abt Associates, Cambridge FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 26TH. 9:00-11:00 Topics in Modelling Chair:Roberto Mariano, University of Pennsylvania. "Modelling Wages and the Supply Side of the UK Economy" Stephen Hall azÿl James Nixon , Imperial College, London & London Business School "Price and Income Elasticities of!mports Revisited" Pingfan Hong, Uttited Nations , New York "Quest II: A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model" Andre Dramais, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels 11:00-11:15 Break 7 11:15-12:45 Topics in Modelling (cont.) : Policy Modelling Chair :Roberto Mariano, University of Pennsylvania. Invited Lecture ( 11: ! 5-12:45) "Modelling Economic Policy Responses Stephen G. Hall, Imperial College ,London "The BOF5 Macroeconomic Model of the Finnish Economy" Hamta-Leena A4aTmisto, Bÿtk of Fitÿaland 1:00-2:00 Lunch 2:15-3:45 Topics in Modelling (cont.): National Models Chair:Adoifo Castillÿ Universidad Alfonso X E! Sablo, Madrid. "The RW1 Model of flÿe German Economy" Gyorgy Barabas; RW1, Essen "A New Macroeconometric Simulation Model W8 of the Polish Economy. WIadyslaw Welfe , University of Lodz "Modelling Results for Malaysia" Muthi Sanmdram, MBF Northern Securities, Kuala Lumtmr 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-5:00 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Africa Chair:Adolfo Castilla, Universidad Alfonso X El Sabio, Madrid. "African and Middle East Outlook : Summary" Siddiq Salih, ECA, Addis A baba "Analysis of Productivity Growth: The Case of Selected Industries in Ghana" C/etus Doraÿmoo, GIMPA, Achlmota, Ghatuÿ "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on African Trade Flows" Sara Olofin and E. Olawale Ogunkola, University of Ibada 5:00-6:00 LINK Developments and Business Meeting Chair: Peter Pauly, University of Toronto "Current Account closure in LINK °' Dae Choi , Utÿited Nations, New York LINK ACTIVITIES 1998 New York, NY, USA PROJECT LINK MEETING United Nations, New York 16-19 March 1998 List of Country Reports 1. Argentina 2. Australia 3. Austria 4. Bangladesh 5. Belgium 6. Botswana 7. Brazil 8. Bulgaria 9. Canada 10. Chile 11. China 12. Costa Rica 13. Croatia 14. Czech Republic 15. Denmark 16. Finland 17. France 18. Germany 19. Ghana 20. Greece 21. Hong Kong 22. Hungary 23. India 24. Indonesia 25. Ireland 26. Israel 27. Italy 28. Japan 29. Korea 30. Malaysia 31. Mexico 32. Nepal 33. Netherlands 34. New Zealand 35. Nigeria 36. Norway 37. Philippines 38. Poland 39. Romania 40. Russia 41. Singapore 42. Slovak Republic 43. Slovenia 44. South Africa 45. Spain 46. Sweden 47. Switzerland 48. Taiwan 49. Togo 50. Turkey 51 Ukraine 52. United Kingdom 53. Venezuela 54. Vietnam 55. Zambia Note: These reports may be found at URL: http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/link/ctry.html 1998 Rio de Janiero, Brazil PROJECT LINK MEETING Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 14-18 September 1998 List of Country Reports 1. Argentina 2. Australia 3. Austria 4. Bangladesh 5. Belgium 6. Botswana 7. Brazil 8. Bulgaria 9. Canada 10. China 11. Costa Rica 12. Croatia 13. Czech Republic 14. Denmark 15. Estonia 16. Finland 17. France 18. Germany 19. Ghana 20. Greece 21. Hong Kong 22. Hungary 23. India 24. Ireland 25. Italy 26. Japan 27. Korea 28. Malaysia 29. Mexico 30. Nepal 31. Netherlands 32. New Zealand 33 Nigeria 34. Norway 35. Philippines 36. Poland 37. Romania 38. Russia 39. Singapore 40. Slovak Republic 41 Slovenia 42. South Africa 43. Spain 44. Switzerland 45. Taiwan 46. Togo 47. Turkey 48. Ukraine 49. United Kingdom 50. United States 51. Venezuela 52. Vietnam Note: Most of these reports may be found at URL: http://www.chass.utoronto.caJlink/ctry.html 1999 New York, NY,USA Agenda: 1999 Spring LINK Meeting file:///C:/DOCUME~1/KATHER~1.MCH/LOCALS~1/Temp/agenda.htm Project LINK Spring Meeting May 3-6, 1999 United Nations Headquarters, New York Conference Room 4 Preliminary Agenda Monday , May 3 10:00 Opening Address Nitin Desai , Under-Secretary-General, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations 10:15 Global Outlook -1:00 "The World Economic Outlook : Summary" Peter Pauly , University of Toronto "United Nations Project LINK" Jozef van Brabant , United Nations "The World Bank" Bertram Wolfe , The World Bank "The International Monetary Fund" N.N. , IMF "The OECD" Pete Richardson , OECD "The National Institute for Economic Research" Ray Barrell , NIESR 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30 World Economic Outlook (cont.) -4:00 "Panel on World Commodity Markets" Participants : Willy Meyers , Iowa State University Robert Kaufmann , Boston University F. Gerard Adams , Northeastern University General Discussion 1 of 4 20/06/2012 3:19 PM Agenda: 1999 Spring LINK Meeting file:///C:/DOCUME~1/KATHER~1.MCH/LOCALS~1/Temp/agenda.htm 4:00 Regional Outlook : North America and Japan -5:30 "The U.S. Outlook" Lawrence R. Klein , University of Pennsylvania "The Outlook for the Japanese Economy" Kanemi Ban , Osaka University General Discussion Evening : Conference Dinner Tuesday , May 4 10:00 Enlargement of the European Union - 1:00 "EU Enlargement : Prospects and Problems" Richard Portes , London Business School (*) "EU Enlargement : Trade and Economic Development" Michael Landesmann , Vienna Institute for International Econ. Studies (*) "Implications for Third Countries" Jozef van Brabant , United Nations "Panel : The View Central Commentary" Wladyslaw Welfe , University of Lodz Constantin Ciupagea , Inmstitute for World Economics , Bucarest Milan Klima , Czech National Bank 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30- Regional Outlook : Europe 4:30 "Summary" Andre Dramais , Commission of the EU General Discussion LINK National Participants "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Europe" Ray Barrell , NIESR , London 4:30- Regional Outlook : Africa and Middle East 5:30 "Africa : Summary " Edouard Nsimba , United Nations "Middle East : Summary" 2 of 4 20/06/2012 3:19 PM Agenda: 1999 Spring LINK Meeting file:///C:/DOCUME~1/KATHER~1.MCH/LOCALS~1/Temp/agenda.htm Siddig Salih , Islamic Development Bank , Jeddah General Discussion LINK National Representatives Wednesday , May 5 10:00 International Financial Markets -1:00 "Aspects of a New International Financial Architecture" Barry Eichengreen , University of California at Berkeley (*) "Financial Market Contagion and the Effects of the Crises in East Asia, Russia, and Latin America" Ray Barrell , NIESR , London "International Effects of the Crisis in Emerging Markets" Pete Richardson , OECD General Discussion 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30- Regional Outlook : Latin America 4:00 "Latin America : Summary" Pedro Sainz , ECLAC General Discussion LINK National Representatives 4:00 Regional Outlook : Asia - 5:30 "Asia : Summary" Azizul Islam , ESCAP Discussion LINK National Representatives Thursday, May 6 10:00 Globalization -12:00 "Beyond Meltdown : The Global Battle for Sustained Growth" Peter Brain , NIEIR , Melbourne "Globalization and Developing Countries" Olav Bjerkholt , University of Oslo General Discussion 3 of 4 20/06/2012 3:19 PM Agenda: 1999 Spring LINK Meeting file:///C:/DOCUME~1/KATHER~1.MCH/LOCALS~1/Temp/agenda.htm 12:00 LINK Business Meeting - 1:00 Chair : Peter Pauly Expected Close of Meeting : 1:00 p.m. 4 of 4 20/06/2012 3:19 PM 1999 Athens, Greece Annex A AGENDA Monday, November 1 10:00-10:30 Welcome 10:30-11:30 World Economic Outlook Chair: Lawrence R. Klein "Project LINK World Outlook" Jozef van Brabant, United Nations, New York "The World Bank Global Economic Prospects" Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, The World Bank, Washington 11:30-11:45 Break 11:45-1:00 World Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair: Lawrence R. Klein "The OECD International Economic Outlook" Pete Richardson, OECD, Paris "The NIESR International Economic Outlook" Ray Barrell, NIESR, London "International Commodity Markets" Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Robert Young II, University of Missouri 1:00-2:15 Lunch 2:30-4:00 Monetary Policy Issues: Targetting Chair: Carlo D'Adda "Econometric Inflation Targetting" Gunnar Bardsen, Eilev Jansen and Ragnar Nymoen, Bank of Norway, Oslo "Managing Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: The Value of Publishing Official Central Bank Forecasts" David Mayes and Juha Tarkka, Bank of Finland, Helsinki 4:00-4:15 Break 4:15-5:45 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: North America and Japan Chair: Eustaquio Reis "North America : Summary" Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania "Japan: Summary" Kanemi Ban, Osaka University "Latin America: Summary" Pedro Sainz, ECLAC, Santiago Tuesday, November 2 9:30-11:00 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: Europe Chair: Pedro Palma "Europe: Summary" Peter Pauly, University of Toronto "Real Growth Comparisons for OECD Countries" Jean Christian Lambelet, Universit4 de Lausanne "Economic Dimensions of the Stability Pact for South-East Europe" Franjo Stiblar, University of Ljubljana 11:00-11:15 Break 11:15-12:45 Labour Market Issues Chair: Byron Gangnes "Labour Market Policies: the Dutch Experience" Hans Timmer, Central Planning Bureau, The Hague "Labour Market Institutions in Europe and the Transmission Mechanism" Loic Cadiou, Stephane Guichard and Mathilde Maurel, CEPII, Paris 1:00-2:15 Lunch 2:30-4:00 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: Asia and Africa Chair: Thomas Wilson "Asia: Summary" J. Malcolm Dowling, University of Melbourne Azizul Islam, ESCAP, Bangkok "African and Middle East Outlook: Summary" Jean Thisen, ECA, Addis Ababa "Analysis of the Impact of the East Asian Crisis on Ghana: an Econometric Investigation" C.K. Dordunoo and H.A. Sackey, GIMPA, Ghana 4:00-4:15 Break 4:15-5:45 International Financial Issues Chair: Adolfo Castilla "International Monetary Policy Coordination: an Evaluation of Comparative Strategies Using Large Econometric Models" Ray Barrell and Karen Duty, NIESR, London "Predicting the Evolution and Effects of the Asia Crisis From an OECD Perspective" Pete Richardson, Ignazio Visco, and Claude Giorno, OECD, Paris "Markov Switches in Predictive Models of Sovereign and Financial Crises" Roberto Mariano, Suleyman Ozmucur, and Tayyeb Shabbir, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Wednesday, November 3 Full - Day Excursion Thursday, November 4 9::30-11:00 Perspectives on the Greek Economy Chair: George Zanias Participants: Nikos Christodoulakis, Deputy Minister of Economics and Finance Nicholas Garganas, Deputy Governor, Bank of Greece Stavros Thomadakis, Chairman, Capital Markets Commission 11:00-11:15 Break 11:15-12:45 Modelling the Greek Economy I Chair: Duncan Ironmonger "The Supply Block in the Macroeconometric KEPE Model" Stella Balfoussia, KEPE, Athens "Wage Behaviour, Productivity, and Inflation" Nick Zonzilos and Stephen Hall, Bank of Greece, Athens and Imperial College, London "The Role of Infrastructure on Economic Growth, Employment and the Environment: Modelling and Forecasting the Greek Economy" N. Christodoulakis and S. Kalyvitis, Ministry of Economics and Finance, Athens and University of Cyprus 1:00-2:15 Lunch 2:30-4:00 Monetary Issues in the EMU Chair: Nicholas Garganas "Measuring Core Inflation in Greece" Leonidas Zarangas Stella Balfoussia, KEPE, Athens "Pegging the CEEC's Currencies to the Euro" Agnes Benassy-Quere and Amina Lahrÿche-R4vil, CEPII, Paris "Monetary Policy Targets in the EMU" Peter Pauly, University of Toronto 4:00-4:15 Break 4:15-5:45 Modelling the Greek Economy II Chair: Ullrich Heilemann "The Future of Public Pensions in Greece: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model" R. Loufir and N. Leandros, KEPE, Bank of Greece and Panteion University, Athens "Leading Inflation Indicators for Greece" H.D. Gibson and S. Lazaretou, Bank of Greece, Athens "The Demand for Money in Greece" S. Brissimis, G. Hondroyiannis, and G. Tavlas, Bank of Greece, Athens, and IMF, Washington Friday, November 5 9:30-11:00 Topics in Modelling Chair: Stephen Hall "Sample-Selection Problems in a Macroeconometric Model Context - Some Further Results" Gyorgy Barabas and Ulrich Heilemann, RWI Institute, Essen "Testing for non-linearities and unit roots in Real Exchange Rates - further evidence" Gangadhar Dharba, IGIDR, Mumbai "Consumption Functions in the LINK System" Pingfan Hong, United Nations, New York 11:15-12:45 Current Policy Issues: Asia Chair: Bert Hickman "The Effect of the Asian Financial Crisis on Trade Liberalization in APEC: with Particular Reference to the ASEAN Countries" Toh Mun Heng and Tan Kong Yam, National University of Singapore "Capital Controls and Their Effect on the Macroeconomy: Malaysian Experience" Muthi Samudram, Institute Loyal ITA, Ipoh, Malaysia "The Asian Currency Crisis: Domestic Fundamentals and International Linkages" Dongchul Cho and Kiseok Hong, KDI, Seoul 1:00-2:15 Lunch 2:30-4:00 Macroeconometric Models I Chair: Wladyslaw Welfe "A New Prototype Model for International Macroeconomics" Jean-Louis Brillet and Gilbert Cette, INSEE, Paris "A Quarterly Model of the Russian Economy" E. Gavrilenkov, SGB Henry, and J. Nixon, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moscow, London Business School, and Bank of England, London "Macromodel of the Romanian Transition Economy" Emilian Dobrescu, Institute of World Economics, Bucarest 4:00-4:15 Break 4:15-5:15 Macroeconometric Models II Chair: Peter Pauly "The Annual Model of the Polish Economy" Wladyslaw Welfe, Waldemar Florczak., and Alexander Welfe, University of Lodz, Poland "Modelling Inflation and the Dynamics of Inflation in Malawi" Perks Ligoya, Central Bank of Malawi 5:15-5:45 LINK Developments and Business Meeting Chair: Peter Pauly, University of Toronto 2000 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Spring Meeting April 17-20, 2000 United Nations Headquarters, New York Conference Room 2 Aÿenda Monday, April 17 10:00 Opening Address Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations 10:15 Global Outlook -1:00 Chair : Lawrence Klein "The World Economic Outlook : Summary" Peter Pauly , University of Toronto Review of the Global Outlook Participants : "United Nations Project LINK" Jozef van Brabant , United Nations "The International Monetary Fund" Ranil Salgado , IMF "The World Bank" Annette De Kleine , The World Bank "The OECD" Laurence Boone, OECD "The National Institute of Economic and Social Research" Ray Barrell , NIESR 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30 Global Outlook (cont.) -3:30 Chair : Peter Pauly General Discussion 3:30 International Economic Issues -4:30 Chair : Peter Pauly "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries" Frederic Mishkin, Columbia University General Discussion 4:30 Global Outlook (cont.) -5:30 Chair : Peter Pauly "Review of Commodity Markets" F. Gerard Adams, Northeastern University Robert Kaufmann, Boston University General Discussion Tuesday, April 18 10:00 Regional Economic Outlook : North America and Japan -12:00 Chair : Stephen Hall "The U.S. Outlook" Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania "The Outlook for the Japanese Economy" Kanemi Ban, Osaka University General Discussion LINK National Participants 12:00- Emerging Markets Outlook 1:00 Chair : Stephen Hall "Russia : Summary" Evgeny Gavrilenkov , Moscow General Discussion LINK National Participants 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30- Regional Economic Outlook : Europe 4:30 Chair : Delia Nilles "Europe : Summary" Andre Dramais , Commission of the EU "How Rapidly Is Europe Changing ?" Adrian Cooper, Oxford Economic Forecasting General Discussion 4:30- Regional Outlook : Africa and Middle East 5:30 Chair : Delia Nilles "Africa: Summary" Edouard Nsimba , United Nations "Middle East : Summary" Siddig Salih, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah General Discussion LINK National Representatives Wednesday, April 19 10:00 New Economy and Productivity -1:00 Chair : Bert Hickman "The 'New' Global Economy : B2B and the Internet" Ed McKelvey , Goldman Sachs, New York "A New Economy ?" Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania "Global Implications of the 'New Economy'" Pingfan Hong , United Nations General Discussion 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30 Regional Outlook : Latin America -4:00 Chair : Hans Timmer "Latin America : Summary" Pedro Sainz , ECLAC General Discussion LINK National Representatives 4:00 International Economic Issues -5:30 Chair : Hans Timmer "Quest II Simulations of A Stock Market Correction and Possible Policy Reactions" Andre Dramais , Commission of the European Union "Project LINK Asset Market Simulations Results : A Review" Pingfan Hong , United Nations General Discussion Thursday, April 20 10:00 Regional Outlook : Asia - 12:30 Chair : Duncan Ironmonger "Asia: Summary" Azizul Islam, ESCAP "Post-Crisis Restructuring in Asia" Malcolm Dowling , ADB/University of Melbourne Panel Discussion on East Asian Economies Iwan Azis , Indonesia Kiseok Hong , Korea Pichit Patrawimolpon, Thailand Muthi Samudram, Malaysia Socorro Zingapan , Philippines General Discussion 12:30 LINK Business Meeting - 1:00 Chair : Peter Pauly Expected Close of Meeting: 1:00 p.m. 2000 Oslo, Norway Project LINK Fall Meeting October 2-6, 2000 Hotel Radisson SAS Scandinavia Oslo , Norway hosted by Statistics Norway Oslo , Norway Program Committee Co-Chairs: Ådne Cappelen , Statistics Norway Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Members: Olav Bjerkholt , Oslo University ; Jozef van Brabant, United Nations, New York ; Ådne Cappelen , Statistics Norway ; Adolfo Castilla, Universidad Alfonso X el Sabio, Madrid ; Stephen G. Hall, Imperial College, London Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University, California ; Duncan Ironmonger, University of Melbourne Eilev Jansen , Bank of Norway ; Lawrence R. Klein , University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Chikashi Moriguchi, Osaka University ; Pedro Palma, Metroeconomica , Caracas Mette Rolland , The Banking, Insurance and Securities Commission of Norway, Oslo ; Hans Timmer , The World Bank Local Organization Ådne Cappelen , Solfrid Malo ; Statistics Norway Meeting Preparation Erin Foster University of Toronto Agenda Outline Sunday, October 1 Reception Desk, 8:00-10:00pm , Foyer of Scandinavia Ballroom Radisson SAS Scandinavia Hotel Monday, October 2 Session I: World Economic Outlook Session II: World Economic Outlook (cont.) Session III: Global Economic Trends: The World Oil Market Session IV: European Economic Policy Issues Evening : Reception , Oslo City Hall Tuesday, October 3 Session V: Economic Development Session VI: African Economic Development Session VII: Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: Asia and Latin America Session VIII: Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: North America, Japan & Europe Evening: Conference Dinner Wednesday, October 4 Full-Day Excursion Thursday, October 5 Session IX: The New International Economy Session X: International Economic Policy Issues Session XI: Applied International Economics Session XII: Applied Macroeconomics Friday, October 6 Session XIII: Modeling Techniques Session XIV: Forecasting Session XV: Macroeconometric Models I Session XVI: Applied Econometrics Session XVII: LINK Developments and Business Meeting Page 2 Preliminary Agenda Monday, October 2 9:00-9:30 Welcome Chair: Lawrence Klein Opening Remarks 9:30-10:30 World Economic Outlook Chair: Ådne Cappelen “Project LINK World Outlook” Jozef van Brabant, United Nations, New York “The World Bank Global Economic Prospects” Hans Timmer , The World Bank, Washington “The IMF International Economic Outlook” Torsten Sloek , International Monetary Fund, Washington 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-12:30 World Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair: Delia Nilles “The OECD International Economic Outlook” Pete Richardson, OECD, Paris “The NIESR International Economic Outlook” Ray Barrell, NIESR, London “The OEF International Outlook” John Walker , Oxford University 12:30-2:00 Lunch 2:00-3:30 Global Economic Trends : The World Oil Market Chair : Carlo D’Adda “Long-Run Trends on World Oil Markets” (tentative) Robert Kaufmann , Boston University “Global Economic Effects of Oil Prices : A Re-Assessment” Project LINK Panel Discussion Participants: Sam Olofin, University of Ibadan Page 3 Christina Rodriguez, Metroeconomica others TBC 3:30-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 European Economic Policy Issues Chair: Thomas Wilson “Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Europe” Ray Barrell and Nigel Pain , NIESR , London “Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area” David Mayes and Matti Viren , Bank of Finland , Helsinki “EMU and the Financial Rules” Jean-Louis Brillet , INSEE Paris 5:30 Reception, Oslo City Hall Tuesday, October 3 9:00-10:30 Economic Development Chair: George Zanias “Institutions and Growth” (Invited Lecture) Janine Aron , Oxford University “Growth, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa” Cletus Dordunoo , GIMPA , Ghana 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-12:30 African Development Chair: Olav Bjerkholt “Africa’s Development Traps and How It Might Escape From Them” (Invited Lecture) Paul Collier , The World Bank “Trade Liberalization in Zimbabwe – Experiences and Modeling” Jørn Rattsø , Trondheim 12:30-2:00 Lunch 2:00-3:30 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Asia and Latin America Chair: Adolfo Castilla Page 4 “Asia: Summary” J. Malcolm Dowling, University of Melbourne Azizul Islam, ESCAP, Bangkok Rajiv Kumar , ADB , Manila “East Asian Integration as a Determinant of the International Economic Architecture” Wendy Dobson , University of Toronto “Latin American Outlook: Summary” Pedro Sainz, ECLAC 3:30-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: North America, Japan, and Europe Chair: Muthi Samudram “North America: Summary” Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania “Japan: Summary” Kanemi Ban , Osaka University “Western Europe : Summary” Peter Pauly, University of Toronto “Central and Eastern Europe: Summary” Franjo Stiblar, Ekonomski Institute Pravne Fakultete Wednesday, October 4 9:00 am - 8:30 pm Full – Day Excursion: Lillehammer Gather at Radisson for 9:00 am departure Thursday, October 5 9:00-10:30 The New International Economy Chair: Jan van Heerden “The New Economy : Global Effects” Matthew Shane and T. Roe , USDA , Washington and University of Minnesota “How Different is the New Economy?” Bert G. Hickman and Robert Coen , Stanford University and Northwestern University Page 5 “The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment : Estimating a Time- Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries” Pete Richardson, Laurence Boone, Claude Giorno, Mara Meacci, David Rae, and Dave Turner, OECD , Paris 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-12:30 International Economic Policy Issues Chair: Mette Rolland “Meaning and Implications of Tax Competition” (Invited Lecture) Jack Mintz , University of Toronto “Trade Liberalization and the Environment: A CGE Study for Norway” Taran Fæhn and Erling Holmøy, Statistics Norway 12:30-2:00 Lunch 2:00-3:30 Applied International Economics Chair: Ofelia Templo “Interest Rate Linkages : Identifying Structural Relations” Stephen G. Hall , Imperial College , London “Testing for Long-Run Stability : an Application to the Money Multiplier in India” Gangadhar Darbha , National Institute of Public Finance and Policy , Delhi “News and Dollar Exchange Rate Dynamics” Massimo Tivegna , LUISS , Rome 3:30-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Applied Macroeconomics Chair: Orhan Güvenen “Expectations in Export Price Formation: Testing Using Cointegrated VAR Models P. Boug, Ådne Cappelen, and A. R. Swenson, Statistics Norway “Potential Output and Foreign Trade in Small Open Economies” Zsolt Darvas and Andras Simon , National Bank of Hungary “Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty” Gunnar Bardsen, Eilev S. Jansen, and Ragnar Nymoen , Bank of Norway Page 6 Friday, October 6 9:00-10:30 Modeling Techniques Chair: Aleksander Welfe “Comparing Macroeconometric Models : Lessons From the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau (b.1983, d. 1999)” (Invited Lecture) Kenneth F. Wallis , Warwick University “Statistical Issues in Macroeconomic Modelling” Eilev Jansen , Bank of Norway 10:30-11:00 Break 11:00-12:30 Forecasting Chair: Byron Gangnes “Testing Forecast Accuracy” Roberto S. Mariano , University of Pennsylvania “What Do OECD Forecasts Reveal” Heinz Glueck , Stefan Schleicher, and Rosaria Catena , Austrain National bank and University of Graz “Progess From Forecast Failure – The Norwegian Consumption Function” Øyvind Eitrheim, Eilev S. Jansen , and Ragnar Nymoen , Bank of Norway 12:30-2:00 Lunch 2:00-3:30 Macroeconometric Models I Chair: Constantin Ciupagea “Policies for Stability and Growth: Experiments With a Large and Comprehensive Structureal Model for India” V. Pandit , Delhi School of Economics “A Computational General Equilibrium Model with Vintage Capital” Loic Cadiou, Stéphane Dées, and Jean-Pierre Laffargue , CEPII and CEPREMAP, Paris “Incorporating Regional Variations in a Macroeconometric Model for India : A Production Frontier Approach” Shashanka Bhide and K.P. Kalirajan ,. NCAER , Delhi and ANU , Canberra 3:30-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Applied Econometrics Chair: Wladyslaw Welfe Page 7 “Rational Expectations in Export Price Setting ? – An Empirical Study” Ingvild Svendsen , Bank of Norway “Long-Term Global Projections of Household Numbers and Size Distributions for LINK Countries and Regions” Duncan Ironmonger , University of Melbourne “When Does the Oil Price Affect the Norwegian Exchange Rate” Quaisar Farooq Akram , Bank of Norway 5:30-6:00 LINK Developments and Business Meeting Chair: Peter Pauly Page 8 2001 New York, NY,USA Project LINK Spring Meeting April 9-11, 2001 United Nations Headquarters, New York Conference Room *** Preliminary Agenda Monday , April 9 10:00 Opening Address Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations 10:30 Global Outlook -1:00 Chair : Lawrence Klein AUnited Nations Project LINK@ Jozef van Brabant , United Nations , New York AThe International Monetary Fund@ TBA , IMF , Washington AThe World Bank@ Hans Timmer , The World Bank , Washington AThe OECD@ Pete Richardson, OECD , Paris AThe National Institute of Economic and Social Research@ Ray Barrell , NIESR , London 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30 Global Outlook (cont.) -3:30 Chair : Bert Hickman AOxford Economics@ TBA , Oxford Economics , Oxford AThe World Trade Organization@ Luanga Mukela , WTO , Geneva General Discussion 3:30 Current Policy Issues -4:30 Chair : Bert Hickman AAsset Prices and Monetary Policy@ Mark Gertler , New York University , New York General Discussion 4:30 Global Outlook (cont.) -5:30 Chair : Bert Hickman AReview of Commodity Markets@ Matt Shane , USDA , Washington Robert Kaufmann , Boston University , Boston General Discussion Tuesday , April 10 10:00 Regional Economic Outlook : North America and Japan -12:00 Chair : Stephen Hall AThe U.S. Outlook@ Lawrence R. Klein , University of Pennsylvania , Philadelphia AThe Outlook for the Japanese Economy@ Kanemi Ban , Osaka University , Osaka General Discussion LINK National Representatives 12:00- Regional Outlook : Transition Economies and Africa 1:00 Chair : Stephen Hall ARussia : Summary@ Evgeny Gavrilenkov , Higher School of Economics , Moscow AAfrica : Summary@ TBA , United Nations , New York General Discussion LINK National Representatives 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30- Regional Economic Outlook : Europe 4:30 Chair : Delia Nilles AEurope : Summary@ Andre Dramais , Commission of the EU , Brussels AMacroeconomic Management in the EU ?@ Ray Barrell , NIESR , London General Discussion LINK National Representatives 4:30- Developing Countries Outlook 5:30 Chair : Delia Nilles ATerms of Trade and Developing Countries@ George Zanias , KEPE , Athens General Discussion LINK National Representatives Wednesday , April 11 10:00 Regional Outlook : Latin America -11:30 Chair : Hans Timmer ALatin America : Summary@ TBA , ECLAC , Santiago General Discussion LINK National Representatives 11:30 Exchange Rate Policy -1:00 Chair : Hans Timmer A Exchange Rate Policy : The Cost of Conventional Wisdom@ John Williamson , IIE , Washington General Discussion 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30 Regional Outlook : Asia -4:00 Chair : Peter Pauly Panel Discussion on Asian Economies Ashfaque Khan , Ministry of Finance , Islamabad Ofelia Templo , NEDA , Manila Wang Tongsan , Academy of Social Sciences , Beijing General Discussion Expected Close of Meeting: 4:00 p.m. Expert Group Meeting on Prospects for the World Economy United Nations Headquarters 29-30 November 2001 Preliminary Agenda Thursday 29 November 10 a.m. - I p.m. Global Outlook Chair: Peter Pauly Presentations by: United Nations Ian Kinniburgh International Monetary Fund Torsten Slok Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Vincent Koen Oxford Economic Forecasts Vanessa Rossi' World Bank Hans Timmer The Outlook for the International Oil Market Are Forbord Global Financial Situation Ann Orr and Sergei Gorbunov 2.30 - 5.30 p.m. Outlook for the Developed Countries and Economies in Transition Chair: Anatoly Smyshlyaev United States Lawrence Klein and Suleyman Ozmucur Western Europe Clive Altshuier and Vincent Koen Japan Pingfan Hong Economies in Transition Grigor Agabekian and Dominika Halka Friday 30 November 10 a.m. - 1 p.m. Outlook for Developing Countries Chair: Ana Cortez Africa Patrick Asea, Charlotte du Toit, Are Forbord and Carl Gray Latin America Gunilla Ryd and Santiago Guerreiro 2.30 - 4.30 p.m. Outlook for Developing Countries (continued) West Asia Edouard Nsimba and Suleyman Ozmucur Southern and Eastern Asia Gay Cororaton and Dave Choi China Pingfan Hong List of Participants Patrick Asea United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Scholastica (Gay) D. Cororaton National Economic and Development Authority, Philippines Hans Timmer World Bank Lawerence Klein University of Pennsylvania Vincent Koen Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Suleyman Omucur University of Pennsylvania Peter Pauly University of Toronto Vanessa Rossi Oxford Economic Forecasting Gunilla Ryd United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Torsten Slok International Monetary Fund Charlotte du Toit University of Pretoria, South Africa Development Policy Analysis Division Grigor Agabekian Clive Altshuler David Choi Ana Cortez Are Forbord Sergei Gorbunov Santiago Guerreiro Carl Gray Dominika Halka Barry Herman Pingfan Hong Ian Kinniburgh Edouard Nsimba Ann Orr Anatoly Smyshlyaev Expert Group Meeting on Prospects for the World Economy United Nations Headquarters 29-30 November 2001 List of Documentation 1. Global Economic Situation and Prospects, Development Policy Analysis Division 2. Regional Developments and Outlook, Development Policy Analysis Division 3. The World Economy, extract from National Institute Economic Review (UK), October 2001. 4. Prospects for the Worm Economy, Powerpoint presentation by Ray Barrell and Nigel Pain. 5. The Forecast for Worm Oil Markets, Robert Kaufman 6. Excerpts from OECD Economic Outlook (December 2001) 7. The ECE economies in autumn 2001, extract from Economic Survey of Europe, December 2001 8. Challenges facing the ESCAP region, Statement by an eminent persons group, October 2001 9. Global Economy following the events of l l September, International Monetary Fund 10. Emerging Market Watch: November 2001, Oxford Economic Forecasting 11. Monthly Review -November 2001, Oxford Economic Forecasting Expert Group Meeting on Prospects for the World Economy United Nations Headquarters 29-30 November 2001 Place and time The meeting will take place in Conference Room DC2-2315 located on the 23rd floor of the DC2 Building (2 UN Plaza) which is adjacent to the Millennium Plaza Hotel on the north side of 44th Street between First and Second Avenues. A member of the Division will be in the lobby of the building (by the Security Desk on the left) from 9.30 a.m. on 29 November to provide participants with an Identification card to enter the building. Participants who arrive after 10.15 a.m. or who do not find anybody in the lobby should call either Ramachandra Kurup (3-8534), Ninon Thermidor (3-3261) or Conference Room DC2-2315 (3-0145). The meeting will be held from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. and from 2.30 p.m. to 5.30. p.m. Depending on the programme, it should be possible to finish early on 30 November. We shall have a break during each of the sessions. There will also be an informal "get-together" with light refreshments at the end of the session on Thursday afternoon. Presentations We should like to take advantage of the small size of the group to have as much discussion as possible. We therefore suggest that presentations be roughly 15 minutes. We expect to have facilities for both slides (transparencies) and Powerpoint presentations. Documentation A preliminary list of documentation is attached. Each of the items listed is being emailed to you in a separate message to avoid overburdening servers. The first two items (the reports by this Division) will be sent on Monday. In addition, participants may wish to log on to the Project LINK website (.www.chass.utoronto.ca/link/) to access additional material. 2002 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Spring Meeting April 24-26, 2002 United Nations Headquarters, New York Conference Room 3 Preliminary Agenda Wednesday, April 24 10:00 Opening Address Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations 10:30 Global Outlook -1:00 Chair : Lawrence Klein “United Nations Project LINK” Ian Kinniburgh , United Nations , New York “The International Monetary Fund” Torsten Sloek , IMF , Washington “The World Bank” Hans Timmer , The World Bank , Washington “The OECD” Pete Richardson, OECD , Paris “The National Institute of Economic and Social Research” Ray Barrell , NIESR , London 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30 Global Outlook (cont.) -3:30 Chair : Bert Hickman General Discussion 3:30 Current Policy Issues -4:30 Chair : Bert Hickman “Growth Poles and the Current Economic Cycle” Peter Pauly , University of Toronto General Discussion 4:30 Global Outlook (cont.) -5:30 Chair : Bert Hickman “Review of Commodity Markets” Robert Young , FAPRI , University of Missouri Robert Kaufmann , Boston University , Boston General Discussion Thursday, April 25 10:00 Regional Outlook : North America and Japan -1:00 Chair : Stephen Hall “The U.S. Outlook” Lawrence R. Klein , University of Pennsylvania , Philadelphia “The Month-by-Month Pattern of US Consumer Expenditures after September 2001" Lawrence R. Klein and Suleyman Ozmucur , University of Pennsylvania “The Japanese Outlook” Kanemi Ban , Osaka University General Discussion LINK National Representatives 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30- Regional Economic Outlook : Europe 4:30 Chair : Delia Nilles “Europe : Summary” Ray Barrell , NIESR , London General Discussion LINK National Representatives “Central and Eastern Europe, Russia : Summary” TBA General Discussion LINK National Representatives 4:30 Global Policy Issues -5:30 Chair : Peter Pauly “The Post-Doha World Trade Agenda” Debra Steger , WTO , Geneva Friday, April 26 10:00 Regional Outlook : Africa -12:00 Chair : Alexander Welfe “Methodologies for Developing Sustainability Indicators” Patrick Asea , ECA , Addis Abeba “Africa : Summary” TBA , United Nations , New York General Discussion LINK National Representatives 12:00- Global Policy Issues 1:00 Chair : N.N. “Preventing and Resolving Financial Crises “ Guillermo Calvo , University of Maryland and IADB (TBC) 1:00 Lunch Break -2:30 2:30 Regional Outlook : Latin America -4:00 Chair : N.N. “Latin America : Summary” Alfredo Calcagno , ECLAC , Santiago General Discussion LINK National Representatives 4:00 Regional Outlook : Asia -5:30 Chair : N.N. “Asia : Summary” Peter Pauly , University of Toronto “Estimates of the Economic Growth Rate of China 1980-2000" Lawrence R. Klein and Suleyman Ozmucur , University of Pennsylvania General Discussion LINK National Representatives Close of Meeting: 5:30 p.m. 2002 Bologna, Italy Project LINK Fall Meeting October 7-11, 2002 Università di Bologna Piazza S. Giovannni in Monte 2 , Aula Giorgio Prodi Bologna , Italy Agenda Outline Sunday, October 6 Welcome Reception Monday, October 7 Session I: World Economic Outlook Session II: World Economic Outlook (cont.) Session III: Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: North America Session IV: Global Economic Trends Tuesday, October 8 Session V: Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Europe and Japan Session VI: Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Africa, Asia, and Latin America Session VII : Developing Country Policy Issues I Session VIII: Developing Countries Policy Issues II Evening: Conference Dinner Wednesday, October 9 Excursion Thursday, October 10 Session IX: Monetary Issues in the European Union Session X: Structural Policy Issues in Europe Session XI: Lawrence R. Klein Lecture in Forecasting Session XII: Modeling Techniques I Friday, October 11 Session XIII: Productivity I Session XIV: Productivity II Session XV: Modeling Tecniques II Session XVI: Macroeconometric Models Agenda Sunday , October 6 20:30 Welcome Reception , Piazza S, Giovanni in Monte 2, Aula Giorgio Prodi Monday, October 7 9:30 Welcome Professor Pierugo Calzolari Rector , Università di Bologna 9:40-11:00 World Economic Outlook Chair: Bert Hickman “Project LINK World Outlook” Jozef van Brabant., United Nations, New York “The World Bank Global Economic Prospects” Hans Timmer , The World Bank, Washington “The OECD International Economic Outlook” Pete Richardson, OECD, Paris 11:00-11:15 Break 11:15-12:45 World Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair: Duncan Ironmonger “The NIESR International Economic Outlook” Ray Barrell, NIESR, London “The Determinants of World Oil Prices : Does OPEC Matter?” Robert Kaufmann , Boston University “Commodities ” Robert Kaufmann , Boston University F. Gerard Adams , Northeastern University 12:45-2:15 Lunch 2:15-3:45 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : North America Chair: Carlo D’Adda “The US Outlook” Lawrence R. Klein , University of Pennsylvania General Discussion 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Global Economic Trends Chair: Adolfo Castilla “An Indicator-Derived Primer on the Upcoming Quarters : Risks of Global Stagnation vs. Chances of Recovery” Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics , New York General Discussion Tuesday, October 8 9:30-11:00 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues: Europe and Japan Chair: Thomas Wilson “Europe: Summaries” Peter Pauly , University of Toronto Franjo Stiblar , University of Ljubljana “The Japanese Outlook” Kanemi Ban , Osaka University General Discussion 11:00-11:15 Break 11:15-12:45 Regional Outlook and Policy Issues : Africa, Asia, and Latin America Chair: Anna Stagni “Choosing the Rules – Fiscal and Monetary Frameworks in Europe” Ray Barrell , NIESR , London “Developing Countries: Summary” Peter Pauly , University of Toronto General Discussion 12:45-2:15 Lunch 2:15-3:45 Developing Country Policy Issues I Chair: Giorgio Basevi “Information Technology Trade and Asia-Pacific Interdependence” Byron Gangnes , Ari Van Assche, and Carl Bonham , University of Hawaii “East Asian Crisis and Contagion : The Case of India” Pami Dua , Delhi University “Markov Regime Switching Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia” Roberto Mariano, Augustine H.H. Tan, Celso Brunetti, Chiara Scotti , University of Pennsylvania and Singapore Management University 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Developing Country Policy Issues II Chair: Charlotte du Toit “The NAIRU, Unemployment, and the Rate of Inflation in Brazil” Elcyon Caiado Roche Lima , IPEA , Rio de Janeiro “Ghana : Aggregate Supply Growth Models and Policy Implications” Cletus Dordunoo , ClayDord Consult , Ghana Wednesday, October 9 Full – Day Excursion Thursday, October 10 9:30-11:00 Monetary Issues in the European Union Chair: Paolo Onofri “Saving and Investment in Euroland, the EU, and the Enlarged EU” Gianpaolo Rossini and Paolo Zangheri , Università di Bologna and CEPII, Paris “Exchange Rate Pass-through and Real Exchange Rate in EU Candidate Countries” Zsolt Darvas , Bank of Hungary , Budapest 11:0-11:15 Break 11:15-12:45 Structural Policy Issues in Europe Chair: Massimo Tivegna “The Role of Ownership in Consolidation of Banks: International Comparison” Franjo Stiblar , University of Ljubljana “The Pension Reform in Italy and Its Effects on the Propensity to Save” Paolo Onofri , Università di Boilogna 12:45-2:15 Lunch 2:15-3:45 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture in Forecasting Chair: Peter Pauly “Economic Forecasting : Some Lessons From Recent Research” David Hendry, Oxford University 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Modeling Techniques I Chair: Renzo Orsi “Rational Expectations and Near Rational Alternatives : How Best to Form Expectations” Steven Hall , Imperial College , London “Correcting Taylor Rules for Forecast Biases” Heinz Glück , Stefan P. Schleicher, and Rosaria Catena , University of Graz and Austrian National Bank , Vienna Friday, October 11 9:30-10:30 Productivity I Chair: Mette Rolland “ Total Factor Productivity Growth in the United States and Europe” Ignazio Visco , Banca d’Italia , Rome 10:30-10:45 Break 10:45-12:45 Productivity II Chair: Alexander Welfe “ Euro Area Production Function and Potential Output : A Supply Side System Approach” Alpo Willman , European Central Bank , Frankfurt “The Productivity Surge of the Nineties and Future Growth” Robert Coen and Bert G. Hickman , Northwestern University and Stanford University “Cross-Country Evidence on Banking Crisis, Growth, and Total Factor Productivity” Chin Hee Hahn , KDI , Seoul 12:45-2:15 Lunch 2:15-3:45 Modeling Techniques II Chair: Pingfan Hong “Real-Time GDP Forecasting in the Euro Area” Alberto Baffigi , Roberto Golinelli , and Guiseppe Parigi , University of Bologna “The Impact of Information and Communication Technology Capital on Labor Productivity : a Complete Macroeconomic Framework” Cédric Audenis, Julien Deroyon, and Nathalie Fourcade , INSEE , Paris 3:45-4:00 Break 4:00-5:30 Macroeconometric Models Chair: Muthi Samudram “China Entering WTO : Interpreting the Issues Using the Chinese Annual Model” Jean-Louis Brillet and Liu Xiaoyue , INSEE , Paris and National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing “The MICMAC Model for Sweden” M.K. Andersson, Johan Lindén, P. Lundvik , NIER , Stockholm “Growth Determinants of Economic Potential” Wladyslaw Welfe , University of Lodz 5:30 Meeting Close 2003 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Spring Meeting April 23-25, 2003 United Nations Headquarters, New York Conference Room 4 Agenda Wednesday 23 April 10:00-10:15 Opening Chair : Lawrence Klein United Nations , New York 10:15-1:00 Global Outlook Chair : Lawrence Klein United Nations Project LINK Ian Kinniburgh, United Nations , New York International Monetary Fund James Morsink, IMF , Washington World Bank Hans Timmer, The World Bank , Washington OECD Pete Richardson, OECD, Paris National Institute of Economic and Social Research Ray Barrell, NIESR, London General Discussion 1:00-2:30 Lunch 2:30-3:30 Global Outlook (cont.) Chair : Bert Hickman Non-Oil Commodities F. Gerard Adams, Northeastern University, Boston The World Oil Market Robert Kaufmann , Boston University General Discussion 3:30-4:30 Current Policy Issues I Chair : Bert Hickman Global Consequences of the War in Iraq Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute, Washington General Discussion 4:30-5:30 Regional Economic Outlook Chair : Bert Hickman United States Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania General Discussion 6:00-7:30 Reception E-Press Bar, Secretariat Building Thursday 24 April 10:00-12:00 Regional Economic Outlook Chair : Delia Nilles West Asia Nazem Abdalle, UNESCWA Western Europe André Dramais, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels Eastern Europe and the CIS Rumen Dobrinsky, ECE , Geneva Two Europes Merging Franjo Stiblar, University of Ljubljana General Discussion 12:00-1:00 Current Policy Issues II Chair : Delia Nilles Roundtable Discussion : Fiscal Policy in Europe – The Stability Pact Adolfo Castilla, Autonomous University, Madrid André Dramais, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels Stephen Hall , Imperial College, London Ulrich Heilemann , RWI, Essen General Discussion 1:00-2:30 Lunch 2:30-3:30 Current Policy Issues III Chair : Stephen Hall Trade and Production in the Global Economy Dan Trefler, University of Toronto, CIAR and NBER, Boston General Discussion 3:30-5:00 Regional Economic Outlook Chair : Stephen Hall Empirical Regularities in the Russian Economy Vladimir Eskin and Andrei Roudoi, Global Insight, Boston Japan Kanemi Ban, Osaka University China. Wang Tongsan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing General Discussion 5:00-5.30 Current Policy Issues I Chair : Stephen Hall Global Disequilibria in Perspective Peter Pauly, University of Toronto General Discussion Friday 25 April 10:00-12:00 Regional Economic Outlook Chair : Sam Olofin Asia David Choi, United Nations, New York Latin America André Hofman, ECLAC, Santiago 12:00-1:00 Current Policy Issues IV Chair : Sam Olofin Fiscal Sustainability in Developing Countries: Recent Experience Ernesto Talvi, CERES, Montevideo 1:00-2:30 Lunch 2:30-4:30 Regional Outlook Chair : Peter Pauly Africa Adam Smith, United nations, New York Middle East Suleyman Ozmucur, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia General Discussion 4:30-5:00 LINK Business Meeting Chair : Peter Pauly Expert Group Meeting on Global Economic Outlook 20-21 November 2003 United Nations Headquarters, New York DC2 Building, 23rd Floor Conference Room Provisional Agenda (as of 7 November 2003) Thursdav 20 November 9.45Coffee 10:00-10:15 Opening Jose Antonio Ocampo, Under-Secretary-General Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations 10:15-11:45 Global Outlook Global overview of LINK projections United Nations Project LINK OECD Outlook Pete Richardson, OECD, NIESR Outlook Ray Barrell, NIESR, The World Oil Market Robert Kaufmann , Boston University General discussion 11:45-1.15 Global policy concerns Global imbalances Timothy Callen, IMF Implications of global adjustment for developing countries Hans Timmer, World Bank General Discussion 1:15-2:30 Lunch 2:30-4.00 Exchange rate realignment scenarios and issues Ray Barrell Stephen Hall Pete Richardson 4.00-6.00 National and Regional Perspectives United States Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania Japan (tele-conference) Yoshihisa Inawa Asia Raj Kumar, ESCAP, Bangkok Krishnamurty Sundaram 6.00-7.30 Reception DC2 Building, 19th Floor Conference Room Friday 21 November National and Regional Perspectives (cont'd) 10.00-1.00 China Baoliang Zhu Africa Patrick Asea, ECA , Addis Ababa Charlotte du Toit Cletus Dordunoo Middle East ESCWA, Beirut Latin America Andrÿ Hofman, ECLAC, Santiago Estaquio Reis 1:00-2:30 Lunch Friday 21 November (cont'd) 2:30-4:30 National and Regional Perspectives (cont'd) Western Europe Heiner Flassbach, UNCTAD, Geneva Roland Dorn Eastern Europe Abdur Chowdhury, ECE , Geneva CIS Mstislav Afanasiev 4:30-5:30 Summary discussion of conclusions and key global policy concerns Lead discussant: Peter Pauly 2004 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Spring Meeting 14-16 April 2004, Conference Room 2, United Nations Headquarters, New York Agenda Wednesday 14 April Morning Session Chair: Lawrence Klein 10:00-10:15 Opening United Nations, New York 10:15-1:00 Global Outlook (I) United Nations Project LINK Ian Kinniburgh, United Nations, New York International Monetary Fund Tim Callen, IMF, Washington National Institute of Economic and Social Research Ray Barrell, NIESR, London General Discussion 1:00-2:30 Lunch Afternoon Session Chair: Peter Pauly 2:30-3:30 Global Outlook (II) The World Oil Market Robert Kaufmann, Boston University, Boston Non-oil commodity markets F. Gerard Adams, Northeastern University, Boston Patrick Westhoff, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia General Discussion 3:30-4:30 Regional Economic Outlook: Japan, Australia and New Zealand Country participants 4:30-5:30 Current Policy Issues I: The Economic Future of Europe Olivier Blanchard, MIT, Cambridge, MA General Discussion 5:45-7:30 Reception Ex-Press bar, 3rd floor (via elevator or escalator) Thursday 15 April Morning Session Chair: Stephen Hall 10:00-11:00 Regional Economic Outlook: North America Lawrence Klein, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Country Participants 11:00-12:00 Current Policy Issues II: The Role of China in the Global Economy Yongzheng Yang, IMF, Washington Roundtable discussion: Pami Dua, University of Delhi, Delhi Win-Lin Chou, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Roberto Mariano, Singapore Management University, Singapore Tongsan Wang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 12:00-12:30 Global Outlook (III) World Bank Hans Timmer, World Bank, Washington 12:30-1:00 Regional Economic Outlook: South and East Asia Hiren Sarkar, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok Country Participants 1:00-2:30 Lunch Afternoon Session Chair: Reneé Koekemoer 2:30-4:00 Current Policy Issues III: Stability and Growth in Europe: Implications of the EU Enlargement (a) Stability and Growth in the Accession Countries Laszlo Halpern, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (b) The Implications of EU Enlargement for the Non-Accession Transition Countries Rumen Dobrinsky, Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva General Discussion 4:00-5:30 Regional Economic Outlook: Europe and CIS André Dramais, European Commission, Brussels Rumen Dobrinsky, Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva Country Participants Friday 16 April Morning Session Chair: Roberto Mariano 10:00-11:00 Regional Economic Outlook: Africa Shamika N. Sirimanne, Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa Country Participants Impact of dollar depreciation on developing countries: the South African case Walter de Wet, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 11:00-12:00 Current Policy Issues IV: Perspectives on International Trade for Africa Unlocking Africa's Trade Potential Shamika N. Sirimanne, Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa General Discussion 12:00-1:00 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East Edouard Nsimba, United Nations, New York Suleyman Ozumucur, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Yacov Sheinin, Economic Modeling Ltd, Ramat-Gan Country Participants 1:00-2:30 Lunch Afternoon Session Chair: Bert Hickman 2:30-4:00 Current Policy Issues V: Trade and exchange rate issues for Latin America (a) Free Trade Areas: Building Blocks or Stumbling Blocks for the World Trading System? Dominick Salvatore, Fordham University, New York (b) NAFTA ten years after: a Mexican perspective Alfredo Coutiño, Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico, Philadelphia (c) Exchange rate regimes and their consequences for trade and growth in Latin America Alfredo Calcagno, UNCTAD, Geneva General Discussion 4:00-5:00 Regional Economic Outlook: Latin America André Hofman, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago Country Participants The Dynamics of Inflation in Latin America Sandra Manuelito, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago 5:00 LINK Business Meeting Project LINK Fall Meeting November 22-24, 2004 United Nations Headquarters, New York Draft Agenda Monday November 22 10:00-10:15 Opening 10:15-1:00 Global Outlook Presentations : UN/IMF/WB/OECD et al. General Discussion 2:30-3:300 Global Outlook Commodity Markets General Discussion 3:30-5:30 Current Policy Issues (1): Global Implications of the World Oil Market (Invited speakers) General Discussion Tuesday November 23 10:00-11:30 Regional Economic Outlook United States 11:30-1:00 Regional Economic Outlook Europe 2:30-4:00 Regional Economic Outlook Japan and China 4:00-5:30 Current Policy Issues (2): Policy Options in Industrial Countries (Invited speakers) General Discussion Wednesday November 22 10:00-11:30 Regional Economic Outlook Africa Latin America 11:30-1:00 Regional Economic Outlook East and South East Asia Middle East 2:30-4:00 Current Policy Issues (3) : Trade Issues (TBA) (Invited Speaker) General Discussion 4:00 LINK Business Meeting 2 2004 Fall Meeting Travel Arrangements and Reimbursement Guidelines for LINK-supported Participants With prior approval, Project LINK can provide limited financial support to selected participants from national centres. As a rule, no support can be given to participants from central banks, government agencies, and international organizations. Please specify your request for support with your registration. Your approved level of support will be clearly stated in your confirmation letter. No support will be available without prior approval. Participants who decide not to observe these rules will be expected to cover the incremental expenses themselves. All exceptions to these general rules will have to be cleared with our office before the meeting. For clarification of these guidelines and reimbursement procedures, please do not hesitate to contact our Toronto office. Travel (i) LINK will provide partial or full travel support for a maximum of one participant from each national centre ; (ii) All air tickets will be organized and prepaid by Project LINK travel agent. **For further information refer to page 3 of this announcement ** Hotel (iii) Hotel expenses in New York will be charged directly to a master account. Please observe that (a) LINK will cover your hotel room (room charges only) for up to four nights. (b) You will be responsible for all other hotel charges (meals, telephone, or other incidentals). (c) LINK will support your documented meal expenses for up to five days (up to a limit of $50 per day). Cash per diems will be available upon advance request. (d) Participants who intend to extend their stay at the Crowne Plaza should contact us to clarify the billing procedure. All expenses will be reimbursed through the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) after the meeting. Vouchers will be available during the meeting, and should be returned to Erin Bell in our Toronto office. All claims must be documented by original receipts (incl. airline ticket stubs). If you wish to deviate from these arrangements you will be expected to cover the incremental expenses. All special arrangements must be cleared with our office before the meeting. For clarifications and inquiries about organization and reimbursement procedures, please do not hesitate to contact our Toronto office. 3 2005 Mexico City, Mexico Project LINK International Meeting [Conference Web Site : http://buho.unam.mx/link2005/english/welcome.htm] May 16-20, 2005 Mexico City, DF, Mexico hosted by Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Mexico City, Mexico Program Committee Co-Chairs: Roberto I. Escalante Semerena , UNAM Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Members: Ernesto Acevedo Fernandez, UNAM Adolfo Castilla, Universidad Alfonso X el Sabio, Madrid Luis Miguel Galindo, UNAM Stephen G. Hall, Imperial College, London Bert G. Hickman, Stanford University, Stanford Ian Kinniburgh, DESA, United Nations, New York Lawrence R. Klein Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Juan Carlos Moreno Brid, CEPAL, Mexico City Pedro Palma, Metroeconomica, Caracas Hans Timmer , The World Bank Local Organization Ernesto Acevedo Fernandez, UNAM Luis Miguel Galindo P.; UNAM Roberto I. Escalante Semerena, UNAM Meeting Preparation Erin Bell University of Toronto Armando Sanchez UNAM Agenda Outline Sunday, May 15, 2005 Evening: Welcome Reception Monday, May 16, 2005 Session I: World Economic Outlook Session II: World Economic Outlook (cont.) Session III: Invited Lecture Session IV: Global Economic Imbalances Tuesday, May 17, 2005 Session V: Regional Outlook: Europe Session VI: Mexico and Latin America Session VII: Regional Outlook: North America and Developed East Session VIII: Regional Outlook: Asia and Africa Wednesday, May 18, 2005 Excursion to Archeological Site: Xochicalco, Morelos Thursday, May 19, 2005 Session IX: Developing Countries in the Global Trade System: Economic Growth, Trade, Financial System, and Macroeconomic Balances Session X: International Economic Issues Session XI: Lawrence R. Klein Lecture Session XII: Applied Economics: Mexico Evening: Dinner Friday, May 20, 2005 Session XIII: Remittances, Trade and Economic Development Session XIV: Modeling Techniques Session XV: Invited Lecture Session XVI: Applied Macroeconomic Issues Agenda Monday, May 16 9:30-10:00 Welcome Opening Remarks Peter Pauly Luis Miguel Galindo Roberto Escalante Rosaura Ruiz (Vice-Chancellor representative) 10:00-11:30 World Economic Outlook Chair: Bert Hickman “Project LINK World Outlook” Ian Kinniburgh., United Nations, New York “The World Bank Global Economic Prospects” Hans Timmer , The World Bank, Washington “The IMF International Economic Outlook” Thomas Helbling , International Monetary Fund, Washington 11:30-12:00 Break 12:00-1:30 World Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair: Luis Miguel Galindo “The NIESR International Economic Outlook” Ray Barrell, NIESR, London “The Economic and Political Determinants of OPEC Oil Production” Robert Kaufmann, Boston University, Boston “Common Biases in IMF and OECD Forecasts: Who Dares To Be Different?” Heinz Glueck and Stefan Schleicher, Austrian National bank and University of Graz 1:30-3:30 Lunch 3:30-4:30 Invited Lecture Chair: Roberto Escalante “Latin American Economic Liberalization in Retrospect” José Antonio Ocampo , Under-Secretary General, United Nations, New York Page 3 4:30-5:00 Break 5:00-7:00 Global Economic Imbalances Chair: Julio Andujar “Dollars and Deficits – the US Current Account Deficit and its Exchange Rate Consequences” Ali Al-Eyd, Ray Barrell and Olga Pomerantz, NIESR, London “Global Imbalances” Thomas Helbling, IMF, Washington “Global Macroeconomic Imbalance and the International Reserve System” Pingfan Hong, United Nations, New York General Discussion LINK National Participants Tuesday, May 17 10:00-11:30 Regional Outlook: Europe Chair: Martin Puchet “Europe: Summary” Peter Pauly, University of Toronto, Toronto “Modelling Inflation in the Euro Area” Eilev Jansen, Bank of Norway, Oslo “Inflation Dynamics In the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations: Further Results” Maritta Paloviita, Bank of Finland, Helsinki 11:30-12:00 Break 12:00-1:30 Regional Outlook: Mexico and Latin America Chair: Juan Carlos Moreno “Latin America: Summary” Francisco Villareal, CEPAL, Santiago “Reconstruir el futuro. Globalización, desarrollo y democracia en América Latina” (book presentation) José Antonio Ocampo, Under-Secretary General, United Nations, New York Panel Discussion Rolando Cordera, Rebeca Grynspan and Luis Miguel Galindo Page 4 1:30-3:30 Lunch 3:30-4:30 Regional Outlook: North America and Developed East Chair: Carlos Tello “United States: Summary” Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia “Japan: Summary” Kanemi Ban, Osaka University, Osaka General Discussion LINK National Representatives 4:30-5:00 Break 5:00-7:00 Regional Outlook: Asia and Africa Chair: Jorge Basabe “Asia: Summary” J. Malcolm Dowling, Singapore Management University, Singapore “Africa: Summary” Oumar Diallo, United Nations, New York “Alternative Measures of Potential GDP and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries” Hubert Scaith, CEPAL Wednesday, May 18 Full – Day Excursion to Xochicalco, Morelos Thursday, May 19 10:00-11:30 Developing Countries in the Global Trade System : Economic Growth, Trade, Financial System and Macroeconomic Balances Chair: Luis Aquino “Recent Evolution of Mexico’s Financial System” Pascual O’Dogherty, Banco de Mexico “The Treasury and the Globalization: the Case of Mexico ” David Colemenares, Secretaria de Hacienda, Mexico “Economic Relationships Among the NAFTA Region: What Is Next” Hugo Contreras, UNAM – CEMPE Page 5 11:30-12:00 Break 12:00-1:30 International Economic Issues Chair: Julio Lopez “Does High Debt Cause a Loss in Growth Performance in Catching-Up Economies” Peter Benczur, Andras Simon and Victor Varpalotai, Bank of Hungary, Budapest “Spectral Analysis of International Transmission of Business Cycles” Pami Dua and Vineet Sharma, Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi “The Effect of New Asian Regional Trade Groupings on the Doha Round Negotiations” Oh-Seok Hyun, Trade Research Institute of Korea, Seoul 1:30-3:30 Lunch 3:30-4:30 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture Chair: Hugo Contreras “Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: A Half-Century of Direct Evidence” Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania 4:30-5:00 Break 5:00-7:00 Applied Economics : Mexico Chair: Lilia Dominguez “Mexico´s Potential GNP” Ernesto Acevedo, UNAM “Labor Market Integration in North America” Clemente Ruiz, Facultad de Economía, UNAM “A Quarterly Macroeconometric Model of Mexico” Eduardo Loria, UNAM Friday, May 20 10:00-11:30 Remittances, Trade and Economic Development Chair: Leonardo Lomeli “Remittances and Development” Hans Timmer , World Bank, Washington “Remittances in Colombia: Transaction Costs and Exchange Rates” Ximena Cadena O. and Mauricio Cardenas S., Fedesarrollo, Bogota Page 6 “Can Special Trade Measures Help Development When Trade Tools Are Weak and the Conditions for Development Are Uncertain” Sheila Page, Overseas Development Institute, London 11:30-12:00 Break 12:00-1:30 Modeling Techniques Chair: Thomas Wilson “A Long-Run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy” Josef Baumgartner, Helmut Hofer, Serguei Kaniovski, Ulrich Schuh and Thomas Url, Institute for Advanced Studies and WIFO, Vienna “Econometric Modeling at Mixed Frequencies” Lawrence R. Klein and Fyodor Kushnirsky, University of Pennsylvania and Temple University, Philadelphia “The Accession of China to WTO: Consequences for the Regional Gap” Jean-Louis Brillet, Muriel Jacubowicz, Chloe Mayer, Julia Schultz, and Liu Xiaoyue, INSEE, Paris, ENSAE, Paris, and CASS, Beijing 1:30-3:30 Lunch 3:30-4:30 Invited Lecture Chair: Jan van Heerden “Density Forecasts” Stephen Hall , Imperial College, London 4:30-5:00 Break 5:00-7:00 Applied Macroeconomic Issues Chair: Peter Pauly “The University of Pennsylvania Models for High-Frequency Macroeconomic Modeling” Lawrence R. Klein and Suleyman Ozmucur , University of Pennsylvania “Montenegro Quarterly Macroeconomic Econometric Model” Franjo Stiblar and Zan Oplotnik, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana “The Accession of China to WTO: Consequences for the Regional Gap” Jean-Louis Brillet, Muriel Jacubowicz, Chloe Mayer, Julia Schultz, and Liu Xiaoyue, INSEE, Paris, ENSAE, Paris, and CASS, Beijing Page 7 2005 Geneva, Switzerland Annex - 2 LINK Spring Meeting 31 October-2 November 2005 GENEVA LIST OF COUNTRY REPORTS NO. NAME OF THE COUNTRY AUTHOR 1 Costa Rica Juan-Rafael Vargas 2 Italy Carlo D'Adda 3 Colombia Carolina Mantilla & Carlos Patino 4 Nepal D.R. Khanal 5 Angola Suzana Camacho 6 Venezuela Cristina Rodriguez 7 Turkey Suleyman Ozmucur 8 Togo Kodjo Elvo 9 Slovak Republic J. Haluska & M. Olexa 10 Bulgaria Garabed Minassian 11 Malaysia Muthi Samudram 12 Hong Kong Chou Win Lin 13 Slovenia F. Stiblar & Joe Mencinger 14 Croatia Andrea Mervar 15 Japan Kanemi Ban 16 Mexico Alfredo Coutino 17 Korea Dongchul Cho 18 Ukraine V. Heyets & M. Skrypnychenko 19 Hungary Andras Simon 20 Norway T. Eika & M. Rolland 21 Australia Peter Brain 22 Austria Ulrich Schuh 23 Ghana C.K. Dordunoo & E. Richard 24 Taiwan Chung-Shu Wu 25 China Zhang Yaxiong 26 Philippines Dennis Arroyo 27 Mexico Eduardo Loria 28 Czech Republic Jan Hosek & Milan Klima 29 Germany R. Dohrn & G. Barabas 30 Argentina Arturo O'Connell 31 Switzerland Delia Nilles 31 Bangladesh Salahuddin Ahmad 29 Belgium Simon Erlich 24 Greece Stella Belfoussias 25 Iran Bijan Bidabad 9 Ireland D. Addison-Smyth 5 New Zealand Jane Turner 26 Poland Wladyslaw Welfe 30 Singapore Toh Mun-Heng 32 South Africa Charlotte du Toit 10 35 Taiwan Chung-Shu Wu 27 Vietnam Tran Kim Chung 2006 Geneva, Switzerland 2006 Project LINK Fall Meeting October 30-November 1, 2006 United Nations, Geneva Agenda Monday October 30 10:00 -10:15 Opening Address Chair : Lawrence Klein Dirk Jan Bruinsma, Deputy Secretary General, UNCTAD 10:15 – 13:00 Global Economic Outlook Chair: Heiner Flassbeck Presentations: a. LINK/UN-DESA (Rob Vos) b. IMF (Thomas Helbling) c. World Bank (Hans Timmer) Leading discussants: Peter Richardson (OECD, Paris) Dawn Holland ( NIESR, London) 13:00 – 14:00 Lunch 13:25 – 13:55 Special session: Introduction of a new modeling framework for the world economy – prospective cooperation between the World Bank and the UN/LINK Speaker: Hans Timmer (World Bank) 14:00 – 17:30 Global and regional issues (1) Chair: Bert Hickman Panel discussion one: Global adjustment and employment growth Speakers: Lawrence Jeff Johnson and Christoph Ernst (ILO) Panel discussion of inflation and employment trade-offs: United States: Lawrence Klein (LINK) 1 Germany: Torsten Schmidt (RWI) Asia: Pami Dua (Delhi University) Contributions from the floor on inflationary trends and policy implications: selected European participants Tuesday October 31 9:30 – 13:00 Global and regional issues (2) Chair: Byron Gangnes Panel discussion two: The world oil market and prospects for oil price developments Lead presentation: Robert Kaufmann (Boston University) Panel discussion with regional perspectives regarding the impact of higher oil prices on low-income countries: participants from ECA, ESCAP and ECLAC Panel discussion three: Management of foreign reserves and exchange rate policy in developing countries Lead presentation: Ramon Moreno (BIS) Panel discussion with regional perspectives: Latin America: Eustaquio Reis ( IPEA), Arturo O’Connell (Central Bank of Argentina) Asia: Dongchul Cho (KDI), Tongsan Wang (CASS) 13:00 – 14:00 Lunch 13:25 – 13:55 Special session: An Area-wide Real Time Database for the euro-area Speaker: Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank) 14:00 – 17:30 Current Issues in Modeling Global Linkages and International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination Chair: Roberto Mariano Modeling the Adjustment of Global Imbalances: the IMF experience Speaker: Selim Elekdag (IMF) 2 The World Bank LINKAGE model: adjusting trade balances in a CGE framework Speaker: Hans Timmer and Dominique van de Mensbrugghe (World Bank) Policy Coordination and the Oxford World Macroeconomic Model Speaker: John Walker (Oxford Economic Forecasting) Discussants: Peter Pauly (University of Toronto), Rob Vos (UN-DESA) Wednesday, November 1 9:30 – 13:00 Global modeling issues (2) Chair: Thomas Wilson Adjusting Trade Imbalances and Unsustainable Net Foreign Asset Positions in the Cambridge-Alphametrics Model of the World Economy Speakers: Francis Cripps (Alphametrics Ltd.) and Alex Izurieta (Cambridge University) Macroeconomic Policy Coordination and the NIESR model Speaker: Ray Barrell (NIESR, London) International Policy Coordination Speaker: Steve Hall (University of Leicester) Towards a New OECD Global Model: Strategy and Developments Speaker: Peter Richardson (OECD) Discussants: Hans Timmer (World Bank); Pingfan Hong (UN-DESA) 13:00 – 14:00 Lunch 13:25 – 13:55 Special session: Software Applications for Econometric Forecasting. Special Case – Current Quarter Model for China Speaker: Vladimir Erskin (PROGNOZ) 14:00 – 16:00 Global modeling issues (3) Chair: Peter Pauly 3 Critical review of global models and quantitative analysis of policy coordination: Summing up of conference and current issues and prospects for global models Speakers: Ken Wallis (Warwick University); Lawrence Klein (LINK) 16:00-17:00 Business meeting and closing session Chair: Peter Pauly 4 2007 Beijing, China Project LINK Spring Meeting 2007 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Jianguo Garden Hotel, Beijing May 14-17, 2007 Monday, May 14, 2007 (Jianguo Garden Hotel) 9:00-9:15 Opening Ceremony Chair: Pingfan Hong Wang Changsheng, Director, State Information Center Peter Pauly, University of Toronto 9:15-10:00 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture: Chair: Pingfan Hong Evaluation of Global Econometric Models Clive Granger, University of California at San Diego 10:00-10:15 Tea break 10:15-12:15 World Economic Outlook Chair: Bert Hickman UN/LINK Global Economic Outlook Robert Vos, United Nations, New York IMF Global Outlook Timothy Callen, IMF, Washington Comments on the Global Outlook: Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics, New York Yu Yongding, Director, Institute of World Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing General Discussion 1 12:15 – 1:15 Lunch 1:15 Transportation to Great Hall of the People 14:30-17:30 (Great Hall of the People) Joint CASS Forum and Project LINK Session Chair: Wang Tongsan Opening Address Leng Rong, Executive Vice-President, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences From High-speed Growth to Harmonious Development – Review and Prospect for China’s Economy Chen Jiagui, Vice-President, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences A Comparison of Economic Growth Between China and India Clive Granger, University of California at San Diego Economic Growth in China and Its Sustainability Laurence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania [video] China’s Economic Situation Xie Fuzhan, Commissioner, National Bureau of Statistics of China Global Economic Imbalances Re-Examined Peter Pauly, University of Toronto International Policy Coordination for the Adjustment of Global Imbalances Robert Vos and Pingfan Hong, United Nations, New York Evening: Banquet hosted by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Jianguo Garden Hotel, 2nd Floor , 6:30 pm 2 Tuesday, May 15, 2007 (Jianguo Garden Hotel) 9:00 – 10:30 Global Imbalances and China’s Role in the International Financial System Chair: Duncan Ironmonger Bank Reform in China: What It Means for the World Donald Brean, University of Toronto Two Basic Strategies to Cope With the Problem of Excess Liquidity Li Yang, Director, Institute of Finance and Banking, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing General Discussion 10:30 – 10:45 Tea break 10:45-12:30 The Global Trading System Chair: Delia Nilles Import Growth and the Impact of Globalization Ray Barrell, Iana Lindze, and Olga Pomerantz, NIESR, London The E7 in International Trade: Dynamism and Cooperation Sudip Ranjan Basu, UNCTAD, Geneva The Historic Mission of the WTO and Responsibilities of China Pei Changhong, Director, Institute of Finance and Trade, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 12:45 – 13:45 Lunch 3 14:00 - 15:30 World Economic Outlook and Regional Perspectives Chair: Carlo D’Adda Industrial Countries Overview Ray Barrell, NIESR, London Country Presentation: US : Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania (video) World Commodity Markets: Prospects and Risks F. Gerard Adams, Northeastern University, Boston Willy Meyers, University of Missouri-Columbia Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Perspectives from National Participants 15:30 – 15:45 Tea break 16:00 – 17:30 Macroeconomic Modeling for Policy Analysis Chair: Thomas Wilson Financial Crisis, Effective Policy Rules and Bounded Rationality in a New Keynesian Framework Ali Al-Eyd and Stephen Hall, University of Leicester Credit Market Imperfections and the Power of the Financial Accelerator Marco Cavalcanti, IPEA, Rio de Janeiro The NOK/Euro Exchange Rate After Inflation Targeting: The Interest Rate Rules R. Bjørnstadt and E. Jansen, Statistics Norway, Oslo Evening: Banquet hosted by the National Bureau of Statistics Beijing International Hotel, 6:30 pm 4 Wednesday, May 16, 2007 (Jianguo Garden Hotel) 9:00 – 10:30 Global Economic Issues: Emerging Markets Chair: Jan van Heerden World Bank Emerging Markets Overview Hans Timmer , World Bank, Washington Panel Discussion on Emerging Market Outlook Keiji Inoue, United Nations, New York, Kenneth Ruffing, OECD/ADB, Paris Léonce Ndikumana, UNECA, Addis Ababa Cornelia Kaldewei, United Nations, New York Perspectives from National Participants 10:30 – 10:45 Tea break 10:45 – 12:30 Global Growth and Environmental Issues Chair: Mette Rolland Growth Determinants Analysis: A Combination of Traditional and Bayesian Approach Andre Dramais, Commission of the EC Convergence or Divergence in the Information Era Ji Chou and Tsui-Chuan Huang, Shi Hsin University The Market for Biofuels Willy Meyers, University of Missouri-Columbia Valuing Ecosystem Services: A Shadow Price for Net Primary Production Amy Richmond ,Robert Kaufmann, and Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University 12:45 – 13:45 Lunch 14:00 – 15:30 Applied Economic Issues Chair: Adolfo Castilla Capital Flow Volatility and Exchange Rates: the Case of India 5 Pami Dua and Partha Sen, Delhi School of Economics A New Structural Model of the Global Oil Market S. Dees, A. Gasteuil, P. Karadeloglou, and R. Kaufmann, European Central Bank, Frankfurt and Boston University Openness and Reforms in the CIS and China: Empirical Results from Gravity Models Malinka Koparanova and Hung-Yi Li, United Nations, New York 15:30 – 15:45 Tea break 15:45 – 17:15 Contributed Papers on Modeling Issues Chair: Alexander Welfe Real-time Data Based on OECD and IMF Projections Heinz Glueck and Stephan Schleicher, Austrian National Bank and University of Graz Time-Varying Lag Operators: Theory and Application to Measure Business Cycle Synchronization Among EU Members Viktor Varpalotai, Bank of Hungary, Budapest Current Quarter Model for Turkey Suleyman Ozmucur, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 17:15 – 17:30 Closing Session Evening: Banquet hosted by the Ford Foundation and the Chinese Association of Quantitative Economics Please gather in the lobby of the Jianguo Garden Hotel at 6:00pm to be bussed to location. Thursday, May 17, 2007 Full day excursion to the Great Wall Evening: Banquet hosted by the State Information Center Labour Culture Palace, please gather in the lobby of the Jianguo Garden Hotel at 6:00pm to be bussed. 6 2007 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Project LINK Fall Meeting 2007 Hosted by UN Economic Commission for Africa Addis Ababa November 12-14, 2007 Monday, November 12, 2007 9:30 – 9:45 Opening and welcome (ECA Executive Secretary) (Rob Vos, DESA) (Peter Pauly, University of Toronto) 9:45–11:15 World Economic Outlook Chair: Hakim Ben Hammouda, ECA LINK/UN DESA forecast (Rob Vos) World Bank (Hans Timmer) 11:15–11:30 Coffee/tea break 11:30–13:00 World Economic Outlook (continued) Lead discussants: Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Leonce Ndikumana, ECA and University of Massachusetts, Amherst General Discussion 13:00 – 14:00 Lunch 14:30 – 16:00 World Economic Outlook (continued) Chair: Adolfo Castilla*, Universidad Antonio de Nebrija World Commodity Markets: Prospects and Risks Robert Kaufmann, Boston University [Video] Recent trends in terms of trade for developing countries (Alfredo Calcagno, UNCTAD) Lead discussant: Hans Timmer, World Bank General discussion 16:00–16:15 Coffee/tea break 16:15- 17:45 Regional outlook: developed economies * To be confirmed. 1 Chair: Stephen Hall, University of Leicester United States (Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA) Japan (Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA) Western Europe (Ray Barrell, NIESR, UK) Tuesday, November 13, 2007 9:30- 12:30 Regional outlook: economies in transition, new EU members, and developing countries/regions Chair: Tarik Alami, ESCWA Economies in Transition and new EU members (Malinka Kaparanova, UN-DESA) Africa (Adam Elhiraika, ECA) East and South Asia (Shamika Sirimane, ESCAP) West Asia (Tarik Alami, ESCWA) Latin America and the Caribbean (Andre Hoffman, ECLAC) Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts (10:30–10:45 Coffee/tea break) 12:30–13:30 Lunch 13:30–16:30 Special session on African economies (I): Trade, Regional Integration, and South- South Cooperation Chair: Jan van Heerden Openness and Trade Liberalization in Africa (Alemayehu Geda, ECA and Addis Ababa University) EPAs and African Countries: Issues and Concerns (Mustapha Sadni-Jallab, ECA) Lessons from Europe for plans for African Monetary Union(s) (Ray Barrell, NIESR, UK) Discussants: Cletus Dordunoo, ClayDord Consult Jean-Louis Brillet, INSEE Alex Izurieta, UN-DESA (15:00–15:15 Coffee/tea break) 2 Wednesday, November 14, 2007 9:30 – 12:30 Special session on African economies (II): Resource Flows Chair: Ken Ruffing, OECD Development Financing in Africa, commitments and actions: assessment from an African perspective (Kavazeua Katjomuise, ECA) Capital Flight from African countries: linkages with external borrowing and policy options (Léonce Ndikumana, ECA and University of Massachusetts, Amherst) Understanding Africa's Quest for Diversification (Sudip Basu, UNCTAD) Commodity price trends and prospects and FDI in extractive industries (Olle Ostensson, UNCTAD) Discussants: Oumar Diallo, UN-DESA Kodjo Evlo, Université de Lomé Marva Corley, UN-DESA Susanna Wolf, ECA (11:15–11:30 Coffee/tea break) 12:30–13:30 Lunch 13:30–16:30 Macroeconomic modelling experiences in developing countries Chair: Mette Rolland† DIVA, A CGE Model for the study of African Diversification and MDGs Assessment. (Bchir Mohamed-Hedi, ECA) A Macroeconomic Model for Malawi (Elsie Katsonga-Phiri, Abel Nyoni and Chipo Msowoya, Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, Malawi) Presentation of the Consumption Block of the Quaterly Model for Turkey (Mesut Saygili and Zahid Samancioglu) † To be confirmed. 3 Discussants: Rob Vos, UN-DESA Malinka Koparanova, UN-DESA Pingfan Hong UN-DESA 16:30–16:45 Coffee/tea break 16:45-17:15 Business meeting and closing session (Peter Pauly, University of Toronto) (Rob Vos, UN-DESA) (Hakim Ben Hammouda, UN-ECA) 4 2008 New York, NY, USA Project LINK Fall Meeting 2008 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs New York October 23-24, 2008 Venue: The New York Helmsley Hotel, Knickerbocker Suite “D”, 3rd Floor Thursday, October 23, 2008 9:30 – 9:45 Opening and welcome (DESA and Project LINK) 9:45–11:15 World Economic Outlook Chair: Lawrence Klein LINK/UN DESA forecast (Rob Vos) World Bank (Hans Timmer) 11:15–11:30 Break 11:30–13:00 World Economic Outlook (continued) Chair: Bert Hickman Lead discussants: Ray Barrell (NIESR) Pete Richardson (OECD) General Discussion 13:00 – 14:00 Lunch 14:30 – 17:30 Panel discussion on the global financial crisis Chair: Stephen Hall (Leicester University) Panel members: Ray Barrell (NIESR) Giorgio Basevi (University of Bologna) Jose Antonio Ocampo (Columbia University) John Walker (Oxford Economics) Carl Weinberg (High Frequency Economics) (16:00–16:15 Break) 1 Friday, October 24, 2008 9:30- 11:30 Global outlook: commodity prices and economic implications Chair: Charlotte du Toit (University of Pretoria) Willy Meyers (University of Missouri-Columbia) Robert Kaufmann (Boston University) Pilar Fajarnes (UNCTAD) F. Gerard Adams (Northeastern University) Discussion 11:30–13:00 Regional Outlook: developed regions Chair: Byron Gangnes (University of Hawaii) United States (Lawrence Klein, University of Pennsylvania) Japan (Kanemi Ban, Osaka University) Western Europe (Ray Barrell, NIESR) 13:00–14:00 Lunch 14:30–17:30 Regional Outlook: developing and EiTs Chair: Pingfan Hong (UN/DESA) Africa (ECA) East and South Asia (ESCAP) West Asia (ESCWA) Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Economies in Transition (ECE) Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 17:30 Business and closing 2 2009 Bangkok, Thailand UN DESA University of Toronto Project LINK Meeting Second Session, 2009 United Nations Conference Centre Bangkok, Thailand October 26-28, 2009 Monday, October 26, 2009 8:30 – 8:45 Opening and welcome Mr. Nagesh Kumar, Director, Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, ESCAP Rob Vos, Director Development Policy and Analysis Division, UN DESA 8:45 – 10:15 World Economic Outlook Chair: Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii LINK/UN DESA Rob Vos, UN DESA, New York IMF Prakash Kannan, Research Department, IMF, Washington 10:15 – 10:30 Coffee/tea break 10:30 – 12:00 World Economic Outlook (continued) Chair: Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii Hans Timmer, Development Prospects Group Director World Bank, Washington General discussion 12:00 – 13:00 Lunch 13:15 – 14:45 Panel discussion on the global financial crisis Chair: Tom Wilson, University of Toronto Participants: F. Gerard Adams, Northeastern University Nagesh Kumar, Director, Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, ESCAP Eustaquio Reis, IPEA-DIMAC, Rio de Janeiro Hans Timmer, The World Bank, Washington Jean-Pierre Verbiest, Country Director, ADB, Bangkok/Manila 14:45 – 15:00 Coffee/tea break 15:00 – 16:30 Global Outlook: Commodity Prices and Economic Implications Chair: Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA , New York Agricultural Commodities Willy Meyers, University of Missouri-Columbia Oil Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Metals and Minerals F. Gerard Adams, Northeastern University General Discussion Tuesday October 27, 2009 8:30 – 10:30 Regional Outlook: Developed Regions Chair: Charlotte Du Toit, University of Pretoria Outlook Overview: OECD Countries David Turner, OECD, Paris United States Hung-Yi Li, UN DESA, New York Japan Kanemi Ban, Osaka University Europe Clive Altshuler, UN DESA, New York Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 10:30 – 10:45 Coffee/tea break 10:45 – 12:15 European Economies during the Crisis Chair: Roberto Mariano, Singapore Management University Fiscal Stimulus in Germany During the Current Recession György Barabas, Roland Döhrn, and Torsten Schmidt (RWI, Essen) 2 of 4 Assessing the Role of Central Banks in the Crisis: FED vs. ECB Franjo Stiblar, University of Ljubljana What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums? An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area David Haugh, Patrice Ollivaud, and David Turner (OECD, Paris) 12:15 – 13:15 Lunch 13:15 – 14:45 Regional Outlook: Developing Countries and EiTs Chair: F. Gerard Adams, Northeastern University Africa Adam Elhiraika, UN-ECA, Addis Ababa East and South Asia Tiziana Bonapace and Amy Wong, MPAS/MPDD, ESCAP Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 14:45 – 15:00 Coffee/tea break 15:00 – 16:30 Regional Outlook: Developing and EiTs (cont.) Chair: Clive Altshuler, UN-DESA, New York Latin America and the Caribbean Osvaldo Kacef, UN-ECLAC, Santiago CIS and other EiTs Robert Shelburne, UNECE, Geneva Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts Wednesday, October 28, 2009 8:30 – 10:30 Asian Economies after the Crisis Chair: Nagesh Kumar, ESCAP Asia and the Global Economic Crisis: Policy Response and Balancing Measures Malcolm Dowling, University of Hawaii Emerging South: Drivers of the Global Economic Recovery Sudip Ranjan Basu, UNCTAD, Geneva Asia-Pacific as the Emerging Global Growth Pole Shuvojit Banerjee, MPAS/MPDD, ESCAP 3 of 4 Capital Mobility in Developing Asia: How Does It Respond to the Financial Crisis? Juthathip Jongwanich, Asian Development Bank, Manila General Discussion 10:30 – 10:45 Coffee/tea break 10:45 – 12:15 The Economic Crisis in Retrospect Chair: Alexander Welfe, University of Lodz Oil prices, Mortgage Payments, and the Financial Crisis Robert Kaufmann, Boston University The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Forming a Currency Union in East Asia Ji Chou and Ming Huan Liou (Shih Hsin and National Central Universities) Alternative Policies for US Economic Recovery Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii 12:15 – 13:15 Lunch 13:15 – 14:15 Topics in Applied Econometrics Chair: Rob Vos, UN-DESA, New York Synchronization of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies Pami Dua (Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi) Energy Resource Depletion and Carbon Emissions – Global Projections to 2050 John Perkins (NIEIR, Melbourne) 14:15 – 14:30 Coffee/tea break 14:30 – 15:00 Session Closing Rob Vos, UN DESA Nagesh Kumar, ESCAP 4 of 4 2010 New York, NY, USA UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy (Project LINK) 20-22 October 2010 PROGRAMME Wednesday, October 20, 2010 9:30 – 9:45 Opening and welcome Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Rob Vos, UN-DESA 9:45–13:00 World Economic Outlook Chair: Peter Pauly Presentations: Rob Vos, UN DESA Vladimir Klyuev, IMF Hans Timmer, The World Bank Lead Discussants: Dawn Holland, NIESR General discussion 13:00 – 14:15 Lunch 14:15 – 15:45 Panel discussion: To stimulate or not to stimulate? The role of fiscal policy in the present stage of the recovery Chair: Rob Vos José Antonio Ocampo, Columbia University Moazam Hahmood, ILO Jomo, K.S., UN-DESA Hans Timmer, The World Bank 15:45–16:00 Coffee/tea break 16:15–17:45 Global outlook for commodity markets and international tourism Chair: Pingfan Hong Agricultural Commodities Willy Meyers, University of Missouri-Columbia Oil Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Metals and Minerals F. Gerard Adams, North Eastern University Prospects for international tourism John Kester, UNWTO General Discussion Thursday October 21, 2010 9:30- 11:15 Regional Outlook: Developed Regions Chair: Mette Rolland United States Hung-yi Li, UN-DESA Japan Kanemi Ban, Osaka University Europe Dawn Holland, NIESR, London Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 11:15–11:30 Coffee/tea break 11:30–13:00 Macroeconomic Challenges for the Global Economy Chair: Byron Gangnes Prospects for growth and imbalances beyond the short-term David Turner, OECD The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Exploring international inequality patterns in technology contents of exports Sudip Ranjan Basu, UNCTAD 13:00–14:15 Lunch 14:15–15:45 Policy Alternatives Reconsidered Chair: Stephen Hall Employment Effects of Fiscal Policy: How Costly are ARRA Jobs? F. Gerard Adams and B. Gangnes, Northeastern University and University of Hawaii Fiscal positions in the EU economies and prospects for consolidation Dawn Holland, NIESR, London Australia and the GFC: Highly efficient policy response at the cost of locking in structural imbalances Peter Brain, NIEIR, Melbourne 2 of 3 15:45–16:00 Coffee/tea break 16:00–17:30 Regional Outlook (continued): Developing and Economies in Transition Chair: Aleksander Welfe Latin America and the Caribbean Osvaldo KACEF, UN-ECLAC Special session: Remembering Abel Beltran del Rio Various LINK Participants Western Asia Tarik Alami, UN-ESCWA Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts Friday, October 22, 2010 9:30-11:15 Global modelling issues Chair: Peter Pauly UN World Forecasting Model Clive Altshuler, Hung-yi Li and Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA UN Global Policy Model Alex Izurieta, UN-DESA Macroeconomic policy and employment flows Ekkehard Ernst, Matthieu Charpe, and Uma Rani, ILO 11:15–11:30 Coffee/tea break 11:30–13:00 Regional Outlook: Developing Countries and Economies in Transition (continued) Chair: Eustaquio Reis Africa Nicolas Maystre, UN-DESA East and South Asia Shuvojit Banerjee, ESCAP CIS and other Economies in Transition Robert Shelburne, UN-ECE Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 13:00 –13:15 Closing session 3 of 3 2011 New York, NY, USA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Project LINK UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy (LINK Project) October 24-26, 2011 The Beekman Tower Hotel, New York PROGRAMME (20 October 2011) Monday, October 24, 2011 9:30 – 11:15 Opening and welcome followed by Keynote address Aftershocks of the global financial crisis and the way forward Location: United Nations Headquarters – ECOSOC Chamber North Lawn Building (1st Avenue and 46th Street, visitors entrance) Chairs: H.E. Mr. Abulkalam Abdul Momen, Chair of the Second Committee, and H.E. Mr. Lazarous Kapambwe, President of the Economic and Social Council Moderator: Rob Vos, UN-DESA Speaker: Joseph E. Stiglitz, Columbia University General discussion 11:15 – 12:00 Relocate to Beekman Tower Hotel Location: 3 Mitchell Place (Near 1st Avenue and 49th Street) 12:00 – 13:00 World Economic Outlook Chair: Peter Pauly Presentations: Rob Vos, UN-DESA Mitali Das, IMF 13:00 – 14:15 Lunch 14:15 – 15:45 World Economic Outlook, continued Chair: Peter Pauly Theo van Rensburg, World Bank Lead Discussants: Adrian Cooper, Oxford Economics David Turner, OECD Moazam Mahmood, ILO General discussion 15:45 – 16:00 Coffee/tea break 16:00 – 17:30 Global outlook for commodity markets and international tourism Chair: Byron Gangnes Agricultural Commodities Patrick Westhoff, University of Missouri-Columbia Oil Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Prospects for international tourism John Kester, UNWTO General Discussion F. Gerard Adams Remembered Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii Tuesday October 25, 2011 9:30- 11:15 Regional Outlook: Developed Regions Chair: Delia Nilles United States Hung-Yi Li , UN-DESA Japan Kanemi Ban, Osaka University Europe Dawn Holland, NIESR, London Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 11:15–11:30 Coffee/tea break 11:30–13:00 Regional Outlook (continued): Developing and Economies in Transition Chair: Pingfan Hong Africa Adam B. Elhiraika, UN-ECA Latin America and the Caribbean Sandra Manuelito, UN-ECLAC 2 of 4 Western Asia Abdallah Al Dardari, UN-ESCWA Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 13:00–14:15 Lunch 14:15–15:45 The global debt crisis (cont.) Chair : Manuel Montes “Can fiscal union resolve the euro crisis?” Iain Begg, London School of Economics “Long-term debt issues” David Turner, OECD , Paris 15:45–16:00 Coffee/tea break 16:00–17:30 The global debt crisis (cont.) Chair : Roberto Mariano “Modelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe” Dawn Holland, Simon Kirby, and Ali Orazgani , NIESR , London “The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads” Heather D, Gibson, Stephen G. Hall and George S. Tavlas, Bank of Greece, Athens and University of Leicester “Finance and jobs: implications for unemployment dynamics of financial sector development and reform” Ekkehard Ernst, ILO , Geneva Wednesday, October 26, 2011 9:30-11:15 International economic policy issues Chair: Stephen Hall “Domestic and foreign debt – global projections to 2050” John Perkins, NIEIR , Melbourne “Measuring policies, institutions and development in a multispeed world” Sudip Ranjan Basu, UNCTAD, Geneva “The relation among trader positions and oil prices: going beyond causal order” Robert Kaufmann, Boston University 11:15–11:30 Coffee/tea break 3 of 4 11:30–13:00 Regional Outlook (continued): Developing and Economies in Transition Chair: Eustaquio Reis East Asia and South Asia Ingo Pitterle, UN-DESA CIS and other economies in transition Robert C. Shelburne, UN-ECE Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 13:00–14:15 Lunch 14:15–15:45 International economic policy issues / global modelling Chair: Charlotte Du Toit “The super cycles in commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century” Jose Antonio Ocampo and Bilge Erten, Columbia University and UN-DESA, New York “The latest development in the UN World Economic Forecasting Modelling” Hung-Yi Li and Clive Altshuler, UN-DESA “The impact of the Internet on economic growth and productivity: a research proposal” Adrian Cooper, Oxford Economics 15:45-16:00 Closing session 4 of 4 2012 New York, NY, USA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Project LINK UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy October 22-24, 2012 New York Presentations Monday October 22, 2012 World Economic Outlook “LINK Global Economic Outlook” Mr. Rob Vos, Director, Development Policy Analysis Division, UN-DESA Rupa Duttagupta, IMF Andrew Burns, World Bank Jeffrey Herzog, Oxford Economics Global Outlook: Commodity Markets and International Tourism Agricultural Commodities, Willy Meyers, University of Missouri The World Oil Market, Robert Kaufmann, Boston University “Crude Oil: Commodity and/or Financial Asset? Marek Kolodziej, Robert Kaufmann, Nalin Kulatilaka, David Bichetti, Nicolas Maystre, Boston University UNWTO Tuesday October 23, 2012 Regional Outlook: Developed Regions United States, Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA Japan, Kanemi Ban, Osaka University Europe, Dawn Holland, NIESR Regional Outlook (cont.): Developing and Economies in Transition Africa Adam Elhiraika, UN-ECA Latin America and the Caribbean Juan Alberto Fuentes, UN-ECLAC Western Asia Yasuhisa Yamamoto, UN-ESCWA and Pierre Kohler, UN-DESA Global Issues “Fiscal Consolidation During a Depression”, Nikita Bagaria, Dawn Holland, and John van Reenen, LSE, NIESR, & LSE “Imbalances Within The Euro Area” David Turner, OECD Regional Outlook (cont.): Developing and Economies in Transition East Asia and South Asia Aynul Hasan, UN-ESCAP CIS and other economies in transition Robert Shelburne, UN-ECE Wednesday, October 24, 2012 International Economic Policy Issues “Cross-Country differences in the trade balance contributions of price and non-price competitiveness” Pavlos Karadeloglou, European Central Bank “The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries” Christian Dreger and Yanqun Zhang , DIW and CASS “Global Production Networks and Trade Transmission” Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii Global Modelling “Double Phillips Curves and Demand Regimes in the US and Europe” Matthieu Charpe and Peter Flaschel, ILO & Bielefeld “Bifurcation Boundaries in Macroeconomic Models” Jacques Kibambe Ngoie, University of Pretoria “Considering Labour Market Mismatch and Hiring Intentions: A Quarterly Forecasting Model for Employment” Ekkehard Ernst and Christian Viegelahn, ILO 2013 New York, NY, USA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Project LINK UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy (LINK Project) October 21-23, 2013 New York PROGRAMME (Version 18 October, 2013) Monday, October 21, 2013 World Economic Outlook Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA Rupa Duttagupta, IMF Andrew Burns, World Bank “Inequality and Growth”, Peter Pauly, Professor and Interim Dean, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto Lead Discussants: Moazam Mahmood, ILO, Geneva Dave Turner, OECD, Paris Sarah Hunter, Oxford Economics Commodity Markets and International Tourism Agricultural Commodities, Willy Meyers, Extra table FAPRI, University of Missouri The World Oil Market, Robert Kaufmann, Boston University “Is the World Oil Market Unified”, Robert Kaufmann, Boston University International Tourism, Sarbuland Khan, UNWTO Tuesday October 22, 2013 Regional Economic Outlooks Outlook - USA Outlook - Japan Outlook - Europe “Macro-Economic Outlook for the Euro Area”, Pavlos Karadeloglou, ECB , Frankfurt Outlook - UNECA Outlook - Latin America Outlook - Asia “The Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Major Developed Economies on Developing Economies”, Tatiana Fic, NIESR, London “The Effect of Government Debt, External Debt, and Their Interaction on Interest Rates”, David Turner, OECD, Paris “What Should We Do about (Macro) Pru? Macro Prudential Policy and Credit”, Ray Barrell, Brunel University, London Outlook - UNESCAP Outlook - UNECE Wednesday, October 23, 2013 International Economic Policy Issues “Fiscal Stimulus in Germany in the Aftermath of the Great Recession”, Gyorgy Barabas, RWI, Essen “Sustainability as Determinant of Potential Output in Open Economies”, Zsolt Darvas and Andras Simon, Corvinus University and Central Bank of Hungary, Budapest “A review of alternative measures of sustainable output incorporating macroeconomic imbalance indicators”, David Turner, OECD, Paris “Growing Together with Growth Polarization and Income Inequality”, Sudip Ranjan Basu, ESCAP, Bangkok “The Rand Exchange Rate – The Fundamental Truth”, Charlotte Du Toit, Plus Economics, Pretoria “Hiring Uncertainty: a New Indicator”, Christian Viegelahn and Ekkehard Ernst , ILO, Geneva “Housing Wealth: Blessing or Curse for Job Growth”, Ekkehard Ernst and Faten Saliba, ILO, Geneva 2014 New York, NY,USA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Project LINK UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy (LINK Project) October 22-24, 2014 New York PROGRAMME (Version 15 October, 2014) Wednesday, October 22, 2014 10:00 – 11:30 Roosevelt Hotel, Vanderbilt Suite, 2nd Floor World Economic Outlook Chair: Peter Pauly Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA Juan Francisco Yepez Albornoz, IMF Marc Stocker, World Bank 11:30–12:00 Break 12:00-13:00 General Discussion Lead Discussants: Moazam Mahmood, International Labour Organization Dave Turner, OECD, Paris Gregory Daco, Oxford Economics 13:00 – 14:30 Lunch 14:30 – 15:30 World Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair: Peter Pauly “Economic Depression vs. Multiple-Troughed Recessions: The Predicament of Euroland and Japan in the Early 21st Century” Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics General Discussion 15:30 – 16:00 Break 16:00 – 17:30 World Economic Outlook (cont.) and Commodity Markets Chair: Adolfo Castilla Agricultural Commodities Willy Meyers, University of Missouri, Columbia (Mo.) The World Oil Market Robert Kaufmann, Boston University “Price Differences Among Crude Oils: an Unreliable Supplier Discount” Robert Kaufmann, Boston University General Discussion Thursday, October 23, 2014 9:30-11:00 Regional Outlook: Developed Regions Chair: Mette Rolland United States Hung-yi Li, UN-DESA Japan Kanemi Ban, Kochi University of Technology, Japan Australia and New Zealand Nick Marinopoulos, NIEIR, Melbourne Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 11:00–11:30 Break 11:30–13:00 Regional Outlook (cont.): Developed Regions (cont.) Chair: Alexander Welfe “Macro-Economic Outlook for the Euro Area” Pavlos Karadeloglou, ECB , Frankfurt United Kingdom Clive Altshuler, UN-DESA Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 2 of 4 13:00–14:30 Lunch 14:30–15:30 Global Issues Chair: Charlotte du Toit “The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on the OECD Potential Output” David Turner, OECD, Paris “Global Potential and Insufficient Demand: Secular Stagnation?” Peter Pauly, University of Toronto 15:30–16:00 Break 16:00–17:30 Regional Outlook (cont.): Developing and Economies in Transition Chair: Mathias Kempf East Asia and South Asia Muhammad Hussain Malik, UN-ESCAP Latin America and the Caribbean Sandra Manuelito, UN-ECLAC Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts Friday, October 24, 2014 9:30-11:00 Developing Regions and Economies in Transition Chair: Eustaquio Reis Africa Adam Elhiraika, UN-ECA Economies in Transition Jose Palacin, UN-ECE Western Asia Yasuhisa Yamamoto, ESCWA Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 11:00-11:30 Break 3 of 4 11:30-13:00 Global Modeling Chair: Ingo Pitterle “China’s Race Against Climate Change” Clark Abt , Brandeis University “World Economic Growth and Trade, 1970-2014” Eduardo Loria, National Autonomous University, Mexico “Multi-country Modeling at UN” Clive Altshuler and Hung-Yi Li, UN-DESA “Vietnam and the Trans-Pacific Agreement” Jean-Louis Brillet, INSEE, Paris Closing (13:00) 4 of 4 2015 New York, NY, USA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Project LINK UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy (LINK Project) October 21-23, 2015 New York UN North Lawn Building, Conference Room 7 DRAFT PROGRAMME (Version 16 October 2015) Wednesday, October 21, 2015 9:30 – 9:45 Opening Remarks Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA 9:45 - 11:30 World Economic Outlook Chair: Peter Pauly Hamid Rashid, UN-DESA Thomas Helbling, IMF Franziska Ohnsorge, World Bank 11:30-11:45 Break 11:45-13:15 World Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair: Peter Pauly Lead Discussants: Carl Weinberg, High-Frequency Economics Dave Turner, OECD, Paris Beth Ann Bovino, Chief U.S. Economist, Standard and Poor’s Kathy Bostjancic, Oxford Economics Moazam Mahmood, ILO, Geneva General Discussion 13:15 – 14:15 Lunch 14:15 – 15:45 China and United States Chair: Ingo Pitterle, UN-DESA “Near-Term Prospects vs. Long-Run Development Trends in China: Riding the Wave” Carl Weinberg, High-Frequency Economics, New York Discussant: Hoi Wai Cheng, UN-DESA United States, Hung-Yi Li, UN-DESA General Discussion 15:45 – 16:00 Break 16:00 – 17:30 World Commodity Markets Chair: Sergio Vieira, UN-DESA Agricultural Commodities Willy Meyers, University of Missouri, Columbia (Mo.) The World Oil Market Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Summary Discussion of Global Outlook Thursday, October 22, 2015 9:30- 11:30 Regional Outlook: Japan and Europe Chair: Willem van der Geest, UN-DESA Japan Yoshihisa Inada, Konan University and APIR “The Macroeconomics of Japan’s Trade Balance” Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii “Macro-Economic Outlook for the Euro Area” Pavlos Karadeloglou, ECB, Frankfurt “Unconventional Monetary Policy and Money Demand” Christian Dreger, DIW, Berlin Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 11:30–11:45 Break 2 of 4 11:45–13:15 Global Issues: Potential Output and the ‘New Normal’ Chair: Delia Nilles “Re-assessing the Role of Weak Investment to the Slowdown in Productivity Growth and Secular Stagnation” David Turner, OECD, Paris “Sustainability as Determinant of Potential Output in Open Economies” Zsolt Darvas and Andras Simon, Corvinus University and Central Bank of Hungary, Budapest “Structural Breaks in Potential GDP of Four Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the ‘New Normal’” Alexander Apokin and I. Ipatova, CMASF and NRU-HSE, Moscow Group Discussion 13:15–14:15 Lunch 14:15-–15:45 Regional Outlook (cont.): Developing Countries and Economies in Transition Chair: Mette Rolland East Asia and South Asia Hamza Ali Malik, UN-ESCAP CIS and other Economies in Transition Jose Palacin, UNE -EC Discussant: Grigor Agabekian, UN-DESA Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts 15:45–16:00 Break 16:00-17:30 Regional Outlook (cont.): Developing Countries and Economies in Transition Chair: Matthias Kempf, UN-DESA Africa Adam Elhiraika and Hopestone Chavula, UN-ECA Latin America and the Caribbean Daniel Titelman, UN-ECLAC Western Asia Jose Antonio Pedrosa-Garcia, UN-ESCWA, 3 of 4 Discussant: Sebastian Vergara, UNDESA Each lead presentation is followed by comments from LINK country experts Friday, October 23, 2015 9:30-11:30 Forecasting and Econometrics Chair: Alexander Welfe “Nowcasting and the Role of Big Data in Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Critical Review” Pete Richardson, London “High-Mixed-Frequency Forecasting Models for GDP in Selected Southeast Asian Countries” Roberto S. Mariano and Suleyman Ozmucur, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia “Time-Varying Coefficient Models” Stephen G. Hall, P.A.V.B. Swamy and George S. Tavlas, Leicester University and Bank of Greece, Athens “A New Tool for Inflation Analysis: Short Demonstration” Sebastian Koch, IHS, Vienna 11:30-11:45 Break 11:45–13:15 Global Modelling Chair: Charlotte Du Toit “Modeling the Macroeconomic Transmission of Commodity Prices” Dawn Holland, UN – DESA “Airfares and Oil Prices: Symmetric Adjustments to Asymmetric Adjustments in Oil Prices” Robert Kaufmann, Boston University “Determination of the INR/USD Exchange Rate: Modelling and Forecasting” Pami Dua, University of Delhi 13:15-13:30 Closing session 4 of 4 2016 Toronto, Canada Project LINK Meeting 2016 October 19-21, 2016 InterContinental Hotel Yorkville, Toronto Wednesday, 19 October, 2016 09:00-09:15 Opening remarks Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Pingfan Hong, Director UNDESA 09:15-10:45 World Economic Outlook Chair: Peter Pauly United Nations Pingfan Hong and Dawn Holland, UNDESA, New York International Monetary Fund Malhar Shyam Nabar, IMF , Washington High Frequency Economics Carl Weinberg, HFE, New York 10:45-11:15 Break 11:15-12:45 World Economic Outlook (cont.) Chair: Peter Pauly Lead Discussants: Steven Tobin, ILO, Geneva Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii Nicolas Maystre, UNCTAD, Geneva Open discussion 12:45-14:15 Lunch break 1 14:15-15:45 Panel : Brexit - Implications for the World Economy Chair: Adolfo Castilla Panelists: Adele Bergin, Economic and Social Research Institute , Dublin Zsolt Darvas, Bruegel, Brussels Ray Barrell , Brunel University , London Open discussion 15:45-16:10 Break 16:10-17:40 World commodity markets and energy modelling Chair: Byron Gangnes Prospects for non-oil commodities Janvier Nkurunziza, UNCTAD's Special Unit on Commodities, Geneva Agricultural commodities William Meyers , University of Missouri, Columbia (Mo.) The World Oil Market/ “A New Relation Among Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Prices: Efficiency Gains and Hydraulic Fracturing” Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Open discussion 7:00-9:00 pm Reception: Desautels Hall, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto Thursday, 20 October, 2016 9:00-11:00 Regional outlook: North America, Europe, and Japan Chair: Stephen Hall United States Dawn Holland, UN-DESA, New York Europe Pavlos Karadeloglou, European Central Bank, Frankfurt Japan Hung-Yi Li, Consultant Canada Peter Dungan, University of Toronto Open discussion : LINK national delegates 2 11:00-11:20 Break 11:20-12:50 Regional prospects: Adjusting to lower commodity prices Chair: Ingo Pitterle Africa Khaled Hussein, UN–ECA , Addis Ababa Latin America Daniel Titelman , UN-ECLAC, Santiago CIS Jose Palacin, UN-ECE, Geneva Open discussion : LINK national delegates 12:50-14:10 Lunch 14:10-15:40 Regional prospects: Banking system, corporate debt and financial stability in Asia and Pacific Chair: Eustaquio Reis Western Asia Yasuhisa Yamamoto, UN-ESCWA, Beirut East and South Asia Daniel Jongdae Lee, UN-ESCAP, Bangkok Open discussion : LINK national delegates 15:40-16:00 Break 16:00-17:30 International finance and exchange rates Chair: Paolo Onofri “Measuring systemic stress in European banking system” Stephen Hall, Leicester University “The role of real undervaluation in supporting growth and structural change” Nicolas Maystre, UNCTAD, Geneva “Macro stress testing and resilience assessment of Indian banking” Pami Dua, Delhi University Open discussion 3 Friday, 21 October 2016 09:00-10:30 Income distribution and inequality Chair: Wang Tongsan “Inequality in the EU and in the world” Zsolt Darvas, Corvinus University, Budapest “Linking inequality and poverty into macroeconomic models” Dawn Holland , UNDESA, New York “Long Term Demographics, Income Distribution and Expenditure: Effects on Growth” John Perkins, National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, Melbourne Open discussion 10:45-11:10 Break 11:10-13:10 Topics in macroeconomic modelling Chair: Alfredo Coutino “How R&D expenditures influence total factor productivity and technical efficiency?” Alexander Apokin and Irina Ipatova, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Moscow “Deepening structural modelling for decoupling energy and emissions from economic growth” Stefan Schleicher, University of Graz “Unemployment benefits, precautionary savings and demand” Stefan Kuehn, ILO , Geneva “The ECA Macro-model” Hopestone Chavula, UN-ECA, Addis Ababa Open discussion 13:10-13:25 Closing session Peter Pauly, University of Toronto Pingfan Hong, UN-DESA 4 2017 Geneva, Switzerland Project LINK Fall Meeting 2017 UNCTAD, Palais des Nations, Salle VIII October 3-5, 2017 Tuesday, 3 October, 2017 09:30-09:45 Opening Richard Kozul-Wright, UNCTAD, Director of the Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, Geneva Peter Pauly University of Toronto 09:45-11:15 World Economic Outlook Chair: Peter Pauly United Nations Pingfan Hong and Dawn Holland, UN-DESA, New York UNCTAD Richard Kozul-Wright, UNCTAD, Director of the Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, Geneva OECD David Turner, OECD, Paris 11:15-11:30 Break 11:30-13:00 Global Economic Policy Issues Chair: Mette Rolland Invited Lecture Protectionist dynamics: Form and consequences Simon Evenett, University of St. Gallen Policies to create trade and policies to diverting trade: China’s strategy to fill the former U.S. role as global trade leader Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics, New York Open discussion 1 13:00-14:00 Lunch break 14:00-15:30 Global Financial Issues Chair: Adolfo Castilla Return on foreign assets and liabilities: Can other countries replicate the exorbitant privileges of the United States? Zsolt Darvas, Bruegel, Brussels and Corvinus University, Budapest Towards an understanding of credit cycles: do all credit booms cause crises? Ray Barrell, Dilruba Karim and Corrado Macchiarelli, Brunel University, London; and London School of Economics and Political Science, London Inflation forecasting and macroeconomic stabilization Harris Dellas, Heather D. Gibson, Stephen Hall,and George S. Tavlas, Bank of Greece, Athens; and Leicester University 15:30-16:00 Break 16:00-17:30 World commodity markets and energy modelling Chair: Alfredo Coutino Prospects for non-oil commodities Janvier Nkurunziza, UNCTAD's Special Unit on Commodities, Geneva The world oil market Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Agricultural commodities William Meyers , University of Missouri, Columbia (Mo.) Open discussion Wednesday, 4 October, 2017 9:30-11:00 Global Outlook (cont.) Chair: Thomas Wilson United States Dawn Holland, UN-DESA, New York ILO Outlook Sangheon Lee, ILO, Geneva Designing fan charts for GDP growth forecasts to better reflect downturn risks 2 David Turner, OECD, Paris 11:00-11:30 Break 11:30-13:00 Policy Responses to Commodity Market Crises Chair: Wang Tongsan Commodity price cycles and policy reactions in small dependent economies Joaquin Vial and Alberto Naudon, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago R&D investments and commodity booms Roberto Álvarez, Sebastián Vergara and Juan M. Wlasiuk, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago; and UN-DESA, New York Commodity connectedness Francis X. Diebold, Laura Liu and Kamil Yilmaz; University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia; Federal Reserve Board, Washington; and Koç University, Istanbul 13:00-14:00 Lunch 14:00-15:30 Perspectives for Europe Chair: Delia Nilles Invited Lecture The Euro: Far from perfect but not doomed Charles Wyplosz, Graduate Institute, Geneva and CEPR, London European Union Pavlos Karadeloglou, European Central Bank, Frankfurt Open Discussion 15:30-16:00 Break 16:00-17:30 Topics in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting Chair: Alexander Welfe The World Bank’s customizable stand-alone modelling interface: making forecasting easy(ier) Andrew Burns, The World Bank, Washington What to do when effective exchange rates cannot be calculated for developing countries? PANIC? David Neto, UNCTAD, Geneva Pass-through of gas taxes Robert Kaufmann, Boston University 3 Thursday, 5 October 2017 09:30-11:00 Topics in macroeconomic modelling and policy analysis Chair: Clive Altshuler Women's participation in the labour market around the world: trade-off between preferences, gender norms and socio-economic constraints Stefan Kuehn, ILO , Geneva Structural and quasi-accounting models: Which is best and can they work together? Jean Louis Brillet, INSEE, Paris Long-term changes in industry structure: Effects on trade, real wage growth and labour share of income John Perkins, National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, Melbourne 11:00-11:30 Break 11:30-13:00 Regional Outlook (cont.) : Asia Chair: Charlotte du Toit Japan Yasuhisa Yamamoto, UN-DESA, New York East and South Asia Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, UN-ESCAP, Bangkok Western Asia Seung-Jin Baek, UN-ESCWA, Beirut Open discussion : LINK national delegates 13:00-14:00 Lunch 14:00-15:30 Regional Outlook (cont.) Chair: Franjo Stiblar Africa Adam Elhiraika, UN-ECA, Addis Ababa Latin America (via video link) Daniel Titelman, UN-ECLAC, Santiago 4 CIS Jose Palacin, UN-ECE, Geneva Open discussion: LINK national delegates 15:30-16:00 Break 16:00-17:00 Growth and productivity issues Chair: Suleyman Ozmucur Entrepreneurship, investment, employment and economic growth Hilary Nwokeabia, UNCTAD, Geneva Weak global productivity growth in an environment of rapid technological progress Ingo Pitterle, UN-DESA, New York 17:00 Close 5 2018 Santiago, Chile Project LINK Fall Meeting 2018 ECLAC, Room Celso Furtado Santiago, Chile September 5-7, 2018 WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 5, 2018 09:30-9:50 Opening UN/ECLAC Peter Pauly, University of Toronto 9:50-11:45 World Economic Outlook Chair: Peter Pauly LINK Global Economic Outlook Dawn Holland, UN/DESA, New York IMF World Economic Outlook Mico Mrkaic, IMF, Washington, D.C World Bank Global Economic Prospects Dana Vorisek, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Open discussion on world economy 11:45-12:00 Break 12:00-13:00 Further discussion on global economy Chair: Daniel Titelman The long view: scenarios to 2060 David Turner, OECD, Paris Scrapping or saving the Paris Agreement: The decisive role of China, the United States and the European Union Stefan Schleicher, University of Graz 13:00-14:30 Lunch break 14:30-16:00 Commodity Prices and the Global Economy Chair: Yasuhisa Yamamoto Oil price regimes: why do prices stray from market fundamentals? Robert Kaufmann, Boston University Agricultural commodities Willi Meyers, University of Missouri Non-oil commodities and commodity dependence Janvier Nkurunziza, UNCTAD, Geneva Open discussion on commodities and commodity dependence 16:00-16:30 Break 16:30-17:30 Sustainable development and multilateralism Chair: Franjo Stiblar Stylized facts and determinants of investment in Latin America Esteban Perez, UN/ECLAC, Santiago Global labour markets Stefan Kuehn, ILO, Geneva 17:45 Close THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 6, 2018 09:30-11:00 Regional Outlooks Chair: Charlotte du Toit Latin America and the Caribbean Daniel Titelman, UN/ECLAC, Santiago Africa Khaled Hussein, UN/ECA, Addis Ababa Challenges in developed economies David Turner, OECD, Paris Open discussion following each presentation 11:00-11:30 Break 11:30-13:00 Tariffs, policy and trade dynamics Chair: Ray Barrell LAC trade dynamics and the global trade tensions Keiji Inoue, UN/ECLAC, Santiago Growth, Aging, and the Future of East Asian Trade Imbalances Byron Gangnes, University of Hawaii Productive capacities and export dynamics Sebastian Vergara, UN/DESA, New York Open discussion on global trade tensions 13:00-14:30 Lunch break 14:30-16:00 Special session sponsored by the Central Bank of Chile Monetary policy and global spillovers Chair: Joaquín Vial Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillovers to International Bond Markets Sebastian Claro, PUC-Chile, former Vice-Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, co-authored with Elias Albagli, Luis Ceballos and Damian Romero The International Transmission of Monetary Policy Robert Hills, Bank of England, United Kingdom, co-authored with Claudia Buch, Matthieu Bussière and Linda Goldberg Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty Saroj Bhattarai, UT-Austin, co-authored with Arpita Chaterjee and Woong Yong Park 16:30-17:30 Financial crises Chair: Ingo Pitterle Macroeconomics and Financial Crises Ray Barrell, Centre for Macroeconomics, LSE and Brunel University, co- authored with Dilruba Karim Booms, Crises and Recoveries: A new paradigm of the business cycle and its policy implications Sweta Saxena, UN/ESCAP, Bangkok, co-authored with Valerie Cerra FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2018 09:30-11:30 Regional outlooks Chair: Alek Welfe Western Asia Seung Jin Baek, UN/ESCWA, Beirut East Asia and South Asia Sweta Saxena, UN/ESCAP, Bangkok Economies in transition Kirill Mikhaylenko, Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Moscow (tbc) Open discussion following each presentation 11:30-11:45 Break 11:45-13:15 Roundtable discussion: The future of the Project LINK network Chair: Peter Pauly 13:30 Close