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Part 2 Report to the Government TTFAC ANNUAL REPORT 2016 34TH REPORT OF THE TUVALU TRUST FUND ADVISORY COMMITTEE Mission: 27 September – 13 October 2016 PART 2 REPORT TO THE GOVERNMENT TTFAC Secretariat 4 November 2016 TTFAC Annual Report 2016 PART 2 4 November 2016 Contents: Part 2 Table of Figures 4 Acronyms Used 5 1. Summary & Recommendations 7 1.1 Overview 7 1.2. Recommendations ..................................................................... 7 1.3 Process for the Government’s Response ................................... 8 1.4 Summary of Economic & Social Progress and Prospects ........... 9 1.5. Summary of Fiscal Developments & Prospects ......................... 9 2. Background 11 2.1 Preamble................................................................................... 11 2.2 Mission Focus ........................................................................... 11 3. TTF Valuations, Distribution Prospects & CIF Balances 12 3.1 Maintained Value: ..................................................................... 12 3.2 TTF Market Value: .................................................................... 12 3.3 Fund’s Performance .................................................................. 13 3.4 Distributions & Tuvalu Consolidated Investment Fund (CIF)..... 13 4. Economic & Social Progress & Prospects 15 4.1 Overview ................................................................................... 15 4.2 Base Information on Gender: Fully utilising statistical resources17 4.3 Social Expenditures .................................................................. 17 4.4 Health ....................................................................................... 18 Health Infrastructure 18 Tuvalu Medical Treatment Scheme 18 4.5 Education ................................................................................... 19 Education Infrastructure 20 4.6 The Future of Tuvalu Marine Training Institute (TMTI) .............. 20 Scholarships 21 4.7 Recommendations ..................................................................... 21 Page 2 of 42 TTFAC Annual Report 2016 PART 2 4 November 2016 5. Fiscal Developments & Prospects 23 5.1 Overview ................................................................................... 23 5.2 2016 Budget and mini-budget ................................................... 23 5.3 Supplementary/Mini-Budget ...................................................... 24 5.4 Year to date figures ................................................................... 24 5.5 Managing Fiscal Surprises ........................................................ 28 5.6 Holistic budgeting ...................................................................... 31 5.7 Recommendations .................................................................... 31 6. Public Sector Management 33 6.1 Overview ................................................................................... 33 6.2 Progress on PSM Issues: From Plans to Results ..................... 33 6.2 Commercial Management ......................................................... 34 Centralised Contract Management Unit 34 6.3 Public Financial Management ................................................... 35 Cash Management 35 Public Enterprise pay rates 35 6.4 Recommendations .................................................................... 36 7. Private Sector Development 38 7.1 Overview ................................................................................... 38 7.2 Next Steps ................................................................................. 39 7.3 Recommendation ....................................................................... 39 8. Policy Reform Matrix (PRM4) 40 Annex: List of People Met by TTFAC 41 Page 3 of 42 TTFAC Annual Report 2016 PART 2 4 November 2016 Table of Figures Table 1: Quarterly CPI data - Sept.2015 to Sept. 2016 (Source www.abs.gov.au) ......... 12 Table 2: Maintained Value Calculations .......................................................................... 12 Table 3: Market Value by Fund Manager ........................................................................ 12 Graph 1: Market Value by Fund Manager ....................................................................... 13 Table 4: Fund Managers’ Investment Returns against benchmark for the year ending 30 Sept. 2016 ........................................................................................................... 13 Graph 2: Tuvalu Economic Indicators 1990-2014 ........................................................... 15 Graph 3: Tuvalu’s Population 1960-2016........................................................................ 16 Table 5: Tuvalu Indicative Social Indicators ................................................................... 17 Graph 4: Tuvalu’s Budget 2005-2016 ............................................................................. 23 Table 6: Tuvalu MTFF 2013-Oct 2016 [1] Domestic Revenues ..................................... 25 Table 7: Tuvalu MTFF 2013-Oct 2016 [2] Expenditure & Domestic Funding Gap ....... 26 Table 8: Tuvalu MTFF 2013-Oct 2016 [3] Calculating the Published Budget Balance 27 Diagram 1: Tuvalu’s Volatile Revenues – 2005 & 2016 ................................................. 28 Graph 5: Atuna Skipjack Price Index 2000-2016 ............................................................ 28 Graph 6: Managing Surprises .......................................................................................... 29 Box 1: IMF Article IV Report on Tuvalu 2016 ............................................................... 30 Diagram 2: Composition of Tuvalu Domestic Revenues 2005 & 2016 .......................... 34 Page 4 of 42 TTFAC Annual Report 2016 PART 2 4 November 2016 Acronyms Used Acronym Description .tv The Tuvalu internet domain name (also “dot.tv” or “.TV”) ADB Asian Development Bank APTC Australia-Pacific Technical College AUD Australian Dollar CCMU Central Contracts Management Unit CIF Consolidated Investment Fund (Tuvalu Government) CPI Consumer Price Index CPU Central Procurement Unit DAA Dynamic Asset Allocation DBT Development Bank of Tuvalu FTF Falekaupule Trust Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GoT Government of Tuvalu GNI Gross National Income HEIS Household Expenditure & Income Survey IMF International Monetary Fund LCU Local Currency Unit(s) MFATTEL Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Trade, Tourism, Environment and Labour MFED Ministry of Finance & Economic Development MOEYS Ministry of Education, Youths & Sports MOH Ministry of Health NBT National Bank of Tuvalu NZAID New Zealand Aid OBAA Objective-Based Asset Allocation OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPM Office of the Prime Minister Page 5 of 42 TTFAC Annual Report 2016 PART 2 4 November 2016 Acronym Description PE Public Enterprise PFM Public Financial Management PFTAC Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre PMU Procurement Management Unit PU Public Utility PWD Public Works Department SAA Static Asset Allocation SDE Special Development Expenditure SELF Student Education Loan System TA Technical Adviser TCT Tuvalu Consumption Tax TCS Tuvalu Cooperative Society TK3 Te Kakeega III (National Strategy for Sustainable Development 2016-20) TMTI Tuvalu Maritime Training Institute TMTS Tuvalu Medical Treatment Scheme TNPSO Tuvalu National Private Sector Organisation TOR Terms of Reference TPF Tuvalu Provident Fund TTF Tuvalu Trust Fund TTFAC Tuvalu Trust Fund Advisory Committee TVET Technical & Vocational Education & Training USD United States Dollar VDS Vessel Day Scheme WB World Bank Page 6 of 42 TTFAC Annual Report 2016 PART 2 4 November 2016 1. Summary & Recommendations The advice in Part 2 is addressed primarily to the Government of Tuvalu (GoT). 1.1 Overview 1. The big picture is still one of good progress on major issues i.e. many of the right steps are being taken to build the strength of the economy, and to ensure that the Tuvalu Trust Fund (TTF) contributes as intended to its social and economic purposes. 2. But new challenges have emerged that do require appropriate responses. And some long-standing problems have still not been fixed. However, this is a very good time for Tuvalu to “spend money to save money”. It is also a critical time for managing “fiscal surprises” in ways that serve the long-term interests of the people of Tuvalu. 1.2. Recommendations 3. TTFAC recommends that (a.) the Government accelerate establishing a Central Contracts Management Unit and, while waiting for TA, pro-actively prepare for the next steps. Note: Cabinet last year approved the establishment of the Central Contracts Management Unit (CCMU) to help maximise the value and minimise the risks associated with the government’s commercial dealings, and NZAID has offered to support its establishment. TTFAC drew up draft step-by-step TOR for Government consideration. These indicate the kind of preparation that could start immediately. [Suggested responsible lead Ministries: MFED & Office of Attorney General] Reference Section 6.2, p. 32. (b.) MFED urgently review fiscal resilience measures and recommend reforms to increase certainty of budgetary funding from on-going revenues – primarily revenues from fishing licences – and reduce the destabilising impacts of fluctuating total annual revenue. Note: TTFAC analysis indicates that work is urgently needed to clarify the fiscal implications of high but variable revenues from the fishing sector, and probably to design and introduce new tools to increase fiscal resilience and
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