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Gabungan AQRS SMC Research Malaysia Equity Explorer Gabungan AQRS Bloomberg: AQRS MK | Reuters: AQRS.MK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 13 Jun 2018 NOT RATED RM1.10 KLCI : 1,764.16 Fastest growing contractor Closing price as of 12 Jun 2018 Earnings delivery from its peak RM2.7bn orderbook Return *: 1 with continued overhead reduction has been impressive Risk: Moderate Strong beneficiary of ECRL and Pan Borneo Sabah Potential Target 12-mth* : 12-Month RM 2.12 continuity (93% upside) Valuations are unjustifiably cheap at 5.0x-8.7x FY18- Analyst 19F EPS; on the back or 2-year CAGR of 89.9% for Siti Ruzanna Mohd Faruk +603 2604 3965 FY17-19F, rising ROE and improving balance sheet. Fair [email protected] value at RM2.12 The Business Tjen San CHONG +60 3 26043972 [email protected] Up and coming contractor. Gabungan AQRS is gaining prominence in the construction space with sizeable new project wins in FY16-17 which included a large package for LRT 3. All these projects were won on a competitive tender basis. It also has a property development, precast Price Relative business and a recurring income base from the maintenance of Petronas RM Relative Index 2.4 Basecamp in Sipitiang. Its construction segment contributed 77% to 213 2.2 193 group revenue in FY17. 2.0 173 1.8 153 1.6 Strong beneficiary of ECRL and Pan Borneo Sabah continuity. While its 1.4 133 current orderbook points to sufficient earnings visibility, its new order 1.2 113 1.0 93 replenishment will receive a big boost with the likely continuity of the 0.8 73 East Coast Railway Link (ECRL) and Pan Borneo Sabah. The high cost of 0.6 53 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 cancellation incurred for ECRL may eventually see this project being continued albeit at a lower cost of c.RM40bn. For Pan Borneo Sabah, it Gabungan AQRS (LHS) Relative KLCI (RHS) has jointly bid for 4 civil packages and it is one of the two precast Forecasts and Valuation suppliers in Sabah. It owns a 49% stake in Sedco Precast where the FY Dec (RMm) 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue 469 748 1,236 1,425 balance 51% is owned by the State Government. Its established EBITDA 106 122 194 214 relationship with the State government coupled with its majority Pre-tax Profit 81.2 102 175 194 shareholder owning a stake in the master developer for Kota SAS new Net Profit 48.0 74.7 130 144 state administrative centre (which is expected to house an ECRL station) Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 36.0 74.7 130 144 will likely result in more contract flows from the Kota SAS project. EPS (sen) 10.6 12.7 22.0 24.4 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 7.95 12.7 22.0 24.4 Fastest growing contractor. We forecast a 2-year EPS CAGR of 89.9% EPS Gth (%) 83 19 74 11 for FY17-19F, anchored by its RM2.7bn outstanding orderbook and EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 83 19 74 11 forecasted RM800m-1.0bn per annum new wins over the next three Diluted EPS (sen) 8.14 12.7 22.0 24.4 years. The property business is expected to turn around this year and Net DPS (sen) 1.97 2.53 4.40 4.87 accelerate in FY19F with its attractively priced E-Island Residence project. BV Per Share (sen) 103 88.6 106 126 FY17 was hit by liquidated ascertained damages (LADs)/ write-offs. The PE (X) 10.3 8.7 5.0 4.5 company has also painstakingly undergone a transformation to reduce PE Pre Ex. (X) 10.3 8.7 5.0 4.5 its net gearing and bring down operating cost, which is already filtering P/Cash Flow (X) 3.3 nm 32.2 6.4 through in its financials. EV/EBITDA (X) 5.2 5.9 3.8 3.1 Net Div Yield (%) 1.8 2.3 4.0 4.4 The Stock P/Book Value (X) 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Fair value at RM2.12. Our fair value is SOP-based where construction ROAE (%) 13.3 15.2 22.6 21.0 forms c.80% of our total SOP. Its valuation is at a bargain following the recent sell down resulting from the review of the ECRL after the general Consensus EPS (sen): 13.4 17.6 22.8 elections. The stock is trading at just 5.0x-8.7x FY18-19F EPS with a 2- Other Broker Recs: B: 4 S: - H: - year EPS CAGR of 89.9% for FY17-19F (making it the fastest growing contractor in our universe). ICB Industry : Industrials At A Glance ICB Sector: Construction & Materials Issued Capital (m shrs) 475 Principal Business: Gabungan AQRS Bhd is a full service property Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 529 / 131 development and construction company. The Company's activities Major Shareholders (%) include property development, civil and infrastructure works. Ganjaran Gembira 11.2 Source of all data on this page: Company, AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Chee Cheoon Ow 7.1 Finance L.P Employees Provident Fund 6.2 Free Float (%) 53 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 1.4 . *This Equity Explorer report represents a preliminary assessment of the subject company, and does not represent initiation into DBSV’s coverage universe. As such DBSV does not commit to regular updates on an ongoing basis. The rating system is distinct from stocks in our regular coverage universe and is explained further on the back page of this report. ed: CK / sa: WMT, PY, CS Equity Explorer Gabungan AQRS REVENUE DRIVERS Chart 1 : Revenue Breakdown Slew of impressive construction projects. Gabungan AQRS is RM m involved in multiple infrastructure and building projects. Completed 1,600 projects include the MRT 1 Package V1 from Sungai Buloh to Kota 1,400 280 Damansara with a contract value of RM474m. It was also given 1,200 additional work for the construction and completion of a viaduct 1,000 396 guide way for SSP Spur Line (contract value of RM47m) which was 800 reflected in FY17 earnings. Order book replenishment has been 204 600 1,132 impressive post the transformation exercise with RM1.5bn wins in 400 92 828 FY16 and RM1.3bn in FY17. FY17 order wins include LRT 3 60 102 532 200 366 (RM1.1bn), its largest job to date. Other major ongoing projects 212 220 - include the Sungai Besi – Ulu Kelang Elevated Expressway (SUKE) 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Construction Property Package CA3 (RM628m) as well as building project Pusat Pentadbiran Sultan Ahmad Shah (PPSAS) (RM361m). The Table 1: Key ongoing construction projects construction segment contributed c.77% to FY17 revenue which Light Rail Transit 3 included RM47m pre-tax gain from MRT 1 variation works. Project Value RM1.137bn However, excluding the exceptional gain, PBT margins were Date of possesion 5 October 2017 attractive at c.30% backed by progressing stages of construction as Construction period 38 months well as efficient cost control. Developer Prasarana Malaysia Bhd Main contractor Gabungan Strategik Sdn Bhd Property segment. Gabungan AQRS is also involved in property Pusat Pentadbiran Sultan Ahmad Shah (PPSAS) Project Value RM362m development projects. Some of the completed projects are Kinrara Date of possesion 27 December 2016 Uptown (RM230m GDV), Contours (RM160m GDV) and Permas Construction period 39 months Centro (RM180 GDV). The property segment only contributed Developer Kreatif Sinar Gabungan Sdn Bhd c.20% to FY17 revenue with losses of RM27m due to a property Main contractor Gabungan Strategik Sdn Bhd Sungai Besi - Ulu Kelang Elevated Expressway (SUKE) Package CA3 development write-off cost in respect of land sale and provision of Project Value RM628m LAD. Ongoing projects include The Peak, Johor Bahru (RM696m Date of possesion 28 August 2016 GDV) where 30% has been sold as well as Contours which is Construction period 40 months completed but 83% sold. Upcoming projects are the One Jesselton Main contractor Syarikat Muhibah Perniagaan & Pembinaan Sdn Bhd Sub contractor Gabungan Strategik Sdn Bhd Waterfront (RM1.8bn GDV) and E’Island Residence, Putra Perdana (RM491m). Both upcoming projects are slated to be launched in Table 2: Property projects 2018. The Peak @ Iskandar, Johor Bahru Development Details High rise luxury residential with 668 units Steady income from Petronas Basecamp. Gabungan AQRS enjoys a Land Size 5.43 acres recurring income stream from its Petronas Basecamp in Sipitang Estimated GDV RM696m 2018 with revenue of RM2.8m every quarter. This rental agreement is for Expected completion 5+5 years with Petronas Chemicals Fertiliser Sabah Sdn Bhd. E'Island Residence, Putra Perdana Land Owner AQRS The Building Company Sdn Bhd KEY OPERATING ASSETS Contractor Gabungan Strategik Sdn Bhd Development Details 1,140 condominium units Land assets. Its joint venture with Suria Capital Holdings Bhd, One Land Size 19.03 acres Jesselton Waterfront is located on 6.82 acres of prime waterfront Estimated GDV RM491m real estate in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah and carries RM1.8bn in GDV. Expected completion Aug-21 Other land assets include 19.03 acres for the PR1MA Putra Perdana Selling Price RM280k - RM495k development and 5.43 acres for The Peak, Johor Bahru. Source: Company, AllianceDBS Page 2 Equity Explorer Gabungan AQRS GROWTH PROSPECTS Rapid Transit System (RTS) and BRT system will spur demand for The Peak. This project has no more bank borrowings tied to it and needs Rosy prospects for orderbook. Its current orderbook stands at an incremental cost of c.RM120m to complete (RM90m RM3.4bn with unbilled orders of RM2.7bn as of end-Mar 2018.
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