Participatory approaches and geospatial modeling for increased resilience to climate change at the local level

PCLM Guidebook Participatory coastal land-use management Participatory Coastal Land-Use Management (PCLM) Guidebook: Participatory approaches and geospatial model- ing for increased resilience to climate change at the local level

Authors: Brian A. Johnson, Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog, Pankaj Kumar, Rajarshi Dasgupta, Masayuki Kawai Layout and design: Aoki, Masato

© Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, and Japanese Ministry of Environment. All rights reserved. Publisher: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) 2108-11, Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115, Japan Tel: +81-46-855-3700 , Fax: +81-46-855-3709 E-mail: [email protected] URL: http://www.iges.or.jp

IGES is an international research institute conducting practical and innovative research for realising sustainable devel- opment in the Asia-Pacific region. No parts of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from IGES. Although every effort is made to ensure objectivity and balance, the pub- lication of research results or translation does not imply IGES endorsement or acquiescence with its conclusions or the endorsement of IGES financers. IGES maintains a position of neutrality at all times on issues concerning public policy. Hence conclusions that are reached in IGES publications should be understood to be those of the authors and not attribut- ed to staff members, officers, directors, trustees, funders, or to IGES itself.

Suggested citation: Johnson, B.A., Magcale-Macandog, D. M., Kumar, P., Dasgupta, R., Kawai, M. (2021). Participatory coastal land-use manage- ment (PCLM) guidebook: Participatory approaches and geospatial modeling for increased resilience to climate change at the local level. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.

Acknowledgements The development of this training guidebook was kindly supported by the Japanese Ministry of Environment under the “Knowledge sharing and human resources development on climate change adaptation in the Asia-Pacific region” project, for the fiscal years 2019-2020. We would like to express our thanks to the Japanese government for their support and guid- ance throughout this project. We would also like to thank all of the local and national government officials from the Phil- ippines who participated in on-site/online trainings and helped us to improve this PCLM guidebook, specifically the local governments of: Baco, Bansud, Bongabong, Bulalacao, Calapan City, Gloria, Mansalay, Naujan, Pinamalayan, Pola, Puerto Galera, Roxas, San Teodoro, Socorro, and Victoria; and the Oriental Mindoro Provincial Agricultural Office. Without your support, this project and guidebook would not have been possible.

Concept and objectives of this PCLM Guidebook This guidebook is intended to provide an overview of how to conduct climate change and land-use change impact assess- ments at the local level, so that the local impacts on water, biodiversity, and health can be better understood. A key aspect of the guidebook is the tutorials provided for conducting climate change/land-use change scenario analysis and impact assessment using free software. The methodology presented (PCLM) and training materials provided can help local gov- ernments with their climate change adaptation and land-use planning, and is designed to complement/support countries’ official planning processes. Using these training materials as a basis, more intensive in-person (or online) trainings can also be conducted to provide more specialized or location-specific trainings in priority sites. Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management 4 (PCLM) approach

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis 14

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis 24

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST 32 software

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-level 42 Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the Water Evaluation 56 and Planning (WEAP) tool

Chapter 7: Identifying countermeasures for increased resilience to 78 coastal hazards Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach

Overview

This guidebook introduces several concepts and methodologies for evaluating and building resilience to climate change and land-use change in coastal areas, focus- ing on the local level (e.g. the municipal or provincial level). Specifically, it presents a framework that we developed, called “Participatory Coastal Land-use Manage- ment” (PCLM), which utilizes various participatory approaches and geospatial mod- eling techniques to quantitatively evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and land-use changes, and to develop suitable local countermeasures.

The target of the PCLM approach is to help the local governments located in coast- al areas work together to quantify climate change/ land-use change impacts and develop more resilient development plans, so that future generations can be pro- tected from climate-related hazards and continue enjoying the benefits provided by nature. This guidebook is intended for technical experts (environmental scientists, hydrologists, GIS experts, etc.) and managers/policymakers working at the local level.

Brian A. Johnson Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog Rajarshi Dasgupta Pankaj Kumar Masayuki Kawai In this chapter, you will:

Learn how climate change and land-use change can affect coastal communities’ resil- ience at a local scale.

Be introduced to the steps involved in the Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach, which will be covered in detail in subsequent chapters.

4 Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach - - - Mangroves, coral reefs, sea grasses, and other coastal ecosystemsprovide widea range ecosystem of services to coastal communities, including foodprovisioning, natu ral shoreline stabilization, and protection against storms and floods. As one example, mangroves’(which are natu rallyfound in many regions affected bytyphoons) dense aerialroot systemstrap sediments floating inthe water and build up the soil over time, forming a natural “buffer” whichprotects inland areas from coastal flooding and sea-level rise (Figure In 1.1.). the context of climate change, coastalecosystems can reduce to help several negative impacts, including: increasing storm frequency/intensity, sea-levelrise, sea surface temperature rise, and ocean acidification (UNEP 2016). However, coastal ecosystem areoften prioritized not in coastal land-use planning and development processes because it is difficultto visualize and quantify theirvarious benefits. 5 - - therinland areas from sea-levelrise, storm surge,and other coastal hazards.Source: Authors. Figure1.1. Soil accretion in mangrove ecosystems. The dense root system traps sediments and builds-up the soil, protecting fur Main concepts tems. tems. oftenundergo rapid land-use changes, serving different commercialand recreational purposes. These land-use changes can lead loss to degradation or of coastal ecosys Coastal areas are also important home to land, estuarine, and marine ecosystems thatare rich in biodiversity. Asa meltingpot diverseof stakeholder interests, coastal areas the world’s megacities theworld’s and vast infrastructure large (e.g. ports,power plants, and roads/railways), owing the to economic benefits associated with access the to ocean. coastal hazards Despite (IPCC their 2019). high exposure climate to hazards, coastal areas are many home to of floods. Global climate change is expectedto raise the sea level and increase typhoon frequency and/or intensity in manyparts theof world, which may further exacerbate our planet. They are constantly shaped and reshaped bythe winds and waves, and frequently affected bycli mate-related hazards includingtyphoons and coastal Coastalareas are some theof most dynamic areas on Increased intensity of of Increased intensity and hurricanes storms ave attenuation by reefs can reduce can reefs by attenuation ave the reaching waves storm of power the coastal reduce and thereby shore erosion. flooding and and waves attenuate forests Mangrove if flows surge water storm slow enough. wide mangroves areas are velocity, current reduce Seagrass can and stabilize wave energy dissipate shallow in reliably sediment most the energy and low wave waters environments. and waves to buffer a act as Dunes can storm surges. and structure absorbs porous Their energy, protecting dissipates wave and flooding from structures inland additional damage. Dunes also provide which material and system marine re-enters the erosion profile after beach new a forms events. Redefining the location of the of the location the Redefining buffer maintaining and coastline protect help can ecosystems against storm surges. communities Supporting communities to protect Supporting to communities can livelihoods their and diversify on reliance their reduce help from may be at risk which livelihoods and supportstorms them after storm events. recovering in that ecosystems MPAs protect Where they to attenuate storm waves, help coastal associated reduce help can erosion. flooding and Ocean acidification here such plans take into account the account the take into plans such here of acidification impact and abundances shifting on can patterns, they reproduction/growth impacts. to manage the help Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g. pressures non-climate Reducing overfishing and nutrient pollution high the increases fish) of herbivorous change climate to reefs of resilience impacts. reefs are more by provided Services threats if other maintained to be likely managed. effectively are pressures non-climate Reducing services of resilience the increase acidification. mangroves to by provided act to found been also have Mangroves ocean from corals for refuge a as a protecting Therefore, acidification. (e.g. of habitats mosaic could reefs) coral near mangroves benefits. resilience provide in shown been have meadows Seagrass buffering a have to locations some pH, modifying effect on As a activity. photosynthetic through it may beds seagrass result, healthy calcifying for refuge a provide organisms. is biomass seagrass In addition, ocean acidification by increased carbon increased to leading sequestration. Supporting communities to protect and protect to communities Supporting help can livelihoods their diversify livelihoods on reliance their reduce acidification from be at risk may which particular a of harvesting (e.g. become may mussels or crustacean of face the in unsustainable acidification). to helping management, through MPA can reduce non- climate pressures, to resilience the increase to help and the of ecosystems acidification provide. they services 6 Sea level rise Depending on the type, wetlands can wetlands type, the on Depending reduce so and waves attenuate help act as also may They wave inundation. high times of during store a water of coastal flooding water, reducing areas. can salt marshes, including Wetlands, vertically may so and sediment trap Coastal rises. level as sea up soil build the manage help also can wetlands a providing area of the hydrology to necessary source freshwater salt as such habitats other maintain then that mangroves and marsh sea against protection some provide rise. level Reefs can attenuate (reduce the height height the (reduce attenuate can Reefs the powerwaves. Reducing and of) shore the reaching waves of height a (to inundation wave decrease can as grow corals When extent). certain service attenuation this rises level sea maintained. be can so and waves attenuate can Mangroves certain a (to inundation wave reduce also capture sediment They extent). erosion. coastal counteract help so and (vertically accrete mangroves here rises these level sea soil) as up build be can services protection coastal thresholds). (up to certain maintained velocity, current reduce can Seagrasses the stabilize and energy wave dissipate shallow in reliably most sediment, ofwaves height waters. Reducing the wave decrease can shore the reaching extent). certain a (to inundation help can sediment Stabilizing rise level sea with accrete seagrasses and sedimentation certain under rates. accretion (e.g. pressures non-climate Reducing and trampling) clearing and development plant dune encouraging services of resilience the increases Dunes beaches. and dunes by provided waves to buffer physical a as act can to wave barrier some provide so and rise. sea levels as inundation Redefining the location of the coastline coastline of the location the Redefining ecosystems buffer maintaining and to help can saltmarshes) as (such sea impact of the reduce communities. rise on level Supporting communities to protect and to Supporting communities help can livelihoods their diversify livelihoods on reliance their reduce level sea from risk at be may which rise. that MPAs protect ecosystems Where can and waves attenuate to help wave reduce help can accrete, they levels rise. sea as inundations Table 1.1. Table Benefits of different ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) meausures. Source: (UNEP 2016) Sea surface temperature rise Sea surface Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g. (e.g. pressures non-climate Reducing encouraging and pollution) may species tolerant temperature resilience the increase (e.g. wetlands by provided of services to temperature fish) for habitat increases. here such plans take into account the the account into take plans such here shifting on of temperatures impact distributions and species to manage help can they abundances, impacts. the Reducing non-climate pressures (e.g. (e.g. pressures non-climate Reducing encouraging and pollution) may species tolerant temperature of coral bleaching incidence reduce services of resilience the increase and for fish, habitat (e.g. reefs by provided increases. to temperature tourism) (e.g. pressures non-climate Reducing encouraging and pollution) may species tree tolerant temperature of services resilience the increase habitat for (e.g. mangroves by provided increases. temperature to fish) (e.g. pressures non-climate Reducing encouraging and pollution) species may tree tolerant temperature of services resilience the increase habitat for (e.g. mangroves by provided increases. temperature to fish) Supporting communities to protect and and protect to Supportingcommunities help can livelihoods their diversify livelihoods on reliance their reduce surface sea from risk at be may which of a fishing (e.g. rises temperature species). particular to helping through management, MPA can climate pressures, non- reduce of resilience the increase to help they services the (and ecosystems rise. to temperature provide) Coastal EbA Coastal option Mangrove Mangrove and restoration conservation Seagrass and restoration conservation beach and Dune and restoration conservation (dune stabilization) Coral reef reef Coral and restoration conservation Coastal wetland wetland Coastal and conservation restoration Managed Managed realignment/ setbacks coastal Livelihoods Livelihoods diversification of protection and based ecosystem livelihoods Marine protected Marine and (MPAs) areas based area- other management measures Sustainable fisheries management or plans Ecosystem to approach (EAF) fisheries

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach - - - - - Physical Social Financial Environmental ・ ・ ・ ・ Vulnerability likethis than more where one stimulus is found lead to to the same impact, can we understand that this impact is highly significant, and efforts should be madeto mitigate the problem. The impact chain is basically a graphical representation specifica how of climate land-use or modification (i.e. a “stimulus”) directly and indirectly affects a location of interest. The impact chain can be developedutilizing scientificmodels, local knowledge, other or relevant in formation. One example of an impact chain is shown in Figure 1.3 demonstrate to the approach. From this exam ple, can we see that climate change rise), urban (sea-level landexpansion, and agricultural land expansion can have manyinterlinked direct and indirect impacts. In cases 7 - Risk Population Agriculture Infrastructure Property ・ ・ ・ ・ Exposure ). Figure1.1. Concepts ofhazard, exposure,vulnerability, andrisk. azards Extreme Climatic events Extreme Changing weather patterns ・ ・ pacted areas; and The level of vulnerability of the people/infrastructure/environment in the areas exposed the to climate-related haz ards Thefrequency and levelof extremity the of climate-related hazardsexperienced in the locality; Thelevel exposureof these to climate-related hazards, e.g. the number peopleof and properties located in the im 3. 2. 1. https://www.pik-potsdam.de/cigrasp-2/ic/ic.html ( or land-useor can impact the environment and society, one interestingtool iscalled the“impact chain” quality(because the mangrove areas help trap sediments thatrun-off from upstream among areas), other things. To visualizehelp these how types changesof in climate and/ groveecosystems changing to due climate conditions or land-useconversions conversion fishponds) to (e.g. may result in the loss of biodiversity and deterioration of water Aside from their impacts on disaster risk, climate change andland-use change can have variety a otherof local impacts. example, For loss/degradation of coastal man Figure1.2 shows all how threefactors (i.e.hazards, exposure, and vulnerability)interact determineto disaster risk. age, injuries, and/or loss of lives. Local disaster risks associated with climate hazards are typically thought of as being related three to factors: From the above, it is clear that climate change and land-use change can have significant impacts on people’s exposureto climate-related hazards in coastal areas. In some cases, these hazards may result in “disasters”, i.e. major economic dam 8 Figure1.3. Impact chain considering three stimuli: urban land expansion in coastal areas, sea-levelrise, andconversion ofmangrove ecosystems fishponds.to

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach - - - - - Local governments ). Future scenarios land-useof Impacts theof future land-use Local governments use the identi uponsome priority countermeasures relevant all for localgovernments in the transboundary area (e.g. ecosystem-basedinfrastructure or measures); Climate resilient land-use planning and implementation: fied countermeasures to improve their land-use plans, and development for of climate change adaptation actions and policies. The identified countermeasures can also be used develop to project proposals do for mesticinternational or sources climateof change adaptation funding through(e.g. the GreenClimate Fund: https://www.greenclimate.fund/ Scenario development: changeand climate changeare identified ; assessment: Impact change/climate change scenario(s) are analyzed us ingdifferent computermodels and software; Countermeasure identification: within the coastal study identify site countermea suresbased on the risk assessments, and try agree to 4. 1. 2. 3. Figure1.4. provides an overview theseof four steps, and theprocesses and software/tools required each for step. Alltheseof processes are described in detail more in the subsequent chapters, andyou will learn apply to how themyourselves throughseries a hands-onof tutorials. ThePCLM approach utilizes combinationa participatoof ryprocesses and geospatial modeling techniques this for impactassessment and policy development, and consists fourof main steps: 9 ------structurecan beput in place. otherstakeholders can better understand the potential impacts of climate change and land-use change in coast alareas, so that effective more policies, plans, and infra change adaptation funding from sources like the Green Climate Fund (https://www.greenclimate.fund/). We hope that by using the PCLM approach, local governments and or internationalor sourcesimplement to large (e.g. ecosys temrestoration infrastructure or building projects), they canbe used as basisa develop to proposals climate for countermeasures in local plans and policies increase to theirresilience climate to change. If some theof identified countermeasures require external funding from national estimatedusing free software/computer models, local governmentsidentify countermeasures reduce to these impacts,and finally the local governments adopt these Inthe PCLM approach, future climate and land-use sce narios are generated, the impacts of these changes are proaches like the impact chain (Figure 1.3.) by helping to quantify the potential impacts of futureclimate change change. land-use and/or Land-use Management” (PCLM) approach presented in this guidebook is intended help with to this process. The PCLMapproach can complementhelp traditional ap for differentfor types of computer simulation models es to timate the impacts of these changes, e.g. on flood hazard, waterquality, biodiversity. or The “Participatory Coastal theland-use are likely change to in the future over (e.g. the next 20, Once 50 or 10, years). future climate and land- use scenarios are identified, they can serve as input data To estimate climate To how change and land-use change will affect a coastal area, planners and policymakers first need have to an understanding the of how climate and approach Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) Management Land-use Coastal Participatory - - Software used: Stakeholder consultations. Participatory countermeasure Coastal vulnerability impact Coastal vulnerability impact assessment. Sea-level rise Water uality impactassessment development. assessment. ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ range of possible futures. higher For accuracy, the climate modeldata should also be downscaled and bias-corrected usinglocal climate observations. Chapter thisof 3 guide book covers the basics of GCMs, acquire to how the GCM data, andvisualize to how init QGIS software. opment) onto a printed onto opment) map using markers and tracing paper Figure (see 1.5 some for examples). Each local gov ernment then presents its future land-use plans the to otherneighboring local governments, so that all have a better understanding of the future land-use conditions theof coastline. the Later, sketched maps are digitized andgeoreferenced using the free Geographic Information Systemssoftware (GIS) Chapter “QGIS”. thisof 2 guidebook provides a step-by-step tutorial perform to on how this land-use scenariodevelopment. asRelative Concentration Pathways Due the to (RCPs). high level of uncertainty of these future climate change estimates,multiple scenarios should be used show a to Impact Assessment Step 2 Step 3 Countermeasure Identification 10 - - - Step 1 Step 4 land-use Scenario Analysis planning and implementation Climate resilient Figure1.4. Four stepsof the PCLM approach, andthe different processes andsoftware/tools required in eachstep. Software used: Improving local plans and Improving local plans Applying for climate adaptation Stakeholder consultations. Stakeholder mapping of future Participatory model data ownscaling climate policies incorporating identified policies incorporating countermeasures. funding to implement countermeasures. land-use. gasemissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated these future levels of emis sions under different socioeconomic scenarios known To understandTo the future climate changes of a coastal study area, projections fromGeneral Circulation Models (GCMs, a.k.a. Global Climate Models) Regional or Circu lation Models (RCMs, a.k.a. Regional Climate Models) are used. GCMs/RCMs are computer models of the future climate, assuming different levels of future greenhouse land-useconversions based (e.g. on their land-use plan, theiror knowledge of planned land acquisitions/devel For this, For stakeholder a consultation workshop should be organized, wherein representatives from each local government within a coastal study share site their land- use and development plans. A map of the future land- useis created through participatory a mapping activity. Localgovernment officials sketch their planned future To understand To the likely future land-use changes a of coastalarea, participatory a mapping approach is used. Step 1: Scenario Development (covered in Chapters 2 and 3) Chapters in 2 and 3) Scenario (covered Development 1: Step In the first step of PCLM, future scenarios of land-use change and climatemapping land-usechange(for scenarios) and downscalingaredeveloped climate of model projectionsthroughclimate (for change participatoryscenarios). ・ ・ ・ ・ ・ Climate change scenario development Land-use scenario development

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach Software used in Step 1 QGIS: https://www.qgis.org/en/site/ https://www.qgis.org/en/site/ QGIS: 11 Figure1.5. Participatoryfuture land-usemapping activity. Step 1: Scenario (Participatory development GIS) 1. Current land-use map land-use Current 1. map land-use Future 2. data climate Downscaled 3. data) daily/monthly future and (current Main outputs of Step 1 - - No specific software needed specific software No Software used in Step 3 Software Software used in Step 2 Software https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slamm.html Figure1.6. Stakeholder consultations to develop countermea sures for reducing the impacts of future land-use changes and climatechange. ： software,based on tutorialdata fromcasea study site in the Philippines. Chapter5 shows perform you to how sea-levelrise impact assessment in the same study site using SLAMM software. Chapter6 shows per you to how form coastal water quality impact assessment in this site using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool. Through these tutorials, you will learn the basics of how the apply to PCLMmodels in your own coastal area. 12 QGIS: https://www.qgis.org/en/site/ QGIS: SLAMM https://www.weap21.org/ (EAP): Planning and Evaluation ater https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/invest InVEST: - - - - Main outputs of Step 3 of Main outputs (current and future) and (current future) and (current future) and (current Flood hazard maps hazard Flood Habitat quality maps quality Habitat ater quality parameters quality ater Main outputs of Step 2 of Main outputs List of countermeasures identified by each local government in the watershed the in government local each by identified of countermeasures List whole a as watershed for countermeasures of priority List Figure Each local 1.6.). government presents their identi fied countermeasures, and finally, some common/priority countermeasures are discussedand identified. this,the results theof impact assessments from Step are2 presented all to of the localgovernments within the coast al area, and the local government officials are asked to thinkpotentialof countermeasures and write them down using (e.g. markers and adhesive notecards, as shown in Step 3: Countermeasure Identification (Chapter (Chapter 7) Countermeasure Identification 3: Step Inthe third step PCLM,of countermeasures reduce to the negativeimpacts futureof land-use changes and climate changeare identified using participatory a process. For coastalvulnerability impact assessment using InVEST approach be to open as to many as possible, in this guide book have we demonstrated conduct to how all of the im pactassessments using freely available GIS and modeling software. Chapterthisof 4 guidebook shows perform to you how Step 2: Impact Assessment 2: Step and 4, 6) 5, (Chapters Inthe second step PCLM,of impact assessment, computer modelingsoftware is used estimateto various impacts of the future land-use and climate changes. the PCLM For

Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach Chapter 1: Introduction to Participatory Coastal Land-use Management (PCLM) approach - - - - . The - - https:// No specific software needed specific software No Software used in Step 4 Software Fund other or national/international climate adaptation funds. Examples of the types of adaptation projects fund edbythe Green Climate Fund can be found at www.greenclimate.fund/projects?f[]=field_theme:235 GreenClimate Fund and other types adaptationof funds typically require a climate change impact assessment to beconducted prior applying to project for funding jus (to tifythe why funds are needed, and estimate to the bene fits of proposedthe project). The impact assessments from stepPCLM2 of providethe basis this for assessment. In Chapter 7 of this guidebook, we show some specific ex amplestheof types actionsof that could be taken in step PCLM,of 4 based on the results casea of study conducted inthe Philippines. 13 - - - https://www.unep-wcmc.org/system/dataset_file_fields/files/000/000/380/ Main outputs of Step 4 of Main outputs 1. More climate resilient local policies and plans plans policies and local resilient climate More 1. funds adaptation-related change climate for proposals Project 2. funding) external require that countermeasures identified any implement (to help ers and Planners.” UNEP, Nairobi (June 2019): 110. original/Options_for_Ecosystem_based_Adaptation_in_Coastal_Environments_low-res.pdf?1462462607. PCC.“Summary 2019. for Policymakers.” In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in Changinga Climate, Cam bridge,United Kingdom USA. and NY, New York, Manag Environmental for Guide A Environments: Coastal in (EBA) Adaptation Ecosystem-Based for “Options 2016. UNEP. References proposed as projects funding for by the Green Climate some measures may be too costly the for local govern mentsimplement to without external aid. In case external aid isnecessary, the identified countermeasures can be Some countermeasures identified through PCLM may be possible local for governments implement to on their own changing(e.g. zoning regulations building or while codes), into concreteactions. actionsand infrastructure. This is probably the most im portantstep PCLM,of as the goal thisof step is trans to latethe scientific information generated through PCLM identified from Step 3 are used as a basis fordeveloping climatemore resilient land-use plans and other policies, as well as implementing for climate change adaptation Step 4: Climate resilient land-use planning and implementation (Chapter 7) resilient and land-use implementation planning (Chapter Climate 4: Step In the final stepPCLM,of thepriority countermeasures Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis

Overview of this chapter

Land-use changes can have a significant impact on the biodiversity, water quality, Brian A. Johnson and damage caused by extreme weather events in coastal areas. This chapter gives Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog an overview of the impacts of land-use changes, and demonstrates how to perform Rajarshi Dasgupta land-use change scenario analysis. In the chapter, you will learn how to create your Pankaj Kumar own maps of the current and future land-use of a study site using free Geographic Masayuki Kawai Information Systems (GIS) software. This represents the land-use change scenario development component of PCLM Step 1 (“Scenario Analysis”). These maps will serve as the basis for conducting land-use change impact assessments in PCLM Step 2 (“Impact Assessment”), which are explained in Chapters 4-6.

After completing the chapter, you will be able to:

Perform basic GIS operations in QGIS software (https://qgis.org/en/site/);

Generate your own land-use maps showing the current and future (planned) land-use.

14 Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis - - - impact assessments. impact land-useplanning in coastal areas, such as demand for urban,agricultural, and recreational land meet to the needsgrowing of populations and economies. land-usemap is already available your for (e.g. city/town a land-use map produced by/regularly updated byyour localgovernment), this will probably be the best data to use an for impact assessment. If a local land-use map isavailable, not you can check online other for existing global-,regional-, national-level or land-use maps de to termineif they meet the level detailof high (e.g. enough spatial resolution, and a sufficient number of land- useclasses mapped) and accuracythat you require. Finally,in case you need accurate/up-to-date/ more a detailed land-use map than what is available, you can always create your own by carefully digitizing land- use polygons over a satellite image base map using GIS software. (this digitizing process will be explained later in the Figure chapter). 2.1. shows the general decision process identifying for appropriate land-use maps for qualityin coastal areas, among other things. Coastal eco systemsserve ashabitat and nursing grounds rangea to aquaticof animals, many whichof have high economic and livelihood importance the to local communities. Onthe other hand, urban development and population growth in areas near the coast can lead increased to groundwaterwithdrawals household for and commercial/ increased causes subsequently industrialwhich use, salt-water intrusion (as salt water flows into thedepleted fresh water aquifers). This can make the groundwater un suitabledrinking for and irrigation. Of course, many different factors must be considered for 15 - - - - - could bebasisa this for future land-usemap. a map of the planned potential) (or land-use a for desireddate in the future. Municipal land-use plans a map of the current nearly land-use; up-to-date) (or and ii. i. Main concepts a simple a process. If an accurate and up-to-date local available land-use data may vary significantly from one locationanother, to so identifying the appropriate land- use to impact for usemap(s) assessment is always not It is important It that note to the quality and quantity of changes. The first step of this land-use change impact as sessment process is identify to create or the needed land- usemaps; including: Inthis will we chapter, provide you with training in some of the tools/software that can better help to understand and manage the potential impacts of future land-use Data and software for land-use change mapping/analysis also have major impact on the biodiversity and water tionthe of coastlinefrom sea-level-riseand storm surge). Land-usechanges associated with urbanization can have resulting in the release of CO2 emissions from deforesta tion/forest degradation as well as increased climate-re lated hazards like coastal flooding(dueto reducedprotec coastalinundation and salt water intrusion. In contrast, convertingnatural coastal ecosystems into urban agri or cultural/aquaculturalareas can have the opposite effect, coastalmangroves, forests, wetlands, and other natural ecosystemscan reduce the cause climateof change (CO2 emissions)as well as the potential impacts like increased Asintroduced in Chapter1, land-use is majora factor that affects a community’s resilience climate to change andclimate-related hazards. Conserving and restoring Land-use change and climate-related hazards coastal in areas - Modeled 23 use conditions no Use a participatory (GIS) mapping Use a participatory model to estimate the future land- to model approach or a land-use simulation or approach Land-use map ( future condition ) ( future condition Modeled 215 yes land-usezoning plans) at the land-usezoning Land-use map available (e.g.from (e.g.from Land-use map available desired time period in the future Use this data Figure 2.2. Process for mapping future land-use/land cover (LULC) changes using a Markov Chain computer simulation model.Souce: Iizuka etal, 2017). Validation spatialand demographic information, identifying drivers of land-use change, and simulating future changes based onthe predicted changes theseof drivers population (e.g. growth estimates) (Iizuka et al., (Figure 2017) 2.2.). A com parisoncurrentof and future land-use maps can be used calculateto the change in area of each land-use class, and visualizetheir spatialdistribution (Figure2.3.). Markov Chain https://www.qgis.org/en/site/. 16 - - - no satellite image as a base map. igitize a new land-use map using a igitize a new land-use map using Transition Sub-Model accuracy available no yes Coarser (national, regional, or global) global) or (national, regional, Coarser land-use map with acceptable level of of land-use map with acceptable level Transition Evidence available Use this data Figure2.2. Process for mapping future land-use/land cover (LULC) changes using Markova Chain computer simulationmodel. Souce: Iizuka et al, 2017). Land-use map ( current condition ) ( current condition Local Land-use map with Land-use map with Local yes acceptable level of accuracy of acceptable level river Variables Figure2.1. Processfor identifyingsources ofcurrent and future land-use datause to for impact assessments. LULC 215 Use this data LULC 21 LULC 27 Theremainder thisof chapter is tutoriala digitizing for land-use polygons using freea GIS software package called QGIS. QGIS has a relatively simple user interface, and runs on Windows, Mac, Linux, and Android operating systems. can downloaded You the latest version theof software from inghistorical maps of land-usechanges with other geo appropriate source of future land-use data (Figure 2.1.). Future land-use maps are often produced through partic ipatorymapping activities, e.g. sketchingby future land- usechanges on paper digitizing or them directly using GISsoftware (Endo et Alternatively, al., they 2017). can be generatedbycomputer simulation modeling byoverlay A similarA decision process can be used identify to the

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis - - - table”. Thetable”. “NAME” row shows the name of the wa tershedthat the polygon contains, and the other rows show the size, area, and average population densitytheof watershed. You You will see a map of the land-use of Mindoro Is land in 2015. Check the details of the added file by clicking on the “Identify features” icon in QGIS. You can also check by right-clicking on “mindoro_2015” in the Layers menu, and selecting “Open attribute a 17 Load the “mindoro_2015.shp” file in the “Current_ LU” folder by dragging the file to the from the “Browser” menuin QGIS the to “Layers” window. menuon theleft, and recentprojects in the main window. Open “QGIS Desktop” using the Windows Start menu. After QGIS opens, you will see a browser a Step 2. Loading GIS data GIS 2. Loading the current of the sample land-use of Step study site Island,(Mindoro Philippines). b Tutorial Step 3. Inspecting 3. the dataStep and modifying style the layer For the sake For thisof tutorial, have we already downloaded QGIS and provided you withto it this training package. Let’s in stallit. Step 1. Downloading and running QGIS Downloading 1. Step software.have provided We allthe of datathis for tutorialin the folder entitled “QGIStraining”. Thistutorial focuses onthe process preparing for current and future land-use maps case a of study using site, free GIS - - - - . In . the Layer Styling window, change For easier visualization, For you will assign uniquea the colorto polygons representing each land- use class. do this, To click on the “mindoro_2015” maplayer in the Layers window highlight to thisand layer, then click the Layer Styling Panel ic o n the symbol type from “Single Symbol” to “Cate gorized”, and specify the “AGC12” column as the columncontaining the land-use information. Finally,click the “Classify” you should icon. Now, seeeach land-use class displayed as different a color. a ning processes) as well as any other relevant stakehold ers. This kind of activity typically involves printing out a large poster-size map of the showing site, the adminis trative boundaries, the current land-use, the major roads and rivers, and other important geographic features. The localgovernment staff then sketch the planned likely) (or futureland-use changes using trans colored markers. To late this analog data to digital GIS format, we can finally digitizeusing it GIS software. 18 - - - - . Practice. turning on/off the two map layers bychecking on/off the check boxes in the Layers window, andre-ordering the maps bydragging them and up down in the Layers window. Finally, practice changing the colors eachof land-useclass by clicking the color box next init to the “Symbol” columnthe of “Layer styling” window. Practice zooming in and out to the study area boundary using the magnifier and “pan”icons above the map window b cal government staff (i.e. those involved in land-use plan land-use.This could be land-usea map based on your mu nicipality’s land-use zoning or plan, which may already bein GIS format. If future no land-use/zoning map exists already,common a approach understand to the potential future land-use conditionsa coastal of area is conduct to a participatoryland-use mapping activity with relevant lo InStep 2, loaded we GISa shapefile containing the cur land-use.land-use rent For change impact assessments, also we however, need mapa showing the potential future a Step 5. Create a future Create land-use based map 5. on the outputsStep a participatory of activity. mapping Step 4. Visualizing each land-use classStep ascolor. a different

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis 19 header in this window, make sure “Empty layout” is selected and click New fromNew Template To add To a map to the layout, click on the Item” “Add menu, and click Map” “Add in the dropdown box. A crosshairs will appear your for mouse pointer, and you can click and drag a rectangle that will display the GIS layers in this canlayout.themove map You resizeor by dragging it stretchingor therectangle. the “Project” menu, and then clicking “Layouts”, and “Mindoro”.] In the next steps, you will create the current land- usemap layoutSan for Cristobalwatershed usingthe toolsin this window. A new window entitled “Mindoro” will appear. [If you close this window, you can open againit by clicking again on will appear. Under the “Create…” button. In the “Create print layout Title” window that appears, please enter “Mindoro” as the title, and then click “OK”. Click on the “Project” menu, then click “Layout Manager…” from the dropdown box. A Layout Manager window b c a Let’s createvery a basic currentland-use map thatcould be printedout and usedparticipatorya for mapping activity. 5.1. Creating a current use land-use Creating to map as a basis for participatory5.1. activity mapping 20 Add a scale bar to the map by clicking on the item” menu “Add and clicking Scale“Add Bar” in the dropdown box. canYou draw a rectangle to indicate where you want the scale bar to go. Usually, scale bars also corners go of thein map one layout, of where theythe will not obstruct the GIS layers shown in the map. layoutYour window will look something like thisafter adding the Legend and scale bar: Finally, save the layout as a .pdf file by clicking the “Layout”menu, and clicking “Exportbox.Name the file to “Mindoro Land-use”2015 pdf”and it save in the “QGIS_outputs” folder. in the dropdown Save the layout by clicking the “Layout” menu, and clicking “Save project”. canYou also click the disk icon below the Layout save.menu to Savethe file to the “QGIS_outputs” folder. Let’s change this title by right-clicking on “Lorem ipsum”, and clicking “Item properties” from the and dropdownthen enteringbox, a new title: “Mindoro: Current Land-use”. canYou make the text larger by clicking on the “Font” menu,and selecting a larger size font (trysize 36 font). Add a title for the map. Click again on the “Add item” menu, and click “Add label” inrectangle the in dropdown the box. top partDrag a of the layout window where the title will go. By default, the title text is “Lorem ipssum”. Add a map legend by clicking on the “Add item” menu and clicking “Add legend” in the drawrectanglea dropdownindicate to you want where the legend box.go. to Usually, map legends You go in canonethe of corners theof maplayout, they where willobstruct not theGIS layers shown in themap. f e g b h outand used conduct to participatorya mapping activity! The actual participatory mapping can be byprovidingdone markers of different colors the to participants, and asking them draw to out their planned future land-use changes in differentexample, colors. For they might digitize planned new urban developments in red, parks new other or green spacesin green, and agricultural new areas in Once yellow. this is completed, this analog data will need be to digitized into GISnew a layer. Now Now you have completed the process of creating an existing land-use map of a coastal study site, which can be printed

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis - 21 For For now, this is just an empty shapefile. As the next step,we need to digitizegonsrepresenting poly thefuture land-use ofthe watershed. Changethe geometrytype from “Point” “Polygon”. to Openthe Layermenu, click“Create Layer”, then click “New Shapefile Layer”. Set thecoordinate system andmap projection matchto the other GISdatasets (WGS1984, UTM Zone51N). polygonthat youwill digitize.data, Set Text to theand Type the Length 50. Fields to to ClickList” the“Add icon. Add a New Field to the file, called“AGC12”. This field will containthe future land-use class information of each For additional For dimensions, specify “None” Set the file and filepath by clickingthe […] icon. Please namethe fileoutputs”“Future_LU.shp”, folder. and place it in the“QGIS_ f c e a b d Step 5.2. Digitizing the future 5.2. land-use created map Digitizing Step through a participatory activity.mapping Inthe next steps, will we practice the digitizing process in QGIS so that you can digitize futurea current) (or land- usemap using GIS software. - ).Add 22 Digitize a polygonof new“Built-up”areaa around here. . Left. click in the map display locationa at like you’d where start to digitizing polygona gon Feature icon gonFeature icon feature, then keep left clicking to add vertices (corners) of the polygon. When you’ve got the shape you want, rightclick close to the polygon. this For exercise, just try adding 5-6 vertices the for polygon, like the example shown (If below. you aren’t happy with the polygon you made, and want redo to it, click the icon Undo uniquea ID number and (1) a land-useclass (Built-up). Now Now zoom to a location having a current land-use of “AnnualIt is Crop”. light purple in the map we generated, but may appear differently on your screen. check, To you can use the “Identify Features” tool from Step 3a. As oneexample, youcan zoominto the areashown in the screenshot below: After zooming in, try digitizing a new polygon representing the “Built-up” land-use class. Click the Add Poly Highlightthe “Future_LU” layer in theLayers window, and click Editingthe Toggle icon . Makesure everything matches the screenshot Then below. click “OK” j i g h

Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis Chapter 2: Land-use change scenario analysis - - 23 . Choose “Vertex and Segment”. This will en Finally,save youredits by clicking on the“Save Layer Edits” icon!!!! land-use classin this Go backnew layer. Step to 4(b) if you needrefresh to your memory this.do to how of [Note: In a real situation, you would need to digitize polygons covering your study area takesome of timecomplete.] to interest, so it may Try digitizingTry polygons more a few of the other types of land-use features. Assign a different each color to Digitize another polygon with 4 vertices, this time of an “Open Forest” land-use feature. Digitize it adjacent to the“Built-up” polygon you digitizedearlier practice to snapping, and assign an it ID2. of Click the “Enable Snapping” icon surethat polygons you digitize will snap the to existing polygons, and help avoid topological errorslike overlapping polygons gapsor between polygons. Turn Turn on “Snapping” to that the digitized polygons snap to one another, to allow easier for mapping.Click the “Project”menu, then “Snapping Options”. https://docs.qgis.org/3.4/en/docs/training_manual/create_vector_data/create_new_vector.html. Congratulations, you’ve learned the basics of displaying and digitizing land-use learned data QGIS! in and the basics digitizing displaying of you’ve Congratulations, longera and For general more QGIS tutorial, pleasealso check theQGIS website: Endo,I., Magcale-Macandog, B., D. Kojima, S., Johnson, B. A., Bragais, M. A., Macandog, B. M., Scheyvens,& P. toryH. Participa (2017). land-use approach for integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation into basin-scale47-56. 35, local society, and cities planning. Sustainable Iizuka, K., Johnson, B. A., Onishi, A., Magcale-Macandog, B., D. Endo, I., & Bragais, M. Modeling (2017). landscape future change urbanin sprawlthe and Laguna de Bay Area, Philippines. Land,26. 6(2), References l o k n m ------24 Understandwhat GCMs are and howthey are generated; DownloadGCM data(future precipitation andtemperature climate variables); and Visualizethe climatechange projection usingQGIS software. After completing the chapter, you will you be chapter, the completing After able to: Thischapter will introduce GCMsyou to and downscaling, and show ac youto how cessdownscaled climate data. graphic region). To better understandgraphic To region). local climate changes, projections from global climatemodels (i.e. general circulation models; regional or GCMs) climate models are(RCMs) typically downscaled using statistical approaches, and then bias-cor rected using local climate observation data. These downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections can be extremely useful estimating for the local impacts of cli mate change andidentifying appropriate adaptationactions. Overview of this chapter Due increasing to greenhouse concentrations gas (GHG) in the atmosphere, the Earth’s climate is changing the at global scale. The main change is increased global temperatures, while the magnitude of the temperature changes varies from loca tionlocation. to Climate change is affecting the water cycle as well, leading more to rainfall in some regions and less in others, and changing the seasonal rainfall pat terns in many places (causing more/less drought or flooding,depending on the geo nario analysis nario Chapter 3: Climate change sce change 3:Climate Chapter Pankaj Kumar Pankaj BrianA. Johnson

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis - - Thehydrosphere ispossibly the mostnegatively affected component of the Earth system. Considering freshwater as a finite resource, many scientific studies have focused on evaluating the effects of climate change on precipita tion patterns and hydrologic regimes (Dore 2005, Kleinn et al. 2005, Abbs et al. 2007). These studies and other similar ones havehighlighted the impacts of climate change on regionalprecipitation trends, which include increased flooding and drought aswell asdeteriorating water qual ityin many regions. Developing nations, many whichof haveinadequate infrastructure and/or water governance systems, are likely to be most significantly affected. Asia, havingthe highest gap between freshwater supply and demand, is expected bear to the brunt of these global changes. 25 - Main concepts of climateof change are already becoming evident in terms of the changes in the amount, intensity and frequency of precipitation, and temperature in many parts of the world. and mortality from (e.g. increased heat stroke, drought, or climate-induceddisasters) The (IPCC, consequences 2014). pactsclimateof change include the alteration naturalof ecosystems, interruption of food production and water damagesupply, infrastructure, to and human morbidity Globalclimate change is disrupting the ways that people live and interact with their environment. Some of the im believed be to the main drivers of climate change to (due increased concentrationsgreenhouse of in gasses (GHGs) the atmosphere). climateinclude variations in solar radiation and the occurrence of volcanic eruptions. Human activities like burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, are however, Climate change is caused by a variety of natural and anthropogenicfactors. Some natural factors affecting Climate change and its impactsClimate ------GCMs the (and downscaled data from them) are generat edbased on estimated future greenhouse gas emissions, whichare calculated different for socioeconomic sce narios. The most widely-used of these socioeconomic scenariosare the so-called “representative concentration pathways” (RCPs), including RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and 8.5 RCP (Moss The et al. RCPs are labeled 2010). according the to approximate global radiative-forcing level 2100, at with2.6 RCP estimating the lowest amount climateof change by the year 2100, and 8.5 RCP estimating the high estamount of climate change by 2100. temperature. Theseclimate projections are derived from generalcirculation also models (GCMs), called global cli mate models. A GCM is a mathematical model of the gen eral circulation of the planet’s atmosphere oceans, or and is based on mathematical equations that represent the physical processes described in figure 3.1. GCMs simulate the responses of changes in greenhouse gas concentra tions,and provide estimates climateof variables in the future (Mishra and Herath,2011). 26 - - - - Figure3.1. Climatemodel data (adopted fromAparicio and Zucker,2015) GCM output the for climate change impact studies local at level. There are various downscaling techniques con to vertthe GCM outputs into locally applicable climate data. Although will we discuss not them in detail here, more informationon downscaling methods can be foundin Mishra and Herath (2011). and circulation that affect local climate generally occur muchat finer scale than that of GCM. Therefore, direct use of GCM outputs is not suitable local for climate change impact assessments, and hence spatial downscaling is required.Spatial downscaling is the process derivingof finer resolution(i.e. local) of climate data from the coarse TheGCM outputs are based oncoarse resolution infor mation orography and (e.g. elevation) the for generation of climatic variables, and are typically of a coarse spatial resolution(hundreds kmof forcing pixel However, size). variables,such as daily monthly or precipitation and standingthe of general trend climateof change and vari isability, important however, impact for assessment and climatechange adaptation. Climate projections are the main tools used understand to the expected impacts of climate change on different sectors of a country. Climate projections consist of a synthetic time-series of climate Climate changeClimate projections is difficultIt precisely to predict the future climate a at specificlocation city uncertainties to town) due or (e.g. fromclimate models and various other sources.Under

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis - https://www.ipcc-data.org/ 27 Figure3.2. GCM data source fromIPCC website asshown below. Now Now click the tab discover, view and download data. This page has all the observed climateReport (AR5)5 observed data,climate change IPCC impacts. AssessmentMost importantly, this page has the global climate model outputs, GoIntergovernmental to Panel onClimate Change(IPCC) datadistribution site: Click“Global Climate Model Output” link, and following page willopen Click the tab “guidance” getto different guidelines regarding how selectto scenarios, fact sheet and scenario process esIPCC for Assessment Report(AR5). 5 This has site both pastclimatological data as well as projected data. c a b d Pleasefollow following stepsdownload to GCM datafrom thissite: Step 1. Downloading data 1. GCM Step AlthoughGCM data can be downloadedfrom varioussources, themost common one is fromIPCC, as shown below. Tutorial - - - ). 28 ., and., the pagebelow will open: http://cfconventions.org/ http://cfconventions.org/ Beforedownloading the data, first youneed to create account by clicking “CreateAccount” top in right corner. webpagedownloading for the climatemodel data. Click “availability” on the left hand side menu and following page will open. Click the “PCMDI” link to go to the Allthe outputs shown here are from The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which relies heavily on the Cou pled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), a large climate modelling process coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The format for GCM output from all the RCP is NetCDF in filescan NetCDF/CF. be opened and visualized in QGIS. For more details, please click the linkview is shown in the outputscreenshot belowformat (an NetCDF/CF over Click “Results from GCM-Runs for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) based on the IPCC-RCP lowingscenarios”,page will andopen. fol To get data a particularfor To location, youneed click to onfollowing link: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/data-portal.html f e g h

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis - - 29 canyour enter user name and password. After clicking the link, add the requested information (email address, user name, password, First/Last name, etc.) and you will receive an “OpenID Login”. After inputting this OpenID and clicking the Login button, you Click on “List Files” for the first model in the list (“MIROC-ESM-CHEM”)…To download mate thedata precipitation(“Precipitation cli flux”), click the “HTTP Download” link for thedownload variablethe To Precipitationdata, numberROC....”. click the“HTTP 25, Download” “pr_Amon_MRlink the for variable “prc_Amon…” “CMIP5”. Next, click the + icon next to “Experiment” and check the box for next“rcp85”. “Variable to LongFinally, Name” and check on the boxes and next Temperature” Onceclick “Precipitation”. “Air to all of the + icon these model components are selected, click the “Search” box and the available models will be displayed. The firstmodel displayed is MIROC-ESM-CHEM, generated by theUniversity ofTokyo, theNational InstituteEnvironmental for Studies,and the JapanAgency Marine-Earth for Science andTechnology. The webpage below will open. Now you can choose which climate model and climate variablesdata to for. Pleasedownload click the + icon next to “Project” to expand the list of projects, and check on the box next to Afterlogging in, click on the CMIP5 link as shownbelow. j l i k 30 To understandTo this layer, click on it in the “Layers” menu. By default, it shows as a “Multiband color” image,modelresults years3 for shown withas a color map. Select theNetCDF file “pr_Anon….” and click “Open”. OpenQGIS software Chapter(See 2 ifremember you don’t this!). do to how Then click Then“Add”. choose the desired coordinate reference system (“WGS 1984”) and click “OK” NetCDF layerin QGIS. to add the Clickon the “Layer” menu and then RasterLayer”. click“Add c e a b d Step 2. Opening model the climate dataStep QGIS in AlthoughGCM data can be downloaded from various sources, the most commonone is fromIPCC, as shown below.

Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis Chapter 3: Climate change scenario analysis - - - 31 Now Now try to download and display the data for the average maximum monthly temperature variable (“tasmax” variable) thenbe multiplied bythe numberdaysof in the month interestof in (i.e. 31 the caseof December). Asyou can see, the resulting map shows the spatial distribution precipitationof the for month Decemberof in the convertyear these 2100. To precipitation fluxmeasurements (in units of tokg/m2/s) average millimeters ofprecip itation these per day, values would need be to multiplied convert by 86,400. monthly to precipitation, To they would (days since 1850-1-1), thissince (days corresponds 1850-1-1), the to month December of in the year 2100. Change this to “Singleband gray” to visualize the climate model results for a datesare indicated singletheby number days of since month.01/01/1850 (January Please select 1850). 01, Band Astime 1140: =91660.5 you can see, the Aparicio, I.G., Zucker, A. (2015) Meteorological data for RES-E10.2790/349276. integration studies- State of the art review; EUR 27587; References f g h biascorrection processes. ClimateChange Adaptation Information https://ap-plat.nies.go.jp/). These Platform downscaled (AP-PLAT: data also typically come in NetCDF format, so the methods presented in this tutorial can be data usedof your to studyvisualize site of interest.downscaled We are, however, happy to provide additional trainings for the downscaling and The globalclimate model results shown in this Chaptervery were coarsein scale (300km300kmx spatial resolu tion). In practice, they would need to be downscaled to a finer resolution using statisticalapproaches, andbias cor rected. Downscaled climate data for different regions are available from various sources including the Asia-Pacific Congratulations, you’ve learned how to download and visualize climate model learned and climate visualize data download to QGIS! in how you’ve Congratulations, - - - - - 32 Perform basicdata collection and pre-processingthe data Estimatecurrent andfuture vulnerability from windand waves Interpret a coastalvulnerability map for risk sensitiveland-use planning After completing the chapter, you will you be chapter, the completing After able to: Inthis will we chapter, learn use to how the Coastal InVEST Vulnerability Model lingtool. This tool can be used measure to and communicate the vulnerability of the shoreline to coastal flooding and erosion by taking into account the local wind/ waveexposure, land elevation, and land-use/land-cover. is InVEST particularly use ful for assessing the benefits of ecosystems interms of shoreline protection, ascan it consider different scenarios, e.g. with and without the presence coastalof eco systems. This chapter will show create you to your how own coastal vulnerability maps, which can visualize help to the threats associated with coastal hazards and the capacitycoastalof ecosystems partially to mitigate thesethreats. Overview of this chapter VEST software Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerabili 4: Coastal Chapter In using assessment ty impact BrianA. Johnson Rajarshi Dasgupta

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software ------at at a user-defined interval(e.g. every 100m along the coast), with the average exposure of each point location coast to alhazards (i.e. average value theof seven input variables thatat location). These values range from 5 to 1 (very low) (very high)coastal exposure. the map inputs and view the modelling results. Therefore, basic a understanding operate to InVEST, GISof software is necessary. You will use some of what you learned in Chapterview to 2 the inputs/outputs InVEST. of The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model calculates an exposure index rank in a five point scale each for point alongcoastline.a The index represents the relative ex posure originating from coastal erosionand inundation caused by storm surges. The index takes account of sev enbio-geophysical variables, relief, namely, ecological characteristicsacross the region, the ratesea-level of rise, the local bathymetry, the topography, relative wind, pop ulation density and wave forcing associated with storms Figure (see 4.1. descriptiona for set to how of and interpret theexposure from are Values values). set 1-5 each for of these seven variables, and the finalresult finaloutput of the model is a geospatial dataset showing points spaced logical benefits, such as food,fodder, recreation etc. Many researchers also regard EbA as Nature-based Solution (NbS). Nature-based solutions (NbS) broadly aim use to na ture in tackling challenges of the climate change, natural disasterand hosta otherof issues such as food security, and water resource management. example, For studies re vealed that mangroves and other coastal ecosystems can providegreat resilience natural to hazards, therefore, res toration and conservation of mangroves are often linked withcoastal development polices. the At same time, resto ration of mangroves can control erosion of muddy coasts, hence,can be considered as EbA measure combat to sea levelrise. In the remainder thisof will we Chapter, intro duce a model that can be used to evaluate the benefits of naturalecosystems in reducing coastal vulnerability to hazards (focusing specfically on storm surge and coastal erosionhazards). 33 ------Main concepts ation. as there However, is functionality no in for InVEST manipulatingviewing or the map inputs/outputs, need we useto other GIS software like QGIS ArcGIS or prepare to to even to global. This an gives it advantage over convention alecosystem service modellingtools, which are generally boundedbyscales and require primaryof lot a data gener and therefore applicable even in data-deficit regions. The spatial resolution of this model is also flexible, allowing users operate to any at scale, ranging from local, regional, lationsin are InVEST the at done pixel scale 30a me (e.g. 30x ter meter grid cell many for commonly used land-use model InVEST is maps). generally requires limited data, inputand generate maps as output. feeds It on spatial in formation,while the scope non-spatialof information that canbe incorporated restricted. but more All theof calcu underwhich development), run independently, as or script toolsin Box environment. the QGIS/ ArcGIS/ All ArcTool of thesemodels are spatially explicit, andthus, use maps as it ecosystemit services modeling tools developed by the famous Natural Capital Project of Stanford University. is InVEST seta 28of biophysical models (many others are InVEST stands InVEST integrated for valuationecosystem of servicesand tradeoffs. This is suitea spatially-explicof InVEST Model InVEST mate-relatedhazards. EbA also ensures variety a ecoof EbAmeasures, including the conserving/restoring/sus tainable management of ecosystems, if they contribute increasing to the resilience localof communities cli to mate change adaptation strategy (Vignola et al., 2009). Various types of measures can broadly be considered as Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is an approach that usesnatural ecosystem services as part holistic a of cli tenbiodiversity hotspots, measures which can effectively utilizenatural ecosystems mitigate to hazards are highly desirable. river floods and landslides). Thus, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation measures are particularly critical in coastal areas. Because coastal areas are also of Coastalareas are exposed hazards to coming from the sea typhoons, (e.g. tsunami, sea-level rise) as well as land (e.g. - - ) h g i y h r e v ( 5 81 - 100 Percentile 100 - 81 81 - 100 Percentile 100 - 81 81 - 100 Percentile 100 - 81 o habitat present habitat o 0 - 20 Percentile 20 - 0 Barrier beach; sand beach; Barrier delta mud flat; beach; ) h g i h ( 4 b 61 - 80 Percentile - 61 61 - 80 Percentile - 61 61 - 80 Percentile - 61 Seagrass; kelp Seagrass; 21 - 40 Percentile 40 - 21 Cobble beach; estuary; beach; Cobble bluff lagoon; ) e t - a r e d mo ( 3 Level of exposure 41 - 60 Percentile 60 41 - 41 - 60 Percentile 60 41 - 41 - 60 Percentile 60 41 - Low dune Low 41 - 60 Percentile 60 41 - Low cliff; glacial drift; drift; cliff; glacial Low plain; alluvial rip-rap revetments; walls 34 ) ow l ( 2 21 - 40 Percentile 40 - 21 21 - 40 Percentile 40 - 21 21 - 40 Percentile 40 - 21 61- 80 Percentile 80 61- Medium cliff; indented indented cliff; Medium and coast; bulkheads seawalls small High dune; marsh dune; High http://releases.naturalcapitalproject.org/invest-userguide/latest/coastal_vulnerability.html. ) ow y l r e v ( 1 0 - 20 Percentile 20 - 0 0 - 20 Percentile 20 - 0 0 - 20 Percentile 20 - 0 Coral reef; mangrove; mangrove; Coral reef; forest coastal 81-100 Percentile 81-100 Rocky; high cliffs; fjord; cliffs; high Rocky; seawalls fiard; Figure4.1. List of Bio-geophysical variables and exposure ranking system in InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Index. Adaptedfrom 4.1 from Table Rank boundary.shp” map (i.e. UTM Zone 51N). If you forgot how to digi tize polylgons in QGIS, refer back Chapter to 2 of this guidebook. (Alternatively, you can use the file thatwe have alreadyprepared, called“AOI.shp”. the “MINDORO_SIMULATION” folder. Digitize a polygon slightly larger than the extent of the “mindoro_ boundary.shp” map, similarly to the figure shownhere. Make sure you are using the same projected coordinates as the “mindoro_ Open QGIS and add the “mindoro_boundary.shp” file, located in Surge Potential Surge ave Exposure ave Sea Level Change Level Sea atural Habitats atural Relief Geomorphology b a units of meters. Generally, the spatial extent covered by the AOI file should be made largerinterest make(to surethan no parts theof the study actual area are excluded). Hence, study when you digitize area an polygonAOI of file, make sure all partsthe of landarea are covered! Continental Shelf Contour, (9) Habitats Table, (10) Population Continental(10) density Habitats ShelfTable, (optional), (9) Contour, and Sea Level (11) rise(Optional). file the AOI Open QGIS and create/display 1: Step For InVEST CVI Modelling, the Area of Interest (AOI) file roughlydelineates the outer boundary of thefile study should site. The AOI be a polygonvector file (i.e. .shp file) having ‘projected’a coordinate system,which must be displayed inthe components,data preparation is the primary task, and any GIS software can be used data for preparation. The following examples are created using the QGIS. simulation, For will we use a dataset Mindoro for island, Philippines. As mentioned above, CVI requires the following datasets, namely the Area (1) of Interest Landmass(2) (shapefile), WaveWat (shapefile),(3) chIIIvector data (grid points as well as wave and wind variables that represent storm conditions that Maxi at location), (4) Distance, mumFetch (5)Bathymetry in raster format, Digital Elevation (6) Model (7) (raster), Elevation averaging radius, (8) Tutorial Inthe following tutorial, you will learn run to how the Coastal InVEST Vulnerability Index model. As with other InVEST

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software - 35 Add the “Bathymetry_mindoro.tif” file in QGIS. This file containsbathymetry for almostPhilippines.This the isthe officialentire datadownloaded extent from the geological of survey the of the country. Pleaseadd the file “WAVewatchIII_global.shp” in QGIS. model The InVEST will automatically take the data from the nearestpoints the to study area, needso not do we crop and to edit this data. Add the“landmass_polygon_Mindoro.shp” file in to QGIS visualizeit a a a values are masked before calculating the average depth So is along it okay if a fetch ray. this raster also includes onshoreelevation data. This raster input is used to find average waterdepths required for waveheight and period calculations.Please note that bathymetry values should be negative (in meters below The sea-level). raster should cover the entire offshore area extending beyond the by least at the AOI distance of the Maximum Distance. Fetch All nodata and positive Step 4: Display and Edit the local Bathymetry and Edit Display 4: Step data This vector contains a grid of points as well as wave and wind variables that represent storm conditions that at location. These variables are used to compute the Wind and ExposureWave ranking of each shoreline segment. In VESTmodel suppliesnearly the entireocean coveragethis for type data.of Step 3: Display the WaveWatchIII vectorin QGIS file the WaveWatchIII Display 3: Step land mass polygon shape file isprovided asdefault in InVEST , but you mayprefer to createalready extracted one theinpolygon boundary QGIS.We Mindoro for Island have the for sakethis of tutorial. Step 2: Create a Landmass Create 2: in QGIS shape file Step TheLandmass polygon input provides the model with map a allof landmasses in the region interest.of globalA - 36 Add thefile entitled Mindoro_DEM.tif in QGIS. Note that the file extends way beyondthe Minodoro Island. Load the Mangroves.shp, Swampt.shp, Openforests.shp, and Closedforest.shp files, located inside the “MINDORO_ SIMULATION\Mindoro_Habitat” folder. Using QGIS,open the file called continental_shelf_polyline_global.shp. a a a Step 7: Display the Habitat Maps and Tables the Habitat Maps and Tables Display 7: Step In this step, will we load habitat maps of the will study We site. load polygon shapefiles showing mangroves, swamp forests, and inland forests (open and closed forests), all of which have definite roles windinand waves. protectingThese maps can be easily prepared theif you have detaileda coastland use map theof from study area. the For sakethisof tutorial,have we alreadyprepared them. Step 6: Display 6: Step Continental Shelf Contour Thisis polylinea input that represents the location the of continental margin other or locally-important bathyme trymust It be contour. within 1500 km the of coastline inthe area interest. of A DigitalA Elevation Model (DEM) is used compute to the Relief ranking eachof shoreline segment. should It provide elevation information coveringthe entire land polygonand some areasextending beyond the AOI. Step 5: Display and Edit the Digital Elevation Model the DigitalElevation and Edit Display 5: Step

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software - 37 Assign the rank and protection distance values as shown in the image below. OnceNatural_Habitat.csv. Please done, make sure saveas to please.csv it file (not an .xlssave file!). the file as spaces allowed), path is the location and filename of the habitatGIS layer, rank is an exposure value ranging from 4.1. description a for Table 5 (see to 1 theof values each for habitattype), and protection distance is the(m) distance inmeters beyond which thishabitat will provide protection no the to coastline. Create a new table in MS Excel other (or spreadsheet software). The table must have the headers “rank”,“id”, “path”, “protection distance (m)” in the top row, as shown below. It should contain four columns, i.e. id is a text string (no pink, and swamps as lightgreen, as inthe mapbelow). Assign a different color each for type mangroves of habitat (e.g. as purple, open forests as green, closed forests as The next task is to instruct the InVEST model how to read this shapefile.For this,we need structto createthe modelon a habitatlayer inputs table andparameters. to in c b d - - - 38 b model. Incase youdefine, not do model the will arbitrarily foldercreate one documents. my under For For Workspace, create a folder by the name of coastal_vilnerability_workspace under my documents where all your intermediate and results files will be stored. It is recommendedto create anew directory for each run of the vest. Alternatively, you can find the installation file (InVEST_3.9.0_x64_Setup.exe) insidethe MINDORO_SIMULA Run TIONfolder. through theinstallation process. Gothe to start menuPlease and once there note you click open would InVEST, InVEST. be display allof the avail able models.Please click onthe coastalvulnerability model. Download and install InVEST from the following https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/in website: a a b Oncethe model interface is displayed, please assign the path the to different data set you prepared in the last steps. your For convenience, the folder titled MINDORO_SIMULATION contains all the required filesto run the simulation. Please follow thebelow mentioned instructions Step 10: Model 10: interfaceStep and data input Step 9: Open InVEST Coastal Model Vulnerability Open 9: InVEST Step Onceyou are withdone data preparation, willwe start now the modelling Step 8: Geomorphology /Population (Optional modules) Geomorphology 8: (Optional Step /Population can alsoYou add the regional geomorphology and population information, thehowever, model can run without these information.the timeFor being,will we skip these two modules.

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software - - - 39 Setthe model resolution parameter (meters) 1000. to This value determines the spacing between shore points and expressed in the unitsmeters. of A larger value will yield shore fewer points but a faster computation time. is It recommended keepto 1000to it unless the extent of study area is not excessively small. may go for higher You res olution in that case.higher Please for note resolution, themodel will run longer for time, sometimes inhours. For Area select Interest of For (vector), theAOI.shp file from the MINDORO_SIMULATION folder. Habitat folder. For For Continental Shelf Contour, add the continental_shelf_polyline_global.shp file from the MINDORO_SIMULA TION folder. For Habitats Table, please add the habitat table Natural_habitats.csv from the MINDORO_SIMULATION/Mindoro_ For Elevation For averaging radius, set as the it default value 5000.of This is the radius in meters around each shore pointwithin which compute to theaverage elevation. For Digital For Elevation Model,add thedem_utm_Clip.tif file from the MINDORO_SIMULATION folder. For Bathymetry, For please add the bathymetry_mindoro.tif file from the MINDORO_SIMULATION folder. For maximumFor fetch distance, use the default value of 10000. A numeric value in meters should be used this, for whichwill determine the degree which to shore points are exposed oceanic to waves. shoreA point is only ex posedoceanic to wave energy if, in some direction around the point, landmass no is intersected casting when a raythe lengthof this max fetch distance. For Landmass, For select the landmass_polygon_Mindoro.shp fromthe MINDORO_SIMULATION folder. j i f c e g b d h - 40 Please check whether all the required fields are marked withGreen checks, as shown above. If yes, Hit Run. Ifnot, please recheck the data. Depending on the resolution of the model, will it take some time run to the entire simula tion. Oncecomplete, you willget confirmation a window like following.the For thisFor tutorial, will we use not the optional geomorphology, population, and sea-levelrise datasets. If you have this datayour for own studyplease site, use it. l k

Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software Chapter 4: Coastal vulnerability impact assessment using InVEST software - - - 41 Addmapa title, legend, scale bar and north arrow twowith for maps (one coastal habitats conserved, one without coastalAgain, habitats). check Chapter2 if you this. do forgot to how your maps Now, are complete! Add the coastal_exposure file in QGIS, andmodify the color schemeto range vulnerabilityfromlow as shown (red), in vulnerabilitythe map legends If you change below. forgot to how the color scheme theof layer (blue)in to high QGIS, referback Chapter to 2. Vignola,R., Locatelli, B., Martinez, C., and Imbach, (2009). Ecosystem-based P. adaptation to climatechange: cy-makers,what role for poli society and scientists?. Mitigation andadaptation strategies for globalchange, 691-696. 14(8), References http://releases.naturalcapitalproject.org/invest-userguide/latest/index.html You can learn You frommore the online trainingmanual Congratulations, you’ve learned the basics using Coastal InVEST Modelling of Vulnerability you’ve Congratulations, a b posure with habitat and no habitat column to understand the contribution of coastal ecosystem services. product should Your finallook something like this. file isa geodatabasewhich contain the exposure shape file)(2) An excel filecontaining of coastal_exposure.gpkg the detailedprovided in attributecsv table format for convenience. mayYou further wish to modify or add to the col umns of this table in case you wish to make customized scenarios. In order to display the file, please select the ex Step 10: Open 10: the workspaceStep the files and display In the output folder, you will get mainly two files.(1) A point vector file bythe name of coastal_exposure.gpkg (.gpkg - 42 Understandthe basics of how climate change and land-use change affect local sea-level riseimpacts; Perform sea-level rise modeling using SLAMM software; Visualizethe impactsof sea-levelrise under different climateand land-use scenarios. chapter, you chapter, will learn run to how SLAMM using different land-use and sea-level risescenarios, and visualize theoutputs theof modeling. will you be chapter, the completing After able to: Overview of this chapter Climatechange is already resulting in global sea-level rise, and is expected cause to further rises in sea level in the future as the climate continues warm. to The rates and impactsof sea-level rise vary fromlocation location, to beingaffected by many factorsincluding local sea-level rise rates, land subsidence/uplift rates, and soil accretion/erosion rates in coastal areas. The latter can be significantly affected by changes in land-use land or management practices. This chapter gives an overview theof impacts sea-levelof rise, and demonstrates perform to how sea-level rise analysis using the free SLAMM level (Sea affecting marshes model) software. In the el Affecting Marshes Model Model Marshes Affecting el (SLAMM) Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact impact rise Sea-level 5: Chapter Sea-Lev the using assessment BrianA. Johnson

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) ------timates of their soil accretion rates tend be to than lower thosemangrove of ecosystems (Linhoss etal., 2014). Mangrovesare particularlya important coastal ecosys tem, asthey build-up help to the soilalong thecoastline, whichraises the land elevation and thus reduces the im pactssea-levelof rise and other coastal hazards (Figure rates of soil Average 5.2.). accretion in mangrove ecosys temsare estimated be to 5.8mm/year (Alongi et al., 2018), whichis higher than the global average sea-level rise Mangrove rate. ecosystems also mitigate majora cause of sea-levelrise greenhouse- gas emissions bysequester– ingtC/ha) an annually average gC/m2 of171 (~1.9 (Alongi Other etal., types 2018). coastalof wetland ecosystems also help mitigate sea-level rise varying to degrees, but es Asia and Oceania. Various datasets containing historical sea-levelrise rates exist, including those derived from sat ellitemeasurements (https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/ AVISO_L4_DYN_TOPO_1DEG_1MO), and tide gauges (e.g. GlobalSea Level Observing System: https://www.psmsl. org/gloss/). Tide gauge measurements have the benefit of also accounting land for subsidence/uplift (another im portantfactor affecting local sea-level rise impacts), but their coverage is limited more (both geographically and temporally) than thatsatelliteof measurements. 43 ------Figure5.1. Spatial variabilityof sealevel changes. Figure Source:1, FAQ13.1 from Church etal. (2013). Main concepts tion strategies. like zoningenhancement ensure to (e.g. zerominimal or developmentin extremely hazard-prone should areas) be importantcomponents coastalof climate change adapta impacts aside from providing other benefits like reducing coastalerosion, mitigating storm surge, providing habitat, food, and fiber. Thus, NbS, aswell asother “soft” measures phoonswith high storm surge, tsunami). or On the other hand, nature-based solutions (NbS), which were also dis cussedin Chapter 4, can also help mitigate sea-level rise hardinfrastructure measures are costly build to and maintain,and may fail in extreme cases during (e.g. ty Sea-levelrise impacts can be mitigated some to degree usingseawalls and other hard barriers. these However, 5.1., sea-level rise rates tend be to quite high in Southeast 2009). Local2009). sea-level rise rates can vary significantly fromthe global average, as can be seen in the map hisof toricalsea-level changes in Figure 5.1. As seen in Figure endof the century, comparedthe to 2005 level(IPCC, 2019). The average global sea-level rise in recent years is esti mated to be around 2.8-3.2mm/year (Church and White, ernmentalPanel onClimate Change (IPCC), the global mean sea level is expected rise to by 0.29-1.1 meters by the According climate to change projections of the Intergov - - - . We have https://github.com/WarrenPinnacle/SLAMM6.7 ingsea-level rise impacts conversion undevelopedof (e.g. developed or dry land wetlands to (in the case frequent of inundation)even or open water (in the case permanentof urban inundation). Within the model, sea-level rise is off setby sedimentation and accretion theof land in coastal ecosystems,and the accretion and erosion rates differof coastal ent ecosystems can be set the for analysisof site (e.g. according to field surveysor estimates from existing literature). user-defined future sea-level rise scenarios, and outputs maps of future land-use/land cover conditions consider 44 - - - - - Figure5.2. Functions of mangrove ecosystemsin coastal protection. Source: http://www.nature.org/media/oceansandcoasts/mangroves-for-coastal-defence.pdf “SLAMM6.7_64-bit.exe”. Double-click “SLAMM6.7_64-bit.exe”. this file and follow the installation instructions to install SLAMM. Step 1. Installing SLAMM software The latest version of SLAMM can be downloaded from GitHub: already downloaded the most recent version, SLAMMand it 6.7, is stored in the folder entitled “SLAMM6.7-master”. Please navigate to this folder, and then the “INSTALL\Release\Single” subfolder, where you can find the file “” double-clickthe file Tutorial This tutorial focuses on sea-level rise modeling using the free SLAMM software. We have provided all of the data tutorial for this in thefolder entitled “SLAMM_training”. has been applied in many different globally sites esti to mate sea-levelrise impacts. SLAMM canconsider various titatively using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), a free software. The first version of SLAMM was developedin the mid with 1980’s funding from the Envi ronmental Protection Agency of the (Park US et al., 1986). Since then, has it undergone many improvements, and Clearly, Clearly, coastal areas benefit fromprotecting andrestor ing these ecosystems, but the benefits may be difficult to quantify without the use of computer simulation mod eling. In the remainder of this focus chapter, we on how sea-levelrise impact assessmentcan bemodeled quan

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) - 45 fornia Categories instead of classic SLAMM Categories; if this appears, click “No”). A new menu will appear. Please typethe SLAMMSimulation name and Description as shown below. Click “New Simulation” to start configuring themodel. (A dialog box mightappear asking if you wantto use Cali Click “Save As” save to the new model in the “SLAMM_training\SLAMM_training_outputs” Please name folder. the file “Mindoro”. OpenSLAMM from theWindows start menu. Themain menu SLAMM of should appear. c a b d installit. Step 2. Open SLAMMStep the sakeFor of this tutorial, have we already downloaded QGIS and provided you to with it this training package. Let’s 46 DEM File “dem_utm.txt”(elevation): SLAMM Categories (NWI): “landuse_openwater.txt” [Thisis the land-use map] File:SLOPE “slope_utm2.txt” of theof model’s outputs will be saved in this designatedand folder, willhave file names starting with mindoro. Set the Base Output File Name. Name the file as “mindoro”, and to it save the “SLAMM_training_outputs” folder. All Click“Save simulation” save to these inputfiles. Then click to exit“OK” the File Setupmenu. whichare found in the“SLAMM_inputs” as the folder, following: Clickthe “FileSetup” button set to theinput dataSLAMM. for SLAMM requires, minimum at a digital elevation model, a land-use map, and a slope map. Set these files, c a b Step 3. File setup in SLAMM setup in File 3. Step

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) - 47 Check on the “slope_utm” map layer to visualize it. This is a slope map generated from the DEM file, with each grid cellhaving a value indicating thepercent slope thatat location (0-90 degrees). Please open all three of the .tif files in the “SLAMM_inputs” folder using QGIS.QGIS, referback Chapter to instructions!for 2 If you forgothow to open filesin txt” file in theWindows Explorerto open You it. will see atext filewith numbers (elevation values, and nodata val andues) locational information (number of columns and rows of the DEM, the coordinates the for left lower corner of the DEM, and the cell size of the DEM). This text file also has a corresponding.tif filewith the same name, which can be opened using QGIS. The other input files (landuse_openwater, slope_utm2) also have correspondingfiles. .tif These files that you have input in Step 3 are in ASCII(.txt) format, i.e.text files. Try double-clickingthe “dem_utm. representingmeters above verticala datum called (North NAVD88 AmericanVertical Datum1988). Check on the “dem_utm” map layer to visualize it. This is the DEM file, with each grid cell having a elevation value c a b d Step 4. Visualize the input files 4. Visualize the input QGIS using Step - - 1 2 8 9 15 19 code SLAMM Mangrove Open Ocean Open Inland Open ater Open Inland Developed Dry Land Developed Undeveloped Dry Land Dry Undeveloped Corresponding NWI class Regularly Flooded Marsh (Saltmarsh) Marsh Flooded Regularly 48 Ocean Built-up Mangrove Forest Mangrove Marshland/Swamp Inland ater, Fishpond ater, Inland Original land-use class(es) Annual Crop, Perennial Crop, Brush/Shrubs, Crop, Perennial Crop, Annual Closed Forest, Open Forest, Grassland, Open/Barren Grassland, Forest, Open Forest, Closed Click “Site Parameters” to start the setup. A list of several differentparameters will pop inup new menu. a sideof the island see to thedifferent land-use/land-covertypes present. Try changingTry the colors of the map match to as the image refer If back you below. Chapter forgot to how, 2 (hint: try double-clicking the layer and changing the symbology to “Paleted/Unique Also Colors)”. try zooming in to the East because it was generated from the “mindoro_2015” land-use map that we used in Chapter 2, with the original land- use classes converted to corresponding NWI classes as shown in the below. (Note: Table Descriptions for all of the SLAMM classeswill be shownlater in the Chapter). Check on the “landuse_openwater_utm” fileto visualizeit. This is a land-use map, with each grid cell having anu merical value corresponding to a NWI (national wetlands inventory) land-use class. If this map looks familiar, it’s f e a Now let’s set Now the parameters site the for SLAMM model. As the name suggests, parameters site may be location-spe cific, so should ideally be identified based on local information/statistics or field surveys. Step 5. Setting 5. parameters. the site Step

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) - escriptionrationale escriptionrationale 49 This is the year of the land-use map used. the of year the is This 2000: February in acquired was which used, was data SRTM acquired. was data elevation the which in year the is This https://www.usgs.gov/centers/eros/science/usgs-eros-archive-digital-elevation-shuttle-radar-topography-mission-srtm- 1-arc). e are interested in modeling the sea-level rise on the Eastern side of the island. the of side Eastern the on rise sea-level the modeling in interested are e measurements satellite on based calculated was which rate, rise sea-level local the is This (https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/aviso-satellite-derived-sea-surface-height-above-geoid) This is the value recommended in the SLAMM Technical Documentation, and is based on IPCC estimates of global of estimates IPCC on based is and Documentation, Technical SLAMM the in recommended value the is This rise rates. sea-level SRTM elevations are already relative to AVD88 (instead of the mean tide level (MTL)), so no correction is necessary. necessary. is correction no so (MTL)), level tide mean the of (instead AVD88 to relative already are elevations SRTM Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014) Linhoss from estimates on Based This is the average difference between the sea height at high and low tides low and high at height sea the between difference average the is This to be regularly flooded and is considered level located below this land and water mark, 30-day high estimated the is This wetlands. to convert to likely thus for. data have not do we that parameter Optional et al. (2014) Linhoss from estimates on Based Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014) Linhoss from estimates on Based et al. (2014) Linhoss from estimates on Based Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014) Linhoss from estimates on Based Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014) from Linhoss estimates on Based et al. (2014) from Linhoss estimates on Based Based on estimates of average accretion rate of mangroves, from from of mangroves, rate accretion average of estimates on Based https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-91698-93 et al. (2014) Linhoss from estimates on Based et al. (2014) Linhoss from estimates on Based training. this for necessary ot blank. leave so available, data o blank. leave so available, data o blank. leave so available, data o blank. leave so available, data o blank. leave so available, data o Based on estimates from Linhoss et al. (2014) Linhoss from estimates on Based blank. leave so available, data o blank. leave so available, data o training. this for necessary ot 1 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.5 1.7 1.9 5.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 7.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 2015 East 2000 FALSE FALSE Value Parameter DEM Date () Date DEM MTL-AVD88 (m) MTL-AVD88 Reg-Flood Collapse (m) Collapse Reg-Flood Historic Trend (mm/yr) Trend Historic I Photo Date () Date Photo I Mangrove Accr (mm/yr) Accr Mangrove Irreg-Flood Collapse (m) Collapse Irreg-Flood Salt Elev. (m above MTL) above (m Elev. Salt Beach Sed. Rate (mm/yr) Rate Sed. Beach Marsh Erosion Fetch (km) Fetch Erosion Marsh Swamp Accretion (mm/yr) Accretion Swamp Direction Offshore [n,s,e,w] Offshore Direction T.Flat Erosion (horz. m /yr) m (horz. Erosion T.Flat Tidal Swamp Accr (mm/yr) Accr Swamp Tidal Marsh Erosion (horz. m /yr) m (horz. Erosion Marsh Swamp Erosion (horz. m /yr) m (horz. Erosion Swamp H1 inundation (m above MTL) above (m inundation H1 MTL) above (m inundation H1 MTL) above (m inundation H1 MTL) above (m inundation H1 MTL) above (m inundation H1 Reg.-Flood Marsh Accr (mm/yr) Accr Marsh Reg.-Flood Type the parameter Type values in the menu, using the values indicated The below. in description the Table and rationale eachfor parameter/value are provided. [If you want run to SLAMM a different for study in site the future, these val uesshould beadjusted match to the local conditions.] Click“Save Simulation Click“Ok” close to themenu Click“Export Excel” to export to the parametersettings that you defined. Historic Eustatic Trend (mm/yr) Trend Eustatic Historic GT Great Diurnal Tide Range (m) Range Tide Diurnal GT Great Tidal-Fresh Marsh Accr (mm/yr) Marsh Tidal-Fresh Irreg.-Flood Marsh Accr (mm/yr) Accr Marsh Irreg.-Flood Inland-Fresh Marsh Accr (mm/yr) Accr Marsh Inland-Fresh Inland-Fresh Marsh Accr (mm/yr) Accr Marsh Inland-Fresh Use ave Erosion Model [True,False] Model ave Erosion Use c e b d - - 50 flooding). Under Optional Under land covers, check “Flooded Developed DryLand”. Under Protection scenarios run,to check “Don’t Thisprotect”. means that developed land may become permanent inundated ly if falls it below the sea level (i.e. assuming countermeasures no will be implemented prevent the to Check “Include “No-dataDikes”, Elevs Loadedas Blanks”, and “Use Soil Saturation”. puttest to scenarios. new Check “NoMaps (Quicker ThisExecution)”. will speedthe up runningof the model. Check the boxes “1 meter”, “1.5 meters”, and “2 meters”. We will simulate a meter 1-2 sea-level rise by 2100 scenario (compared the to base Other year of 1990). scenarios can alternatively be selected, customized or values can be in Click “Execute” in the main menu. A new menu will pop up entitled “SLAMMExecution Options”. f c e a b d Step 6. Set rise the sea-level parametersStep period and simulation that Now theparameters site areset, will we start runningthe SLAMM modeldifferent for sea-level rise scenarios.

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) 51 Click “Execute” to run the SLAMM model! It may take quite a long time (30 minutes or longer, run.to computer) dependingOnce has it finished, on clickOK. your Makesure everything matches the“SLAMM Execution Options” windowshown above, andsave thesimulation. Finally, check the “Save Inundation-Frequency Rasters”. This will output maps showing the inundation frequency each at location. Click O.K. Check “Save output for GIS” and click the “GIS File Options” box. A new window will GIS appear. fileClick in yearson shown“Only below”, andwrite type 2050, 2100. Thismeans that maps of the simulation results will be output the for years 2050and 2100. For For the last year of the simulation, type 2100, and check “Run the model for Thisspecificmeans themodel will years”,produce outputs the andfor years 2050 and type2100. 2050, 2100. j i g k h 52 Under Under “Override the projection for the output file(optional)”, select “WGS 84 / UTM zone51N”. proper coordinates This theto map output. will give the Clickon the “Raster” menu item,highlight and then “Conversion”, click on“Translate Format”. (Convert) “Input Under Layer”,click the icon … and navigate the to file “mindoro_2100,_GIS.ASC”.meter 2 OpenQGIS (if isalreadyit not If open). isit stillopen from earlier, you canjust enlarge the samewindow. c a b d Step 6.Visualizing the model outputsStep using QGIS You will see that several new files have been created in the “SLAMM_training_outputs”mapsfolder. of Thethe ASClandscape filesin are the future, considering sea-level rise impacts. However, we need to convert the ASC files back .tifto files and add coordinate informationto visualize these maps in QGIS.

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) 53 A new map layer will appear, entitled “Converted”. This is the output map for the year sea-level rise scenario. 2100 The consideringvalues of the map are theSLAMM a codes (i.e. land-use). 2m Navigate to the “SLAMM_training_outputs” folder, check that the file type will be savedname asthe “TIFfile “mindoro2100_2m”.files(*.tif)”, Click and the “Save”icon (the menu will close), and then click the Translate(Convert window. “Run” Finally,Format) clickicon the “Close” icon. in the Scroll down in the Translate (Convert Format) window until you see the “Converted” menu item. Clickand “Savefile” new to open to new a thewindow. … icon f e g - - 54 Flooded urban area urban area Flooded in purple. shown various changes in vegetation (e.g. changes from undeveloped dry land to transitional/regularly flooded marshes mangroves)or by comparing the2100 and maps 2015 indifferent locations. Zoomin the to upper right part theof island (shown in the red view to box above) the sea-level rise impacts in more detail. canYou see purple areas in the zoomed-in map. These are locations where urban areas (i.e. developed land)dry is expected to be permanently inundated by 2100 if 2m sea-level rise occurs. You will also be able to notice assigningrepresentativea each color for SLAMMcode, change the label for it in QGIS to the “Category Name” shown in the Table for easier interpreta tion. Thefinal result will a be map like that shown below. showing Table the land-use/land-cover information each for SLAMM code Number).Source: (GIS SLAMM Technical6.7 documentation coloringthe SLAMM code values the of map2100 match to those theof 2015 map.There are additional values in the map2100 that in not were the 2015, soyou can choose colors new these for values. The land-use/land-cover typeassociated with each SLAMM code can be found below in the Table theof 3 (takenSLAMM from Table Technical 6.7 documentation.pdf). After You You can now compare the 2015 SLAMM code map (“landuse_openwater_ UTM”) with this 2100 SLAMM code map to see the changes that occur inthe landscape 2m due to of sea-level rise (compared 1990 base to Try year). i h Congratulations, you’ve learned the basics running SLAMM of and the visualizing outputs! you’ve Congratulations, information more For on SLAMM and its uses, please refer the to SLAMM Technical Documentation was (which in stalled on yourPC with thesoftware).

Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Chapter 5: Sea-level rise impact assessment using the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) - - - - 55 ner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Pet J. Okem, A. Nicolai, M. Alegría, A. Mintenbeck, K. Poloczanska, E. Tignor, M. Zhai, P. IPCC, Summary 2019: for Policymakers. Masson-Delmotte, In: IPCC V. Special Report Roberts, on the OceanD.C. and Cryospherener, in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pört zold, B. Rama,N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Linhoss, A. C., Kiker, G., Shirley, M., and Frank, K. (2015). Sea-level rise, inundation, and marsh migration:developed Simulating landsand environmental impacts on systems. Journal ofCoastal Research,36-46. 31(1), 129-152 Coastal Pages Wetlands. Rise Predicting on Level Sea Effects the of and Cloonan, C.L.. (1986). R. A.,Armentano, Park, T.V., in G.J. Titus, ed. Effects of Changes in StratosphericOzone and Global Climate, Sea 4: Vol. Level Rise. U.S. EnvironmentaltectionAgency, Washington, Pro D.C. Alongi, MangroveM. D. (2018). forests. In Blue Carbon (pp. 23-36).Springer, Cham. Church, J. A. and White, N. J. (2011). Sea-level rise from the late 19th602. to the early 21st century. Surveys in geophysics, 32(4), 585- Church, Clark, J.A., A. P.U. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Merrifield, G.A.A.J. Milne, Payne,Pfeffer, R.S.P.D.W.T. Nunn,Nerem, D. Stammer and A.S. Unnikrishnan, ence2013: SeaBasis. Level Contribution Change. of In:Working ClimateGroup I to theChange Fifth 2013: AssessmentThe Physical ReportQin, D. [Stocker,Sci G.-K. Plattner, ofT.F., theM. Tignor, IntergovernmentalS.K. Allen, Boschung, J. PanelA. Nauels, onXia, Bex and ClimateMidgley Y. V. P.M. (eds.)].Cambridge Change University Press,Cambridge, United KingdomUSA. and NY, New York, References - 56 UseWEAP software to estimate thegroundwater quality in the coastalaquifers; Integrate futurepopulation projections,infrastructure-related information, land-use, and climate informationdevelop to different scenarios of the futurewater quality. conductseveral different types scenarios,of understand to and model the impacts of population growth, infrastructure development, land-use change, and climate changeon water quality. will you be chapter, the completing After able to: hence demand, land-use, and climate all result in modificationof the groundwater qualitydevelopment. Especially this will besensitive more arewe when talking aboutcoastal aquifers because have here we delicatea balance between sea water- fresh Also water. because of any tiny disturbances in the above mentioned factors and drivers, this equilibrium between freshwater seawater- body get affected and saltwater plume intrude toward inland aquifers and pollute them which is also calledgroundwater salinization. This Chapter will show simulate you to how the future groundwater quality in the coastal aquifers using the “Water Evaluation and Planning System” (WEAP) soft ware package, which is free for users in developing countries. You will learn to Overview of this chapter Groundwaterquality and itsevolution is closely linked human to activities (e.g. waterextraction demand, or interaction, rock-water land-use/land-management) as well as local different hydro-climatic conditions. Thus, changes in population Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) (WEAP) Planning and Evaluation tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact impact Groundwater 6: Chapter Water the using assessment Pankaj Kumar Pankaj BrianA. Johnson

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool - - - - - River and estuaries River Backwater effect Seepage transpiration - Countermeasures Infiltration surface water Infiltration surface water recharge natural Increase barrierPhysical evapo precipitation Change in natural recharge natural in Change - - Changes in hydrological regime Changes in hydrological factorsincluding population growth, urbanization, and climate change in the target cities. While building and runningnumerical simulation, had we active discussion with local counterparts to improve the models to fitto the real situation, and show to future situation with planned mitigation measures groundwater for management in year2030. the capacities of the stakeholders involved in water man agement.creating For science-based evidence, aimed we assess to water quality under various scenarios key of The hydrogeological/hydrogeochemical study coastal at aquifers decipher to the hydrological processes is con sistently being research hot during topic the past few decades, motivated by both scientific interest and societal relevance; considering the fact that many coastal aquifers inthe world, especially shallow ones, experiencing an in tensivesalt water intrusion caused byboth natural as well as man-induced processes (Oude Essink, Integrated 2001). approach of geochemical analysis and hydrological mod eling proved as an efficienttool to understand interaction betweengroundwater and surrounding its environment which contribute its better to management (Kumar et al., Especially2017). coastal for aquifers, transdisciplinary and integrated approach is an efficient investigativetool understand to the aquifer matrix chemistry and water– rock interaction along the flow path in the aquiferto trace groundwaterevolution and mechanism saltof water – freshwater mixing. Diagram showing list keyof factors affectingcoastal aquifers, their effects and countermea suremanage to this precious resource is shown in Figure 6.1. 57 ------GW resources GW Effects , natural) , Coastal Aquifers Coastal Salt water Intrusion Salt water Decrease degradation Ecosystem ) Figure6.1. Drivers affecting coastal aquiferand their management options reclamation subsidence (anthropogenic subsidence - Relatively sea level rise level sea Relatively Groundwater extraction Groundwater level GW Lowering Land Mining (gas, oil, sand Human activities Human Land uplift Tectonic zone Coastal Coastal erosion Coastal Shoreline retreat Tidal effect Main concepts sion-making, and the involvement of local stakeholders inthe process can improve the modeling results by (e.g. betteraccounting the for local context) as well as build contaminanttransport and consideringfate its different keydrivers and pressures. These tools are useful in that their outputs providescience-based evidence decifor source,scientific information future onits status is re quired. that, do have we various To scientific tools like etc., which MODFLOW can be used predict to SWAT, WEAP, For the sustainableFor management of this precious re piration, precipitation, recharge amount) also leads to change in sea water fresh – water equilibrium and favors the groundwater salinization (Kumar et al 2012). effect),sea level rise, backwater effect, seepage through the geological formations (presence of inland faults/frac ture), and change in hydraulic regime evapotrans (e.g. coastal zonesApart (Ozler 2003). fromhuman activities mentionedabove, natural processes like processes at coastal coastal zone (e.g. erosion, shoreline retreat, tidal tural development and economic activities, the shortage freshof groundwater domestic, for agricultural, and in dustrial purposes becomes striking more particularly in the influence of groundwater development. Seawater intrusionis the ingress seawaterof into coastal aquifers, which in turn affects the quality of groundwater. Due to increasingconcentration humanof settlements, agricul ter in coastal regions complicates its diligent sustainable management(Kumar intrusion Salt-water et al., 2013). is the migration of saltwater into freshwater aquifers under effects cause complicated groundwater flow and contam inant transport phenomena in regions adjacent the to coast. Lack of regular monitoring networks groundwa for Coastalaquifers can bedistinguished from other aquifers becausetheir of dynamiccoastal boundary,tidal where ------gauge stations, ground water supply and finally different types of links (return flow, transmissionflow, and runoff/ infiltration)were used to finalize model set-up. Scenario analysis is carried out by defining a time hori which zonfor alternative groundwater extraction and ef fectdifferentof management options are explored, which is2030 in this case. The business as usual condition is representedby referencea scenario withselection of all the existing elements as currently active. Future scenario with for mitigation no measures includes effect climateof change, land use land cover changes and population growth.scenario Under withmitigation measures, rain waterharvesting is considered which release the pressure on groundwater extraction. The baseline year under the current reference scenario all for study areas also varies basedon the past dataavailabilities. ulation, an essential input parameter water for quality modeling. Other benefits of WEAP are that it is not data intensive,and is it freely available people to in developing countries. The WEAP model is used to simulate water budget and water quality variables in target year i.e. 2030, Data of im portant water quality indicators (major ions with particu larfocus on chloride) spatio-temporal at scale ground for waterwas used calibration for and validation water of quality modulethe of WEAPsoftware. 58 ------area.Here, demand denote domesticsites (population) de fined with theirattributes explaining water consumption andwastewater discharge in concerned Here aver river. age per day per capita groundwater extraction is liter 70 per day per capita. Apart of this, need do we plot river to of river and its major tributaries being represented by respective WEAP nodes. Other major considerations are manydemand (number sites usually depend ad on lower ministrative unit of study area by which data is available), groundwater as a water supply source the to demand sites accuratelyto represent the current situation of the study the study area and river map is imported in WEAP soft ware.After tracing the river on the manually, it of top we create out problem domain. The problem whole domain its different(and components) is divided into several sub-catchments, which have been further subdivided into differentsub-basins, consider to influent locations First, vector raster or file of administrative boundary of Water qualityWater Model set-up Model set-up el from a catchment to nearby water bodies. WEAP can supportenvironmental master planning functionalities byaccounting wastewater for generation and treatment, and includes a catchment module rainfall-runoff for sim (WEAP) tool, a computer modeling tool that takes into ac count hydrological and water quality components anto alyze/simulate the current/future water quality. WEAP is widely used as a decision support tool integrated for water resourcesmanagement and planning. The model allows the for estimation rainfallof runoff and pollutant trav This chapter presents the Water Evaluation and Planning

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool - - - - % % 5 .5 .5 / ep 0 5 0 St l m 0 0 1 ue / U al 0 % 5 V

0 / CF 0 0 al r 1 i 5 o L nit I g/ m ad e latedand observed concentration waterof quality param eters in particular chloride two for at monitoring wells. Main parameters adjusted herestep at by step basis are initial concentration chloride of in the groundwater and rate of rate of drawdown. Correlation between observed and simulated values once statistically satisfied con to firm suitability of themodel performance in thisproblem domain, future simulation both for water quality and hy drological parametersinitiated. were h r ve i r 59 rs e nd t - - - - e a e t i aram n s o p i y t at i v r e s qual b r e o e h wat t o t i d n t a o a i h t at n r o arge t o i h b i p c i s at ns c r t o e di l i

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l e nfi r o t i Table 3.2. Table Summary of parameters andsteps usedfor calibration. ve e h nt i ff/ e e us nc o uno ffect aram o c H R E P WEAPcan model largenumber of pollutants GIS-based, graphical dragdrop& interface Scenariomanagement capabilities Freeavailable developing for countries A highly flexiblehydrologic-water qualitymodel quality simulation part is validatedby comparing simu simulation in reproduce order to the observed groundwa ter level piezometric or level a certain for period of time for hydrology module validation (Table 1). Whereas, water and water quality parameters using trial and error meth od. Hydrology module parameters (mainly effective pre cipitationand runoff/infiltration) adjusted were during Before doing future scenario analysis, performance of the WEAP simulation is justified with significant association between observed and simulated values of hydrological Model performance evaluation bration, validation and finally simulation. The structure of themodel consists of four components i.e. schematic diagram, data input, scenario analysis and finally evaluation of scientificdata for policy formulation (providing evidencepolicy for formulation). credible scientific In summary, the model framework and model structure are shown in the two figures Lookingbelow. into theflowchart of the model framework, there are four major components viz. WEAP model set up (schematic diagram and data input), cali Risk assessment quality water (For component) WEAPEvaluation (Water and Planning) model is usedbased on the following benefits: Tutorial - Runoff method - runoff module for module for runoff up - error method error 60 quality parameters parameters quality Satisfactory statistical performance Satisfactory statistical performance • • - up trial using - Flowchartshowing modelstructure. Flowchartshowing framework. WEPA work runoff/infiltration), and water quality parameters parameters water and quality runoff/infiltration), plans plans for water resource management Scenario building [two scenarios: a) Business as usual, b) With measures] measures] With b) usual, as Business a) scenarios: [two building Scenario meteorological parameters,management wastewater infrastructures etc.) Initial data preparation (GIS layers, river cross section, water quality, hydro quality, water section, cross river layers, (GIS preparation data Initial • Model set up was done for the base year (2013) Rainfall using (2013) year base the for done up was set Model Model calibration using trial anderror trial on hydraulic (effective precipitation, water and both hydraulic for data simulated and observed between Correlation • • • • Policy recommendation based on the scientific findings for making robust future robust for makingfindings the scientific onbased recommendation Policy up up Calibration of the model set model the of Calibration etc. parameters quality water level, groundwater of the considering model Validation of effect considering as usual 2030: a) business year for developed scenario Two with scenario b) etc.; change land cover use land growth, population change, climate measures development groundwater the on based pollutants the of fate and Transport management resource water for measures the of Efficiency Fix spatial boundary; time horizon; system components (groundwater, river, demand river, (groundwater, components system time boundary; Fix horizon; spatial configuration network etc.); site catchment site, - rainfall structure, aquifer of of groundwater, demand values Fixed set model for quality water module, hydrological WEAP WEAP D. Evaluation D. A. Schematic development A. Schematic account B. Current buildingC. Scenario • • • • • • • Validation model set set model Simulation Calibration

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool It willIt also identify help to what are the suitable mitigation/adaptationmeasures improving for this water environment b 61 RunningWEAP the for first time Beforeworking on WEAP software, downloadand registerit. After that, procure thefree license. After clicking you“OK” will be prompted saveto changes theto Santa Rosa River Basin. After clicking yes, you will get thefollowing screen: A window, as shown below, will appear in which you should click on the “Initially Blank” option. In the next steps, you will be defining this area for a specific geographic area ofthe world - so you can namethe area basedselectionon if you like Mindoro_1). this (e.g., menu optionmake blankto new, a area. Establish Blank a New, Area. Open WEAP for the first time,a project area called “Weaping River Basin” willappear. Use the Area, Create Area With scenario based simulation, we will be able to predictwhat will be the future situation theof water environment a a b Step 1. Step 2. Steps for WEAPSteps training Expected outcome - - 62 You can redrawYou you green rectangle to best capture the area you want in this Clickview. on “OK” when you are sat isfied with your area boundaries.Note that you canmodify these boundaries later by choosing “Set Area Boundar ies”on thepull-down menuunder Schematic on themenu bar. top You can thenYou use the slider bar on theleft lower the of window zoom to into thisselected area. Click “OK” again. In the next screen, you will select the geographic area for your projectappears. your Use from cursor draw to the a rectangle around world themap area thatthat your project will represent. The boundaries will appearas a green rectangle asshown below. c e d

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool - 63 In this case, add the Admin_boundary_Export_Output.shp file from folder named as Mindoro_WEAP_training, as shown below. Set theTime Stepsper year 12. to Set theTime Step Boundary“Based to on calendarand month” starting inJanuary below) (see likeand set Timeto Years Steps. Click “General” from menu and using drop down menu select different options and set the different parameters Set theCurrent and 2015 to Accounts theof Scenarios Last Year Year 2030.to c a a b d Step 4. Setting General Parameters General Setting 4. Step are we Now going proceedto with learningnavigate to how through WEAP and itsfunctionalities. the left of the Schematic A window and Layer.” will a Raster select a Vector Layer” “Add appear “Add or in which you can redirect it to the folder having shape file. After adding the shape fileelementsthe for study of area. river network, groundwater and other Step 3. Add a GIS layer to the Area to layer a GIS Add 3. Step You can add GIS-based Raster and Vector maps to your project area - these maps can help structyou your to systemorient andand refinecon area boundaries.To add a RasterVectoror layer, right click in the middle windowto - - 64 Next, in order to do the simulation of water quality parameters, we need to select general—water qualityters and must clickparame enable water quality modeling. By default, WEAP will simulate temperature, BOD and DO. How if ever, need we add to other parameter, can we that do after click add button and adjust units as our observed data, example for chloride in this case. Similarly,under “General”, the units also need be to fixed as shown below. Here the year 2015 will serve as the “Current Accounts” year for this project. The Current Accounts year is chosen serve to as the base year the for model, and all system information demand, (e.g., supply data) is input into the Current Accounts. The Current Accounts is the dataset from which scenarios are built. Scenarios explore possible changesthe to system in future years after the Current Accounts defaultA year. scenario, the “Reference Scenario” carries forward the Current Accounts data into the entire project period specified (here,to 2015 2030) and serves as pointa comparison of other for scenarios in which changes may be madethe to system data. Keepthe default units)(SI now. for f g e

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool - - 65 Return flow link requiredis to connectdemand a to a site river. Runoff/infiltration link requiredis to connect a catchment a to river Transmissionlink isrequired connect to from thegroundwater a demand to site site and site double clickingon thisdemand node. Dothe same other for links as well. Finally,the schematic willlook likeas in the figure shown below: Addtransmissiona Link first a to position on the groundwater,releasing the click, then pulling the linkdemand to Releasethe click you when have positioned the cursor over the upper left starting point theof main section theof the Move river. cursor,and you will notice a linebeing generated fromthat starting point. Click on the “River” symbol in the Element window and hold the click as you drag the symbol over to the map. a b for example for groundwatera source used in this case. Surface water is used see to the interaction between surface wa ter-groundwater interaction. Different links are used connect to catchment, groundwater, river and demand ex For site. ample: After finishing the need river, we add to catchment, groundwater, demand etc. In site the final schematic, must we check for the following element, how all demand is satisfied; this is accomplished by connecting a supply resource as Important Note- The direction of drawing matters: the first point you draw will be thehead of the river fromwhere water willYou can flow. edit the river course later on by simply clicking-moving any part of the riverto create anew point,or right-clickingany point delete to it. Step 5. Draw differentdiagram Draw schematic elementsfull 5. to make Step - 66 Select the “Monthly Time-Series Wizard” from the drop--down menu. Below the example is givennamed as St Rosa for watershed. one site Alternatively, you can use thepull-down Tree menu and select “Expand All” to view all branches. The “Inflows and Outflows” window should beopen - ifit isn’t, click on theappropriate button. Click on the “Headflow” tab. Click on the area justbeneath the bar labeled “2015” in thedata input window view to pull-down a menu icon. Right-clickon the Main River and select Edit data and any in item the list. Switch the to Data view by clicking on theData symbol on the left theof main screen. Select: Supply and Resources/ River /Main River in the Data tree. may have click to You on the “plus icon sign” beside the Supply and Resources branch in view order to all of the ad ditionalbranches below init the tree. c a b Step 6. Enter Data for the Main River Data 6. for the Enter Main Step There are twoways navigateto the to dataentry sectionWEAP of data enter to the for Main River.

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool - 67 Note- Note- WEAP divides up rivers into reaches (segments). Originally your river has only one reach; as you drawaland add returnwith points,WEAP will automatically createreaches. new yet. Push Finish close to the wizard. Note Note that as you enter each data point, the data is shown graphically also. Do not input or change any other data Use theUse Monthly Time Series Wizard the enter to following data seriesshown in the image below: f e d - - - 68 Note- Note- The Demand Priority represents the level of priority for allocation of constrained resources among mul tiple demand sites. WEAP will attempt to supply all demand sites with highest Demand Priority, then moving priority lower to until sites all of the demand is all metor of the resources areused, whichever happens first. mandsites. You must You first select the units before entering data. Click on undertheUnit “N/A” in the AnnualActivity level tab. Pull down the arrow that appears, select “People”, and click “OK.” Then give the value of population for each de administrativeboundary theof study area shown in blackline. Return the to Schematic view and pull a demand node symbol the onto schematic from the Element window, re leasing the click you when have positioned the node on the left bank of the river (facing downstream) inside the Data population, for annual activity level will be provided this at stage as shown Set the below. “Annual Activity D2, For setas Level” 34700. as 102998. D1 for tree. Right click on the Big City demand site and select “Edit data” and “Annual Activity Level.” way This to edit data, ratheris thanthe clicking alternative on the “Data” view icon on the side bar menu and searching through the data Enterthe namethis of demand nodeas Mindoro in thedialog box, andset thedemand priority 1.to e a c b d Creatingdemanda node is similar the to process you usedcreate river. to a Step 7. Input data Input for demand and D2 sites D1 7. Step

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool 69 variationbased on thenumber days of in each month. willWe edit not these values the for city demand, will but we edit them laterthe for agricultural demand. Note- Note- The monthly variation is expressed as a percentage of the yearly value. The values for all haveof to sumthe up to 100% over the monthsfull year. If you specifydon’t monthly variation, WEAP will prescribe a monthly Set theGroundwater quality in terms Chloride of the at equilibriumas 270mg/L. Then consequently you need to fill information forother elements like groundwater qualitySet theGroundwater extraction and extraction rateas 85liter/capita/day. rate. Select “C” in the assumption tree, first select catchment method. Ideally soil-moisture methodmethod calculate to is runoff best divides as it the suitableaquifer in two layers vadose zone and saturated zone mimicking the realsituation the world However, number closely. more inputof data is quite huge. In this case (Mindoro), because dataof scarcity, have we selected rainfall-runoff (simplified coefficient method) asshown below. Next, clickon thetab Rate” Use and“Annual Water 300 enter under theyear 2015. f a g h First,will we specify the catchmentrunoff calculation method. Step 7. Input data Input for catchment C 7. Step 90 120 140 250 200 2030 (Hectares) 2030 100 100 140 260 200 70 2015 (Hectares) 2015 Crops Forest Shrubs Classes Built-up Inland-water Crops Built-up Inland-water Shrubs Forest Clickon the Climate icon and thePrecipitation tab. Inthe column, 2015 open the MonthlyTime-Series Wizard. Now withinNow fill Land Tab, Use all the information each for of the land use types in km2, as shown below: Now Now we will add the different land use classes present in the study catchment. Clickaddall the following dataClick land use/land C cover click types: add and c d b Next willwe input data related climate.to

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool 71 Now, enable theNow, water quality module within the river as shownin theimage below. Set quality theWater catchmentat mg/L as10 Cl- Now Now click on the Water Quality tab. We can give input in terms of either intensity quality or parameters.concentration Here in this study of usedwe datain theterms concentration of water like shown below. Set thevalues each for month as below. f e g h - 72 gated is 18.3 km,put “0” below riverhead flow and18.3 for km the tailflow point. Now Now give the value of distance marker and river cross section. For distance marker, as the length of river investi Set theBOD Concentration in the column2015 as 40. a b Step 8. Input data 8. Input for river relatedStep parameters Inthis stage, will we provide information about river cross section, stretch theof river under consideration, water quality riverat head etc.

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool 73 0, 0, 0 4.6, 0.5, 85.32 11, 0.7, 123.11 1,0,0, 4.6, 20, 0 155.67 1.10, 165.11 23, 15.6, 0.5, 0.8, 1.20, 85.32 138.11 11, 171.95 17, 0.7, To build scenario, new To first click Manage Scenario. For the river For cross section,click Flow StageWidth as shown andbelow, give all theinput data. a c has potentialimpact to water quality.In thiscase, willwe buildscenario a including population growth. Step 9. Generate different scenarios 9. Step Now once the reference scenario is done, we can start building scenario to include drivers and pressures which - D2 112365 125281 114837 117364 119946 133733 122585 128038 130854 107580 105264 102998 102998 102998 102998 109947 auhan D1 Pola 43136 37041 41299 40410 37856 45055 35463 38689 39540 42207 44085 34700 34700 34700 34700 36244 2015 2017 2018 2021 2016 2019 ear 2025 2023 2027 2022 2028 2026 2030 2029 2020 2024 - 74 Note: Note: due to data limitations, we have used the same popula tionvalues The years for result 2015-2018. will be grapha like the example shown below. for D1 andD1 D2, for withthe valuesbelow: nualactivity populationor value will beincreased from reference year the to target year as shownin figure below. Let’stry scenario a considering population growth. Click onthe AnnualActivity Level tab, and data enter the for years 2015-2030 Now Now once new scenario is created, then we need to change the concerning parameter in the new keepingscenarioother parameters the same whileas the reference scenario. Example- scenario For with population growth, an A new windowA new will pop need we up, where put to the name of scenario. message A will be asked that this scenario isbased on: Selectreference as shown infigure Here example below. is shown for Mindoro. c b d

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool - - - “values some the for of parameters are not suit 75 Afterrunning the model, might we encounter messages like runable to Fix this and model”. rerun the model. which will appear is “Results are out of date. Do you want to recalculate now?” as shown below. Press yes. Anample is shown below. ex Oncewith done data input and after saving the model, press the Result button. There will pop-out a message Now Now again press result for model simulation, and new window will pop-up showing resultters. Here after selecting for differentresult water demand,for window parame willlook like as shown below. c a b Step 10. Run the model (simulation, calibration, validation) calibration, the model (simulation, Run 10. Step - G2 Cl_future_PI_CC45 (2030) Cl_future_PI_CC45 Cl_future_PI_CC85_LC (2030) Wells Wells Cl_future_PI (2030)Cl_future_PI Cl_future_PI_CC45_LC (2030) 76 G1 Cl_current (2018)Cl_current (2030) Cl_future_PI_CC85 0

500

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 Cl (mg/L) Cl usechange scenarios is shown belowwith regardsthe to Chloride parameter. (Cl) side menu. We can also export this simulated result data in excel sheet by doing right click exporton thethese windowsdata sets and in to the desired folders. Where we can edit this output to draw different graphs as convenience.per ourWe can also change the type of graph we wanted to display like no comparison, tion growth,relative land useto land climate cover, popula change, and different mitigation measures as shown in the drop-down menushown An below. example theof outputs WEAPof considering population growth, climate change, and land- We We can change the chart type like bar, line, stack etc. based on our interest just by clicking and selecting it from Now Now select the desired parameters from the dropdown menu to see the simulated result shownlike below. water quality as e d

Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool Chapter 6: Groundwater impact assessment using the ater Evaluation and Planning (EAP) tool - - - - Cl_Sim. G2 G2 GW_level_sim. 85 Cl_Obs. 270 93% 55/45 Wells Wells GW_level_obs. Final calibrated value for St Rosa Final calibrated value for G1 G1

5 0 5/5 5/5 (bgl) (m) level Water 35 30 25 20 15 10 Steps

0.5% 10/10

2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 2400 2300 Cl (mg/L) Cl 77 Cl_Sim. 100% 50/50 250 mg/L 250 G2 G2 Initial value 75 liter/day/capita 75 GW_level_sim. Cl_Obs. Wells Wells GW_level_obs. G1 G1 Parameters Groundwater quality Groundwater

Effective precipitation Effective Runoff/infiltration ratio Runoff/infiltration Groundwater extraction Groundwater 5 0 Water level (m) (bgl) (m) 10 level Water 35 30 25 20 15

Congratulations, you’ve learned perform to how quality using WEAP! you’ve water Congratulations, simulation Center: Somerville, MA, USA; Available online: Accessedhttp://www.weap21.org/. onApril 1 2014. Kumar, P*., Tsujimura, M., Nakano, Minoru,T., T. (2012) The effect of tidal ofSaijo fluctuation plain, Ehime on groundprefecture, water Japan.qualityDesalination, in coastal286. 166-175. aquifer Tsujimura,Kumar, M.,Saraswat, P.*, C., Srivastava, Kumar, M., P., Avtar, R. Modeling (2017) transient intertidal submarine groundwater discharge in coastal aquifer of Western Japan. Proceeding of the NationalScience. SpringerAcademy of Sciences,Publication. India423-432. 87. SectionDOI 10.1007/s40010-016-0324-7. A Physical OudeEssink Improving (2001). fresh groundwater supply problems andsolutions. Ocean Coastal& Management, 44. 429–49. OzlerHM (2003)Hydrochemistry and salt–waterintrusion in theaquifer, Van Environmental east Turkey. Geology, 43. 759–775. Sieber, Purkey, J., Evaluation Water (2011). D. and Planning System. User guide for WEAP21; Stockholm Environment Institute, U.S. World Health World Organization (WHO) Guidelines(2011) or drinking water quality, 4th edn. Health World Organization,Geneva. p 563 Effler, Schimel, S.W., K., Millero,F.J., (1986) Salinity, chloride and density relationship airin ionand enriched soil pollution, 169-180. Onondaga27. lake,Water, NY. Appelo,C. A. J.,&Postma, (2005). D. Geochemistry, groundwater andpollution (2ndedn, p. Balkema.649). The Netherland. Kumar, Tsujimura,P., M., Nakano, T., Minoru, T. (2013) Time ferentseries aquifers inanalysis a small coastalfor area of Saijothe plain,estimation Ehime prefecture, of Japan.tidal Environmental 239–250.fluctuation Geochemistry effect and Health. on 35. dif References 2000 1900 1800 2200 2100 2400 2300 Cl (mg/L) Cl site, site, the results for model validation are shown in below. It is found that observed value cantlyrelated. for both parameters are signifi Once statistically with the model calibration results, the next step is model validation. validation, For compare we the observedthe to simulated values theof parameter(s) other for dates included not in the calibration process. this For study matchbetween simulatedand observed values the of water quality parametersare obtained. For calibration,For the following two parameters and the steps adjusting for them used. were The parametersare modi fied by the Steps shown,e.g. subtracting0.5% from the initial Effectiveprecipitation value(100%) until a satisfactory Additional information on model calibration and validation on model calibration information Additional In this tutorial, we have showed how to run the WEAP model for simulating water quality in theIn practice,present the modeland needs be to calibratedfuture. and validated ensure to that the model’s simulated values are reliable. - - - - - 78 Howto identify countermeasures througha participatory process; Aboutpotential technologiesand funding sources for climate changeadaptation; providesome guidance adaptation for measure development and implementation, utilizingthe results theof different impact assessments. is based It mainly on les sons learned froma case study in theOriental Mindoro Province theof Philippines. will you learn: In this chapter, Overview of this chapter Asdiscussed in the previous chapters, land-use changes can exacerbate the im pactsclimateof change, e.g. bycausing increased exposure storm to surge and sea-levelrise coastal when ecosystems are converted urban/built-up to agricul or tural lands. The participatory coastal land-use management (PCLM) approach pre sentedin thisguidebook provides frameworka assess to these impacts, and aids in designingappropriate climate change adaptation measures with local governments andother relevant stakeholders. Previous chapters have focused onthe scenario development and impact assessment steps of PCLM. The focus of this chapter is to to reduce land-use and climate climate and land-use reduce to change risks Chapter 7: Identifying and im and Identifying 7: Chapter plementing countermeasures Pankaj Kumar Pankaj MasayukiKawai BrianA. Johnson Rajarshi Dasgupta DamasaMagcale-Macandog B.

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks - - - East side of Mindoro Island, and all except Socorro for and Victoria are located on the coastline. The main economic activitiesin Oriental Mindoro are agriculture and (eco-) tourism. Land-use Planning and Implementation) represent the policy aspects. In this demonstrate we chapter, these how third and fourth stepstheof PCLM approach can be im plemented through casea study Oriental of Mindoro Prov incethe of Philippines. Countermeasures reduce to land-use change and climate changeimpacts are, by their nature, specific, site so the specificmeasures presented here should be taken as ex amples rather than “best practices”. What is important is that the countermeasures contribute enhanced to land- useplanning and management in the coastal areas where they are identified(e.g.to reduce land-use change/climate changeimpacts oncoastal communities). 79 ------FigureLocation 7.1. of Oriental Mindoro Province,Philippines. Case Study of Oriental Mindoro Oriental of Study Case Main concepts onthis pilot study. A research team from the Institute Global for Environmental Strategies (IGES) and the University of the Philippines Los Baños conducted a PCLM pilot study in Oriental Mindoro from The 2019-2021. remainder of this chapter focuses PCLM pilot study Oriental pilot in PCLM Mindoro onthe mainland (LuzonIsland). Asseen in all Figure 7.1, municipalities 14 Orientalof Mindoro are located onthe thority, 2015). Thethority, 2015). largest municipality and of the capitol provinceis Calapan Oriental City. Mindoro can be reached byferry boat inaround hours2 from Batangas City port PuertoGalera, Roxas, Socorro, San Teodoro, and Victoria The population (Figurethisof 7.1). province was 844,059 as of the latest census in (Philippines 2015 Statistics Au politanManila area. Oriental Mindoro is composed 14 of municipalities:Baco, Bansud, Bongabong, Bulalacao, Cala pan City, Gloria, Mansalay, Naujan, Pinamalayan, Pola, Introduction Theisland province Orientalof Mindoro theof Philip pinesis located approximately km 140 from the Metro Impact Assessment) represent the (mostly) technical as pectsthisof framework,while the third and fourth steps (Countermeasure Development, and Climate Resilient implementation.The PCLM approach presented in this guidebook incorporates these elements in its four steps. The first two steps of PCLM(Scenario Development, and (e.g., policies, (e.g., measures); mainstreaming the options into development planning;implementing the options; and monitoringand evaluating the progress and results theof identifying potential future climate change scenarios; assessing the impacts of the predicted changes; devel oping,appraising, and prioritizing management options Science-basedclimate actions can be aided theby use a frameworkthat involves several key elements including: - - - - - FigureMangrove 7.3. area that was converted fishpond.to a expected decrease to in area by approximately (Table 3.6% Notably, 7.1). several LGUs mentioned mangrove replant ingas proposeda activity in the future and in some cases reconverting abandoned fishponds backto mangrove eco systems. For step PCLM,of 1 For conducted we another consultation meeting with coastal resource managers of the in LGUs Oriental Mindoro in January 2020, wherein conducted we participatorya land-use mapping this activity. For activ ity, we asked the LGU officialsto map out their future (to planned~2030) land-use changes in coastal areas using different colored markers various for land uses on printed maps.these Later, land-use changes digitized were into GIS format using QGIS software Chapter (see how 2 for performto this digitization). Based on this participatory mapping activity, we identified the land-use changes that likelywere occur to of most from (date recent 2015 land- 2030. useto The map) main land-use changes identified mangrove were: forests are expected increase to in area by approximately built-up areas are expected 7.4%, in to creasein area byapproximately 3.5%, and fishponds are 80 - - - - Figure Typical 7.2. mangrove ecosystems in Oriental Philippines. Mindoro, to to fishpondsfor commercialor recreational aquaculture(see Figure7.3 for a photograph of one ofIndeed, theseconversion mangroves of fishponds to fishponds). has been a common occurrence in Philippines the andother countries. PCLM Step 1: Scenario Analysis 1: Step PCLM In our research team’s first visitto Oriental Mindoro in 2019,we conducted afield survey ofthe island to understand the coastal ecosystems present, and interviewed local officialsto understandhow thetime land-use in coastal areas.had The photos in showchanged examples Figure 7.2 of some of the typical over mangrove ecosystems in differ ent regions of the province. We learned that over the last few decades many of these mangrove sites were converted elthe future impacts theseof hazards. The software that selectedwe are the ones presented in Chapters 4-6 of this guidebook,namely: storm (for InVEST surgeand coastal erosion modeling), SLAMM sea-level rise (for modeling), and WEAPgroundwater (for quality modeling). climate-related hazards in their municipality, on a scale from 1 (almost impact) no 5 (very to high impact). Based on this questionnaire, we identified that some of the main coastalhazards in the area are storm surge, sea-level rise, andgroundwater salinization. Based on this hazard as sessment,selected we suitable modeling software mod to meetingwith government officials from the local gov ernment units and (LGUs) Oriental Mindoro Provincial Agricultural Officeto (PAGO) understand the climate-re lated hazards experienced in this study area. During thismeeting, distributed we questionnaire a asking the government officials rank to the impacts of different After this field visit, the researchteam held a consultation

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks ) 3.56% 7.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.17% -0.01% -3.60% -0.20% -0.02% -0.24% Change () 0.00 0.00 0.00 -5.72 -0.09 -14.41 -15.05 356.11 590.99 -256.58 -386.58 -268.67 Change (a) 670.88 5,169.70 7,198.62 7,445.06 17,171.06 23,510.84 14,843.03 151,031.48 a (23) 163,713.76 147,355.53 188,082.84 266,696.67 81 670.88 7,460.11 4,813.59 7,467.28 23,516.55 16,580.08 14,843.03 147,612.11 a (215) 151,031.57 266,711.08 164,100.34 188,082.84 FigureSatellite-derived 7.4. measurements ofsea-level change from 1992-2010. https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/aviso-satellite-derived-sea-surface-height-above-geoid Table 7.1. Future7.1. Table land-use changes in OrientalMindoro, determined based on participatorya land-use mapping activity. Land-useland-cover type Land-useland-cover Annual Crop rushShrubs uilt-up Closed Forest Fishpond Grassland Inland Water Mangrove Forest MarshlandSwamp Open Forest Openarren Perennial Crop calculatedthe historical sea-level rise rate (excluding land subsidence/uplift) as approximately mm/year 7.2. (Figure 7.4). our climate For change scenario analysis, assumed we slightlya higher future sea-level rise rate 8.0of mm/year 2050, to aswell as extreme more scenariosdoubling (e.g. the sea-levelrise rate). calculatedthe local sea-level rise based rate onsatellite altimetry measurements seaof surface from height 1992-2010 (acquired from : usingthe measurements centered on 12.5 degrees latitude, 122.5 degrees longitude. From these satellite measurements, we For For step 1 of PCLM, the research team also conducted a climate change scenario analysis, focusing on sea-level rise. We - - - - be seen that some developed dry land (i.e. built-up areas) may be regularly flooded by 2050, and some undeveloped dryland (i.e. agricultural areas)may become transitional salt marshfrequent dueto inundation. no additionalno protection from sea-level rise compared to the present. The research team presented maps of future land-use/land cover in different the to LGUs LGU staff (see an for example). InFigure map, the can it Figure 7.6 7.6 fromCalapan City Pinamalayan, to as well as Mansalay, are highly reliant on natural habitats protect to the coast linefrom these hazards. should It be noted that herewe havepresented the results thisof extreme “without coast al habitat” scenario rather than the (more conservative) scenario from the participatory mapping activity, because theresults theof participatory mapping scenario are very similar to that of the “with coastal habitat” scenario (due the to minor land-use changes theof participatory map ping scenario as well as the coarse resolution which at themodel runs, i.e. 100m 100mx grid The size). main idea of this impact assessment is demonstrate to the impor tancethe of coastalecosystems coastal for protection. 82 - - - - FigureOutputs 7.5. of InVESTCoastal VulnerabilityIndex model forMindoro Island. aremaps theof future land-use/land assuming cover, usedSLAMM level (Sea affecting marshes model), as pre sentedin Chapter 5. The main scenario considered and presented was 0.5m sea-level rise by 2050, as compared the to sea-level.1990 This corresponds approximately to 8mm/yearrise in the future, which was similar the to historical The results rate of~7.2mm/year. of SLAMM To model future To sea-level rise impacts, the research team the coastal vulnerability with and without the coastal ecosystems mangroves). From (e.g. the results of this im pact assessment (Figure can it be seen 7.5), that the area for thefor research team travel to Oriental to Mindoro due to travelCOVID-19 restrictions. demonstrate land-use how To affects storm surge and coastalerosion, the research team used the Coastal Vul nerability Index model map to Chapter of InVEST (see 4) Next, the research team conducted a series of impact as sessmentstry to understand to land-use how change and climatechange could potentially affect coastal hazards inthe future. The results presented were staff LGU to in anonline workshop in October 2020, was as it difficult PCLM Step 2: Impact Assessment 2: Step PCLM

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks - Health effect Health taste, Bitter bad, Tastes allergy membrane mucous irritation Gastro-intestinal good ot irritation, Gastro-intestinal diabetics hypertension, with people for and effect laxatic and taste Salty health suitable for ecosystem not effect laxatic Salty taste and 6% 23% 23% 26% 20% beyond limit beyond % of samples of % 1 Solids(TDS), and Chloride These (Cl). results indicate that some of the wells are already experiencing salt water intrusion. A map of the salt water water-fresh mixing ra tiowas generated the show to where issue is greatestof concernIn the (Figure area greatestof concern, 7.7). water quality modeling was conducted using WEAP to identify the impacts of future climate change, population growth, and land-use change ongroundwater quality. 500 500 200 6.5-8.5 (HO, 2011) (HO, 83 desirable limit desirable HO permissible/ HO 2.11 7.38 0.87 0.64 1014 1083 39.33 St Dev St 479.05 1451.06 37 714 587 979 5.13 18.6 0.47 7.764 258.09 Average 26 104 11.5 4.17 8.76 5140 4901 6220 2308.14 Maximum 0 34 2.3 129 2.31 83.2 6.23 0.06 33.21 Minimum FigureExample 7.6. ofoutputs fromSLAMM model for OrientalMindoro (Calapan Cityand Baco LGUs). pH Cl (mg/L) Cl Depth (m) Depth DO (mg/L) DO Temp ( ˚C ) ˚C ( Temp EC (s/cm) EC sea (meter) sea TDS (mg/L) TDS Parameters Salinity (ppt) Salinity Distance from Distance terms pH, of Electical Conductivity Dissolved (EC), Total qualityfrom 35 wellsamples As are shown 7.2. in Table seenin the table, approximately 25% theof well samples were beyond World Health Organization (WHO) limits in LGU staff from 35 different wells, and conducted future simulation of water quality using WEAP (as presented in The Chapterresults 6). theof analysis theof ground water Finally,groundwater for salinity impact assessment, the researchteam analyzed well water samples collected by - 84 Figure 7.8. WEAP set-up and modeling results. Note: “Cl_current” indicates 2015 chloridefuture_PI” level, indicates“Cl_ 2030 chloride level considering population increase; “Cl_future_PI_CC45” indi cates 2030 chloride level considering population increase and climate change (RCP4.5 scenario); “Cl_ future_PI_CC45_LC” indicates 2030 chloride level considering population increase, climate (RCP4.5change scenario), and land-use/land cover change; “Cl_future_PI_CC85” indicates 2030 level chlorideconsidering population increase and climate change (RCP8.5 scenario); CC85_LC”and “Cl_future_PI_indicates 2030 chloride level considering population increase, climate scenario),changeand land-use/land (RCP8.5 cover change. Figure 7.7. Map of salt water – fresh water (SW-FW) mixing Oriental from samples (SW-FW) well water of ratio fresh water – water salt of Map Figure 7.7. Mindoro.The areas with thelarge circlesindicate thelocations ofmajor concern.

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks - - - - Table 7.3. Priority 7.3. Table countermeasures identified for Mindoro. Oriental Identified countermeasures protection/restoration Mangrove 1. protection/restoration Seagrass 2. policies/initiatives environmental in participation Community 3. (MPAs) Areas Protected Marine Expanding 4. mangroves to fishponds (idle/unproductive) of Reversion 5. construction Seawall 6. aquifers deeper Tapping 7. harvesting 8. Rainwater plant treatment water plant/waste of desalinization Construction 9. companies local of initiatives green 10. Supporting communities local of diversification Livelihood 11. Figure Consultation 7.10. meeting with LGU officials and iden tification of countermeasures to reduce the negative impacts ofland-use change and climate change. tionsthat can be taken address to these land-use change/ climate change impacts in their locality. They write their identified countermeasures onnotecards, andwhen com pleted,all theof notecards are collected and displayed theat front of the meeting room. A representative from eachthen LGU presents identified countermeasures to In this thethe group (Figure whole countermea way, 7.10). surescan be shared among all Finally, LGUs. there is a question and answer/discussion section identify to and summarize thepriority/common countermeasures. ter presentingter the results theof impact assessments from PCLM Step 2, LGU officials completed an online question naire survey identify to relevant countermeasures. After compilingtheir countermeasures, identified we several common “priority” countermeasures in consultation with the7.3). LGU officials (Table 85 ------Figure 7.9. OnlineFigure 7.9. workshop to identify counter measures in OrientalMindoro. asked discuss to among themselves identify to the ac inonetable. Then, the results theof scenario analysis and impactassessments (PCLM Steps and1 are presented. 2) Based on the presented information, the LGU officials are in-person workshop. In an in-person workshop, the pro cess identifying for countermeasures is quite similar. First,the participants from each are LGU grouped together Although identifiedwe countermeasures inthis case studythrough onlinetrav workshops COVID-19 due to el restrictions in 2020-2021, another option is through coast,as well as the Oriental Mindoro Provincial Agricul turalFor this,Officewe used(PAGO). ZoomVideo Commu nications on February 24, 2021, as shown Af in Figure 7.9. In Oriental Mindoro, countermeasures reduce to future land-use change/climate change impacts were identified through online consultation meetings with local officials from the localgovernment unitslocated (LGUs) alongthe PCLM Step 3: Countermeasure identification 3: Step PCLM ------has August approved on 16 2018, the “Guidelines on the Issuance of Green Bonds under the ASEAN Green Bonds Standards.” These Guidelines set out to adopt the ASEAN Green Bond Standards and provide the for rules and pro cedures for the issuance of ASEAN Green Bonds in the Philippines.The eligible Green Project categories includes but are not limited to 1) Renewable energy, 2) Energy effi Pollution 3) ciency, prevention and Environmen control 4) tallysustainable management livingof natural resources and land use, 5) Terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity con servation,Clean 6) transportation 7) Sustainable water andwastewater management, Climate 8) change adap tation,Eco-efficient 9) and/or circular economy adapted products, production 10) technologies andprocesses, and Green11) buildings. These categories can involve/cover the adaptation options identified in this Chapter. Further informationonthe trend Greenof Bond can be obtained from followingwebsites: andinvestment https://www.greenclimate. website: (GCF fund/project/sap010).Further information on GCF propos al development and the process can be obtained fromGCF officialwebsite (https://www.greenclimate.fund/) Aside from external funds projects, for green bonds are anotherimportant future opportunity fundof raising fromprivate sector and local government. Green Bonds are defined as “Bonds issued inorder to raise finance for climatechange solutions and labelled as green by the issuer.They can be issued bygovernments, banks, mu nicipalitiescorporations or and can be applied any to debt format” (Climate Bond Initiative 2018). Green Bonds have beenrapidly spreading in the world. The amount globalof GreenBond issuancewas USD3.1 billion in however, 2012; billionin 2018, issuance (Ministry grew USD167.3 to of the Environment based on data The on the Secu website). CBI rities and Exchange Commission of the Philippines (SEC) http://greenbondplatform.env.go.jp/en/ 86 - - - - https://www.climatebonds.net/ International CapitalMarket Association: https://www.icmagroup.org/green-social-and-sustainability-bonds/green-bond-principles-gbp/ ClimateBonds Initiative: TheGreen Bond Issuance PromotionPlatform: PCLM Step 4: Climate-resilient land-use planning Climate-resilient 4: Step PCLM andadaptation measures. will It build on best practices in multi-hazardearly warning systems and link with fore cast-based action maximize to impacts on the ground. Thisincludes climate-resilient development planning In the Philippines, one SAP (SimplifiedApproval Process) project,“Multi-Hazard Impact-Based Forecasting and Ear Warning ly System the for Philippines” has been approved by GCF secretariat in November 2019. This project will strengthen the Philippines’ ability adjust to climate to impacts,and implement long-term climate risk reduction ectis under now consideration and still itsearly at stage. The Philippine Climate Change Commission is the (CCC) National Designated Authority to endorse all proposals CCC looks the at quality GCF. for theof proposal before The Landendorsing Bank GCF. to it of the Philippines is the national accredited entity implementing GCF projects. up up by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2010 to help developing countries reduce their emissions GHG and enhance their ability respond to climateto change. DevelopmentGCFa of project proposal based on this proj this climate change adaptation fundraising: one national fundcalled the People Survival Fund (PSF), and one inter nationalfund called the Green Climate Fund The (GCF). PSF is special fund in the Philippine National Treasury thatfinances climate change adaptation programs and on theprojects. other hand, GCF, is a dedicated fund set be used as a basis applying for domestic/international for climate adaptation funds raise (to funds implementing for the countermeasures), and improve/update to the local land-use plans andclimate change action plans possibleTwo external funding sources were identified for Afteridentifying all theseof countermeasures, the step PCLMof is incorporate to these measures into the local plansand policies. example, For the countermeasures can

Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks Chapter 7: Identifying and implementing countermeasures to reduce land-use and climate change risks - - - - - https://www.climatebonds.net/system/ (last accessed March 08,2021). (last accessed March 08,2021). climate change shall be mainstreamed into government policy formulations (Congress of the Philippines, 2009), butalso thenational guidelines requiring thatlocal cli matechange actions shall be mainstreamed into CLUPs (Housingand Land Regulatory Use Board, Upon the 2013). approvalby the Housing and Land Regulatory Use Board andthe Sangguniang Panlalawigan (i.e. provincial as sembly),the CLUPs serve as the basis formulating for the local Comprehensive Development and Plan Local (CDP) Development Investment Programs (LDIP) (Housing and LandRegulatory Use is Board, essential It 2013). that the scientific information provided through these types of im pact assessments be incorporated intothese localplans. 87 - - - - https://psa.gov.ph/tags/popcen-2015 ). https://adaptation-platform. PhilippineStatistics Authority (2015). POPCEN2015. Congress of the Philippines (2009). Republic Act No. 9729: Climate Change Act of 2009. Manila, Philippines: Congress of the the of Congress Philippines: Manila, 2009. of Act Change Climate 9729: No. Act Republic tdf/reports/cbi_sotm_2018_final_01k-web.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=34941&force=0(2009). Philippines the of Congress Philippines. Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board CLUP guidebook: (2013). A guide to comprehensive land use preparation. 1, Vol. Quezon Philippines: City, Housing and LandUse Regulatory Board. LocalGovernment AcademyLGU guidebook (2014). on the formumaltion of local climate change action plan (LCCAP). Pasig, Philippines: Department of Interior andLocal Government. References Climate BondInitiative Bonds (2018). and climate change:The stateof the market 2018. it, can help you identify to the future impacts of climate change and land use change in your own locality, and develop to policies and projectsreduce to these futurerisks. In this final chapter of the PCLM Guidebook,we havepresented a case studyto demonstrate how countermeasures, iden tified through the PCLMapproach, can be identified andthen implemented to increasethe resiliencenities of in coastalclimate hazard-prone commu regions. We sincerely hope that this guidebook, including the various tutorials included in Conclusion ing not only the Republic Act No. 9729 stipulating that Finally,with regards land-use to planning, the local gov ernments in Oriental Mindoro are in the process of revis ingtheir Comprehensive Land-use follow Plans (CLUPs), Adaptation Platform (A-PLAT: Adaptation Platform (A-PLAT: nies.go.jp/en/lets/adaptationbiz.html TheJapanese government publishes technologies owned byprivate companies like Joukashou (decentralized wastewater treatment technology) on the Climate Change EnvironmentJapan,of is it possible introduce to adapta tiontechnology developed in Japan another to country thatis facing climate related disasters in recent years. Potential adaptation technologies and measuresPotential Sincethis project was supported by the Ministry theof Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

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