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Science for drought Proceedings of the National Drought Forum Brisban~April2003
Edited by Roger Stone and Ian Partridge
Department of Primary Industries Queensland ------.
QC 03004 ISSN 0728-067X Contents ISBN 0 7345 0243 5 Contributors iv Foreword vi Climate change: are droughts becoming drier and more frequent? 1 - Neville Nicholls The National Drought Forum was organised by the Drought and climate change 8 - James Risbey, David Karoly, Anna Reynolds and Karl Braganza Department of Primary Industries, Toowoomba Australian droughts, climate variability and climate change: insights from CSIRO's climate models 12 and held in the -Wenju Cai Carlton Crest Hotel, Brisbane on 15-16 April 2003. Can we predict decadal changes in Australia's climate? 21 -Scott Power, Rob Colman and Xiandong Wang The Department of Primary Industries Defining drought: a meteorological viewpoint acknowledges the financial assistance of the - Michael Coughlan Climate Variability in Agriculture Program (CVAP) Lessons from the past: climate from corals 28 - Janice Lough of Long-term rainfall declines in southern Australia 35 Land and Water Australia - William Wright and David Jones and of the Drought and climate forecasting in an Australian context 41 - Roger Stone, Robert Fawcett, Yvette Everingham and Greg Pinington University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba. POAMkBureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system 49 - Oscar Alves, G. Wang, A Zhong, N. Smith, F. Tzeitkin, G. Warren, A. Schiller, S. Godfrey and G. Meyers Climate variability and climate change: challenges and opportunities for farming an even more sunburnt country 57 - Mark Howden Preventing the 9th degradation episode in Australia's grazing lands 62 The Department of Primary Industries seeks a better quality of life for all Queenslanders-a quality oflife supported - Grant Stone, S. Crimp, K. Day, W. Hall, B. Henry, G. McKeon, J. Owens, S. Power, J. Syktus and 1. Watson by innovative world-class food and fibre industries, by responsible and ecologically sustainable use of natural EI Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop 74 resources and by capable and self-reliant rural communities. - Andries Potgieter, Graeme Hammer, Holger Meinke, Roger Stone and Lisa Goddard Our business is about: Potential use of climate forecasts in water resources management - innovative science and commercial uptake of new technology by food and fibre industries - Yahya Abawi, Sunil Dutta and John Ritchie - sustainable use of natural resources Options for cropping systems management at a range of times cales 82 - food safety and protection against imported pests and diseases - Holger Meinke - market-driven and ethical food and fibre production Contribution of science to managing cropping systems in a highly variable environment: case studies using crop - capable rural communities achieving prosperity and self-reliance through successful rural businesses. modeling and farm economics 88 This publication provides information to scientists to improve sustainable use of natural resources and sustainable - Fred Chudleigh and Howard Cox primary production in a highly variable climate. Landscape management and drought: living with a variable climate 94 While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility - David Freebairn and George Smith for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, Managing grazing lands in a variable climate 101 contained in these proceedings. - Mick Quirk and Peter O'Reagain Evaluation of multi-decadal variability in rainfall in Queensland using indices of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and inter-decadal variability 106 Design of book and cover by Ian Partridge, Queensland Centre for Climate Applications, Toowoomba, Queensland. - Steve Crimp and Ken Day Fonts: Headings - Meta Bold; text - Rotis Serif. Animal breeding and management for drought 116 - Richard Holroyd Cover images provided by Alan Peacock of Natural Resource Sciences Centre, Department of Natural Resources Using science to combat drought: a case study of stay-green in sorghum 120 and Mines, Indooroopilly. The map of Australia shows percentiles of rainfall for the 12 months previous to January - Anrew Borrell, Erik Van Oosterom, Graeme Hammer, David Jordan and Bob Henzell· 2003 relative to the long-term (1900 - current) average; the image of sea surface temperature anomalies in October 2002 is derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Strategic research opportunities for crop adaptation 125 - Graeme Hammer Climate change projections and drought 13 0 © The State of Queensland, Department of Primary Industries 2003 - Penny Whetton and Ramasamy Suppiah Copyright protects this publication. The State of Queensland has no objection to this material being reproduced Beyond a 3-month outlook: using ENSO for 18 month cropping-plans in northern NSW 137 but asserts its right to be recognised as author of its original material and the right to have its material remain unaltered. - Peter Hayman and Josh Gordon Simulating historical droughts: some lessons for drought policy 141 Enquiries should be addressed to: - Ken Day, David Ahrens and Greg McKeon Manager, DPI Publications Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation (Aussie GRASS) 152 Department of Primary Industries - John Carter, D. Bruget, R. Hassett, B. Henry, D. Ahrens, K. Brook, K. Day, N. Flood, W. Hall, G. McKeon, C. Paull GPO Box 46 Brisbane Qld 4001 Evaluation of a dynamical seasonal climate forecast system for Queensland 160 THE U~l~tRS\l'I Of UUEENSLAHD UBRARY - Jozef Sytkus, Greg McKeon, Nell Flood, Ian.Smith and Lisa Goddard crt! '1' O/~..t -a-
iv v Foreword
This has been an historic forum. For the first time in almost thirteen years scientists have come from all over Australia to present scientific research that is focussed directly on drought issues. The current drought has once again shown the devastating impacts our variable climate can have. The lesson we must all take from it is that preparation, forward planning and risk management are critical. A recent survey has found that nearly 400f0 of Australian farmers have adopted seasonal forecasts. This rate of take-up may seem low, but it has been achieved in a little over a decade since regular seasonal forecasts became available. Many farmers will come out of the current drought with greater interest and questioning of the climate forecast information available to them, and this will be a challenge and opportunity for our researchers. There is a general appreciation among farmers of the value of climate and rainfall data to their business, but there remains a reluctance amongst many to input that data and information into their decision-making. One issue for research organisations is to present information in which producers can have confidence and which they can access and use with relative ease. The DPI and the wider Queensland Government places much emphasis on the incorporation of climate forecasting into production and natural resource management systems. This integration and the development of modelling and decision support software are the future of sustainable farming in Australia. The State Government through the Queensland Centre for Climate Applications has had a strong relationship with the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program which has funded many research and development projects. The Climate Variability in Agriculture Program has been a major sponsor in this science forum bringing together leading scientists from the Queensland Government, the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Australian Institute of Marine Science, Australian universities, the Bureau of Rural Sciences and State agricultural departments. The outcomes from this forum will be presented to key decision makers within Federal and State governments, industry associations and all those involved in drought policy. Its implementation will form the basis for a major review of better preparing this country for drought.
The Honourable Henry Palaszczuk MP Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities
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