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Süss Microtec Süss MicroTec Germany/ Technology Hardware & Equipment Post results note Investment Research 13 October 2014 Accumulate Preliminary release signals SMHN being on track for FY14e from Hold U/g to ‘Accumulate’/PT EUR 5 (‘Hold/under rev.’/PT EUR 8) Share price: EUR 3.99 The facts: SMHN released preliminary sales for 3Q14 of EUR 25.5m which closing price as of 10/10/2014 Target price: EUR 5.00 compares to our model assumption of EUR 27.4m while the order intake was said from Target Price: EUR 8.00 to be EUR 29m. We consider the latter in line with our expectation of guidance mid- point of EUR 30m. Please remember that SMHN gave a – at that time disappointing - Reuters/Bloomberg SMHNn.DE/SMH GY outlook of EUR 25-35m for fresh bookings. Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 178,544 The order backlog came to EUR 82.2m and was thus higher compared to our Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 694.55 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 9.15 model assumptions of EUR 80.3m due to the lower sales in the quarter and Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.93 potentially due to fx. Abs. perf. 1 mth -26.0% Management kept the guidance unchanged for 4Q14 forecasting new bookings Abs. perf. 3 mth -53.0% amounting to EUR 30-40m. For FY14e, the revenue should come in at EUR 135- Abs. perf. 12 mth -44.4% 145m while the EBIT should achieve a slightly positive figure. Market capitalisation (EURm) 76 Our analysis: Since SMHN has not provided earnings figures, we cannot fully assess Current N° of shares (m) 19 the quarter, however, as regards operating profits, the company has done well Free float 100% recently due to a low OPEX base. The problem remains still the lack of growth and 3Q14 did not appear to help here although bookings were in line with our forecast in Key financials (EUR) 12/13 12/14e 12/15e Sales (m) 135 135 143 principle. EBITDA (m) (13) 8 9 We have revised our top line projections to be on the safe side as can be seen below. EBITDA margin nm 5.8% 6.5% EBIT (m) (19) 3 5 We have assumed a cautious view on the competitive situation in the Litho segment EBIT margin nm 2.1% 3.5% and expect now a more gradual 3D ramp in the Bonder division. At the same time, the Net Profit (adj.)(m) (3) 2 3 management should focus on OPEX discipline which leads to higher earnings in our ROCE -5.1% 2.5% 3.8% model for FY14e and FY15e while due to the lower revenue base, our EBIT estimates Net debt/(cash) (m) (36) (29) (31) Net Debt Equity -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 decline significantly as of FY16e. In conjunction with a more cautious view on working Net Debt/EBITDA 2.7 -3.7 -3.3 capital, but better financing costs our new DCF based PT comes to EUR 5 (EUR 8). Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) (100.8) 75.5 241.6 EV/Sales 0.7 0.4 0.3 Estimate changes in EUR m FY14 old FY14 new change FY15 old FY15 new change FY16 old FY16 new change EV/EBITDA nm 6.5 5.3 EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm 6.5 5.3 Sales 140.0 135.0 -4% 150.0 142.5 -5% 182.0 156.0 -14% EV/EBIT nm 17.4 9.9 Rep. EBIT 1.5 2.9 93% 4.4 4.9 12% 15.5 9.5 -39% P/E (adj.) nm 42.0 23.6 EBIT margin 1.1% 2.1% 110bp 2.9% 3.5% 50bp 8.5% 6.1% -240bp P/BV 1.1 0.7 0.7 Reported net profit 0.8 1.8 127% 2.8 3.2 16% 10.4 6.4 -38% OpFCF yield 17.8% -9.4% 1.5% Rep. EPS [EUR]* 0.04 0.10 150% 0.15 0.17 13% 0.54 0.34 -37% Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sources: equinet estimates EPS (adj.) (0.15) 0.10 0.17 BVPS 5.72 5.82 5.99 Conclusion & Action: The preliminary release signals that booking-wise, SMHN is DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 on track to achieve the guidance and also the full year targets should be met – the sales outlook probably at the lower end. Thus, the release today might not be regarded as a major event, but the company was obviously able to regain some confidence. The current share levels of around EUR 4 are well backed by c. EUR 1.50 vvdsvdvsdy 10 net cash (equinet estimate per year end’14) and about EUR 1 per share in real estate. 9 8 Although significantly delayed – the 3D integration opportunity still exists, but the 7 respective visibility appears to be low while for the bulk of the operating business, we 6 expect SMHN to stay profitable on the group level. Consequently, from a pure 5 valuation point of view, an investment appears attractive and the strong share price 4 drop of the recent past allows us to upgrade the recommendation to ‘Accumulate’ 3 Sep 13 Okt 13 Nov 13 Dez 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mrz 14 Apr 14 Mai 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Okt 14 (‘Hold/under review’). We might become more positive on SMHN once we are able to Source: Factset identify a real trigger. Please also remember that SMHN is still on the search for a SUESS MICROTEC Tec Dax (Rebased) Shareholders: new CEO which might take a while. Analyst(s): Adrian Pehl, CFA +49 69 58997 438 [email protected] For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report For company description please see summary table footnote Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”), Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) Süss MicroTec Discounted Cash Flow model Phase I Phase II Phase III EUR m 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Sales 135.0 142.5 156.0 167.0 176.6 182.8 189.2 195.8 202.7 209.7 213.9 Sales growth n/m 5.6% 9.5% 7.1% 5.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 2.0% EBIT 2.9 4.9 9.5 13.0 16.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.9 EBIT margin 2.1% 3.5% 6.1% 7.8% 9.2% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.5% Tax (1.0) (1.7) (3.1) (4.2) (5.0) (4.2) (4.4) (4.5) (4.7) (4.8) (4.9) Normative tax rate EBIT 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% 32.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% NOPAT 1.9 3.3 6.3 8.8 11.2 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.0 Depreciation 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 in % of Sales 3.6% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% Capex (4.1) (4.3) (4.7) (5.0) (5.3) (5.0) (5.2) (5.4) (5.6) (5.8) (4.8) in % of Sales 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% Provision delta 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 in % of Sales 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Change in working capital (10.8) (3.2) (5.7) (4.6) (4.0) (2.6) (2.7) (2.8) (2.9) (3.0) (0.4) in % of Sales -8.0% -2.2% -3.6% -2.8% -2.3% -1.4% -1.4% -1.4% -1.4% -1.4% -0.2% Other current assets delta 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 in % of Sales 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Free Cash Flow -6.8 1.4 1.4 4.5 7.3 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 11.0 FCF growth nm nm -5.1% 230.4% 59.8% -6.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 46.0% Present Value FCF -6.7 1.3 1.1 3.3 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.1 56.3 PV Phase I 3.9 MCap 135.5 Targ. equity ratio 91.7% PV Phase II 17.9 Risk premium 4.00% Beta 1.52 PV Phase III 56.3 Risk free rate 4.50% WACC 10.07% EV 2011e 105.4 Total present value 78.1 EV 2012e 99.6 EV/EBIT 2012e 20.17 + capital increase/share buy back 0.0 EV 2013e 106.3 EV/EBIT 2013e 11.22 + associates 0.0 - market value of minorities 0.0 Sensitivity Growth rate Phase III + cash and liquid assets 37.1 Analysis 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% - interest bearing debt* 17.8 9.56% 5.70 5.27 5.47 5.70 5.97 Implied Mcap 97.5 9.82% 5.49 5.09 5.28 5.49 5.73 Number of shares 19.1 WACC 10.07% 5.29 4.93 5.10 5.29 5.52 10.32% 5.11 4.77 4.93 5.11 5.31 Implied value per share 5.10 10.57% 4.94 4.63 4.77 4.94 5.13 *) including pension provisions Source: equinet Page 2 Süss MicroTec Süss MicroTec: Summary tables PROFIT & LOSS (EURm) 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Sales 175 164 135 135 143 156 Cost of Sales & Operating Costs -149 -147 -135 -127 -133 -142 Non Recurrent Expenses/Income -1.4 1.8 -13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 24.9 18.6 -13.4 7.8 9.3 13.6 EBITDA (adj.)* 26.3 16.8 -0.2 7.8 9.3 13.6 Depreciation -2.1 -2.2 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 EBITA 22.8 16.4 -16.0 5.2 6.5 10.7 EBITA (adj)* 24.2 14.6 -2.8 5.2 6.5 10.7 Amortisations and Write Downs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 of which PPA amortisation 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 EBIT 18.6 11.7 -19.4 2.9 4.9 9.5 EBIT (adj.)* 20.0 10.5 -5.4 3.7 5.7 10.3 Net Financial Interest 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 Other Financials 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Non Recurrent Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings Before Tax (EBT) 19.6 11.8 -19.6 2.8 4.9 9.6 Tax -5.8 -4.1 3.6 -1.0 -1.7 -3.2 Tax rate 29.5% 35.2% 18.3% 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% Discontinued Operations 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minorities -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Profit (reported) 13.5 9.1 -16.0 1.8 3.2 6.4 Net Profit (adj.) 14.5 7.3 -2.8 1.8 3.2 6.4 CASH FLOW (EURm) 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC 18.4 14.7 -8.3 7.7 8.6 11.5 Change in Net Working Capital -16.6 -16.0 33.6 -10.8 -3.2 -5.7 Cash Flow from Operations 1.8 -1.3 25.3 -3.1 5.4 5.8 Capex -3.6 -4.2 -3.3 -4.1 -4.3 -4.7 Net Financial Investments 0.5 -6.0 -8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow -1.4 -11.5 13.5 -7.2 1.1 1.2 Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (incl.
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