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Key Population Trends in the Bristol Local Authority Area

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Key Population Trends in the Bristol Local Authority Area The Population of Bristol - September 2020 Key population trends in the Bristol local authority area • Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population of Bristol stabilised in the 1990s, followed by a period of unprecedented population growth through the 2000s, particularly in central areas of Bristol. The population continued to grow up to mid-2018 but in the 12 months to mid-2019 the population remained unchanged - this is in-line with the UK population which grew at its slowest rate for 15 years. • The population of Bristol has become increasingly diverse and some local communities have changed significantly. There are now at least 45 religions, at least 187 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol. • In the 10 years since 2009 the total population of Bristol local authority is estimated to have increased by 44,400 people an increase of 10.6%, this compares to an England and Wales increase of 7.6% over the same decade. The growth in population includes a large increase in students living in Bristol during term time. • The large increase in the population of Bristol since 2002 can be attributed to a number of factors including a significant increase in births, a decrease deaths and an increase in net-international migration. Births are now the main driver of population change in Bristol, with net migration resulting in a loss of population. • Nationally, EU net migration has fallen since the EU Referendum in 2016, although more EU citizens still arrive long-term than leave. The change has mostly been driven by a decrease in EU citizens coming to the UK to work, an increase in the number of EU citizens leaving the UK, together with an increase in the number of non-EU citizens coming to the UK for work and study. • In 2018/19 there were 56,000 students in total registered at the two main Bristol universities. Over the last 5 years (2013/14-2018/19) there has been an increase in university student numbers of 8,300 (18%). The majority of this growth can be accounted for by an increase in full time students studying at the University of Bristol. • If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 69,300 people over the 25 year period (2018-2043) to reach a total population of 532,700 by 2043. This is a projected increase of 15% which is higher than the projection for England of 10% and the highest percentage increase of English Core Cities. • By mid-2031 Bristol local authority is projected to have a population of more than half a million usual residents. 1 Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Current population .......................................................................................................................... 4 Mid-2019 Population Estimates ...................................................................................................... 4 Population by age ............................................................................................................................ 5 Population by ward ......................................................................................................................... 7 3. Recent population trends ................................................................................................................ 8 Bristol trends ................................................................................................................................... 8 Population trends by age ................................................................................................................ 9 Components of population change ............................................................................................... 11 Small area population trends ........................................................................................................ 16 4. Population projections .................................................................................................................. 19 Population projections .................................................................................................................. 19 Population projections by age....................................................................................................... 20 Projected components of population change ............................................................................... 21 Household projections .................................................................................................................. 23 5. Population characteristics ............................................................................................................. 24 A changing population profile ....................................................................................................... 24 Ethnic group .................................................................................................................................. 24 Country of birth ............................................................................................................................. 28 Migrants ........................................................................................................................................ 29 Religion .......................................................................................................................................... 31 Language ....................................................................................................................................... 32 Students ........................................................................................................................................ 33 2011 Census topics ........................................................................................................................ 33 6. Other sources of population statistics .......................................................................................... 35 National Insurance Number Registrations (NINos) ....................................................................... 35 University Students ....................................................................................................................... 38 7. Population change and policy ....................................................................................................... 40 8. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 42 Useful links ............................................................................................................................................ 43 Contacts ................................................................................................................................................ 43 2 1. Introduction 1.1 The population of Bristol is estimated to be 463,400 people1. Bristol is the largest city in the South West and one of the ten ‘Core Cities’ in Great Britain. Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population stabilised in the 1990s and increased substantially during the 2000s. If recent trends continue, Bristol’s population will increase to over half a million usual residents by mid-2031. 1.2 The 2011 Census shows that over the last decade Bristol has become increasingly diverse. The proportion of the population who are not ‘White British’ has increased from 12% to 22% of the total population. The proportion of people living in Bristol who were not born in the UK has increased from 8% to 15% of the total population. In Bristol, there are now at least 45 religions, at least 187 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol. 1.3 Estimating and projecting the population of Bristol and areas within Bristol is important as it underpins local government finance, strategic planning and the provision of local facilities and services. The particular requirements and characteristics of different ethnic and cultural groups also need to be identified. 1.4 This report aims to build a picture of the population of Bristol now and in the future. The report brings together statistics on the current estimated population of Bristol, recent trends in population, future projections and looks at the key characteristics of the people living in Bristol. Bristol data in the report refers to the Bristol local authority area unless otherwise stated. 1 ONS 2019 Mid-Year Population Estimate 3 2. Current population Mid-2019 Population Estimates 2.1 The mid-2019 population of Bristol local authority is estimated to be 463,400. Mid- 2019 Population Estimates for local authorities were published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 24 June 2020. 2.2 Within England and Wales Bristol is the 8th largest city and the 11th largest local authority. Bristol local authority accounts for 70% of the total population of the built-up area of the city, which is often referred to as ‘Greater Bristol’, or the ‘Bristol Urban Area’. The population of the Bristol Urban Area is estimated to be 668,400 (mid-2018). Figure 1. Mid-2019 Population pyramid Source: ONS 2019 Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. 80 - 84 70 - 74 Males Females 60 - 64 50 - 54 40 - 44 Age group 30 - 34 20 - 24 10 - 14 0 - 4 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 % of the population
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