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Fiscal Year 2021 Fall Enrollment Report About This Report

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Fiscal Year 2021 Fall Enrollment Report About This Report FISCAL YEAR 2021 FALL ENROLLMENT REPORT ABOUT THIS REPORT This report provides enrollment data for students attending Arizona’s public universities in the 2020- 21 academic year and updates multi-year enrollment trends. Twenty-first day headcount and 45th-day full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment data is provided for each university and their campuses. Within higher education, enrollment is generally expressed in student headcount or FTE terms. Student headcount is reported for the purposes of determining educational scale and measurement against metric goals. Headcount is defined as the number of full- or part-time individual students registered at a university for at least one credit hour on the 21st day of instruction. Student headcount is considered a broad measure of a university’s educational reach, reflecting the number of individuals the university is educating at one time. Student FTE has historically been used for calculating state funding and to determine how university revenues are budgeted among colleges, schools, departments and programs. FTE is generally defined as a measurement of credit hours equal to one full-time student enrolled for one academic year. Arizona’s student FTE enrollment is computed according to A.R.S. §15-1661 and board policy and guidelines. The enrollment analysis within this report uses student headcount numbers unless specifically identified as using an FTE calculation. Student enrollment is counted across all education delivery modalities, including online and extended campuses. The report further disaggregates the data into undergraduate, graduate and total enrollment. Data is presented by demographics, full-time and part-time student enrollment semester credit hours, and residency status. ABOUT THE ARIZONA BOARD OF REGENTS The Arizona Board of Regents is committed to ensuring access for qualified residents of Arizona to undergraduate and graduate institutions; promoting the discovery, application, and dissemination of new knowledge; extending the benefits of university activities to Arizona’s citizens outside the university; and maximizing the benefits derived from the state’s investment in education. MEMBERS Larry Penley, Chair Lyndel Manson, Chair Elect Karrin Taylor Robson, Secretary Ron Shoopman, Treasurer Bill Ridenour Fred DuVal Kathryn Hackett King Cecilia Mata Anthony Rusk, Student Regent Nikhil Dave, Student Regent Gov. Doug Ducey, Ex-Officio Superintendent Kathy Hoffman, Ex-Officio ABOR EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR John Arnold TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 Executive Summary 6 Key Takeaways 7 Arizona Public Universities Enterprise Enrollment Trends 9 Arizona Public Universities Total Enrollment 10 Arizona State University 28 Northern Arizona University 46 University of Arizona EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Postsecondary enrollment is an integral component of advancing the state’s goal to increase educational attainment and is a key focus for the board and universities as the state transitions to an economy where the majority of job skills demand education past high school, and most jobs that pay well require a four-year college degree.1 Reporting enrollment is a necessary step in ensuring that Arizona’s public universities are meeting their mission to provide access and produce the number of degrees required to support and improve Arizona’s economy. In fall 2020 – which falls within fiscal year 2021 – enrollment at Arizona’s public universities increased with notable growth in the number of students taking online programs. In contrast, on campus traditional immersion student enrollment has slowed. There are several reasons for the slower on-campus enrollment growth, including Arizona’s demographic shift and the global COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 Pandemic Impacted Arizona Public Universities’ Enrollment and Student Mix In the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, Arizona’s public universities’ total enrollment increased at a slower rate than in previous years. The impact of COVID-19 on Arizona’s public universities enrollment was, however, less severe than at many other institutions.2 During fall 2020, total student enrollment at Arizona’s public universities was 204,460, a 4.5 percent increase over fall 2019. Much of that increase was due to substantial increases in online enrollment. The pandemic impacted the universities’ student enrollment mix – the number of international, out-of-state and in-state students that enrolled. The universities saw increases in their online programs but slower enrollment in out-of-state and international immersion student – traditional students taking in-person classes. Arizona’s Demographic Changes Pose Challenges to Future Enrollment Increases In addition to the immediate enrollment shifts resulting from the current pandemic, future undergraduate enrollment increases may become progressively more difficult as a result of declining Arizona birth rates during the Great Recession. Total K-12 enrollment is projected to be flat for the next few years and then begin to decline. Depending on net migration, the decline is expected to occur no later than 2025.3 Without increases in the percentage of Arizona high school graduates that choose to enroll in a four-year degree program, demographic reductions may impact Arizona’s long-term educational attainment levels. Declining enrollment impacts the universities’ financial models. As state support per student has been reduced, Arizona’s public universities funded a greater percentage of their 1 Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Good Jobs are Back found at https://cew.georgetown.edu/ cew-reports/goodjobsareback/#resources. 2 See McKinsey Report – COVID-19 and U.S. higher education enrollment: Preparing leaders for fall, May 2020 found at https:// www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-us-higher-education-enrollment-preparing- leaders-for-fall#. 3 See Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education Report Knocking on the College Door dashboard found at https:// knocking.wiche.edu/state-profiles and 2017 Report at https://www.wiche.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2017JulyDataInsight sKnocking-WesternFINAL.pdf 4 | FALL ENROLLMENT REPORT operations through tuition and other entrepreneurial sources of revenue. Arizona’s divestment in public higher education has resulted in the board and universities focusing on the number of students enrolled at each institution as well as the mix of resident, non- resident and international students to ensure the universities remain financially strong. The slowing enrollment and the change in enrollment mix places greater financial pressure on the universities. Total Enrollment Continues to Climb Due to Online Enrollment Online degree program students now comprise 32.5 percent of the system’s total enrollment. At Arizona State University, which has the largest online enrollment, approximately one in two students is enrolled in an online program. This does not include the number of traditional immersion students that are taking asynchronous or synchronous courses due to the pandemic. Similarly, approximately one in two of Northern Arizona University graduate students is completing an online program. Online education at the University of Arizona is anticipated to continue to expand in 2021 and beyond with the university’s affiliation with the University of Arizona Global Campus, an independent nonprofit corporation that will operate as a separate institution accredited by the WASC Senior College and University Commission. University of Arizona Global Campus is projected to enroll 35,000 students next year. These online enrollment increases may be accelerating due to the global pandemic, but Arizona’s public university system has seen significant growth in online programs for years, largely fueled by ASU online. Since fiscal year 2017, online degree program enrollment within Arizona’s public universities increased by 98.7 percent. In contrast, the system’s traditional on-campus enrollment growth has slowed. There are 116,162 traditional immersion undergraduates enrolled on-campus – a 2.0 percent year-over-year decrease. On-campus graduate degrees also saw a 3.8 percent decrease from fiscal year 2020. Enrollment of Historically Underrepresented Populations Continues to Increase Enrollment of historically underrepresented populations – Blacks, Hispanics and Native Americans – has increased by 8.9. percent from fall 2019, continuing a trend of continuous enrollment growth. In fiscal year 2021, 7,923 Black undergraduate students were enrolled in Arizona’s public universities. Arizona’s public universities also enrolled 41,904 Hispanic undergraduate students and 2,280 Native American undergraduates. Due to the continued increase in enrollment of Hispanic undergraduate students, UArizona is currently designated a Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSI) by the U.S Department of Education. NAU’s Yuma location is also currently designated an HSI and NAU’s Flagstaff campus is on track to receive this status in the next round of HSI designations. The designation is awarded to institutions with undergraduate FTE enrollment that is made up of at least 25 percent Hispanic students. FALL ENROLLMENT REPORT | 5 KEY TAKEAWAYS • In fall 2020, 204,460 students enrolled in Arizona’s public universities. This is the largest enrollment in Arizona’s public universities history, but the current pandemic and future demographic trends pose challenges to continued efforts to increase enrollment and educational attainment. • Fiscal year 2021 enrollment increased 4.5 percent
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