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The Role of Information and Knowledge of Weather Warnings in Marine Access Behavior : a Field Experiment in Coastal Area of Bangladesh

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The Role of Information and Knowledge of Weather Warnings in Marine Access Behavior : a Field Experiment in Coastal Area of Bangladesh Lingnan University Digital Commons @ Lingnan University Lingnan Theses and Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 10-23-2020 The role of information and knowledge of weather warnings in marine access behavior : a field experiment in coastal area of Bangladesh Khan Mehedi HASAN Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.ln.edu.hk/otd Part of the Databases and Information Systems Commons, and the Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing Commons Recommended Citation Hasan, K. M. (2020). The role of information and knowledge of weather warnings in marine access behavior: A field experiment in coastal area of Bangladesh (Doctor's thesis, Lingnan University, Hong Kong). Retrieved from https://commons.ln.edu.hk/otd/102/ This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at Digital Commons @ Lingnan University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Lingnan Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Lingnan University. Terms of Use The copyright of this thesis is owned by its author. Any reproduction, adaptation, distribution or dissemination of this thesis without express authorization is strictly prohibited. All rights reserved. THE ROLE OF INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE OF WEATHER WARNINGS IN MARINE ACCESS BEHAVIOR: A FIELD EXPERIMENT IN COASTAL AREA OF BANGLADESH HASAN KHAN MEHEDI PHD LINGNAN UNIVERSITY 2020 THE ROLE OF INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE OF WEATHER WARNINGS IN MARINE ACCESS BEHAVIOR: A FIELD EXPERIMENT IN COASTAL AREA OF BANGLADESH by HASAN Khan Mehedi A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Lingnan University 2020 ABSTRACT The Role of Information and Knowledge of Weather Warnings in Marine Access Behavior: A Field Experiment in Coastal Area of Bangladesh by HASAN Khan Mehedi Doctor of Philosophy The world’s largest mangrove forest named Sundarban is located in the Bay of Bengal. Due to richness of aqua and forest resources, the coastal community of Khulna district of Bangladesh immensely depends on the forest for income and livelihoods, all the year round. For extracting resources, thousands of people enter into the forest by crossing river, generally with small boats. The region faces various natural disasters repeatedly. Each year about 13-14 cyclones are formed in the Bay of Bengal, which are threats for coastal households. Those hazards bear more risk for marine entrants. Analyzing coastal households’ marine access for two warning periods from a survey, we show that various personal and familial characteristics, and forest dependency are associated with marine access during warning periods. Deficient, delayed and confusing warning weather information can cause higher marine access even during warning signal periods. In the similar way, lack of knowledge on warning weather can also increase risky marine entry during warning signals. In this context, easy availability of warning weather information and knowledge development may help households in making right decisions about marine access, especially during warning signal periods. We conducted a field experiment to investigate the effects of information and knowledge on marine access during warning weather periods. Using micro-level survey data, in repeated experiment settings on the Sundarban dependent coastal households in Bangladesh, we show that receiving on-time weather information significantly reduces households’ marine access during warning signal periods, if information is reliable. Information from unknown sources do not affect marine access significantly, probably because of distrust. Receiving training on warning weather significantly reduces marine access during warning signals but the effect fades out over time. Receiving both treatments (information and training combined) also significantly reduces marine access. The treatment exerts higher effect than solely receiving warning weather information. We also notice positive spillover of the treatments that significantly reduce neighbors’ marine access during warning weather periods. DECLARATION I declare that this is an original work based primarily on my own research, and I warrant that all citations of previous research, published or unpublished, have been duly acknowledged. ___________________________ (HASAN Khan Mehedi) Date: CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ………………………………………………………………. iv LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………… vi LIST OF IMAGES ……………………………………………………………….vii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ……………………………………… viii PREFACE ………………………………………………………………………. x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ……………………………………………………. xiii Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………… 1 1.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………… 1 1.2 Objectives of the study ……………………………………………… 6 1.3 Marine access definition …………………………………………….. 6 1.4 Contribution of the research …………………………………………. 7 1.5 Chapter overview …………………………………………………….. 7 2. BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW………………………… 9 2.1 Literatures focusing the context and background of the study ………... 9 2.1.1 The coastal area, Sundarban and its ecosystem of Bangladesh …... 9 2.1.2 Marine originated natural hazards and impacts in Bangladesh ….. 15 2.1.3 Bangladesh meteorological dept. and disaster warning system ...... 18 2.2 Literatures focusing the study objectives …………………………….. 21 2.2.1 Determinants of non-compliance with warning weather signals … 21 2.2.2 The role of treatments ………………………………………….. 27 3. FACTORS INFLUENCING MARINE ACCESS DURING WARNING WEATHERS …………………………………………………………….. 32 3.1 Methods of the study ………………………………………….…….. 32 3.2 Respondent’s profile ………………………………………………… 37 3.2.1 Demographic features …………………………………………… 37 3.2.2 Dependency on the Sundarban ………………………………….. 38 3.2.3 Forest access behavior …………………………………………... 39 3.2.4 Attachment to information components ……………...…………. 40 i 3.2.5 Correct information on warning weather ………………………… 41 3.2.6 Knowledge on warning weather …………………………………. 42 3.2.7 Robbery threat in the Sundarban ……………………………….. 43 3.3 Factors affecting marine access during warning weather …………… 44 3.3.1 Household’s marine access level during warning signals ……… 44 3.3.2 Hypothesis testing ……………………………………………….. 45 3.3.3 Factors affecting marine access (two warning periods combined) ... 46 3.4 What causes higher-level marine access? ………………………………. 51 3.4.1 Level of marine access (during two warning weather periods) ……. 51 3.4.2 Factors influencing higher-order marine access …………………. 52 3.5 Factors affecting marine access (single warning period) ………….…… 59 3.6 Findings of the study ………………………………….……………….. 67 3.7 Policy recommendations ………….…………….…………………...... 68 3.8 Robustness check ………………………………………………………. 70 4. THE ROLE OF INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE OF WEATHER WARNINGS IN MARINE ACCESS DECISION: A FIELD EXPERIMENT IN BANGLADESH ………………………………………………………………. 71 4.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………… 71 4.2 Experiment design …………………………………………………… 73 4.3. Marine access distribution across time and treatment groups ……….. 81 4.4 Treatment effect estimation ………………………………………….. 82 4.4.1 The effects of warning weather information in marine access ……. 82 4.4.2 The effects of training on marine access …………………………. 86 4.4.3 The effects of both treatments …………………………………… 89 4.4.4 The effects of social network …………………………………….. 91 4.4.5 Combined treatment effects of DID estimations …………………. 94 4.5 Alternate model specifications ………………………………………. 95 4.5.1 Alternate model specifications of DID estimations ……………… 95 4.5.2 Treatments’ effects in propensity score matching method ……….. 96 4.5.3 Consistency between with DID and PSM estimation ……………. 98 4.6 Potential marine access after receiving treatments …………………… 100 4.7 Reasons of high marine access even after receiving treatments …….… 101 ii 4.8 Costs of entering in the Sundarban during warning weather ………… 104 4.9 Justification of applying propensity score matching...………………...107 4.10 Propensity score balance check ……………………………………. 109 4.11 The overlap assumption test ……………………………………….. 110 4.12 Overidentification test ……………………………………………. 113 4.13 Additional evidences supporting treatment effect …………………. 116 4.14 Concluding remarks ………………………………………………. 118 4.15 Solutions and recommendations …………………………………… 120 4.16 Limitations of the research ………………………………………… 122 4.17 Future research directions …………………………………………. 123 Appendix 1. Tables ……………………………………….……………………………124 2. Figures ……………………………………………………….……………137 3. Images ………………………………………………………………….....141 4. Notes ……….……………………………………………………………..149 5. Glossary ……………………………..…………………………………....151 6. Survey instrument ………………………………………………….……..153 7. Endnotes ………….……………………….………………………………..166 BIBLIOGRAPHY ………………………………………………………………..157 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Factors influencing cyclone order non-compliances ………………… 24 Table 2 Respondents profile and dependency on the Sundarban (n=292) ……. 37 Table 3 Sundarban access pattern …………………………………………….. 39 Table 4 Households’ information infrastructure ……………………………… 40 Table 5 Respondents’ knowledge level on warning weather …………………. 42 Table 6 Result of hypothesis testing …………………………………………...45 Table 7 Factors affecting marine access for two warning periods combined ..… 48 Table 8 Determinants of higher level marine access (odds ratio) ……………… 53 Table 9 Determinants of higher marine access (marginal effects) ……………. 56 Table 10 Determinants of marine access for single period …………………….. 61 Table 11 Summary of test statistics ……………………………………………. 70 Table 12 Sample distribution of experimental study …………………………... 77 Table 13 Households’
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