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Effects of Stream Temperature and Climate Change On EFFECTS OF STREAM TEMPERATURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLUVIAL ARCTIC GRAYLING AND NON-NATIVE SALMONIDS IN THE UPPER BIG HOLE RIVER, MONTANA by Shane Jeffrey Vatland A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Fish and Wildlife Biology MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY Bozeman, Montana December 2015 ©COPYRIGHT by Shane Jeffrey Vatland 2015 All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my loving and supportive family and friends. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I thank my mentor and co-advisor Dr. Robert Gresswell for his guidance throughout this process. I thank Dr. Al Zale, my co-advisor and committee chair, for his unwavering support and critical contribution to my graduate studies at Montana State University. Dr. Wyatt Cross and Dr. Jeff Kershner provided valuable feedback on all my writing and were very supportive throughout this endeavor. I would also like to thank Dr. Paul Gannon for participating as my graduate school representative. Overall, my graduate advising committee was extremely helpful in guiding my dissertation research and doctoral student experience. I would like to thank Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks, numerous field staff, and many volunteers for acquiring and organizing field and lab data. I would also like to thank my graduate student peers for their many thoughtful contributions. Dr. Daniel Isaak, Dr. Geoff Poole, and Dr. Steve Hostetler all provided critical inputs to my dissertation. Dr. Doug Peterson was also very supportive and helped enable this research project. Funding to support this project was provided by U.S. Geological Survey, Big Hole Watershed Committee, Montana Water Center—Wild Fish Habitat Initiative, Arctic Grayling Recovery Program, and Montana Trout Unlimited. Graduate student fellowships from the Montana Institute on Ecosystems and Montana Water Center partially supported the analysis of these data. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................1 References ........................................................................................................................6 2. QUANTIFYING STREAM THERMAL REGIMES AT MULTIPLE SCALES: COMBINING THERMAL INFRARED IMAGERY AND STATIONARY STREAM TEMPERATURE DATA IN A NOVEL MODELING FRAMEWORK .........................................................................................8 Contributions of Author and Co-Authors ........................................................................8 Manuscript Information Page ..........................................................................................9 Abstract ..........................................................................................................................10 Introduction ....................................................................................................................10 Methods..........................................................................................................................11 Study Area .............................................................................................................11 Data Collection and Processing .............................................................................12 Stationary Temperature Loggers................................................................12 Airborne Thermal Infrared (TIR)...............................................................13 Langrangian Longitudinal Thermal Profiling ............................................13 Geographic Information System (GIS) ......................................................13 Modeling Summer Stream Temperature ................................................................13 General Approach ......................................................................................13 Predicting Subdaily Mean Stream Temperature ........................................14 Developing A Modified Sine Model..........................................................14 Evaluating Model Performance .................................................................16 Model Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................16 Applying the Model to Management Criteria ............................................16 Results ............................................................................................................................17 TIR Accuracy and Stationary Loggers ..................................................................17 Predicting Subdaily Mean Stream Temperature Longitudinal Profiles .................17 Development of the TIR-Based Sine Model ..........................................................17 TIR-Based Sine Model Evaluation ........................................................................18 Model Sensitivity ...................................................................................................18 Comparing the Model to Management Criteria .....................................................19 Discussion ......................................................................................................................19 Integrating TIR and Stationary Stream Temperature Data ....................................19 Model Evaluation ...................................................................................................20 From Theory to Application ..................................................................................23 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................23 References ......................................................................................................................24 v TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED 3. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE THERMAL HABITATS OF ARCTIC GRAYLING AND NON-NATIVE SALMONIDS ................................................................................................................26 Contributions of Author and Co-Authors ......................................................................26 Manuscript Information Page ........................................................................................27 Title Page .......................................................................................................................28 Abstract ..........................................................................................................................29 Introduction ....................................................................................................................30 Materials and Methods ...................................................................................................32 Study Area, Focal Species, and Thermal Tolerance Thresholds ...........................32 Water Temperature Modeling Overview ...............................................................35 Stream Water and Air Temperature Measurements...............................................36 Site-specific Climate Forcing on Water Temperature ...........................................37 Future Air Temperature Scenarios .........................................................................39 Modeling Site-Specific Water Temperature Change Over Time ..........................42 Modeling Spatial Patterns of Summer Water Temperature ...................................42 Combining Models to Predict Water Temperature Across Space and Time .........45 Results ............................................................................................................................47 Air-Water Temperature Relationships ...................................................................47 Air Temperature Changes ......................................................................................47 Projected Changes in Summer Water Temperatures at Observation Sites ............48 Spatial Predictors of Summer Water Temperatures ...............................................49 Projected Changes in Summer Water Temperatures Throughout the Study Area ....................................................................................50 Discussion ......................................................................................................................52 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................59 References ......................................................................................................................69 4. CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................80 References ......................................................................................................................84 REFERENCES CITED ......................................................................................................86 APPENDICES .................................................................................................................103 APPENDIX A: Supporting Information for Chapter 2........................................104 APPENDIX B: Supporting Information for Chapter 3 ........................................112 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 2.1. Goodness-of-Fit Metrics from Internal and External Model Evaluation .......19 3.1. Site-specific linear regressions using weekly mean daily maximum (WMDM) air temperature (°C) as
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