The Position, Role and Development Prospects of Nuclear Energy in China Energy System

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CHINA NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REPORT

THE POSITION,ROLE AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN CHINA ENERGY SYSTEM

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'D China Nuclear Information Centre Atomic Energy Press . 1965 #X@#A. ZHENG Yuhuij Senior engineer, director of Chi na Institute of Nuclear Industry Economics. Graduated from Department of Engineering Chemistry ,Tsinghua University in 1965»major ing in nuclear chemical engineering.

1953 XgiWaSE&SitXg^jk. YAN Jimin; Professor, director of Economic Sys tem and Management Division, China Institure of Nuclear Industry Economics. Graduated from De partment of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua Uni versity in 1963, majoring in nuclear reactor engi neering. CNIC-01124 CINIE-0007

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1 The Position, Role and Development Prospects of Nuclear Energy in China Energy System

ZHENG Yuhui YAN Jimin

(China Institute of Nuclear Industry Economics, Beijing)

ABSTRACT

The fundamental features of the present China's energy system are discussed and analyzed, and points out that since the founding of the People's Republic of China, although the energy construction, including the development and use of nu clear energy, has achieved great success, the average energy resource per capita is still low. The following major issues,such as the transportation pressure raised from the energy structure of taking coal as the main, the increasing seriousness of envi ronmental pollution, large amount of Greenhouse gases emission and low " energy efficiency" , etc. , have constrained the sustainable development of national economy and society. In accordance with the position of nuclear energy in the strategy of the energy development in south-east coastal areas of China, and the analysis of " value criteria" and " decision goal" system for the development and use of nuclear energy, it is described that the development of nuclear energy is an important way and the optimum selection to optimize China's energy system. In accordance with the fun damental policy and technical line, and the technical ability and foundation condi tions, the strategic target, scale and overall arrangement for the development of China's nuclear power are proposed and the bright future for the development of China's nuclear power industry is comprehensively discussed and analyzed.

2 1 GENERAL SITUATION AND FEATURES OF CHINA ENERGY SYSTEM

1.1 General Situation of China Energy System Energy is an important material condition for promoting the development of human society and economy in the world sphere. In China* energy is also an im portant material assurance for achieving the strategic objective of social progress and economic development. Energy industry * acted as the basic industry of nation al economy * directly relates to the development speed of national economy and the rise of the people’s living standards. To well coordinate the development among en ergy , economy and environment is an important prerequisite for achieving modern ization goal in China. Since the founding of new China, China energy industry has rapidly devel oped , especially since the reform and opening to the outside world, adhering to the principle of “Laying equal stress on both development and thrift”, the development of the energy industry has energetically supported the growth of national economy. The continuous and steady growth of energy production: In 1994 the total output of coal in China was 1. 242 Gt, ranked first in the world, the output ac counted for about 25% of the total world output; The generated electricity was 928.1 TW • h, and has ranked second in the world; The output of petroleum was 0. 146 Gt, and has ranked fifth in the world; The output of natural gas was 17. 56 Gm3, and has ranked nineteenth in the world. The elastic coefficient of energy consumption in China (the average value was larger than 1. 50 in 30 years before 1980, and was reduced to about 0. 60 in 15 years after 1980) shows that the relative low energy growth has supported the high-speed growth of national economy. This is a unique in the developing coun tries where the economy grows at high speed. After the construction of energy industry for more than 40 years, it has basi cally formed an energy production and consumption system which takes the coal as the main, and is supplemented with other diversified energy. The generated elec tricity in 1995 was 1000 TW • h, the yearly average growth was about 10%; the installed capacity reached 0. 21 TW, the yearly average growth was about 9%. China’s self-designed and self-constructed 300 MWe Qinshan NPP was connected to the electric grid and generated electricity in December 1991, and put into 3 commercial operation in April 1994; 2 X 900 MWe Guangdong Daya Bay NPP were respectively put into commercial operation in February and May 1994. From then on, it ended the history of having no nuclear power in the mainland of China. At present and in a long period of the future, the energy industry can basically meet the demands for the development of national economy, but at the same time it also exists some problems and difficulties, for example; while carrying out the de velopment and use of energy and industrial development , it goes along with the se rious contamination and destruction of environment and ecology. The development of electric power industry is lack of reserve strength, there is no effective measures to adjust the internal structure and the construction of electric grid is lag behind; the energy structure, taking coal as the main, is hard to improve and is not easy to thoroughly relax the tense condition of energy transport capacity in a short period of time. 1. 2 The Features and Main Issues of China Energy System 1. 2.1 The Energy Resource Per Capita Is Low Although China has abundant various kinds of energy resources, the energy resource per capita is low due to a very large population. The area distribution of energy resources is very uneven and the exploration extent is comparative low. The usable reserve only covers about one-third of the total proven reserve of coal resource within the depth of 1500 m in the whole country. Under the existing technology and economic condition, the exploitable reserve is 114. 5 Gt,and the per capita value is only one half of the world average level. Within the proven reserves , two-third of them are concentrated in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, ac counted for 26. 2%, 22. 4% and 16. 6% respectively. The total reserve of petroleum in China is 94 Gt, and the total resource of nat ural gas is 38 Tm3. The final exploitable reserve of petroleum is about 12—15 Gt, the per capita is only about 10 t, covers about one-fourth of the world average val ue. By the end of 1994, the proven exploitable reserve of petroleum was 3. 3 Gt, the per capita was only 2. 75 t, only accounted for 11% of the world average val ue. The economically exploitable reserve of natural gas was about 7^13 Tm3, but two-third of the total resources was distributed in the middle-west area. See Table 1 and Table 2. The per capita reserve is relative low, especially the low resource of petroleum has become an important constraint factor for the continuous development of soci ety and economy in China.

4 Table 1 China's Total Energy Production and its Shares, 1980— 1995

Item 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total Primary Energy 636. 35 855. 46 1039. 22 1048. 44 1072. 56 1112. 63 1187. 29 1214. 97 Producdon/Mtce Coal Production/Mt 620. 0 872.0 1079. 9 1087. 4 1116.4 1149. 7 1239. 9 1298. 0 Oil Production/Mt 106.0 124.9 138.3 141.0 142.1 145.2 146.1 149.0 Natural Gas/Gm1 14. 30 12. 90 15. 30 15.49 15.79 16. 95 17. 56 17. 40 Electricity Generation /TW • h 300. 6 410.7 621.3 677.6 753.9 839. 5 928.1 1000. 0 Hydropower 58.2 92.4 126.4 125.1 132.4 151.8 182.2 ... Nuclear Power — — — — — 2. 5 13.1 13.4 Shares/% Coal 69.4 72.8 74.2 74.2 74.3 73.8 74.6 76.3 Oil 23.8 20.9 19.0 19.1 18.9 18. 6 17. 6 17.5 Natural Gas 3. 0 2. 0 2.0 2. 0 2.0 2. 0 2. 0 1. 9 Hydropower 3.8 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.8 5. 6 5. 8 ...

Table 2 The Proven Recoverable Reserves of World Fossil Fuels by the End of 1994

Coal/Gt Oil/Gt Natural Gas/Tm*

World 1043. 86 World 173.7 World 14.10

1. Former USSR 241. 00 Saudi Arabia 35.7 1. Former USSR 5. 60 2. United States 240. 56 2. Irag 13.4 2. Iran 2.10 3. China 114. 50 3. Kuwait 13.3 3. Qatar 0. 71 4. Australia 90. 94 7. Former USSR 7.8 4. U.A.E 0. 53

5. Germany 80. 07 10. China 3. 3 11. China 0.17

1. 2. 2 The Energy Structure Taking Coal as the Main In the development of China energy resources, the coal resource has remark able superiority. At present, about 70% of the total primary energy produced and consumed is the coal. The proportion will not be greatly changed for a long period of time in future. See Table 3 and Table 4, Fig. 1 and Fig. 2. This has very clear difference with the world energy structure which is listed in Table 5. The increas ing large consumption of coal not only increases the tensed transport capacity, but also puts the pressure to the environment protection bigger and bigger. The two key issues, the energy transport capacity and environment protection have become an important factor to constrain the development of China coal industry and further to affect the sustainable development of national economy and society.

5 Table 3 Comparison of Coal Resources per Capita Unit: kt per capita

Country Coal resources per Capita Coal Reserves * per Capita

China 1.64 0.11 Former USSR 19. 90 0. 48 United States 12.42 0. 96 Eastern European 1.55 0. 36 * Reserves here are defined as the recoverable from known deposits under existing economic and operating conditions.

Table 4 China s Total Primary Energy Consumption and its Shares, 1980 ~ 1994 Item 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total Primary Energy 602. 75 766. 82 Consumption /Mtce 987. 03 1037. 83 1091. 70 1159. 93 1227.37 Shares of Primary Energy Consumption / % Coal 72.2 75.8 76.2 76.0 75.7 74. 6 75.0 Oil 20. 7 17.1 16.6 17.1 17. 5 18.2 17.4 Natural Gas 3. 1 2.1 2.1 2. 0 1. 9 1. 9 1. 9 Hydropower 4. 0 4. 9 5.1 4.8 4. 9 5. 3 5. 3

■ Nuclear Power

□ Hydropower

□Natural Gas

■ Oil Production

0 Coal Production

1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Year

Fig. 1 China's Total Energy Production, 1980~1995

6 Table 5 Structure of World Energy and Its Change: 1950 —1993 Item 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1993

Total Energy 1750 2890 4850 6370 8030 7804 Supply/Mtoe Coal 1009. 8 1329. 4 1479. 3 1802. 7 2192. 2 2146.1 Oil 542. 5 1092. 4 2361.5 3095. 8 3099. 6 3121. 6 Natural Gas 169.8 410.4 902.1 1267.6 1734. 5 1787.1 Hydropower 28 57.8 101.9 146.5 538. 0 195.1 Nuclear Power 0 0 4.9 57.3 465. 7 554.1 Shares, % Coal 57. 7 46 30.5 28. 3 27.3 27.5 Oil 31 37. 8 48.7 48.6 38. 6 40 Natural Gas 9. 7 14. 2 18.6 19.9 21. 6 22. 9 Hydropower 1. 6 2 2.1 2. 3 6. 7 2. 5 Nuclear Power 0 0 0.1 0.9 5. 8 7.1

□Hydropower

□ Natural Gas

■ Oil

□ Coal

ggrna ■ v.mmt ■ m—i—kuasa—»—-t&ism 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Year

Fig. 2 Shares of China's Energy Production, 1980 —1995

(1) Causing the Pressure of Communication and Transportations Coal is the main energy in China which accounted for 74. 6% of the total

7 output of the primary energy in 1994. The area distribution of coal in China is very uneven. 79. 8% of the existing proven coal reserve is concentrated in areas of North China and north-east China of which 65. 2% is in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. It forms a general pattern of coal transportation, “transporting coal from the north to the south, and from the west to the east". See Table 6 about the coal production rate and consumption rate and its proportion in all areas. Table 6 Coal Production, Consumption and Shares by China's Regions in 1990

Production Consumption Regions Mt % Mt % National 1079. 28 100. 00 1055. 26 100. 00 North 380. 78 35. 28 222. 95 21.13 Northeast 104-47 17. 09 201.78 19.12 East 146. 97 13. 62 257. 08 24. 36 South-Central 152.45 14.13 180.19 17. 08 Southwest 127. 07 11.77 115.49 10. 94 Northwest 87. 54 8.11 77.77 7. 37 In the cailway cargo transportation of the whole country, the proportion of vol ume of coal transported is increasing and there is a tendency to reach the limit, it was 36.4% in 1975, 43% in 1990, 43.7% in 1993 and 44.3% in 1994. See Table 7. Table 7 Railway Freight Traffic of Energy Cargoes and Shares of Coal in China

1993 1994 Item Traffic Turnover Average distance Traffic Turnover Average distance 104t Gt • m km 104 Gt • m km Total 156600 1192341 761 157155 1260680 802 Coal 65336 358864 549 65943 358864 544 Coke 3093 24654 797 3647 29184 800 Oil 7044 49895 708 6912 52062 753 Shares of Coal 43.7 44.3 % Coal longest distance 3100 2600 km (2) Serious Situation of Energy Environment Everybody knows that the mankind develops and uses energy, at the same time it causes increasingly serious destruction of environment on which we ourself rely for existence. The environment impact arising from energy production and use mode, is a heat topic concerned by the whole world. At present, there are three global atmospheric environment issues that are commonly concerned by the interna tional community. 8 The first is the “greenhouse effect” arising from C02, methane, etc. , resulted in global warm climate; The second is the acid rain (acid fallout), caused by acid substances, such as S02» nitrogen, oxygen compound, etc. ; The third is the destruction of ozone layer caused by the chloroflurocarbons compound. Among them except the chloroflurocarbons, other two are practically related to the use of energy. China is a developing country whose industrialization has been not yet com pleted. At present the consumption level of energy per capita is still very low. The development of energy industry is still unable to catch up with the energy demands for the development of national economy and the rise of people’s living standards. The development and use of energy in China should be greatly increased. From general point of view at present China faces a serious situation for spreading of en vironment contamination and deterioration of environment. • The Contamination of Atmospheric Environment In 1994, the average day value per year of the total suspended particle in the urban atmosphere of China is 89^849 /ig/m3, while the standard of WHO is 60 /ig/m3. Our minimum value also exceeds the international standard. It is 407 pg * m-3 in north cities and is 250 /rg/m3 in south cities. Because south cities have no heating. Besides , from the view point of soot and dust fall, according to the statis tics of 84 big and medium cities of the whole country, the average value per year is 3. 2—64. 61 t/ (month • km 2) , and the average value is 10. 5 t/ (month • km 2) in the north city. In practice, all these data have exceeded the limits stipulated by China. During winter season, the total suspended particle in all north cities has ex ceeded the warning value and it continuously tends to deteriorate. See Table 8. This is directly caused by the energy structure which takes the coal as the main. • Acid Fallout The discharge of S02 is mainly caused by burning coal. Generally * the sulphur content rate of coal in China is high. Some of them are as high as 6%^7%. Such kind of high sulphur content coal is not allowed to exploit in foreign countries, but China is still exploiting and is still directly burning. According to the statistics of 88 cities, the average day value per year for the discharge of S02 is 2~472 /ig/m3, it is 89 fig/m3 in north city and 83 jug/m3 in south city, while the national second class standard is 60 fig/m3. At present over one half of cities of the whole country 9 have exceeded the national second class standard. Table 8 Forecasting of Air Pollution Discharges and Emissions in China By 2020

Year 2000 2010 2020

Scenarios High Medium Low High Medium Low High Medium Low

Discharges/104t 2750 2675 2450 3750 3550 3300 4900 4525 4200

SO, Emissions/104t 2308 2098 1889 3045 2767 2490 2430 3178 2940

Removed Share/ % 15 25 30

Discharges/104t 13423 12203 10983 18783 17058 15352 25397 23088 20780

Soot Emissions/104t 2212 2011 1809 2426 2205 1894 2280 2073 1086

Removed Share/ % 69 79 86

Discharges/ 104t 3523 3203 3083 5070 4609 4148 6936 6306 5676

Dust Emissions/l04t 1470 1337 1203 1300 1183 1064 996 905 815

Removed Share/ % 53 72 86 Along with the increase of coal consumption, the discharge of S02 is continu ously increasing at a speed of yearly average of 3%—4%, thus the acid rain in Chi na becomes increasingly serious. The area of China's territory of which the rainfall pH value is lower than 5. 6» was expanded from 1. 75 million square kilometers in 1985 to 2. 80 million square kilometers in 1993. It accounted for 29% of the whole area of China. The heavy acid rain area has expanded from some areas of south west and South China during the “Seventh Five-Year Plan" to North China and East China. In most area of the south of Yantze River , the yearly average rainfall pH value has been lower than 4. 5 and is expanding to the north of Yangtze River. Acid rain has caused direct or indirect economic losses. According to the statistics from 71 cities of the whole country, it is nearly one half of cities where the rainfall pH value is lower than 5. 6 and 81. 6% of cities has had the record of acid rain. That is in some areas the acid rain frequency exceeded 80%. (3) “Greenhouse" Gas——the Discharge of C02 C02 is a kind of “greenhouse" gas which has the highest concentration in at mosphere. At present, the content (volume fraction) of C02 in atmosphere has reached 350X10-6 which has made a great contribution to “greenhouse effect” (see Table 9). But the man-induced discharge of C02 to atmosphere is one of the main sources, i. e. the development and use of energy. In more than one hundred years since industrialization, the concentration of C02 in atmosphere has increased 25% ~30%, the main reason is the burning of fossil fuel and the destruction of forest. In recent ten years the discharge of carbon in the whole world was speedily 10 increased. From 1950 to 1973 the discharge of carbon to the world increased about 4. 5%. In ten years (from 1973 to 1983) the yearly average growth was 1. 0%, hereafter its yearly average growth was 2. 8%. In 1988 it increased 3. 7% which was the maximum rising year in recent ten years. At present, discharged C02 in the atmosphere is mainly caused by buring the mineral fuel, it accounted for about 70% of the total discharge. Therefore the development and use of fossil fuel has become the chief reason to increase the concentration of C02 in atmosphere and it is also the important reason to cause the "greenhouse effect”. Table 9 Present Densities and Growth Rates of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere

Name Present Content/10 ' Estimated Annual Growth Rate/% CO, 350 0.4 Oj in stratosphere 0.1—10 —0. 5 O, in troposphere 0. 02—0.1 0—0. 7 CHt 1.7 1—2 CO 0.12 0. 2 N,0 0. 3 0. 2 CFCn 0. 23X10"’ 5.0 CFCn 0.4X10"* 5.0 The awareness of world climate becoming warm is the common understanding of the international society. For this reason, the man-induced discharge of various kinds of greenhouse gas including C02 should be controlled and limited , this is the key measure to protect the world climate. At present, the United States is the country which discharges the largest quantity of C02, accounted for 21. 8% of the total C02 discharge of the world, the second is the former Soviet Union, accounted for 15. 8% of the total amount, and China is 11. 2% at the third place in the world. In June 1992, the United Nations Environment and Development Conference held in Rio de Janeiro of Brazil passed the "Climate Change Framework Convention”. This convention provides that the concentration of greenhouse gas in atmosphere should be stabilized at the level of protecting the climate system from dangerous interference induced by mankind. A- long with the speed-up of industrialization process and the increase of total energy consumption, C02 discharge in China will be increased year by year. It is predicted that it will be 4. 038 Gt in 2000, about 6 Gt (equivalent carbon 1. 64 Gt) in 2020. See Table 10. Therefores Chinese government should also take the appropriate mea sures in the development of energy industry. We will do our best to raise the utiliza tion efficiency and to develop the use of new energy in order to reduce the C02 dis charge. China will make a contribution to the environment issue of the whole 11 world. Table 10 Forecasting of C02 Emission in China by 2020

Year 2000 2010 2020

Emission/Mt 4038 5003 6001

Annual Growth Rate/% 2.5 2.2 1.8 1. 2. 3 Energy Consumption Per Capita Is Low The index of energy consumption level per capita not only directly relates to the people’s life quality, but also is an important sign of the developed standard of a country. The total energy consumption and energy consumption per capita of some countries and in the whole world in 1992 is listed in Table 11. From the Table, we can see that the total energy consumption of China in 1992 only accounted for 9. 97% of total consumption of the world, the energy consumption per capita was only 932 kg coal equivalent that was less than one half of the world energy con sumption per capita of 1993 kg coal equivalent. The energy consumption per capita of China not only is far lower than the developed country, but also is far lower than many developing countries and the energy consumption per capita level of the world. Table 11 Consumption of World Commercial Energy (1992) Unit: 104 tee Per Capita Country or Area Total Solids Liquids Gas Electricity kg World 1094774 321262 398214 266433 108864 1993

China 109170 82642 19105 2074 5349 932

United States 273963 66545 105123 73886 28409 10737

Japan 58943 11840 29983 7504 9616 4735

France® 31085 2650 11314 4318 12803 5434

Canada 30007 3609 10604 9221 6574 10965

Australia 12979 5979 4724 2271 188 7376

Russian Fed. 109624 22618 28083 52554 6368 7357

India 30780 20562 7536 1555 1127 350

Singapore 2355 3 2352 ... ••• 8503

Korea, Rep. 14078 3410 7854 654 2160 3188

Mexico 16674 500 11499 3641 1034 1891

Argentina 6601 111 2604 3350 535 1994

Note* ©Including Monaco. 12 The total energy consumption for living use classified by types in 1980* 1985 > 1990, 1992 and 1994 is listed in Table 12. From the data in the Table, it reflects the following three clear features: The first is that the total growth of consumption was not so quick. During the past 14 years (1980 ^ 1994) it only increased 60. 84%, the yearly average increase rate was only 3. 45% * The second is that the proportion of coal consumption wasn't lower than 60%; The third is that in the consumption structure the high quality energy occupied a low proportion. See Fig. 3. Table 12 Average Annual Personal or Private Energy Consumption by Types in China

Item 1980 1985 1990 1992 1994 Total/104tce 9583 13318 15800 15635 15413 Coal/104t 11574 15624 16700 14781 13047 Kerosene/104t 99 122 105 87 69 Liquified Petroleum Gas/l04t 43 91 159 239 385 Natural Gas/108 m3 2 4 19 22 20 Gas/10*m 3 14 13 29 52 76 Thermo Power/I010kj 1092 5651 8972 11410 14261 Electricity/TW • h 10. 5 22.3 48.1 64.0 86. 7

Electricity Kerosene 8. 84% 0.85% Thermo Power

Fig. 3 Personal or Private Energy Consumption by Types in China, 1994

13 The other issue is that there is a great difference between urban and rural ar eas in the energy consumption for living use. By the end of 1991, the total popula tion in China was 1158. 23 million of which the total population of cities and towns was 305. 43 million, accounted for 26. 37%; the total population of rural area was 852. 80 million, accounted for 73. 63%. However, from the analysis on the pos session of energy for living consumption, about one-fourth of population of cities and towns possessed 56. 3% of the energy comsumption for living use, while near ly three-fourth of population of rural area only consumed 43. 7 % of energy for liv ing use. The vast rural area was seriously short of energy. According to the most conservative estimation, the shortage was at least 20% to 30%. The most impor tant task of the agriculture is to solve the problem of feeding the whole population in China which accounted for 22% of the whole world population, but the cultivat ed land is less than 7 % of the whole world cultivated land. Thus we should abso lutely cast off the traditional methods of cultivation to realize the modernization of agriculture production. This will be inevitable to greatly increase the energy con sumption in agriculture production, and demands of energy will be steeply in creased. 1. 2. 4 “Energy Efficiency ” Is Low Energy efficiency and saving energy are the top keys to achieve a sustainable development goal of China. The analysis shows that at present the total efficiency of energy system in China is very low. According to the definition of specifications of the United Nations European Economic Committee and the calculation, in 1992 the total efficiency of energy system of China was only 9 %, less than one half of the developed country. This means that over 90% of recoverable reserves of energy from exploitation, processing, conversion, transportation, distribution to final use, were lost and wasted. Among them, the exploitation efficiency was 32% , the efficiency of the intermediate link (processing, conversion, store and transporta tion) was 70%, the efficiency of final use was 41 %. The product of link efficiency and the efficiency of final use in China is susaily called “energy efficiency”, which is 29%. It is ten percentage point lower than the international advanced level, and the efficiency of final use is lower than over ten percentage point. 1. 2. 5 The Energy Consumption of Unit Output Value Is High In 1980 —1990 the yearly average growth of gross national product (GNP) was 8. 9% and the yearly average growth of energy consumption was 5. 0%. The energy consumption for each 100 milliom yuan of GNP was reduced from 133600 t 14 coal equivalent in 1980 to 92600 t coal equivalent in 1990, the yearly average re duction was 3. 73%, it saved or used less energy totalled 285 Mt coal equivalent. In 1980 ~ 1990, yearly average growth of industry output value was 10.68%, yearly average growth of industry energy consumption was 4. 58%. The energy consumption for each 0.1 giga yuan of industry output value was reduced from 78400 t coal equivalent in 1980 to 43000 t coal equivalent in 1990, yearly average reduction was 6.19%. The total quantity of saving energy was 420 Mt coal equiv alent. It extended a certain progress in reducing the energy consumption of unit output value. This notwithstanding, at present the energy consumption of unit output value of China and unit energy consumption of main products are higher than the inter national advanced standard. See Table 13. As viewed from the unit energy con sumption of main energy-consumption products, the main energy-consumption products of the trades of metallurgy and building materials, the unit consumption is higher than industrial developed countries by 30% to 80%, and the weighted aver age value is higher than 40%. Table 13 Comparison of Energy Intensities of Major Industrial Products in 1990

Mining (kW • h/t) 44.0 55. 5 -7.9 Coal-Power Plant (geeAW • h) 427 325 4-31. 4 Steel (kgee/t) 1034 629 4-64.4 Crude Copper (kgee/t) 1705 1359 4-25.5 Aluminium (kW • h/t) 14916 13956 4-15.1 Refinery (kgceAW • h) 21.91 19. 46 4-12. 6 Ammonia (kgee/t) 1290 930 4-38.7 (Natural Gas, Large Scale) Cement (kgee/t) 201.0 113.2 4-77.6 Cotton Yarn (kW • h/t) 2129 3458 -61.6 Chemical Fibers (kW • h/t) 2280 1450 4-57.2 2 PREDICTION OF ENERGY DEMANDS IN CHINA

2.1 Prediction of Energy Demands in The Near Future (2010) The speed-up development of economy, it is inevitable to request the energy industry for providing the relevant assurance. At presents, some government de partments , institutes and experts separately carry out the prediction on the relation between the speed-up development of national economy and the relevant energy de mands , but the results are different. This is mainly because it is different to each 15 other on the selection of elastic coefficient of energy production and the determina tion of energy saving rate. This report is on the basis of data predicted by the State Statistical Bureau, the former Ministry of Energy, the Energy Research Institute of the State Planning Commission and China Energy Research Society, and was calculated according to the yearly average growth of 8% to 9% of GNP; 0. 4—0. 5 of energy demand elastic coefficient, 0. 8~1. 0 of elastic coefficient of electric pow er consumption. It reached a conclusion for the prediction of China's energy de mands in 2010. See Table 14 and Fig. 4. From the Table and the Figure, we can see that by 2010 the total energy demands will be 2. 558 Gt coal equivalent (high plan) and 1. 969 Gt coal equivalent (energy saving plan), which are respectively 2.11- and 1. 62-fold of the total actual demands in 1995. In 15 years (1995 ^ 2010), it will respectively increase at an average rate of 5.10% and 3. 27% a year.

1990 1995 2000 2010 2010 (Actual) (Actual) (Planning) High Scenario Energy Saving Scenario

Year

Fig. 4 Forecasting of China's Medium & short Term (2010) Energy Demand

16 Table 14 Forecasting of China's Medium and Short term (2010) Energy Demands

Petroleum Natural Gas Hydropower Nuclear Year Total/Gtce Coal/Gt Gt Gm* TW • h TW • h

1990 (Actual) 0. 987 1.080 0.138 15.3 126.4 —

1995 (Actual) 1.215 1.298 0.149 17.4 192 12.8

2000 (Planning) 1.400 1.400 0.155 25. 0 240.0 30.0 High 2. 585 2. 503 0. 377 115.4 562. 9 74.3 Scenario 2010 Energy Saving 1. 969 1.927 0.290 88.8 433.2 56. 5 Scenario

Therefrom, we can see that by 2010 the development of nuclear power in Chi na will be considerable. It is predicted that the generated electricity will be 60 TW • h. By the end of 1995, the accumulated generated electricity of nuclear power of the whole country was 28. 99 TW • h. After 2000, it is planned that yearly aver age of nuclear generated electricity will be 30 TW • h. It is predicted that by 2010 yearly average of nuclear generated electricity will be 74. 3 TW • h which will be respectively 1. 03- and 2. 56-fold of the accumulated generated electricity before 1995. It can be seen that after 2000, China nuclear power undertaking will be de veloped rapidly. 2. 2 Prediction of Energy Demands at a Specified Future Date (2050) Due to a large population of China, for basically accomplishing the moderniza tion in the middle of the 21st century and for attaining to the goal for the level of medium developed country in GNP per capita, the energy demands of China in fu ture will be tremendous. In 2050 the GNP per capita of China will be 4000 US dol lars. In that time after considering the factors of the scientific and technological progress, energy saving effect from industry structure and the population growth, etc. , it is predicted that the total energy demands will be 4. 6 Gt coal equivalent which will be 3. 41-fold of the total planned quantity of 2000, i. e. during 50 years (2000^2050) the energy demands will be increased at an average rate of 2. 48% a year; then during 20 years (2000^2020) the energy demands will be increased at an average rate of 3. 53% a year. See Table 15 and Fig. 5.

17 Table 15 Forecasting of China's Long and Medium Term (2050) Energy demands

1995 2000 2020 2050 Item (Actual) (Planning) (Forecasting) (Forecasting) Population/10* 1.21 1.25 1. 38 1.50 Total Energy demand/Gtce 1.215 1.40 2. 70 4. 60 Energy Consumption per capita/tee 1.003 1.12 1.96 3. 07 Average Saving Ratio (%/Year) 3. 6 3. 3 1.0 1.0

3------:------—------5 Energy

1995 2000 2020 2050 (Actual) (Planning) (Forecasting) (Forecasting)

Year

Fig. 5 Forecasting of China's Long Term (2050) Energy Demands

3 THE POSITION AND ROLE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN CHINA ENERGY SYSTEM

3.1 The Development and Use of Nuclear Energy is an Important Sign for the Development Level of Science and Technology The development and use of nuclear energy is an important sign of scientific and technological development in the 20th century, is a successful model of high scientific and technological industrialization and also is an important sign for the

18 development of the scientific and technological level of a country. In 1954 the first demonstration nuclear power station was put into operation in former USSR. By the end of 1994, it had only a course of 40 yerars, 432 nuclear power units had been put into operation in 30 countries and regions, the total installed capacity was 0. 36 TW, and the generated electricity exceeded 2000 TW • h which accounted for 17% of the total generated electricity of the world. There are 48 units under construction, the total installed capacity is 45000 MWe. Among 30 countries and regions, there are 14 countries and regions whose nuclear generated electricity ex ceed 80 % of their total generated electricity. In the electric power structure of Eu ropean countries, such as Lithuanian, France, Belgium, Sweden , etc. , the shares of nuclear power in above countries are, respectively, 79%, 75. 3%, 55. 8% and 51.1%. The shares of nuclear power in Japan and the Republic of Korea which are ad jacent to China, accounted for 30. 7% and 35. 5% respectively and it is 31. 7% in Taiwan Province of China. Nuclear power in these countries and regions has be come the important electric power products, its matched nuclear fuel industry has formed the important high-technology in some countries. According to the total consumption of world energy in 1992 announced by the World Energy Organiza tion , if the nuclear power is converted into 7. 2%, it will exceed the hydropower by 2-fold. This shows that nuclear power, as the high-technology industry , makes an important contribution to economic development in many countries. Taking into consideration of the multielement of energy source structure, and also due to the increasing concern to the environment issue, many countries still place stress on maintaining the selection of nuclear power and draw up the plan for continuously developing nuclear power. China also does in this way. China is the fifth country in the world which successfully developed atomic bomb , and is the fourth country in the world which successfully developed hydrogen bomb. Nuclear submarine also becomes the important defence installation. China has achieved great achievements in the field of nuclear industry which attracted worldwide attention, and formed a perfect system of nuclear scientific and techno logical research and nuclear fuel production. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, along with the change of international situation, the civilian nuclear power industry of China has also achieved a break-through progress. On December 15, 1991, the first phase project of 300 MWe nuclear unit of Qinshan NPP, which was self-designed and self-constructed, was connected to the grid and generated 19 electricity? 2X 900 MWe nuclear power units of Daya Bay NPP were respectively put into commercial operation in February and May 1994? 300 MWe NPP project which was exported to Pakistan by China is constructing on planned schedule. Thus China becomes the seventh country in the world which independently de signed and constructed the first nuclear power plant and the eighth export country of NPP. All of these not only supplied electricity to Guangdong and Hong Kong where the economy is well developed , but also accumulated experiences and trained talents for the development of nuclear power undertaking of China. 3. 2 Developing Nuclear Energy is an Important Way to Optimize Energy Sys tem of China 3. 2.1 The Determination of the “Value Criteria” for the Development and Use of Nuclear Energy The development and use of nuclear energy is a human-engineering system. Since the first isotope production reactor of the world was constructed in 1942, it had been more than 40 years. In these 40 years, although the human developed and used nuclear energy in many ways, generally speaking , there were three modes in the vast use of nuclear fission. These three modes also represent three different development stages for the conceptual development of nuclear energy by the mankind , i. e. in the first stage the nuclear energy was simply used for detonation and was used mainly for military purpose? in the second stage the nuclear energy was used for development of economy and the supply of electric power ? in the third stage the nuclear energy was optimum use to supply nuclear power and nuclear heating. Certainly, for each stage the decision maker should use and had already used the determined value criteria in order to judge the advantages and disadvan tages , and the gain and loss. According to the basic theory and method of systems engineering, the so called “Value Criteria" refers to the scientific, qualitative and quantitative expres sion of the purpose, ideal , intention and wish of the decision maker. The purpose for determining value criteria is mainly to establish “Decision Goal". Due to limited space, here we cannot fully describe the elaboration on the val ue criteria system for the development and use of nuclear energy in China. We can only take the above second phase of “The development of economy, the supply of electric power" (the usage rate of nuclear energy can only reach 30%~33%) as the current developing goal, and take the third phase of “The optimum use of nu clear power and nuclear heating" (the usage rate of nucear energy can raise to 90 % 20 — 95%) as long-term developing goal in future. The based value criteria ares to promote the economic development, to optimize use of energy resources and to e- liminate the bad consequence in the coordination and unity of social economic and environmental benefits, making an attempt at the continuous and coordinative de velopment of economy, society and environment. 3. 2. 2 The “Decision Goal" System for The Development of Nuclear Energy According to the above mentioned value criteria for the development and use of nuclear energy, Fig. 6 shows the optimum system of “Decision Goal" for the de velopment of nuclear power and nuclear heating. From Fig. 6 we can see that under the practical condition for all systems of the present energy, economy, environment and society of China, the advantages of the development and use of nuclear energy are: (1) To improve the energy structure; (2) To avoid the environment contamination; (3) To facilitate the progress of science and technology ? (4) To relax the burden of transportation; (5) To mitigate the greenhouse effect; (6) To raise the living quality? and according to these advantages , we established the value criteria system, then the “decision goal"for the development of nuclear power and nuclear heating in Chi na was constituted. 3. 3 The Position of Nuclear Energy in the Development Strategy of Energy of the South-East Coastal Areas of China The economic development of the coastal area in China is better than that of the middle and west areas, the GDP per capita is higher, and the energy consump tion of unit output value is lower, see Table 16, but it is lack of conventional ener gy in these areas. In 1994 the east area accounted for 46% of the energy consump tion of the whole country, while in east area the produced energy only accounted for 28% of the total energy production of the whole country. Almost one half of the energy was allocated into that area from other parts of the country, thus, it caused the heavy burden of communication and transportations. Besides , as it was mentioned above that the coal-fired power station and burning of large amount of fossil fuel had caused a considerable contamination to the environment.

21 Developing Nuclear Power and Heat

Economic Benefits Social Benefits Environmental Benefits

Values Criteria

Promote Economy Rational Use of Energy Development Avoid Fatal Results

Nuclear Energy Development and Utilization

Optimize Energy Protect Environment Struture from Pollution

Promote Technology Alleviate Press of Development Transport

Raise Life Standards

Fig. 6 Optimal System of Decision Objectives for Developing Nuclear Energy

Table 16 China's GDP and Energy per Capita and Energy Intensity by Regions GDP per capita Energy per capita Energy/GDP Region Yuan toe toe/k Yuan 1994 2000 2015 1993 2000 2015 1993 2000 2015 North Coastal Area 3790 5710 13990 0. 9 1. 3 2. 3 0. 27 0. 22 0.16 South Coastal Area 3580 5730 16090 0. 5 0. 6 1.3 0.15 0.11 0. 08 Central 1950 2730 5810 0. 6 0. 6 1.1 0.36 0. 28 0.19 West 1650 2270 4700 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.44 0. 36 0. 28 Total 2550 3770 9020 0. 6 0. 8 1.4 0. 28 0. 22 0.15

Note: GDP is accounted by 1992 price. The development of economy in China is firstly to achieve breakthrough in east area, mainly in the south-east coastal area, but for solving the neckbottle issue 22 of power and communication which constrains the economic development of these areas and the environment and ecology issues, it is no doubt to establish the deci sion goal of giving priority to the development of nuclear power. This is the most practical and scientific selection according to the analysis of the above mentioned value criteria. Therefore, to construct a certain scale of nuclear power plant in the electric load centre far from the coal base to a certain extent can play the role of “killing thee birds with one stone”, i. e. to mitigate three contradictions of short- supply of electricity, environment contamination and the tense of communication and transportations. Thus, it can be seen that the development of nuclear power in the strategy of energy development of south-east coastal area of China has signifi cant role and meaning. As to the electricity power supply plan of Fujian Province, Table 17 lists the electric power supply plan of the province before 2010, Fig. 7 shows the electric power supply structure in this plan. This plan shows the following features • • The position of electric power in the energy system of Fujian Province be comes more and more important. From the base year of 1995 it accounted for about 40% of the total quantity of energy and will increase to more than 60% by the end of the plan period of 2010, its elastic coefficient is about 1. 08. • During the plan period, coal unit is still the main installed type, by the end of 2010 coal-power will account for 71. 24% of the total electric power. • During the plan period, the nuclear power grows out of nothing, by 2010 the nuclear power will account for about 10% of the total generated electricity of the whole province. Table 17 Planning Scenario of Fujiang Province's Electricity Supply

1995 2000 2005 2010 Annual Averi Item Shares Shares Shares Shares Growth Rat TW • h TW ' h TW • h TW • h % % % % % Total 28. 2 100. 00 50. 8 100. 00 79.7 100. 00 121.1 100. 00 11.31 Growth Rate/% 16. 98 12. 49 9. 44 8. 73 Coal Power 12.8 45.31 30.8 60. 57 52.1 65. 31 86.3 71.24 13. 66 Oil Power 0. 3 1.07 0 0. 00 0 0. 00 0 0. 00 Nuclear Power 0 0. 00 0 0.00 5.7 7.11 11.3 9. 36 Hydropower 15.0 53. 08 20.0 39. 43 22.0 27. 58 23.4 19. 34 5. 51 Again as to the change of consumption structure of end-use energy in Guang dong Province, from 1990 to 1995 the consumption structure of end-use energy in Guangdong Province had greatly changed , see Table 18. In 1991, the proportion of coal, oil gas and electricity was respectively 47. 7%, 38. 5% and 13. 8% , while 23 in 1995 they were respectively 39. 4%, 42.1 %, 18. 5%. The civilian coal con sumption rate was reduced from 3. 48 Mt to 2. 26 Mt, and it was about reduced 3. 35%. The consumption rate of oil products was increased from 0. 33 Mt to 1. 88 Mt> and it grew in about 4. 7-fold. The electric power was increased from 3. 9 GW • h to 11. 5 GW • h, the net growth was nearly 1. 95-fold. The con sumption rate of end-use oil products and the oil used for generating electricity were respectively 186% and 218. 5 % compared to 1990. The change of energy demands in Guangdong Provinces is an inexorable trend due to the high-speed economic de velopment and the fast rise of per capita income, then turning to the high-quality and -efficiency energy demands , and the increase of consumption of petroleum and electric power is the main driving froce for the fast growth of economy.

Hydropower 50. 86 %

Coal-Fired 1992 49. 14%

Hydropower Nuclear Hydropower 19. 35% Power 39. 43% 9.37%

60. 57% 2000

Fig. 7 Electric Supply Structure of Fujian Province Power Planning As viewed from the change for the development of energy demands in the south-east coastal areas of Fujian and Guangdong Provinces of China, the high- quality of energy consumption plays a considerable important role in increasing the efficiency of energy use and economic benefits, and in improving the living quality and environment quality. For these two provincess to develop and use nuclear ener gy and vigorously to expand nuclear power are no doubt the best selection to achieve the above mentioned goal.

24 Table 18 Structure Changes of Guangdong Province's Energy End-Use

Guangdong Taiwan Japan Item 1990 1995 2000 2010 1993 1993 Total 38.17 70.0 95.1 142.1 80.1 478.8 Mtce Shares/ % Coal 47.7 39.4 33.4 25.3 14.1 11.7 Petroleum 38.5 42.1 42.7 43.6 42.3 61.0 Natural Gas 2.9 3.7 2.9 5.8 Electricity 13.8 18.5 21.3 27.4 39.7 20.4 Total 100.0 100. 0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

4 PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY

4.1 The Technical Ability and Basic Conditions for the Development of China Nuclear Power On the basis of developing “two bombs and one nuclear submarine", China was successfully self-designed and self-constructed Qinshan NPP, introduced the complete set of Daya Bay NPP and a large quantity of matching works have been done in respect to technical services and fuel supply to guarantee the safe and stable operation of these two NPPs. Therefore China has preliminary mastered the tech nology of nuclear power and has had the technical ability and basic condition for de veloping nuclear power. 4.1.1 NPP Design From the 197CTs to early in the 198(Ts, completely absorbing the design expe rience of nuclear power unit of nuclear submarine and by reference to incomplete foreign information of NPP, China designed the first phase project of 300 MWe nuclear unit of Qinshan NPP. This unit reached the design performance two years ahead of scheduled time, maintained well operation record and in 1995 the load fac tor reached 84%. This proved that China successfully accomplished the indepen dent design. The design of the second phase of 2 X 600 MWe nuclear units of Qin shan project was completely started its construction in recent time, obtained a part of design information and data of French 900 MWe PWR unit, combined with the knowledge to be learned during the construction of Daya Bay NPP as well as through the construction practice of one or two introduced large-sized nuclear u- nits, China not only can design small- and medium-sized PWR NPP, but also has 25 design ability of large-sized PWR NPP. 4.1. 2 Civil Engineering Work, Installation and Item Management The civil engineering work and installation team of nuclear power in China has accumulated rich experiences in the construction of experiment reactor, production reactor, nuclear power unit and conventional power plant. In the course of con struction and commissioning of Qinshan NPP, they have one-shot success of items, such as hydraulic pressure test of main loop, impact rotation of turbine, strength test and sealing test of containment bulk , the first loading, physical start up and grid-connection and generation of electricity, etc.. These proved that the design was correct and the quality of equipment manufacture, civil engineering work and installation were reliable. Although the Daya Bay NPP introduced a com plete set of foreign equipment, yet we joined the construction and participated in the management. Through the practice of two nuclear power plants, the nuclear power construction team of China basically meets the requirement of the interna tional nuclear power specifications, standards and quality assurance to, and the technical level of construction and installation and management ability have been improved. 4.1. 3 Technical Services for the Commissioning and Operation of NPP In the course of the construction of Qinshan and Daya Bay NPPs, we paid much attention to the production preparations. The first batch of operators dis patched from each profession were trained at home and then sent to foreign coun tries for training on the simulator and for practising in NPP. They should pass the examination before going to their posts, and the system of holding license on duty was strictly performed. We also paid much attention to operation research, and the Operation Institute was specially established and we had arranged the Design and Research Institute to do the unified services of NPP. These Institutes have reached a certain level in the fields of technical support for NPP operation, in-service in spection, emulation technology and nuclear fuel management, etc. 4.1. 4 Manufacture of Nuclear Power Equipment The home-made equipment of the first phase of Qinshan poject accounted for 95% of the total quantity of sets and accounted for 70% of the total equipment in vestment. Most of them were in good operation condition. The key equipment, such as steam generator, control rod drive mechanism, reactor internals, pressuriz- er, loading and discharge machine and turbo-generator, etc. , stood up to the prac tical test for the operation of NPP, these show that the outfit ability, technology 26 level and QA program of manufacturers can provide qualified equipment and mate rials for NPP. Through the procurement of domestic equipment for the second phase of Qinshan project and the NPP exported to Pakistan , in the fields of major equipment and key technology, China has again a new breakthrough and lay foun dation for the equipment manufacture of large and medium-sized NPPs. 4.1. 5 Nuclear Fuel Industry China has abundant in uranium resource. According to the proven industrial reserve and calculation of geological theory, the guarantee level of uranium resource to the development of nuclear power may be summarized as follows % it is rich in the near future, guarantee in the mid-period and potentiality at a specified future date. During the development of nuclear military industry of China it formed a complete nuclear fuel cycle system, ranging from uranium exploration, exploitation and met allurgy, conversion and separation, element manufacture, and reprocessing of spent fuel, etc. , which laid the solid foundation to provide fuel for NPP. In recent years, through the reform of production technique of each link of nuclear fuel pro duction and introducing the advanced technology, the economy was raised. At pre sent China has had the home-made ability for the fuel element products of 300 MWe, 600 MWe and 900 MWe PWR NPP. 4.1. 6 Scientific and Technological Support of Nuclear Power For verification of the design of first phase of Qinshan project, on the basis of the original scientific research installation of the military industry , China newly built more than 20 sets of test rig, such as zero-energy assembly, hot test rig of steam-water separator, load and disharge machine, etc. For the needs of scientific research tackling key problems for the second phase of Qinshan project, China a- gain newly built national major laboratory, including the facilities of high-tempera ture high-pressure comprehensive test rig, reactor hydraulic simulation test, etc. These scientific research measures not only provided the basis for the design of the first phase and the second phase of Qinshan project, but also gave full play to the development of nuclear power technology in China. 4- !• 7 Management of Nuclear Safety Chinese government consistently puts great emphasis on nuclear safety. As a matter of experience to nuclear system reform of the developed country, in October 1984, the State Council specially established the National Nuclear Safety Adminis tration (NNSA). This special organ is responsible for establishing and issuing nu clear safety supervision and control regulations, and according to the law, it 27 independently exercises nuclear safety supervision authority. Besides , China also established three-level emergency management organizational systems, i. e. the National Nuclear Accident Emergency committee, Nuclear Accident Emergency Committee in provinces and areas where the NPPs are located and Nuclear Acci dent Emergency Headquarters of operating organization of NPP, to ensure that once under the nuclear accident emergency condition, they can control, avoid and mitigate the nuclear damage into full play. 4. 2 The Basic Principle and Technical Line for the Development of Nuclear Power in China 4.2.1 Taking Measures Suited to Local Conditions, Developing Hydropower and Thermal Power Concurrently, and Developing Nuclear Power Appropriately In March 1996 the fourth meeting of the Eighth National People’s Congress of China approved the Ninth Five-Year Plan and Prospects Goal Programme of 2010 which determined that the electric power industry should adhere to the principle of “Taking measures suited to local conditions, developing hydropower and thermal power concurrently and developing nuclear power appropriately". It performed combining military with civilian sectors for nuclear industry , and requested “vigor ously promoting the peaceful application of nuclear technology, placing emphasis on the development of nuclear power matching to construct nuclear fuel cycle system". According to the spirit of “programme", in the next fifteen years, China will vig orously develop hydropower, and will continue to develop thermal power. In the coastal provinces where the energy is undersupplying, will appropriately develop nuclear power if the condition permits. China National Nuclaer Corporation (CN- NC) according to the national requirements, will take the development of nuclear power as the main task , at the same time it develops nuclear fuel cycle industry and actively promotes the peaceful application of nuclear technology, and makes a con tribution to the construction of the socialist modernization. 4 2. 2 Taking Ourselves as the Dominant Factor, Taking Cooperation Between China and Foreign Countries For the development of nuclear power, China puts into effect of the principle of “taking ourselves as the dominant factor, taking cooperation between China and foreign countries", and insistently takes the road of the home-made equipment of nuclear power. But it needs a process to achieve the home-made equipment of nucle ar power. In the initial period due to the weak foundation of home-made equipment and lack of funds at home, the nuclear power cannot be developed by ourself as 28 yet. To meet the demands of domestic electric power, China may appropriately purchase capacity for constructing NPP. As to the purchasing of capacity for the purpose of constructing NPP, the main criteria for the selection of the type of unit are safety, reliability and economy, the following factors should take into consider ation those are compatibility, independence in operation, maintenance and home made nuclear fuel • etc.. 4. 2. 3 Taking 300 MWe Standard Loop PWR as the Main, While Developing and Studying the Advanced Reactor Technology According to the technical line for developing PWR NPP, determined early in the 1980s, China took 300 MWe standard PWR loop as the first generation unit for home-made equipment of nuclear power. Through the construction of the sec ond phase of Qinshan project, we will master the technology of 600 MWe class nu clear power unit. On this basis, we will construct 1000 MWe class nuclear power unit through "taking ourselves as the dominant factor, taking cooperation between China and foreign countries”, and master the relevant technology. We gradually accomplish standardization and serialization for the production of 300 MWe, 600 MWe and 1000 MWe class NPPs. For further improving the safety and economy of nuclear power ♦ by reference to the development direction of the international nuclear power unit, on the basis of the first generation unit type, we study and develop the advanced unit for the preparation of changing the unit type in the beginning of next century. At present, China has basically completed the design of overall programme of the advanced type PWR AC-600, and strives for completing the preliminary design and preliminary safety analysis before or after 2000, and tackles the key technology. For solving the issue on the nuclear fuel supply in the long-term development of nuclear power, reducing the consumption of nature uranium resource in the de velopment of nuclear power, solving the issue on accumulation of long-lived ac tinides, and studying and developing the technology of fast breeder reactor, we strive for construction of 65 MWt experimental fast reactor before or after 2000. At the same time, we also make the tracking research on the nuclear fusion tech nology for creating a new condition of the application of nuclear energy in the mid dle of the next century, 4. 2. 4 Nuclear Fuel Based on the Domestic Production and Supply The nuclear fuel cycle industry should go through the technology introduction and technological transformation in order to draw the main link of production 29 technology close to the international advanced level , to suit the production ability to the development scale of nuclear power and gradually to have the international com petition ability of the products cost. • In the uranium geological exploration, it should expand the old mining area, at the same time develop the new mining area. The emphasis is to prospect the uranium ore that is economically exploitable and can be supplied for dissolving and leaching and also to prospect the big mine and rich mine. • The production of uranium mining and metallurgy should insistently per form the principle of takeing ground leaching and heap leaching as the main, com bining heap with metallurgy which forms the new type production system. • The production of low-enrichment uranium should adhere to the principle of taking diffusion technology as transition, centrifugal technology as the direction and tracking laser technology. • The production of nuclear fuel element should absorb and introduce foreign advanced technology, in order that the production of fuel element of home-made 300 MWe, 600 MWe, and 1000 MWe class PWR and HWR comes up to the in ternational standards. • The spent fuel elements should be timely reprocessed in order that the fis sionable material can be reused to reduce the consumption of natural uranium re source and creat the conditions for the development of fast breeder reactor. About in 2000, we shall establish the pilot plant for spent fuel reprocessing. • Nuclear waste should be timely arranged for the necessary treatment and disposal, in order to protect the environment in good status. It will draw up a uni fied plan to construct 4 nuclear waste disposal sites in north-west, South China, East China and south-west. 4. 3 Envisagement for the Programme of Long-Term and Medium Term Devel opment of Nuclear Power 4. 3.1 The Strategic Goal for the Development of Nuclear Power in China The development of nuclear power is to adjust China energy structure, to mit igate the electric power-supply, to relax the tense of communication and to avoid the constraint of the volume of environment protection. It is an important strategic measure for continuous, fast and healthy development of national economy. The above-mentioned issues are specially urgent to solve in the south-east coastal areas in China where the economy is fast developed, and they are the key areas for developing nuclear power in the end of this century and in the early of next 30 century. According to this strategy of development , China nuclear power will go through three stages, i. e. beginning, appropriate development, and steady growth. (1) It is in the Beginning Stage Before 2000 Through the construction of a certain scale of NPP, in combination with pur chasing capacity and introducing foreign advanced technology and experiences, we basically master the technology of design, fabrication, construction, erection, commissioning, operation, item management, backing services, etc. of nuclear power, and make great efforts to realize the design of the first generation PWR u- nit with the initiative in our own hands , the equipment of 600 MWe unit are basi cally home-made and the supply of a large sum of equipment and common raw ma terial are localization. (2) It is the Appropriate Development Stage in 2000—2010 Through the batch production, we strenghten the home-made equipment, take the rolling method to construct NPPs, thus the first generation of NPP in China will form a considerable scale in the south-east coastal areas. At the same time, the development of the first generation of advanced unit will achieve break through progress, we completely master the technology, and make the preparation for updating and upgrading of nuclear power unit. (3) It is the Steady Growth Stage After 2010 Through the connection with the first generation of NPP, we gradually spread the advanced type of nuclear power unit to ensure that the installed capacity of nu clear power will be continuously and steadily increased, so that the nuclear power will play a decisive role in the south-east coastal areas. In inland some provinces where are undersupplying of electric power will also develop NPPs in succession, thus the nuclear power will play a great role in China electric power industry. 4. 3. 2 Development Goal, Scale and Layout (1) Developemnt Goal Before or after 2000, through technology introduction and technological trans formation, we shall basically master the complete technology of 600 MWe PWR and realize the design with the initiative in our own hands, and a large sum of e- quipment are home-made. In early of the next century, we have ability to con struct 600 MWe PWR NPP in batch, at the same time, we gradually raise the a- bility for constructing the home-made 1000 MWe class and 600 MWe advanced type units. About in 2010, we strive for the home-made 1000 MWe class advanced 31 type units getting into the market. (2) Consturction Scale Before 2000, on the basis of the operation of 2100 MWe installed capacity, we strive for the under construction scale of 6600^10600 MWe. Among them there are the second phase of Qinshan 2 X 600 MWe project, 2 X 1000 MWe Ling Ao NPP, the third phase of Qinshan 2X700 MWe project (heavy water reactor) and 2X1000 MWe Liaoning NPP. The striving items of 4000 MWe. In 2010 the in stalled capacity of nuclear power will reach 20000 ~ 25000 MWe, accounted for about 4%~5/'o of the total installed capacity of electric power of the whole country in those years. In 2020 the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 40000~ 50000 MWe, accounted for about 6%~7% of the total installed capacity of the whole country in those years. (3) Layout According to the strategy for the development of nuclear power, the south east coastal areas of China are the key areas for the developemnt of nuclear power in the end of this century and in the early of the next century. The layout of nucle ar power should insist on the principle of many units for one plant. Firstly of all the existing sites of Qinshan and Daya Bay NPPs should be fully used , to arrange some units at the same place, and take the preliminarily selected site as the key place for the arrangement of next nuclear power plant. The follow-up proposed NPP should be prior arranged at sites standing for selection in areas of Shandong, Fujian, Zhe jiang and Jiangsu. At present, there are 15 provinces and cities of the whole country which have clearly put forward the programmes and plans for constructing NPPs. Some of them have preliminarily selected the site. Following the further development of nu clear power, the layout of site will gradually expand to the provinces of Hubei , Hu nan , Jiangxi , Sichuan, etc. In south-west areas where are abundant in hydropow er resource, but lack of coal resource. They are suitable to construct NPP as the ba sic load power plant, and to play the role of peak modulation for hydropower, thus it forms the optimum disposition of electric power system. 4. 4 Relating to the Analysis for the Economy of Nuclear Power 4.1.1 General Situation of the World Nuclear Power Economy The so called analysis for the economy of nuclear power generally rafers to comprehensive dynamic analysis of all economic and financial target between the gained benefits and the capital invested in the whole course ranging from the earlier 32 stage of project design , equipment manufacture* construction, erection, start-up and commissioning of NPP and in the services of the stage of commercial opera tion, up to project decommissioning. Generally it puts emphasis on research and dynamic analysis on the targets of the construction cost of the project, the cost of electricity generating, the electricity price for grid connection, fees for decommis sioning etc.. Due to the strict quality requirements for the equipment manufacture, civil construction and installation, there are many safety facilities in the project, and al so due to the long construction period, so the construction cost of the NPP is gener ally higher than the same capacity of coal-fired power plant by 1. 2^2. 0-fold. But due to the low operation cost of nuclear power, its cost of electricity generating is not higher than coal-power. The IAEA had made statistics and comparison for the operation conditions of nuclear power and thermal power in some countries in the 198CTs, the conclusion is "The cost of electricity generating of NPP whose con struction cost is low, is 20% lower than that of thermal power plant of the same country, the cost of electricity generating of the NPP whose construction cost is high, is 5 % higher than that of thermal power plant of the same country". It can be seen that nuclear power is a competitive power, compared with the thermal power. Generally speaking, the NPPs which are now in service has got a firm foothold. Following the accumulation of experience, the operation performance of NPP has continuously improved. In 1994 the average load factor of NPP had reached 70.2%, the load factor of one-fourth of NPP exceeded 80%. At present, all countries still do their best to improve the management, to extend the lifetime of NPP, and further to raise the economy of NPP. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has made a prediction of the cost of nuclear power of NPP, which will be put into operation after 2000 in 10 countries, such as France, Belgium, Canada, etc.. The results show that the cost of nuclear power is about 30% lower than that of coal-power, putting into production at the same period. 4. 4. 2 General Situation of China Nuclear Power Economy As viewed from the domestic conditions of China, the construction cost of the first phase of Qinshan project was 1. 4-fold of the same scale of coal-power unit in the same period, and the constrution cost of Daya Bay NPP was a little higher, however, the economic benefits of these two NPPs are good in the whole lifetime. The first phase of Qinshan project carries out the repayment of capital with interest and under the condition of reasonable float of electricity price, its repayment rate of 33 investment is lower than the items of coal-power. Daya Bay NPP is a China-Hong Kong joint venture item which was completely introduced, and it was predicted that during the 20-years joint venture period, the Chinese party can earn net prof its of more than 2000 million US dollars. After the termination of joint venture pe riod , because the repayment of debt and depreciation shall have been completed, so it will be a big decrease in the cost of electricity generating and the benefits will be even more considerable. In conclusion, the home-made nuclear power unit has competitive power, as compared with the imported equipment of coal-power unit, and the introduced NPP also has the ability of self-development. Table 19 is a list of the comparison of predicted cost of electricity generating between nuclear power and coal-power unit. Table 20 is a list of the comparison of average cost of electrici ty generating during the whole life-time (30 years) of nuclear power and coal-pow er units. Table 19 Comparison of the Expected Generation Cost Between Nuclear and Coal-Fired Unit, US Cent/ (kW • h) of Jan. 1, 1994 Average Costs in Repayment Average Costs in the Expected Item of 15 Years Lifetime of 30 Years Costs Capital O&M Fuels Total Capital O&M Fuels Total

Coal-Fired Imported 600 MW 1.118 0. 567 1.546 3. 231 0. 566 0. 566 1.671 2. 793 3. 644

Units FPD 600 MW 1. 370 0. 652 1. 615 3. 610 0. 693 0. 614 1.745 3. 052 3. 982

2X600 MW PWR 1. 606 0. 726 0. 691 3. 023 0. 830 0. 706 0. 691 2. 227 2. 906 ...... Nuclear 2X700 MWCANDU ••• Power 2X100 MW Russia Units VVER 2X100 MW France 2. 882 0. 841 0. 653 4. 376 1.489 0. 817 0. 653 2. 959 3. 861 PWR Note, In US dollars on Jan. 1, 2003 and assuming the escalation rate at 3%/Year.

Table 20 Ratio of Average Generation Cost of Nuclear to Coal-Fired in the Lifetime (30 Years)

Nuclear/Coal-Fired Local Coal-Fired Units Imported Coal-Fired Units Imported FPD Units

Local 600 WM PWR 0. 86 0. 80 0. 73 Heavy Water Reactor ...... Russia VVER ...... France PWR 1.14 1.06 0. 97 It is specially worthy to point out that the above only carries out the preliminary analysis in viewed from single economy. However, in viewed from the 34 development , from the value criteria system for developing nuclear power, i. e. if we bring the nuclear power into macro “ economic-energy-environment ” system ( “3E” system), it can be predicted that the competitive power of nuclear power will continuously raise, following the continuous improvement of nuclear power technology and achieving normalization, serialization and home-made equipment, and following for the protection of environment, the coal-power should meet the strict requirements of dust removal and desulfation and the reasonable adjustment of coal price, including the transportation capacity.

REFERENCES

1 China Statistical Yearbook-1995. Compiled by the State Statistical Bureau, the People's Re public of China. Beijing: China Statistical Press, 1995 2 China Energy Statistical Yearbook-1991. Beijing: China Statistical Press, 1992 3 The Outline of the Ninth Five-Year Plan for National Economy and Social Development and the Long-Term Target for the Year 2010, the People's Republic of China. Endorsed by the Fourth Plenary Session of the Eighth NPC in March 17 1996. Beijing: the People Press. 4 China's Agenda 21-White Paper on China's Populatiion, Environment and Development in the 21st Centrury. Beijing: China Environment science Press, 1994 5 China Environment Status Bulletin-1995. Compiled by the State Bureau of Environment Protection. 6 Regulations on the Nuclear Safety of the People's Republic of China. Compiled by the Na tional Nuclear Safety Administration. Beijing; China Nuclear Information Centre, 1996 7 Energy Statistical Yearbook-1992. United Nations 8 Strategy Bases. Beijing; China Social Science Press, March 1986 9 Study on Strategic Target of China's Environment Protection in 2020. Beijing: China Envi ronment Science Press, 1993 10 IAEA Bulletin. Vol. 3 and 4, 1995 11 Report on China's Energy Development. Beijing: Economic Management Press, 1994 12 Market Economy and Strategy of China's Energy Development. Compiled by China Ener gy Research Society. Beijing; Atomic Energy Press, 1992 13 Analysis on Potential Economy of Nuclear Power Development in Our Country. Published on Policy Discussion Vol. 13, 1995, China Institute of Nuclear Industry Economics (CINIE). 14 Analysis and Planning of Fujian Energy System in 2010. Oct. 1994, Compiled by China Institute of Nuclear Industry Economics. Planning Commission of Fujian Province, Eco nomics Information Centre of Fujian Province.

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