Supporting theEstablishmentofVietnam’s Socio-economicDevelopmentStrategy 2011-20 Knowledge Sharing Program Supporting the Establishment of Vietnam’s 2011-20 Socio-economic Development Strategy Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Republic of Korea April 2010 Government Complex 2, Gwacheon, 427-725, Korea ● Tel. 82-2-2150-7712 www.mosf.go.kr Korea Development Institute 130-740, P.O.Box 113 Hoegiro 49 Dongdaemun-gu Seoul ● Tel. 82-2-958-4114 www.kdi.re.kr Knowledge Sharing Program April 2010 Center for International Development, KDI ● P.O. Box 113 Hoegiro 49 Dongdaemun-gu Seoul, 130-740 MINISTRY OF STRATEGY ● Tel. 02-958-4224 Korea Development Institute ● www.ksp.go.kr AND FINANCE Supporting the Establishment of Vietnam’s 2011-20 Socio-economic Development Strategy Supporting the Establishment of Vietnam’s 2011-20 Socio-economic Development Strategy Project Title Supporting the Establishment of Vietnam’s 2011-20 Socio-economic Development Strategy Prepared by Korea Development Institute(KDI) Supported by Ministry of Strategy and Finance of the Republic of Korea Prepared for The Government of Vietnam In cooperation with Development Strategy Institute, Ministry of Planning and Investment of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Program Directors Wonhyuk Lim, Director, Policy Research Division, Center for International Development (CID), KDI Taihee Lee, Director, Policy Consultation Division, CID, KDI Project Coordinator Tae-Jin Joo, Research Associate, Policy Research Division, CID, KDI Project Manager Sang-Woo Nam, Adjunct Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management Sector-Project Managers Il-Chong Nam, Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management Hyun-Sik Kim, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements Joon-Kyung Kim, Director, Policy Training Division, KDI Chinhee Hahn, Senior Research Fellow, KDI Joonghae Suh, Research Fellow, KDI Authors I. Search for Development Path and Evaluation of Growth Potential up to 2020 Chinhee Hahn, Senior Fellow, KDI Vo Tri Thanh, Vice President, Central Institute for Economic Management Nguyen Thi Lan Huong, Deputy Head, General Department, Development Strategy Institute II. Monetary and Financial Policy Chapter 1: Myungjig Kim, Professor, Hanyang University Hangyong Lee, Assistant Professor, Hanyang University Nguyen Thi Minh Ngoc, Banking Strategy Institute Chapter 2: Inseok Shin, Associate Professor, Chung-Ang University Nguyen Thi Kim Thanh, Director General, Banking Strategy Institute, State Bank of Vietnam Chapter 3: Joon-Kyung Kim, Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management Nguyen Thi Lan Huong, Deputy Head, General Department, Development Strategy Institute Bui Nghi, Deputy Director General, Department of Cooperatives, Ministry of Planning and Investment III. Industrial Technology Development Policy Chapter 1: Taeyoung Shin, Senior Research Fellow, Science Policy Technology Institute Nguyen Viet Hoa, Vice Director, Department for Strategy and Foresight Studies, National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategy Studies Chapter 2: Joonghae Suh, Research Fellow, KDI Tran Ngoc Ca, President, Office of National Council for Science and Technology Policy Chapter 3: Deok-Soon Yim, Director, Office for Policy Studies, Gyeonggi Science & Technology Center, Gyeonggi Research Institute Dinh The Phong, Research Fellow, National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategy Studies (NISTPASS) IV. Efficient and Harmonious Enterprise Policy Chapter 1: Il-Chong Nam, Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management Woochan Kim, Associate Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management Tran Tien Cuong, Director, Department of Enterprise Reform and Development, Central Institute for Economic Management Chapter 2: Youngrak Choi, Professor, Korea University Bach Tan Sinh, Director, Department of Science and Technology Human Resource Policy and Organization, NISTPASS English Editors Tae-Jin Joo, Research Associate, Policy Research Division, CID, KDI Mikang Kwak, Reseach Associate, Policy Consultation Division, CID, KDI Sae-Byul Chun, Reseach Associate, Policy Consultation Division, CID, KDI Government Publications Registration Number 11-1051000-000087-01 ISBN 978-89-8063-434-7 93320 Copyright ⓒ 2008 by Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the Republic of Korea Knowledge Sharing Program Supporting the Establishment of Vietnam’s 2011-20 Socio-economic Development Strategy April 2010 MINISTRY OF Korea Development STRATEGY AND FINANCE Institute Preface In the 21st century, knowledge is one of the key factors in determining a country’s level of socio-economic development. Based on the recognition Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP) was launched in 2004 by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance of the Republic of Korea and the Korea Development Institute (KDI) in an effort to contribute to the socio-economic development in the development partner countries by sharing Korea’s unique development experiences. The most distinguishing characteristic of the KSP is that it is a demand-driven, participation-oriented consultation project to tackle development issues from the partner country’s perspective and provide policy implications that are not far-reaching but can be practically implemented in the partner country’s environment. The first Knowledge Sharing Program with Vietnam was successfully implemented in 2004. One of the great achievements was its contribution to the successful establishmentof the Vietnam Development Bank in 2006. Vietnam has been selected again in 2009 as the first strategic development partner country for KSP, and this is the start of a three-year project which will end in 2011. The principal objective of the first year’s KSP for Vietnam is to provide policy recommendation for the establishment of Vietnam’s 2011-20 socio- economic development strategy by conducting a comprehensive joint research on four key policy areas: 1) macroeconomic policies; 2) monetary and financial policies; 3) industrial technology development policies; and 4) enterprise policies. I would like to take this opportunity to express my heartfelt gratitude to Project Manager Dr. Sang-Woo Nam, Sector-Project Managers Dr. Il-Chong Nam, Dr. Hyunsik Kim, Dr. Joon-Kyung Kim, Dr. Chinhee Hahn, and Dr. Joonghae Suh, and all those consultants who have participated in the project for their efforts in successfully completing the 2009-2010 KSP for Vietnam. I also thank Program Directors Dr.Wonhyuk Lim and Mr. Taihee Lee, and Project Coordinator Mr. Tae-Jin Joo, all of whom are members of the Center for International Development at KDI, for their dedication and contribution to the project. Lastly my special thanks go to the Development Strategy Institute and the Ministry of Planning and Investment of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam for their active support and cooperation. Upon this occasion of publishing the results of the 2009-2010 KSP for Vietnam, I sincerely hope that this year’s project results would be of great value to the Governmentof Vietnam in establishing its 2011-20 socio-economic development strategy and be utilized to help Vietnam achieve its goal to become an industrialized middle-income country by 2020. The policy recommendations in this report, however, are based on the Korea’s development experiences, and are solely the opinions and recommendations of the authors. Oh-Seok Hyun President Korea Development Institute Executive Summary Sang-Woo Nam (KDI School of Public Policy and Management) The Vietnamese economy, which has pursued the Doi Moi policy since around the end of the 1980s, continued to grow at about 7% over the last 20 years. In 2010, its gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to surpass 100 billion dollars while per capita GDP would be over 1,200 dollars. Together with the growth of the economy, its productive structure has also continually been improved: the share of industry in GDP has increased steadily, while the state sector has shown a declining trend. To a large extent, this performance would be attributed to the institutional and policy reforms towards a more matured market economy. There has been progress towards a more level playing field for the economic activities of the state and private sectors and markets for productive factors such as finance, labor and land have increasingly been playing an important role. Recent performance of the Vietnamese economy suggests that it has made a takeoff so that the economy is expected to grow at a steady pace. Nevertheless, it may be a challenging task for the economy to grow as fast as, or even faster than, in recent past in the next 10 or 20 years. The primary industry and the state sector still play a significant role in the economy. The share of agriculture, forestry and fishery in GDP declined modestly from 24.5% in 2000 to 22.1% in 2008. Although the role of the private sector has increased rather fast in industry (mining, manufacturing and construction), the share of non-state sector in GDP (excluding the state sector and foreign direct investment) showed a slight decrease from 48.2% to 47.0% during the same period. Challenges facing the Vietnamese economy may be summarized into three broad categories. The first is how to enhance its efficiency and international competitiveness, which is closely related to the growth potential of the economy. The technological capacity and skills of Vietnamese industrial human resources remain very low, and so do the entrepreneurship and managerial capacity of corporate executives and managers. University education and vocational