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Limits to Growth Ghost Photography Australia's Ceremony Country Kelvin Limits to growth Ghost photography Australia’s ceremony country Kelvin Cruickshank back on the road number 94 - summer 2010 content editorial Apocalypse soon: Unwarranted skepticism and the growth fetish 3 Room for all in Digital Photography and the Paranormal 7 discussion group Newsfront 10 Travels in ceremony country 13 HE nzskeptics Yahoo discussion group has been very busy of Tlate, with December 2009 registering more than 300 new mes- On the threshold of a dream 16 sages – the largest number in the almost five years of the group’s Forum 18 existence. In large measure this has been thanks to contributions from a couple of participants who hold views which I would assume The spiritual Science of Alpha most of our members don’t share. Beta, healer to the stars 18 Owlcat: definitely not coming One of these was a scientologist, the other a chiropractor. Topics to a place near you, discussed ranged beyond the core concerns of these two camps into any time soon 19 Chinese medicine, psychiatry, evolution and the nature of the soul. Although the tone sometimes veered towards exasperation, the debates with one or two exceptions were generally conducted in good spirit, and didn’t degenerate into the flame wars that internet discussions are notorious for. A good thing too – when scientolo- ISSN - 1172-062X gists and chiropractors make their presence known on the group, it’s a reminder that it is open to anyone who cares to sign up. Skeptics Contributions are on public display, and some will judge the society by the way a Contributions are welcome and few individuals behave. should be sent to: The flurry of activity seems to be dying down again, at least for David Riddell the time being. Ultimately fatigue sets in, as entrenched positons 122 Woodlands Rd show no signs of shifting, and one by one people drop out. But RD1 Hamilton Email: [email protected] discussions like these are still worthwhile. While occasionally frus- trating, they serve the function of giving participants the chance to Deadline for next issue: hone their arguments, and to examine issues from perspectives they March 10 2010 may not have considered, as well as providing a stimulus to further Letters for the Forum may be edited reading and research. Many more read than actively take part, and as space requires - up to 250 words derive some pleasure from following the exchanges – although my is preferred. Please indicate the mailer’s Deleted folder currently has a stack of 32 unread messages publication and date of all clippings with the subject line ‘Chiropractors’. There are only so many hours for the Newsfront. in a day, after all. Material supplied by email or CD is appreciated. A group where everyone held similar views would get boring very quickly. nzskeptics, for now, is working well, and has become Permission is given to other non- a valuable extension of the society’s activities. Thanks are due to profit skeptical organisations to Simon Clendon for getting it up and running and maintaining it. reprint material from this publication provided the author and NZ Skeptic And Kevin, Justin, and all the other regulars on nzskeptics, your are acknowledged. contributions are appreciated too. Opinions expressed in the New Zealand Skeptic are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the views of NZ Skeptics (Inc.) or its officers. Subscription details are available from www.skeptics.org.nz or PO Box 29-492, Christchurch. number 94 – summer 2010 main feature Apocalypse soon: Unwarranted skepticism and the growth fetish John Robinson The dire predictions of the Club of Rome’s 1972 report on The Limits to Growth have supposedly been refuted by subsequent studies, but the refutations have serious shortcomings. This article is based on a presentation to the NZ Skeptics 2009 conference in Wellington, 26 September. E belong to a species peak will happen sooner, around aspects of a greater complexity. Wthat dominates the planet. 2030. The thought of possible global After millennia of steady growth collapse within one lifetime This model was based on a which have altered regional en- impressed me and I set off on considerable body of research vironments and killed off many a new career. I have found that and is supported by many other species, the human population the picture based on physical more detailed studies. Here has exploded during one life- science can readily be fleshed we have a picture of a world in time. Whereas it took millennia out by reference to past historical which population may plummet to reach the first billion, the hu- events. It is easy to foresee the following an overshoot-and- man population tripled in 140 repetition of population collapse, decline pattern when limits are years to three billion by 1960, social breakdown and war. passed. and is currently trebling again in So here am I proclaiming just 80 years, to nine billion apocalypse in just 20 years. in 2040. We have become a What do you make of it? Ei- plague. ther I am mistaken or society Many scientists, including is just a little bit crazy. J B myself, have been concerned Priestley made this point in with this picture. There relation to William Blake: is considerable evidence “And no doubt those who describing an overpopulated believe that the society we have world, threatened by food and created during the last hundred water shortages, a shortage of and fifty years is essentially oil supplies, and huge changes sound and healthy will continue due to global warming. to believe, if they ever think Consider the message in the about him, that Blake was figure on the right, which insane. But there is more profit adds more recent data to the for mind and soul in believing Projected changes in human populations under Limits to Growth forecasts our society to be increasingly various scenarios: so far actual growth since insane, and Blake (as the few of Meadows et al (1972)� for 1972 is right on track. who knew him well always the Club of Rome’s Project declared)� to be sound and on the Predicament of Man- I looked at this some 35 years healthy.” kind. World population may hit ago with the eyes of an applied a peak around 2040-2050 and I introduce this point as I have mathematician. I had seen that then rapidly decline. My own been treated as a pariah for tak- a model can capture the essence research, including work with a ing up an extremely important of a situation and provide real- number of international forecast- scientific endeavour. Should you istic guidance, just so long as ing projects, suggests that the be sceptical of those like me who the model is based on the key talk of impending catastrophe? page club of rome Certainly, but consider the alter- for six months with t�������he OECD sceptical of the warnings of native which is to put your faith Interfutures project. While I approaching limits. Such scep- in those who have dismissed was able to study an extensive ticism may be better applied the reality of a finite Earth. The collection of input information, to many of the arguments for Limits to Growth was the subject I had no real part in the analysis, continuation of growth; here is of widespread denunciation by which was dominated by a small a New Zealand example. the supporters of status quo In 1990 the Planning Council economic growth. Let’s look at It is ... like the fellow the validity of some of the crit- published a report, The fully ics; we at the DSIR considered falling off a building who employed high income society many and found some bizarre felt that all was well as he (Rose 1990)�, which received arguments. sailed down, before he nationwide publicity due to its reached the pavement. suggestion that sustainable full One key critique was a employment with full incomes 1977 Report to the United was possible by 1995 due to Nations, The Future of the World core group. The 1979 report high rates of productivity in- Economy, by a team headed by includes a claim that would be crease – but otherwise continu- Nobel Prize- winning economist satisfactory to the clients, the ing current policies. Vassilly Leontief. The Dominion wealthy nations of the world: reported that: When I read the document “Economic growth may continue carefully I found some very “Among the most significant during the next half-century in all questionable points: aspects of the study are its rejec- the countries of the world without tion of predictions by the Club (a)� Estimates of employment encountering insurmountable of Rome that the world will run long-term physical limits at the requirements commenced in out of resources and choke on its global level.” 1988 and ignored the significant pollution if it continues to expand loss of jobs between that date its economy.” There are two reasons why this and 1990. statement is misleading. Firstly, The summary of the report (b)� Modelling of productiv- emphasised this theme: all their many computer model calculations stopped in 2000 ity increases commenced with “No insurmountable physical and did not reach out that far, modelling which has proved barriers exist within the twentieth so this is not in any way based unrealistic and overly optimistic, century to the accelerated on the work of so many of us and assumed a further doubling development of the developing in this project. Secondly, they of productivity. regions.” look ahead for just 50 years, (c)� The model run commenced Read that carefully. It says thus stopping short of 2050, in 1984 with these increases in “in the twentieth century”.
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