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World Production of Conventional Petroleum Liquids to 2030: a Comparative Overview

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World Production of Conventional Petroleum Liquids to 2030: a Comparative Overview GeoArabia, vol. 14, no. 1, 2009, p. 215-267 World conventional petroleum liquids Gulf PetroLink, Bahrain World production of conventional petroleum liquids to 2030: A comparative overview Moujahed Al-Husseini ABSTRACT This paper compares estimates of reserves, resources and future production scenarios of conventional petroleum liquids for five peaked countries and the World as determined by various analytical techniques. It starts by illustrating Hubbert’s Model using historical production from offshore Norway and the United Kingdom (UK), and onshore Oman, Syria and Yemen, to estimate the resource, peak rate and year. For all five countries the estimated resources were found to significantly differ from known reserves (cumulative production plus proved reserves) and ultimate recoverable resources estimated by geologic studies; accordingly the model’s estimate is here referred to as the producing resource. Importantly, the producing resource – not the known reserves or ultimate recoverable resources – represents the quantity that most closely predicted the peak (rate and year) and early decline for these countries. The model’s production trajectory became accurate after the producing resource was between 10–30% depleted for four countries; the exception was for the UK at 44% depletion and due to non-geological circumstances. In the five countries, the peak occurred when the producing resource was approximately 50% depleted, and within a production plateau – here defined as exceeding 91% of the peak rate. The Hubbert Model cannot be applied to all basins and/or countries. Its World predictions are controversial and therefore presented as a Production Base Case and compared to those from other studies. The Base Case for conventional petroleum liquids predicted: (1) average producing resource of c. 2,860 billion barrels (Gb), (2) peak rate of c. 85.7 Mb/d (31.3 Gb/year), and (3) peak year in ca. 2016. The data used for this analysis is oil production as reported by BP (2008) from 1991 to 2007, consisting mostly of crude oil, lease condensates and natural gas liquids. The producing resource is just 3% greater than the 95%-confidence estimate for ultimate recoverable resources of 2,770 Gb effective in 2025 by the United States Geological Survey (with 152 Gb added for Canadian oil sands, BP, 2008). It is 351 Gb greater than the end-2007 known reserves of 2,509 Gb, consisting of 1,119 Gb produced, 1,238 Gb proved, and 152 Gb in Canadian oil sands (BP, 2008). The unproven resource of 351 Gb is achievable if the 20 Gb/year rate of new liquids reserves (undiscovered and reserves growth), added in 2005, is maintained on average between 2008–2025. The convergence of these three independent techniques on a resource of c. 2,860 Gb makes no assumption about the price of oil. The predicted peak rate (85.7 Mb/d in 2016) is 4.2 Mb/d greater than the 2007 average oil production of 81.5 Mb/d (BP, 2008). It compares closely to the peak rate of 86.2 Mb/d in 2012 obtained by balancing new megaprojects (more than 40 Kb/d) coming onstream in 2005–2014, against existing 2004 production declined at 4.5%/y. The Base Case predicts that production in 2030 will be 78.0 Mb/d, as consistent with the high-price scenario for conventional petroleum liquids production by the Energy Information Agency (2008): price of oil to increase to $186/barrel by 2030 but production to fall to 80.3 Mb/d in 2030 from 81.8 Mb/d in 2004. INTRODUCTION Over the past several decades many analysts have applied Hubbert’s Model to forecast the production of petroleum from various countries and the World (Hubbert, 1956a, b, 1969, 1982; Hubbert’s Curve – sometimes referred to as the derivative of the Logistic Curve; e.g. Campbell, 1997, 2004, 2006; Campbell 215 Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geoarabia/article-pdf/14/1/215/4565539/husseini.pdf by guest on 23 September 2021 Al-Husseini and Laherrère, 1998; Laherrère, 2000; Laherrère and Wingert, 2008; Duncan, 2001; Cavallo, 2002, 2004; Deffeyes, 2005; see review in Al-Husseini, 2006). The model suggests a simple relationship between annual discoveries, annual production, peak production and year, and the ultimate recoverable resources. The predictions, however, vary considerably depending on the analyst’s confidence in the reported ultimate resources and the suitability of the model to the target region (e.g. Nehring, 2006a, b, c). Moreover, because the model does not explicitly account for the price of oil, some analysts have regarded its application to be of limited scope. In particular, for the USA and World cases, it has been convincingly argued that because the price of oil varies over time then so do supply, demand, reserves and the ultimate resource itself (see McCabe, 1998, and related Discussion in 2001 by Laherrère, Campbell and Duncan, and Reply by McCabe, 2001; Ahlbrandt, 2004, 2006; Nehring, 2006a, b, c). One significant aspect of Hubbert’s Model is that it offers a simple technique that uses only historical production data to estimate: (1) resource; (2) maximum sustainable production (peak); and (3) peak year (Hubbert, 1982; see Duncan, 2001; Deffeyes, 2005; de Sousa, 2008). The application of this technique – here referred to as the Hubbert Line – is illustrated using production data from five countries with declining production (Table 1); two offshore (Norway and the United Kingdom - UK) and three onshore (Oman, Syria and Yemen). These five countries werespecifically chosen to illustrate how the technique works when applied to suitable regions, and more importantly to quantitatively determine what is meant by the terms resource, peak, plateau and peak year as determined by the Hubbert Line. This paper shows that the resource estimated by Hubbert’s Model using production data – referred to as the producing resource – differs from known reserves (produced plus proved) and ultimate recoverable resources; importantly, in the studied countries, it is the crucial quantity that determined the peak, plateau and early decline of production. Partners in Progress The final part of the paper applies the Hubbert Line to the World’s production of conventional petroleum liquids to compute its producing resource and peak. The results are interpreted as the Production Base Oxy has been a partner in the Middle East Case, and compared with those from other independent studies of ultimate recoverable resources (USGS, 2000; Ahlbrandt et al., 2005; Ahlbrandt, 2004, 2006; J. Laherrère, 2008, written communication), and North Africa for four decades, working known reserves (produced and proved; BP, 2008), rates of reserves additions (Chew, 2006), near- with the governments of Bahrain, Libya, future production from megaprojects and decline rates (Skrebowski, 2007; Jackson, 2008). Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates PRODUCTION, RESOURCES AND RESERVES and Yemen. OF CONVENTIONAL PETROLEUM LIQUIDS Annual Production of Conventional Petroleum Liquids The annual oil production data (Tables 2 and 5) used in this paper are from the BP (2008) data base, which is unique in several ways: (1) it is readily available from their website for producing countries and the World (www.bp.com), (2) it lists production and reserves back to the 1960s in spreadsheets, (3) the data most closely represents the conventional petroleum liquids extracted from crude oil reservoirs and wet-gas reservoirs locally (lease condensates) and from gas plants, and (4) it is widely quoted as a source in many other studies. BP includes in the category of oil production commercially traded crude oil, which is a stabilized liquid The above illustration depicts a cross-section of an Oxy offshore development near the Qatar peninsula. of processed hydrocarbons at atmospheric temperature and pressure. BP includes condensates (lease condensates), which act as a gas in the reservoir but are liquid at surface conditions and processed in a manner similar to crude oil. Natural gas liquids (NGL) are also included in oil production, and referred to as natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) by the USA’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). NGL consist of C2 (ethane), C3 (propane), C4 (butane), C5 and C6 (pentane and hexane used to produce light naphtha or natural gasoline and fractionated into liquefied petroleum gas LPG). NGL and their derivative LPG are distinguished from condensates because they are totally volatile at atmospheric Occidental Middle East Development Company conditions, more so for the lower weight components. Other petroleum liquids included by BP are A Subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corporation oil sands (Canada) and shale oil (USA); not included are liquid fuels recovered from coal, gas-to-liquids (GTL) and biofuels. Occidental Middle East Development Company Occidental Tower, 4th Street, Muroor Tel: +9712 691 7200 P.O. Box 73243, Abu Dhabi, U.A.E. Fax: +9712 691 7300 216 Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geoarabia/article-pdf/14/1/215/4565539/husseini.pdf by guest on 23 September 2021 08OCCP49 GeoArabia D2P2.indd 1 12/23/08 5:29:52 PM EjWa^XVi^dc/ <Zd6gVW^V 8a^Zci/ DXX^YZciVaEZigdaZjb8dgedgVi^dc 6YIneZ/ 9^heaVn 6\ZcXn/ 7V`Zgq7gVcY8dbbjc^XVi^dch Gjc9ViZ/ ?dW/ 9jZ9ViZ/ &%$')$%- 6Y/ 9^bZch^dch ;^aZcVbZ/ %-D88E).<Zd6gVW^V9'E' A^kZ/ '%,bbm'.&bb Ig^b/ '&(bbm'.,bb EgdYjXi^dc6gi^hi/ :g^X<gVkZh(&%#(.(#(..(m',+ 7aZZY/ Z#\gVkZh5WV`ZgWj^aYh#Xdb 8dadg/ )8 6XXdjci9^gZXidg/ ?d]c<^c\Zg^X](&%#(.(#(..(m''& _#\^c\Zg^X]5WV`ZgWj^aYh#Xdb ADVERT Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geoarabia/article-pdf/14/1/215/4565539/husseini.pdf by guest on 23 September 2021 ADVERT Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geoarabia/article-pdf/14/1/215/4565539/husseini.pdf by guest on 23 September 2021 ADVERT Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geoarabia/article-pdf/14/1/215/4565539/husseini.pdf by guest on 23 September 2021 ADVERT Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geoarabia/article-pdf/14/1/215/4565539/husseini.pdf by guest on 23 September 2021 World conventional petroleum liquids WORLD’S OIL RESERVES AND RESOURCES Figure 1: In this paper, the term oil is consistent Cumulative 1,119 Gb with BP's definition for conventional Production petroleum liquids.
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