Mappers Rush to Pinpoint Landslide Risk in Nepal Geologists Say Hazard Posed by Earthquake-Loosened Earth Could Linger for Years

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The village of Langtang was buried by a landslide last month after a major earthquake struck Nepal.

EARTH SCIENCE Mappers rush to pinpoint landslide risk in Nepal Geologists say hazard posed by earthquake-loosened earth could linger for years.

BY ALEXANDRA WITZE anticipated from the aftermaths of other large glaciologist at the International Centre for Inte- earthquakes in mountainous areas. “Something grated Mountain Development in Kathmandu. s Nepal digs out from the devastating slightly mysterious has happened,” says David Satellite images reveal that a giant swathe of magnitude-7.8 earthquake of 25 April, Petley, a geoscientist at the University of East mountainside has been obliterated, right down researchers are braced for the next Anglia in Norwich, UK. “The landslide problem to the river on the valley floor. Ageological hazard. In June, monsoon rains will is far from trivial, but it’s not as desperately seri- Elsewhere, Nepalese authorities worry that begin to drench the hillsides destabilized by the ous as we might have feared.” landslides might block rivers. This can form quake, raising the risk of disastrous landslides. The most violent event occurred in the lakes that obstruct major roads, force peo- Geologists are racing to identify areas that Langtang valley, a popular trekking area in the ple to evacuate their homes or even burst in a could collapse and bury villages or block impor- mountains north of Kathmandu. Part of a gla- single catastrophic event. Last August, a land- tant roads. They say that the hazard is likely to cier above Langtang village broke off and plum- slide triggered by heavy rains dammed the Sun linger for years. meted into the valley below. Witnesses report a Kosi River in northern Nepal, killing roughly So far, the situation has been grim but better powerful wind blasting snow, dust and building 150 people and causing widespread flooding. than expected. Scientists have identified thou- fragments over the village, suggesting that the At least four groups are using government sands of landslides in satellite imagery, rather avalanche was so powerful that it sent a pressure and commercial satellite imagery to map such than the tens or hundreds of thousands they wave racing outwards, says Dorothea Stumm, a hazards. The recent quake caused landslides

that blocked valleys, including several POLITICS along the Trisuli River, which runs between Nepal and Tibet. “It looks to be quite risky there at the moment,” says Nick Rosser, a landslide expert at Durham University, UK. What the UK election “This will be the area of biggest impact when the monsoon starts, as rainfall totals there are among some of the highest in the coun- means for science try.” In preparation, a team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has been surveying landslide sites along roads that lead to Tibet. A Conservative majority, Scottish National Party rise and Another area of concern is a landslide-cre- Liberal Democrat losses all have implications for research. ated lake on the Marshyangdi River, which runs above the Annapurna trekking circuit. The monsoon in Nepal typically lasts from BY ELIZABETH GIBNEY Nick Hillman, director of the Higher June to September, and fatal landslides hap- Education Policy Institute in Oxford, UK, says pen mostly during that period. The amount rom an outright majority in Parliament that the reappointment of Theresa May as of monsoon rainfall varies dramatically from for the Conservatives, to the decimation of Home Secretary may trouble scientists. The year to year (D. N. Petley et al. Nat. Hazards the Liberal Democrats and the rise of the last government’s tough stance on immigra- 43, 23–44; 2007). The fact that the earth- FScottish National Party, the UK general election tion included cutting the post-study work visa quake struck in April may have been some- on 7 May was full of surprises — many of which for international students (see Nature 506, thing of a saving grace, because dry soils are will have implications for science. 14–15; 2014). But he sees promise in the new harder to dislodge than is wet ground. Many Scientists should expect an emphasis on science and universities minister, Jo Johnson, more landslides would have happened had austerity allied to economic growth — a pillar younger brother of the Mayor of London and the quake struck just a few months later, of the Conservative-led government of the new Member of Parliament (MP), Boris John- says Binod Tiwari, a geotechnical engineer past five years, which ruled in coalition with son. Although not a scientist, Jo Johnson is at California State University in Fullerton. the Liberal Democrats. During that time, the pro-European and close to the Chancellor of The country was at high risk of landslides science budget was frozen, and dropped in real the Exchequer, George Osborne. even before the tremor. Nepal rides atop terms. But there is support for science in Par- A certain outcome of the Conservative win the ongoing collision between India and liament, and an understanding of its relation is a referendum by 2017 on whether to leave Asia, a geological bust-up that pushes the to the economy, says Paul Nightingale, deputy the European Union. Nightingale suspects that Himalayas to ever-greater heights. The rug- director of the Science Policy Research Unit people will vote to stay in. If Britain did leave, ged terrain, unstable soils, heavy rains and at the University of Sussex, UK. So cutting the it would probably not be cut out of European mountain communities combine to make it research budget would be a “hard sell”, he says. research programmes, says Kieron Flanagan, a one of the world’s landslide hotspots. Instead, he expects “more explicit attempts to science-policy researcher at Manchester Busi- The earthquake, now named the Gorkha align research with economic growth”. ness School. However, it would feel the loss of quake, has worsened the situation. It rup- Before the election, the Conservatives cash from a different European pot, which Brit- tured the main Himalayan geological fault pledged to seek a “strong” deal at the United ain uses to fund science-related infrastructure. to the northwest of Kathmandu. By 11 May, Nations climate negotiations in December Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party’s more than 8,000 people had been confirmed that “keeps the goal of limiting global warm- increased representation from 6 to 56 seats dead — although that is many thousands ing to two-degrees firmly in reach”. The party may affect science across the United Kingdom. fewer than experts had projected. Buildings also promised to end support for onshore wind Growing Scottish nationalism is likely to fur- in Kathmandu may have been sturdier than farms and to encourage expansion of nuclear ther a focus on regional development that was thought, or the ground may not have shaken power and gas, including fracking. part of the Conservative Party’s manifesto, says quite as strongly as would be expected from Nightingale. This could bolster a trend to allo- the quake’s magnitude. cate science funding directly from the Treasury Gentler shaking would also help to explain in London to regional projects, such as the UK the relative paucity of landslides, says Marin National Graphene Institute in Manchester, Clark, a geomorphologist at the University he says, rather than through national funding of Michigan in Ann Arbor. “Either that, or agencies. However, David Price, vice-provost 67PHOTO/ALAMY the rocks are stronger than we estimated,” for research at University College London, she says. warns that without an increase in the science But the risk of landslides remains high. budget, the regional agenda would be pointless. After the magnitude-7.6 Chi-chi earth- Another defining moment was the crash in quake in Taiwan in 1999 and the magni- support for the Liberal Democrats, who lost 49 tude-7.9 Sichuan earthquake in mainland of their previous 57 seats, including some high- China in 2008, the number of landslides profile MPs. Keenly felt by many scientists was soared for years as sediment continued to the loss of Julian Huppert, the former Liberal shift in fresh debris flows (B. Yu et al. Eng. Democrat MP for Cambridge. Previously a bio- Geol. 182, 130–135; 2014). Authorities in chemist at the University of Cambridge, he was Nepal need to prepare for the monsoon vocal on science issues and popular with scien- season by inspecting and monitoring the tists. On 8 May, Huppert teasingly expressed places most at risk, Rosser says. “That’s fears about the future: “Scientists love control where we need to be focusing,” he says. experiments — but I certainly didn’t want a Tory “Places where we have landslides and there’s Former Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert was a government to show how effective the Liberal a population.” ■ vocal supporter of science. Democrats actually were in government.” ■