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Home , Abdul Waheed Kakar, Asif Nawaz Janjua, Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Ishaq Dar, Mir Hazar Khan Khoso, Qamar Javed Bajwa

SEPTEMBER 2017 ISSUE NO. 199

Coups in Khaki and Other Colours

RAKESH SOOD

ABSTRACT Prolonged periods of military rule in have enabled the military to penetrate all structures of the Pakistani state. Political parties, the judiciary, bureaucracy, and the media – today all have their share of pro-khaki elements. Therefore, a military coup d’etat is no longer the only way to unseat a democratically elected political leader who may have differences with the Army. Indeed, if former Prime Minister had completed his term, he would have become the first elected PM to do so; he was also well placed to win a second consecutive term. With his disqualification, Sharif’s political career may be over, but, the real loser is democracy in Pakistan.

INTRODUCTION

In 2013, when elections were held on different colours other than the military's schedule in Pakistan after a five-year period khaki. It had been predicted that in the of civilian rule—a first in Pakistan’s 70-year elections due in 2018, Nawaz Sharif was likely history—many commentators felt that to get a second consecutive term, thereby democracy had finally come to Pakistan. creating history in Pakistan. This would have However, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s been a boost for elected civilian rule, disqualification by the Supreme Court on 28 and for Nawaz Sharif. And so it happened that July 2017 was a clear reminder that the ‘deep the third time after being elected, his stint as state’ remains in the driver’s seat in Pakistan PM was cut short abruptly, still making and in that country, coups d’etat can come in history, though of a different kind.

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NAWAZ SHARIF’S POLITICS Nawaz Sharif in May 1993 under the same provisions (Art. 58-2b) of the Constitution. The first time Nawaz Sharif took over as prime Nawaz Sharif fought back and in what was at minister was in 1990, following the snap polls that time an unexpected judgement, the provoked by ’s dismissal, less Supreme Court reinstated his government. than two years into her term, by President This was a difficult pill for the establishment to Ghulam Ishaq . The provision used to swallow and Gen. engineered a unseat Bhutto was Art. 58-2b of the compromise under which both the re-instated Constitution which had been introduced by PM Nawaz Sharif and President Ghulam Ishaq Gen. Zia ul Haq and gave the president Khan stepped down from their respective absolute authority to dismiss the elected positions in July 1993. government, dissolve the House and order fresh elections, if he believed that the The second time Sharif was elected PM was government was not functioning in in February 1997. Before the end of that year, accordance with the Constitution. The he replaced Chief of Army (COAS) Gen. president, an ex-civil servant turned senator after cutting short his and then later elected president, was widely tenure with a handpicked chief, Gen. Pervez seen as an establishment person; in other Musharraf. The 1998 nuclear tests had words, someone close to the Army. enhanced his popular standing. Encouraged by this, PM Nawaz Sharif responded positively to Nawaz Sharif’s political career had been then Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari promoted during the Gen. Zia period in the Vajpayee’s peace overtures, leading to 1980s under the benign gaze of the Army. His differences with the . The family business (Ittefaq Foundries) had peace initiative in February 1999 was suffered under PM ’s derailed by the . Under pressure nationalisation drive and he was among the from the US and advice from , the young leaders who were identified for Pakistan Army was obliged to withdraw. By grooming into politics. He first became finance that time, this had irretrievably damaged the minister of Punjab in 1982 and then chief relationship between Gen. Musharraf and PM minister in 1985, under the tutelage of Gen. (retd.) Ghulam Khan, the governor of Punjab. Nawaz Sharif. Sharif realised it, and the failed attempt to replace Gen. led In the 1990 elections after the sacking of to his ouster in the coup of October 1999. Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif’s anti-PPP Nawaz Sharif was arrested and convicted for coalition (IJI) had been cobbled together with ‘kidnapping, attempted murder, hijacking, the tacit backing of the ISI. Less than three terrorism and corruption’. Amidst rumours years later, relations with the Army Chief Gen. that his life sentence would be converted into (whom he had appointed an execution by a military court, the US and in January 1993 after the sudden death of the Saudi regime intervened and he was Gen. ) started going allowed to go into exile after stiff financial downhill. President , part penalties and an undertaking that he would of the ‘deep state’, again obliged and sacked not engage in politics for 20 years.

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It was only after Gen. Musharraf’s decline December 2015 to wish him on his birthday that democracy was restored and both Sharif had not gone down well. His willingness to and Benazir Bhutto were able to return from cooperate in the investigation into the exile in 2007. The Saudis took the view that if Pathankot attack was resisted successfully by President Musharraf was going to permit the Army. ’s portfolio was elections in which Benazir Bhutto could be downgraded to foreign policy adviser when Lt. allowed to participate, the same courtesy Gen. (Retd) Janjua became the National should also be extended to Nawaz Sharif. After Security Adviser. In any event, Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in 2008, PPP and India policies have traditionally been the won the national elections and his party preserves of the Army. briefly joined the PPP-led coalition as a part of efforts at restoring democracy and impeaching Nawaz Sharif also wanted to claim credit President Musharraf. Finally, in June 2013, for the projects under the China-Pakistan Sharif was elected PM for the third time. Economic Corridor (CPEC) to ensure his re- election in 2018. In November 2016, he As in the past, when he had handpicked appointed Gen. as COAS Generals Kakar and Musharraf, this time too after Gen. Sharif retired. However, this did not he appointed Gen. as the COAS help matters and differences continued to in November 2013. However, differences grow. A consecutive second term in 2018 would soon emerge. The Army had to dissuade would have strengthened Nawaz Sharif him from going after Gen. Musharraf,whom he considerably. He could have pushed for policies wanted tried for treason, and he later blamed that could make the Army uncomfortable. This the Army for encouraging ’s was the backdrop against which the agitational politics, aimed at weakening the Panamagate trials unfolded. PML (N) hold in Punjab. (Punjab is the largest province which accounts for 183 seats in the ‘PANAMAGATE’ 342-member National Assembly.)

The so-called ‘Panamagate’1 was already The International Consortium of Investigative unfolding when relations with the Army Journalists (ICIJ) released 11.5 million worsened with the Dawnleaks2 incident in confidential documents on 3 April 2016, from October 2016, for which the Army held the Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca. Sharif’s office responsible (Panamagate and These contained information covered by the Dawnleaks will be discussed in more detail in attorney-client privilege of confidentiality, latter sections of this brief). Sharif’s trusted relating to some 214,488 offshore entities Information Minister Perveiz Rashid took the and bank accounts worldwide. Of these, eight blame and resigned. After a prolonged enquiry, pertained to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, his his Adviser Tareq Fatimi too had to go. In sons Hassan and Hussain, and his daughter 2015, differences on policy approaches and political heir, Maryam. These files revealed towards India and Afghanistan had become four properties purchased by the more pronounced. Prime Minister Narendra in in the Knightsbridge area, in the Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore on 25 1990s—which is hardly a secret in Pakistan.

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Immediately, opposition leader Imran Khan weeks for a heart surgery. On Sharif’s return (Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf ) dubbed it to Pakistan on 9 July, Imran Khan raised the ‘Panamagate’ and demanded the prime ante even as the Joint Committee continued minister’s resignation. He also demanded the to debate the terms of reference. In setting up of an empowered Inquiry September, Sharif called for countrywide Commission. demonstrations which would converge in to create an indefinite lockdown in PM Nawaz Sharif agreed to set up a Judicial the capital from 30 October onwards. In Commission under a sitting or a retired judge. response, the government imposed Sec. 144,3 Then came the demand that the terms of setting the stage for a confrontation. reference be drafted in consultation with the opposition. On 10 May, COAS Gen. Raheel There was an eerie similarity with the 2014 Sharif met PM Nawaz Sharif and urged him to protests, when Imran Khan launched the resolve the matter. His intervention was given Azadi March from Lahore on 14 August, credibility as the Army leaked a story that alleging widespread rigging in the 2013 more than six officers (including a elections and calling on Nawaz Sharif general, a , and three ) to step down. Khan was joined by the cleric- had been sacked on grounds of corruption. turned-politician Dr Tahirul Qadri (Pakistan The two generals dismissed were later Awami Tehreek) who had then just returned identified as Lt. Gen. Obaidullah and Maj. from Canada and the two planned to Gen. Ejaz Shahid; the corruption allegations undertake a sit-in in Islamabad around the were related to their tenures with the Frontier parliament and government complex until the Corps. In addition, half a dozen JCOs were also government conceded. Within a week, the dismissed. While there was no official protestors began camping in the Blue Zone in confirmation, the news was widely circulated. Islamabad. However, it was soon clear that It came alongside a statement by the COAS public sympathy for the protests was waning. that “across the board accountability is PTI’s senior leader split from necessary for the solidarity, integrity and Imran Khan and accused him of acting at the prosperity of Pakistan”; he also cautioned that behest of the Army. Media called it a “soft the cannot be won unless “the coup” even as the Army backed off and began menace of corruption is uprooted”. The media to urge ‘restraint’ and ‘dialogue’. The sit-in in commended the action taken by the Army and 2014 sputtered on for 120 days and was finally suggested that the judiciary hold political called off by Imran Khan on 14 December after leaders similarly accountable. the terrorist attack at the Army Public School in in which more than 150 children Faced with growing protests, on 18 May were killed. PM Nawaz Sharif, it would seem, 2016, the government agreed to set up a Joint had won the round. Committee with the opposition to finalise the terms of reference for a Judicial Commission Sharif’s success was largely due to the fact to be headed by the Chief Justice. Meanwhile, that the civilian intelligence agency (FIA) had PM Nawaz Sharif went to London for six picked up evidence of the role played by the DG

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(ISI) Lt. Gen. Zaheer-ul-Islam of colluding with dismissal by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan the PTI demonstrators to discredit the and earlier, as a newly appointed member of government. COAS Gen. Raheel Sharif was in the bench, Justice Shah had supported the a difficult position. He had to distance the majority judgement that had upheld the Army from the actions of DG (ISI) who was execution of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto) and also sent packing but meanwhile, he also ensured likely to become the chief justice in early 2018. that PM Nawaz Sharif would not humiliate He was supported by Justice Gulzar Ahmed. Gen. Musharraf and allow him to go on a self- The majority view supported by Justices Ejaz imposed exile abroad. Once again the Saudi Afzal, Sheikh Azmat Saeed and Ijaz-ul-Ahsan regime stepped in, this time in support of the found the evidence insufficient and Army, and reminded PM Nawaz Sharif of his recommended setting up a six-member Joint 1999 IOU. Investigation Team (JIT) to examine the issue and submit a report within 60 days. This time around in 2016, the Supreme Court stepped in to diffuse the situation The establishment of the JIT was created by Imran Khan’s call, and on 28 unprecedented in Pakistan’s judicial history. October, announced the setting up of a five- The outcome of a split verdict, it was hailed by member bench to take up a clutch of petitions some as a positive move that reflected an filed by opposition politicians, seeking PM independent judiciary. After all, it was the first Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification on grounds of time that a sitting PM was being subjected to corruption. It provided Imran Khan with a an investigation. Both PTI and PML(N) face-saver and he called off his protests. On 1 declared victory with the split verdict and November, the Supreme Court asked both the welcomed the JIT, though some cautioned government and the opposition to provide the that in the final analysis, it would weaken PM bench with the two sets of terms of reference. Nawaz Sharif as he and his family were going The five-member bench was reconstituted to be subjected to frequent appearances before after the retirement of Chief Justice Zaheer the JIT. The calculated leaks resulted in a trial Jamali in January 2017 and the hearings were by media. The six-member JIT team included concluded on 23 February. officials from the Federal Investigation On 20 April this year, the Supreme Court Agency, National Accountability Bureau, State came out with its 540-page-long judgement, Bank of Pakistan, Securities and Exchange declaring a split verdict with two of the judges, Commission of Pakistan, and interestingly, an of the view that the PM Nawaz Sharif should each from the ISI and the Military be disqualified. Justice Asif Saeed Khan Intelligence. The JIT was headed by Wajid Zia, Khosa, reading from his dissenting opinion, the Addl Dir Gen of the FIA. Brig Nauman began by quoting from the movie, ‘The Saeed (ISI) and Brig Kamran Khurshid (MI) Godfather’ – “Behind every great fortune, were the two military officers. The same two there is a crime”. Justice Khosa is the son-in- officers had also been part of the enquiry team law of the former Chief Justice Nasim Hassan into the Dawnleaks episode months earlier; Shah (who had restored Nawaz Sharif’s the team had laid the blame for the leaks at PM government in May 1993 following its Nawaz Sharif’s office.

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The ten-volume report, submitted to the Incidentally, Articles 62 and 63 were Supreme Court on 10 July, highlighted introduced by Gen. Zia ul Haq in 1985. irregular movements of large sums of money The verdict was based on the JIT discovery in the form of loans and gifts between offshore that PM Nawaz Sharif had been Chairman of entities in , UAE and UK. It Capital FZE, a Sharjah-based entity, from 7 recommended the re-opening of a number of August 2006 to 20 April 2014, receiving a earlier cases and initiated a set of new monthly remuneration of 10000 Dirhams. enquiries as no conclusive judgements Sharif failed to disclose this in the declaration regarding corruption charges could be reached. of assets he filed for the 2013 elections. The The Supreme Court bench reconvened and this Supreme Court had therefore judged Nawaz time, reached a unanimous verdict, Sharif to have failed at being “honest and disqualifying PM Nawaz Sharif and Finance upright” and therefore “disqualified” to be a Minister (whose son is married to member of the National Assembly. The defence Nawaz Sharif’s second daughter).The bench lawyers had pointed out that the company directed the National Accountability Bureau belonged to his son Hassan, that Nawaz Sharif (NAB) to initiate cases against both of them, had never drawn any remuneration, and the together with Hassan, Hussain, Maryam and remuneration was “notional” and needed for her husband, Capt. Safdar. Further, NAB is to the visa, when Nawaz Sharif was in political complete its task within six months, before the exile in UAE between 1999 and 2008. The elections next year. Supreme Court interpreted differently; the amount was technically a “receivable” and A JUDICIAL COUP D’ETAT therefore “an asset” that should have been Ironically, after all the investigations, the declared. Clearly, the judgement had been disqualification verdict was in fact based on a reached before, only the sentence was being technicality. The five-member bench read out after the trial concluded. disqualified PM Nawaz Sharif for having Undoubtedly, the NAB will uncover many violated Article 62 of the Constitution which more skeletons, pertaining to actual money specifies that any member of Pakistan’s laundering and corruption, which could lead to National Assembly must be “sagacious, imprisonment and fines. For the moment, righteous and non-profligate, honest (sadiq) Sharif has been placed on the Exit Control List and upright (ameen)”. Nawaz Sharif was found which bars him from travelling abroad until to have failed on the last two criteria. It also the NAB completes its proceedings. The NAB put him in violation of the Representation of has been directed by the Supreme Court to file Peoples Act that provides for a code of conduct references pertaining to the London for elected representatives. Among others, properties, Azizia Steels, Hill Metal this law requires a candidate to be “of good Establishments, and 16 other offshore character and is not commonly known as one entities. Against former Finance Minister Dar, who violates Islamic injunctions, has adequate the reference is for possessing assets knowledge of Islamic teachings and practices disproportionate to the declared sources of obligatory duties prescribed by Islam”. income. Justice Ijaz-ul Ahsan, who was part of

6 ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 199 l SEPTEMBER 2017 Coups in Khaki and Other Colours the five-member bench, has been tasked to (retd) — who was minister in monitor the NAB process. The NAB has asked Gen. Zia’s Cabinet—was killed when a freak for the JIT report, including the classified rocket hit his car on the road between Volume 10 that contains details of the mutual and Islamabad in April 1988; the legal assistance requests made by the JIT to Ojhri ammunition depot had blown up, authorities in UAE, UK, Saudi Arabia, causing six hours of devastating fireworks. Switzerland, Luxembourg and British Virgin Later Abbasi was chairman of PIA and in 2003, Islands. set up Air Blue, Pakistan’s largest private airline. He is seen as a Nawaz loyalist. However, it is clear that Nawaz Sharif will fight back because what is at stake is nothing Shahbaz Sharif is serving his third tenure less than his legacy. The uncertainty is as chief minister of Punjab. His first term compounded because of lack of clarity about coincided with his elder brother’s second term whether his disqualification is permanent or as PM, from 1997-1999. In 1999, he too went for a finite period. Article 63, also introduced into exile, returning to Pakistan in 2007. His by Gen Zia, provides for disqualification of an second term was from 2008 to 2013, when elected member for five years, on grounds of PPP won the national elections. He was re- ‘contempt of court’ (this was used to dismiss elected in 2013 and is widely seen as a capable PM in 2012) but Art 62 administrator who is in good terms with the does not specify any time frame. Nawaz Sharif Army. While he has kept away from the is also considered to be among the richest men Panamagate scandal, there are questions in , with a personal wealth against him regarding the Hudaibiya Paper estimated at US$1.4 billion. Any split in the Mills case. He has also ensured that Punjab family could lead to potentially embarrassing remains a Sharif stronghold. With reports disclosures which would jeopardise the surfacing about his move to Islamabad, there holdings and therefore, he needs to keep the was speculation about who would take over extended family together. the seat in Lahore. There was talk that Shahbaz’s son Hamza who is a member of the Sharif’s political acumen has been in provincial assembly was a likely candidate to evidence in the manner in which former take over as CM. Nawaz was concerned Petroleum Minister has because this would mean that the reins of been appointed interim PM. Initially, it was power would move decisively to another suggested that Abbasi would only be PM for 45 branch of the Sharif family. Soon enough, days while Nawaz’s younger brother Shahbaz rumours appeared about senior Punjab Sharif resigned from his position as Chief ministers expressing unhappiness about Minister of Punjab, got elected to the National Hamza’s elevation together with reports that Assembly and took over as PM. This made PML(N) members felt that Shahbaz should Abbasi’s elevation acceptable to the old guard stay on in Lahore to preserve the Sharif since it was seen as a short-term appointment. stronghold for the 2018 elections. This is a Abbasi, too, is an entrepreneur who was valid concern. In addition, Shahbaz was also a working in the US when his father Air Cmde trusted interlocutor to engage with

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Rawalpindi, a role that is crucial but one that politicians willing to oblige. The tradition goes he could not have played if he had moved to back to the 1950s when Gen. Islamabad. With 209 seats in a 342-member encouraged the establishment of the National Assembly, Nawaz Sharif can call the Republican Party which was wound up a few shots in Islamabad as long as the PML (N) years later. Gen. Musharraf had encouraged Ch rallies behind the family. Shahbaz’s move is to set up PML (Q) to wean now in abeyance and Abbasi is likely to stay on away Punjab during Sharif's exile; during the as PM until the elections. Nawaz’s clever 1980s, Gen Zia had helped form the PML (F) manoeuvring has ensured that opposition to under Pir Pagara and later Nawaz Sharif Abbasi’s elevation has been diluted. Another himself had been a beneficiary of the indicator that Abbasi is staying is the establishment's support. On the Sharifs' expansion of the Cabinet to ensure that all return from exile though, the PML (N) was able groups are now stakeholders. to successfully reassert itself in Punjab on the understanding that while Shahbaz would Former Interior Minister Chaudhri Nisar manage the province, the elder bother would Ali remains out, having announced just a day target Islamabad. This is why in 2008 when the before the judgement that he would be PPP won the national elections, partly on quitting. As the Interior Minister, not only was account of the sympathy vote generated by he close to Nawaz, he was often also his Benazir Bhutto's brutal assassination weeks intermediary with the Army brass. In recent before the polls, Shahbaz became the PML (N) months, he had been unhappy at being chief minister in Punjab while Nawaz took on excluded from the group of advisers planning the role of the leader of the Opposition after a the Panamagate defence. Reports of his brief coalition period. The strategy paid off differences with Maryam Sharif have also and in 2013, Nawaz Sharif won a solid victory surfaced. He has been tightlipped about his to become PM for the third time. As his future plans. There are rumours about relations with the Army deteriorated, Imran discontent within the Sharif household if Khan's PTI emerged in the role of the King's Shahbaz’s wife, ’s tweets are party. However, Khan is also under an indicator. Nawaz’s wife Kulsoom Sharif has investigation by the Supreme Court and more filed her nomination for the bye-election for recently, has been dragged into a fresh NA-120, the family seat in Lahore.4 For the controversy with his party's MP Ayesha Gulalai moment, Nawaz Sharif has managed to keep Khan alleging that he had been harassing her Lahore and Islamabad under his control but and sending her obscene text messages. She the establishment will certainly try to weaken has since resigned, though no charges have his grip in the months to come before the been filed. Demands have been raised to set up elections next year. a probe committee in the parliament.

BASIC FAULTLINE The judiciary in Pakistan has also toed the establishment line, though with a few notable The 'deep state' has always worked with a exceptions. The Supreme Court legitimised King's party and Pakistan has always had Gen. Ayub Khan’s coup d’etat as a ‘revolution’

8 ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 199 l SEPTEMBER 2017 Coups in Khaki and Other Colours and subsequently, the ‘doctrine of necessity’ term (thirteenth constitutional amendment) was invoked to justify Gen. Zia and Gen. but was reintroduced by Gen. Musharraf (17th Musharraf’s coups d’etat. Bhutto’s execution amendment) after the military coup d’etat in decision was approved by the Supreme Court 1999. though with a split bench of 4/3. During the Following his disqualification, Nawaz 1980s, the sacking of the Junejo government Sharif began his 280-km-long journey to was successfully challenged and while the Lahore in August by road, along the GT Road, decision was declared unconstitutional, his punctuated by PML(N)’s political rallies. This government was not restored. This decision is his political heartland and he used this slow came after Gen. Zia’s death. Given this record, return home to mobilise his support base. He it is clear that the 1993 decision of the has been openly critical of the judiciary and the Supreme Court restoring the Nawaz Sharif military in his speeches; the gloves are off. His government was a departure from the campaign aims at energising the people that established pattern. his disqualification is “a mark of disrespect for This time, the composition of the JIT, with their vote”. It is likely that he will continue his a representative each from the ISI and the protests with marches to other cities like Military Intelligence, with neither having any , , among others. Some see expertise in financial matters, made it clear this as a deliberate act of provocation. which way the decision was to go. No doubt, a Other Pakistani politicians have used this more cogent and consistent defence could technique in the past, including Nawaz Sharif. have helped Nawaz Sharif but would not have In 2009, he began a march from Lahore to changed the outcome. Islamabad to push for the reinstatement of The irony is that the opportunity to do Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar away with Articles 62 and 63 of the Chowdhury who had been dismissed by Gen. Constitution did arise in 2010 but Nawaz Musharraf in 2007. President Zardari had Sharif was reluctant to go along with it because promised to reinstate him but was dragging of opposition from his Islamist partners. At his feet and Nawaz Sharif led a lawyers’ march that time, there was a bi-partisan desire to to press his demands. Halfway through the turn back some of the provisions introduced journey, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani played a role to by Pakistan’s military dictators. The 18th get the task done and President Zardari stood constitutional amendment in 2010 did away diminished even as Nawaz Sharif notched up a with Article 58(2) which had been introduced political victory. by Gen. Zia in 1973 as the eighth amendment. During the 1990s, both Benazir Bhutto and This was the article used to initiate a number Nawaz Sharif used these tactics to mobilise of soft coups d’etat, including the dismissal of street protests against the government in Benazir Bhutto’s government in 1990 and power and invariably, the establishment has Nawaz Sharif ’s government in 1993. intervened to send an incumbent packing even Incidentally, it had been repealed earlier in as a new prime minister is elected amidst 1997 by PM Nawaz Sharif during his second reports that “democracy is thriving”. At times,

ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 199 l SEPTEMBER 2017 9 Coups in Khaki and Other Colours the establishment has also found it convenient cooperate. Each of these exercises in to bring in outsiders as interim prime dismissing an elected government may be ministers until the situation is managed (for projected as a sign of ‘people’s will’ or example, former Vice President ‘independence of judiciary’ but ultimately Moeen Qureshi from July-October 1993, strengthens only the military. It provides a former executive convenient ploy for a dominant security brought in By Gen Musharraf in 1999 as establishment to retain a decisive role for itself Finance Minister and then made PM after he because others can be gotten rid of on the joined PML(Q) from 2004-07, retired Sharia charges of corruption or for being anti- judge from March- Islamic. This is why the Army has taken on the June 2013). In 2014, it was Imran Khan who mantle of not being merely responsible for took recourse to this tested technique, safeguarding the territorial integrity of weakening Nawaz Sharif, and again in 2016, Pakistan but also its ideological frontiers. leading to a decisive outcome. Islam is a faith and political Islam can only Recourse to street power may be create a faith-based state. In the case of undertaken in the name of strengthening Pakistan, to create this faith-based state, it democracy and peoples’ voices but ended up constantly has to deny its civilisational and strengthening the establishment, the non- cultural roots. The rootlessness provides a elected centres of authority, the army and also perfect breeding ground for radicalisation. This now, the judiciary. The problem with Nawaz is the fundamental faultline that runs through Sharif’s new agitation is everyone realises he is Pakistan’s polity. It also sustains and preserves clearly doing it to save his legacy, especially its ‘deep state’. This is why after 70 years, since his daughter and political heir, Maryam is Pakistan remains internally conflicted and also being targeted. If there is a rift in the unable to have normal relations with either family or cracks in the party, his game will be India or Afghanistan, the two neighbours with over. For him, this is unlike the earlier political which it shares the longest boundaries. moves; this time, it is an existential fight. With the recent rallies, the establishment There have been only three military coups has seen that Nawaz Sharif still packs the in Pakistan but long spells of military rule each political punch in Punjab. It is in no hurry to time have created a ‘deep state’. This is why respond because it has time on its side. The coups d'etat in Pakistan come in different NAB process will gradually gather steam and colours, not necessarily khaki. This one was a its progress can be calibrated. Meanwhile, judicial coup, of a judgement reached before internal weaknesses in the Sharif family and in the trial was done. There remain provisions in the PML(N) will be probed and rumours the constitution that come in handy and most planted. The decks appear loaded against of the time, a pliant judiciary is willing to Nawaz Sharif.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Rakesh Sood is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi.

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ENDNOTES

1. ‘Panamagate’ refers to the legal case filed by political leader Imran Khan against PM Sharif in the Supreme Court following the disclosures in the about linkages between certain offshore entities and the Sharif family members.

2. ‘Dawnleaks’ refers to a news report in the dated 6 October 2016 regarding a high-level meeting in which the civilian leadership warned the military that Pakistan would face international isolation unless the military acted against the militants. https://www.dawn.com/news/1288350

3. Section 144 refers to the legal provision under which the assembly of more than five persons is declared illegal if in the opinion of the magistrate, such an assembly will be a 'disturbance of peace' and create a 'danger to human health, life and security'.

4. On 18 September, Begum Kulsoom Sharif was declared elected in the bye-election.

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