 Organizing Committee Venue Universität

Welckerstr. 8 | Room 2.16 Prof. Dr. Ulrich Fritsche DE-20354 Hamburg Chair of Applied Department of Socioeconomics Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences Universitaet Hamburg Welckerstr. 8 | DE-20354 Hamburg CONFERENCE  +49 (0)40 42838-8685 [email protected] “FUTURES PAST.  ECONOMIC FORECASTING

TH ST Dr. Roman Köster IN THE 20 AND 21 Assistant Professor at the Chair of New and Newest CENTURY” of Western Europe Department of History Albert-Ludwigs- of Freiburg Rempartstr. 15 | DE-79085 Freiburg  +49 (0)761 203-3451 OCTOBER 10-11 2018 [email protected]

Laetitia Lenel, M.A. Research Assistant at the Chair of Social and Economic History

Department of History

Humboldt-University of Website

Unter den Linden 6 | DE-10099 Berlin www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/hh-forecast

 +49 (0)30 2093- 70615 Conference Office [email protected] [email protected]  +49 (0)40 42838-8733  Futures Past. Economic  Wednesday 10.10.2018  Thursday 11.10.2018 12:00- Forecasting in the 20th Registration 09:00 + Coffee available 13:00 and 21st Century 13:00- Welcoming Note: 09:30- Keynote: 13:15 Anke Gerber (member of the Faculty Board) 10:30 Tara Sinclair (George-Washington-University) 13:15- “Continuities and Discontinuities in Forecasting” Few areas in economics are as controversial as economic Opening Remarks 13:30 forecasting. While the field has sparked great hopes for 10:30- 13:30- Keynote: Coffee break (15 min) the prediction of economic trends and events through- 10:45 14:30 Jamie Pietruska (Rutgers University) out the 20th and 21st century, economic forecasts have 10:45- Session III – Practices of Economic Forecasting: “Economic Forecasting and the Quest for Certainty 12:15 Foresight, Forecast, Foretalk (Lenel) often proved inaccurate or unreliable, thus provoking in the Long Gilded Age” severe criticism in times of unpredicted crisis. 14:30- 1. Jan Logemann (University of Göttingen) Coffee break (15 min) “Consumer Confidence Measurements: The Trans- 14:45 Despite these failures, economic forecasting has not lost national History of an Economic Indicator” 14:45- Session I – “Culture of Prediction”? Economic in importance. Forecasting constitutes one of the most 2. Werner Reichmann () 16:15 Forecasting in Context (Köster) important activities carried out by institutes of eco- “Social Interaction and Economic Forecasting” nomic research. Economic forecasts receive extensive 1. Laetitia Lenel (Humboldt-University) 3. Michael Roos (Ruhr-Universität Bochum) media coverage and attain great public attention. Not- “From Predicting to Creating the Future: Different “More Foresight, Less Forecasting in Macroeconom- withstanding the challenges and difficulties economic Temporalities in Economic Forecasting” ics“ forecasting faces, it apparently inhabits a crucial place in 2. Vera Linke ( University) 12:15- Lunch & Walk modern industrial societies. „Promises to Pay: Assuring Stakeholder of Insurance 13:45 Offices’ Future Solvency“ This indicates that the role of economic forecasts is not 13:45- Session IV – Changes in Practice: The Effect of 3. Stefan Schwarzkopf (CBS) solely to predict economic trends and events. Rather, 15:15 Crises on Forecasting Practices (Heinisch) “Market Atmospheres: An Alternative Genealogy of forecasts seem to constitute a means of observing eco- Financial Barometers” 1. Michael Bauer (Federal Reserve Bank of SF) nomic developments that helps actors to coordinate and 16:15- “Interest Rates Under Falling Stars” Coffee break (30 min) stabilize their expectations of an uncertain future. Pos- 16:45 2. Jörg Döpke (Univ. of Applied Sciences Merseburg) sibly, whether an individual forecast comes to pass is of 16:45- Session II – Institutional and Interactional Di- “Has macroeconomics forecasters’ attitude and minor importance. Yet, the credibility of forecasts ap- 18:15 mensions of Economic Forecasting (Fritsche) openness towards new methods changed after the pears to be of central importance. Great Financial Crisis and the Great Recession? Evi- 1. Christoph Behrens (Helmut-Schmidt-Universität) dence from a German survey” The conference aims to bring together scholars from dif- “Using Multivariate Random Forests to Study the 3. Marion Ronca (University of Zurich) ferent disciplinary backgrounds to discuss the history of Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts” “The economist as futurologist. The making and re- economic forecasting in the 20th and 21st century. 2. Olivier Pilmis (SciencesPo) ception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland “Changing One’s Mind – Forecast Revisions as Insti- 1964-1975” The purpose of this two-day interdisciplinary conference tutional and Informational Dynamics” 15:15- is to foster the exchange between forecasters, econo- 3. Timo Walter (MPI ) Coffee break (30 min) 15:45 mists, historians, and other scholars from the social sci- “Polysemous Expectations and the ‘Usefulness of In- ences and the humanities. Contributions from the fields accurate Models’ (…)” 15:45- Closing Discussion: “The History and Future of Economic Forecasting: of history, , , , and eco- 17:00 18:30 Taxi transfer to restaurant Challenges and Opportunities” nomics are equally welcome. 19:00- Dinner “with a view” 21:30