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Response to Pacnet #8, “Taiwan Travel Act: Bad Idea? ”
NUMBER 8R PACIFIC FORUM CSIS · HONOLULU, HI FEB. 1, 2018 RESPONSE TO PACNET #8, “TAIWAN TRAVEL ACT: BAD IDEA? ” BY DENNIS V. HICKEY, JOSEPH BOSCO, LARRY OSBORN, AND ZHIQUN ZHU Once again, Hickey asserts that since the NDAA did not Dennis V. Hickey ([email protected]) is “mandate” the port calls or even “require the Pentagon to distinguished professor and director of the Graduate study the matter,” it was a futile gesture and like the TTA, Program in Global Studies at Missouri State University. simply “feel good” legislation. He claims “This wasn’t the first time lawmakers pulled this trick,” noting that the Joseph Bosco ([email protected]) is a consultant and Foreign Relations Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 2003 former China country director at the US Department of called on President George W. Bush to study the Defense. feasibility of “expanding US-Taiwan military ties.” Hickey reports that “an angry Bush signed the bill Larry Osborn ([email protected]) is a (permitting the foreign policy establishment to function), retired US Navy captain and senior vice president of the but declared that there was no change to America’s ‘one Navy League of the United States, Honolulu Council. China’ policy.” Zhiqun Zhu ([email protected]) is professor of Then Hickey steps into a self-contradiction that political science and international relations at Bucknell substantially undercuts his argument. He notes with University. apparent approval that Bush lambasted Congress because he believed the language “impermissibly interferes with Joseph Bosco replies: the President’s constitutional authority to conduct the nation’s foreign affairs” – and that was just for a study of In PacNet #8, “Taiwan Travel Act: Bad Idea?” Professor the issue. -
SIPRI Yearbook 2018: Armaments, Disarmament and International
world nuclear forces 267 VI. Indian nuclear forces shannon n. kile and hans m. kristensen India is estimated to have a growing arsenal of 130–40 nuclear weapons (see table 6.7). This figure is based on calculations of India’s inventory of weapon-grade plutonium and the number of operational nuclear-capable delivery systems. India is widely believed to be gradually expanding the size of its nuclear weapon stockpile as well as its infrastructure for producing nuclear warheads. Military fissile material production India’s nuclear weapons are believed to be plutonium-based. The plutonium was produced at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Trombay, Mumbai, by the 40-megawatt-thermal (MW(t)) heavy water CIRUS reactor, which was shut down at the end of 2010, and the 100-MW(t) Dhruva heavy water reactor. India operates a plutonium reprocessing plant for military purposes at the BARC.1 India plans to build six fast breeder reactors by the 2030s, which will significantly increase its capacity to produce plutonium that could be used for building weapons.2 An unsafeguarded 500-megawatt-electric (MW(e)) prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) is being built at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) complex at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu. The PFBR is expected to be commissioned in mid-2018 following a series of technical delays.3 The IGCAR has announced that a fast reactor fuel cycle facility will be built at Kalpakkam to reprocess spent fuel from the PFBR and future fast breeder reactors. The plant is scheduled to be commissioned by 2022.4 India is currently expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities. -
Russia and Strategic Non-Nuclear Deterrence Capabilities, Limitations and Challenges
Russia and strategic Briefing Paper non-nuclear deterrence Russia and Eurasia Programme Capabilities, limitations July 2021 and challenges Summary — An analysis of Russian military theory and practice suggests that Russia’s views have undergone an evolution, moving from reliance on nuclear deterrence towards a greater emphasis on non-nuclear deterrence. The development of Russia’s new long-range precision-guided weapons strongly supports the notion of such a shift. — At the same time, Russia is pressing ahead with the development of both non-nuclear and nuclear capabilities. It ceaselessly emphasizes its nuclear weapons, and its nuclear projects continue to proliferate. — In Russian theory and practice, nuclear and non-nuclear (conventional) deterrence are inextricably linked. A picture emerges of a flexible package of capabilities, with non-nuclear strategic systems complementing non-strategic and strategic nuclear weapons. — In anything less than large-scale high-intensity warfare, Russia’s non-nuclear strategic deterrent is valid conceptually and has clear practical utility. — This paper examines Russian non-nuclear deterrence in its primary, military manifestations. It outlines the capabilities involved in the exercise of non-nuclear deterrence and explores its potential limitations as well as its ambiguities. Studying these nuances offers a way to gain a fuller understanding of the challenges that they present, including for NATO. Valeriy Akimenko Russia and strategic non-nuclear deterrence Capabilities, limitations and challenges Introduction An analysis of Russian military theory and practice suggests that Russia’s views have undergone an evolution, moving from reliance on nuclear deterrence towards a greater emphasis on non-nuclear deterrence. Uncertainty surrounds this emphasis, both conceptually and practically. -
Asia Trends 3 Article 1
TRENDS THE U.S. AND THE INDO-PACIFIC UNDER TRUMP 1 Signals, Symbols and Sales: Recent Trends in U.S. Policy towards Taiwan1 | MAEVE WHELAN-WUEST Since 1979, when Washington switched its official recognition of China from the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taipei to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing, U.S. policy has remained steadfast in its strategic interest in cross-strait stability. Each incoming president has had to carefully balance American support for Taiwan with the United States’ changing and increasingly more intertwined relationship with China. In 2016, American and Taiwanese voters elected new presidents, both of whom campaigned to pursue more domestic-oriented policy agendas. Even before these elections, through which opposition parties entered the executive office and gained a sizable majority in the respective legislatures, 2017 was set to be a critical year for U.S.-Taiwan relations. With two new administrations in Washington and Taipei, Beijing’s calculations were surely going to alter and would undoubtedly test the position of the U.S. towards Taiwan. Nevertheless, a volatile start to the policies of both China and Taiwan under President Trump has meant that several distinct avenues have become the primary mechanisms through which the United States implements and signals its policy objectives, more so than under the Obama administration. 1 I would like to thank Richard C. Bush and Ryan L. Hass for their invaluable and constructive comments on the initial draft of this paper. ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 21 These avenues are: diplomatic measures, Following the phone call, Donald Trump, defense reassurances, and legislative during a handful of interviews, questioned messaging. -
Russian Nuclear Triad – a Threat Or Propaganda?
Pulaski Policy Papers Komentarz Międzynarodowy Pułaskiego ISSN 2080-8852 Warsaw, 21.03.2017 Author: Rafał Lipka Russian nuclear triad – a threat or propaganda? Despite the financial crisis, economic sanctions and technological difficulties, the Russian Federation is modernizing the Armed Forces within the framework of the State Armaments Program 2011-2020 (Rus. GPW 2020). The modernization of the strategic nuclear forces is considered in Russia as one of the priorities, since the nuclear forces determine Kremlin’s prestige and the position as a superpower. Currently, the nuclear war seems to be a strictly theoretical problem, particularly as far as strategic nuclear strikes are concerned. However, Russia perceives nuclear weapons as a political tool, which may be used against other countries. On December 26, 2014, President Putin approved the new The modernization of the strategic nuclear forces is one of the priorities for Russia’s defence ‘Military Doctrine of the Russian industry. Despite economic difficulties, Russians Federation’, which states that “the are modernizing all branches of the Armed Forces Russian Federation shall reserve the and increasing their capabilities in terms of right to use nuclear weapons in response nuclear weapons. The risk of nuclear conflict to the use of nuclear and other types of remains hypothetical, however, it cannot be weapons of mass destruction against it entirely excluded. Modern strategic and tactical and/or its allies, as well as in the event of nuclear weapons are also intended to strengthen aggression against the Russian Russia’s position in global politics. Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy”. -
Speaker Biographies
BIOGRAPHIES OF SPEAKERS 1 Prof. Osamu Arakaki Professor, International Christian University Tokyo, Japan Osamu Arakaki is a professor at International Christian University (ICU), Japan, and an expert of international law and international relations. He received a PhD in Law from Victoria University of WellinGton, New Zealand, and an MA in Political Science from the University of Toronto, Canada. Before he beGan servinG at ICU, he was a junior expert of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). He was also a visitinG fellow at Harvard Law School, USA, visitinG associate professor at the University of Tokyo, Japan, and professor at Hiroshima City University, Japan. His main works include “East Asia: ReGional RefuGee ReGimes” (co-author) in Costello and others (eds), The Oxford Handbook of International RefuGee Law (Oxford University Press, forthcominG), “International Law ConcerninG Infectious Diseases: International Sanitary Conventions in the 1940s” in HoGakushirin, 118:2, (2020), Statelessness Conventions and Japanese Laws: Convergence and Divergence (UNHCR Representation in Japan, 2015) and RefuGee Law and Practice in Japan (AshGate, 2008). Source: https://acsee.iafor.org/dvteam/osamu-arakaki/ 2 Laurie Ashton Of Counsel, Keller Rohrback Phoenix, Arizona Laurie Ashton is Of Counsel to Keller Rohrback. Prior to becominG Of Counsel, she was a partner in the Arizona affiliate of Keller Rohrback. Early in her career, as an adjunct professor, she tauGht semester courses in LawyerinG Theory and Practice and Advanced Business Reorganizations. She also served as a law clerk for the Honorable Charles G. Case, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, for the District of Arizona for two years. An important part of Laurie’s international work involves the domestic and international leGal implications of treaty obliGations and breaches. -
Melbourne Journal of International Law [Vol 21(1)
Advance Copy REMEDYING THE LIMITATIONS OF THE CTBT? TESTING UNDER THE TREATY ON THE PROHIBITION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS Remedying the Limitations of the CTBT CHRISTOPHER P EVANS* Various limitations on the testing of nuclear weapons already exist within international law, including the Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapons Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and Under Water of 1963, along with further restrictions on where testing is permitted and the maximum yield of such tests. Yet it was not until 1996 that the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (‘CTBT’) was adopted, representing the first globally reaching prohibition of all forms of testing that result in a nuclear weapon ‘explosion’. The CTBT does not, however, cover subcritical and computer simulated nuclear tests, which can ensure the safety and reliability of existing stockpiles, thus undermining the CTBT’s implications for nuclear disarmament. More importantly, due to the onerous entry-into-force requirements under art XIV, the CTBT is not yet binding on states and is unlikely to become so in the near future. A further contribution to the legal restrictions on nuclear weapon testing has recently been provided by the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (‘TPNW’), which was adopted in July 2017. Under art 1(1)(a), states party undertake never, under any circumstances, to ‘develop’ or ‘test’ nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. Given the challenges facing the CTBT, this article seeks to analyse the extent of the testing prohibition established under art 1(1)(a) as well as the scope of the prohibition of development in order to determine whether the TPNW closes the testing ‘loophole’ established by the CTBT by including subcritical and computer simulated testing within either of these prohibitions. -
Nuclear Status Report Additional Nonproliferation Resources
NUCLEAR NUCLEAR WEAPONS, FISSILE MATERIAL, AND STATUS EXPORT CONTROLS IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION REPORT NUMBER 6 JUNE 2001 RUSSIA BELARUS RUSSIA UKRAINE KAZAKHSTAN JON BROOK WOLFSTHAL, CRISTINA-ASTRID CHUEN, EMILY EWELL DAUGHTRY EDITORS NUCLEAR STATUS REPORT ADDITIONAL NONPROLIFERATION RESOURCES From the Non-Proliferation Project Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Russia’s Nuclear and Missile Complex: The Human Factor in Proliferation Valentin Tikhonov Repairing the Regime: Preventing the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction with Routledge Joseph Cirincione, editor The Next Wave: Urgently Needed Steps to Control Warheads and Fissile Materials with Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom Matthew Bunn The Rise and Fall of START II: The Russian View Alexander A. Pikayev From the Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies The Chemical Weapons Convention: Implementation Challenges and Solutions Jonathan Tucker, editor International Perspectives on Ballistic Missile Proliferation and Defenses Scott Parish, editor Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Options for Control UN Institute for Disarmament Research William Potter, Nikolai Sokov, Harald Müller, and Annette Schaper Inventory of International Nonproliferation Organizations and Regimes Updated by Tariq Rauf, Mary Beth Nikitin, and Jenni Rissanen Russian Strategic Modernization: Past and Future Rowman & Littlefield Nikolai Sokov NUCLEAR NUCLEAR WEAPONS, FISSILE MATERIAL, AND STATUS EXPORT CONTROLS IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION REPORT NUMBER 6 JUNE -
US Nuclear Weapons
U.S. NUCLEAR DETERRENCE POLICY Today's Strategic Environment: Increasingly Complex and Dangerous For decades, the United States led the world in efforts to reduce the role and number of nuclear weapons. Successive treaties enabled reductions in accountable strategic U.S. nuclear warheads, first to 6,000, and ultimately to 1,550. Thousands of shorter-range nuclear weapons not covered by any treaty were almost entirely eliminated from the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Overall, the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile has drawn down by more than 85 percent from its Cold War high. Many hoped conditions had been set for even deeper reductions in global nuclear arsenals. Unfortunately, the United States and our allies now face a security environment with increased complexity and worsening strategic threats. Today’s central challenge to our security is the reemergence of long-term strategic competition with Russia and China. While the United States has focused on maintaining its existing nuclear systems, Russia and China have increased the role of nuclear weapons in their strategies and have been actively increasing the size and sophistication of their nuclear forces. Further, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities threaten our allies and homeland and add to an already complex strategic picture. Russia has been developing, testing, and fielding new systems for its nuclear triad over the past decade. This includes new road-mobile and silo-based ICBMs, ballistic missile submarines and missiles, bomber aircraft, and cruise missiles. Russia is also actively testing never-before-seen nuclear weapon capabilities, such as hypersonic glide vehicles, nuclear-powered cruise missiles, and nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicles. -
Strengthening U.S.-Taiwan Defense Relations
energ securit STRENGTHENING U.S.-TAIWAN rogra DEFENSE RELATIONS POLITICAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS Foreword by Admiral Jonathan W. Greenert he U.S.-Taiwan relationship is under the spotlight at a critical time. Concerns are rising over China’s global campaign to undermine Taiwan’s legitimacy. A freeze has occurred in official cross-strait exchanges since the Tsai Ing-wen administration took office, the U.S.-China trade relationship is increasingly tense, and the Trump administration has shown a growing interest in Tthe Indo-Pacific region. Washington is certainly aware of Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. The rapid pace of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) modernization has positioned China to carry out its active defense strategy in the western Pacific, South China Sea, and Indian Ocean within a few years. Despite the continuous presence of these strategic and military challenges, Washington still lacks a consensus on how to strike a balance between the merits of fostering defense relations with Taipei and the costs of retaliation from Beijing. During the Obama administration, the United States’ and Taiwan’s diverging views on defense policy and cooperation posed obstacles to bilateral security ties. Due to rapid Chinese military modernization and then president Ma Ying-jeou’s prioritization of relations with China, the United States developed an “asymmetrical defense” framework for its arms sales policy. This framework essentially meant that Taiwan had to rely on its geography and focus on anti-landing operations to counter a PLA amphibious invasion scenario. The United States expected Taiwan to invest most heavily in land-based mobile antiship cruise missiles, sea mines, and multiple-launch rocket systems. -
China Task Force Report
SEPTEMBER 2020 CHINA TASK FORCE REPORT CHAIRMAN MICHAEL McCAUL U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTEENTH CONGRESS TIMELINE: 40 YEARS OF U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS 1972 2015 President Richard Nixon visits the People’s Republic President Obama hosts Chairman Xi for a state visit, of China (PRC) in February and meets with Chairman where the PRC pledges they do “not intend to pursue Mao Zedong militarization” of the South China Sea 1979 2018 Then-President Jimmy Carter grants full diplomatic In response to IP theft and other harmful trade relations with the PRC practices, President Donald Trump begins to place taris on imports from the PRC. The PRC retaliates with taris of their own, kicking o a trade war 1984 President Ronald Reagan visits the PRC 2019 March: Hong Kongers begin to protest the Hong Kong 1989 extradition bill Tiananmen Square massacre May: U.S. Commerce Department places Huawei on its 1993 “Entity List,” restricting its access to U.S. technology Clinton launches what’s known as “constructive engagement” with the PRC November: In response to the brutal crackdown by the police, President Trump signs the Hong Kong Human 1996 Rights and Democracy Act The PRC attempts to influence the 1996 election through illegal campaign donations 2020 The CCP covers up the coronavirus outbreak, allowing 2000 the virus to turn into a pandemic U.S. and the PRC normalize trade relations and the PRC joins the World Trade Organization June 30th: The PRC passes a new national security law imposing severe punishments for anyone both inside 2008 and outside Hong Kong for encouraging democratic The PRC becomes the largest foreign holder of U.S. -
Russia Nuclear Chronology
Russia Nuclear Chronology 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 2002 | 2001-2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997-1993 Last update: July 2010 This annotated chronology is based on the data sources that follow each entry. Public sources often provide conflicting information on classified military programs. In some cases we are unable to resolve these discrepancies, in others we have deliberately refrained from doing so to highlight the potential influence of false or misleading information as it appeared over time. In many cases, we are unable to independently verify claims. Hence in reviewing this chronology, readers should take into account the credibility of the sources employed here. Inclusion in this chronology does not necessarily indicate that a particular development is of direct or indirect proliferation significance. Some entries provide international or domestic context for technological development and national policymaking. Moreover, some entries may refer to developments with positive consequences for nonproliferation 2010 10 January 2010 UNIT OF VOLGODONSK POWER PLANT UNDERGOES EMERGENCY SHUTDOWN The first power unit of the Volgodonsk nuclear power plant in south Russia was shut down by an emergency protection system. Problems with a steam generator were the likely cause of the protection system activation. Rosenergoatom reported a normal level of background radiation at the plant. The Volgodonsk power plant began operating in 2001. It is situated some 1,000 km (621 miles) south of Moscow and has a single pressurized water reactor. —"Radiation Level Normal at Volgodonsk NPP After Emergency Shutdown," RIA Novosti, 1 January 2010, http://en.rian.ru; "Volgodonsk NPP Shuts Down First Power Unit in Emergency Mode," RIA Novosti, 1 January 2010, http://en.rian.ru.