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Hydrological Impact Study of Tipaimukh Dam Project of India on Bangladesh

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Hydrological Impact Study of Tipaimukh Dam Project of India on Bangladesh Hydrological Impact Study of Tipaimukh Dam Project of India on Bangladesh Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) April 2005 Hydrological Impact Study of Tipaimukh Dam of India on Bangladesh Study Team Abu Saleh Khan Md. Sohel Masud Wahid Palash April 2005 Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) Dhaka, Bangladesh About IWM Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) provides world–class services in the field of Water Modelling, Computational Hydraulics & Allied Sciences for improved integrated Water Resources Management. It is a unique organization in the region having sustainable technological capability in developing mathematical models and decision support systems for both surface and ground water and related environment. The applications of IWM modelling tolls cover a wide range of water related aspects such as: flood control, flood forecasting, irrigation and drainage, water resources management, river morphology, salinity and sediment transport, coastal hydraulics, port, coast and estuary management, environmental impact assessment, bridge hydraulics and related infrastructure development. House # 496, Road # 32 New DOHS, Mohakhali Dhaka, Bangladesh Tel: (880-2) 8824590-1, (880-2) 8822105-6 Fax: (880-2)8827901 E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.iwmbd.org Written by: Abu Saleh Khan Md. Sohel Masud Wahid Palash Cover design: Wahid Tareq Design by: Wahid Palash Preface The Hydrological Impact Study of Tipaimukh Dam Project has been completed by Flood Management Division as one of the research projects being carried out by Research and Development (R&D) unit of Institute of Water Modelling (IWM). Bangladesh and India is sharing as many as 54 trans-boundary rivers with each other. Out of those 54 rivers, the respective Indian water management authorities have been heavily modifying annual flows of 48 rivers. The very consequences of those modifications are unprecedented and affecting the overall economy of the country. The experience is already very bad in the northwest and southwest region of Bangladesh due to Farakka Barrage on Ganges River, and it is expected that this will occur more in future for the other rivers also. The Barak River flow alteration and withdrawal by constructing a hydroelectric dam at Tipaimukh and a barrage at Fulertal is one of the recent planning by India. The Barak River is the single largest contributory river to the northeast region of Bangladesh. It is being believed that any large scale water storage and diversion in the upstream of the Barak River will cause an adverse impact in the Surma-Kusiyara River System of the region. The analysis of this study, due to time and resource constraint, has concentrated only on the changes in hydrology of the river system and floodplain-wetland (haor) of Sylhet-Moulvibazar district that would be the most probable case during post-dam condition. A short qualitative assessment has also been done on the morphological impact of the region in response of such changes. In addition, a theoretical discussion has been presented here on the possible dam break aspect, considering the highly seismic instability of the northeast region of India and Bangladesh. The study itself is not the end but the beginning for more comprehensive study at the Government level. I Table of Contents Preface I Table of Contents II List of Tables III List of Figures IV Acronyms and Abbreviations V Acknowledgements VI Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Background of the Study 1 Objective of the Study 4 Methodology 4 Literature Review 6 Chapter 2: Meghna Basin and Northeast Region of Bangladesh 9 Location and Geography 9 The Contemporary State of the Hydrologic System 10 Chapter 3: Data and Information Used in the Study 16 Availability of Data and Information 16 Data and Information Found in DPR on Tipaimukh Project 17 Boundary Generation for Post-Dam Scenario at Amalshid on the Barak River 21 Base or Pre-Dam flow at Tipaimukh and Amalshid 22 Possible release from the Tipaimukh Dam Reservoir 23 Post-dam flow at Amalshid on the Barak River 24 Chapter 4: Hydrological Impacts of Dam on the Surma- 27 Kushiyara River System Impacts of Post-Dam Barak River Flow 27 Change in Monsoon Flow 28 Change in Pre-monsoon Flow 35 Change in Dry Flow 37 II Chapter 5: Impacts of Dam Resulting from Change in 43 Hydrology Moderation of Flood or Detrimental Effects on Floodplain Ecosystem 43 Impact on Floodplain and Haors: From Model Results 43 Impact n Riverine Ecosystem 50 Impacts on Morphology 53 Chapter 6: Other Impacts of Dam: A More Theoretical 55 Examination Dam Break: Its Consequences as a Catastrophic Event 55 What Does the history tell about 55 Ever more possibility of dam break 56 FAP 6 findings 57 Reservoir Induced Seismicity: Facts or False Deduction 58 Chapter 7: Conclusion 60 General 60 Findings 60 Limitation of the Study 64 Last But Not Least 67 Annex 69 Bibliography 69 Tables and Figures 71 List of Tables Table 1.1 Selected hydrological events and corresponding years 5 Table 2.1 Statistical analysis of Amalshid discharge on the Barak River (Period: 1965-2001) 13 Table 3.1 Data related to power generation of Tipaimukh Dam Project 18 Table 3.2 Decade wise ratio, R for each decade of every month between the discharge at Tipaimukh and Amalshid 23 Table 4.1 Peak analysis of different hydrologic events 35 Table 5.1 Pre and post-dam inundation pattern of Sylhet district 44 Table 5.2 Pre and post-dam inundation pattern of Moulvibazar district 46 Table 5.3 Pre and post-dam inundation pattern of the Upper Surma-Kushiyara Project 46 Table 5.4 Pre and post-dam inundation pattern of the Kushiyara-Bardal haor 48 Table 5.5 Pre and post-dam inundation pattern of the Damrir haor 48 Table 5.6 Pre and post-dam inundation pattern of the Kawardighi haor 48 Table 5.7 Pre and post-dam inundation pattern of the Hakaluki haor 50 Table 6.1 Major earthquakes affecting the region 57 Table 7.1 Impact during average monsoon season 61 Table 7.2 Impact during drier year than average monsoon season 61 Table 7.3 Peak flow attenuation 61 III Table 7.4 Impact during average pre-monsoon 62 Table 7.5 Impact during average dry year 62 Table 7.6 Impact during critical dry year for post-dam condition 62 Table 7.7 Impact status on the major perennial and seasonal wetland of Sylhet and Moulvibazar district 63 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Location of Tipaimukh Dam, India 2 Figure 1.2 Proposed location of pick-up barrage at Fulertal 3 Figure 2.1 Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basin 10 Figure 2.2 Meghna Basin and northeast region of Bangladesh 11 Figure 2.3 Discharge hydrograph of Amalshid on the Barak River 12 Figure 3.1 Area-Elevation and Capacity-Elevation curve of Tipamukh Dam Reservoir 17 Figure 3.2 Level vs. Power Generation curve and Tail Water Rating Curve for the reservoir 18 Figure 3.3 DPR suggested or desired rule curve (for June to October) and assumed rule curve for rest of the period 19 Figure 3.4: 10-day average discharge at Tipaimukh on the Barak River 20 Figure 3.5: Possible withdrawal of water from the Barak River for irrigation project in Cachar plain, India 20 Figure 3.6 Meghna Basin and model boundaries of NERM 21 Figure 3.7 Observed Tipaimukh and Amalshid discharge 22 Figure 3.8 Estimated Reservoir inflow and release for post-dam scenario 24 Figure 3.9 In-between river reach of Barak River: from Tipaimuk to Amalshid 24 Figure 3.10 Hydrograph representing the steps of calculation of post-dam Amalshid discharge 26 Figure 4.1 Location of analysis 28 Figure 4.2 Boundary (Amalshid on the Barak River) discharge for pre-dam and post-dam scenarioduring average annual monsoon event 28 Figure 4.3 Hydrological impact on the Kushiyara River during average monsoon season 30 Figure 4.4 Average water level fall and volume reduction in the Surma-Kushiyara river system during average monsoon season 31 Figure 4.5 Hydrological impact on the Surma River during average monsoon season 31 Figure 4.6 Hydrological impact on the Kushiyara River during relatively dry monsoon season 32 Figure 4.7 Average water level fall and volume reduction in the Surma-Kushiyara river system during relatively dry monsoon season 33 Figure 4.8 Hydrological impact on the Surma River during relatively dry monsoon season 33 Figure 4.9 Average water level fall and volume reduction in the Surma-Kushiyara river system during 1 in 5 years monsoon season 34 Figure 4.10 Hydrological impact on the Surma-Kushiyara river system during 1 in 5 years pre-monsoon season 36 Figure 4.11 Average water level rise and volume increase in the Surma-Kushiyara river system during 1 in 5 years pre-monsoon season 37 Figure 4.12 Flow at Amalshid for pre-dam and post-dam condition during a continuous dry spell between 1978 to 1981 37 Figure 4.13 Average change in water level and volume of the Surma-Kushiyara river system during an average dry year 38 Figure 4.14 Desired and actual rule curve of Tipaimukh hydroelectric reservoir operation 39 IV Figure 4.15 Hydrological impact on the Surma-Kushiyara river system during most critical dry season for post-dam condition (next year after pre-dam critical dry season) 40 Figure 4.16 Average change in water level and volume of the Surma-Kushiyara river system during most critical post-dam condition 41 Figure 4.17 Lowest water level profile of the Kushiyara river system (Month 31, 1980) 41 Figure 5.1 Average monsoon year flood map of Sylhet-Moulvibazar district for pre-dam scenario (top) and post-dam scenario (bottom) 45 Figure 5.2 Average monsoon year flood map of right bank of Kushiyara River for pre-dam scenario (top) and post-dam scenario (bottom) 47 Figure 5.3 Average monsoon year flood map of Hakaluki and Hail haor for pre-dam scenario (top) and post-dam scenario (bottom) 49 Figure 5.4 Conceptual representation of physical system involved in an alluvial river system 51 Figure 7.1 Typical release from a rainfed hydropower reservoir (example from Kaptai Dam Project) 66 Figure 7.2 Typical inflow and outflow from the Tipaimukh reservoir that have been used in the present study 66 V Acknowledgement The study team would like to give their thanks to the respective officials of Joint River Commission (JRC) of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) for giving their important suggestion during the conceptualization of this research study.
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