E Explainedlokniti-Csds Post-Poll Survey
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WWW.INDIANEXPRESS.COM THE INDIAN EXPRESS,THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2019 9 E EXPLAINED LOKNITI-CSDS POST-POLL SURVEY How Jharkhand result fits into a pattern Data from the Lokniti-CSDS Post-Poll Survey underline the difference in the roles played by local and national factors in determining the outcome. In keeping with recent trends across the country, this Assembly poll saw a focus on local issues and a limited influence of the central leaders of parties, particularly the BJP Shibu Soren FIGURE 1: PREFERENCE FOR 4 FIGURE 2: DECLINE IN SATISFACTION WITH CENTRAL GOVT (%) TABLE 3: BJP LOST TWO OF FIVE OF ITS LOK SABHA VOTERS TO OTHER PARTIES, CHIEF MINISTER (%) Any other Any other from QUESTION ASKED: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of GAINED VERY LITTLE FROM OTHERS’ SUPPORTERS from BJP Arjun JMM+ the BJP/NDA government at the Centre? Party voted for in Assembly Election 2019 Munda 5 7 JMM-Congress+ BJP AJSU JVM Others 10 Hemant Soren 15 Sudesh Mahto Fully satisfied with JMM-Cong-RJD’s LS 2019 voter 73 3 2 4 18 21 Modi government 24 6 31 BJP’s LS 2019 voter 17 58 9 4 12 Other Leaders Somewhat 32 AJSU’s LS 2019 voter 7 32 61 — — satisfied 52 13 49 JVM’s LS 2019 voter 29 2 2 60 7 Anyone would do Somewhat 32 Others’ LS 2019 voter 10 — 2 — 88 10 dissatisfied 15 Did not reveal LS vote 17 8 14 13 48 10 Raghubar Das No answer Did not vote in LS elections 33 23 7 4 34 Fully dissatisfied 15 2019 Vidhan Sabha 14 10 with Modi 8 2019 Lok Sabha government 6 Note: Figures are percentages and may not add up to 100 because of rounding off 2014 Vidhan Sabha tent of dissatisfaction with the state govern- 5 No response 1 Note: Percentages may not TABLE 4: COMMUNITY-WISE GAINS & LOSSES SINCE 2014 (%) ment increased from 37 per cent in April-May 4 DECISION 2019. Five years ago, the post-poll survey add up to 100 due to rounding JMM-Congress+ gains/ BJP gains/losses 2019 done at the time of the 2014 state assembly losses compared to 2014 compared to 2014 elections indicated that just over one-third CASTE-COMMUNITIES (34%) of the respondents were dissatisfied JHARKHAND TABLE 1: DAS GOVT ASSESSED FAR MORE NEGATIVELY THAN SOREN GOVT Upper caste -2 -8 with the then Soren government in the state. What is more, no community was actu- QUESTION ASKED: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Yadav +11 -14 ally much satisfied with the state government. ruling state government in Jharkhand? Kurmi -11 -4 SUHAS PALSHIKAR, Among all communities, net satisfaction with Other OBC +2 -6 SANDEEP SHASTRI & the state government was negative (i.e., more During 2019 During 2019 During 2014 SANJAY KUMAR respondents were dissatisfied than those sat- Vidhan Sabha Lok Sabha Vidhan Sabha Jatav +1 -2 isfied). With voter dissatisfaction thus spread (Das govt) (Das govt) (Soren govt) Other SC -1 +14 THE LOSS of an incumbent government is across the social sections, it would have been Fully satisfied 13 13 11 not very dramatic, but losing over 17 per cent a surprise if the BJP had managed to win be- Oraon (Hindu and Christian) +8 -21 Somewhat satisfied 26 48 51 of the vote in just six months is indeed deeply cause past surveys have indicated that an in- Santhal(Hindu and Christian) +2 +13 troubling for a government. This is what the cumbent government which evokes a high Somewhat dissatisfied 31 27 14 Munda (Hindu and Christian) -7 +22 Jharkhand results have brought about for the level of dissatisfaction from voters is often Fully dissatisfied 24 10 20 BJP. As the post-poll carried out by Lokniti- voted out of power. Jharkhand proves to be no Other ST -11 -13 CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing exception in this regard. No response 6 2 5 Note: Although JMM and Congress-RJD contested separately in 2014, the JMM-Congress gains and Societies) shows, there are many state-level No wonder, half the respondents said they Note: Figures are percentages & may not total 100 due to rounding losses here have been calculated after combining JMM and Congress-RJD vote share of 2014; although factors contributing to this debacle but, at did not want the Das government to be given Sample size (N) in 2019 VS - 2700; N in LS 2019 - 648; N in 2014 - 1608 the same time, the larger impact would still another chance. Only a little over one in every BJP and AJSU contested separately in 2019, BJP gains and losses here have been calculated with respect haunt the BJP. three voters were willing to give the govern- to the BJP-AJSU alliance in 2014. The Jharkhand elections happened when ment another chance — incidentally, that is ex- TABLE 2: WHICH OF THESE MATTERED MOST TO VOTERS (%) the national scene was becoming more and actly the vote share of the BJP in the election. TABLE 5: THE RELIGION VOTE, AS SHARED AMONG PARTIES more heated due to the national-level debate A linked factor is the low levels of approval Party Candidate CM candidate Narendra Modi on the question of citizenship. As such, a first for the incumbent Chief Minister (Figure 1). Voters of JMM+ 50 32 12 1 JMM-Congress+ BJP AJSU JVM Others temptation would be to see the Jharkhand out- When respondents were asked an open- BJP voters 50 18 9 21 Hindu 31 39 9 6 16 come in retrospect as a response to all-India is- ended question on who they would prefer as Muslim 53 14 5 6 22 sues. In order to understand how the BJP lost the Chief Minister after the Assembly polls, AJSU Voters 57 30 5 3 this election and how JMM and its allies man- just over one of every ten respondents (14%) JVM voters 44 42 12 2 Christian 41 23 7 4 25 aged to win, it is necessary to dispel this temp- mentioned the name of Raghubar Das. Voters of other parties 31 61 3 2 Other 40 28 9 4 19 tation and situate the outcome firmly into the Hemant Soren’s name was mentioned by Overall 43 30 8 8 dynamics of state politics of Jharkhand. over one-fifth of the respondents (21%). This Note: Figures are percentages and may not add up to 100 because of rounding off seven-percentage-point gap between the in- No CAA resonance cumbent and his challenger is indicative of TABLE 6: ECONOMIC ISSUES TOP TABLE 7: IN VOTING PATTERNS BY KEY SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHICS IN JHARKHAND, TABLE 8: BJP RETAINS ONLY HALF For instance, did the de- how the popularity of PRIORITY FOR VOTERS PREFERENCES ARE MOST DIVIDED AMONG ECONOMIC CLASSES ITS ST VOTE SINCE LS POLLS bate around the Citizenship state-level leaders could BJP’s retention of its LS vote Amendment Act (CAA) have influenced the elec- QUESTION ASKED: What was the JMM-Congress+ BJP AJSU JVM Others Communities make any difference? toral verdict. single most important issue for you EDUCATION There is very little evidence while voting in this election? Upper caste 70 to indicate this. The last two Modi factor Non Literate 38 31 9 5 18 Unemployment 18 Yadav 49 rounds of voting (fourth limited Up to Primary 32 37 8 6 16 Kurmi 58 and fifth) were held after For quite some time Rising prices 16 Up to Matric 38 34 8 5 15 the debate on the now, the Indian electorate Other OBC 65 Development and governance 10 Citizenship Amendment has been making a clear College and above 33 33 8 5 22 SC 57 Bill and the passage of the distinction between na- Education and health 10 AGE ST 49 legislation. The BJP won tional-level and state polls. Corruption 9 Up to 25 yrs 35 31 9 5 20 Religion eight of the 15 seats that The data clearly indicate went to polls in the fourth that national issues could Basic needs 7 26-35 yrs 35 34 10 6 16 Hindu 60 round. In 2014, the BJP had well have been accorded a Poverty 6 36-45 yrs 37 32 7 6 18 Muslim 66 won 11 of these 15 seats. In lower level of priority in Political choice-related 4 46-55 yrs 39 34 6 5 16 Christian 40 the seats that went to polls While the BJP had an the state polls. In an Other 49 in the fifth round, the BJP Assembly poll, local fac- Crimes and law & order 4 56 yrs and above 32 36 8 6 19 8-percentage-point Economic classes won three of the 16 seats tors and the impact of eco- Housing 3 ECONOMIC CLASS Poor 61 and had won five of the 16 advantage in terms nomic factors appear to Poor 38 36 9 3 14 in 2014. Further, the CAA play an important role. Farmer woes 2 Lower 53 of the Hindu vote, Lower 37 31 10 5 17 and NRC were rarely men- Nevertheless, some attri- Caste and tribal identity related 2 Middle 59 tioned by respondents as a the JMM alliance had tion in the overall popular- Middle 34 34 8 6 19 Terrorism and Naxalism 2 Rich 65 factor that influenced the an 18-percentage- ity of the BJP is evident. So Rich 32 35 5 7 20 way they voted. This, de- much so, that even the Environment 1 Age groups point lead among OCCUPATION spite reports that top BJP “Modi factor” played a Hindutva-related <1 18-25 51 leaders did mention this is- the Christians, and a limited role and voters Farmers 36 40 7 5 12 26-35 62 NRC and CAA <1 sue in their campaign rhet- 39-percentage-point seemed to have begun to Non-farmers 35 32 8 6 19 36-45 55 oric with the Prime be disenchanted with the Other issues 1 46-55 66 Minister defending CAA as lead among the central government as No response 5 “1,000 percent correct”.