This file was created by scanning the printed publication. Errors identified by the software have been corrected; however, some errors may remain. Global Change and the Prospects for Humanity in the Knowledge Age1

Thomas F. Malone2

Abstract-Development ofa holistic, integrated, and reliable frame­ Between 1820 and 1992, the world population grew five­ work for characterizing, assessing, and managing North American fold. An expanding storehouse ofhuman knowledge powered forest ecosystems is a task inextricably embedded in the overarch­ an eightfold .increase (albeit highly uneven among and ing challenge confronting society in the twenty-first century. We are within nations) in the average capacity ofindividuals world­ challenged to transform the Environmentally unsustainable, eco­ wide to convert natural resources into goods and services. nomically inequitable and politically unstable trajectory on which The result was aforty-fold expansion in the world economy, global society is presently embarked into a path that is sustainable, accompanied by a 540-fold increase in world trade. The equitable, and stable. An appropriate response to this challenge is added stress on the world's natural resource base of air, to articulate a vision* of the future that exploding knowledge in the land, water, plant, and animal raised questions concerning natural sciences is bringing within reach and, then, to design a the sustainability of environmental support for economic st knowledge-based and stakeholder-driven strategy to pursue this development in the 21 century. These questions were vision. The strategy will involve harnessing that knowledge explo­ sufficien tly worrisome tha t nations of the world gathered at sion to human progress, by (1) integrating it with expanding the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro to frame a strategy for knowledge in the social sciences and the humanities, (2) augment­ addressing them (AGENDA 21). ing this body of knowledge with new fmdings in all disciplines, The issue of sustainability before the Rio conference was (3) disseminating a growing knowledge base widely with the aid of aggravated by a vexing inequity in economic development. a revolution under way in information technologies, and (4) apply­ One-fifth of the world's people in the 46 industrial countries ing this expanding storehouse of all knowledge wisely and imagina­ produced and consumed nearly two-thirds of the global tively to the human choices that will determine the future course of economic output, while the one-third of the world's population society. Nothing less daunting is involved here than changing the in the 62 least-developed nations shared less than one-ten th way people think and act, and making human knowledge an orga­ of that output. The average individual in the industrial nizing principle for society-just as energy and fmance have been countries had access to fourteen times the economic during the 20th century. Entirely new patterns of interdisciplinary production of the average individual in the least-developed collaboration must be fostered. Novel modes of cooperation need to nations. This gap was growing, as were similar gaps within be forged among nations, and among academia, business and individual countries, indicating an inequitable trajectory of industry, the several levels of government and nongovernmental economic development that con tribu ted to poli tical instabili ty. organizations. The proposal is made that the nations of the Ameri­ A scenario postulating population growth at the rates cas act in concert to address this challenge in their own interests and anticipated during the 1990s, combined with gains in the with the intent of creating the prototype of a model that might be capacity of the average individual to produce goods and emulated globally. A suggested agenda for an American Vision and services that prevailed during the 1980s (with adjustment Knowledge Strategy for the 21st century (AVIKS-21) includes as for the spectacular growth in China), indicates a threefold priority items: (1) alternative energy sources to power environmen­ increase in world population and an eightfold increase in the tally benign economic growth, (2) nutritious food, (3) human health, global economy by the year 2050. In that scenario, the 10 and (4) potable water-with an overarching educational theme of percent of the world population in the 46 industrial countries lifelong learning for all individuals. Worldwide, a Global Vision and would have 40 percent of the global production of goods and Strategy for the 21st century (GVIKS-21) is in order to ensure an services, while one-half ofthe world population in the 62less attractive prospect for humanity as we enter the Knowledge Age. It advanced countries would have to share only about 10 is within such an American and Global context that efforts to percent of the global economic output (fig. 1, 2050 A). The develop an effective framework for the care ofNorth American forest gap between the average per capita economic consumption ecosystems are most likely to succeed. in the industrial countries and that in the poor countries for this scenario would increase by 33 percent over the gap in *A society in which all of the basic human needs and an 1990-1991, with troublesome implications for increased equitable share of human wants can be met by individuals political instability. in successive generations, while maintaining indefmitely An alternative scenario assumes a 50 percent reduction in a healthy, physically attractive, and biologically productive population growth rates everywhere with annual gains in environment. individual economic productivity of 1.5 percent in the 46 industrial countries, 3.5 percent in the 65 evolving countries, and 4.5 percent in the 62 least advanced countries. A substantial step toward equity would result (fig. 1,2050 B). Ipaper presented at the North American Science Symposium: Toward a However, the global economy would still be eight times Unified Framework for Inventorying and Monitoring Forest Ecosystem larger than it was in 1990-1991. Resources, Guadalajara, Mexico, November 1-6,1998. Comparable scenarios have been prepared for the sixteen 2Thomas F. Malone, University Distinguished Scholar, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC. countries originally involved in the Inter-American Institute

16 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 70 64 • % Gross world product ~ % World population 60

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Figure 1.-Distribution of gross domestic product (GOP) in relation to population for the two global scenarios described in the text. GOP is given in purchasing power parity dollars that reflect local costs of goods and services rather than exchange rates. (Data from UNDP Human Development Report 1993.)

for Global Change Research (IAI). For these scenarios, the the scenario above. The average individual economic United States and Canada were designated as Tier I countries, productivity would increase threefold and there would be a Uruguay, Argentin Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, marked improvement in equity (fig. 4, 2050 B compared and Mexico were designated as Tier II countries, and Brazil, with 1991). Ecuador, Paraguay, Cuba, Peru, Dominican Republic, and These scenarios suggest that both the World and the Bolivia as Tier III countries. Americas are at a defining moment as the threshold to the A scenario for 2050 based on demographic growth rates 21st century approaches. The issues of environmental anticipated in the 1990s, with gains in the economic sustainability, economic equity, and political stability define productivity of individuals the same as those that prevailed that moment. Even if population were to be stabilized in the during the 1980s, yields a doubled population, and an interests of sustainability, further economic growth in the increase in the aggregate economies of abou t four-and-a -half interests of equity must be achieved with technologies that times. Individual economic productivity would double, but are environmentally benign. Interest is moving toward with a widening gap between the average standard ofliving sustainable solutions (fig. 5), supported by the forward­ in Tier I countries and the one in Tiers II and III (figs. 2 and looking document, Changing Course, contributed to the 3). One-third of the region's population would share more 1992 Earth Summit by the Business Council for Sustainable than four-fifths of the production of goods and services in the Development. regional economy while two-thirds ofthe people in the region It is clearly time to add the arrow of exploding human would share in less than one-fifth of that production (fig. 4, knowledge to the quiver of financial measures that have 2050 A). As David Landes wrote in his classic, The Wealth been deployed in recent decades to address these issues. and Poverty ofNations , "Now the big challenge and threat is Knowledge has been one of the driving forces propelling the gap in wealth and health that separates rich and society along its present trajectory. One key to the increase poor ... Here is the greatest single problem and danger facing in economic productivity and gains in living standards the world millennium." It is worthy of note from Figure 3 between 1820 and 1992 was the continuing accumulation of tha t the increase of $30 trillion in this regional economy in knowledge in the physical sciences-knowledge that made it 1991 would be larger than the total global economy in 1991 possible to harness energy and machines to power economic (about $27 trillion). growth. The explosion of knowledge underway has the An alternative scenario takes as given a 50 percent potential of being a forcing function to change that traj ectory. reduction in demographic growth rates everywhere, with In recent decades, breakthroughs in the biological sciences gains in individual economic productivity of 1.2 percent in have given great leaps in understanding ofliving organisms, Tier I countries and 3.0 percent in Tier II and III countries. fueling the explosion of knowledge in the natural sciences. The aggregate population in IAI countries would increase by There appears to be no limit to the discovery, integration, only 50 percent, however the increment in population would dissemination, and utilization ofknowledge. These attributes be greater than the total population in Canada and The of knowledge have been identified as the proper functions of United States in 1991 (fig. 2). The total economy would still scholarship by the late Ernest Boyer in his classical essay, expand a bou t four-and -one-half times, with an incremental Scholarship Reconsidered. growth greater than the total world economy in 1991, as in

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Figure 2.-Population for two Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research {lAI) scenarios. (Data from the UNDP Human Development Report 1993).

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Figure 3.--Gross domestic product per capita (for two Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) scenarios.

The potential implications of this explosive growth in points out, "Ifwe learn anything from the history of economic knowledge have been magnified by revolutionary development, it is that culture makes all the difference." developments in the technologies for distributing and using At this defining moment in the story of human destiny, we information. These developments open the door to more need to recognize that cascading human knowledge is effective integration of enhanced understanding in the bringing within reach a new vision for society in both the natural sciences with expanding knowledge in the social and World and the Americas. human health sciences-and in the humanities. As Landes

18 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 100 • % Gross IAI product ~ % IAI population 90 82

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Figure 4.-Distribution of gross domestic product in relation to population for two IAI scenarios

This vision is a society in which all of the basic human organisms, energy, information, and human behavior and needs (food, clothing, shelter, etc.) and an equitable share the manner in which they can interact with one another as of human wants (education, culture, luxuries, etc.) can be a force for human progress (fig. 6). met by individuals in successive generations while Discovery involves research that has emerged during this maintaining indefinitely a healthy, physically attractive, and biologically productive environment. century as a highly organized activity in society. Integration requires interdisciplinary collaboration among the physical, Pursuit of this vision will require focused atttention on the biological, health, and social sciences, engineering and the Cascade of Knowledge. humanities. Dissemination implies education extended to This cascade is the nonlinear process connecting the embrace lifelong learning. Wise use of knowledge means discovery, integration, dissemination, and wise use of knowledge concerning the nature of matter, living forging within and among nations new and imaginative

WHOLE: SUST AINABLE POLLUTION PROCESS INDUSTRIAL COf"JTHO! INTECRATION fACILITY ECOLOGY COMMUNITIES PLANNING CITIES/REGIONS TIM E

The shift to more sustainable technologies will mean significantly reducing the amount of energy and materials we use in producing our goods and sevices while decreasing risks to humans and the environment.

Figure S.-Moving toward sustainabe solutions.

USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 19 enriches rather than impoverishes the social environment. In this process, greater attention is given to the quality of economic growth than to the quantity ofthat growth. Political and religious freedom, and personal security, are hallmarks of this process. Communications technologies are near at hand (e.g., internet, distance learning, hyperforums, collaboratories, etc.) to design community-initiated programs, to articulate visions, to analyze options, to make choices, to fashion knowledge-based and stakeholder-driven strategies, to pursue those visions, and to aggregate local and regional efforts to national and international levels. A special opportunity is emerging to link individuals and institutions in an American Knowledge Network (fig. 7) dedicated to the pursuit of a sustainable, equitable, and stable society in the western hemisphere. An agenda for this pursuit would require careful thought. The importance of Figure G.-Schematic representation of the cascade of knowledge. energy to power an expansion in the economy of the region that would exceed the magnitude ofthe entire global economy in 1991 suggests high priority be accorded to developing alternatives to traditional dependence on fossil fuels for modes of cooperation among academia, the several levels of energy. The importance of providing food for an increment of government, business and industry, and the growing array population greater than the combined population of Canada of nongovernmental organizations. and the United States in 1991, suggests emphasis on In stimulating the knowledge cascade, focus is desirable nutritious food, potable water, and human health. Since on developing the capacity of individuals. Knowledge gained knowledge would be a dominant functional activity, an by lifelong learning empowers individuals to expand their overarching educational theme on lifelong learning would be options for meaningful and rewarding participation in the in order. process of socioeconomic development that regenerates rather Parts of the infrastructure for such an initiative are than degrades the physical and biological environment and already in place. The intergovernmental IAI could provide a foundation upon which institutional arrangements could be built, involving the nongovernmental START program. The WhichWorld HyperForum is available (http:// www.hf.caltech.edulWhichWorld).bringingwithinreachon­

Decisions line analysis of the significance oflong-term trends and the interaction of an array of demographic, economic, social, and environmental factors. Which World scenarios for 2050 in Research several regions, including Latin America and the highly industrialized countries, permit on-line exploration of critical issues of public policy. Education The nations of the Americas could create a consortium to focus on an American Vision and Know ledge Strategy for the Americas in the 21 st c.entury (A V/KS-21) to serve the interests Grassroots of their citizens and be a model for a worldwide effort that might be called a Global Vision and Knowledge Strategy for the 21st century (GV/KS-21). From grass roots programs such as these, there could emerge the leaders called Trustees 21 under consideration by the World Economic Conference to serve as catalysts for progress. Not the least important task for these activities would be the development of a holistic, integrated, and reliable framework for characterizing, assessing and managing America's forest ecosystems. The approach proposed above may be the most effective way to proceed with that development.

Readings

Boyer, E. L. 1990. Scholarship reconsidered. Lawrenceville, NJ: Princeton University Press. 146 p. Bugliarello, G. 1995. The global generation, transmission and Figure 7.-Schematic representation of a knowledge network for the diffusion of knowledge: how can the developing countries benefit? Americas.

20 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 In: Marshaling technology for development; proceedings of a Malone, T. F. (convener). 1995. A know ledge network for the science national research council symposium; 1994 November 28-30. agenda of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Washington, DC: National Academy Press: 61-8l. Research. Summary report of a workshop; July 25-28. 22 p. Eddy, J. A; Malone, T. F.; McCarthy, J. J.; Rosswall, T., eds. 1991. Malone, T. F. 1997. A new agenda for science and technology in the Global change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training 21st century; In: Proceedngs of the KOSEF 20th anniversary (START). Global Change Report No. 14. Stockholm: IGBP symposium; June 2-6. Seoul: The Korean Science and Technology Secretariat, Roy. Swedish Academy of Science. 40 p. Foundation: 67-90. Galbraith, J. K.; 1998. Created unequal: the crises in American pay. National Research Council. 1993. National collaboratories. New York: The Free Press. 350 p. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 105 p. Hammond, A 1998. Which world? Scenarios for the 21st century. National Science and Technology Council. 1994. Technology for a Washington, DC: Island Press. 306 p. sustainable future. Washington, DC: The White House, Office of Landes, D. L. 1998. The wealth and poverty of nations. New York: Science and Technology Policy. 154 p. Norton. 650 p. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 1996. Maddison, A 1995. Monitoring the world economy: 1820 to 1992. The knowledge-based economy. Paris: 57 p. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Schmidheiny, S. 1992. Changing course: a global business perspective 255 p. on development and the environment. Cambridge: MIT Press. Malone, T. F. 1994. Sustainable human development: a paradigm 374p. for the 21 st century. A White Paper presented at the annual Wilson, E. 0.1998. Consilience: the unity of knowledge. New York: meeting ofthe National Association of State University and Land Knopf. 332 p. Grant Colleges; Chicago, IL. Washington, DC. 37 p. World Bank. 1998. Knowledge for development. World Development Malone, T. F. 1995. Reflections on the human prospect. In: Socolow, Report 1998/1999. Washington, DC. E. H., ed. Annual review of energy and the environment. Palo Alto: Annual Reviews. (20): 1-29.

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