Labour Market Intelligence Briefing VACANCY DATA & TRENDS

LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING VACANCY DATA & TRENDS

DATA PUBLISHED UP TO 22ND JULY 2021

www.growthco.uk Classified: Public ECONOMIC, LABOUR MARKET & SURVEY SUMMARY CONTEXT

➢ Last week’s figures from the ONS (Office of National Statistics) point to a continued strong recovery in the labour market. Vacancies were at their highest ever level in June 2021 (962,000), with a bounce-back in hiring in previously shut down sectors adding to a sustained recovery in hiring in the broader economy. ➢ The PAYE measure of employment also saw remarkably strong growth in June (up by 360,000) closing more than half of the outstanding ‘gap’ in employment and with young people particularly benefiting. ➢ However, the Labour Force Survey (LFS)data was more subdued and the Institute for Employment Studies (IES) suggests that we should take the PAYE figures with a small pinch of salt. In particular, the LFS suggests that employment overall was recovering less strongly through March-May – with self-employment still down by three quarters of a million on pre- crisis levels, continued large falls inpart-time work and signs of a stagnating recovery for women, especially. ➢ Nonetheless, there do remain some grounds for cautious optimism, with the most recent single-month LFS estimates very strong (for May) and the real possibility that we’ll see LFS estimates start to grow more strongly in the coming months as they ‘catch up’ with otherdata. (Source). Vacancies ➢ Nationally, live job adverts on Adzuna increased again this week and remain comfortably over1m. ➢ In GM once again the city of Manchester leads the way with neatly 37, 750 vacancies. ➢ IT is still the sector showing by far the largest number of live job advertisement with over 7,700 jobs on offer. Sales and Accounting and Finance are the next largest sectors recruiting with over 4,000 opportunities in each sector. However, it is noticeable that vacancy numbers in hospitality and catering in GM are increasing. On July 21st there over 2,000 openings in the sector across GM. This is consistent with the recent BBC article: The UK's hospitality industry is experiencing rising worker shortages, with job vacancies at their highest levelssince records began. Industry bodies say one in five workers have left the sector during the coronavirus pandemic, with Covid and Brexit often cited as exacerbating the problem. For staff that have returned to theirroles, the so-called "pingdemic" has led to furthershortages due to workers being told to isolate by the NHS app. Yet, since 2017, vacancies in the industry have been consistently at a staggering 90,000 or more. Despite problems caused by Brexit and COVID-19 some in the sector say a major contributor to the staffing problem could be the hospitality industry itself - with its perceived culture of very long working-hours and low wages putting applicants off, and driving people away. (Source).

2 Classified: Public IES LABOUR MARKET STATISTICS (JULY 2021)

Unemployment remains above pre-crisis levels at 4.8% but fell slightly on the quarter. The IES continue to believe that the unemployment rate may be at or close to its peak. Of far more concern however is continued growth in long-term unemployment, which is up by 70% over the last year – the highest rate of growth since the data series began in 1992, and now at its highest level since spring 2016 (at 560,000). Economic inactivity also remains elevated – up by over 400,000 overall and being driven by strong growth in economically inactive students alongside continued very high levels of inactivity due to long-term ill health. It is broadly unchanged at 21.3% this month, up by just over a percentage point on pre-crisis. Looking ahead, with the numbers on furlough falling and vacancies rising, the IES believe it is even clearer than in recent months that we need to refocus our effort on helping those who are out of work to get (back) into work, as well as working much better with employers to fill their vacancies. At the same time, employers will increasingly need to ensure that they are designing and recruiting into jobs inways that will enable groups like students, carers and olderpeople to take them up. While the PAYE data is very positive, the LFS data continues to tell a story of a far more subdued recovery – with the headline employment rate for March to May 2021 standing at 74.8%, virtually unchanged on the quarter and well below its pre-crisis peak (76.6%). The apparent differences between the LFS and PAYE data are partly explained by the fact that the PAYE figures exclude self-employment (covered in the next section) and by the fact that the LFS only covers the period to May 2021 while PAYE data includes June. The most recent single-month estimate of employment in the LFS, for example, suggests growth in employment of around 200,000 compared with April – which is broadly in line with the PAYE estimate. However, the LFS monthly estimates are not ‘official’ statistics and jump around significantly due to sampling variability (as the Figure opposite shows). So, we can be hopeful, but not certain, that the LFS will start to ‘catch up’ with the PAYE estimates. The other main reason why LFS and PAYE data tell different stories is that self-employment is not recorded in PAYE figures, and has fallen significantly during the crisis with little sign of recovery. Self- employment has fallen by 750,000 during the crisis (15%) and is broadly unchanged over the most recent quarter. (Source).

3 Classified: Public WEEK TO WEEK COMPARISON OF VACANCY LEVELS

Area Vacancies w/e 23.07.21 Vacancies w/e 16.07. 21 Numerical Change Percentage Change Change

Greater Manchester 49,818 49,519 299 0.6% ▲

Bolton 958 916 42 4.6% ▲

Bury 669 664 5 0.7% ▲

Manchester 35,712 35,254 458 1.3% ▲

Oldham 1,709 1,757 -48 -2.7% ▼

Rochdale 1,159 1,175 -16 -1.4% ▼

Salford 1,242 1,221 21 1.7% ▲

Stockport 3,031 2,953 78 2.6% ▲

Tameside* 614 583 31 5.3% ▲

Trafford* 1,809 1,697 112 6.0% ▲

Wigan 2,119 2,140 -21 -0.9% ▼

4 Classified: Public JOB VACANCY INDEX FROM ADZUNA – UK, GM AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES UK

➢ On July 21st there were 1,191,770 live job ads* (up from 1,188,624 on July 15th 2021) in the UK. This represents a 191.8% year-on-year change for UK vacancies. ➢ The average national salary is £33,975. This shows a -2.7% year-on-year decrease in salary levels. *Please note that these figures show job posting to job-boards tracked by Adzuna and may include some duplicate job listings.

Greater Manchester

➢ Currently there are 49,818 live job ads (up from 49,519 on July 15th 2021) in Greater Manchester, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Nearly 36,000 of these live vacancies are in the city of Manchester. ➢ Most live job ads in Greater Manchester are for IT Jobs, Sales Jobs, Accounting and Finance Jobs, Trades and Construction Jobs and Teaching Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Greater Manchester are Checkatrade, The Hut Group, Tesco, Bidvine and Reps.co.uk. ➢ The average Greater Manchester salary is £34,197. Salaries in Greater Manchester have gone up 2.3% year-on-year while the national annual change is -2.7%.

➢ Currently there are 958 live job ads (up from 916 on July 15th 2021) in Bolton, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Of these vacancies in Bolton 78 are in Horwich and 70 are in Farnworth. ➢ Most live job ads in Bolton are for Trades and Construction Jobs, Logistics and Warehousing Jobs and Teaching Jobs . ➢ The top companies hiring in Bolton are Checkatrade, Bidvine and Reps.co.uk.

Bury

➢ Currently there are 669 live job ads (up from 664 on July 15th 2021) in Bury, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Of these vacancies in Bury are in 88 are in Heap Bridge and 58 are in Ramsbottom. ➢ Most live job ads in Bury are for Teaching Jobs, IT Jobs and Accounting and Finance Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Bury are Bidvine, Checkatrade and Reps.co.uk.

➢ Currently there are 35,712 live job ads (up from 35,524 on July 15th 2021 ) in Manchester, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Of the vacancies in Manchester 1,684 are in Rusholme; 320 are in Hulme; and 218 are on the Manchester Science Park. ➢ Most live job ads in Manchester are for IT Jobs, Sales Jobs and Accounting and Finance Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Manchester are The Hut Group, Checkatrade, Tesco, Accenture and PwC.

Oldham

➢ Currently there are 1,709 live job ads (down from 1,757 on July 15th 2021) in Oldham, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Of the vacancies in Oldham 93 are in Royton and 87 are in Chadderton. ➢ Most live job ads in Oldham are for Teaching Jobs, Logistics and Warehousing and Trades and Construction Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Oldham are Checkatrade, Bidvine and Yodel/Home Delivery Network.

➢ Currently there are 1,159 live job ads (down from 1,175 on July 15th 2021) in Rochdale, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Of the vacancies in Rochdale 65 are in Healey and 31 are in Milnrow. ➢ Most live job ads in Rochdale are for Logistics and Warehousing Jobs, Engineering Jobs and Healthcare and Nursing Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Rochdale are Checkatrade, Castle View Group and Exemplar Health Care.

Salford

➢ Currently there are 1,242 live job ads (up from 1,221 on July 15th 2021) in Salford, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Of the vacancies in Salford 423 are in Irlams O’ Th’ Heights and 56 are in Higher Broughton. ➢ Most live job ads in Salford are for IT Jobs, Teaching Jobs and Accounting and Finance Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Salford are ARCADIS UK, CGI International and the University of Salford.

➢ Currently there are 3,031 live job ads (up from 2,953 on July 15th 2021) in Stockport, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Of the vacancies in Stockport 84 are in Reddish and 75 are in Disley. ➢ Most live job ads in Stockport are for Social Work Jobs, IT Jobs and Sales Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Stockport are Checkatrade, Tesco and Bidvine.

Tameside (Ashton-under-Lyne)

➢ Currently there are 489 live job ads (up from 462 on July 15th 2021) in Ashton-Under-Lyne, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Most live job ads in Ashton-Under-Lyne are for Teaching, Trades and Construction Jobs and Hospitality and Catering Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Ashton-Under-Lyne are Checkatrade, Hymans Robertson and Reps.co.uk.

Note: Further work is required to pull in vacancies from other major centres in Tameside.

➢ Currently there are 125 live job ads (up from 121 on July 15th 2021) in Stalybridge, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Most live job ads in Stalybridge are for Healthcare and Nursing Jobs, Trades and Construction Jobs and Logistics and Warehousing Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Stalybridge are Checkatrade, Tesco and Start Your Own Career.

Note: Further work is required to pull in vacancies from other major centres in Tameside.

Trafford (Altrincham)

➢ Currently there are 1,284 live job ads (up from 1,214 on July 15th 2021) in Altrincham, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Of the vacancies in Altrincham 65 are in Hale and 40 are in Dunham Town. ➢ Most live job ads in Altrincham are for Accounting and Finance Jobs, Sales Jobs and Hospitality and Catering Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Altrincham are Checkatrade, The Hut Group, and Recruitment Panda. Note: Further work is required to pull in vacancies from other major centres in Trafford.

➢ Currently there are 525 live job ads (up from 483 on July 15th 2021) in Sale, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. ➢ Most live job ads in Sale are for Sales Jobs, Healthcare and Nursing Jobs and Teaching Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Sale are Trafford Housing Trust, Checkatrade and Marriott Hotels.

Note: Further work is required to pull in vacancies from other major centres in Trafford.

Wigan

➢ Currently there are 2,119 live job ads (down from 2,140 on July 15th 2021) in Wigan, out of 1,191,770 jobs nationally. In addition, there are 103 current live vacancies (down from 105 on July 15th 2021) in Leigh not included in the Wigan total. ➢ Of the vacancies in Wigan 81 are in Ashton-in-Makerfield and 55 are in Swinley. ➢ Most live job ads in Wigan are for Logistics and Warehousing Jobs, Teaching Jobs and Engineering Jobs. In Leigh most live jobs are in Healthcare and Nursing Jobs and Hospitality and Catering Jobs. ➢ The top companies hiring in Wigan are Checkatrade, Wigan Council and Tesco.

Please note vacancy trackers used in this report can on occasion pick up multiple records of vacancies and this can lead to an inflated number of vacancies being recorded in certain sectors. 11 Classified: Public OTHER EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS RESEARCH / BLOGS UPDATE ➢ Business Live. Virgin Media creates 100 Manchester jobs as ultrafast network rollout continues https://www.business-live.co.uk/economic-development/virgin-media-creates-100-manchester-21094670

➢ Deloitte. The Future of Work in a post-pandemic world https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/HumanCapital/gx-the-future-of-work-post-covid-19-poc.pdf

➢ IFS. What does the changing economic outlook mean for the Spending Review? https://ifs.org.uk/publications/15542

➢ Business Live. Ryanair announces 20 new Liverpool and Manchester https://www.business-live.co.uk/economic-development/ryanair-announces-20-new-liverpool-21104195

➢ Economics Observatory. Will people go back to the office after the pandemic? https://www.economicsobservatory.com/will-people-go-back-to-the-office-after-the-pandemic

➢ Sky News. Government considering raising National Insurance to fund social care reforms - but proposals won't now come until after summer https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-considering-raising-national-insurance-to-fund-social-care-reforms-12359617

➢ The Independent. Freedom may damage the economy, not help it – we must respect the risks around us https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/freedom-may-economy-covid-b1887792.html

➢ Staffing Industry Analysts. UK Graduate Jobs triple year-on-year but remain below pre-pandemic level https://www2.staffingindustry.com/eng/Editorial/Daily-News/UK-Graduate-jobs-triple-year-on-year-but-still-below-pre-pandemic-levels-58419

➢ BBC. Is there a solution to the hospitality staff crisis? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57817775

➢ Sky News. 'Fire and rehire' battle to intensify amid push to make the employment practice illegal https://news.sky.com/story/fire-and-rehire-battle-to-intensify-amid-push-to-make-the-employment-practice-illegal-12358144

➢ The Guardian. HGV licence fast-track won’t stop UK food shortages, industry warns https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/20/hgv-license-fast-track-wont-stop-uk-food-shortages-industry-warns 12