From mountain to sea

Connected & Cohesive Communities

Summary Statistical Report

October 2018

Craig Watson & Hilary Birnie Council & Partnership Analysts Policy, Performance & Improvement Customer Communication & Improvement Business Services

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ...... 3 ‘OUTCOMES SPECTRUM’ ...... 5 LOCALITIES SUMMARIES ...... 6 BANFF & MACDUFF – STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 7 – STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 8 – STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 9 APPENDIX A ...... 10

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

• The areas chosen as Localities for the purposes of Locality Planning strategies remain pertinent. Therefore, Banff/Macduff, Fraserburgh, and Peterhead continue to present arguably the best opportunities to bridge the ‘socio-economic gap’. They could be described as ‘Tier One Areas’. Relatively few datasets have materially changed since the Locality Planning seminars were conducted in February/March 2017. Most of the presentation data was based on SIMD 2016 (which has remained static) and the Improvement Service’s Community Planning Outcomes Profile (CPOP) tool, which has been partly updated to reflect newer data in respect of a couple of indicators. The Improvement Service has advised that the CPOP tool will be updated “in the next few weeks”1.

• , South, and possibly may be areas to keep in mind during any future Locality Planning process. While these areas tend to experience better outcomes relative to Peterhead and Fraserburgh (in particular), there are tentative signs that a couple of indicators are worsening. These 3 areas could be described as ‘Tier Two Areas’ – i.e. areas to watch.

• Huntly would probably be the prime candidate out of the 3 mentioned above to advance to the ‘Tier One’ category. Latest data show the area accrued the highest proportion of developmental concerns at 27-30 months2 in . The area also has one of the highest proportions of children in low income families outside of Peterhead and Fraserburgh; and a relatively large proportion of people are employment deprived. The median weekly income within certain Data Zones is also among the lowest in Aberdeenshire.

Conversely, however, a positive trajectory is evident in relation to school leavers entering a positive destination and the proportion of individuals in receipt of out-of-work benefits.

• Turriff’s child poverty rate should be closely watched, as should the area’s Early Mortality rate. CPOP’s modelled data tool suggests Turriff’s child poverty rate will be among the highest in Aberdeenshire by 2021, reaching 17% (compared to an average of 7% for Aberdeenshire, and 14% for Scotland as a whole). If such a prediction materialises, Turriff will be ranked third out of Aberdeenshire’s 59 Intermediate Zones, behind Fraserburgh Harbour & Broadsea and Peterhead Harbour.

The tool also suggests Turriff’s Early Mortality rate will be among the highest in Aberdeenshire by 2021, ranking it just outside the bottom 25% in Scotland. It may be the case that road traffic deaths were a factor in the prediction, although that has not been established as fact.

• This report draws on data from a total of 53 indicators. The indicators were divided into 7 broad themes:

1. Accessibility; 2. Education / Training; 3. Environment; 4. Health / Lifestyle;

1 An email to that effect was sent & received on 10/10/2018 2 During 27-30 month reviews, the health professional (normally a health visitor) assesses children’s developmental status and records the outcome (e.g. no concern, concern newly suspected as a result of the review, or concern or disorder already known prior to the review) against each of nine developmental domains (social, emotional, behavioural, attention, speech language & communication, gross motor, fine motor, vision and hearing)

5. Housing 6. Income / Employment / Financial Status 7. Social

A number of data sources were utilised including, but not limited to, SIMD 20163, CPOP4, ScotPHO5, Transport Scotland, and DWP. Data from ScotPHO CPOP, and DWP have been updated since the Locality Planning seminars early last year but these updates, generally speaking, did not materially affect the results. See Appendix A for a list of indicators used per theme.

• The indicators were chosen because of their perceived relevance in identifying socio-economic gaps between areas. An attempt was made to pick indicators most closely associated with ‘Connected and Cohesive Communities’. The difficulty with statistical data is that, in some cases, certain indicators can be several years old (e.g. those derived from the 2011 Census). Many indicators also tend to be updated infrequently, no more than once a year; and some are barely proxies for the matter at hand (e.g. indicative of ‘Connected and Cohesive communities’). That notwithstanding, they are among the most robust datasets available.

• A potential future workstream could include efforts to systematically capture ‘social capital’ (or similar). If such an indicator were captured at, for example, postcode level then it may be possible to determine correlations between social capital and other indicators at an Intermediate Zone6 (i.e. town) level. These could then be used as proxies for social capital on an ongoing basis.

‘Outcomes Spectrum’

The next page of the report presents a high-level overview of the situation as it pertains to the 53 indicators and the 7 themes on which the report is based. Efforts were made to highlight priority – and potential priority – areas in as simple a way as possible bearing in mind the range of data captured during the compilation phase.

Essentially, the top half of the page below highlights Aberdeenshire’s ‘top-ranked’ areas, i.e. areas in which residents generally experience consistently good outcomes across the various themes, and the bottom half of the page highlights ‘bottom-ranked’ areas.

• Generally speaking, ‘top-ranked’ areas, while performing well in relation to most of the 7 themes, ranked comparatively poorly with regards to accessibility indicators. The opposite is the case for ‘bottom-ranked’ areas. In other words, relative high performers in the ‘Accessibility’ theme also tended to be the areas that experienced the greatest socio-economic disadvantages. Places like Peterhead and Fraserburgh appear to be well served in relation to local amenities and internet / broadband infrastructure, yet a proportion of residents in these areas are statistically more inclined to experience poorer socio-economic outcomes than their rural counterparts. A large portion of the latter group, it should be noted, experience some of the best outcomes in the Scotland. Indeed, Aberdeenshire as a whole is among the least deprived areas in the country.

3 SIMD 2016 – Scottish Indices of Multiple Deprivation, the official dataset used by the Scottish Government to identify areas of deprivation 4 CPOP - Community Outcomes Profile Tool, administered by the Improvement Service 5 ScotPHO – Scottish Public Health Observatory, a useful dataset with a health / lifestyle bias 6 Intermediate Zones are a composite geography created from Data Zone aggregates and largely fitting within council area boundaries. They have been created in order to provide a suitable small area geography for the release of potentially sensitive data where Data Zone level data may prove to be disclosive. ‘OUTCOMES SPECTRUM’ Based on 53 indicators across 7 themes – Accessibility; Education; Environment; Health; Housing; Income; and Social. See Appendix A for a breakdown of the themes and indicators. Top Three Areas

Other areas include: TOP 3 AREAS (3) Westhill Central (2) Garlogie & Elrick (1) Durno-Chapel of TOP• Dunecht, 3 AREAS Durris & DrumoakOutcomes • Westhill North & South • Fetteresso, Netherley & Catter Accessibility Accessibility TOPAccessibility 3 AREAS • West Social Education Social Education • Social Education • Blackburn • • Ythsie Income Environment Income Environment Income Environment • Ellon East • Newmacher & Fintray Housing Health Housing Health Housing Health • Kintore

All of Aberdeenshire’s 59 Intermediate Zones fall within this spectrum. They were ranked based on 53 indicators across 7 themes. Bottom Three Areas Other areas include: (1) Peterhead Harbour (2) Fraserburgh Harbour & Broadsea (3) Fraserburgh Lochpots • Banff • Fraserburgh Central-Academy TOPAccessibility 3 AREAS Accessibility Accessibility • Peterhead Bay • Huntly Social Education Social Education Social Education • Inverurie South • • Cruden Income Environment Income Environment Income Environment • & King Edward • , Fordyce & Cornhill Housing Health Housing Health Housing Health • Macduff • Turriff

All 53 indicators have been combined and each area individually ranked to produce the data presented here. The closer the dark shape is to the centre of the diagram, the poorer the relative ranking per theme. It’s interesting to note that the top-ranked area (Durno-Chapel of Garioch) ranks comparatively poorly to other areas in Aberdeenshire with regards to accessibility indicators. This is largely due to relatively high drive times to various local amenities by car and public transport (although the difference in actual minutes is not that stark). And given the rural nature of some of the top-ranked areas they are relatively less well-served in terms of Superfast Broadband availability. The opposite appears to be the case with regards to those in the bottom-ranked areas – relatively well serviced in terms of accessibility indicators but poorer outcomes experienced across the other themes.

LOCALITIES SUMMARIES

The following few pages provide a statistical overview of the 3 localities in Aberdeenshire (for the purposes of locality planning). These localities are:

Banff & Macduff Fraserburgh

Peterhead Page 7 of 11 BANFF & MACDUFF – STATISTICAL OVERVIEW

Data Zone Boundaries Headline Indicators

4.1 Average drive time (in minutes) to various local amenities via car & public transport. This compares favourably to Aberdeenshire (8.3 minutes). SIMD 2016

12% Population: Approximate % of people who were income deprived. The Aberdeenshire average

per Intermediate Zone is 6%. SIMD 2016

8,224 13% Approximate % of children living in poverty. This is a higher proportion than (2016) Aberdeenshire (7%). ScotPHO

99% Approximate % of properties with Superfast Broadband availability. This compares favourably to Aberdeenshire as a whole (76%). OFCOM

Thematic Overview (53 indicators) Macduff has an estimated population of 4,174 (2016). Fishing and associated services are major employers in the area. Macduff is an independent town within Aberdeenshire but it’s close proximity to The 7 Themes Ranked Banff (under 2 miles) means that it relies on Banff for some services and resources. Banff lies 1.7 (Latest Snapshot) miles further along the coast from Macduff. It has a population of 4,050 (216). It is an important administrative and service centre for North Aberdeenshire and is a popular tourist and visitor Accessibility destination .

The ‘spider’ diagram to the right indicates that these areas, when combined, rank relatively poorly with regards to all themes apart from ‘Accessibility’. This is largely due to the fact that local amenities (e.g. Social Education / Training supermarkets, petrol stations, GP surgeries, schools, etc.) may be arrived at in relatively quick time, both by car and by public transport (about 4.1 minutes on average from a Data Zone’s central point).

The yet-to-be-published Town Centre Health Checks reinforces the statistical data to some extent, stating that “[Banff’s] town centre provides most of the necessary services and shops, as well as cultural facilities and soft landscaping and infrastructure”. Macduff’s town centre was deemed to be Income / Employment Environment less ‘healthy’ in that respect. However, there is limited public transport available to bring people in / Financial Status from residential areas and nearby villages leading to increased reliance on other modes of transport. Footfall in Banff – the main retail centre in the area – fell in 2017 to its lowest point since 2011. This could be a result of vacant units in the centre, which could be a consequence of a relatively higher incidence of income deprivation – 11 to 12% of people are income deprived, according to SIMD 2016, Housing Health / Lifestyle compared to just 6% for Aberdeenshire as a whole (based on the average per Intermediate Zone). The average household income is approximately £24,500, some 33% lower than the Aberdeenshire average of £37,000. Dotted line indicates where this location ‘lags behind’ the rest of CPOP modelled data suggests child poverty may be an issue in future years (towards 2021). Aberdeenshire.

The area is relatively well served in terms of the proportion of premises with Superfast Broadband The closer the black shape is to the middle of the diagram, the availability (99% versus 76% for Aberdeenshire as a whole, according to latest OFCOM data). This worse the comparative ranking relative to Aberdeenshire. may auger well for the area as the shift to digital gathers pace in the years to come. Page 8 of 11 FRASERBURGH – STATISTICAL OVERVIEW

Data Zone Boundaries Headline Indicators

4.4 Average drive time (in minutes) to various local amenities via car & public transport. This compares favourably to Aberdeenshire (8.3 minutes). SIMD 2016

Population: 12% Approximate % of people who were income deprived. The Aberdeenshire average

per Intermediate Zone is 6%. SIMD 2016

13,180 (2016) 15% Approximate % of children living in poverty. This is a higher proportion than

Aberdeenshire (7%). ScotPHO

96% Approximate % of properties with Superfast Broadband availability. This compares favourably to Aberdeenshire as a whole (76%). OFCOM

Thematic Overview (53 indicators) Fraserburgh is a major service centre in the NE of Scotland with a population of 13,180. The town benefits from a busy commercial harbour and major fishing port. The 7 Themes Ranked (Latest Snapshot) As with Banff & Macduff the spider diagram to the right suggests accessibility is strong point for Fraserburgh. The relatively short drive times to various local amenities, and the broadband infrastructure , are both positives for the area. The bus service connects Fraserburgh to and Accessibility nearby villages and residential areas are well served by public transport. The planned opening of the AWPR in Autumn 2018 will likely improve journey times for hauliers. Social Education / Training According to the yet-to-be-published Town Centre Health Check there are some elements of cultural and community facilities and basic visitor infrastructure supported by large numbers of restaurants and cafes. The town centre has several vacant premises and there is said to be a lack of open space and overall attractiveness is poor.

A high percentage of the workforce are skilled or semiskilled manual workers with many jobs in Income / Employment Environment manufacturing and construction. The average household income in 2017 was £24,898, 67% of the / Financial Status average Aberdeenshire household income (£36,983). Unemployment rate 2.1% - higher than Aberdeenshire 1.4%.

Although certain areas within Fraserburgh experience relatively poor outcomes, some have been improving according to the CPOP data tool (especially Fraserburgh Harbour & Broadsea). This is Housing Health / Lifestyle down to reductions in child poverty, crime, early mortality, and an increase in school pupil attainment – offset to some extent by an increase in emergency admissions. Dotted line indicates where this location ‘lags behind’ the rest of Crime rates per head of population in both Fraserburgh and Peterhead tend to be the highest in Aberdeenshire. Aberdeenshire. This has been the case for a number of years. The closer the black shape is to the middle of the diagram, the Despite progress, it is likely Fraserburgh will remain a focus for regeneration activities and other similar worse the comparative ranking relative to Aberdeenshire. workstreams for years to come.

Page 9 of 11 PETERHEAD – STATISTICAL OVERVIEW

Data Zone Boundaries Headline Indicators

5.1 Average drive time (in minutes) to various local amenities via car & public transport. This compares favourably to Aberdeenshire (8.3 minutes). SIMD 2016

Population: 11% Approximate % of people who were income deprived. The Aberdeenshire average

per Intermediate Zone is 6%. SIMD 2016

19,270 (2016) 14% Approximate % of children living in poverty. This is a higher proportion than

Aberdeenshire (7%). ScotPHO

94% Approximate % of properties with Superfast Broadband availability. This compares favourably to Aberdeenshire as a whole (76%). OFCOM

Thematic Overview (53 indicators)

Peterhead is the largest town in Aberdeenshire. With an estimated population of 19,270 people (2017) The 7 Themes Ranked it is situated 30 miles north of Aberdeen. There are business parks where manufacturing, oil and (Latest Snapshot) primary industries are located. Crucial to the region’s competitiveness and long-term economic well- being is the recently expanded fishing port – one of the largest in Europe. The town falls within the Energetica Corridor/Strategic Growth Corridor and Regeneration Priority Area increasing its potential Accessibility as a n attractive place to live and invest.

Nearby villages and residential areas are well served by public transport, and the planned opening of the AWPR in Autumn 2018 will improve journey times for hauliers. As the spider diagram to the right Social Education / Training demonstrates, indicators used to gauge ‘accessibility’ suggest Peterhead experiences better outcomes in this regard than most other areas in Aberdeenshire. Journey times to a selection of local amenities and broadband provision are relatively good, albeit slightly worse relative to both Banff/Macduff and Fraserburgh.

According to the yet-to-be-published Town Centre Health Check, there are few cultural or community Income / Employment Environment facilities within the town. The shopping centre is well served by a variety of retailers although it has / Financial Status fewer shops per head based on the population it serves. However, it is one of the most vibrant and active town centres in Aberdeenshire.

Peterhead is home to the most used foodbank in Aberdeenshire (2018). This may be one consequence of the relatively high incidence of income and employment deprivation in the area. The Housing Health / Lifestyle average household income in 2017 was £25,793, 30% below the Aberdeenshire average (£36,983). The unemployment rate ran at 2.5% - higher than Aberdeenshire’s equivalent rate of 1.4%. Dotted line indicates where this location ‘lags behind’ the rest of As with Fraserburgh, certain areas in Peterhead tend to experience the highest crime rates per head Aberdeenshire. of population in Aberdeenshire. This is one of the reasons the area doesn’t compare favourably to others in Aberdeenshire in respect of the ‘Environment’ theme as per the spider diagram to the right. The closer the black shape is to the middle of the diagram, the Peterhead, too, will likely remain at the forefront of regeneration activities for years to come. worse the comparative ranking relative to Aberdeenshire.

Page 10 of 11

APPENDIX A

Themes and indicators used in this report

Theme Indicator Source Accessibility Average drive time to a petrol station in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Average drive time to a GP surgery in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Average drive time to a post office in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Average drive time to a primary school in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Average drive time to a retail centre in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Average drive time to a secondary school in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Public transport travel time to a GP surgery in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Public transport travel time to a post office in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Public transport travel time to a retail centre in minutes SIMD 2016 Accessibility Superfast Broadband availability (% premises) OFCOM Accessibility % of People Economically Incative AND No Cars or Vans in Household Census 2011 Accessibility % of People living in 15% most 'access deprived' areas ScotPHO Accessibility % of Young people living in the most access deprived quintile ScotPHO Accessibility Bus Accessibilty Score (Weekday) Transport Scotland Accessibility Bus Accessibilty Score (Weekdend) Transport Scotland Education / Training School pupil attendance SIMD 2016 Education / Training Attainment of school leavers SIMD 2016 Education / Training Working age people with no qualifications (Scotland = 100) SIMD 2016 Education / Training Proportion of people aged 16-19 not in full time education, employment or training SIMD 2016 Education / Training Proportion of 17-21 year olds entering in to full time higher education SIMD 2016 Environment SIMD 2016 crimes per 10,000 pop. SIMD 2016 Environment Crime rate ScotPHO Environment Population within 500 metres of a derelict site ScotPHO Environment Young people living in the most crime deprived quintile ScotPHO Health / Lifestyle Comparative Illness Factor (Scotland = 100) SIMD 2016 Health / Lifestyle Hospital stays related to alcohol misuse (Scotland = 100) SIMD 2016 Health / Lifestyle Hospital stays related to drug misuse (Scotland = 100) SIMD 2016 Health / Lifestyle Standardised mortality ratio (Scotland = 100) SIMD 2016 Health / Lifestyle Modelled Early Mortality Rate 2017-2021 CPOP Health / Lifestyle Proportion of population being prescribed drugs for anxiety, depression or psychosis SIMD 2016 Health / Lifestyle Emergency stays in hospital (Scotland = 100) SIMD 2016 Health / Lifestyle Modelled Emergency Hospital Admissions 2018/19 to 2020/21 CPOP Health / Lifestyle % of people with one or more long-term health condition Census 2011 Health / Lifestyle All-cause mortality among the 15-44 year olds ScotPHO Health / Lifestyle Developmental concerns at 27-30 months ScotPHO Health / Lifestyle Female life expectancy ScotPHO Page 11 of 11

Health / Lifestyle Male life expectancy ScotPHO Health / Lifestyle Maternal obesity ScotPHO Health / Lifestyle Patients (65+) with multiple emergency hospitalisations ScotPHO Housing % of people in households that are overcrowded SIMD 2016 Housing % of people in households without central heating SIMD 2016 Income / Employment / Financial Status % of population Income Deprived SIMD 2016 Income / Employment / Financial Status % of population Employment Deprived SIMD 2016 Income / Employment / Financial Status % of lone parents not in employment Census 2011 Income / Employment / Financial Status % of Children in low income families ScotPHO Income / Employment / Financial Status Modelled Child Poverty Rate 2020/21 CPOP Income / Employment / Financial Status % of Working age population employment deprived ScotPHO Income / Employment / Financial Status % of people receiving out-of-work benefits (modelled) 2020/21 CPOP Income / Employment / Financial Status Median Weekly Income (£) Scotstat Social % of households with adults not in employment and with dependent children Census 2011 Social % of one person households (aged 65 and over) Census 2011 Social % entitled to Carers' Allowance but receive nil payment DWP Social Modelled depopulation rate 2020/21 CPOP